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Cholly
07-06-2022, 04:08 PM
https://paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/economic-indicators-wagering-down-again-in-june-average-field-size-continues-to-show-declines/

the little guy
07-06-2022, 04:19 PM
The numbers were down in June because the Belmont Stakes handle was down over $12 million. It's fairly simple.

The Arbiter
07-06-2022, 07:17 PM
Is there a particular reason Belmont was down that much? I get there was no TC in play, but, same deal last year.

judehaz
07-06-2022, 07:30 PM
A bit of a rant incoming. This got longer than I intended, but it is my thoughtful considerations on our favorite sport.

These small statistical differences are insignificant compared to the myriad combination of both positive and negative factors caused by COVID, IMO. That's a cocktail that is not easily unpacked outside of an academic paper and accompanying statistical analysis.

As far as contraction, horse racing is best off being non-reliant on factors outside of the industry like state subsidies and, even, dare I say, non-racing gambling revenue. A healthier, smaller sport could very well be better for us horseplayers and the product on the track in general.

I realize that less tracks and less races and less horses means less jobs, which is a very real negative outcome that affects people and their families. We need to figure out how to offset that impact with things like support services for backstretch workers, which could include both public and private funding support.

The industry has to evolve and innovate more quickly to the rapidly changing gambling market. Just look at the typical demographic of any OTB or simulcast center at a track. The sport needs to do more to attract the billions of dollars that DraftKings, FanDuel and the others are pulling in.

We also need a national governing body for horse racing, or at least a national horse racing commissioner that has real power over state commissions. Imagine if the AFC North had CFL rules like only three downs and 110-yard fields and goalposts in the endzone, but the NFC South had the typical NFL rules.

Bonkers, but that's what we see in horse racing every day.

the little guy
07-06-2022, 07:52 PM
Is there a particular reason Belmont was down that much? I get there was no TC in play, but, same deal last year.

Field size that day surely played into it and the theoretical post pandemic, sort of, year likely saw gains that in some ways weren't sustainable.

HPFridays
07-06-2022, 08:24 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQfb3InOwGs

MJC922
07-06-2022, 08:35 PM
While we're spit-balling I'll throw my hat into the ring and say the people who had $200 per month in throwaway money probably don't have it anymore with the price of everything going up. I know for me personally I'm paying $200 more per month at the pump, plus the cost of food went up substantially and it wasn't cheap before. I put $50 to win on the Belmont, couldn't stay out of that at 5-2. On the other side of the spectrum you have the people with plenty of money who are probably looking to finally travel again. I think that plays into gains that probably weren't sustainable angle. Priorities may have shifted temporarily. A lot of people will be back eventually if wages can catch up with inflation. 2% raises and 8% inflation, not a rosy outlook atm.

westernmassbob
07-06-2022, 08:39 PM
This is one quote from that article :

“Pari-mutuel wagering experts consider field size to be a key factor in betting volume.”

Umm hello you don’t need to be an expert to figure that one out. Less entries means less wagering. It’s not rocket science.

I’ve already brought this up before but I guarantee that Saratoga has smaller fields then years past. Do I like it ? No. If it rains which we surely know will happen then that means even smaller fields because for whatever reason trainers love to scratch at Scratchatoga.

Another thing not mentioned in that article that I feel is more important then most is on track attendance.The more on track attendance bleeds the worse off things will get. This sport will never survive on just simulcasting alone. Numbers don’t lie ....look at Belmont’s on track attendance this year.

westernmassbob
07-06-2022, 08:47 PM
While we're spit-balling I'll throw my hat into the ring and say the people who had $200 per month in throwaway money probably don't have it anymore with the price of everything going up. I know for me personally I'm paying $200 more per month at the pump, plus the cost of food went up substantially and it wasn't cheap before. I put $50 to win on the Belmont, couldn't stay out of that at 5-2. On the other side of the spectrum you have the people with plenty of money who are probably looking to finally travel again. I think that plays into gains that probably weren't sustainable angle. Priorities may have shifted temporarily. A lot of people will be back eventually if wages can catch up with inflation. 2% raises and 8% inflation, not a rosy outlook atm.

There are people( probably most) on here who actually believe Saratoga’s attendance and on track wagering won’t be down this year. Inflation is a recipe for disaster and history has already shown us what the outcome will be. Hopefully for everyone’s sake it’s as minimal as possible but to think there will be zero impact from the economy is preposterous.

classhandicapper
07-07-2022, 08:46 AM
It will be interesting to see the handle numbers if we end up in a deep recession with job losses as the Fed keeps tightening to fight inflation. I see very little analysis out there from "experts" that tries to control for the impact of the economy and jobs. IMO, a lot of the time positive results are just cyclical upticks in the secular decline.

Robert Fischer
07-07-2022, 09:21 AM
Not to be abjectly positive, but some very good racing this weekend. Some good horses, and some full fields with multiple contending parties.

Cholly
07-07-2022, 01:40 PM
Recent past implies that a robust economy may help out Breeders via higher sales prices, but it’s difficult to make any correlation between economic conditions and racing handle. The favorable conditions (low unemployment, surging stock market) of the past twelve years certainly haven’t been any great driver of handle. In any case, economic conditions are something the horse race industry has no control over.

What the industry could do is address this structural disconnect: larger fields increase revenue for the tracks, but in the current system, larger fields are a punitive burden on Owners & Trainers. The industry needs to inject some flexibility into purse sizes and how they’re distributed so that significant percentages of the increased revenue that results from larger fields finds its way to the connections of the horses running 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th.

Onesome
07-07-2022, 02:47 PM
Field sizes and handle dont matter to these people. As long as purses and auction numbers continue to rise, f*** everyone else.

the little guy
07-07-2022, 03:03 PM
Handle could well be down at Saratoga, last year's handle was a record by a substantial margin, but the economy is low as far as a possible factor for that. Weather will always be the biggest issue. Lose two Saturdays to rain and you can't be up. Field size is clearly the second biggest factor. Those two variables are also linked.

If field size is the same as 2021, and the weather is comparable, we will likely do similar numbers. Those, however, are big ifs.

classhandicapper
07-07-2022, 03:22 PM
Handle could well be down at Saratoga, last year's handle was a record by a substantial margin, but the economy is low as far as a possible factor for that. Weather will always be the biggest issue. Lose two Saturdays to rain and you can't be up. Field size is clearly the second biggest factor. Those two variables are also linked.

If field size is the same as 2021, and the weather is comparable, we will likely do similar numbers. Those, however, are big ifs.

The small ups and and downs in the economy don't matter and probably won't factor at Saratoga this year at all, but the 2008-2011 period was a disaster for racing overall when we were in a deep recession and jobs hadn't really recovered. We still haven't gotten back to those peak levels. To me that suggests we are still in a large secular decline that was somewhat masked in recent years by the recovery from that recession period.

I haven't seen data going way back, but jobs have to matter, just not right now.

That's why I am very interested to see what happens in the next serious economic decline (that we may be getting close to with the Fed tightening). If it's as bad as the last one and the impact on handle as bad, a lot of tracks are going to be in trouble.

https://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=8

westernmassbob
07-07-2022, 08:32 PM
Handle could well be down at Saratoga, last year's handle was a record by a substantial margin, but the economy is low as far as a possible factor for that. Weather will always be the biggest issue. Lose two Saturdays to rain and you can't be up. Field size is clearly the second biggest factor. Those two variables are also linked.

If field size is the same as 2021, and the weather is comparable, we will likely do similar numbers. Those, however, are big ifs.

Can’t NYRA bring back the purse enhancement program they once had to prevent scratching due to weather?

Would it make sense to offer some sort of guaranteed purse for running on an off track day ? The additional revenue from the mutuels would seem to more then cover the extra purse money.

Al Gobbi
07-07-2022, 11:36 PM
The small ups and and downs in the economy don't matter and probably won't factor at Saratoga this year at all, but the 2008-2011 period was a disaster for racing overall when we were in a deep recession and jobs hadn't really recovered. We still haven't gotten back to those peak levels. To me that suggests we are still in a large secular decline that was somewhat masked in recent years by the recovery from that recession period.

I haven't seen data going way back, but jobs have to matter, just not right now.

That's why I am very interested to see what happens in the next serious economic decline (that we may be getting close to with the Fed tightening). If it's as bad as the last one and the impact on handle as bad, a lot of tracks are going to be in trouble.

https://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=8

Foal crops never recovered from the 2008 economic crisis (while pretty much everything else in the world did) and has only gotten worse - the big decline in 2021 is really going to impact next year and if we are heading into another economic disaster it will cripple racing unless some drastic changes occur

Parkview_Pirate
07-08-2022, 03:54 AM
Foal crops never recovered from the 2008 economic crisis (while pretty much everything else in the world did) and has only gotten worse - the big decline in 2021 is really going to impact next year and if we are heading into another economic disaster it will cripple racing unless some drastic changes occur

IF we are heading into another economic disaster? I'm not sure I would use the word disaster, but a pretty steep economic decline is baked pretty firmly in the cake, IMHO. Toss in the illogical machinations of the political class and their response, and it's pretty obvious it's going to remain bumpy for a while. Furthermore, I hardly think the Republicans will ride in for the rescue, though many believe the Democrats are the root cause of our woes. The root cause is actually higher energy prices and the twilight of the American Empire.

Like many economic systems, it takes some time for effects to filter through the system. Smaller foal crops from 2008 and lockdowns from 2020 drove some of the small owners out. Increasing prices for operations and .gov/animal rights interference have had negative effects, especially in California. Uncle Sam adding $4T to the money supply during the pandemic is now being reflected by stagflation, with essentials up sharply, and discretionary items stable or stagnant. Racing is part of the entertainment industry, and most bettors use discretionary funds for wagering. Many are caught in a bind where eating out is off the table, let alone blowing money at the track.

For more serious players, field sizes and razor sharp odds with little room for error make the game tougher than ever. And it's not just field size, but rather competitive quality of the entrants. Even at Sha Tin, a 14 horse field may have a half dozen horses with virtually no chance, making it essentially a much smaller field - and that's reflected in the odds. Racing will continue to undergo contraction, as some of the whales find rebates discontinued or their methods no longer profitable. It's a death spiral, and it has a ways to go to bottom out.

For folks working in racing, it would nice if .gov sponsored some agricultural programs for the little guys and families where a decent job with sustainable farming, ranching or permaculture was promoted. To have an alternative and viable career path for the decline ahead would be a perk. I don't know if that would ever happen, but right now .gov is in the pockets of the elites, and wealth and capital is being siphoned off to a very small group of people.

MJC922
07-08-2022, 10:50 AM
IF we are heading into another economic disaster? I'm not sure I would use the word disaster, but a pretty steep economic decline is baked pretty firmly in the cake, IMHO. Toss in the illogical machinations of the political class and their response, and it's pretty obvious it's going to remain bumpy for a while. Furthermore, I hardly think the Republicans will ride in for the rescue, though many believe the Democrats are the root cause of our woes. The root cause is actually higher energy prices and the twilight of the American Empire.

Like many economic systems, it takes some time for effects to filter through the system. Smaller foal crops from 2008 and lockdowns from 2020 drove some of the small owners out. Increasing prices for operations and .gov/animal rights interference have had negative effects, especially in California. Uncle Sam adding $4T to the money supply during the pandemic is now being reflected by stagflation, with essentials up sharply, and discretionary items stable or stagnant. Racing is part of the entertainment industry, and most bettors use discretionary funds for wagering. Many are caught in a bind where eating out is off the table, let alone blowing money at the track.

For more serious players, field sizes and razor sharp odds with little room for error make the game tougher than ever. And it's not just field size, but rather competitive quality of the entrants. Even at Sha Tin, a 14 horse field may have a half dozen horses with virtually no chance, making it essentially a much smaller field - and that's reflected in the odds. Racing will continue to undergo contraction, as some of the whales find rebates discontinued or their methods no longer profitable. It's a death spiral, and it has a ways to go to bottom out.

For folks working in racing, it would nice if .gov sponsored some agricultural programs for the little guys and families where a decent job with sustainable farming, ranching or permaculture was promoted. To have an alternative and viable career path for the decline ahead would be a perk. I don't know if that would ever happen, but right now .gov is in the pockets of the elites, and wealth and capital is being siphoned off to a very small group of people.

Good stuff.

Bustin Stones
07-08-2022, 11:11 AM
But, is it possible that tbred racing has done nothing wrong and is doing nothing wrong?
The number of casinos continues to grow. The number of competing forms of gambling with strong advertising behind them continues to grow.
It could all be a factor of dilution of gambling dollars. And what has racing done differently to lure money away from this tidal wave of competition?
Even the networks are programming analysts who do nothing but gab about betting opportunities that don't involve racing.
Most grandstands are pretty empty. Racing is generally not considered a destination activity like it was. The charm is lost when we don't attend live racing. It's reduced to a wager. Nothing wrong with that except it's a lost former advantage.
And casino owners certainly aren't going to invest in a product that would require additional subsidy. They'd prefer that the required subsidy cease to exist entirely.
Maybe the question should not be what went wrong. Maybe the question should be what is being tried to better compete with newer competition. It seems like whatever that is should be done on a national scale.

the little guy
07-20-2022, 08:51 AM
There are people( probably most) on here who actually believe Saratoga’s attendance and on track wagering won’t be down this year. Inflation is a recipe for disaster and history has already shown us what the outcome will be. Hopefully for everyone’s sake it’s as minimal as possible but to think there will be zero impact from the economy is preposterous.

Opening weekend handle was up 18% from 2021 ( over $106 million for the first dour days ) and attendance was up 10%. One weekend does not make a meet but I was shocked you didn't post these numbers.

Don't worry, no matter how wrong you are, Classhandicapper will have your back....so there's that.

westernmassbob
07-20-2022, 08:59 AM
Opening weekend handle was up 18% from 2021 ( over $106 million for the first dour days ) and attendance was up 10%. One weekend does not make a meet but I was shocked you didn't post these numbers.

Don't worry, no matter how wrong you are, Classhandicapper will have your back....so there's that.

Just like talking about jockey standings on Fox after the first weekend you prematurely bring up attendance. There is plenty of time for a correction but as i stated i hope any loss is minimal. Best wishes for your picks for today.

the little guy
07-20-2022, 10:01 AM
Just like talking about jockey standings on Fox after the first weekend you prematurely bring up attendance. There is plenty of time for a correction but as i stated i hope any loss is minimal. Best wishes for your picks for today.

I'm not the producer, genius, and talk about what they tell us to talk about.

Tough first weekend for you rooting against my picks. Don't worry, I'll suck plenty of days, so don't take the good days too hard.

Given your moronic predictions, you should have posted this weekend's numbers. The people that run the Horseshoe said Saturday was the busiest day they have EVER had, including Travers. As I tried to explain to you, only weather can, and possibly will, ruin our numbers. Comparable weather to 2021 and we will easily surpass those record numbers.

Keep doing your rain dances. You aren't fooling anybody....except Classhandicapper, but that's hardly an achievement.

PaceAdvantage
07-20-2022, 10:17 AM
Saucy little guy = BEST little guy

classhandicapper
07-20-2022, 11:25 AM
Keep doing your rain dances. You aren't fooling anybody....except Classhandicapper, but that's hardly an achievement.

Go back to Twitter and keep making a fool of yourself arguing against wagering math. You are embarrassing yourself, but you just keep digging in instead of letting it die or trying to find a face saving out (which wouldn't even be all that difficult if you understood the issue well).

Get back to me on the handle situation during the next recession and you'll see I'm right about that too. Recessions are tough to time. The implications are not. I posted the data.

Brisk Urging
07-20-2022, 12:36 PM
Go back to Twitter and keep making a fool of yourself arguing against wagering math. You are embarrassing yourself, but you just keep digging in instead of letting it die or trying to find a face saving out (which wouldn't even be all that difficult if you understood the issue well).

Get back to me on the handle situation during the next recession and you'll see I'm right about that too. Recessions are tough to time. The implications are not. I posted the data.


The debate is getting old.

classhandicapper
07-20-2022, 12:48 PM
The debate is getting old.

It's not my debate.

I know who's more right, but on some level they are talking past each other. I could bridge the gap and explain both sides better, but some people have a tendency to make things personal. Then it becomes like politics in the US now. Two sides are dug in, attacking each other, and all hope for better ticket construction lost.

Robert Fischer
07-20-2022, 02:27 PM
It's not my debate.

I know who's more right, but on some level they are talking past each other. I could bridge the gap and explain both sides better, but some people have a tendency to make things personal. Then it becomes like politics in the US now. Two sides are dug in, attacking each other, and all hope for better ticket construction lost.

apt comparison

ScottJ
07-20-2022, 04:56 PM
Go back to Twitter and keep making a fool of yourself arguing against wagering math. You are embarrassing yourself, but you just keep digging in instead of letting it die or trying to find a face saving out (which wouldn't even be all that difficult if you understood the issue well). First post on this board and just like to deal with facts in horse racing when possible. On this post, many folks know Andy's alma mater is Lehigh however few know his undergraduate major. Before questioning his mathematical training, you might want to get the background on that one.

classhandicapper
07-20-2022, 05:48 PM
First post on this board and just like to deal with facts in horse racing when possible. On this post, many folks know Andy's alma mater is Lehigh however few know his undergraduate major. Before questioning his mathematical training, you might want to get the background on that one.

I know he was an options trader.

The debates in horse racing should be about figures, trips, biases, distance, surface etc.. and the fair odds on each horse. After that, it's a matter of choosing the right pool, right bet size, and right bet structure to maximize your results given your opinions on the races, bankroll, and psychological makeup.

The fact that people are still debating some of the basics of which pool to go into and how to structure their bets is telling you the math of betting is not well understood. That includes some very sharp handicappers. IMO, that's because most of us were trained poorly and have flawed "survival" instincts. I should know because I turned years where I showed flat bet profits to win into losing years on multiple occasions in my youth. Then I started learning how to bet.

ITP could use an improved beside manor when offering insights into bet structure to people that are making mistakes, but IMO he's got the right approach.

Someone on Twitter mentioned black belt and white belt ticket structure.

Even a white belt player can improve their results with better ticket structure.

the little guy
07-20-2022, 06:41 PM
First post on this board and just like to deal with facts in horse racing when possible. On this post, many folks know Andy's alma mater is Lehigh however few know his undergraduate major. Before questioning his mathematical training, you might want to get the background on that one.

He's a complete sycophantic clown. Literally spends his days sucking up to losers all over the internet. I called his BS so he says dumb things about me.

I'm good with it. He's a buffoon.

the little guy
07-20-2022, 06:46 PM
apt comparison

It's not an apt comparison. However, him thinking he could explain it might be the funniest thing ever posted on this board.

One guy claims he knows the only way to play and I claim there are numerous ways to play, and it's up to the individual to decide what is best for him and her.

That's the discussion in a nutshell.

I do think it's super nice of you to be the only person here that ever responds to Classsycophant. It really is a good deed for the day.

MJC922
07-20-2022, 08:49 PM
Not sure what was said on twitter but classhandicapper is a very knowledgeable handicapper IMO. I value the opinions of several posters in this thread quite a bit fwiw.

classhandicapper
07-21-2022, 08:22 AM
He's a complete sycophantic clown. Literally spends his days sucking up to losers all over the internet. I called his BS so he says dumb things about me.

I'm good with it. He's a buffoon.

I love the sport and challenge of trying to beat this game as much as anyone. My results suggest I have something to contribute to the conversation. So I'll discuss gambling issues with anyone I think has important things to say or that loves the sport as much a I do.

There are very very few people I can't get along with. You are one of them. I'm not going to rehash what you did while I was employed at DRF and embarrass you further. I already did that. I'll give you advice instead.

If you didn't have a giant but fragile ego and actually listened to some of the criticisms of your thinking, you'd be an even better player than you are.

If you didn't attack everyone that criticizes NYRA or that disagrees with you, fewer people would dislike you.

classhandicapper
07-21-2022, 08:41 AM
It's not an apt comparison. However, him thinking he could explain it might be the funniest thing ever posted on this board.

One guy claims he knows the only way to play and I claim there are numerous ways to play, and it's up to the individual to decide what is best for him and her.

That's the discussion in a nutshell.



Most people in the industry are giving advice to players that are struggling to win that makes it more likely they'll create some combinations that are EV- and possibly even turn a small winner into a loser.

One guy is pointing to the flaws of that common way of thinking and trying to help people get over the top and win.

Admittedly, ITP does not have a great bedside manor and imo would do better to not criticize people in the industry when trying to help. That doesn't make what he's saying (if you actually listen to it) wrong.

The difference between winning and losing for some players is not their handicapping. It's their betting. There's no value logic to the pool they choose to go into or value math in how they structure their tickets. I know that because when I started to understand it better I started getting better results.

And yes, I'm no black belt guru at betting. I'll leave that to the computer guys. But I could explain a lot about pool selection and bet structure that would improve most people's results.

classhandicapper
07-21-2022, 08:49 AM
Not sure what was said on twitter but classhandicapper is a very knowledgeable handicapper IMO. I value the opinions of several posters in this thread quite a bit fwiw.

Apparently agreeing with a few people on horizontal betting that unfortunately criticize his thinking in an overly harsh way is a problem. The funniest part of it is that I typically qualify my comments by defending his thinking for Win and Exacta wagering and making it clear he obviously understands the goal.

Robert Fischer
07-21-2022, 08:53 AM
wow, Hi Andy,

i understand it's a jab at Classhandicapper (and pros/cons, I consider ClassHandicapper a friend:ThmbUp: from a long time message board), but I'm sort of nervously grinning and doing some projecting here as I type this post (I've even had a coffee for this 'Fishercophant' response, how sad?)...

I have typed much dumb stuff and hopefully not unintentionally offensive stuff from time-to-time PA/Twitter/FB/Reddit/etc.... anyone playing more than occasional entertainment style has an ego and I'm not immune... Add in Trauma stuff/overwhelming life stuff (diag PTSD) has been weird on me as well as significant physical health cardiac/connective-tissue issues.
I believe you asked about my absence several years ago, when it turned otu to be a laptop breakdown. Was nice gesture that I remember with respect until you dismissed a speed horse one day that made me lose a Pick4. kidding.

Anyway, for whatever reasons, you and I have Not discussed a race probably even indirectly in a few years. I assumed someething had been offensive and you had to place me on 'Mute'.
Allowing for how busy you are, and the several hats you wear, 1000% understand that Twitter, (or even P.A.) isn't about you being my free tutor, unpaid syndicate advisor and industry insider who always finds time to reply.
(:coffee: what a coffee!?)

I hope I've stated it clearly that I have respect for you. During the slow(er) part of the year, I would greatly enjoy some racing discussion of the basics as well as juicy horseplayer stuff. Beneath the awkward slow sounding discussion voice, and the mutant 6'9" 195lbs basketball disguise, I have a few opinions, and horse racing mental model stuff, and no need to have my name as the author be it book or media.
Well this is getting weird, but I thought you had me on eternal mute. I met Claudio Gonzales a few days ago and almost asked him to tone down the LOUD speakerphone cellphone act before I realized who he was. Similar shy/embarrass.

As far as the 'debate' or the shots taken on Twitter - Some of these guys have a misery-loves-company 'VIBE'... and before I get to the heart of the debates, there's often misrepresentation/misunderstanding of what you've said (twisted purposefully or ignorantly?, or both).

//:coffee: getting used to this pat of butter, and a dash of coconut oil that my uncle turned me on to...

Side Comment = Not teaching Andy or most of PA anything here = but if you're playing a Multi for a profit


It's not an apt comparison. However, him thinking he could explain it might be the funniest thing ever posted on this board.[/B][/B][/B]

One guy claims he knows the only way to play and I claim there are numerous ways to play, and it's up to the individual to decide what is best for him and her.

That's the discussion in a nutshell.

I do think it's super nice of you to be the only person here that ever responds to Classsycophant. It really is a good deed for the day.

Community service?

the little guy
07-21-2022, 10:35 AM
There are very very few people I can't get along with. You are one of them. I'm not going to rehash what you did while I was employed at DRF and embarrass you further. I already did that. I'll give you advice instead.



I'm not going to address the rest of the BS you spew here, and the very idea that you could give me advice is amusing, but so is most of what you post, but I will address this outright lie.

I did nothing to you when you worked at DRF. The very idea that I even could is laughable. I get that you and various other creeps think you can lie about me all you want, and even get a few other losers to believe it, but since this message board is a theoretical community, it's a little more reprehensible that you would choose to do it here. But, I guess you have seen so many others do it in the corners of the internet that you inhabit, that you thought it would be acceptable here. It isn't. You're even worse than I realized.

I'm proud of the number of good people I have helped in various ways in this industry. I'm not going to let detritus like you try to smear my good name.

Bustin Stones
07-21-2022, 11:12 AM
I'm not sure which side of this debate I fall on, if any, but here goes:
First a caveat: I do not have a degree in math.
I believe that if one is good enough handicapping to make a profit flat betting, then they can supercharge their returns with ticket construction.
I also believe that if one cannot turn a profit flat betting that no amount of ticket construction will turn that into profit.
I'd be interested in anyone's ability to mathematically prove that it can be done.

classhandicapper
07-21-2022, 11:16 AM
I'm not going to address the rest of the BS you spew here, and the very idea that you could give me advice is amusing, but so is most of what you post, but I will address this outright lie.




So now you are saying I am lying when I say I worked at DRF and got called into my boss's office for posts I was making here at PA?

At the time, my job was to help develop and test new versions of Formulator. I was helping people here use Formulator functionality better.

One day my boss called me into his office and said someone sent a critical email to management about me related to my posts on PA and specifically about Formulator. He asked to see what I was writing. I showed him the posts. Fortunately, he laughed, said it was you, and told me to continue. Maybe you don't remember that, but I do and even discussed it with a couple of other employees we both know at the time.

Why would anyone mess with a man's job like that and try to get him into trouble?

Look, we've had disagreements for a long time, but there's a reason I went from respectful disagreement to having the problem with you I have now. It has nothing to do with handicapping, betting, NYRA, or anything else on these dumb message boards. If you are going to insist it wasn't you or you don't even remember it, so be it. It probably meant nothing to you. But I am 100% sure I am not lying and 100% sure what my boss said. I remember it very well.

I might disagree with you on betting or on a race, but I'd never in a million years try to sabotage you at work. Truth be told, I'd rather put that incident behind me too. I'm comfortably retired. I prefer getting along with people. But you make that impossible. You are a public person that can't handle disagreement or criticism of you or NYRA and lash out at people instead.

Tom
07-21-2022, 12:46 PM
I'd be interested in anyone's ability to mathematically prove that it can be done.


I will reveal the magic formula you need,

Let X = $$$ bet
Let Y = $$$ returned

If Y>X, you got it! :)