Which Program has the best CLASS Figure

[ratpack]

I was just wondering your thoughts on this topic because in all the handicapping books I have read they all basically say, (this game is constantly changing and you have to change with it)

My question is which program has the best way to figure Class on a track to track basis.

I feel that the purse structure has changed drastically because of Slots, Statebred money etc. and that is no longer a vaild way to judge class on a track to track basis.

I currently use All in One #6 and they basically devide the money won by the wins and turn that into a number but if you do that, a horse at Mtr which has a track class of 4 can be a better horse class wise than a horse at Saratoga which has a class rating of 10.

Thanks

[BIG HIT]

Hi agree with you and don't have a diffinate answer for you.But although you see place like mnr can have higher purse avg for horse.Rarely see them shipping sar let alone win.The circuit track's for most part haven't changed.Bel ship to sax or sar.The only time have seen big track jump last year and win was great lake's down's in michigan alw horse ship to crc and win.So think for most part still where they they win not how much.Would be there true class in most case's

[kitts]

Average Earnings as class has been around along time. Early on the figure could be inflated by larger statebred purses. Now, with slots, the figure can be further inflated. However, the darn thing works and has worked for many years. There is a tendency to worry about these details, much like a length does not equal a fifth of a second. I am impressed with the "precision" handicapper but feel that the game is so highly impacted by randomness that the K.I.S.S. method is good enough for a good horseplayer.

[andicap]

The program I use, HTR, has a nice figure, called SOR, strength of the race.

I find horses rarely win if their figures in "live" races -- generally good ones as defined by HTR -- are more than three points behind the top one. And longshots with competitive SOR figs do well.

[46zilzal]

My question is which program has the best way to figure Class on a track to track basis.

Horses don't know WHERE they are running. Comparison: Walter Johnson threw very fast NO MATTER WHERE HE THREW THE BALL! Because a horse has certain innate characteristics, it doesn't matter if it runs at Yavapai Downs or Saratoga.

CLASS is a man made, not a horse's characterisitic

[JustRalph]

Ratpack........Great Avatar!

[RXB]

Horses don't know WHERE they are running. Comparison: Walter Johnson threw very fast NO MATTER WHERE HE THREW THE BALL! Because a horse has certain innate characteristics, it doesn't matter if it runs at Yavapai Downs or Saratoga.

CLASS is a man made, not a horse's characterisitic

So, the quality of competition that a horse faces has no bearing on its performance? Walter Johnson's record/ERA would have been the same whether facing minor-leaguers or major-leaguers?

Good luck with those Yavapai shippers at Saratoga.

[ratpack]

Ratpack........Great Avatar!

Thanks,

I have several Ratpack pictures you will be seeing in the future.

[46zilzal]

So, the quality of competition that a horse faces has no bearing on its performance? .
of course it does, but that competition does not alter the speed of said horse no more that the batter would change the speed of Walter Johnson's speed on his pitch..never did say anything about ERA, talking about speed

[46zilzal]

is there any DEFENSE in horse racing....speed is there (to the extent of today's contest) or it is NOT. WHERE a hore displays it's innate speed and stamina is COMPELETLY INDEPENDENT from that locale.

[RXB]

Your analogy of the speed of a thrown baseball and the speed of a racehorse leaves me cold.

The calibre of competition does affect a horse's speed. Put 10k claimers in 20k fields and see how rarely they run to their best times. They are outpaced/exhausted, beaten to holes by quicker and more agile foes, afraid to go through holes that braver counterparts would thread, more easily intimidated by rivals, less willing to rate, more likely to fold when pressured, etc.

It's a race, not a time trial. A horse can't win if it's slow, but factors other than pure running ability are also involved in determining winners of horse races.

Walter Johnson had a lot more going for him as a baseball pitcher than just heat.

And to answer your last question-- yes. The idea of defence is to prevent the opposition from scoring points. Horse racing is not just about getting to the wire as fast as possible, it is also about forcing your opposition to get to the wire more slowly than possible. Example: a good horse's main rival in a race is a need-to-lead speedball who, if left alone, might very well be too fast. However, the beast cracks under any sort of pressure. So, you expend a little more energy early to press the fainthearted frontrunner. Might cost you a little in finishing time, but if it increases the opportunity that you'll win the race, that's what you do. That's also why jockeys try to hem in rival horses, force them very wide, etc.

The idea is to win the race, not to run as fast as possible.

[Tom]

Horses who need the lead, those with 7 or 8 speed points frequently beat the faster velocity horse's early-maybe not al the way to the first call, but enough to impact the pace. They will undoubtedly fade quickly, but they will do whatever it takes to gedt the lead. This kind of horse can really cook the faster front runners if they challenge long enough.
Speed points are meant to identify running style, not speed. the way Quirin set them up they also are impacted by recent form. I am a bit more liberal when I assign them - I don't mind going back farther than the last 4 races to get three races that are close to today's distance and class levels. I also do not award a point for 3rd anymore - only 1st or 2nd postitions.

[46zilzal]

They will undoubtedly fade quickly, .
Depends on the track

[Jeff P]

I'm reminded of the days when I used to play softball. You'd think that game is all about driving the ball a country mile and playing a little defense along the way. But I have to tell you that class tells in softball too, as it probably does in all competitive activities. After an inning or two of play, somtimes you just KNEW that the other team had you outclassed. Sometimes it was the other way around. But it was always there without question. And more often than not, it affected the outcome of the game. It would happen in very subtle ways (at first) which somehow seemed to escalate far farther than you'd have originally thought. A rushed throw by our shortstop who was trying to nail a very fast runner might sail over the first baseman's head. Instead of an out, now we have the leadoff runner standing on second. He's fast, so a base hit probably scores him. Our outfielders all know this and on the next play one of them tries to do something he shouldn't like madly charging in on that grounder up the middle that squirted into center field. Problem is, our outfielder isn't a major leager. There's a reason he's playing league softball on a Wed night instead of playing center field for the NY Yankees. Talent. Or lack of it. In his excitement, he kicks the ball instead of fielding it cleanly. Now, one run is in and there's another guy standing on second. Next thing you know, EVERYBODY on the field is trying too hard. Funny how that first event, an errant throw, leads to a big inning- and probably puts the game out of reach.

Hell, I saw the same thing in the Orange Bowl the other night. It wasn't so much a case of USC playing a great ballgame as it was a case of Oklahoma self destructing. Why? I think they were simply outclassed, knew it, and tried to do too much.

IMHO, same thing happens in horse racing every day.

[46zilzal]

what I was getting at is tha 'cappers often MISS the fact that it is the HORSE'S ability NOT WHERE THEY EXPRESS THAT ABILITY that needs to be the point in it's evaluation. CASE: War Emblem knocks the doors off AT HAWTHORNE and gets no credit in his next start at the HALLOWED Churchill Downs. Did that three year old suddenly get WORSE because he travelled a few hundred miles??

[Bro Ham]

I'm with you, 46.

So, the quality of competition that a horse faces has no bearing on its performance? Walter Johnson's record/ERA would have been the same whether facing minor-leaguers or major-leaguers?

Good luck with those Yavapai shippers at Saratoga.

You're making no distinction between track class and horse class here. I would disagree that the latter transfers to, or is imposed upon, the former. Whether he's based at Yavapai or Saratoga, if a horse is has the innate, intangible characteristics (as well as the physical abilities) that make him a classy horse, he'll succeed (or be competitive) no matter where he runs. Obviously, if your horse is that classy, you wouldn't be keeping him in a barn at Yavapai.

You can certainly assume that Walter Johnson's stats would be inflated versus minor leaguers, because he was a classier animal, but you also have to consider that most frequently even the classiest athlete's performance is 'rated' to meet the level of competition -- he extends the effort necessary to insure that he is victorious, and typically no more. The same is true for horses. The margin of victory in Secretariat's non-Belmont wins averaged 4 and a half lengths, yet in the Belmont he proved himself capable of a much greater degree of dominance. That fact alone should argue against the assumption that class defines the performance. The opposite is true --the performance defines the class. When Secretariat was on his game, he gave as much as was needed to win. Walter Johnson would likely have done the same thing.

[46zilzal]

Thanks

[RXB]

Using Secretariat and Walter Johnson as the reference points makes little sense; precious few horses are Secretariat-like, just as few pitchers are Johnson-like. Jump horses up in class (a move which is generally done only when a horse is in good form) and they tend to run slower times, not faster-- save for the occasional stakes horse coming off an allowance prep, or the modest percentage of horses whose form is on a major upswing.

P.S.: I seriously doubt that Walter Johnson's stats were as dominating in games against the 1920's Yankees as they were against the St. Louis Browns, even if Walter elevated his performance a little when facing Murderers' Row.

[mikeb]

Your analogy of the speed of a thrown baseball and the speed of a racehorse leaves me cold.

The calibre of competition does affect a horse's speed. Put 10k claimers in 20k fields and see how rarely they run to their best times. They are outpaced/exhausted, beaten to holes by quicker and more agile foes, afraid to go through holes that braver counterparts would thread, more easily intimidated by rivals, less willing to rate, more likely to fold when pressured, etc.

It's a race, not a time trial. A horse can't win if it's slow, but factors other than pure running ability are also involved in determining winners of horse races.

Walter Johnson had a lot more going for him as a baseball pitcher than just heat.

And to answer your last question-- yes. The idea of defence is to prevent the opposition from scoring points. Horse racing is not just about getting to the wire as fast as possible, it is also about forcing your opposition to get to the wire more slowly than possible. Example: a good horse's main rival in a race is a need-to-lead speedball who, if left alone, might very well be too fast. However, the beast cracks under any sort of pressure. So, you expend a little more energy early to press the fainthearted frontrunner. Might cost you a little in finishing time, but if it increases the opportunity that you'll win the race, that's what you do. That's also why jockeys try to hem in rival horses, force them very wide, etc.

The idea is to win the race, not to run as fast as possible.

The bottom line is, as far as i'm concerned is "It's not how fast they run,
it's HOW they run fast"........

[First_Place]

"After an inning or two of play, somtimes you just KNEW that the other team had you outclassed. Sometimes it was the other way around. But it was always there without question. And more often than not, it affected the outcome of the game. It would happen in very subtle ways (at first) which somehow seemed to escalate far farther than you'd have originally thought. A rushed throw by our shortstop who was trying to nail a very fast runner might sail over the first baseman's head."

In one word: intimidation. Horses, like humans, are psychologically intimidated by superior opponents and thus, in someway unbeknownst to me, their physical performance is affected (hey, where's Doc Sartin when you need him?).

FP