Homemade Figs-Worth It?

[Hooked on Horses]

Virgin Post...Be Gentle

Since rediscovering racing about a year ago (thank god for the internet), I have toyed with the idea but have yet to take the plunge and create my own variants and figures. For those of you who do make your own numbers, you must see benefits but how much of an edge do you really think they give you?
My dilemma is that to cover more than a few tracks, I'd have to resort to more mechanical means to compute these which would pretty much just mimic what the large data providers like BRIS do. The only way I see to create an edge is to analyze race by race which is hard to do for more than a few tracks. This also seems to limit the benefits.
I also hesitate since it seems that paceline selection and angles are much more important than individual calculations. BRIS numbers seems to do a pretty good job of isolating contenders at which point judgement, intuition and price take over in deciding how to separate them.
I seem to do better when focusing more on these factors and question the extra benefits of trying to improve the accuracy of the numbers. I understand the lower handicapping value of relying on public figures like BRIS but are they really that inferior to the "Do it yourself" variety to warrant the extra effort?
Or is the real value not so much in the numbers but in the insights you learn by analyzing charts to generate variants, etc.?

[Zaf]

I have found that making my own figs and variants was a very time consuming endeavor. There were times when I was lucky enough to uncover some really good plays, but in the end I spent more time making the variants , figures etc. than handicapping and enjoying the races. Now I let people who are better at it than me do it and I am loving the game again. Its a personal decision. Some people love doing that kind of work. Best of Luck.

ZAFONIC

[Light]

I think you answered your own question when you said:

I also hesitate since it seems that paceline selection and angles are much more important than individual calculations.

Of course there are races that are standout key races that a home madeTV would reveal. I think a middle of the road approach of following 1 or 2 tracks with a TV is doable. But several could lead to a stroke.

[Overlay]

For me, it's not so much a question of who makes the figures, but what are the probabilities associated with them. With the numerous sources for figures available today, it's more time-efficient and cost-effective for me to use that information to factor speed into my overall handicapping model. Any incremental handicapping benefits from making my own figures are outweighed for me by the expense and (especially) the time involved. As long as I don't overweigh the significance of the figures so that they become the be-all and end-all of my handicapping, I can assign speed its rightfully proper importance and still get betting value.

[46zilzal]

Not worth it

[pmd62ndst]

WORTH IT

If you have the means (programming/database skills) then take the time and free yourself from having to pay someone else for figures.

PMD

[JackS]

Someone of some stature in a book asked the question-"whats wrong with using the track variant printed in the DRF"...nothing.
It is a number produced using the same methods (in most cases) as variants that are sold privatley.
If you distrust the DRF variant why would you trust a variant you purchased?
Personally, I wouldn't trust any variant to be absolutly true regardless if it were a purchase or the DRF's.
This doesn't mean that I don't pay any attention to the Forms stated Var but I'm not locked into it ether.
When I use the variant in figure making I split the Var in half. This lessens the effect that the Var will have on the final number. Weather doing this accomplishes anything worth while is anybodys guess, but I still do it because I feel the variant is way over used.

[46zilzal]

Unless you stay REGIONALLY, HOME MADE figs are a WASTE of your time...even then .......

[sjk]

Unless you stay REGIONALLY, HOME MADE figs are a WASTE of your time...even then .......

When they are the only numbers you use they better be worth it. I haven't bought a Racing From or program in nearly 10 years.

How you plan to use them has a great bearing on whether the effort is worthwhile.

[JackS]

The goal of the daily variant is to detect changes in track speed. I think that many times it is only detecting faster horses. If the horses that run tomorrow are a little better than the ones that run today, the variant mistakenly precieves the track to be a little faster.

[cj]

Jack,

This may be true of the DRF variant, but that's about it. A decent variant will take the class of horses into account.

[BMeadow]

The advantage of doing your own figures is you will gain an insight into each horse at your track.

You will also be able to determine when a commercial figure might be a phony--e.g., Beyers: horse won on a biased surface; Sheets: gave extra credit to a horse who went wide but he was simply blowing by tired horses; Handicappers Report: horse gets credit for a fast pace that he was no part of, etc.

Yes it does take time. And it's true that if a horse runs a sensational race then everybody will give him a good number and if he runs a horrible race everybody will give him a bad number. But if you do your own work, you're sure to learn plenty, every day.

[46zilzal]

The advantage of doing your own figures is you will gain an insight into each horse at your track.
But if you do your own work, you're sure to learn plenty, every day.

Have to admit it takes going through the work to understand how they have true merit or not...Ritual of fire required

[JackS]

CJ- Of course you may be right. Would the same DRF variant makers all arrive at the same number regardless of the track they are making a number for?
Maybe or maybe not. Since I will probably never know and since I don't make my own numbers as Berry suggests, I'll no doubt continue experimenting with the DRF.
Trying to adjust the variant based on class also has it's problems. Pure non-conditioned races for claimers with-in the same class can produce oddly different variants on tracks that have virtually no change.
I will take Berrys expertise and his word of advise. If your really interested in this one number, do them yourself. No reason why anyone can't produce a variant that is at a minimum equal to anything you could buy and you would have the advantage of understanding exactly the why and how they were produced.

[46zilzal]

CTrying to adjust the variant based on class also has it's problems.

then why do it?...No one tells the horse who it is running against?

[JackS]

Well 46- If your right 60 and wrong 40% of the time you have an advantage.

[46zilzal]

pure and simple...A learing experience but NOT worth the work...partciularly when shippers come in...what do you do then?

Quit using them in the 80's, but did learn some things: horse simply Run thier race never knowing if it is NW1 or NW2, or an 80K or 35K claimer

[sjk]

You have to make them for all tracks if you want to do without other data sources.

[Light]

Example of value of TV's

GG 12/02
Routes(in tenths):
3rd: -1.2 (-12/10ths)
5th:-.6 (-6/10ths)
6th: +2.0 (+20/10ths)(Cut Class 4/Rio Reyes 1/Splendid times 5/Devils Bro4/8
8th: +.4 (+4/10ths)

Immediately the 6th race stands out. Is there an error? The seperation by lengths verifies the strength of this win. Suddenly I have 3 horses I am looking to come back.To validate the strength of this performance,Splendid times and Devils Bro have run again on:

GG12/18

Slendid times won by 10. Devils Bro ran 3rd,just missing 2nd.BTW Cut class and Rio Reyes have yet to come back. This example corroborates what Barry M said about TV's: familiarizing yourself with horses on your circuit as well as creating variants can be insightful.The bigger problem for me is being able to bet these horses in a correct fashion.

[rrbauer]

I have found that the best return on my time comes from my trip notes. I'm always looking for trouble that doesn't make the chart footnotes; for rides that are less than accomplished which can be corrected by a rider change; and for rides that appear to be schooling trips.

An example of the unreported trouble could be found in the 11th at Tampa today. #2 Silkie's Diz (2nd off layoff) had showed speed prior to the layup and today added blinkers in what appeared to be a race with moderate pace and the horse was about 7/2 in the betting. Speed and the inside have been gold at Tampa this week. At the break, the horse came away OK but then the rider was up in the irons and the horse dropped back. It ran to the rear for the entire race. Then as it came to the finish line I could see that the saddle was way forward and the jock was up on his knees to stay on. Saddle slipped!

Chart footnote: "Silkie's Diz showed little."