Exactas & Trifectas - Why do I play both? ARRGH!!

[CamptownRaces.com]

Last Monday at Phily Park I had 3 Races going. A win bet, an exacta, and a tri part-wheel with 2 horses.

My win bet won, my exacta was way off, and both of my Tri keys were scratched. I did come out with a meager +.045 ROI

On Saturday I played AQU and went 2 for 2 with my exactas for a +.60 ROI

Easter Sunday sent me to Golden Gate where I had 3 exactas & 2 Trifectas.

I hit 2 out of 3 exactas and missed both trifectas for a meager + .178 ROI

I can only catch about 26% of my trifecta plays going 0% this week.

My exactas on the other hand are hitting 66.6% this week, which brings my overall up to 41.3% for the past 6 months.

I just can't leave the damn trifectas alone and it's killing my profits!

Are there any players out there that can give me some good alternative wagers that will suffice my appetite for the BIG Payoffs?

HELP!

Charles

[Dick Schmidt]

Bet $100 exactas. That ought to do it.

Dick

[andicap]

Why not Pik-3's if you're good at win betting?

[Lefty]

Camptown, best advice I can give is the old Doctor's advice:" Doc,
when I lift my arm over my head it just kills me."
Doc says,"Then Don't DO THAT."

[CamptownRaces.com]

Originally posted by Lefty
Camptown, best advice I can give is the old Doctor's advice:" Doc,
when I lift my arm over my head it just kills me."
Doc says,"Then Don't DO THAT."

I wish I could "Just Stop", but it's like an addiction...

A good example of why I keep getting sucked in is the last race @ GG yesterday.

I just played the exacta with the #5 keyed 1st & 2nd to the 3,4,7

It came in 7/5/3/4

TRI paid big, and the super was four figures.

Those are the races that I say why didn't I play the TRI?

Then I find myself playing the next TRI that looks right. Like today's 5th race at Phily...

I just can't help myself...

[sq764]

If you 'can't resist', why not wager enough on the key horse to cover your exotics? Or at least stagger your wagers so that even if you miss all the exotics, if you're key horse wins, you profit?

[charleslanger]

how 'bout this:
(no win / xacta bets, put all money on tri) 5 / 3,4,7 / all -$1key
5 / 3,4,7(cross out from these the lowest-priced one) / all (also cross out from these all 3-1 or lower horses and any absolute pig throwouts) -$2key
3,4,7(cross out the lowest-priced one) / 5 / all (minus all 3-1 or lower horses and abslolute pig throwouts) $1key
alternate: 3,4,7 / 5 / only longshots
assuming an 11-horse field, you'll probably spend $50-60. If you're totally correct and the 5 wins, you're in like Flynn with more money on your stronger choices and higher odds horses. If you're not so correct and the 5 places, you won't care if some favorite beats you(in the show spot) or if the lowest-priced reverse combo beats you; you're gambling that your analysis won't be triply terrible- that your key horse doesn't win and that your saver horses won't have the other slots and that some low-priced horse is the one that beats you.

[CamptownRaces.com]

Very Nice!!! I love your insights on how to get the most bang for your buck.

I use a similar wager with exactas on a fav I think has a strong chance to win...

The $3/2 Exacta Box

You're just adding the extra dollar onto the lower paying combination.

If it comes contender/fav you still make out just as good minus a dollar, or $10, depending on what multiples you play at.

It's when it does run fav/contender that you get that extra 1/2 of the lower paying exacta.

I love what you had to say...

Charles

[Jeff P]

Charles-

I find that an 80/20 approach works for me. By that I mean that 80% of the money I bet on a race goes on a solid overlay horse to win. The other 20% of what I bet in the same race can be on exotics (double/pick three/pick four/exacta/tri/super/whatever.) If I can't find a single horse that I think is a solid overlay for the win position I'll pass the race.

You'd be surprised at the number of times that you can cash a nice win bet without catching any part of an exotic wager at all and still make a very nice profit on the race. If you do get lucky and catch an exotic wager along with a nice winner you can absolutely crush a race (or series of races.)

Say I am going to bet $100.00 on an overlaid horse that I really think has a solid chance to win. I might go $80.00 to win with a $10.00 exacta part wheel keying my top selection over two other contenders. If I am right and my key horse wins, I get what I CAME TO THE TRACK FOR IN THE FIRST PLACE- a nice win price on a large wager. If I am lucky enough to win and catch the exotic, I CRUSH the race.

Or maybe I feel like trying a double. I'd go $80.00 to win on the solid overlay horse to win along with a $6.00 or $7.00 double part wheel singling the key horse in the first leg to three horses in the next leg. If I'm right about the first race I then sometimes stand a VERY good chance at a NICE double payoff. This is probably my favorite way to play exotic wagers. Low risk, good chance at a nice outcome.

The same kind of logic can also be extended to the pick three. $82.00 to win along with a $2.00 pick three part wheel (a single horse in the first leg to three horses in each of the two subsequent legs.)

My approach very seldom finds the cashier filling out one of those stupid forms with me signing to collect money. I make very few plays but do cash on a regular basis. Once in a while the amount of a pick three will surprise me. (I did manage to have the only ticket in the country for a pick three at Turfway Park a few Saturdays ago.)

I very seldom put my key horse in the second position or bet to place. If I am wrong and my key horse doesn't win, then I lose. It doesn't get any simpler than that. I was just plain wrong about the race to begin with.

My own belief is that getting horses to run in the right order (second, third, and/or fourth) enters into an area that borders on hitting lottery numbers. It's hard enough to get the winner at overlaid odds- why make the game any harder than it has to be?

[anotherdave]

Jeff, I like your philosophy. It is pretty close to mine, but I still have trouble with mine. I bet win almost exclusively. One of my largest bets last year was on a horse I had spent a lot of time researching. I put $250 to win on him at 14.50-1. He led every step of the way until the last. That one race would have doubled my profits for the year. Or perhaps I should have bet a few exactors (he came in with the favourite, my 2nd choice) or some place -can't remember the price, but it was double figures. But I didn't. That race really shook me, but I persevered. I always think if I would have put $50 of the $250 on the exactor, it would have been smart. (80-20 just like you said).
Then there was the 9-1 shot who I nailed and won two weeks later that I had $120 to win and $80 on some worthless exactors. That bothered me the same way. I figure if I hadn't lost the race two weeks before I would have just had $200 to win on him.

Robert Bacon in "Secrets of Professional Turf Betting" said BEWARE OF THE SWITCHES. I know what he means. Once you have developed a plan and it is working stick with it. All through my handicapping life there have been instances where I completely changed my betting style and it caused trouble. That is why I bet to flat to win now. But I like your 80-20 plan, Jeff. If I do something like that and stick with it, maybe there won't be so many mess ups.

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[CamptownRaces.com]

Originally posted by Jeff P
Charles-

I find that an 80/20 approach works for me. By that I mean that 80% of the money I bet on a race goes on a solid overlay horse to win. The other 20% of what I bet in the same race can be on exotics (double/pick three/pick four/exacta/tri/super/whatever.) If I can't find a single horse that I think is a solid overlay for the win position I'll pass the race.


Hi Jeff,

The way I play is set-up for the exotics. My cashing percentage on exactas is higher than my win percentage. I can easily find the exacta key. I have a hard time saying whether it'll run 1st or 2nd.

You see, years ago I was a broke $2 player that couldn't afford to play 3 and 4 horse boxes each race. I almost always had the horses there, just never in the right order to match my scared money ticket.

I had to find a way to figure out who to key where and why. That, I have done... I'm real good at cutting the normal wager in half by finding the key horse out of the 3 or 4 that I think will hit the board.

I very rarely play straight WIN Bets & the exotics. It's one or the other for me, and with my Exactas hitting better than my win bets, I'll stick to what's working for me. You have a great method that I'm sure works very well for you. It just doesn't fit into my style of play.

Charles