Another losing year EXCEPT for PK-3s.

[fmhealth]

Well if nothing else I'm consistent. 46 years ago I went with my buddies for the first time to the BIG A. Actually remember the first two horses I bet, Black Sheath with Jack Yother riding & then TYONEON, can't remember the jockey on this one. In any event I lost that year & have continued this tradition for 46 consecutive years.

BUT, this year for the first time I notice a slight ray of hope(or is it the first signs of Alzheimers, I'm not certain). I actually WON with my PK-3 wagers. Approximately $850.00. Not much but A LOT better than my $2,458 loss with all other wagers.

So I'd like some insights from my fellow 'cappers. Obviously I'm going to concentrate much more heavily on PK-3s this year. My "typical" wager in '04 was 3x3x2 for an $18.00 bet. Of course there were numerous variations on this theme but this should give you a good feel for my usual wager. I'm uncomfortable when I've put $40-50 into this bet. Also, strange as it seems I don't win that much more often to justify putting this much of my capital at risk.

Any thoughts on how I can build on the modicom of success I've had in '04 would be very much appreciated. Thanks in advance & have a healthy year!!!

[JackS]

FM- I also prefer PK3/PK4 etc. I also like the DD's. There is something in the fact that your playing horses to win versus 1st, 2nd, 3rd/4th as in tri's and Supers.
Stay with what you like and seek out those tracks that have the "rolling Pk3's. You can usually find 1-2 races on any card that are as close to a sure thing as possible and build tickets based on the one or two races using these horses in all 3 legs of your Pk3 bets. If your fairly successful with this method, the Pk3 really doesn't pose any more threat to your bankroll than an average DD with payouts that often do not seem commenserat with odds.
As for ticket designs, go with your own comfort level. Your $18-50 average combo's seem reasonable to me.

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

I had a Great 2004

Here is my Pick 3 bet

We'll call your top selection A your 2nd selection B and your 3rd selection C

A/ABC/ABC

ABC/A/ABC

ABC/ABC/A

BC/BC/BC

Cost $35.00 a pop but worth every penny

Try it for fun the next few days and see how you would have done

Good Luck

Jimmy

[bettheoverlay]

I have done poorly with P3s the last two years, after coming out ahead with them the previous two. The winning was due to hitting some very large payoffs, which I was unable to accomplish often enough in the losing years.

My records in win betting show profits are non existent betting horses under 6-1. I always see P3 strategies by using combinations of top choices. Does anyone go by reasonable expectation of return? For instance, I might aim to only bet on combinations with a minimum expectation of a $200 return (I am only guessing here). Combinations with lower expectations being long-term losing propositions. Can betting a 3-1 with a 3-1 with 3-1 show long term profits? I am sure it doesn't for me.

Only getting the odds for the first leg complicates the matter. I am just more convinced than ever that big payoffs are the only way to come out ahead. Why try to hit the small ones?

[toetoe]

fm,
I advise skipping some races, for example: bet races 1,2,3, then skip the 2-3-4 p3, bet 3-4-5 only if you can make sense of it. This way you can bet 30 or 40 on sequences you like and that you believe will give you some juice.

[JackS]

I agree with toe-toe that some sequences should be skipped but not for the same reasons.
Skip sequences that contain a very short field that would severly undercut any meaningful profit should the favorite or near favorite win.
Very nice profits are possible when you encounter those races which are difficult to handicap and you also realize that the general public will also be having difficulties. A broader point of view can be used in these cases and the top favorite tossed with ease. In these cases 3-4 or more horses at more reasonable odds thus much better payouts can be used.
You will be burned by the favorite now and then but overall should do much better in the profits column. Don't run from these types of races, relish them.

[toetoe]

Jack,
Well put. Isn't that what we try to do every time we bet? Let the underlays beat us and pray that it won't happen often? Example: the 7 in the Aq. nightcap was a huge underlay in the pick-4. We can't predict the will-pays but we CAN avoid chalk/2nd chalk, chalk/2nd chalk, etc. tickets.

[fmhealth]

Thanks to everyone who took the time to answer my query. Your insights are very much appreciated. BTW, I see that Mr Irish backed-up his post with a very big day at the Big A today. Way to go!!!

[freeneasy]

and that is that lad is a professional and this type bet is structured in that manner and that this bet can be a very good bet when you feel you have a solid contender for the win in each of the 3 legs of the pk 3 that your interested in playing. iow's in the first bet

a/abc/abc you have to hit the one single to keep the other 3 horses in the other two legs alive. cost, $9
in the second bet
abc/a/abc you have to hit the one single to keep the other 3 horses in the other two legs alive. cost, $9
in the third bet
abc/abc/a you have to hit the one single to keep the other 3 horses in the other two legs alive. cost, $9
3 tickets at a $27 cost, heres the trap

in order to win at least one of the bets you have to hit at least one single
in order to win two of the bets you have to hit at least two singles
in order to win all three of the bets you have to hit all three singles
were talking singles here and if you dont hit at least one single then you will automatically lose all 3 bets.
iow's make damn sure you got the horse thats supposed to win at least one of those 3 races let alone all three. and you still should feel pretty sucure about your singles in the other two legs as well. if not then play a single ticket with a single winner
a/abc/abc and with this ticket at a $9 cost you can certainly play a moderate longshot for the single

1) a/abc/abc $9
2) abc/a/abc $9
3) abc/abc/a $9
4) bc/bc/bc $8
5) cost $35
if any one of your singles in bets 1,2 and 3 win then you atomaticaly lose #4. and if none of your singles win then you still have a chance to win with #4

6) abc/abc/abc
7) cost $27
if 1,2,3 or 4 hits then you have it covered in bet #6

i guess to sum it up 1,2,3,4 has all the combinations covered as well as #6 difference being is that your saying for 8 extra dollars your buying the two payoffs instead of the one if two singles win and your buying the 3 payoffs instead of the one if all three singles win.

remember this is a force bet and lads been at this for a long time and it might be less of a force bet to him as it is to you, but you will hit with this bet many times over

[lamboruns]

not a big fan of the pick 3. but i have seen players play this very sucessfully at OP where they have the rolling pick 3.. something i am following.