Reviewing your handicapping for 2004

[trying2win]

Does anyone like to do a year end review of their handicapping? Do you ever ask yourself questions like:

--Did I make progress in any areas as compared to previous years...such as, made an overall profit at a race meet? Did that give you a great satisfaction, if you haven't had a profitable meet before, or for awhile?

--Did I gain some new insights into handicapping in 2004 that have really helped my game?

--Is playing the thoroughbreds just as challenging and fun as it was 5 or 10 years ago? Are you still enjoying the journey? We all enjoy the peaks at the track during a big winning day, or a winning streak.

--How about the valleys? Those frustrating, losing days or extended losing streaks that test your patience at times. Are you calmer during these valleys than in previous years? Have you more confidence than in the past, knowing that you'll bounce back to the winning days, sooner or later?

--Are you looking forward to the thoroughbred races in 2005?

--Do you find playing the races a continual learning experience?

--Do you find the social aspect of talking to fellow horse players at the track or online, add to the fun of playing the races?

I'm sure PA members can add some more interesting questions, comments, and experiences etc. to add to this topic. It should be interesting to read what you have to say.

Thanks,

T2W

[acorn54]

i suppose the biggest lessons i learned in in 2004 are

1- even if make 20% on my bets it doesn't add up to that much. in 2004 i bet about 15000 dollars. 11500 according to my bris account and an estimate of other wagering. at 20% roi that is 3000 dollars for the year.
i did not in fact show a profit for the year but lost 800 dollars

2- not to bet large sums of money until i have at least 1 year of a positive r.o.i. very often i come up with insights that i think are profound over the course of a betting year but as my losses for 2004 show this is not in reality, the case.
acorn

[cj]

Rebates are a dream, that is what I have learned. I've been betting with Pinnacle since September, and don't regret it for one second.

Disclaimer: I'm not in the US, its legal here. Who knows when I return?

[sjk]

As always I continue to believe in data driven computer handicapping which does work for me. On a long time horizon I believe a continuous improvement program is a good idea no matter how well you are doing. Three times in the last year I have tested and implemented some changes to my program (one just last week) and I believe the first two changes helped me to have a better year than the one before.

On a shorter time frame, if you have tested and believe in what you are doing you just have to get your action out there and roll with the punches. I have developed a high degree of equanimity as to lost photos, bad rides, lost riders etc.

One thing that helped was a simple means of keeping track of what post times were upcoming since if you are playing a lot of tracks things can get quite hectic (and plays can be missed) if you lack organization.

I am still hoping someone will suggest some ideas on seasonality as I had a poor December after 11 good months previously.

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

T2W,
Yes I do. I started last night. I look back at all my numbers.
I gather data on how I did with my plays ( Ex P/w's Ex Box's
and Pick 3, and Win Bets ) I compare how I did a various tracks
Most of my bets will be from the 3 Ny Tracks . But I did
have a big year at Keeneland. I'll answer a few of your questions

Did I make progress in any areas as compared to previous years...such as, made an overall profit at a race meet?

Yes at Keeneland

Did that give you a great satisfaction, if you haven't had a profitable meet before, or for awhile?

Yes it did. I never played Keeneland on a everyday basis

Did I gain some new insights into handicapping in 2004 that have really helped my game?

Yes , Roll with the punches . Take the good with the bad. Take yesterday (at Aqu)for example. I had no winner's and 5 of my top selections finished second. Some of them at real nice odds. Before this would have pissed me off
enough to affect todays races. Yesterday I just laughed it off.

Is playing the thoroughbreds just as challenging and fun as it was 5 or 10 years ago?

I'm enjoying it more then ever. I hadn't had as this much fun in years .

Are you still enjoying the journey?

Yes . And I look forward to another great year

We all enjoy the peaks at the track during a big winning day, or a winning streak.How about the valleys? Those frustrating, losing days or extended losing streaks that test your patience at times. Are you calmer during these valleys than in previous years? Have you more confidence than in the past, knowing that you'll bounce back to the winning days, sooner or later?

As I stated earlier . I just roll with the punches now. I have enough confidence in my ability that it all all work out in the end .

Are you looking forward to the thoroughbred races in 2005?

Yes


Do you find playing the races a continual learning experience?


Yes I do

Do you find the social aspect of talking to fellow horse players at the track or online, add to the fun of playing the races?

Yes , I find this site to be a blessing . I dont get to track that much.
So talking to fellow plays in the Warroom and posting selections everyday
and interacting with others here make up for not being at the track

T2w Thanks for the great post

Happy New Year

Jimmy

[trying2win]

Thanks to everyone for their input so far.

As I mentioned in the war room recently, I had a loss over all betting the thoroughbreds in 2004. Despite that, I made some progress in some ways. For one, I finished with a good profit at the Northlands Park thoroughbred meet. That was one of the highlights of the year. There is some hope after all, for us long-time horse players LOL!

That gave me a good feeling, when I asked how the NP meet went for a lot of the regulars out at Northlands Park (our local track). The majority of them did terrible at the NP meet, and were perplexed at my success there. I used several strategies at NP (track-specific strategies?) that I don't use at other thoroughbred tracks. Every track is different. Some strategies work successfully at several tracks, but not at all tracks.

I may have lost money at some tracks in 2004, but towards the end of some meets, I had gained enough insight into what works and what doesn't at certain racing venues. These kind of tracks hold good possibilities for profits in 2005. I also learned that some tracks are a write off. I just can't figure them out, and I won't be playing these ones in 2005.

With the sense of success or progress at some racetracks, I raised my bets a little bit at these places.

Handicapping horse races is more challenging and fun than ever. It's a great retirement pastime for me. I think I might be pretty bored, if I didn't have playing the horse races to look forward to on a regular basis.

I seem to be a little calmer over all, when hitting those losing streaks. I've gained more confidence in knowing, that I'm likely to bounce back at certain tracks now.

I'm looking forward to betting the Northlands Park thoroughbred meet in 2005. Same for those other racetracks where I made good progress last year.

Anyone else got anything to relate about their handicapping experiences in 2004?

Thanks,

T2W

[BillW]

T2W,

Best of luck to you going forward and here's to a more profitable 2005 for us all.

Bill

[andicap]

Learned that higher odds horses are definitely to way to go for me, whether betting to win or keying in exactas/tris. Not necessarily deep bombs or double-digits, but definitely the mid and sometimes high end of the board. If I can't handicap a race in 5-7 minutes I pass.

2005 resolutions: Keep better day-to-day records on what's winning at my tracks.
-- Finally achieve a deeper understanding of energy to use it in my everyday play.
-- Handicap the public better so my overlays are real ones. In other words using the board and the public's habits to figure out when a 20-1 shot deserves to be 20-1.

[wonatthewire1]

"Learned that higher odds horses are definitely to way to go for me, whether betting to win or keying in exactas/tris. Not necessarily deep bombs or double-digits, but definitely the mid and sometimes high end of the board."

I, too, became a much more selective player with the longer shots and made a very successful foray into the Pick-3's.

I still haven't been moving into betting exactas and trifectas, I'm finding that the payoffs in NY and other larger tracks to be too low and the races at smaller venues - lead to horses I wouldn't even consider filling out the bottom halves of trifectas.

But the Pick-3's are great!

Continued success...

Won

[peakpros]

2004 was a good year for me. I added CJ figs to my race and bias notes for Monmouth and had a very successful meet. (About 4x better than the last year, which wasn't so bad itself.)


Unfortunately I have not gotten over the fact that I need to be at the track to bet. I made 60 out of ~85 days. I just feel I can not pull the trigger on a major win bet unless I see the horse in person. When Monmouth closes I basically am done for 7 months.

I stll bet mostly to win. But this year I relied less on the back-up exacta bet and started to key horses in the tri. I had several nice hits which greatly helped the bottom line.


I am envious of the computer and fig making brainpower of this group. (I am a daily lurker.) Maybe some day I can make the switch to a online bettor but I don't feel I'm ready yet.

However I greatly appreiciate the knowledge and insight that people share here. Also thanks to PA for keeping such a great site.