A couple biases to watch

[Valuist]

The guys on TVG keep going on about a speed bias at Aqueduct. I don't feel its the case today. There's a strong bias but its a RAIL bias. Several horses have closed today but they all had one thing in common: rail trips. You can't go wide and have any chance whatsoever.

Hawthorne also had a very strong rail yesterday. They didn't run today but I would not be surprised to see more of the same on Friday.

[RXB]

You and I spotted the exact same thing; it seemed pretty obvious after just two or three races. Unfortunately, I must've been braindead today because I still lost. Given an obvious bias and a bunch of suspect favourites from the 4th race onward, I'm not exactly sure how I managed to lose, but I did. :(

[Turntime]

Personally I have found that rail biases are the hardest bias to play because one of several things seems to happen to ruin your bet.

1. The horse in post position #10 shows surprise early speed, angles over to the rail and wires the field (surprise!).
2. A horse from one of the middle or outside posts gets rail position by chance and closes up the inside for the score.
3. The jockey of the horse you bet, unaware of what is going on, manuevers the horse from rail position to the outside (this one is the most frustrating).

I've had much greater success with outside and/or closing biases, and even pure speed biases.

[RXB]

Interesting point; I'll have to track rail-biased cards and see if I have long-term difficulties or not.

Mostly, though, I think I was guilty of being overinfluenced by a single factor. When I looked over the races last night, I was pretty sure that I wouldn't be making a single bet. So I guess I stuck my nose into a few spots where I didn't really know what was going to happen, even with the obvious bias and the weak favourites. And as a result, I ended up either on the wrong horses or with poorly structured bets.

Lesson: A bias should serve as a helpful guide, not as a call to wager.

[46zilzal]

there's ALWAYS a speed bias at AQU...soemtimes it is more obvious

[RXB]

Frequently, but not always. For example, anyone betting speed in routes on Dec. 16 was giving away his money.

[Valuist]

Several of these merit attention next time out:

Nimble Wit--struggled from 9 hole and couldn't get lead. Still ran 4th.
Dirty Martini--like above struggled from outer post and did well to run 4th
Acey Deucey--worst trip of day; stumbled badly start, then from the 2 hole Nelson ended up getting 4 to 6 wide the rest of the way :confused:
Seneca Summer- roughed up nearing turn and 4 wide; managed to get 2nd, although a non threatening second.

[RXB]

Sorry, I need to make a slight correction to my previous post. Dec. 15, rather than Dec. 16, was the day that speed horses failed in the route races.

[andicap]

Several of these merit attention next time out:

Nimble Wit--struggled from 9 hole and couldn't get lead. Still ran 4th.
Dirty Martini--like above struggled from outer post and did well to run 4th
Acey Deucey--worst trip of day; stumbled badly start, then from the 2 hole Nelson ended up getting 4 to 6 wide the rest of the way :confused:
Seneca Summer- roughed up nearing turn and 4 wide; managed to get 2nd, although a non threatening second.


Acey Deucy and Seneca Summer were two of my bets today -- (at least I my WP bet on SS made a little money).Man was I cursing Nelson today -- she just can't get a horse out of the gate.

[cj]

Anyone find it odd a 1 for 40 something jock was able to win three on a biased track? He'd have been an "automatic toss" for some people here.

[pandy]

The inner track is often called speed biased and I agree that TVG was wrong. The track has a long stretch and often smart riders, like Fragosa, save ground and gradually move up along the rail, angle out in the stretch and win from off the pace.

[46zilzal]

Just because a race is won by a horse that comes from a position in today's field off the pace of another DOES NOT mean a speed bias is not in play. Often the pace horse(s) are COMPELETELY overmatched non-entities in the contest. It is the projected STYLE, going into the contest, that determines whether that STYLE is dominnant today or not which determines whether a bias is extant, NOT the physical positioning in the contest.

While speed tends to create animals PHYSICALLY up on the pace, the speedball projected animals do not have to garnder that position if the distribution of their energy patterns are earlier than their competitors.

[The Hawk]

the fact that 4 or 5 races are won by horses on the lead does not necessarily mean there IS a speed bias. There are lots of cases where those particular races lacked pace and the horses who were on the lead, loose or otherwise, held a big advantage over the closers.

[Tom]

With small fields and cheap horses, one may dominate the filed and just run away and hide-no bias aid, just a class edge. See it all the time at cheap tracks (although nowadays, which ones aren't cheap!)

[Valuist]

I think the term bias has been wrongly applied in many instances. From what I understand, Steve Davidowitz was the first to coin the term and it was used to describe when certain paths on the track were favorable. The majority of North American dirt tracks are "speed favoring" so I really don't buy into the notion of speed biases, except in instances where the track has moisture in it.