K.I.S.S.

[46zilzal]

the secret...Keep it simple and wagering desions are much easier

Amazed at how complicated folks here get when going after a simple game

[kitts]

The game is simple all right. Making money at it is sometimes challenging.

[kingfin66]

the secret...Keep it simple and wagering desions are much easier

Amazed at how complicated folks here get when going after a simple game

Could you please give a simple Norwesterner an example of what you are trying to say? Thanks.

[46zilzal]

Could you please give a simple Norwesterner an example of what you are trying to say? Thanks.

Folks put too many peripherals into the handicapping decisions

[plainolebill]

Folks put too many peripherals into the handicapping decisions

Thanks for the tip.

[kingfin66]

Folks put too many peripherals into the handicapping decisions

I'm still not sure that I understand what you mean, but I'll take a stab at it anyway. Are you saying that people get too bogged down in the minutia (sp?) of making precise figures, or trying to discover trainer patterns, or get too cute in trying to construct their exotics tickets.

I'm probably way off, but I'm definitely trying to understand. An example really would help.

[46zilzal]

MOST races hinge on about three or four factors THAT'S IT...NOT what the trainer assistant is wearing or the 10 year hisotry of the trainer first time filly's running in a claimer on Tuedays on an off track etc.

[46zilzal]

Most maiden races hinge on being first or second velocity last race at the second call.....that's usually IT.

[rmania]

Most maiden races hinge on being first or second velocity last race at the second call.....that's usually IT.
Rather than start a new thread I dug this one up from the achives just to let everyone know that K.I.S.S. still reigns supreme.

Example: Yesterday (opening day) at Hollywood Park there were 5 sprint races on the card. Using the K.I.S.S. method would have netted you 3 wins, 1 place and 1 show.

[The Hawk]

Also, if you would have purchased Apple stock at $3 per share in the mid-80's, you would have done even better...yesterday.

[Tom]

Maybe this thread was a tad too simple.:rolleyes:

[Fingal]

MOST races hinge on about three or four factors THAT'S IT...NOT what the trainer assistant is wearing or the 10 year hisotry of the trainer first time filly's running in a claimer on Tuedays on an off track etc.

When you try to quantify everything-
You quantify nothing.

[Greyfox]

Maybe this thread was a tad too simple.:rolleyes:

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp: Right. This thread has very little meat to chew on.

Recruit Officer: Have you given any thought to your future, son?
Forrest Gump: Thought?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Maybe my original cappingmethods are too simple for people to believe they work! In sprints and grass, when the crowd says the top and 2nd choices are good enough to be between even and 3-1 odds and no others are that low, that is simple!

[upset]

Yeah its simple the gates open a horse takes the lead and trys to hold it to the wire while the others try to pass the leader. Texas hold em is probably the most simple poker game. Heck you only get 2 cards. What about NFL football...Simple...pass,run,run,pass throw in a kick now and then. What's the big deal.

[Tex9Down]

Do you mean to say that you don't consider what the trainer's assistant is wearing? WOW, that is odd.

[upset]

Of course you have to take that in to account . You have to know if they think they're getting their picture taken. Works better with the owners though.

[shouldacoulda]

Reminds me of a story I heard of 2 young guys at the track using complicated calculations and consistently losing. They notice an old timer cashing tickets after every race so they ask him his secret. He said I don't get all hung up on those figures. If I see the 2 horse shake his head I check it off. If the 3 horse shakes his head I check him off then I add 2 & 3 together and I play the 4 horse. They said you idiot 2 & 3 are 5! He said there you go with them figures again.

[Trotman]

Touche' shouldacoulda good one and that line speaks volumes.

[46zilzal]

Of course you have to take that in to account . You have to know if they think they're getting their picture taken. Works better with the owners though.
SOME trainers dress up all the time, OTHERS never do....I am in the winner's circle often enough to know that.

[letswastemoney]

I don't think complicated stats should just be discounted so easily

[letswastemoney]

I mean if someone showed me a stat where a trainer has pulled off 3 wins in the last 5 times he has entered a horse trying synthetics for the first time, I would have to take a closer look wouldn't I?

[GARY Z]

Here's a method that worked at MTH about 10 years ago.

My wife and I are at the paddock, its one of the early cheap claiming races
and a horse named (I believe) Onedayvincentj walks by us with his handler and winks at my wife.

The horse's iodds are 99-1 ,has awful form, virtually 0
speed, no sign of life and this is a 6fg race.

I'm forced to buy a $2.00 win ticket, and the horse comes off the pace and pays about 130.00

I guess my 2.00 destroyed the odds.

Moral.. if you do go to the paddock, don't use any sophisticated info
when one of these rare events happens.

Good ending is when the horse loses you truly have an excuse
as it came from the horse's eye...
:cool:

[fmolf]

Here's a method that worked at MTH about 10 years ago.

My wife and I are at the paddock, its one of the early cheap claiming races
and a horse named (I believe) Onedayvincentj walks by us with his handler and winks at my wife.

The horse's iodds are 99-1 ,has awful form, virtually 0
speed, no sign of life and this is a 6fg race.

I'm forced to buy a $2.00 win ticket, and the horse comes off the pace and pays about 130.00

I guess my 2.00 destroyed the odds.

Moral.. if you do go to the paddock, don't use any sophisticated info
when one of these rare events happens.

Good ending is when the horse loses you truly have an excuse
as it came from the horse's eye...
:cool:that is a nice story....K.I.S.S. was a favorite saying of mine when i was coaching the j.v hockey team in my town...not sure how it pertains to handicapping.Handicapping to me is trying to decide which info is relevant and which is not.Sometimes pace might be most important...other times final speed might be better served.....sometimes trainer intent is more important than all other things....wagering is another story and i do keep it simple finding my best value is usually in the win or exacta pools with the occasional place bet....and very occasional dd

[Tom]

I mean if someone showed me a stat where a trainer has pulled off 3 wins in the last 5 times he has entered a horse trying synthetics for the first time, I would have to take a closer look wouldn't I?

Dams straight.
Short term stats pay off all the time.:ThmbUp:

[ranchwest]

SOME trainers dress up all the time, OTHERS never do....I am in the winner's circle often enough to know that.

So, KISS only works when it is your KISS?

Some only dress up for a picture. Some don't even show up except for a picture. I've found that when they have 30 drunk friends near the winner's circle, they often win.

Using different information from yours isn't necessarily wrong.

[Tom]

We used to have a trainer at FL who owed two sets of clothes - coveralls and a suit coat. We had an idea what he thought about his horse....:D

[castaway01]

So, KISS only works when it is your KISS?

Some only dress up for a picture. Some don't even show up except for a picture. I've found that when they have 30 drunk friends near the winner's circle, they often win.

Using different information from yours isn't necessarily wrong.

Zilly has made thousands and thousands of posts where he argues otherwise.

Honestly, keeping it simple isn't bad advice...it's just that his argument is always to "keep it simple" IN ONE VERY NARROW EXACT WAY THAT I FOLLOW, WHICH IS THE ONLY WAY THAT WORKS, YOU IDIOT.

That's bad advice.

Overall though, learning to specialize on one thing and learning that facet of the game is probably the best way to go about being somewhat successful with the shortest learning curve. If that's simple, then I guess it's good.