'Automatic Throwouts'??

[sq764]

What are some automatic throwouts for everyone? I have a few that I stick by:

- Any maiden who is 0 for 8 or worse

- Any jock or trainer that is 0 for 25 or worse

- Any horse that is 0 for 10 or more at the distance

Of course, there are occasions where I get beat with these, but I have found these to be fairly steadfast rules for me..

[ratpack]

Both Trainer and Jockey with 9% or under win %

[Speed Figure]

Any horse from Roger Stein. :D

[Valuist]

Any horse that has bled thru Lasix.

[betchatoo]

Any horse who has had 5 or more chances at this class level and failed to win.

[shanta]

EVERY favorite that is trying to do something for the first time. Every single one of them.
Richie :)

[RXB]

What is the definition of 'automatic throwout?' Does it mean "the horse has no chance" or "I never bet on these kind" or what, precisely?

I'll give you an example. Many years ago I read 'Commonsense Handicapping' by Dick Mitchell. In reviewing one particular race, he says that a graded stakes winner that is going off at 2/1 in this allowance race (which he identifies as a decidedly negative ROI category) is an automatic throwout, thus 28% of the betting pool is now eliminated and the race is an excellent betting opportunity.

Yet a few chapters before this, when he first identifies the negative ROI for this kind of horse, he admits that they win about 35% of the time. Now, how is this horse an 'automatic throwout?' By what form of logic does he completely eliminate the graded winner's chance in that allowance race?

To me, it should always be about probabilities in a given race, because sometimes patterns that are generally negative are overridden by some very positive information and/or favourable scenarios.

[shanta]

RXB asks a good question. My post shoulda said : I never BET on those types and always play against them strongly.

Richie

[Tee]

No steadfast automatic tosses in my rulebook. I know what I like to look for in a contender & play accordingly even if it may go against some very sound handicapping principles.

Over the years I have found that the so called "automatic" toss can & will bite u in the ass.

That 0/trainer could be sending out the best horse he/she has had in years. That 0/jock could be riding the best horse he/she has had in the "down" period.

The "lifelong" maiden may have found an inexperienced bunch that can be beat.

The favorite that is trying something new for the 1st time may be a future Grade 1 stakes winner.

Etc, etc, etc

There are some great guidelines that should send up a red flag when handicapping a horse race. However I try to look at each race & runner individually just in case there is an exception to the "rule(s)."

I guess what I am saying is - most of the time, not all of the time if u catch my drift.

[Jeff P]

Many courses, because of the way they are laid out, are extemely unkind to certain post positions. I know that Saratoga is a long long way off. But year in and year out, horses on the Saratoga turf with far outside posts are at a real disadvantage.

Here's what I have for Turf Routes during the 2004 Saratoga meet broken out by rail position:


999 Divisor
TURF ROUTES (From Index File: F:\Validation_Data\SAR\pl_profile.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 885.50 1016.80 1035.60
Bet -1440.00 -1440.00 -1440.00
Gain -554.50 -423.20 -404.40

Wins 74 150 222
Plays 720 720 720
PCT .1028 .2083 .3083

ROI 0.6149 0.7061 0.7192
Avg Mut 11.97 6.78 4.66


By: Rail Position

Rail Pos Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
1 -33.30 148.00 0.7750 10 74 .1351
2 -100.80 132.00 0.2364 5 66 .0758
3 -72.00 134.00 0.4627 7 67 .1045
4 -32.40 144.00 0.7750 12 72 .1667
5 7.90 144.00 1.0549 9 72 .1250
6 -26.20 134.00 0.8045 7 67 .1045
7 -72.90 130.00 0.4392 4 65 .0615
8 -85.90 136.00 0.3684 4 68 .0588
9 -29.50 132.00 0.7765 9 66 .1364
10 -16.80 94.00 0.8213 5 47 .1064
11 -40.30 56.00 0.2804 2 28 .0714
12 -38.00 38.00 0.0000 0 19 .0000
13 -14.00 14.00 0.0000 0 7 .0000
14 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000
15 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000


Note that posts 11 and out were a combined 2 for 56 last summer with a dismal win ROI. When I handicap turf races at Saratoga, that's usually my first throw out!!!

[sq764]

What is the definition of 'automatic throwout?' Does it mean "the horse has no chance" or "I never bet on these kind" or what, precisely?

I'll give you an example. Many years ago I read 'Commonsense Handicapping' by Dick Mitchell. In reviewing one particular race, he says that a graded stakes winner that is going off at 2/1 in this allowance race (which he identifies as a decidedly negative ROI category) is an automatic throwout, thus 28% of the betting pool is now eliminated and the race is an excellent betting opportunity.

Yet a few chapters before this, when he first identifies the negative ROI for this kind of horse, he admits that they win about 35% of the time. Now, how is this horse an 'automatic throwout?' By what form of logic does he completely eliminate the graded winner's chance in that allowance race?

To me, it should always be about probabilities in a given race, because sometimes patterns that are generally negative are overridden by some very positive information and/or favourable scenarios.

How about the topic being 'Horses I would never ever ever ever ever bet on and if they beat me they beat me'

[sq764]

No steadfast automatic tosses in my rulebook. I know what I like to look for in a contender & play accordingly even if it may go against some very sound handicapping principles.

Over the years I have found that the so called "automatic" toss can & will bite u in the ass.

That 0/trainer could be sending out the best horse he/she has had in years. That 0/jock could be riding the best horse he/she has had in the "down" period.

The "lifelong" maiden may have found an inexperienced bunch that can be beat.

The favorite that is trying something new for the 1st time may be a future Grade 1 stakes winner.

Etc, etc, etc

There are some great guidelines that should send up a red flag when handicapping a horse race. However I try to look at each race & runner individually just in case there is an exception to the "rule(s)."

I guess what I am saying is - most of the time, not all of the time if u catch my drift.

I see what you are saying, but consistent losers lose for a reason... If trainers win at 3%, that means they lose 32 times for every winner.. I'll take my chances and play the percentages..

[keilan]

sq said

I see what you are saying, but consistent losers lose for a reason... If trainers win at 3%, that means they lose 32 times for every winner.. I'll take my chances and play the percentages..

Sq some players like to win races and some players like to win money. Whatever floats your boat

[toetoe]

Tee,
I call it knowing when to break the rules. It's one race in an infinity of races with no perfect comparable. Now, when your speed horse @ Saratoga figures to go 16-wide @ the clubhouse turn, don't bet him @<150/1 or whatever. If he's miles the speediest, maybe he's a play @ 4/1. These distinctions can never be made by post-pos. stats. By the way, I noticed that post 2 did worse than the combined 11-16 on Sar. turf. Does that mean no bets ever on post 2? Context, gentlemen, context.

[sq764]

sq said



Sq some players like to win races and some players like to win money. Whatever floats your boat

Right, I like to win money.. What is your point.

[Overlay]

I see what you are saying, but consistent losers lose for a reason... If trainers win at 3%, that means they lose 32 times for every winner.. I'll take my chances and play the percentages..

But doesn't the very concept of playing the percentages mean not discarding an entrant outright, but judging its winning chances in light of its odds and betting when value is present? Granted, 3% trainers are unlikely to win, but those occasions when they do win might be the kind of longshot that can tilt a player's balance sheet one way or the other. It seems to me that it's more productive to either look for positive aspects in horses' records, or else make a judgment of a horse's overall winning probability based on both the positive and negative aspects of its record in comparison to its competition, rather than arrive at a selection through a process of elimination by applying only negative criteria, no matter how sound.

[sq764]

But doesn't the very concept of playing the percentages mean not discarding an entrant outright, but judging its winning chances in light of its odds and betting when value is present? Granted, 3% trainers are unlikely to win, but those occasions when they do win might be the kind of longshot that can tilt a player's balance sheet one way or the other. It seems to me that it's more productive to either look for positive aspects in horses' records, or else make a judgment of a horse's overall winning probability based on both the positive and negative aspects of its record in comparison to its competition, rather than arrive at a selection through a process of elimination by applying only negative criteria, no matter how sound.
I would never bet a 3% trainer, period.. If I pass him 33 times, 32 of those times I am right to toss him and move onto other horses.. It's about the bottom line here..

[Valuist]

I think the bottom line is that handicapping is about specifics; not generalities. There may be a few rare instances when we automatically toss out, but they should be rare. Words like "never" or "always" should not be a part of the handicapper's vocabulary.

[sq764]

I think the bottom line is that handicapping is about specifics; not generalities. There may be a few rare instances when we automatically toss out, but they should be rare. Words like "never" or "always" should not be a part of the handicapper's vocabulary.

To each his own... How we each get to the black ROI doesn't matter as long as we get there..

[cj]

I would never bet a 3% trainer, period.. If I pass him 33 times, 32 of those times I am right to toss him and move onto other horses.. It's about the bottom line here..

What if this 3% trainer had won 6 of 200 races, and his winners averaged paying $80? I'd sure bet him. Now, what if 3 of those 6 winners were 1st time starters in maiden claiming races, and he'd only entered in 25 of those?

You have to dig deep in this game, and situations like those above do occur.

[sq764]

What if this 3% trainer had won 6 of 200 races, and his winners averaged paying $80? I'd sure bet him. Now, what if 3 of those 6 winners were 1st time starters in maiden claiming races, and he'd only entered in 25 of those?

You have to dig deep in this game, and situations like those above do occur.

Again, to each his own.. I know plenty of people that would bet 20 of his horses in maidens and lose all 20, then pass him from there, missing the $80 horse..

I;d rather look elsewhere and let him beat me..

[Valuist]

Here's a few that, generally, I do not like to wager on, but will from time to time:

1. First time starters---its proven they win less than their fair share of races but IMO too many handicappers get too caught up in yearling prices and bloodlines. Quite a few great horses have lost their debuts; Secretariat, Sunday Silence come to mind. Its a whole new experience for a horse. I know some barns are good with them but, IMO, they are overbet.

2. Horses claimed away from Dutrow, Amoss, Mullins, Asmussen or any of the "super trainers". These horses may be in such good form they sometimes win despite going to an inferior barn. But the form slide will hit....its just a matter of when.

3. Posts 9 and out in Aqueduct inner dirt routes. Might as well figure on going 4 wide on the first turn.

4. Horses coming off big figures they earned loose on the lead with a very soft pace. These horses sometimes win back but almost always at underlaid prices.

5. Horses' whose last race was in the Breeders Cup. Some of them win but these horses are almost always overbet next out.

[cj]

.. I know plenty of people that would bet 20 of his horses in maidens and lose all 20, then pass him from there, missing the $80 horse..

I;d rather look elsewhere and let him beat me..

Those plenty of people you know are called "losers!"

[JackS]

Here's a thought. Toss the 3% trainers horse if the horse should obtain favorite status. Even close to favorite status, these horses probably represent an overall significant failure rate thus an absolute negative impact on your ROI.
The other side of the coin is the positive impact of negative numbers when applied appropiatly.
Horses who figure to compete can be accepted as possible winners anytime the price is right.

[keilan]

Right, I like to win money.. What is your point.

It’s not about betting 3% trainers or 30% trainers, it’s about wagering on horses that will outrun their odds today and hit the board. This game is as much about picking losers as it’s about picking winners, I know that sounds like a bunch of bullshit to you but that’s in part how it works.

In your example "they lose 32 times for every time they win". Do you really think the good players are on this horse all 33 races, not likely – but they are on him when he does hit the board or wins the race.

From your comments in this thread you appear to be someone who only bets win--place –show. If you played in the exotic pools those low percentage trainers would have you in the poor-house by the end of the week. Any player that can’t accurately assess each horses probabilities of winning or hitting the board is a LOSING PLAYER period.

When you understand what others and I have said to you on this thread, then you will have a chance to be a break-even player.

[sq764]

Those plenty of people you know are called "losers!"

Well CJ, as you are very well aware, 99.9% of people that play horses are losers over the course of a year...

[sq764]

It’s not about betting 3% trainers or 30% trainers, it’s about wagering on horses that will outrun their odds today and hit the board. This game is as much about picking losers as it’s about picking winners, I know that sounds like a bunch of bullshit to you but that’s in part how it works.

In your example "they lose 32 times for every time they win". Do you really think the good players are on this horse all 33 races, not likely – but they are on him when he does hit the board or wins the race.

From your comments in this thread you appear to be someone who only bets win--place –show. If you played in the exotic pools those low percentage trainers would have you in the poor-house by the end of the week. Any player that can’t accurately assess each horses probabilities of winning or hitting the board is a LOSING PLAYER period.

When you understand what others and I have said to you on this thread, then you will have a chance to be a break-even player.

Thanks for the off the wall advice, but I do just fine on my own. I am sure you are one of those 'I profited xxx dollars this year' guys' who love to mouth off.. I have always found the ones that are arrogant and love to act as if they know it all are consistent losers.. Sorry, but if I had to guess, I would lump you in there..

Like I said, to each his own, we all don't have to get there the same way..

[kingfin66]

Well CJ, as you are very well aware, 99.9% of people that play horses are losers over the course of a year...

Usually, it is said that 95% are losers. Your point is, of course, that most people lose at horse racing. This month's American Turf Monthly has an article by Barry Meadow where he addresses the matter of how many people really win or lose at horse racing. His conclusion: Who really knows.

I will add this to the thread about automatic tossouts. Be wary of horses that did not finish their previous race for reasons other than losing the jockey (pulled up, eased, vanned off, etc.).

Also, regarding automatic tosses, are we talking to win only, or not hitting the board at all?

[sq764]

Usually, it is said that 95% are losers. Your point is, of course, that most people lose at horse racing. This month's American Turf Monthly has an article by Barry Meadow where he addresses the matter of how many people really win or lose at horse racing. His conclusion: Who really knows.

I will add this to the thread about automatic tossouts. Be wary of horses that did not finish their previous race for reasons other than losing the jockey (pulled up, eased, vanned off, etc.).

Also, regarding automatic tosses, are we talking to win only, or not hitting the board at all?

Kingfin, excellent point.. .When I say automatic toss, for me anyway, it's only on the win end.. I play about 90% win plays and dabble in exotics only when I feel very strongly about a play.

It would be mighty difficult to toss anyone all the time for underneath wagers on your ticket.

[cj]

Well CJ, as you are very well aware, 99.9% of people that play horses are losers over the course of a year...

That seems a bit high to me, but that isn't really the point.

I thought the point was to leave that large percentage of losers. Why would anyone want to disregard a money making angle because it doesn't win very often, even if its 1 of 33 times?

[keilan]

Thanks for the off the wall advice, but I do just fine on my own. I am sure you are one of those 'I profited xxx dollars this year' guys' who love to mouth off.. I have always found the ones that are arrogant and love to act as if they know it all are consistent losers.. Sorry, but if I had to guess, I would lump you in there..

Like I said, to each his own, we all don't have to get there the same way..


Sq

How did I know you would re-act this way.

Others and I have shared some things with you that can only make you a better player and what do you do. Start calling me names etc.

It’s not arrogance if you can back it up – but that’s another lesson for you some other time.

Just for fun break down a race for us today, show me how “you get there”. I see a room full of players like you every time I go to the OBT.

By the way I will NOT again respond to any of your posts until you have broken down a race for us.

[sq764]

That seems a bit high to me, but that isn't really the point.

I thought the point was to leave that large percentage of losers. Why would anyone want to disregard a money making angle because it doesn't win very often, even if its 1 of 33 times?

out of those 33 times, how many times does the angle present itself..

And of those times it presents itself, is the payout profitable overall?

[sq764]

Sq

How did I know you would re-act this way.

Others and I have shared some things with you that can only make you a better player and what do you do. Start calling me names etc.

It’s not arrogance if you can back it up – but that’s another lesson for you some other time.

Just for fun break down a race for us today, show me how “you get there”. I see a room full of players like you every time I go to the OBT.

By the way I will NOT again respond to any of your posts until you have broken down a race for us.

I looked back at some of your posts, including the one where you called the nicely profitable Brisnet pick 6 pool ticket 'amateurish'.. Amazing you would call a ticket that turned a profit for everyone involved amateurish.. My only guess is that you thought you could structure it better.. Well, why dontcha?

I really could care less what you think of me or my handicapping, as you are making assumptions that you have no clue about. Just shows your shallowness..

I do appreciate you offering your 'lessons' to everyone here, but I don't think anyone really cares, sorry..

Good day

[cj]

out of those 33 times, how many times does the angle present itself..

And of those times it presents itself, is the payout profitable overall?

That was my point all along, you have to do the work to find out. Picking up a form for 5 minutes before the race goes off isn't going to do it.

The scenario I laid out was profitable. Yet, you said you would pass anyway. So, now you are probably losing even more by dismissing this guy. When you ignore a profitable situation, you are, in effect, increasing the takeout.

[sq764]

That was my point all along, you have to do the work to find out. Picking up a form for 5 minutes before the race goes off isn't going to do it.

The scenario I laid out was profitable. Yet, you said you would pass anyway. So, now you are probably losing even more by dismissing this guy. When you ignore a profitable situation, you are, in effect, increasing the takeout.

Who picks up the form 5 minutes before the race goes off?

You can't possibly bet every profitable situation... So your statement is not entirely true.. Passing a race is a no win/no lose situation..

[cj]

Who picks up the form 5 minutes before the race goes off?

You can't possibly bet every profitable situation... So your statement is not entirely true.. Passing a race is a no win/no lose situation..

Are you serious about the 5 minutes? A TON OF PEOPLE! Try your local OTB and watch guys race from monitor to monitor as the different simulcast tracks near post time. It can be comical!

I should have said by dismissing a profitable situation and still betting the race, you are probably losing even more in the long run, not by passing.

[sq764]

Are you serious about the 5 minutes? A TON OF PEOPLE! Try your local OTB and watch guys race from monitor to monitor as the different simulcast tracks near post time. It can be comical!

I should have said by dismissing a profitable situation and still betting the race, you are probably losing even more in the long run, not by passing.

Wow, I don't get to the otb much.. I play from home about 95% of the time.. Maybe I forget being at the track and the people that bet right at post..

I agree with your 2nd statement... I guess I treat it a little differently.. I wont play a horse with a 3% trainer, and if I think the horse actually has a shot and reasonable odds, I will likely pass the race entirely.. I would never just bet someone else to bet them.. that's insane.

[keilan]

I looked back at some of your posts, including the one where you called the nicely profitable Brisnet pick 6 pool ticket amateurish''.. Amazing you would call a ticket that turned a profit for everyone involved amateurish.. My only guess is that you thought you could structure it better.. Well, why dontcha?

I really could care less what you think of me or my handicapping, as you are making assumptions that you have no clue about. Just shows your shallowness..

I do appreciate you offering your 'lessons' to everyone here, but I don't think anyone really cares, sorry..

Good day

As I figured you have no balls and coward like a little boy who has been challenged.

Here's the lesson on "walking the talk"

Below is an email I sent to a couple guys I'm friendly with the night before the Breeders. Now lets say I have 20+k to build a ticket, do you think I hit the p6. The ticket that was played was amateurish regardless whether it cashed 5 out 6 or not, get over it.





-----Original Message-----
From: Keith Lantz [mailto:keilan@telusplanet.net]
Sent: Friday, October 29, 2004 5:21 PM
To: Craig Milkowski
Subject: Breeders Cup



Hello bro – here’s the rest of my races. I looked at your selections at your site and was dually impressed. I found your analysis to be extremely sound.


Race #1 – tough opening race. May use all four of these in the p3 horses

(1) (1) Pie and Burger

(2) (2) Runaway Choice

(7) Spanish Empire

(9) Snorter



Race #2 – “A” Ashado

“B” Island Fashion & Stella Jayne



Race #3 – “A” Sense of Style (adds lasix) and Culinary whom is sitting on her best effort. Don’t know how large her gas tank is but we’ll find out.



Race #4 - “A” Whipper, Antonius Pius and Nothing To Lose.



Race #5 – “A” Speightstown and Kela



Race $6 -- “A” Ouija Board

“B” Film Maker & Riskaverse (both should be decent odds)

Aubonne moves up if he gets lasix. (funny how we both had that marked)



Race #7 – I really think this another tough race – Roman Ruler was a good play against if he had left the blinkers on, but he is much better runner with them off. The 2 European horses Scaninavia and Wilko are question marks for me. I like Proud Accolade and Sun King. I’ll be using five horses in the p3 1-2-4-5-8. I’ll be watching the post parade/tote board and probably wouldn’t narrow it down much before then.



Race #8 – “A” Powercourt and Kitten’s Joy

“B” Magistretti



Race #9 – “A” Ghostzapper – Roses in May (luv this guy) and Pleasantly Perfect


Nothing too earth shattering in there –but I’ll spend the remaining time structuring some wagers and looking for possible overlays. Obviously I’ve spent a little more time looking at the card but I’ve basically treated it like any other day.


Good luck
K

[sq764]

As I figured you have no balls and coward like a little boy who has been challenged.

Here's the lesson on "walking the talk"

Below is an email I sent to a couple guys I'm friendly with the night before the Breeders. Now lets say I have 20+k to build a ticket, do you think I hit the p6. The ticket that was played was amateurish regardless whether it cashed 5 out 6 or not, get over it.





-----Original Message-----
From: Keith Lantz [mailto:keilan@telusplanet.net]
Sent: Friday, October 29, 2004 5:21 PM
To: Craig Milkowski
Subject: Breeders Cup



Hello bro – here’s the rest of my races. I looked at your selections at your site and was dually impressed. I found your analysis to be extremely sound.


Race #1 – tough opening race. May use all four of these in the p3 horses

(1) (1) Pie and Burger

(2) (2) Runaway Choice

(7) Spanish Empire

(9) Snorter



Race #2 – “A” Ashado

“B” Island Fashion & Stella Jayne



Race #3 – “A” Sense of Style (adds lasix) and Culinary whom is sitting on her best effort. Don’t know how large her gas tank is but we’ll find out.



Race #4 - “A” Whipper, Antonius Pius and Nothing To Lose.



Race #5 – “A” Speightstown and Kela



Race $6 -- “A” Ouija Board

“B” Film Maker & Riskaverse (both should be decent odds)

Aubonne moves up if he gets lasix. (funny how we both had that marked)



Race #7 – I really think this another tough race – Roman Ruler was a good play against if he had left the blinkers on, but he is much better runner with them off. The 2 European horses Scaninavia and Wilko are question marks for me. I like Proud Accolade and Sun King. I’ll be using five horses in the p3 1-2-4-5-8. I’ll be watching the post parade/tote board and probably wouldn’t narrow it down much before then.



Race #8 – “A” Powercourt and Kitten’s Joy

“B” Magistretti



Race #9 – “A” Ghostzapper – Roses in May (luv this guy) and Pleasantly Perfect


Nothing too earth shattering in there –but I’ll spend the remaining time structuring some wagers and looking for possible overlays. Obviously I’ve spent a little more time looking at the card but I’ve basically treated it like any other day.


Good luck
K
Holy shit, you are the greatest! I take it all back..

I gotta find that email that I sent my friends the night before the wall came tumbling down.. I was all over that..

Everyone here bows to your omnipotence oh great one.. Now go away.

[Tee]

SQ,

Been to the WarRoom lately or for that matter ever?

[sq764]

SQ,

Been to the WarRoom lately or for that matter ever?

No, I usually wager on my own, or with a few guys from PA board... Should I swing by for any reason?

[keilan]

Holy shit, you are the greatest! I take it all back..

I gotta find that email that I sent my friends the night before the wall came tumbling down.. I was all over that..

Everyone here bows to your omnipotence oh great one.. Now go away.


And you’re still a li’l girl.

What’s the matter hotshot “no balls” break down a race for us.

You’re yellow

[Tee]

No, I usually wager on my own, or with a few guys from PA board... Should I swing by for any reason?

I think u should swing by & see how it's done. :)

A little perspective will be gained by frequent visits & a little interaction with the "regulars."

You can still wager on your own - unless we twist your arm otherwise. :D

[sq764]

And you’re still a li’l girl.

What’s the matter hotshot “no balls” break down a race for us.

You’re yellow

It's funny to watch someone unravel when no one will bite.. You're cracking me up man, keep the names coming! I love it.

[sq764]

I think u should swing by & see how it's done. :)

A little perspective will be gained by frequent visits & a little interaction with the "regulars."

You can still wager on your own - unless we twist your arm otherwise. :D
I am quite comfortable with how I do it myself.. I am sure you 'regulars' are very profitable.. But me being comfortable with my own capping and you regulars doing well too are mutually exclusive events.. Let's all keep in the black..

[Tee]

Perhaps my last post in this thread, well last post in the direction the thread has turned.

Everyone is good in the clubhouse, quite often it's a different scenario on the 1st tee.

[sq764]

Perhaps my last post in this thread, well last post in the direction the thread has turned.

Everyone is good in the clubhouse, quite often it's a different scenario on the 1st tee.
I am not sure what you guys have to prove to anyone.. Is the point of this game to profit or to prove to others how great you are?

I think you guys have your priorities a little out of whack..

[shanta]

Guys,
This thread is quickly falling apart. I was actually learning a lot before the mayhem started.

Not that anyone needs a lawyer here BUT I have know Sq for like 3 years now. I have read some BS about racism and other crap directed at him.IMO nothin could be further from the truth.He is a straight up good guy. My opinion anyway.

BTW he also started the thread which I think is pretty darn good. Please can we get back on track. Good stuff here. :)

Richie

[keilan]

It's funny to watch someone unravel when no one will bite.. You're cracking me up man, keep the names coming! I love it.


The reason you won't bite is because you’re scared to fail yet once again. Maybe you would like to explain why you wouldn’t break down a race for us, instead of just running your lips.

Now doodle back to the “off topic” section – that’s where you belong.

There's no red/blue states out here in the handicapping community, no ones gonna back you until you start making some sense.

[Tee]

I am not sure what you guys have to prove to anyone.. Is the point of this game to profit or to prove to others how great you are?

I think you guys have your priorities a little out of whack..

The only & I mean only person I have anything to prove to as u stated is myself & myself only!!

Scott, if u think that my point is proving greatness then u are way, way off base.

I'm not much into arrogance or talk - I prefer to shove it down peoples throats in practice.

[sq764]

The reason you won't bite is because you’re scared to fail yet once again. Maybe you would like to explain why you wouldn’t break down a race for us, instead of just running your lips.

Now doodle back to the “off topic” section – that’s where you belong.

There's no red/blue states out here in the handicapping community, no ones gonna back you until you start making some sense.

Why do I need anyone to back me? You seem so wrapped up in that, it's so sad..Sounds like someone needs their ego massaged..

You are entertaining, I will give you that..



enjoy..

[sq764]

[QUOTE=Tee]The only & I mean only person I have anything to prove to as u stated is myself & myself only!!

QUOTE]

EXACTLY!! Thanks for finally showing Keilan some sense..

[Tee]

I agree with u 100% there Richie/Shanta about the thread falling apart. Now having said that, I call it like I see it - as they say.

I haven't read anything regarding racism and other crap in this thread.

Back on topic & will re-assert that there is no such animal as an automatic throwout.


Guys,
This thread is quickly falling apart. I was actually learning a lot before the mayhem started.

Not that anyone needs a lawyer here BUT I have know Sq for like 3 years now. I have read some BS about racism and other crap directed at him.IMO nothin could be further from the truth.He is a straight up good guy. My opinion anyway.

BTW he also started the thread which I think is pretty darn good. Please can we get back on track. Good stuff here. :)

Richie

[sq764]

The reason you won't bite is because you’re scared to fail yet once again. Maybe you would like to explain why you wouldn’t break down a race for us, instead of just running your lips.

Now doodle back to the “off topic” section – that’s where you belong.

There's no red/blue states out here in the handicapping community, no ones gonna back you until you start making some sense.

What's funny is I've gotten 2 emails this morning from other posters regarding this thread. They told me you love to hear yourself and love to tell others how great you think you are..
I am thinking they were on the money :-)

[ThoroughbredPhotos]

The bottom 20% of the morning line odds...It takes too much away from the profits to continue spend the time on these horses...

[keilan]

What's funny is I've gotten 2 emails this morning from other posters regarding this thread. They told me you love to hear yourself and love to tell others how great you think you are..
I am thinking they were on the money :-)


Post the emails in their entirety – I call bullshit

And soon as I mention that no one will take you seriously "until you start to make sense" you come up with this.

[Tee]

I see what you are saying, but consistent losers lose for a reason... If trainers win at 3%, that means they lose 32 times for every winner.. I'll take my chances and play the percentages..

Go ahead and play the percentages because probably 97 out of 100 times(give or take) u will be right.

But to take your handicapping/wagering to the next level u must wager those few odd times when the horse looks completely anomalous to what the statistics are showing.

$100(again give or take :) ) plus winners & huge exotic potential are created in this manner.

[shanta]

I am NOT very good wagering turf races. Matter of fact I am TERRIBLE compared with dirt racing.

The one "subset" I do ok with on the weeds believe it or not is maidens. I am tryin to figure out why. I always toss the chalk if he is "turf 1st out" or "dist 1st time". Maybe all the breeding and trainer stats cause some of these favs to be grossly overbet causing inflated prices on the others. My % is about the same as non mdn turf but the ROI is much higher. I don't know.

Richie

[sq764]

Post the emails in their entirety – I call bullshit

And soon as I mention that no one will take you seriously "until you start to make sense" you come up with this.

Dude, get over yourself.. You're a legend in your own mind.. No one gives a crap.. Go away.

[sq764]

Go ahead and play the percentages because probably 97 out of 100 times(give or take) u will be right.

But to take your handicapping/wagering to the next level u must wager those few odd times when the horse looks completely anomalous to what the statistics are showing.

$100(again give or take :) ) plus winners & huge exotic potential are created in this manner.

Wow, I wonder if every single person who bets horses for a living wagers at odd times when the horse looks completely anomalous.. Maybe some of them never do.. You think possibly??

I do love when people (like you and Keilan) think you have the holy grail and no deviation from that holy grail works for anyone.

I think for you 2 to get to the next level, you will be a little more open minded. You could learn a lot ;-)

[Tee]

Where the phuck did that reply come from!!!

I have no holy grail, never said I did. I think that was made clear in my first post in this discussion.

Why did u even start this thread?

It has become crystal clear that advice from people that just might be a bit more successful & knowledgeable than u in this game is useless to someone that knows everything about everything.

Open Minded? Once again I believe my first reply made that clear as well.

If u wan't to argue just for the sake of arguing - go right ahead. I will take my leave if that is all that u have to offer.

Wow, I wonder if every single person who bets horses for a living wagers at odd times when the horse looks completely anomalous.. Maybe some of them never do.. You think possibly??

I do love when people (like you and Keilan) think you have the holy grail and no deviation from that holy grail works for anyone.

I think for you 2 to get to the next level, you will be a little more open minded. You could learn a lot ;-)

[Bobby]

Any horse that has bled thru Lasix.

how do you know if a horse has bled thru Lasix? trainer stops using it suddenly?

[sq764]

Where the phuck did that reply come from!!!

I have no holy grail, never said I did. I think that was made clear in my first post in this discussion.

Why did u even start this thread?

It has become crystal clear that advice from people that just might be a bit more successful & knowledgeable than u in this game is useless to someone that knows everything about everything.

Open Minded? Once again I believe my first reply made that clear as well.

If u wan't to argue just for the sake of arguing - go right ahead. I will take my leave if that is all that u have to offer.
You did tell me to 'come to the war room and see how it's done', right??

See how what's done? I was assuming you were trying to infer that this is where the winning capping is done.. Was I off?

How do you even have the first idea of who's successful and who is not? There are likely thousands of members and lurkers here and you probably don't know 99% of them from Adam.. Yet somehow you assess that you have more knowledge and experience to offer.. Where do you possibly get this?

Look man, you do your thing, everyone else will do theirs.. If you're doing well, congratulations!! If you're losing, keep working at it, you'll get it.. Either way, good luck..

[keilan]

Dude, get over yourself.. You're a legend in your own mind.. No one gives a crap.. Go away.


You pretend to be an authority on every sport, every athlete who played or is still playing, every track announcer, everything “off topic” and now handicapping and wagering.

There’s only one guy here who needs to get over himself and that’s you.

You had this coming to you for a long time. Now go away I'm done with you.

[sq764]

You pretend to be an authority on every sport, every athlete who played or is still playing, every track announcer, everything “off topic” and now handicapping and wagering.

There’s only one guy here who needs to get over himself and that’s you.

You had this coming to you for a long time. Now go away I'm done with you.
Ok, if you say so.. So now do you promise to stop posting? That's fantastic

[Tee]

Did u see that little smiley face at the end of War Room query? That was a bit tongue in cheek. Or are u not familiar with internet humor?

But to answer your question there is some big time winning capping done in the chat.

Now u are talking about thousands of members and lurkers. I'm not talking about everyone,

I'm talking about you - & yes I feel strongly that I possess more knowledge and experience than you!!

You did tell me to 'come to the war room and see how it's done', right??

See how what's done? I was assuming you were trying to infer that this is where the winning capping is done.. Was I off?

How do you even have the first idea of who's successful and who is not? There are likely thousands of members and lurkers here and you probably don't know 99% of them from Adam.. Yet somehow you assess that you have more knowledge and experience to offer.. Where do you possibly get this?

Look man, you do your thing, everyone else will do theirs.. If you're doing well, congratulations!! If you're losing, keep working at it, you'll get it.. Either way, good luck..

[sq764]

Did u see that little smiley face at the end of War Room query? That was a bit tongue in cheek. Or are u not familiar with internet humor?

But to answer your question there is some big time winning capping done in the chat.

Now u are talking about thousands of members and lurkers. I'm not talking about everyone,

I'm talking about you - & yes I feel strongly that I possess more knowledge and experience than you!!

Well, that's fantastic that you feel that way, considering you know absolutely nothing about me :-) (smiley face)

It doesn't really matter if I agree or disagree with your statement, you'll think what you want and I'll know what I know :-) (smiley face).

Keep working at it, you'll get it!

Good day.

[PaceAdvantage]

How about cooling out....everyone....

[Bobby]

How about cooling out....everyone....

yea, i agree. this is a horse racing board not a tity baby board. who cares about the 3% deal. if you want to bet a 3% trainer then bet a 3% trainer. it's ur $. do what you want to with it.

Anyway, why can't one of you cappers in the black answer my question: how do you know if a horse has bleed on lasix? trainer stops giving it to him?

[Tee]

I don't have to know anything about u personally, I know enough by what u are posting regarding the sport of horse racing.

Please enlighten me though - do u have a job outside of horse racing or is your entire income provide via winning wagers?

Your dismissal & arguments about sound handicapping ideals & methods is all I need to know.

I just hope u bet heavily into the same pools that I do, cuz I enjoy your money - keep it coming.

Take everything that I say as criticism & respond in like manner. It is not my intent, but I won't mind firing back again and again.


Well, that's fantastic that you feel that way, considering you know absolutely nothing about me :-) (smiley face)

It doesn't really matter if I agree or disagree with your statement, you'll think what you want and I'll know what I know :-) (smiley face).

Keep working at it, you'll get it!

Good day.

[sq764]

I don't have to know anything about u personally, I know enough by what u are posting regarding the sport of horse racing.

Please enlighten me though - do u have a job outside of horse racing or is your entire income provide via winning wagers?

Your dismissal & arguments about sound handicapping ideals & methods is all I need to know.

I just hope u bet heavily into the same pools that I do, cuz I enjoy your money - keep it coming.

Take everything that I say as criticism & respond in like manner. It is not my intent, but I won't mind firing back again and again.

No, I have a real job.. I certainly wouldn't be able to live off of horseracing wagers.. I don't have the nerve or desire to try to be a professional capper. If I was single with no kids, it would be interesting to try.. but thats not the case.

If you think that about me, that's cool. Really doesn't affect the price of rice in my world..

We probably don't play in the same pools, I only play night tracks.. But I am sure if our money crosses paths on some races, we do our share of exchanging money.. Part of the game.

I take what you say as entertainment, not criticism.. Life's too short to be critical of everything.

[Tee]

Anyway, why can't one of you cappers in the black answer my question: how do you know if a horse has bleed on lasix? trainer stops giving it to him?

The Graded Stakes performers that I have seen bleed through their lasix usually will not race again. Of course this depends on the severity of the bleeding episode.

Heavenly Prize is an example of this & I believe Gentlemen is as well.

[sq764]

yea, i agree. this is a horse racing board not a tity baby board. who cares about the 3% deal. if you want to bet a 3% trainer then bet a 3% trainer. it's ur $. do what you want to with it.

Anyway, why can't one of you cappers in the black answer my question: how do you know if a horse has bleed on lasix? trainer stops giving it to him?

Bobby, hope this link helps:

http://www.thinkythings.org/horseracing/lasixinfo.html

[Tee]

I take what you say as entertainment, not criticism

Believe me 100% serious as a massive heart attack when I say that what I say should not be taken as entertainment.

[Valuist]

Bobby-

I didnt see your question earlier. SOmetimes it will say it in the comment area in the DRF pps. Sometimes you have to read about it in an interview. And it doesn't hurt to know a trainer or two. You won't find these every day but when you do, avoid them.

[sq764]

Believe me 100% serious as a massive heart attack when I say that what I say should not be taken as entertainment.
Sorry, but it is :-) (another smiley face)

[Bobby]

thanks guys

[Tee]

Sorry, but it is :-) (another smiley face)

& u know this how?

[sq764]

& u know this how?

Oh God, for the sanity of the rest of the site, let's stop this conversation..

Let's agree that we do things differently, with the same goals in mind.. How successful we are at it, we will only know ourselves..

[sjk]

Bobby,

If a horse bleeds through Lasix I would expect him to get other medications in addition to rather than instead of the Lasix. When that happens they need all the help they can get.

[rokitman]

What are some automatic throwouts for everyone? I have a few that I stick by:

- Any maiden who is 0 for 8 or worse

- Any jock or trainer that is 0 for 25 or worse

- Any horse that is 0 for 10 or more at the distance

Of course, there are occasions where I get beat with these, but I have found these to be fairly steadfast rules for me..


Any posts by sq764. Relax, just a little Internet Humor sq! :cool: <smiley!

Throw out-BRIS/TSN Power Rating of 1 in post position 1 in races 6.5F or less. Probably applies, to some extent, in 7F+ also but that is not my focus so I don't know that to be true.

[Tom]

Database results for the 5 yo maiden:

All distances/surfaces
Maiden Claiming or MSW
5 yos only
1,2,or 3 prior starts

#H 1741
#W 133
#p 138

Bet $3482
Ret $2261

W% 7.6%
ROI .65


For HTR users, 35 were K1 and 25 were K2, for 45% K1 or 2
(K is the flagship HTR rating)

[Tom]

Here is an article by Gordon Pine that has a list of automatic thorwouts:

http://www.netcapper.com/TrackTractsArchive/TT010126.htm

[46zilzal]

Full cup blinkered horses