Best early-late

[grahors]

Greetings,
I was re-reading an old Always newsletter. It was saying..to find the best early or late horses, add the E2+spd or LP+spd. Winner should come from top 3 in one of the categories. Wouldn't a "bettor" indicator be pace of race at E2 or LP plus speed of horse? (ala Ray Taulbot)? Has anyone tried this?
Thanks,
Grahors

[bobbyb]

Wouldn't a "bettor" indicator be pace of the race @ E2 or LP............?

IMHO 2 things to consider - know how your track(s), play at diff. distances & Current Bias.
The weather (current track surface condition) and the guy driving the tractor, pulling the harrow, between races can turn a day ugly.

Speed Friendly: I use PACE - Speed Tiring: I dump the PACE numbers and zero in on jockey/current positional bias/form/suitability @ the distance.

bobbyb

[Valuist]

What about main tracks that favor stalkers? Arlington is one that comes to mind. It seemed like 90% of the winners layed about 3rd to 5th, and about 3-4 wide. I think the early/late route would work well on tight turned tracks with long straightaways like the FG or Pimlico.

[Tom]

I have found rating early and late using BRIS numbers by adding E1 andE2 for early and E2 and LP for late,

[andicap]

I add Hidden Pace (last two fractions) plus final time for late.

For early I too have found tentative success adding pace of race to horse's final time, but I've also found that you can't use just one recent race; you have to look at a horse's overall recent record. E.g.

Horse A 207, 201, 200 (using HTR's Quirin-like figures)
Horse B 204,203 203.

I've found Horse B is often a better early speed bet, as he is more consistent.
I agree that bias is very important in assesing early speed. While tracks usually favor early speed, there are days when horses further back than 1 length have no shot at all and others where stalkers and closers can win if the pace is fast enough. On the other hand, you know there's a killer bias when horses go in 44.3 and still win or barely get nipped.