True

[crestridge]

True Line hit the #7 horse today @ TPX in the 7th Race for $91.40. TL gave a probability of 6-1, the ML odds were 30-1.

[PaceAdvantage]

That's a lotta overlay!

[geroge.burns99]

True Line hit the #7 horse today @ TPX in the 7th Race for $91.40. TL gave a probability of 6-1, the ML odds were 30-1.

I always like to handicap stuff like this when someone brings it up....


First thing I look at is the favorite......


The 3/5 ML favorite was off for 341 days.....

I don't care if he was Secretariat , a horse like that will not get my $2

DONE!!!

Race gets to be an open and value

[crestridge]

Good point, suspect coming off injury, etc. PA, yes, when I see this, it's probably worth $2.00. When you see a entrant going off @ 44-1 and win, is not often. However, in the parameters offered by TL, this #7 entrant had the most parameters ranked 1-3, 7 parameters, the closest was #2, with only 6 parameters listed 1-3 (the entrant going off as fav.) No other entrant had more than 2 parameters listed, ranked 1-3. I didn't bet the horse, because I haven't been using this TL program much, but I guess I need to pay attention. The contender selection in this program is very good. If you have this application, you may wish to revisit!!

[crestridge]

I lied, the #2 entrant had 8 parameters listed, sorry!!

[ranchwest]

I had that horse as top rated outside the favorite. The favorite did have an impressive workout tab, but broke through the gate prestart and that is why 1/2 is so dicey. I remember telling a friend one time to pass a race because the favorite was so strong... first stride out of the gate the jockey flew over his head.

[crestridge]

Isn't that always the major question? What's the evaluation of the fav.? It's horse racing, and requires a quant database to answer the question long term ROI. Probably means most will pass on a 44-1 shot, because it's very rare they win. However, when all the pieces are put together, there was certainly a possibility of some good effort. The other entrants didn't show much. So many variables in this challenging endeavor, almost to many.

But I still plug away, trying to learn, something, and this race is a "teacher".

What have I learned? Don't necessarily bypass a big overlay, don't automatically ignore as a possibility, especially when the "quant application" says to "look"!!!

[ranchwest]

It's all numbers. If you never bet a 44/1, you'll never hit one. If you bet every 44/1, you'll go broke.

[crestridge]

Yes, that's so true!

[andicap]

What is True Line? Googled and couldn't find any info on it.

[geroge.burns99]

What is True Line? Googled and couldn't find any info on it.

Most likely an old software program....

[lefty359]

Yes it's an old software put out by the late Jim Selvedge.

[geroge.burns99]

And most likely uses feet per second ..

way past its usefulness...

[ranchwest]

And most likely uses feet per second ..

way past its usefulness...

If it still picks winners, it isn't past the usefulness of some people.

[geroge.burns99]

If it still picks winners, it isn't past the usefulness of some people.

It probably does pick winners ...

at a 29% clip and a ROI of .81


:bang:

[ranchwest]

It probably does pick winners ...

at a 29% clip and a ROI of .81


:bang:

And you know this because...

[geroge.burns99]

And you know this because...

Just being presumptuous ......:rolleyes:

[Tom]

And most likely uses feet per second ..

way past its usefulness...

When did fps stop being useful?

[geroge.burns99]

When did fps stop being useful?

because everyone has the info ....and using it alone won't get you anywhere

[ranchwest]

because everyone has the info ....and using it alone won't get you anywhere

There's many ways to use fps, so there is a choice. While many people have some fps measurement, they don't all use the same one. The more important aspect... which line?

[geroge.burns99]

There's many ways to use fps, so there is a choice. While many people have some fps measurement, they don't all use the same one. The more important aspect... which line?

This is the 80's and 90's thinking....

Like I said...way past its usefulness

[Tom]

because everyone has the info ....and using it alone won't get you anywhere


Who uses it alone?
I got 5 winners and a place at Tam Derby Day the other day using MPH.

[Tom]

There's many ways to use fps, so there is a choice. While many people have some fps measurement, they don't all use the same one. The more important aspect... which line?

Which horse and which line.....timeless. :ThmbUp:

[crestridge]

True Line's contender selection is probably no different than any major application offered. There is a slight difference in the paceline selection, which goes back as far as needed to find what each entrant can produce. This paceline selection doesn't just use the last most recent paceline only. It may go back 10 pacelines, according to the instructions for paceline selection. Most the time it picks one of the best pacelines of the entrant. Hence, once in awhile, a entrant who hasn't done well currently, may have a history of doing better, "awhile" back Thus giving a longshot a chance to win.

I use the software to supplement my other "tool", JCapper. JCapper is my main "man", but I use whatever helps me. And it is helpful.

[ranchwest]

This is the 80's and 90's thinking....

Like I said...way past its usefulness

You've got quite a sense of humor.

[geroge.burns99]

True Line's contender selection is probably no different than any major application offered. There is a slight difference in the paceline selection, which goes back as far as needed to find what each entrant can produce. This paceline selection doesn't just use the last most recent paceline only. It may go back 10 pacelines, according to the instructions for paceline selection. Most the time it picks one of the best pacelines of the entrant. Hence, once in awhile, a entrant who hasn't done well currently, may have a history of doing better, "awhile" back Thus giving a longshot a chance to win.

I use the software to supplement my other "tool", JCapper. JCapper is my main "man", but I use whatever helps me. And it is helpful.

had JCP for 7 years ....

How you doing with UDM's?

[crestridge]

Not usin' lots of UDM's, mainly generating/using odds lines, waiting until last few seconds to observe what the "crowd" gives me. Lookin' for some value...playin' with different ideas, always attempin' to improve my research. Can't find another application that "fits" my appetite. It's so comprehensive, of course if I could improve physical handicapping, I would do a lot better.

How bout' yourself, what applications are you using?

[geroge.burns99]

Not usin' lots of UDM's, mainly generating/using odds lines, waiting until last few seconds to observe what the "crowd" gives me. Lookin' for some value...playin' with different ideas, always attempin' to improve my research. Can't find another application that "fits" my appetite. It's so comprehensive, of course if I could improve physical handicapping, I would do a lot better.

How bout' yourself, what applications are you using?

I moved on from JCapper ...

With HTR last 1.5 years ......much more opportunities to handicap races..

with multiple programs including research and even an AI Sim program

along with building Spot Plays with a multitude amount of factors

JCapper was much more restraint on what you can do with it..

[crestridge]

I'm glad you found you "comfort zone"...that's really important...I've heard good things about the program...these more comprehensive programs, fit one person well, then another person may not "fit"...that's the key, to find the "comfort zone"...I've tried some very expensive programs, one even with AI, but I just couldn't "fit in". I've settled in now, and feel good about JCP.

But our love of this endeavor will always require research, changes are always happening. I think, maybe, multiple programs improves the "bottom line".

[geroge.burns99]

I'm glad you found you "comfort zone"...that's really important...I've heard good things about the program...these more comprehensive programs, fit one person well, then another person may not "fit"...that's the key, to find the "comfort zone"...I've tried some very expensive programs, one even with AI, but I just couldn't "fit in". I've settled in now, and feel good about JCP.

But our love of this endeavor will always require research, changes are always happening. I think, maybe, multiple programs improves the "bottom line".

agree crest...

if you every want to talk and exchange ideas ...shoot me a PM

[crestridge]

You "bet" ...

[wiretowire68]

How do they calculate the MPH, what is the formula for that?