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cj
12-23-2004, 03:31 AM
From an email I received:


Annual Year-End Customer Appreciation Special

All Thoro-Graph data is Free for Race Days 12/26 through 12/31.

If you don't already have an account, it takes just a few minutes to register
with a major credit card.
(You are under absolutely no obligation to ever make a purchase after the period of the special giveaway)

Click here to open your account

www.thorograph.com

sq764
12-23-2004, 10:11 AM
Originally posted by cj
From an email I received:


Annual Year-End Customer Appreciation Special

All Thoro-Graph data is Free for Race Days 12/26 through 12/31.

If you don't already have an account, it takes just a few minutes to register
with a major credit card.
(You are under absolutely no obligation to ever make a purchase after the period of the special giveaway)

Click here to open your account

www.thorograph.com



CJ, can you give a quick and dirty on the best way to use the t-graph sheets?? I have always wanted to take a few moments to look at the sheets closely, but never did..

Would be interesting to check them out with results to see how they are used best..

cj
12-23-2004, 11:21 AM
I've never actually purchase the numbers, but they are basically speed numbers that incorporate ground loss and weight. There is a ton of info on the site, and the have a Race of the Week as well. The lower the number, the better. They have a lot of loyal clients at $25-30 a race card, so they can't be too bad.

I don't agree with all of the philosphies they espouse there, but as far as final time numbers go, they are good in my opinion.

blind squirrel
12-23-2004, 12:16 PM
when TG gives away their product i use the
TG ANALYSIS sheets.i'm able to find a longshot
or two.....they aren't worth $30,BEYERS or BRIS
are just as good.

Figman
12-23-2004, 12:42 PM
When you have CJ's #s available to us, what makes you think that Jerry Brown's numbers are any better?

From what I've seen, both are efforts are quite good but I would vote for CJ's everyday body of work. It's quite an accomplishment.

garyoz
12-23-2004, 12:42 PM
they aren't worth $30,BEYERS or BRIS are just as good

First, TG Sheets cost $25 for the first set then discounted to $15 and $10 on a per day per track basis. Ragozin Sheets are $35, and I forget the discount for multiple tracks.

I think anyone who has seriously used speed figures during the last 20 years will take issue with the statement that Bris or Beyer even approach Ragozin of Thorograph. IMHO opinion, the Beyers or Bris aren't even in the same universe as Ragozin or Thorograph figures. But, this is a long standing debate, but usually focused on what's better, Ragozin or Thorograph. Personally I think the Beyer's are so bad that they help make it possible to beat this game because the ill-informed and lazy use them (e.g., betting against vulnerable horses showing a double Beyer Top that isn't really a Top).

It is really a nice gesture and hopefully a good business development move by JB and Company at Thorograph to make the data available. There is plenty of information available on the Thorograph site on how to use the service. In the future, you might start looking at the Race of the Week Analysis, where analysis is provided. If you wanted to get really serious, you can get Len Ragozin's book, The Odds Must Be Crazy, which is ok, but not the greatest.

Valuist
12-23-2004, 01:16 PM
I think the best thing about T-Graph isn't their numbers but the trainer and stallion data they supply, as well as the way they format the numbers. They do make it easier to spot potential trends

bettheoverlay
12-23-2004, 03:18 PM
Anybody have any statistical data showing TG #s being compared to Beyer and Bris? Last race Beyer winning close to 30%, how does TG perform?

I know, it's all in the intrepretation.

Zaf
12-23-2004, 04:12 PM
The interpretation is very subjective. I've never seen a group with so many excuses for there losses ( bounces, regression , patterns ) and all the while they are ignoring Pace. How can you ignore Pace to make good figures ???

I am using CJ's numbers and I agree 100 % with what Figman stated above. If I want to go nuts I'll fire up my Equisim for a deeper look into a race. My data costs about $2 per Race Card.

I can't justify paying $30 for numbers that ignore pace.

ZAFONIC

garyoz
12-23-2004, 07:17 PM
Anybody have any statistical data showing TG #s being compared to Beyer and Bris? Last race Beyer winning close to 30%, how does TG perform?

I do own the classic 1994 study by Sport Stat comparing speed figures from 6 sources. The single best category for all the services is best of last 3 and have odds greater than 4 to 1. For tracks other than HOL for 30 days in the Spring of 1994. Ragozin had a positive 11% ROI. Thorograph negative 4% ROI and Beyers a negative 10% ROI. Bris reformulated their numbers since the study so not relevant. Bris did have a negative 13% ROI for this category but that finding should be ignored.

That is not how you a supposed to use Speed Figs. Also, this study is so old, it is probably meaningless.

In my experience serious players at least know what the Ragozin or Thorograph numbers are, even if they choose to ignore them. They account for alot of tote action and can provide context and nuance.

Valuist
12-23-2004, 07:20 PM
What criteria was used to compare those services? Last race only? Last race at a relevant distance/surface? Best fig in the past year at a similar distance?

garyoz
12-23-2004, 07:37 PM
The study uses the figures at any distance and from any track. Not the best way to use Speed Figs, but then again bettors often cite best last race fig. I know Ragozin doesn't think that distance differentials are that important.

It is very difficult to develop a workable methodology to compare something like speed figures. Once again, I'd take this study with a grain of salt. Just responding to the question. I would also think that Beyer numbers are played more heavily by the casual player than they were 10 years ago, so it is probably more difficult to find value.

As stated, this particular analysis is best of last 3 races. They also do last race and other analysis.

Jeff P
12-23-2004, 08:54 PM
Originally posted by GaryOz:
Also, this study is so old, it is probably meaningless

I've been a Bris customer since 1996. As recently as 1999, it was possible for me to turn a profit simply by betting the horse with the highest Bris Speed Figure (considering only the 3 most recent starts) if the top horse if it went to post at odds of 6-1 or greater. Obviously, this is no longer possible. Things have changed greatly since then. I think there has been an enormous proliferation of players getting their data online in the past 10 years.

So far as the effectiveness of Bris Speed Figures, here's what I show for the past 90 days just looking at different race types broken out by rank for Bris Speed Figure. These are just the pure numbers. I've made no attempt to break any ties:



999 Divisor
DIRT SPRINTS (From Index File: F:\FALL_2004\pl_profile.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 26080.70 26382.40 26118.50
Bet -35670.00 -35670.00 -35670.00
Gain -9589.30 -9287.60 -9551.50

Wins 2139 4263 6328
Plays 17835 17835 17835
PCT .1199 .2390 .3548

ROI 0.7312 0.7396 0.7322
Avg Mut 12.19 6.19 4.13


By: 62 rankForLastRaceBrisFig

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
1 -606.90 4766.00 0.8727 646 2383 .2711
2 -1157.60 4466.00 0.7408 374 2233 .1675
3 -1026.20 4398.00 0.7667 304 2199 .1382
4 -961.00 4540.00 0.7883 259 2270 .1141
5 -1657.40 4526.00 0.6338 167 2263 .0738
6 -1061.30 3962.00 0.7321 123 1981 .0621
7 -563.10 3216.00 0.8249 117 1608 .0728
8 -1152.40 2354.00 0.5105 61 1177 .0518
9 -472.00 1648.00 0.7136 44 824 .0534
10 -587.10 968.00 0.3935 15 484 .0310
11 -169.80 534.00 0.6820 15 267 .0562
12 -187.40 254.00 0.2622 2 127 .0157
13 -24.00 24.00 0.0000 0 12 .0000
14 -12.00 12.00 0.0000 0 6 .0000
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
16 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000






999 Divisor
DIRT ROUTES (From Index File: F:\FALL_2004\pl_profile.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 14506.10 14275.60 14454.70
Bet -18744.00 -18744.00 -18744.00
Gain -4237.90 -4468.40 -4289.30

Wins 1174 2343 3465
Plays 9372 9372 9372
PCT .1253 .2500 .3697

ROI 0.7739 0.7616 0.7712
Avg Mut 12.36 6.09 4.17


By: 62 rankForLastRaceBrisFig

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
1 -302.40 2630.00 0.8850 354 1315 .2692
2 -661.10 2452.00 0.7304 203 1226 .1656
3 -251.50 2372.00 0.8940 177 1186 .1492
4 -504.90 2326.00 0.7829 136 1163 .1169
5 -86.10 2242.00 0.9616 121 1121 .1079
6 -615.70 2010.00 0.6937 70 1005 .0697
7 -507.00 1716.00 0.7045 52 858 .0606
8 -500.80 1182.00 0.5763 31 591 .0525
9 -345.40 798.00 0.5672 12 399 .0301
10 -250.90 542.00 0.5371 10 271 .0369
11 -271.60 306.00 0.1124 2 153 .0131
12 63.20 142.00 1.4451 1 71 .0141
13 -18.00 18.00 0.0000 0 9 .0000
14 -8.00 8.00 0.0000 0 4 .0000





999 Divisor
TURF SPRINTS (From Index File: F:\FALL_2004\pl_profile.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 1528.60 1276.60 1210.70
Bet -1734.00 -1734.00 -1734.00
Gain -205.40 -457.40 -523.30

Wins 103 201 299
Plays 867 867 867
PCT .1188 .2318 .3449

ROI 0.8815 0.7362 0.6982
Avg Mut 14.84 6.35 4.05


By: 62 rankForLastRaceBrisFig

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
1 -58.00 224.00 0.7411 21 112 .1875
2 29.80 204.00 1.1461 20 102 .1961
3 -46.20 244.00 0.8107 14 122 .1148
4 4.80 208.00 1.0231 17 104 .1635
5 -56.00 186.00 0.6989 8 93 .0860
6 -135.00 186.00 0.2742 6 93 .0645
7 64.80 146.00 1.4438 3 73 .0411
8 11.60 138.00 1.0841 6 69 .0870
9 31.00 98.00 1.3163 4 49 .0816
10 -20.80 52.00 0.6000 1 26 .0385
11 -32.00 32.00 0.0000 0 16 .0000





999 Divisor
TURF ROUTES (From Index File: F:\FALL_2004\pl_profile.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 7421.90 7392.50 7075.10
Bet -9186.00 -9186.00 -9186.00
Gain -1764.10 -1793.50 -2110.90

Wins 509 1014 1514
Plays 4593 4593 4593
PCT .1108 .2208 .3296

ROI 0.8080 0.8048 0.7702
Avg Mut 14.58 7.29 4.67


By: 62 rankForLastRaceBrisFig

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
1 -45.50 1240.00 0.9633 140 620 .2258
2 -93.10 1048.00 0.9112 91 524 .1737
3 23.40 1132.00 1.0207 81 566 .1431
4 -206.00 912.00 0.7741 45 456 .0987
5 -264.50 952.00 0.7222 44 476 .0924
6 -281.50 944.00 0.7018 31 472 .0657
7 -236.30 908.00 0.7398 30 454 .0661
8 -311.80 724.00 0.5693 18 362 .0497
9 58.20 588.00 1.0990 18 294 .0612
10 -174.20 420.00 0.5852 6 210 .0286
11 -128.00 210.00 0.3905 4 105 .0381
12 -98.00 98.00 0.0000 0 49 .0000
13 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000