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View Full Version : Here's a little tidbit that you might find interesting.

CamptownRaces.com
03-29-2002, 02:02 AM
While playing the toteboard patterns, I've noticed over the years a common factor to most "Failed Favorites". (Odds on favorites that run 3rd or worst)

Taking a closer look after being beat time and time again by what appeared to be a solid favorite in the odds, I noticed that well over 62% (over 2,000 race sample space) of those favorites that failed had too much money in the show pool compared to the win & place pools.

A horse that has balance wagering on it has the place pool just under half of what the win pool is, and the show pool should be just about half of what the place pool is. (give or take a bit) A favorite that has too much to show (65% or more of the place pool) is lacking the full confidence of the public. The Pattern from the public is now saying this horse will more than likely be out of the Exacta. (This does NOT WORK at tracks that are known for show bettors)

This produces Great Payoffs when you can eliminate an "odds on favorite" out of the Exacta. It's a good idea to use this "Failed Favorite" as a TRI key by placing it in the show hole. Find the Exacta, and you should hit the TRI... These same "Failed Fav's" run 3rd an average of 74%...


Charles
andicap
03-29-2002, 08:09 AM
I have to admit, I find these things fascinating -- probably because I've never studied them before and studying the public's psychology and patterns is really interesting.
jackad
03-29-2002, 04:54 PM
Charles,
Didn't you suggest elsewhere that one of your favorite betting strategies was to box a "failed favorite" with a 3rd, 4th, and 5th odds horse in an exacta? Why do that if 74% of failed favorites come in to show?
Jack

P.S. Where can one buy your betting straegies?
CamptownRaces.com
03-29-2002, 06:20 PM
Originally posted by jackad
Charles,
Didn't you suggest elsewhere that one of your favorite betting strategies was to box a "failed favorite" with a 3rd, 4th, and 5th odds horse in an exacta? Why do that if 74% of failed favorites come in to show?
Jack

P.S. Where can one buy your betting straegies?

No.... That was for a "Solid Favorite"

A favorite that has balanced wagering across the board and gives you no signs that it might fail. That's when you have to look to see if the exacta is "chalk" or not...

If it is, only play the two fav's.

It's when you think the fav is good, but don't think it's chalk that you key the fav to the 3rd, 4th, & 5th lowest odd horses from the 3 minutes to post odds.

All of my books are on my website at http://www.camptownraces.com

Charles