Any Comments on Declan's Moon Hollywood Futurity Win

[JustRalph]

http://www.drf.com/images/declansmoon_200x172_121804.jpg

I watched the replay tonight after reading the DRF article on the race.

I think this guy looks like the real deal. I would be interested in hearing from the Pace and number guys here on the board.

He looked to be well in hand against this field. He looked like he crossed the line with much more in the tank..............

[kingfin66]

Ralph,

I'm not a pace/speed guy, but I will add my comments anyway. I totally concur with you. This is one good horse. If they can keep him right into the spring, he will definitely be in the Derby mix. 4 for 4 and he waxed a couple of really good horse in Proud Accolade and Wilko.

[Speed Figure]

Very good race. I think he's the real deal. I gave him a 105.

[maxwell]

I thought it was a great race to pass ... it was.

He's no slouch!

[TOOZ]

Johnny V going to Afleet Alex last week told me Proud Accolade was a no bet. Wilko shouldn't have beaten Afleet Alex if it wasn't for Rose's second butcher ride in a row, and he wouldn't have beaten Sweet Catomine. I really thought DM would have been 3-5, that was the most generous 6-5 I've ever received. Waited for that race all week, and the wait was worthwhile.

[Suff]

This Colt has the look of the one to beat. No doubt. I watched the race a few times , the effort looked like the best i've seen by a 2YO so far. It also showed that Wilko was no fluke either.

SO many things need to go right between now and May, but if they do.... He's the Favorite in my mind.

[cj]

Don't forget about the filly, Sweet Catomine, she looks really special so far. I did not have this opinion of Halfbridled or Storm Flag Flying.

[Suff]

Originally posted by cj
Don't forget about the filly, Sweet Catomine, she looks really special so far. I did not have this opinion of Halfbridled or Storm Flag Flying.

Hi Cj

What kind of Numbers do you come up with from the Declan moon effort?

[cj]

I haven't looked at it yet, later in the week I'll see what I come up with and post here.

[ceejay]

Good race.

My only comment is that I hate Vic's contrived calls.

[RXB]

Yep, Vic is a "mute button" guy for me.

Figure-wise, I have the race as a shade above par for the final time, right about average at the 6f pace call, and a little below average for the 4f pace call.

The horse is 4-for-4, and his adjusted times are decent, so obviously he's a good 2YO. But his opposition hasn't been anything fantastic, and from watching SoCal racing for the last 11 years I can tell you that Ron Ellis doesn't tend to get a whole lot of starts out of his horses. His win % is always solid, but his horses' careers usually aren't long and they tend to include plenty of layoffs. Three tough Triple Crown races in five weeks? I doubt it.

So don't take any short number in the Derby futures book, and don't even think about the Triple Crown.

[toetoe]

vic (town crier) stauffer is the worst. now, vic espinoza is my favorite jockey. he used to chase rbaze up @ ggf & bm, now leads him in t.c.wins, 2 to 0. i hope they don't make him choose too soon between declan & pegasus wannabe. the odds both will even start in the derby are < even money. think about it. hey, how about a future pool for getting to the gate the 1st sat. in may @ cd?

[Suff]

I haven't looked at it yet, later in the week I'll see what I come up with and post here.

No Pressure and I apologize for asking a 2nd time if it is not on your Radar,,,

But did you get a chance to work your numbers on this race?

Thanks

Mike

[cj]

Hey suff,

I looked over the card and the race, and found it decent, but nothing spectacular.

I gave a pace rating of 93 and a speed rating of 96. Its a nice rationing of speed and indicates he can go further, but the number is nothing special. Based on this race, I'd say he's overrated. Being in SoCal though, it may take a while before we really know for sure, as he'll probably face 4 and 5 overmatched horses each time out unless he ships.

[cj]

As a means of comparison, Rockport Harbor and Galloping Grocer recorded figures of Pace - 104 Speed - 102 in the Remsen, at a longer distance, three weeks earlier. I'd rate either one ahead of DM at this point.

[Bobby]

yea, cj I agree. I think DM is a little overrated at this point. I don't think Wilko will end up being a factor in April or May. I think Afllet Alex and Rockport look strong, but look what's happened to past 2 yr old stars.

[Suff]

As a means of comparison, Rockport Harbor and Galloping Grocer recorded figures of Pace - 104 Speed - 102 in the Remsen, at a longer distance, three weeks earlier. I'd rate either one ahead of DM at this point.

INteresting. Thanks CJ. I appreciatte your work and your thoughts...

Now... who the heck is this "Lost in a Fog" that just took over the 2 YO best beyer list with a 109...


through 01/03/2005
HORSE TRK DATE BEYER
FIGURE

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lost in the Fog TUP 26 Dec 109
Declan's Moon DMR 08 Sep 107
Roman Ruler DMR 08 Sep 106
Devils Disciple CRC 25 Jul 103
Roman Ruler DMR 15 Aug 103
Afleet Alex SAR 29 Jul 102
Diligent Prospect HOL 30 May 102
Galloping Grocer AQU 27 Nov 102

[cj]

He's an undefeated colt, broke the track record at Turf Paradise in his last start. Not the stake record, the TRACK record, and the track wasn't that fast my TuP conditions. Interesting horse, but connections seem to think he'll be a sprinter.

[Richard]

Okay,we're all bellied up to the bar and talkin'.So (for discussion purposes)let's assume that for now,DM is the horse to beat.Let's move him around a little.We've seen him at 8.5f so let's move DM up to 9f and start him in the Florida Derby.Assuming he smokes the field,put him im either the Bluegrass Stakes or the Wood Memorial.Whatchyall think?Maybe the bartender should cut me off?