funny trend

[46zilzal]

In Sartin methodology have noticed a funny thing: when a horse is moving DOWN in total energy and moving UP (higher) in percent median they are going off form. Lalia Page (Aqu 5th 12/15) and Precious Perfect (AQU 7th 12/16) showed this pattern recently but it has been a resoundingly good way to LESSEN the chances of a false favorite LIKE Pico Central last out.

Usually takes a three race sample to show this as Dynamite Duck (5th 12/14 Tampa)..

Am in the process of having SartinALums check this out and will report when I have a bigger sample.

[andicap]

Originally posted by 46zilzal
In Sartin methodology have noticed a funny thing: when a horse is moving DOWN in total energy and moving UP (higher) in percent median they are going off form. Lalia Page (Aqu 5th 12/15) and Precious Perfect (AQU 7th 12/16) showed this pattern recently but it has been a resoundingly good way to LESSEN the chances of a false favorite LIKE Pico Central last out.

Usually takes a three race sample to show this as Dynamite Duck (5th 12/14 Tampa)..

Am in the process of having SartinALums check this out and will report when I have a bigger sample.


How is total energy computed? Is it like AP?
I'm familiar with % Early and % median.

[46zilzal]

Total energy is the sum of the velocities of the three pace segments..By then going back and dividing a single pace segment velocity by the total, you get that percentage of the total. The per cent meidan is the sum of the percentages from the first two pace segments.

[Binder]

Hi
Your post looks interesting
But If you really were to say this is from the Sartin Methodology
Doc would advice "hiding any horse that you would not consider a bet in this case the low price favorite

This subject reminds me of Wm Scotts form
factors from hiis book "How will your horse run today/"

It seem like this is a version of his third (of the 4) factors
The one were you rated the running line of the last two and base how the horse ran at the 2nd call and final time
If the rating showed improvement then the favorite got a plus
if not, It got either a minus or a nuatral depending on Days Surface and work outs Post Position Running Stlye ect.

I see your intention of using the vital Total Energy Rating and somewhat dated Med. Energy as a measure of form
I will keep an eye on your findings on SA
However just as when I use the Wm. Scott factors
There are so many vaiables in rating the horses last few races
What usually happens for me is I end up focusing so much on the favorite that I miss the much better paying horses in Tier 2- 3 and sometimes 4

But that is just me.
I wish you good skill with your research
I realize you are way above the rest of the methodology
clients and you can stream line your play to readouts like Total Energy and Med.Energy

I wonder though if it would just lead you to a horse tier 1 ,2 and 3 anyway

Good Skill
Binder
V/DC Messenger
A Sartin Methodology Group

[46zilzal]

Discovered this idea reviewing energy screens. The SAME data support (increasing median) is found ALSO by increasing e/l, decreasing deceleration so even thought it was FOUNDED upon a older conecept, it resonates through the newer ones as well.

[Binder]

How about V/DC
or Primary line score
or the odds line generated on BL/BL
or the Supplemental Linescore
or on the Energy Generator
E/EPR or Total Pace Potental (TPP) ?

[46zilzal]

go back to your Follow Ups and the read the article about using too many factors in making a decision. It was reviewed and was done by, of all groups, the CIA.



Trends are there: don't over-analyxe just look for them.

[Binder]

Thank You
I will read the follow ups again

And I will follow Doc's bacic procedure

1. I will pick my top conteners using the best of the last 3 comparable pace lines

2. I will eliminate any contender not In the top
five Primary Line Score and Total Energy

3. I will check the ESP running stlye
of the contenders - Based on the program
used , Im my case Validator 3

4. I will note amount of the horses Total Energy
used at the half way point of the paceline race that I entered
This is form the Early / Late screen not Med. Energy
which is based on the 2nd call

5. I will last look at the 6 screen which is gives me all the information I need
based on a Oddsline that is calulated by the program
And is heavely weight by the Primary factors of the Sartin Methodplogy
EPR- LPR-CPR TT- HE-FW-and FX and the The Speed Rating of my pace line
I can see the Morning line odds, The age, The track
The days since last race on this screen

or I can just go to the 7 screen
and go by V/DC
which is a improved measure of Velocity and Deceleration

So to summerize after I pick My pace lines
were my decisions are what the program will rate
Not yours or anyone elses ratings will be calculated
I check 6 factors

1.Primary Line Score
2. Total Energy
3. ESP
4.Early/Late readout
5. Oddsline linescore
6. VDC

I don't think thats "too many"
and Its all in the Follow Up
So its good enough for me

Good Skill

[46zilzal]

So to summerize after I pick My pace lines
were my decisions are what the program will rate
Not yours or anyone elses ratings will be calculated
I check 6 factors

1.Primary Line Score
2. Total Energy
3. ESP
4.Early/Late readout
5. Oddsline linescore
6. VDC

I don't think thats "too many" and Its all in the Follow Up
So its good enough for me

OFTEN you have to take the next step and "read between the lines," an one of the MOST confusing factors IS USING TOO MANY FACTORS.

Nice thing about this tool (the methodology) is it's adpatablity

[Binder]

we certainly view the methodology from different points of view

May I suggest if you copy someones comment onto you reply you add a quote link or at least put my comments in quote marks

Binder wrote

"So to summerize after I pick My pace lines
were my decisions are what the program will rate
Not yours or anyone elses ratings will be calculated
I check 6 factors

1.Primary Line Score
2. Total Energy
3. ESP
4.Early/Late readout
5. Oddsline linescore
6. VDC

I don't think thats "too many" and Its all in the Follow Up
So its good enough for me "



Good Skill
with your methods

[46zilzal]

Now that I understand the calculations in probability convergence, I have much LESS faith in it's outcome

[46zilzal]

"I don't think thats "too many" and Its all in the Follow Up
So its good enough for me "

Howard is NOT around any longer and things have moved on substantially, particularly in the aspect of extractions and projections...This being a tool has NO strict guidelines...JUST HE WAY IT WORKS for the user that's all.

[Binder]

"Now that I understand the calculations in probability convergence, I have much LESS faith in it's outcome"

How did you get the calculations for
the V/DC readout and probability convergence ?

The problems I have with extraction and projection
have nothing to do with the program I use - Val 3
The problem is on my end

Today at AQU.
Race 7 The winner # 7 paid $14.00 Tier 3 VDC
These ratings are without hides or scratches

The only reason I left out the 7 in race 7 was because
this 2 YO ran 4 routes in 4 lifetime starts
I was the one who decided that the 7 was the horse to eliminate
not Val 3. It rated the # 7 tier 3 off the 2nd line back and If I used the last
line Val 3 rates it # 1
I rarely project unless its a maiden race were all the contenders are stretching out I just copy Doc with this method

[46zilzal]

without the generation of ideas COPYING doesn't work...IT NEVER WILL. You have to fidget and experiment NEVER accepting anything as static or the parade will leave you behind.

[socantra]

Originally posted by 46zilzal
In Sartin methodology have noticed a funny thing: when a horse is moving DOWN in total energy and moving UP (higher) in percent median they are going off form. Lalia Page (Aqu 5th 12/15) and Precious Perfect (AQU 7th 12/16) showed this pattern recently but it has been a resoundingly good way to LESSEN the chances of a false favorite LIKE Pico Central last out.


I'd agree it hints at declining form, but I'm not sure what the discovery is. If the horse exerts less total energy for 3 races in a row, that in itself seems like a pretty good indication the horse is going off form.

Add to that moving up in percent median in those same 3 races, which just tells you the horse is using his energy earlier and running out of gas before the end of the race, and you would seem to have a flag that Ray Charles could see.

siocantra...

[46zilzal]

I have seen this happen when the toatl energy was close to the same over the three race sample or even GOING UIP!!


Heart of the idea is the three race pattern or succesively rising percent meidan, deceleration going down as well

[46zilzal]

A variation on the "going off Form" occurred yet again but this was a
bit different THREE extracted lines ranked this one in the top 2 in the
5th race (number 6 Lila Paige) at Aqueduct Wednesday. This was a SPRINT,
so one might expect a moving toward early would be a benefit..but alas
this one finished UP the track.

Lila Paige TOTAL Med % TS Decel ESP
last 166.55 68.6 55.4 91.5 Presser
2nd 166.61 68.4 55.5 92.3 Presser
3rd 165.51 68.0 55.0 94.1 S/P

[46zilzal]

December 14th Tampa
total % median
line 1)161.50 70.2%
line 2)162.12 69.6%
line 4)160.52 69.2%

Getting earlier : "going off form pattern" of BIG favorite at Tampa in
the 5th today at 6.0f Dynamic Duck even though it ranked on TOP.

[46zilzal]

Mentioned about total energy going down and median going up as evidence
of GOING OFF FORM;

Pico Centrals last few lines:
It was the trend of the last three BEFORE the 6.0 sprint (the atypical line)


Last FOUR races TOTAL median energy
161.39 66.8 very atypical for this one and Lowest of all
161.74 69.2
164.56 68.4
165.29 68.1


Median going up and total going down

[46zilzal]

12/16 AQU 7th and this one shocked me.

Precsion Perfect

total %med total veloc (rank) deceleration (rank)
1) 167.62 69.4 55.7 (1) 88.1
2) 165.45 68.6 55.1 (3) 91.7
3) 164.28 68.2 54.7 (4) 93.1 (3)

2/1 choice ran OUT.

[socantra]

Originally posted by 46zilzal
I have seen this happen when the toatl energy was close to the same over the three race sample or even GOING UIP!!

Heart of the idea is the three race pattern or succesively rising percent meidan, deceleration going down as well

From the examples you include, it would appear that what you're talking about has nothing to do with total energy going up or down, but is based solely on the horse trending toward earlier energy expenditure in successive races. That is an intriguing possibility and would also be somewhat harder for Ray to spot. :-)

I've been playing lately with adapting some of Blinkers Off procedures to be more easily used within Validator and Speculator as form guidelines, and will put that on my list of things to look out for. Thanks.

socantra...

[shanta]

Tampa Bay today. First race. #8 is 5/2 ml. Shipping down from Woodbine. last 3 races total energy & %med:

last line: tot.en-167.68 %med-70.8
2 back : tot.en-166.75 % med- 69.5
3 back: tot.en-163.74 % med- 68.8

Total energy going up, speed ratings going up, BUT %med also going up. Let's see what happens.

Richie

Deceleration also getting worse

[JustMissed]

may make the early pace????

I sent a search party out and couldn't find any early speed to help out these late runners.

Good luck,

JM


p.s. I wonder what kinda of 'pace picture' Randy Giles would call this one?

[andicap]

Question:

Cary Fotias likes horses with peak 4f pace figs and final time (or total energy if you like) figures that are below their top.

So if a horse's median energy is rising (early speed) and his total energy is declining (off his peak), isn't that a positive development according to "Blinkers Off?"

What am I missing here?

[shanta]

Originally posted by shanta
Tampa Bay today. First race. #8 is 5/2 ml. Shipping down from Woodbine. last 3 races total energy & %med:

last line: tot.en-167.68 %med-70.8
2 back : tot.en-166.75 % med- 69.5
3 back: tot.en-163.74 % med- 68.8

Total energy going up, speed ratings going up, BUT %med also going up. Let's see what happens.

Richie

Deceleration also getting worse

Result is in:
the 8 goes off co-fav at 5/2. Runs off the board. very nice.
Richie

[socantra]

Originally posted by andicap
Question:

Cary Fotias likes horses with peak 4f pace figs and final time (or total energy if you like) figures that are below their top.

So if a horse's median energy is rising (early speed) and his total energy is declining (off his peak), isn't that a positive development according to "Blinkers Off?"

What am I missing here?

The short answer is, I don't know. At this point I'm just considering someone else's observation.

More thoughtfully, I'd say we're looking at two different concepts here. Fotias is talking about spotting a horse rounding into form who is not yet showing it in his final time. To me that seems a lot like the old concept of surprise early speed as an indicator of improvement. If the horse does come into form and his final times get better, his energy will be exerted later in the race also, and his median energy will come down.

The other idea is looking for a sign of a horse already in form tailing off. Median energy rising is not necessarily a sign of increasing early speed, just that a horse is using more of his available energy early in the race. When an athlete starts going off form, does it show up first as less speed all through the race, or the inability to carry his speed as far as when in peak form?

socantra...

[vtbob]

The only problem I have with Sartin Methodology is that energy simply is not proportional to velocity! If you recall Einstein's famous E=MC^2 equation, you see that energy is proportional to the SQUARE of velocity.

I've been tracking an energy ratio: EP^2/3Fr^2

I can't swear that it works any better, but at least it makes sense to me.

[46zilzal]

Einstein was talking about a BIT larger a system.

[46zilzal]

others have tested this idea and the prevailing opinion SO FAR is that the median % elevation is more significant than the total energy going down.

It really helps in ROUTES more than anywhere else however when these changes are subtle.

[46zilzal]

EVERY calculation made in ANY of the velocity and/ or deceleration programs ANY OF US USE, have to be considered with a BIG GRAIN OF SALT since they do not factor in trips, paths, trouble etc. which one has to evaluate SUBJECTIVELY.


Nice but NOT gospel.

[46zilzal]

Moralap the odds on favorite COULD have been exposed her by this same idea LAST THREE, still enough for 2nd however

Total %median
154.39 69.7
155.95 68.7
157.18 68.2

[cj]

Horse was wide and bumped in the stetch of the last which surely had to effect the calculations as you mention earlier. Throw in that the horse lost to a first time starter, I'm not sure you can really get much one way or the other from this example.

[46zilzal]

Horse was wide and bumped in the stretch of the last which surely had to effect the calculations as you mention earlier. Throw in that the horse lost to a first time starter, I'm not sure you can really get much one way or the other from this example.

I am not scutinizing these, but simply reporting the findings when they come up. SIMPLE FILTER which, works that's all akin to my belief in K.I.S.S.

AN ASIDE: I must congratulate you on using OBJECTIVE evidence in your comments...YOU ARE TO BE ADMIRED for LOGIC not emotion.