race prophet-computrak

[acorn54]

i think these programs were discussed a month or two back.
would anybody having used, or still using these programs care to comment on the pluses and minuses of these programs.
also the procedure you use in handicapping with them would be interesting to know.
i found computrak to be a numbers generator and little else. the odds line seemed to be out of whack but i onlyl used it for a few days so it might have been the period i was using it and the track i was using it at (nyra)
i couldn't find a usable approach with race prophet and it seemed to duplicate what equisim does
acorn (guy)

[thoroughbred]

Originally posted by acorn54
i think these programs were discussed a month or two back.
would anybody having used, or still using these programs care to comment on the pluses and minuses of these programs.
also the procedure you use in handicapping with them would be interesting to know.
i found computrak to be a numbers generator and little else. the odds line seemed to be out of whack but i onlyl used it for a few days so it might have been the period i was using it and the track i was using it at (nyra)
i couldn't find a usable approach with race prophet and it seemed to duplicate what equisim does
acorn (guy)

Acorn,

As the developer of CompuTrak, perhaps I can be helpful to you.

Yes, of course, CompuTrak "gnerates numbers." What is important is what those numbers mean. For example:

The "Horse Friction" number is an excellent rating of a horse's closing capability and stamina. Usually is more important in routes, especially turf races. It is derived for the individual horse, i.e, avoids the problem of thinking a horse is a closer when in fact it was the leading horse that was slowing down.

The Predicted finish time number, gives you the horse's predicted finish time for today's race, for each horse for each of the horse's previous pacelines. In other words, it answers the question, If the horse ran with the same capability that he had in a previous race, what would his finish time be today. Track variant, as calculated from the BRIS speed rating, and weight changes are included in this calculation.

The Early Speed number is the Early speed of the horse, AT THE BEGINNING of the race, of each paceline. It is NOT the average speed obtained by seeing the time at the first call, BUT, the speed at the very beginning.

The Form number gives you a rating of the present form of the horse, based on recent races and workouts.

The Boxer number gives you an overall racing for the horse, where the derivation of ths rating is shown in the document,
"Addendum to Engineering Analyis of Thoroughbred Racing."

Those are just a few of the examples to illustrate what the "number generation" that you observed mean. And the majority of these ratings are fully described in the documentation.

Also, to make some of this clearer, the graphs that are supplied provide you with a picture of the key values, paceline by paceline. Makes it easy to see if a horse is improving or degrading.

Finally, the odds line, is based on three of the key CompuTrak ratings.

To answer your question as to how handicappers are using it. The feedback I get from users includes this kind of approach:

Look at the top contenders using the odds line. Then separate the contenders by observing the predicted finish time for each. Furher modification of your choice will depend on whether the race is a sprint, or a route. If a sprint, early speed with a decent finsih is important, whereas, with a route, especially one on turf, the Friction value can be used for contender separation.

As a final step, to add confidence, the Form Rating of the horse is used.

I hope the above will answer your questions about the use of CompuTrak.

[acorn54]

thoroughbred thanks for the feed back and thorough process of using computrak.
acorn

[Big Bill]

TB,

In your post you describe getting a variant from thre BRIS Speed Rating, i.e., "Track variant, as calculated from the BRIS speed rating, and weight changes are included in this calculation." I recall reading other softwared descriptions saying that as well.

Have you developed a way to extract the variant from their SR, or has BRIS explained how you might do that, or are you referring to the DRF TV that BRIS's data files contain?

Big Bill

[thoroughbred]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Big Bill
[B]TB,

In your post you describe getting a variant from thre BRIS Speed Rating, i.e., "Track variant, as calculated from the BRIS speed rating, and weight changes are included in this calculation." I recall reading other softwared descriptions saying that as well.

Have you developed a way to extract the variant from their SR, or has BRIS explained how you might do that, or are you referring to the DRF TV that BRIS's data files contain?

Big Bill,

The variant is obtained from the BRIS Speed Rating. The method is similar to the way one calculates the variant using the Beyer Rating.
Weight changes are not part of the variant calculation. I only mentioned weight change to point out that weight change is included in the calculation of items such as "Predicted Finish Time."

[Big Bill]

TB,

Thanks for the response to my inquiry. I remember reading how Beyer described in one of his books that the variant could be calculated from his figs. Guess I'll have to review that book again.

Thanks for the explanation.

Big Bill

[Lasix1]

Dear Thoroughbred,

I've noted in the discussions here that the trial version of Computrak is good for 10 days, but on the website it says
the trial is a 3-day pass. Which is correct? Is there a way to contact you by email about this program? Many thanks--

[thoroughbred]

Originally posted by Lasix1
Dear Thoroughbred,

I've noted in the discussions here that the trial version of Computrak is good for 10 days, but on the website it says
the trial is a 3-day pass. Which is correct? Is there a way to contact you by email about this program? Many thanks--

Lasix 1

At present the trial is for 3 days of unlimited use.

I can discuss the program and answer any questions via email:

rube@revelationprofits.com