andicap
03-28-2002, 02:42 PM
Here's a question. What's the most important factor do you consider in pace handicapping. (Obviously, if you're NOT a pace handicapper, this may not be relevant).
For me, it's who will get or vye for the early lead and will they keep it. In other words, I've found (and I'm really eager for GR1's opinion on this being the early speed fiend he is), that its not so much SPEED DUELS that determine what happens at the end of a race.
No, my experience is that when the early horses are weaker horses, that sets it up for those behind them. (Non-maiden races only please).
In other words, hypothetically, if you had 3 horses going early and all were 8-1 and higher in the ML, there's a good chance they would die off being weaker horses. Depending on the splits, that would either set it up for pressers or -- if the pressers were too close to a rapid pace -- closers.
BUT if you have 3 horses, and one is a 2-1 outstanding horse and the others are 12-1 longshots, there's a good chance the 2-1 will win anyway since he will put the weak horses away early.
(Yes, track bias plays a part too, I know).
We all know about lone early speed, which is really dangerous on the turf because its less likely someone else will go with an early horse on the grass.
For me, it's who will get or vye for the early lead and will they keep it. In other words, I've found (and I'm really eager for GR1's opinion on this being the early speed fiend he is), that its not so much SPEED DUELS that determine what happens at the end of a race.
No, my experience is that when the early horses are weaker horses, that sets it up for those behind them. (Non-maiden races only please).
In other words, hypothetically, if you had 3 horses going early and all were 8-1 and higher in the ML, there's a good chance they would die off being weaker horses. Depending on the splits, that would either set it up for pressers or -- if the pressers were too close to a rapid pace -- closers.
BUT if you have 3 horses, and one is a 2-1 outstanding horse and the others are 12-1 longshots, there's a good chance the 2-1 will win anyway since he will put the weak horses away early.
(Yes, track bias plays a part too, I know).
We all know about lone early speed, which is really dangerous on the turf because its less likely someone else will go with an early horse on the grass.