BETTING ALL NON-FAVORITE HORSES IN THE FIELD.

[formula_2002]

BETTING ALL NON-FAVORITE HORSES IN THE FIELD.

THE BET SIZE FOR ALL THE NON-FAVORITES IS DETERMINED BY THE RELATIONS SHIP OF ALL-NON-FAVORITES TO THE FAVORITE.

THE ATTACHED REPRESENTS THE WORK FOR ALL 8 RACES AT CHURCHILL DOWNS RACETRACK FOR YESTERDAY, 09-30-2021

THE TOTAL BET (COL W) = $913
TOTAL RETURNED (COL W)= $1210
THE FAVORITES WON ONLY 2 RACES
BASED ON THEY FAVORITES FAIR WIN % (COL AA) THEY SHOULD HAVE WON 2.56 RACES .
SO THEY WON BUT 78% OF THE EXPECTED WINS
MY $1 RETURN WAS $1210/ $913 = $1.32 ON THE DOLLAR

IF THE FAV WON ALL 2.56 RACES MY $1 RETURN WOULD BE $1.31
BUT THE WON ONLY 78% OF THE RACES, SO MY LONG TERM $1 WIN RETURN WOULD BE $1.32 X 0.78 = $1.029

Pretty, pretty good, if it held up.
My win bet sizes are based on the expected normalized win % for each non favorite compared to its actual normalized win %

[formula_2002]

WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Belmont Park* Race 5 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$6 $0 $9 $6 $0 $7 $0 $2 $6 $2 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $36.82

[formula_2002]

the #6 wins $ 5 on a $1 play

before the gates open
QUOTE=formula_2002;2757753]WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Belmont Park* Race 5 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$6 $0 $9 $6 $0 $7 $0 $2 $6 $2 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $36.82
[/QUOTE]
my $1 return was $0.98

after the gates open

WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Belmont Park* Race 5 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$7 $0 $22 $7 $0 $21 $0 $2 $9 $2 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $69.95
My $1 return was $1.53

[derrick24948]

Hey, thanks for sharing this. Really interesting.

Could you explain a little further-more simply for a non-mathematician- how you calculated the amount to bet per horse based on the odds relationship?

I'm not grasping it completely and your chart is way over my ignorant head! Thanks!

[formula_2002]

Hey, thanks for sharing this. Really interesting.

Could you explain a little further-more simply for a non-mathematician- how you calculated the amount to bet per horse based on the odds relationship?

I'm not grasping it completely and your chart is way over my ignorant head! Thanks!

thanks for your interest.
I can not share the information at this time.

The chart is a bit over done, but thats how my mind works:)

[sharkey11]

derrick its a dutching method try serching for huey mahl he had written good stuff on that . this man posting this thread is most likely the only one who under stands what hes posting hes dutching some of the entrants and leaving some with 0 bets on them . so it highly unlikely that he or anyone else can win at this type of betting .anyway best of luck :headbanger:

[Red Knave]

hes dutching some of the entrants and leaving some with 0 bets on them . so it highly unlikely that he or anyone else can win at this type of betting
It's the 5th from Bel on Oct 1. There is a zero bet on the 2 because it was favorite, the others were either scratched or there was no horse entered.
Don't dismiss Formula's work in this game.

[sharkey11]

i dont dismiss any ones work but when a guy asks what all this means and gets told its not to be shared then i just tryed to point the fella in the right direction and besides the author of the thread seem to be the only one who knows what all this means and makes claims as to the validness on one or two races . seems to me one or two is a very small sample . well good luck to him and to yourself also :headbanger:

[formula_2002]

It's the 5th from Bel on Oct 1. There is a zero bet on the 2 because it was favorite, the others were either scratched or there was no horse entered.
Don't dismiss Formula's work in this game.

That's very kind of you to say

Thanks

[formula_2002]

Here is a summary of 42 recent races
there were 31 winners (26 for a profit) for 75% winners. I have not determined the true win % of the favorites

total bet = $5209, returned $5792. return on the dollar was $1.11

normalizing the bets for each race (which may be the best way to determine long term proifs (if one is to be had) was $1.01

[formula_2002]

Here is a summary of 42 recent races
there were 31 winners (26 for a profit) for 75% winners. I have not determined the true win % of the favorites

total bet = $5209, returned $5792. return on the dollar was $1.11

normalizing the bets for each race (which may be the best way to determine long term proifs (if one is to be had) was $1.01

here is the chart

[formula_2002]

here is a neat outlier on line calculator.

https://statscalculator.com

after 68 races and 46 winners, return/ bet size =$0.79,
$1 normalized bet returned $0.91

eliminating one of the three outliers (i think after more races, two of the three out liers will become normal)

after 67races and 46 winners, return/ bet size =$1.02,
$1 normalized bet returned $0.92

[derrick24948]

i dont dismiss any ones work but when a guy asks what all this means and gets told its not to be shared then i just tryed to point the fella in the right direction and besides the author of the thread seem to be the only one who knows what all this means and makes claims as to the validness on one or two races . seems to me one or two is a very small sample . well good luck to him and to yourself also :headbanger:

Thanks Sharkey! I appreciate the info. I realize it's dutching, but how the relationship between the win odds of the favorite and other horses to determine the dutch is what I don't get. But! the original poster isn't able to share it so there's my answer. I wasn't missing anything.

[sharkey11]

all i can tell you is that dutching is not realy profitable not to say it dosent work just never worked for me and as he has shown it dosent work in his examples as i.e the .92 cent return on his wagers try hedging it might be better and gl :headbanger:

[formula_2002]

all i can tell you is that dutching is not realy profitable not to say it dosent work just never worked for me and as he has shown it dosent work in his examples as i.e the .92 cent return on his wagers try hedging it might be better and gl :headbanger:

There is joy in mudville just besting the takeout;) imagine cutting an 18% vig down to 8%. Further, Imagine what a good handicapper could do with that!!

[formula_2002]

THREE LINE GRAPHS.. ONE OBSERVATION IS THAT IN ALL THREE GRAPHS THE END OF LINE APPROACHES 1, BREAK EVEN

[formula_2002]

found a few errors and made corrections
now have 112 races, the $1 normalized return, which I previously mentioned may well be the best indicator of long term results, now returns $0.94 on the dollar. I'll post some charts after 200 races.


removing 7 outliers, the $1 normalized returns becomes $0.96
in addition when the bet size is >=100 the $1 normalized return is $1.01 in 71 races.

[nuckman]

Thanks for the work and explanation. I found this very interesting.

[formula_2002]

Thanks for the work and explanation. I found this very interesting.

Yesteday I used the statscalculator to find the "bet size outliers", today I used it to find "return" outliers. eliminating both sets of outliers brought the $1 normalized return down to something much less than $1.01, say about $0.88 to $0.92, depending on what races are included.

[formula_2002]

A BIT MORE THAN DUTCHING

PART OF THE STUDY.

[formula_2002]

Mountaineer Park* Race 8 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Mountaineer Park* Race 8 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $2 $5 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $0 $1 $7 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $17.66

[formula_2002]

Mountaineer Park* Race 8 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Mountaineer Park* Race 8 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $2 $5 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $0 $1 $7 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $17.66


11/3 exacta $1 win paid $4.60 at the track
my total bet was $17.66 the return $33.35 (bet sizt to two decimial places was $7.29)

these plays win appox 66% of the time
the minumum average $1 must be 1/.66 = $1.52 to break even
this play returned $33.53/ $17.66 = $1.898
in a 93 race sample that average return was $1.513.

there are 17 races where the play should not be made, then the average return for the remaing races increases to $1.59 at the same win percentage of 66%.


note: with this newly designed play there are but a few races where not only the favorite is eliminated, but 1 additional horse is also eliminated

[formula_2002]

Parx Racing* Race 4 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Parx Racing* Race 4 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$12 $0 $5 $19 $0 $1 $9 $22 $123 $13 $3 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $208.01

rev

9 wins total bet $208, returned $217

[formula_2002]

Parx Racing* Race 5

not a betting race

[formula_2002]

Parx Racing* Race 5

not a betting race

fav #5 ran at 1/5 and won

[formula_2002]

Charles Town* Race 1 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Charles Town* Race 1 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $85 $0 $64 $5 $87 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $240.53

[formula_2002]

Charles Town* Race 1 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Charles Town* Race 1 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $85 $0 $64 $5 $87 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $240.53


#2 wins

$240 bet
$347 returned

[formula_2002]

Yestreday, i only posted those races where the total race bet size was >=$200.
all three plays won.;)

why only those races? Glad you asked.

in a small 119 Race sample, 63% of the picks won, 54% of those at a profit.
the profit, return/bet size was $1.07.

sorting those 119 races on race bet size, it was determined that 32 races, having a race bet size >=$200, returned 72% winners, 83% of those at a profit and return/bet size = $1.25 .

would it not be grand it that continued!!

[formula_2002]

Belmont Park* Race 2 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Belmont Park* Race 2 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$108 $110 $0 $1 $0 $8 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $226.42

[formula_2002]

Belmont Park* Race 4 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Belmont Park* Race 4 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $105 $0 $94 $42 $0 $5 $2 $44 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $292.54

[formula_2002]

Gulfstream* Race 4 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Gulfstream* Race 4 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$80 $1 $51 $41 $23 $0 $65 $1 $7 $0 $7 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $275.69

[formula_2002]

won all three so far. more like this I would be broke shortly.

$541 returned/ $793 bet = returned $0.68:coffee:

[formula_2002]

WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # 2 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $0 $152 $0 $0 $0 $159 $0 $21 $5 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $336.72

[formula_2002]

WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Keeneland* Race 9 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$57 $8 $0 $104 $23 $1 $0 $0 $1 $0 $4 $2 $0 $0 $0 $0 $201.13

[formula_2002]

in a small 130 Race sample, 64% of the picks won, 67% of those at a profit.
the profit, return/bet size was $1.02

sorting those 130 races on race bet size, it was determined that 36 races, having a race bet size >=$200, returned 75% winners, 70% of those at a profit and return/bet size = $1.17 .

would it not be grand it that continued!!

last 6 posted races where race bet size >=$200, return/ bet = $0.78

[formula_2002]

Keeneland* Race 4 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Keeneland* Race 4 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $109 $19 $0 $7 $92 $33 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $259.80

[formula_2002]

Keeneland* Race 6 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Keeneland* Race 6 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$22 $11 $0 $2 $130 $9 $0 $116 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $289.80

[formula_2002]

Belmont Park* Race 7 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Belmont Park* Race 7 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 11
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$45 $0 $11 $1 $124 $6 $0 $0 $10 $3 $4 $10 $0 $0 $0 $0 $213.04

[formula_2002]

WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Charles Town* Race 8 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$98 $0 $18 $56 $86 $0 $2 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $260.10

[formula_2002]

in a small 140 Race sample, 62% of the picks won, 67% of those at a profit.
the profit, return/bet size was $0.98

sorting those 140 races on race bet size, it was determined that 39 races, having a race bet size >=$200, returned 74% winners, 66% of those at a profit and return/bet size = $1.12 .

would it not be grand it that continued!!

l

[formula_2002]

Belmont Park* Race 9 2.22 0.00 0.00 1 2 9 9 0.00 0.00 0.00
Belmont Park* Race 9 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Belmont Park* Race 9 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $219 $2 $19 $40 $4 $4 $1 $49 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $337.49

[formula_2002]

Mountaineer Park* Race 8 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Mountaineer Park* Race 8 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$52 $0 $4 $20 $0 $15 $0 $0 $1 $0 $299 $2 $0 $0 $0 $0 $392.81


Mountaineer Park* Race 8 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Mountaineer Park* Race 8 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$50 $0 $18 $38 $0 $34 $0 $0 $9 $0 $62 $16 $0 $0 $0 $0 $227.83

[formula_2002]

in a small 172 Race sample, 66% of the picks finished 1st, 45% at a profit.
the profit, return/bet size, was $1.03

sorting those 172 races on race bet size, it was determined that 50 races, having a race bet size >=$200, returned 78% finished 1st, 56% at a profit and return/bet size = $1.26 .

Additionaly when bet size >=$.95, in 98 races the return / bet size was $0.95 the $1 normalized bet returned $0.93, 68% finished 1st, %0% at a profit.


would it not be grand if that continued!!

[formula_2002]

HERE IS A CHART

[formula_2002]

Laurel* Race 3
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Laurel* Race 3 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$24 $60 $1 $12 $0 $1 $3 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $100.00
$0.54 $1.35 $0.02 $0.28 $0.00 $0.01 $0.06 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.27

[formula_2002]

Laurel* Race 3
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Laurel* Race 3 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$24 $60 $1 $12 $0 $1 $3 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $100.00
$0.54 $1.35 $0.02 $0.28 $0.00 $0.01 $0.06 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.27


the 2 wins. return/bet size = $350.6/$227. = $1 normalized return $1.54
a perfect play!!

[formula_2002]

UK Cheltenham* Race 4
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN UK Cheltenham* Race 4 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $4 $5 $0 $64 $2 $15 $10 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $100.00
$0.00 $0.09 $0.11 $0.00 $1.44 $0.05 $0.34 $0.23 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.27

[formula_2002]

UK Cheltenham* Race 4
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN UK Cheltenham* Race 4 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $4 $5 $0 $64 $2 $15 $10 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $100.00
$0.00 $0.09 $0.11 $0.00 $1.44 $0.05 $0.34 $0.23 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.27


another "perfect play"
5 wins, $4.185 returned/ $2.266 bet $1 normalized retur was $1.87

[formula_2002]

Keeneland* Race 10
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Keeneland* Race 10 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $0 $0 $32 $28 $28 $6 $0 $0 $0 $0 $7 $0 $0 $0 $0 $100.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.65 $0.56 $0.57 $0.12 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.13 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.03

[formula_2002]

Keeneland* Race 10
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Keeneland* Race 10 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $0 $0 $32 $28 $28 $6 $0 $0 $0 $0 $7 $0 $0 $0 $0 $100.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.65 $0.56 $0.57 $0.12 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.13 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.03


the 6 wins
return/bet size = $306.6/$202. = $1 normalized return $1.51
a perfect play!!

[formula_2002]

Parx Racing* Race 10
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Parx Racing* Race 10 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $43 $0 $0 $0 $14 $8 $0 $16 $0 $19 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $100.00
$0.00 $0.94 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.29 $0.16 $0.00 $0.35 $0.00 $0.42 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.16

[formula_2002]

Parx Racing* Race 10
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Parx Racing* Race 10 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $43 $0 $0 $0 $14 $8 $0 $16 $0 $19 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $100.00
$0.00 $0.94 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.29 $0.16 $0.00 $0.35 $0.00 $0.42 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.16


the 9 wins
return/bet size = $242/$216= $1 normalized return $1.12
a perfect play!!

[formula_2002]

Santa Anita* Race 5
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Santa Anita* Race 5 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 11
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$38.615 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $61.385 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $100.00
$2.51 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $3.99 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $6.50

[formula_2002]

Santa Anita* Race 6
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Santa Anita* Race 6 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$24.810 $1.479 $5.619 $0.175 $6.739 $35.922 $0.439 $0.000 $0.000 $24.817 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $100.00
$6.88 $0.41 $1.56 $0.05 $1.87 $9.96 $0.12 $0.00 $0.00 $6.88 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $27.72

[formula_2002]

two losses in a row