What is the best bet to make a profit in the long run?

[nmhusker]

Is it a straight win bet or win and place. Is it daily doubles,pick 3,pick 4,exactas,trifectas ot superfectas.

I have been told by a horse player that does it full time for a living that the best bet in horse racing is to bet one horse to win a race? A simple win wager

[kenwoodallpromos]

For most the straight win is best because straight take outs are lower than exotics and because place or show requires too high a success rate for most to earn a profit.

[hurrikane]

obviously the best bet to make is the one that wins.

the only way to really know what is the best bet for you is to keep incredible records and be honest with yourself. (i'm not talking about the putting money in a jar and looking 5 yrs from now and see if the jar is half empty or half full kind of records)

A straight win bet is bs. Someone making a living from this can tell you they make most of their money on striaight win - non maiden - sprints.
Or a big part of their nut comes from betting the tri in large field contentious mnd and turf races.
some will even say they make a 20% ROI betting chalk to show.


in the end it doesn't really matter what they tell you(most of it is probably lies anyway)

the only way to know what the best bet for you to make is...keep records. Then there will be no question. And in many many cases the answer is going to be...the best bet for you to make is to make no bets, keep the day job, this is for entertainment purposes only.

Fortunately 80% of the betting public doesn't keep records and therefore have no idea what they are doing and why.

to just say a straight win bet is meaningless. IMO.

[acorn54]

hurrikane
you seem to dismiss the betting public at large as careless bettors.
the fact that the vast majority of the money in the betting pools comes in the last minute tells me that very few bettors are careless with thier betting money,but rather are making sure they are getting value on their bets
acorn

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by acorn54
hurrikane
you seem to dismiss the betting public at large as careless bettors.
the fact that the vast majority of the money in the betting pools comes in the last minute tells me that very few bettors are careless with thier betting money,but rather are making sure they are getting value on their bets
acorn

Folks are betting at the last minute to get the horse they want. That doesn't mean they're getting the value they seek. If most of the money wasn't inefficient, there would be more people making a long-term profit, more than the 2-5% who do.

[acorn54]

hi ranchwest
please clarify for me as to why one can't bet 15 minutes to post and get the horse they want.
the only rationale of waiting until the horses are being loaded into the gate before betting is to attempt to get the most accurate odds l ine info before making a wager
acorn

[JimG]

Originally posted by nmhusker
Is it a straight win bet or win and place. Is it daily doubles,pick 3,pick 4,exactas,trifectas ot superfectas.

I have been told by a horse player that does it full time for a living that the best bet in horse racing is to bet one horse to win a race? A simple win wager

Not what you want to hear, but there is no one best bet to make a profit in the long run.

Jim

[acorn54]

i think that the hong kong syndicates that rake in the money (is it Benter) play the exotics not betting to win and get a 40% roi
acorn

[hurrikane]

I dont' think the majority of the public is careless bettors.

I think they are sloppy businesspeople. I can assure you that 80% or more(likly including you) do not keep accurate records of their transactions.

I believe the reaon is because they consider a large part of it gambling and luck instead a business.

well, maybe you are right. they are careless bettors.

And any assuption that all the money comes in at the end because of smart players is just plain folly. Most of it is out of panic.....

[Lefty]

Went to the track for years, now frequent the racebooks. To hear the banter that goes on and seeing the way a lot of people bet leads me to only one conclusion: The public at large are careless bettors! They bet tips, they bet numbers, they bet old systems, the bet grey horses, they bet jockeys. They are out for fun and action and that leads to carelessness.

[bettheoverlay]

I have a great respect for the consensus of the public. They create a tough line to beat.

My records show that win betting is best for me. I can stay ahead of the game without the massive losing streaks that can come with exotics. Exotics are more fun to bet so I always bet a few each day. But unless I hit a signer, they are a losing proposition for me.

[acorn54]

most of the horse bettors may not be ser ious about the game but they don't bet the bulk of the money.
it's the old 80/20 rule
20% of the players bet 80% of the money
acorn

[hurrikane]

20% bet 80% of the money
20% are winners 80% losers
20% keep records 80% don't.

I tend to spit these numbers out too.

The fact is there are no facts to prove this.
None. You have none, I have none.
It's not really possible to prove because those types of records are not kept.

So let's work with what we know.

Most of the change in odds occurs because of the way simulcasts sites report their bets. not because of a mad rush to the windows or the whales dumping a ton at post time.

Record keeping is madatory in any business endevor or predictive science. Without it you are just guessing.

if 80% of the money comes from 20% of the people that does not necessarily mean that those are the people taking the money out. after the race. There are plenty of rich people out there that love to gamble their money. Ask any casino in the world. that doesn't make them a winner.

[RXB]

Acorn:

True, but a fair number of that 20% who are betting the bulk of the money are not terribly sophisticated players, who have lots of money to throw around, and who end up on the chalk almost without fail.

[Buckeye]

Acorn,

you are right about the 80/20 rule.

Nevertheless, my opinion is that at least half of the 20 is illinformed. That means that at least 40% of the money is "up for grabs"

I strongly agree with hurrikane that records will tell you what to bet, how to bet, and if to bet at all.

[fmhealth]

I can guarantee that my daughter is a winner every year. I've long ago given up the ghost, so to speak of chasing that elusive winning year. After 46 consecutive losing years. I simply play for the intellectual challenge of distilling all those numbers in the DRF into a bettable strategy. Being semi-retired, it's still an enjoyable afternoon.

My daughter on the other hand ALWAYS wins. Every time I head for the track I slip $5.00 into my glove compartment. Since I go about 3x week or 150x year , the numbers add up. She averages about $700.00 a year in profits. She used to call be a betting addict. Now she compalins that I don't go enough. So once again I come out on the losing end. I really have to get a life!!

[breakage]

hurrikane.

Those types of records are kept by many tracks and they form the basis for their rewards programs. They are identifying more and more large bettors and rewarding them with lots of good stuff because they know that these people fuel a large portion of the handle. Of course the 80/20 percentage is just an estimate but the concept is valid.

[Blackgold]

No matter what you are betting, horses, sports, presidential election outcome- the best bet is always the one(s) where you are getting higher odds than the resonable estimated odds on the outcome PLUS a little extra odds to compensate for the random nature OF nature.

As for racing, you need the windfalls of the exotics to put you ahead.

Rare is the individual that can make it with win betting only and those that can, should try tri-keys to turn up the profits.

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by acorn54
hi ranchwest
please clarify for me as to why one can't bet 15 minutes to post and get the horse they want.
the only rationale of waiting until the horses are being loaded into the gate before betting is to attempt to get the most accurate odds l ine info before making a wager
acorn

You've changed your premise.

In your earlier post, you said this:

are making sure they are getting value on their bets

Now, you say

to attempt to get the most accurate odds l ine info before making a wager

I agree with the second statement. I disagree with the first.

Thinking one is getting value and actually getting it are not necessarily the same.

[Light]

fmhealth

You lose for 46 years in a row and your daughter allways wins. Have you tried to learn from your daughter what she is doing right and what you are doing wrong?

[Exactaman]

just a personal preference, but i like exactas, and doubles as well. there is a higher chance for individual combinations to be underbet than with win. i see win as a club for taking down value, an exacta as a dart. if you can throw well you can take down a big chunk with a well placed dart. the option is there to throw multiple darts for the club effect as well. you may need patience though as not every dart is going to hit its mark. compared to triples etc. the odds are known before you bet which enables you to make concrete betting decisions more easily.

[Lefty]

light, you missed it. Everytime he goes to the trk he gives her money and she saves it. Who's going to give him money?

[hurrikane]

what amazes me about this is every time this question comes up the same bunch of misinformation and 'this is the only way' bs comes up. It kills me.

[Light]

Quote Lefty: Light, you missed it. Everytime he goes to the trk he gives her money and she saves it. Who's going to give him money?

Oh! missed that.Good one.

[cato]

The best bet....

Obviously the best bet is the one that wins FOR YOU

The only way one can possibly win at this game is to understand what bet you are making and why you are making it, the expected risk and expected return in the long run...and expected short term aberrations.

For some people, that's a win bet only. For others its a twin trifecta with some complex betting structure involving keys, wheels and God knows what else.

And that means paying attention and keeping records. Heck, if nothing else, use BRISBET and they will keep a decent set of records for you.

Good luck, Cato

[pmd62ndst]

Here's the best way to profit over the long run in any venture:

Research. Execute. Review. Repeat.

PMD

[fmhealth]

Mr Light, you question is well spotted. Since I realize that I won't win. At least my daughter will come out ahead at the end of the year. A pyhric victory at best but somehow the ride home from the track doesn't seem as long & dreary.

Now that she's married I don't see her as much. Don't like driving around with a few hundred dollars stuffed in my glove compartment. Think I'll mail her the cash evey time I hit the $100.00 dollar mark. What the heck, it works for me.