Too many Grade 1s

[Valuist]

in the US. How can a race like the Prioress, with none of the entrants having a Beyer over 100, stay a Grade 1? There's too many Grade 1 for 3YOs and 3YO fillies, and not enough sprint Grade 1s.

[hurrikane]

well, they certainly would't base G1 on what Beyer says. Not his money.

As for GR1 sprints. Not sure there. Doesn't Gr1 mean they can run a classic distance of some sort? haven't really thought to much about it but if so will they have Gr1 Quarter horse races?

[Valuist]

No it has nothing to do with distance. It's supposed to be about quality. Could a 2f race be Grade 1? Sure if Ghostzapper, Roses and May and the like showed up. 100 is a nice, round number. Let's have 100 grade 1 races. That's the committee's thinking.

Whether you like Beyer or not, his ratings are subjective; far more so than whatever the Grading committee uses.

[witchdoctor]

They do Grade 1 QH races(All American Fut. Heritage Place Fut.,etc.)

[hurrikane]

There, shows you what I know.

I guess I have a problem with the idea of Beyer being the deciding factor. What happens on an bad year. No GR1's?

What do you think Rag, Thoroughgraph, Cramer et al will think about Beyer numbers being the holy grail. What, you trying to start WWIII? :D

[cj]

Steven Crist has an article about this very thing on DRF. His stance is that there are too many G1 turf races in the US, and not enough sprints. I would agree. Have you seen some of these horses winning G1 turf races?

[Valuist]

The committee probably should be looking at all of them. I suspect the committee focuses on old-time variables, like money won and weight carried.

[foregoforever]

Originally posted by cj
Steven Crist has an article about this very thing on DRF. His stance is that there are too many G1 turf races in the US, and not enough sprints. I would agree. Have you seen some of these horses winning G1 turf races?

I don't know if the total number of turf grade 1's is too high, but the distribution of them is definitely odd. Let's look at some stats: for F&M 3yos and older, there are 28 dirt grade 1's vs. 12 on turf (4 for 3yos, 8 for older). For male 3yos and older, there are 33 on dirt, 19 on turf (2 for 3yos, 17 for older). And there are only 2 graded stakes for 2yos (both Grade 3, 1 for the colts and 1 for the fillies).

So let's follow the career of a turf colt. No races of even Grade 2 level as a 2yo. Only 2 Grade 1 races as a 3yo. Then suddenly 17 as an older horse. Not only that, but there are several cases in which 2 Grade 1 turf races for older horses are on the same weekend or separated by only a week. One might be a 10f and the other a 12f, but there are still not enough quality turf runners to support that schedule. There are also a couple of cases when two F&M Grade 1 turf races are the same day and at the same distance.

Kitten's Joy and Artie Schiller had to wait until July of their 3yo season to even see a Grade 2 race. The turf grades are skewed way toward older horses.

Gulfstream and Santa Anita run very nice turf programs early in the year, but there is only one Gr1 turf race in the first 4 months of the year. The F&M have to wait until the end of May for their first Gr 1. The turf grades are also skewed by the calendar.

I'd much rather watch and wager on turf races, so I'm a bit biased on this. But I'd like to see a grading schedule that gives talented turf youngsters some opportunities to get some black type. I think it's a necessity for the US to ever develop better turf runners. If all the black type is on dirt, why should trainers shift to turf, even if their horse obviously is better on it?

I could set up a much more reasonable schedule for turf grades. I suspect we all could. I just don't see how the current grading system can ever get us there.

[Valuist]

I don't think you can assign more turf graded stakes to 2YOs. For every Kitten's Joy and Artie Schiller who break their maidens on turf as a 2YO, there's countless others can't get out of the NW1X ranks and/or end up descending down the claiming ladder. I love turf racing also, but Crist is correct, IMO.

[foregoforever]

I'm not bullish on 2yo turf races. A lot of turf runners don't even start running until their 3yo season. But I do think the 3yo colts deserve better than only 2 grade 1's. The fillies get 4. I'd be happy shifting some of those highly graded older horse turf races back into the 3yo races.

[Pace Cap'n]

I can't reference the source, but awhile back I recall reading an article that discussed the process "they" use to grade races.

It had more to do with the performance history of previous runners in a particluar race than the ones they expect to run this time.

The breeding or lineage of past runners also figured in the equation.

And that's all I know about that.

[RXB]

Crist justs needs to wait another few years to get his wish. He'll have Grade 1 sprints coming out of his ass, and he won't be bothered by distance races because there'll hardly be any.

[turfspec]

Yes, the Stakes Committee does assign and reassign graded designations based on the quality of fields involved but the real reason for the proliferation and distribution of graded stakes over the last couple of decades is simple - CAPITALISM!

Even with the explosion in purse values in North America an owner (and the industry overall) can expect to make far more on the breeding/sales side of the business than they ever could racing. Helps to explain, at least in part, the early retirement of so many of our equine stars. Started with the then world record syndication of Secretariat and accelerated with the emergence of the Europeans, Saudis and lately the Asians as the big buyers at the sales. These buyers demand the best of the best for their money and the measure of that is most often GrI and GrII winners and their offspring. Supply and demand - basic economics. More graded winners = more potential sales.

A 2yo is at least a year from the breeding shed and lacks the necessary maturity to excel over a distance of ground, a trait the foreign buyer demands. Hence, fewer graded races for 2yos and sprinters. Females can only produce one foal a season and so fewer graded stakes for F&M and more for males. Turf is the surface of choice for the majority of the racing world and thus the growth in the number of graded races of the lawn.

This effort to create a demand and fill it has resulted in a hugh inbalance of trade. The export of potentially our best stock has paradoxically lowered the quality and number of horses available to fill the artificially high number of graded stakes. This inbalance needs to be addressed sooner rather than later.

Rob

[Figman]

Here is a pretty good Nick Kling article on Graded Stakes.
http://tinyurl.com/55vbq

[linrom1]

Crist is never right, turf and routes draw the largest crowds.

[Buddha]

I believe they base a race on its last 5 runnings, thus just the last years field of any given race can't hurt it.