Queston for Mudnturf/Lee T.

[GR1@HTR]

Lee, if you don't mind I wanted to ask you a question.

What are your thoughts about a well bred horse trying the turf for the first time with a lousy trainer? I always have difficulty trying to figure out what is going to happen in these situations.
Thanks in advance.

[mudnturf]

I'd have to first ask what makes a trainer "lousy". Unlike a hitter in baseball, or a pro golfer, whose success or failure is determined by his own ability, a trainer's success or failure is more likely to be attributed to his stock and his owners. How much money was he able to spend to buy those yearlings at Keeneland or Saratoga? Which of his owners could afford to buy that nice 2 year old in training, or claim that horse he liked for $100,000? Not to mention illnesses and ailments that turn dreams into nightmares. So many things beyond the trainer's control, or dependent on outside forces.
Did Rich Schosberg (10% in '02), Howie Tesher (3%), and David Donk (3%), all forget how to train? I doubt it. But their record this year indicates to those unfamiliar with these men that they must be lousy trainers. You get my point.
That all said, when horses are trying the turf for the first, and even second time, especially in maiden races, I look at the breeding first, the rider second, and the trainer third. The reward of huge payoffs often compensates the bettor who is willing to bet the runner(s) with good turf pedigree, despite the trainer's low percentage for the current year.