Pars - Some ASD advice

[Dave Schwartz]

I am working on the HorseStreet 2005 Par Times. As I look at ASD, I have run across an interesting (and common) race condition:

6 Furlongs //3-year-olds & upward, non-winners of three lifetime. Weight, 3-year-olds, 119 lbs. Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners of two races in 2004, 2 lbs. Of one race, 4 lbs. Non-winners of a race in2003, 6 lbs. Claiming Price $12,500-10,000. (1 lbs. allowed for each $500 down to $10,000.) Manitoba-bred 3 and 4-year-olds claiming price 25% more or 3 lbs. allowed.

The race lists as a $12,500 claimer. But, if I understand the conditions correctly, a Manitoba-bred horse will be 25% higher or carry 3 lbs less weight.

You gain weight for a lower claiming price?

My confusion is - Doesn't this seem to be penalizing the statebred horse?

I realize that they get a lot of Montana-breds there. Is this the way they are addressing the US-Canada currency issue?


If you have knowledge of this issue could you please enlighten me?



Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[betovernetcapper]

It sounds to me as though they're allowed to race for 25% higher tag OR get a 3 lb breck in the weights (3lbs less)

[Dave Schwartz]

Okay - I am getting this.

The horse either gets the 3 pounds off or his claiming price is higher.

But the question, then is - "If he does not take the 3 pounds is the price $15,625 or $12,500?"

[Steve 'StatMan']

I sense the Manitoba breds run for $15,625 at full weight. If you want the weight off, you must run at the lower price. The advantage is getting to run your $15,625 claimer vs. $12,000-$10,000 stock if he's an Manitoba Bred.

Might be best to compare a few horse in ASD charts with similar weight conditions.

Some tracks card odd conditions. Prairie Meadows had some races similar to this for IA Breds back in the Spring-Early Summer Meet.

Another wierd one I've seen is in Ohio. Once in a while they run a Clm $3,500 - their lowest level. But, for every 1 pound you're willing to add, you can ADD $500 to the claiming price. So 1 week the race will have horses, at different weights, running for $3,500 up to $7,000. Next time, they spread may be $3,500 to $9,000. So you can run your $9,000 claimer vs. a bunch of cheaper horses, if you're willing to carry more weight.

Oh the wierd things racing secretaries do that complicate a computer-orientated handicapper's life! :D

[RXB]

Turf Paradise has run similar races where AZ-breds run for a higher claiming bracket in a race that also includes non-AZ breds.

I've also seen races in a few places where the claiming condition will be something like "Claiming price $10,000 - $4000." This usually occurs in a marathon event at cheaper tracks like Beulah, when weight differential can actually make a difference. Do you class it as a $10,000 race, or a $4000 race, or something between those two?

One reason I like some of the cheaper tracks like Thistledown and Great Lakes is that many people who read the Racing Form don't know that the exact same abbreviation in the class lines of PP's can be used for very different conditions. E.g., a horse shows a win at 3500n2y in his last race, and is entered today in a "non-winners of two during the past 6 months" affair for the same claiming price. It's got the same class abbreviation (3500n2y), so the handicappers think "Hey, he just won at this very same condition. He's a strong contender." Little do they realize that the n2y in the last race actually meant "non-winners of two races in 2003-2004."

[JackS]

It sounds simular to conditions writen to favor state breds. Example Cl10,000 with a purse $8,000 ($2,500 bonus for horses bred in Florida)
Horses bred in Manitoba are being urged to enter this type of race.
The conditions are just expressed a little different.

[Dave Schwartz]

Thanks guys.

I am getting this.

Jack and Steve got it right... First, there was extra money for statebred horses and now ASD is letting higher class statebreds run against lower class.

Imagine if you had a $16,000 horse and could enter him in a $12,000 race. That is a pretty solid advantage.


Dave

[keilan]

David – there isn’t too many good Manitoba bred runners. What they are trying to do is promote and give incentives to local breeding programs.

The same thing happens here in Alberta for Standard breds not sure about T-breds but I think it is the same. It used to be that the owner of an Alberta bred horse had 25% added to their purse when they got a cheque from a race. It really does promote the breeding industry.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Favors local breds by being able to buy non-locals cheaper.
Look for a 3 yr. old who won in 2002. who is local. Gets 15 lbs. off.

[Dave Schwartz]

Keith,

If you get a chance, give a call and let's discuss some Canadian par issues. As I recall, you had some great feedback for me last year.


Dave

[freeneasy]

as immeadiately excelent as your pars for the t breds are have you ever considered the possibility of putting out a chart for the pacers-trotters? now thats got to be easy peasy.

[maxwell]

There are no T-Breds in Manitoba. Those "horses" are bison that have been shaved. :D

[Dave Schwartz]

Free,

Thank you for the compliment.

The big problems with harness pars and me is:

1. Getting the data in.
2. Market size.


If #2 is a large enough market, I might consider it for 2006.

Perhaps we could discuss it next summer?


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[toetoe]

dave, as keilan said, that's a popular condition with trotter races. some conditions are impossible to ascertain from a single p.p. line, as also mentioned. in northern california they used to have claiming stakes (!) where you got weight off for lowering your price. you can imagine the wide range of prices.

[Dave Schwartz]

ToeToe,

(Are you from Kansas? <G>)

>>>in northern california they used to have claiming stakes (!) where you got weight off for lowering your price<<<

Yes, and I have found that these levels have such a wide range you have to lump them together to make any sense.


Dave

[toetoe]

as i told dorothy, not anymore. she's mad. i practically barked it.