ValueCapper AVC Portfolio Blind Bet Results

[mhaney0423]

JUNE 2021

Hello All,

As promised, here are the results for the month of June using the Valuecapper AntiValue Countdown Portfolio. Here is what I did for this experiment, and I HIGHLY recommend NOT doing this with real money.

I first pulled all race changes at 12PM EST each day, scratches made after that time were not taken into account because I place all my bets for the day at about noon. I did not actually bet these races, at least not in the way I am doing here (BLINDLY) but if I were to do it, this is how I would. After pulling scratches I eliminated all races that Valuecapper said were Red (Consider Passing) or Orange (Proceed with Extreme Caution). I then looked at the AVC portfolio and placed conditional $20 (paper) win bets on each horse listed as AVC with conditional odds being the Valuecapper suggested odds.

Here are the results

58 BETS

4 WINNERS

WIN% 6.9

TOTAL $ BET 1160

TOTAL $ RET 1404

NET $ RETURN +244

ROI 21%

WINNERS PAID $141, $272, $448, $542

Again, I do not personally bet these this way, and I dont recommend ever just blindly betting any selections. I just am running this experiment to show the power of this particular portfolio, and when I have back ran the data, it shows way more profitable months than losing months, I wanted to see if it would be the same if I didnt back fit the data and acted the same as if I was really betting these. The first month of this experiment went about as I expected, although the win % was a bit lower than the 9-10% I usually see.

For anyone with the valuecapper program, please note, I do NOT use default settings and all of these hypothetical bets were made at noon EST so all scratches were not available which would affect the odds, so if you back run this after charts are downloaded you may see different results. Also please note, I do not bet a horse less than 5-1, so if an AVC horse has a VCP of 7/2 it automatically defaults to 5-1 for me

[acorn54]

it's nice to see someway to get a positive roi with software. if one has jcapper with the j factor (no longer available to new purchaser's as far as i know, one gets similiar results on win pct to roi, over thousands of races. unfortunately with only a 7% win rate, one can not bet very much of ones bankroll to make the return return on one's money invested worth mentioning.

[mhaney0423]

it's nice to see someway to get a positive roi with software. if one has jcapper with the j factor (no longer available to new purchaser's as far as i know, one gets similiar results on win pct to roi, over thousands of races. unfortunately with only a 7% win rate, one can not bet very much of ones bankroll to make the return return on one's money invested worth mentioning.

This is exactly why I am doing this experiment, over at least the next 6 months we shall see. I believe, and have seen, that this portfolio is profitable over the long haul. I do not believe one could bet a huge amount because you are going to have a negative effect on your odds. At some of the smaller tracks betting $1000 on a 20-1 is going to make it a 2-1 favorite or worse. Let's see what happens over the long haul here, this could be a complete waste of time or.......it may not.

[geroge.burns99]

This is exactly why I am doing this experiment, over at least the next 6 months we shall see. I believe, and have seen, that this portfolio is profitable over the long haul. I do not believe one could bet a huge amount because you are going to have a negative effect on your odds. At some of the smaller tracks betting $1000 on a 20-1 is going to make it a 2-1 favorite or worse. Let's see what happens over the long haul here, this could be a complete waste of time or.......it may not.

Nice going Matt....

Do you do any reading of the PP's on your bets?

[mhaney0423]

Nice going Matt....

Do you do any reading of the PP's on your bets?

Of course I do, but not for the purposes of this experiment. Here Im betting them blindly (on paper only) without looking at pps just to show what this portfolio can do. There are a few guys who are new to Valuecapper here and this is where I would start.

If a flat bet profit can be made without looking at pps, imagine what can be done while looking at pps and using a little common sense!!

[geroge.burns99]

Of course I do, but not for the purposes of this experiment. Here Im betting them blindly (on paper only) without looking at pps just to show what this portfolio can do. There are a few guys who are new to Valuecapper here and this is where I would start.

If a flat bet profit can be made without looking at pps, imagine what can be done while looking at pps and using a little common sense!!

exactly my thinking.....

In your experiment your going to bet every horse....

But that doesn't mean it has to be a set amount...

Say, theres a horse thats 1-35 lifetime....Does he deserve a $20 ticket?

One of those winners you showed there , CD $44 , he showed a improvement pattern and that he hasn't ran a top fig...

That would be a Prime bet for me.....:)

Mike

[mhaney0423]

exactly my thinking.....

In your experiment your going to bet every horse....

But that doesn't mean it has to be a set amount...

Say, theres a horse thats 1-35 lifetime....Does he deserve a $20 ticket?

One of those winners you showed there , CD $44 , he showed a improvement pattern and that he hasn't ran a top fig...

That would be a Prime bet for me.....:)

Mike

LOL I knew that was you, no need to give away the identity HAHA. To answer your question, yes that horse is worth a $20 bet GIVEN THE RIGHT PRICE. Price dictates whether a bet is made, not record, trainer, jockey, etc, etc.

You have to remember a horse may be 1-35 lifetime BUT EVERY RACE IS DIFFERENT. We dont know how many of the previous races were close to todays conditions, with antivalue above the horse. What Valuecapper gives me is a good oddsline, if I believe that oddsline which I normally check to see if I do believe it (has the horse shown anything at all recently, if not are the master pace numbers still in the ballpark?) if so then given the proper odds Im making that bet.

[Kbatch57]

JUNE 2021

Hello All,

As promised, here are the results for the month of June using the Valuecapper AntiValue Countdown Portfolio. Here is what I did for this experiment, and I HIGHLY recommend NOT doing this with real money.

I first pulled all race changes at 12PM EST each day, scratches made after that time were not taken into account because I place all my bets for the day at about noon. I did not actually bet these races, at least not in the way I am doing here (BLINDLY) but if I were to do it, this is how I would. After pulling scratches I eliminated all races that Valuecapper said were Red (Consider Passing) or Orange (Proceed with Extreme Caution). I then looked at the AVC portfolio and placed conditional $20 (paper) win bets on each horse listed as AVC with conditional odds being the Valuecapper suggested odds.

Here are the results

58 BETS

4 WINNERS

WIN% 6.9

TOTAL $ BET 1160

TOTAL $ RET 1404

NET $ RETURN +244

ROI 21%

WINNERS PAID $141, $272, $448, $542

Again, I do not personally bet these this way, and I dont recommend ever just blindly betting any selections. I just am running this experiment to show the power of this particular portfolio, and when I have back ran the data, it shows way more profitable months than losing months, I wanted to see if it would be the same if I didnt back fit the data and acted the same as if I was really betting these. The first month of this experiment went about as I expected, although the win % was a bit lower than the 9-10% I usually see.

For anyone with the valuecapper program, please note, I do NOT use default settings and all of these hypothetical bets were made at noon EST so all scratches were not available which would affect the odds, so if you back run this after charts are downloaded you may see different results. Also please note, I do not bet a horse less than 5-1, so if an AVC horse has a VCP of 7/2 it automatically defaults to 5-1 for me
Matt - for the Race that you hit for $542 wasn't that a Highly Pressured/Highly Pressured Race? which defaults to Late Bias?

Late bias does not show the 9 horse as AVC you would have to change the bias to Neutral for the 9 horse to have the AVC designation.

Unless it is due to your settings as you mentioned in your post. :)

If I choose the AVC portfolio with my current settings (ValueCapper default) that race is not even listed in the filtered races.

So, we don't know if the AVC Portfolio will provide the same results that you are seeing
for someone else using ValueCapper right out of the box with the stock settings.

[geroge.burns99]

LOL I knew that was you, no need to give away the identity HAHA. To answer your question, yes that horse is worth a $20 bet GIVEN THE RIGHT PRICE. Price dictates whether a bet is made, not record, trainer, jockey, etc, etc.

You have to remember a horse may be 1-35 lifetime BUT EVERY RACE IS DIFFERENT. We dont know how many of the previous races were close to todays conditions, with antivalue above the horse. What Valuecapper gives me is a good oddsline, if I believe that oddsline which I normally check to see if I do believe it (has the horse shown anything at all recently, if not are the master pace numbers still in the ballpark?) if so then given the proper odds Im making that bet.

OK...got it...looking forward to your test and future posts...

thxs

[mhaney0423]

Matt - for the Race that you hit for $542 wasn't that a Highly Pressured/Highly Pressured Race? which defaults to Late Bias?

Late bias does not show the 9 horse as AVC you would have to change the bias to Neutral for the 9 horse to have the AVC designation.

Unless it is due to your settings as you mentioned in your post. :)

If I choose the AVC portfolio with my current settings (ValueCapper default) that race is not even listed in the filtered races.

So, we don't know if the AVC Portfolio will provide the same results that you are seeing
for someone else using ValueCapper right out of the box with the stock settings.

Good catch, that is a Highly Pressured/Highly Pressured race, then take a look at the Track profile (attached), I normally switch the bias to neutral on these types of races especially given the track profile here. The :9: is a closer but normally is in striking range at 2nd call as confirmed by AcP the :6: who would have been the pick with a late bias was a dead closer who was not within 8L at 2nd call AcP

Edit: I actually play this portfolio so I take a close look at these races, I have not been turning my changes back to straight out of the box. This was a fairly simple call and I will say on red highly pressured race I always turn the bias to neutral and see what it does.....if something catches my eye I will look further. I do something similar on Gulfstream turf races...I switch the bias from late to Early as speed often holds on the GP turf.

[Kbatch57]

Good catch, that is a Highly Pressured/Highly Pressured race, then take a look at the Track profile (attached), I normally switch the bias to neutral on these types of races especially given the track profile here. The :9: is a closer but normally is in striking range at 2nd call as confirmed by AcP the :6: who would have been the pick with a late bias was a dead closer who was not within 8L at 2nd call AcP

Edit: I actually play this portfolio so I take a close look at these races, I have not been turning my changes back to straight out of the box. This was a fairly simple call and I will say on red highly pressured race I always turn the bias to neutral and see what it does.....if something catches my eye I will look further. I do something similar on Gulfstream turf races...I switch the bias from late to Early as speed often holds on the GP turf.
Hi Matt,

Thanks for taking the time to explain your take on that race and the methodology that you use. It is appreciated!

[cato]

mhaney says-- "If a flat bet profit can be made without looking at pps, imagine what can be done while looking at pps and using a little common sense!!"

That's the positive, optimistic approach of just about all handicappers but my guess is that if you apply common sense to this portfolio you will eliminate one or more of your four (4) winners and flip it negative!

At least I know I would.

[PaceAdvantage]

mhaney says-- "If a flat bet profit can be made without looking at pps, imagine what can be done while looking at pps and using a little common sense!!"

That's the positive, optimistic approach of just about all handicappers but my guess is that if you apply common sense to this portfolio you will eliminate one or more of your four (4) winners and flip it negative!

At least I know I would.My thoughts exactly.

[pandy]

mhaney says-- "If a flat bet profit can be made without looking at pps, imagine what can be done while looking at pps and using a little common sense!!"

That's the positive, optimistic approach of just about all handicappers but my guess is that if you apply common sense to this portfolio you will eliminate one or more of your four (4) winners and flip it negative!

At least I know I would.

Yes, that's what happens, and it happens a lot. Even people that are good at thinking outside of the box usually come up with the obvious contenders most of the time. The beauty of using a computer to spot live longshots is that the system can be programmed to rank longshot indicators without bias.

[mhaney0423]

mhaney says-- "If a flat bet profit can be made without looking at pps, imagine what can be done while looking at pps and using a little common sense!!"

That's the positive, optimistic approach of just about all handicappers but my guess is that if you apply common sense to this portfolio you will eliminate one or more of your four (4) winners and flip it negative!

At least I know I would.

It can be done. ask me how I know! I am not going to say here exactly how I do it, but I will say that by eliminating certain race types/scenarios the ROI can be improved over a period of time.

I do not go in and pass certain races or horses on a whim, it is because I have spent hours and hours researching this over a long period of time. I dont care what a horse looks like, because the very premise of this portfolio is betting against horses with POSSIBLE flaws, in which case, the best horse or the logical contenders dont always win.

[cato]

Hey, Matt! I did not mean to make a negative post - just the voice of caution based only on my experience. In fact your posts and work-up are really interesting and I am going to take a deep dive into this portfolio.

I'm sure you've looked at this a lot of different ways but I took a look at the races that are "proceed with great [extreme] caution" and found them to be profitable with 35 bets and 5 winners. I only looked at June 1- 16 because I'm doing it manually so it's a small small small sample - but all of this is very promising.

Thanks for sharing and discussing your work.

Best, Frank

[mhaney0423]

Hey, Matt! I did not mean to make a negative post - just the voice of caution based only on my experience. In fact your posts and work-up are really interesting and I am going to take a deep dive into this portfolio.

I'm sure you've looked at this a lot of different ways but I took a look at the races that are "proceed with great [extreme] caution" and found them to be profitable with 35 bets and 5 winners. I only looked at June 1- 16 because I'm doing it manually so it's a small small small sample - but all of this is very promising.

Thanks for sharing and discussing your work.

Best, Frank

Hi Frank,

I will give you a hint, eliminate any stakes race or MSW race, through 6 months this year that decreased total bets from 232 to 204 and did not eliminate a single winner. This actually makes sense because stakes quality horses run well off layoffs all the time and layoffs are a big part of antivalue. MSW are stakes quality horses in a lot of cases.

I have never tried this on orange races, have always eliminated them, but I may have to look into that if what you found holds true.

I also have to do this manually so it is very time consuming. I didnt think your post was negative, I just wanted to make sure everyone understood that I didnt just post this out of the blue, I have looked at it for several years, so what I say has definitely held true in the past, but its horseracing so as we all know to well, the past doesnt always predict the future. Best of luck.

[Kbatch57]

Hey, Matt! I did not mean to make a negative post - just the voice of caution based only on my experience. In fact your posts and work-up are really interesting and I am going to take a deep dive into this portfolio.

I'm sure you've looked at this a lot of different ways but I took a look at the races that are "proceed with great [extreme] caution" and found them to be profitable with 35 bets and 5 winners. I only looked at June 1- 16 because I'm doing it manually so it's a small small small sample - but all of this is very promising.

Thanks for sharing and discussing your work.

Best, Frank
Cato - Are you using the program out of the box or have you made some modifications to the settings or process as Matt has done?

Also, are you only playing/checking AVC horses that meet a minimum odds requirement?

For a true test of any profile. I would assume that you would select that profile and only play or evaluate the races that are listed in the race list after being filtered by that profile.

Or you can take the approach of looking at all races changing the odds bias and mark any races that now contain an AVC Horse for further evaluation.

This would be an interesting test!

Thanks!

[lefty359]

Thanks, Matt for stoking my interest in VC again. Doing much better this time than first time around.

[mhaney0423]

Cato - Are you using the program out of the box or have you made some modifications to the settings or process as Matt has done?

Also, are you only playing/checking AVC horses that meet a minimum odds requirement?

For a true test of any profile. I would assume that you would select that profile and only play or evaluate the races that are listed in the race list after being filtered by that profile.

Or you can take the approach of looking at all races changing the odds bias and mark any races that now contain an AVC Horse for further evaluation.

This would be an interesting test!

Thanks!

One should not be changing the odds bias without a good reason. I normally do this if a race comes up red highly pressured because it simply means that the track profile shows that horses do not generally win these races from far off the pace. I stay fairly conservative here and simply switch the bias to neutral, I probably miss some winners this way and catch a few winners this way. I think consistency is paramount here.

[mhaney0423]

Thanks, Matt for stoking my interest in VC again. Doing much better this time than first time around.

That is good to hear, just stick with it, if you hit a rough patch, decrease your bet size or better yet simply focus on one profile until you can consistently make a profit with it. I find myself having to return to the basics every so often as well, this can be a very tough game :D

[cato]

kbatch57 asked -
"Cato - Are you using the program out of the box or have you made some modifications to the settings or process as Matt has done?"

----> After tinkering around a great deal with various settings, I went back to the default settings, which are the ones Michael P. uses. Many people tweak them especially on the length of days in a layoff. I found that it did not make a big difference for me but I wanted to be consistent and follow along with Michael. Unless people do something crazy in their settings, I don't think it makes a lot of difference.

-----> As to process, I think just about everyone uses different approaches, emphasis, processes, etc. The program provides a LOT of information that you can slice and dice in many different ways. Even those who follow the basic line of finding a horse with some "good" stuff per the VC program (possibly hidden from public or at least opaque) that the public should not like (e.g., bad recent finish, bad recent #s, mediocre trainer/jock, class challenged, shipper, etc.) have an almost infinite of options (well maybe not infinite, but a lot of options to proceed from there. Some gals go for Lone closers, lone speed, certain patterns, fields of x horses, class risers, droppers, etc. But I follow a relatively consistent approach along the lines that Michael P suggests (and I think Matt's approach) but I have not gone back to study it.

"Also, are you only playing/checking AVC horses that meet a minimum odds requirement?"

---> I checked all AVC horses for my study and I had different categories of acceptable odds, (acceptable odds and odds too low) and races that say "consider passing" or come with a warning of "proceed with great care" aka the orange races. I normally check "odds too high" but I did not do that this time. Normally I will only bet a horse at minimum odds of 9/2 +/-.

"For a true test of any profile. I would assume that you would select that profile and only play or evaluate the races that are listed in the race list after being filtered by that profile."

--->Yes, it's an easy way to evaluate a portfolio.


"Or you can take the approach of looking at all races changing the odds bias and mark any races that now contain an AVC Horse for further evaluation."

----> Oh no! That sounds terrible and a lot of wasted time! There are so many things you can click on to take a different look at pace scenarios, pace lines. output, etc., that it's a never ending rabbit chase. I'm like Matt and the only time I may change the pace scenario is when it is highlighted in red which means the pace scenario and track profile are inconsistent - so if I am interested in that race I'll click around (and normally pass that race).

--->I've called what I did a "study" but I just reviewed 15 days of races to get a feel for the portfolio - to see if my experience with the AVC portfolio was relatively consistent with Matts' - and it was. So that's enough for me to keep it in my radar screen and see if I can make it produce, when is it more effective etc. But I'm not big on large data base studies because all the ones I've seen end up negative in the long run (and often the short run for that matter). I'm also data challenged and pass out when people start throwing data and stats at me... zzzzzzzzzz (having said that I am incredibly impressed by people like CJ et al who maintain or have access to a data base and can interpret the information in a meaningful way).

That's all folks!

[Kbatch57]

kbatch57 asked -
"Cato - Are you using the program out of the box or have you made some modifications to the settings or process as Matt has done?"

----> After tinkering around a great deal with various settings, I went back to the default settings, which are the ones Michael P. uses. Many people tweak them especially on the length of days in a layoff. I found that it did not make a big difference for me but I wanted to be consistent and follow along with Michael. Unless people do something crazy in their settings, I don't think it makes a lot of difference.

-----> As to process, I think just about everyone uses different approaches, emphasis, processes, etc. The program provides a LOT of information that you can slice and dice in many different ways. Even those who follow the basic line of finding a horse with some "good" stuff per the VC program (possibly hidden from public or at least opaque) that the public should not like (e.g., bad recent finish, bad recent #s, mediocre trainer/jock, class challenged, shipper, etc.) have an almost infinite of options (well maybe not infinite, but a lot of options to proceed from there. Some gals go for Lone closers, lone speed, certain patterns, fields of x horses, class risers, droppers, etc. But I follow a relatively consistent approach along the lines that Michael P suggests (and I think Matt's approach) but I have not gone back to study it.

"Also, are you only playing/checking AVC horses that meet a minimum odds requirement?"

---> I checked all AVC horses for my study and I had different categories of acceptable odds, (acceptable odds and odds too low) and races that say "consider passing" or come with a warning of "proceed with great care" aka the orange races. I normally check "odds too high" but I did not do that this time. Normally I will only bet a horse at minimum odds of 9/2 +/-.

"For a true test of any profile. I would assume that you would select that profile and only play or evaluate the races that are listed in the race list after being filtered by that profile."

--->Yes, it's an easy way to evaluate a portfolio.


"Or you can take the approach of looking at all races changing the odds bias and mark any races that now contain an AVC Horse for further evaluation."

----> Oh no! That sounds terrible and a lot of wasted time! There are so many things you can click on to take a different look at pace scenarios, pace lines. output, etc., that it's a never ending rabbit chase. I'm like Matt and the only time I may change the pace scenario is when it is highlighted in red which means the pace scenario and track profile are inconsistent - so if I am interested in that race I'll click around (and normally pass that race).

--->I've called what I did a "study" but I just reviewed 15 days of races to get a feel for the portfolio - to see if my experience with the AVC portfolio was relatively consistent with Matts' - and it was. So that's enough for me to keep it in my radar screen and see if I can make it produce, when is it more effective etc. But I'm not big on large data base studies because all the ones I've seen end up negative in the long run (and often the short run for that matter). I'm also data challenged and pass out when people start throwing data and stats at me... zzzzzzzzzz (having said that I am incredibly impressed by people like CJ et al who maintain or have access to a data base and can interpret the information in a meaningful way).

That's all folks!
Cato,
Thanks for the explanation and clarification!

It is appreciated!

Question: If you were just starting out with the Program which portfolio's would you begin with?

Thanks!

[headhawg]

I don't use ValueCapper nor do I plan to, but I just want to say I think the help and positive feedback in this thread is refreshing. Nice job guys. Good luck to all.

[mhaney0423]

I don't use ValueCapper nor do I plan to, but I just want to say I think the help and positive feedback in this thread is refreshing. Nice job guys. Good luck to all.

Thank you sir, I try to be helpful in the horse racing part of the forum. Besides, if I want to argue and call names I can just jump over to Off Topic General lol. :lol:

[geroge.burns99]

MP just sent out an unusual email out to guys that that gets his RANTS

Its unusual because its not for big races..its a handicapping video...

I have never seen this before...

Anyway , it should be a good watch....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIj2DKx5KTs


GB :)

[fight]

ITS A RANT ALL ABOUT THE FULCRUM ENJOY.

[geroge.burns99]

ITS A RANT ALL ABOUT THE FULCRUM ENJOY.

It was good info :ThmbUp:

[lefty359]

Yes, it was a good video. Race players have a lot of misconceptions about the Fulcrum.

[geroge.burns99]

The key is.......... "playing horses that the public doesn't"

This should be a starting point for all players, software or not.

It all starts with a vulnerable favorite which I preach all the time...:)


GB

[mhaney0423]

Hey guys wont update results for July until I get back from vacation on August 9th, It has been a tough month betting AVC horses and I thought we were looking at a losing month but just nailed a 23-1 winner in todays GP3 that should have us in the black for July. Will update ASAP

Matt

[geroge.burns99]

Hey guys wont update results for July until I get back from vacation on August 9th, It has been a tough month betting AVC horses and I thought we were looking at a losing month but just nailed a 23-1 winner in todays GP3 that should have us in the black for July. Will update ASAP

Matt

Thx Matt looking forward to that....

I need you to talk to my wife , she hasn't left home since last March....

:eek:

Mike

[mhaney0423]

Thx Matt looking forward to that....

I need you to talk to my wife , she hasn't left home since last March....

:eek:

Mike

We hadn't traveled any where for at least 18 months before last month when we went down to Myrtle Beach. Now we're off to Hawaii for a week.

[geroge.burns99]

We hadn't traveled any where for at least 18 months before last month when we went down to Myrtle Beach. Now we're off to Hawaii for a week.

Nice!!

Enjoy

[thaskalos]

MP just sent out an unusual email out to guys that that gets his RANTS

Its unusual because its not for big races..its a handicapping video...

I have never seen this before...

Anyway , it should be a good watch....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIj2DKx5KTs


GB :)

That's some solid 19th century handicapping right there! :ThmbUp:

[geroge.burns99]

That's some solid 19th century handicapping right there! :ThmbUp:

Do you have anything better? :lol:

[thaskalos]

Do you have anything better? :lol:

I am working on my own Youtube handicapping video, as we speak. :ThmbUp:

[thaskalos]

"In order for a race to qualify as 'fulcrum', the horse must contend at the finish and the second call"...Pizzolla says. Which begs the question:

If a sprinting closer doesn't contend the lead at the four furlong marker, but then goes on to win the race...doesn't this horse deserve credit for OVERCOMING the fast early pace? Why should such a race be excluded from fulcrum consideration?

[geroge.burns99]

"In order for a race to qualify as 'fulcrum', the horse must contend at the finish and the second call"...Pizzolla says. Which begs the question:

If a sprinting closer doesn't contend the lead at the four furlong marker, but then goes on to win the race...doesn't this horse deserve credit for OVERCOMING the fast early pace? Why should such a race be excluded from fulcrum consideration?

I'm not sure about that....

Actually I see this whole thing as a contender process........

When he points a horse as the fulcrum shouldn't be something that the others have to measure up too??

Mike

Hey Thas....Can I have your first autograph before you become the next Benter

:jump:

[thaskalos]

I'm not sure about that....

Actually I see this whole thing as a contender process........

When he points a horse as the fulcrum shouldn't be something that the others have to measure up too??

Mike

Hey Thas....Can I have your first autograph before you become the next Benter

:jump:

No! I have no need for fanboys.

[geroge.burns99]

No! I have no need for fanboys.

Ok ...be like that....


Just remember who was there when things got bad....


:rolleyes:

[thaskalos]

Ok ...be like that....


Just remember who was there when things got bad....


:rolleyes:

Friend...for the horseplayer...NO ONE is there when things go bad.

[geroge.burns99]

Friend...for the horseplayer...NO ONE is there when things go bad.

:ThmbUp:

just joking around thas

[lefty359]

The fulcrum was good for weeding out horses that couldn't compete for
today's pace. It wasn't perfect, but what is?
I find his Master Pace numbers to be even better. They have kept me off a lot of bad bets.

[andicap]

My biggest issue with this type of betting is, what happens if you miss a day and that's when your 23-1 shot hits? Sure, you may also stay off a lot of losers but when your profit depends on hitting a smattering of long odds horses each month wouldn't it be devastating if you missed one of them?

[NorCalGreg]

My biggest issue with this type of betting is, what happens if you miss a day and that's when your 23-1 shot hits? Sure, you may also stay off a lot of losers but when your profit depends on hitting a smattering of long odds horses each month wouldn't it be devastating if you missed one of them?

I've come across that situation many times, Andi. To add insult to injury, a couple times I simply didn't get the bet down, that day. Was distracted, on the phone, whatever...and made every bet I planned--EXCEPT the one big winner. Somehow I missed it (and it's happened more than once). Believe me, that will ruin your day (and DAYS afterward)

When I discover a play that must be, at least, checked every day for suitability and wagering...I just forget about it, and move on.

If I miss those two-three plays a years that would guarantee (allegedly), a profit... so be it.

Life, and wagering, and everything that includes, can be fun--and doesn't have to be a bunch of us gumshoe horseplayers grinding out a rather mundane existence.

[mhaney0423]

My biggest issue with this type of betting is, what happens if you miss a day and that's when your 23-1 shot hits? Sure, you may also stay off a lot of losers but when your profit depends on hitting a smattering of long odds horses each month wouldn't it be devastating if you missed one of them?

I have been doing this for quite some time and I know that I can expect somewhere between about 8-10% winners over the long haul with somewhere around 15-1 average odds. I have missed the whole week this week and I couldnt care less because I know 90% of the bets I missed were losers anyway and when I start up again its still gonna be 8-10% winners at about 15-1. Its not for everyone which is what I have said, it takes discipline, patience and most of all proper capital. Hopefully the purpose of this thread was to show it could be done with minimal effort and little afterthought. I could also make a fool of myself before its over lol. Hope to post July results when I get home Sunday from Hawaii, I do know there was another short priced (~8-1) winner on the 31st that hit while i was flying.....placed those bets at like 7AM eastern!

M

[mhaney0423]

Here are the July 2021 results

48 BETS

6 WINNERS

WIN% 12.5

TOTAL $ BET 960

TOTAL $ RET 1550

NET $ RETURN +590

ROI 61.46%

WINNERS PAID $128, $172, $364, $490, $220, $176

Was a pretty big month, admittedly, If I somehow did not bet on 7/30, it wouldve been a losing month, but the fact is, I did bet that day and had both winners. I did miss the first week of August so we will see how that affected things when I post August results.

Anyway here are the running two month totals

106 BETS

10 WINNERS

WIN% 9.4

TOTAL $ BET 2120

TOTAL $ RETURNED $2954

NET $ RETURNED 834

ROI 39.34%

AVG WINNER ODDS 13,7 - 1

Lets see where the month of August takes us

[mhaney0423]

Forgot attachments

[geroge.burns99]

Forgot attachments

Excellent Matt.....

Shows you can win with 10% and that you don't have to bet favorites....


Mike

[headhawg]

Good stuff. It's great to see someone having success that is actually believable. Some of the redboarding that goes on here is nauseating. Keep it going, Matt.

[lefty359]

Pizzolla told me the size of Bankroll doesn't matter but to bet no morethan one percent on a play. Good advice I think.


Thanks, Matt for doing this.

[mhaney0423]

Pizzolla told me the size of Bankroll doesn't matter but to bet no morethan one percent on a play. Good advice I think.


Thanks, Matt for doing this.

Thanks Chuck! How is your ValueCapping going?

[mhaney0423]

My biggest issue with this type of betting is, what happens if you miss a day and that's when your 23-1 shot hits? Sure, you may also stay off a lot of losers but when your profit depends on hitting a smattering of long odds horses each month wouldn't it be devastating if you missed one of them?

For what its worth, here's what happened for the week I missed, as you can see, no major disaster :p

[Kbatch57]

For what its worth, here's what happened for the week I missed, as you can see, no major disaster :p
Hi Matt,

For the Horses that didn't win how many finished 2nd and what was the average place price?

Just wondering if it would be worth playing Win/Place or playing the AVC horse in an exacta.

[mhaney0423]

Hi Matt,

For the Horses that didn't win how many finished 2nd and what was the average place price?

Just wondering if it would be worth playing Win/Place or playing the AVC horse in an exacta.

I have not kept track of that data, although I will say that I was betting 10 to win and 20 to place for a few months and I lost money on the place bets. Problem is these come in second a lot behind an odds on favorite which just kills place prices. Sometimes now, if I get a high priced AVC say 20-1 or better I will bet 20 to win and a $2 fav over avc and then maybe a 1$ all over avc exacta, but thats only if I happen to be watching the races/board which is not often. I was watching when covid first hit and I started this thread but since back to work I can usually only bet conditionally on weekdays.

As you know, there is no way to automate or backrun data easily with valuecapper, it has to all be done by hand.

Best,

M

[geroge.burns99]

Hi Matt,

For the Horses that didn't win how many finished 2nd and what was the average place price?

Just wondering if it would be worth playing Win/Place or playing the AVC horse in an exacta.

I was going to ask same question but show us the selection....

There is truth in reviewing why a horse loses and wins

Matt , do you look to see if the favorite is vulnerable?

Mike

[lefty359]

Matt, I'm doing pretty good. Since I started I'm ahead on Win bets and the few exactas I've played. I've noticed that most of my profits have come when I play against a vulnerable fav.
Thanks for your help. And continued success.

[mhaney0423]

I was going to ask same question but show us the selection....

There is truth in reviewing why a horse loses and wins

Matt , do you look to see if the favorite is vulnerable?

Mike

Hey Mike, the portfolio Anti Value Countfown itself means that at LEAST 2 of the horses rated above the actual AVC horse have anti value.....this can be layoff, negative class drop, hard last race, hard race off layoff, etc. Usually but not always, the favorite is one of those horse that Valuecapper rates high but has anti value. Anti value at low odds is a horrible bet, anti value at acceptable odds is another thing.

[Kbatch57]

Hi Matt,
Since you are tracking the Distance, Surface and Race Description in the bet log have you filtered by each of these to see what type of races you are more successful at?

Wondering if the winners have anything in common or are they scattered all over the place?

It would be interesting as well, if you were tracking the positional and velocity race types to see if there is any correlation between these and the winning horses when using the AVC Portfolio.

[mhaney0423]

Hi Matt,
Since you are tracking the Distance, Surface and Race Description in the bet log have you filtered by each of these to see what type of races you are more successful at?

Wondering if the winners have anything in common or are they scattered all over the place?

It would be interesting as well, if you were tracking the positional and velocity race types to see if there is any correlation between these and the winning horses when using the AVC Portfolio.

That could be interesting, but as of yet I have not looked into it. Probably would need to create my own database rather than using the one that came with valuecapper but that is not too difficult to do.

M

[geroge.burns99]

Hey Mike, the portfolio Anti Value Countfown itself means that at LEAST 2 of the horses rated above the actual AVC horse have anti value.....this can be layoff, negative class drop, hard last race, hard race off layoff, etc. Usually but not always, the favorite is one of those horse that Valuecapper rates high but has anti value. Anti value at low odds is a horrible bet, anti value at acceptable odds is another thing.

So, if your plays are hitting at 10%

then what is the 2 anti-value hit rate?

:confused:

[mhaney0423]

So, if your plays are hitting at 10%

then what is the 2 anti-value hit rate?

:confused:

Not sure I understand the question, they all have at least two anti value horses above them, less than two and its not in that portfolio. Sometimes they have 5 antivalue horses above them or 4 or 3 and always at least 2.

[geroge.burns99]

Not sure I understand the question, they all have at least two anti value horses above them, less than two and its not in that portfolio. Sometimes they have 5 antivalue horses above them or 4 or 3 and always at least 2.

if you miss your bet did you notice who the winner was?

the thing i'm trying to figure out is , are the anti-value horse that bad or do they still win at a good rate...

[mhaney0423]

if you miss your bet did you notice who the winner was?

the thing i'm trying to figure out is , are the anti-value horse that bad or do they still win at a good rate...

Oh now I see, yes AV horses win all the time, at a short price though they are not worth an investment, at a long price.....maybe, maybe not. Valuecapper is not like HTR where it totally database oriented. In fact to my knowledge Vcp ratings cannot even be exported so it would be a helluva lot of work answering some of the questions here.

M

[mhaney0423]

if you miss your bet did you notice who the winner was?

the thing i'm trying to figure out is , are the anti-value horse that bad or do they still win at a good rate...

I would also add that AVC horses win all the time but are too bet down for me to invest, its all about waiting for your price, even when you wanted 15-1 and your horse isn't bet because it went off at 14-1 and won for fun. I have learned to really not even watch any more, I just look at my balance a few times a day, much less frustration that way lol.

M

[geroge.burns99]

I would also add that AVC horses win all the time but are too bet down for me to invest, its all about waiting for your price, even when you wanted 15-1 and your horse isn't bet because it went off at 14-1 and won for fun. I have learned to really not even watch any more, I just look at my balance a few times a day, much less frustration that way lol.

M

:ThmbUp:

thank you

if you dont mind Matt....please include the horses/races that you bet because i would like to investigate the race and see if there are any hidden stuff that some fresh eyes can give you for better plays ...
Of course after they run...:cool:

Mike

[mhaney0423]

Well folks, I have to report it was an absolutely atrocious month for AVC horses, by far and away the worst month I have seen since I have owned Valuecapper, which dates back > 3years. I will say that fortunately I was in Hawaii August 1-8 without my laptop so I was fortunate to miss out on 12 losers totaling $240 worth of losses but I do include those losses here so as not to skew how bad it truly was, so without further adieu.......

53 BETS

2 WINNERS

WIN% = 3.77

TOTAL BET $1060

TOTAL RETURNED $346

NET RETURN -$714

ROI -67.36%

WINNERS PAID $230 and $116



So this brings our running totals since June 1st 2021 to

159 BETS

12 WINNERS

WIN% = 7.55

TOTAL BET $3180

TOTAL RETURNED $3300

NET RETURN +$120

ROI 3.77%

Still ahead but almost just spinning our wheels.

Now its almost time to tell you all what I already knew about this when I said in post #5 of this thread If a flat bet profit can be made without looking at pps, imagine what can be done while looking at pps and using a little common sense!!
To which Cato, PA, and Pandy all said I was wrong in posts 12, 13, and 14.

But before I bother to tell this, I want someone here to seriously consider what type of races could be eliminated to make the ROI on this go seriously up from 3.77% to 46.14%. Consider the name of this profile we are using is called ANTIVALUE COUNTDOWN. Antivalue is considered to be LAYOFFS, HARD LAST RACE, NEGATIVE CLASS DROP, POOR RECENT FORM, POOR LAST RACE, HARD LAST RACE, HARD RACE OFF LAYOFF, MAIDEN CLAIMING WINNER WITHOUT SUFFICIENT CLASS DROP.
Hint, LAYOFFS is key, what type of horses typically run well off layoffs? Or, a better question, which class(es) of race would one expect layoff horses to run well?

[geroge.burns99]

First off Matt....thanks for putting this together

Telling you what to pass on using these 2 winners is kinda difficult to say...:eek:

But to Answer your question on layoffs....IMO Turf horses are better equip to come back from a layoff to win...

I have a list on "Bad favorites" that can help in maybe deciding on AV horses..



Our “Bad Favorites” feature identifies morning line favorites weaker than normal. Some will beat us by winning, but tend to pay less than avg. favorites do. Each day’s “Bad” faves are computer selected, using general patterns of losing favorites. But the computer is not programmed to look for many things which will help I.D. weaker favourites. The following are additional factors common to losing favorites.

1. It’s barely favorite. It’s odds might be 8-5 and another horse is 9-5.
2. It’s ridden by a weak jockey. Someone who wins under 10% of his rides.
3. The jockey has “2nd-itis.” He might have ridden 150 times, had 10 winners and 18 or more places. Rule of thumb? One third more 2nd’s than wins, disqualifies the jock(and horse!) as a possible WIN bet.
4. It’s a 1st time starter from a leading trainer, who’s weak in the category. Especially with a 2 year old.
5. A first time 2 y.o. starting from the rail. Worst are dashes less than 5 furlongs.
6. There are 3 or more first timers in the race.
7. 2nd time starter, ran in the $ or close last time, but its speed fig (Beyer) is well below par for the class.
8. 2nd timer, “Off slowly” then made up a lot of ground. They tend to have gate trouble again.
9. Poor form and switches from grass to dirt. Especially with European horses entered in their first N. American race of a mile or less.
10. European horses, fresh off the plane win their first here on grass, and today is their 2nd N. American grass start. Called the “Euro Bounce.”
11. Multi-switches today. Switches track, surface, distance, jockey, class, weather, etc. The more new things that horses have to try at once, the worse they do.
12. Horse coming off a career best speed fig last time. Especially if the last was 7 or more pts. higher.
Even more so if it is back in less than 3 weeks. It figures to need time to recuperate.
13. Horse had a bad trip last time. Especially prone to repeat bad trips are deep closers. Worst are deep closers with weak jockeys.
14. Horse only wins wire-to-wire and 2 or more speed horses are inside it today.
15. Outside post when race starts very near the first turn. Speed horses out there are especially vulnerable unless there are ZERO other speed horses inside.
16. Jocks who are very weak finishers and can’t keep a speed horse going in late scratch. Ones mentioned earlier with 2nd-itis are especially prone to lose stretch duels with speed horses.
17. Good horse in the mud with a bad or frightened wet track jockey.
18. A negative class dropper. Meaning it ran well last out, finishing no worse than a close 4th, not beaten more than 4-5 lengths, in a class it’s proved it can handle. Today for no apparent reason, the horse is dropping in class. BEWARE: many barns don’t want to winter a horse for 3-6 months and drop them one class as the meet winds down.

Finally, there is a huge difference between a good horse and a good bet. If you must play a “Bad” fave, insist on 3-1 odds. If its odds are less than that, play exactas only.


mike

[mhaney0423]

First off Matt....thanks for putting this together

Telling you what to pass on using these 2 winners is kinda difficult to say...:eek:

But to Answer your question on layoffs....IMO Turf horses are better equip to come back from a layoff to win...

I have a list on "Bad favorites" that can help in maybe deciding on AV horses..



Our “Bad Favorites” feature identifies morning line favorites weaker than normal. Some will beat us by winning, but tend to pay less than avg. favorites do. Each day’s “Bad” faves are computer selected, using general patterns of losing favorites. But the computer is not programmed to look for many things which will help I.D. weaker favourites. The following are additional factors common to losing favorites.

1. It’s barely favorite. It’s odds might be 8-5 and another horse is 9-5.
2. It’s ridden by a weak jockey. Someone who wins under 10% of his rides.
3. The jockey has “2nd-itis.” He might have ridden 150 times, had 10 winners and 18 or more places. Rule of thumb? One third more 2nd’s than wins, disqualifies the jock(and horse!) as a possible WIN bet.
4. It’s a 1st time starter from a leading trainer, who’s weak in the category. Especially with a 2 year old.
5. A first time 2 y.o. starting from the rail. Worst are dashes less than 5 furlongs.
6. There are 3 or more first timers in the race.
7. 2nd time starter, ran in the $ or close last time, but its speed fig (Beyer) is well below par for the class.
8. 2nd timer, “Off slowly” then made up a lot of ground. They tend to have gate trouble again.
9. Poor form and switches from grass to dirt. Especially with European horses entered in their first N. American race of a mile or less.
10. European horses, fresh off the plane win their first here on grass, and today is their 2nd N. American grass start. Called the “Euro Bounce.”
11. Multi-switches today. Switches track, surface, distance, jockey, class, weather, etc. The more new things that horses have to try at once, the worse they do.
12. Horse coming off a career best speed fig last time. Especially if the last was 7 or more pts. higher.
Even more so if it is back in less than 3 weeks. It figures to need time to recuperate.
13. Horse had a bad trip last time. Especially prone to repeat bad trips are deep closers. Worst are deep closers with weak jockeys.
14. Horse only wins wire-to-wire and 2 or more speed horses are inside it today.
15. Outside post when race starts very near the first turn. Speed horses out there are especially vulnerable unless there are ZERO other speed horses inside.
16. Jocks who are very weak finishers and can’t keep a speed horse going in late scratch. Ones mentioned earlier with 2nd-itis are especially prone to lose stretch duels with speed horses.
17. Good horse in the mud with a bad or frightened wet track jockey.
18. A negative class dropper. Meaning it ran well last out, finishing no worse than a close 4th, not beaten more than 4-5 lengths, in a class it’s proved it can handle. Today for no apparent reason, the horse is dropping in class. BEWARE: many barns don’t want to winter a horse for 3-6 months and drop them one class as the meet winds down.

Finally, there is a huge difference between a good horse and a good bet. If you must play a “Bad” fave, insist on 3-1 odds. If its odds are less than that, play exactas only.


mike

Hey Mike,

Appreciate the list, and we agree on many of things on your list, the thing is, I dont look for these horses, Valuecapper gives them to me. It is not necessarily looking for a vulnerable favorite, there is a different profile for that. What we are looking for is a race where at least the top two horse on the VALUECAPPER line have some sort of antivalue, often one of those two is the favorite but not always, sometimes it may be that the first four or five horses on the line have antivalue, we bet the first horse down the line WITHOUT antivalue, provided that there are #1) That all the horses above it have antivalue, #2) that there are at least two antivalue horses above it, and #3) our horse needs to fall in the "arc" which means our odds need to have the horse with at least a random chance to win (7-1 in an 8 horse field, 11-1 in a 12 horse field and so on).

Since layoffs is such a big part of the antivalue equasion, I asked myself long ago, what type of races do horse run well in off layoffs (45day or more). The obvious answer is Stakes races, what was not quite so obvious to me but does make sense is Alw/OptClm races and MSW races. So essentially this leaves us with just claimers both maiden claimers and any other claiming race. Heres what happens with our June 1- August 31 sample when we eliminate these races (attached)

[lefty359]

Hey,Matt, great stuff. Knowing what to eliminate is mos valuable.
Thanks.

[Kbatch57]

Hey Mike,

Appreciate the list, and we agree on many of things on your list, the thing is, I dont look for these horses, Valuecapper gives them to me. It is not necessarily looking for a vulnerable favorite, there is a different profile for that. What we are looking for is a race where at least the top two horse on the VALUECAPPER line have some sort of antivalue, often one of those two is the favorite but not always, sometimes it may be that the first four or five horses on the line have antivalue, we bet the first horse down the line WITHOUT antivalue, provided that there are #1) That all the horses above it have antivalue, #2) that there are at least two antivalue horses above it, and #3) our horse needs to fall in the "arc" which means our odds need to have the horse with at least a random chance to win (7-1 in an 8 horse field, 11-1 in a 12 horse field and so on).

Since layoffs is such a big part of the antivalue equasion, I asked myself long ago, what type of races do horse run well in off layoffs (45day or more). The obvious answer is Stakes races, what was not quite so obvious to me but does make sense is Alw/OptClm races and MSW races. So essentially this leaves us with just claimers both maiden claimers and any other claiming race. Heres what happens with our June 1- August 31 sample when we eliminate these races (attached)
Hi Matt,

Total Net of $932 over a 3 month period minus the cost of Data $372 equals a true total net of $560 which averages out being a net profit of $187 per month (So far).

In order to improve on the net income you either have to increase the hit rate to at least 15% or higher and/or increase your base wager considerably.

Depending on the Track, increasing your wager could impact the odds on your Horse.

So, you would need to find out what is the maximum bet size that you can make in the Win pool at each Track before you start impacting the odds.

Even though the AVC Portfolio has shown a profit so far in your testing, it is not a Portfolio that you are going to get rich from (at least out of the box).. Maybe with some further fine tuning and tweaking the hit rate and net profit can be increased enough to make it worthwhile using this Portfolio.

For myself, I would not be happy with a net profit of $187 per month, especially if I intended on using ValueCapper as a means of generating a supplemental income. Granted any profit is better than being in the red!

For someone that considers playing the Horses a hobby and is happy generating a small profit as well, than the AVC Portfolio may be just what they are looking for. :)

Thanks.

[mhaney0423]

Hi Matt,

Total Net of $932 over a 3 month period minus the cost of Data $372 equals a true total net of $560 which averages out being a net profit of $187 per month (So far).

In order to improve on the net income you either have to increase the hit rate to at least 15% or higher and/or increase your base wager considerably.

Depending on the Track, increasing your wager could impact the odds on your Horse.

So, you would need to find out what is the maximum bet size that you can make in the Win pool at each Track before you start impacting the odds.

Even though the AVC Portfolio has shown a profit so far in your testing, it is not a Portfolio that you are going to get rich from (at least out of the box).. Maybe with some further fine tuning and tweaking the hit rate and net profit can be increased enough to make it worthwhile using this Portfolio.

For myself, I would not be happy with a net profit of $187 per month, especially if I intended on using ValueCapper as a means of generating a supplemental income. Granted any profit is better than being in the red!

For someone that considers playing the Horses a hobby and is happy generating a small profit as well, than the AVC Portfolio may be just what they are looking for. :)

Thanks.

Hey Kbatch,

Appreciate your comments and you are correct, this is not a get rich quick scheme. For me this is just a hobby and I am perfectly happy to pay for my data and maybe buy a bottle of boubon and a dinner each month. Matter of fact I would say you would be hard pressed to show me one person who generates a "supplemental income" from win betting alone.

One must remember, this is one of my hobbies, along with drinking bourbon, playing guitar, smoking meat/cooking, watching football, and working out. Plus I still work 40 hours a week, have a 17YO daughter to run around and serve as her roadie/sound guy for her shows. So I dont have time to even watch too many races, more or less, break a race down, and watch the odds board and structure bets. I place all my bets at noon eastern conditionally and I may look at results once or twice a day.

AVC is just one of the portfolios I use, it is not necessarily the most profitable, but in my 3 years with Valuecapper it is the most consistent. At any rate, I think like you said its all a matter of what you are trying to achieve in this game. I will say that a lot of the guys who play this game as a career or as a supplemental income almost always end up selling books or software or picks to supplement their supplemental income. What does that tell you? As for me, if I had to depend on betting horses for any type of income, it would take the enjoyment out of it for me.

Best,

Matt

[geroge.burns99]

Matt...

Did you know those results as you were betting or just recently figure betting Claimers is most profitable?

[mhaney0423]

Matt...

Did you know those results as you were betting or just recently figure betting Claimers is most profitable?

I knew claimers were most profitable when I started this thread, hence why I said that by using a little common sense and looking at PPs one could make it more profitable. I dont often post things that I dont already know the answer to on here, too many people waiting in the wings to show you that you are wrong:lol::lol:

I honestly just didn't want to do all the research for other VCP users, of which there are plenty on here

I will tell you though, I didnt figure this out by not betting them lol

[jp320]

I think a good bottle of single malt would be good
Cheers

[geroge.burns99]

We have something similar to your AVC horses called NEGS in HTR.
I'm sure the is some sort of similarities between them.

The chart below shows the ROI and win % for horses via number of negative's.

PIX #1 shows ALL Horses

Looking at that , you say ahhhh...horses with more than 2 NEG's are quite a few and maybe the gems will be there


PIX #2

ALL horses going off 2-1 and less....

Selections not to many for a years worth of data


bottom line , the favorites will still win the race
Mike

[mhaney0423]

We have something similar to your AVC horses called NEGS in HTR.
I'm sure the is some sort of similarities between them.

The chart below shows the ROI and win % for horses via number of negative's.

PIX #1 shows ALL Horses

Looking at that , you say ahhhh...horses with more than 2 NEG's are quite a few and maybe the gems will be there


PIX #2

ALL horses going off 2-1 and less....

Selections not to many for a years worth of data


bottom line , the favorites will still win the race
Mike

Of course favorite win, unfortunately approaching 40% of the time nowadays. That doesn't mean you cannot be profitable betting against them because they also lose 60% of the time.

[thaskalos]

Well folks, I have to report it was an absolutely atrocious month for AVC horses, by far and away the worst month I have seen since I have owned Valuecapper, which dates back > 3years. I will say that fortunately I was in Hawaii August 1-8 without my laptop so I was fortunate to miss out on 12 losers totaling $240 worth of losses but I do include those losses here so as not to skew how bad it truly was, so without further adieu.......

53 BETS

2 WINNERS

WIN% = 3.77

TOTAL BET $1060

TOTAL RETURNED $346

NET RETURN -$714

ROI -67.36%

WINNERS PAID $230 and $116



So this brings our running totals since June 1st 2021 to

159 BETS

12 WINNERS

WIN% = 7.55

TOTAL BET $3180

TOTAL RETURNED $3300

NET RETURN +$120

ROI 3.77%

Still ahead but almost just spinning our wheels.

Now its almost time to tell you all what I already knew about this when I said in post #5 of this thread
To which Cato, PA, and Pandy all said I was wrong in posts 12, 13, and 14.

But before I bother to tell this, I want someone here to seriously consider what type of races could be eliminated to make the ROI on this go seriously up from 3.77% to 46.14%. Consider the name of this profile we are using is called ANTIVALUE COUNTDOWN. Antivalue is considered to be LAYOFFS, HARD LAST RACE, NEGATIVE CLASS DROP, POOR RECENT FORM, POOR LAST RACE, HARD LAST RACE, HARD RACE OFF LAYOFF, MAIDEN CLAIMING WINNER WITHOUT SUFFICIENT CLASS DROP.
Hint, LAYOFFS is key, what type of horses typically run well off layoffs? Or, a better question, which class(es) of race would one expect layoff horses to run well?

It takes a lot of integrity to publicly post an atrocious month of betting, when no one knows that it ever took place. It's during the losing months that the classy guys rise to the top. I take my hat off to you. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Mikym]

Hey Matt, this really is amazing work, and very valuable. Thanks for doing this!

[Kbatch57]

Hey Kbatch,

Appreciate your comments and you are correct, this is not a get rich quick scheme. For me this is just a hobby and I am perfectly happy to pay for my data and maybe buy a bottle of boubon and a dinner each month. Matter of fact I would say you would be hard pressed to show me one person who generates a "supplemental income" from win betting alone.

One must remember, this is one of my hobbies, along with drinking bourbon, playing guitar, smoking meat/cooking, watching football, and working out. Plus I still work 40 hours a week, have a 17YO daughter to run around and serve as her roadie/sound guy for her shows. So I dont have time to even watch too many races, more or less, break a race down, and watch the odds board and structure bets. I place all my bets at noon eastern conditionally and I may look at results once or twice a day.

AVC is just one of the portfolios I use, it is not necessarily the most profitable, but in my 3 years with Valuecapper it is the most consistent. At any rate, I think like you said its all a matter of what you are trying to achieve in this game. I will say that a lot of the guys who play this game as a career or as a supplemental income almost always end up selling books or software or picks to supplement their supplemental income. What does that tell you? As for me, if I had to depend on betting horses for any type of income, it would take the enjoyment out of it for me.

Best,

Matt
Hi Matt,

Thanks for the reply and the explanation of why you play the Horses!

From your comments, I guess I may be setting my expectations a little too high! :)

Regards.

[mhaney0423]

Hi Matt,

Thanks for the reply and the explanation of why you play the Horses!

From your comments, I guess I may be setting my expectations a little too high! :)

Regards.

I certainly did not mean to discourage, I am not saying it can't be done. I honestly think I could eek out a meager living by just playing the horses, but it would take a helluva a lot more work than Im willing to put into it. I am sure there are guys on this board that do quite well and I am 100% sure there are guys on this board who have forgotten more about handicapping than I will ever know!

Best,

M

[mhaney0423]

It takes a lot of integrity to publicly post an atrocious month of betting, when no one knows that it ever took place. It's during the losing months that the classy guys rise to the top. I take my hat off to you. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Thank you Thask, I am a glutton for punishment I guess!! Actually, I believe it is very important to show these losing months, I have always said that they happen....and they happen frequently, although I cant recall one quite this bad.

[mhaney0423]

Hello All,

Happy to report that we got back to our winning ways in September

33 BETS

3 WINNERS

WIN% = 9.09

TOTAL BET $660

TOTAL RETURNED $916

NET RETURN $256

ROI 38.79%

WINNERS PAID $296, $430, $190

This brings our season totals since June 1st to

192 BETS

15 WINNERS

WIN% = 7.81

TOTAL BET $3840

TOTAL RETURNED $4216

NET RETURN +$376

ROI 9.79%


If we eliminate everything but claiming races in Sept we lose one winner but win% and ROI are barely effected.

23 BETS

2 WINNERS

WIN% = 8.69

TOTAL BET $460

TOTAL RETURNED $620

NET RETURN $160

ROI 34.78%

WINNERS PAID $430, $190


Only Claimers for the season gives us

124 BETS

12 WINNERS

WIN% = 9.67

TOTAL BET $2480

TOTAL RETURNED $3572

NET RETURN $1092

ROI 44.03%

There are fewer and fewer of these races as we head into Fall/Winter but I will keep this going for at least a few more months

[geroge.burns99]

Thxs Matt...appreciate it....

A few more positive months will pay for the Data..........:headbanger:

[mhaney0423]

Hey Mike,

I normally am able to pay for data every month, AVC is not all I bet. Here's Sept for me from TwinSpires. Keep in mind, I place all of these bets regardless of what time they run at noon eastern, often without scratches and or weather. I do download what scratches are available about 11:30EST but I dont normally look again after that. Nothing earth shattering here, basically a 15% ROI and about an 11% win percentage which is generally in the ballpark for what I average. See attached

Tot INV Tot Ret NET ROI WIN
3990 4621 $631 15.80% 11.11%

[geroge.burns99]

Hey Mike,

I normally am able to pay for data every month, AVC is not all I bet. Here's Sept for me from TwinSpires. Keep in mind, I place all of these bets regardless of what time they run at noon eastern, often without scratches and or weather. I do download what scratches are available about 11:30EST but I dont normally look again after that. Nothing earth shattering here, basically a 15% ROI and about an 11% win percentage which is generally in the ballpark for what I average. See attached

Tot INV Tot Ret NET ROI WIN
3990 4621 $631 15.80% 11.11%

I knew your were holding out on me :lol:

thats some nice work!!!

theres a lot of people that will say a 11% win % won't get you anywhere...

Your the proff!!!

[Speed Figure]

Hey Mike,

I normally am able to pay for data every month, AVC is not all I bet. Here's Sept for me from TwinSpires. Keep in mind, I place all of these bets regardless of what time they run at noon eastern, often without scratches and or weather. I do download what scratches are available about 11:30EST but I dont normally look again after that. Nothing earth shattering here, basically a 15% ROI and about an 11% win percentage which is generally in the ballpark for what I average. See attached

Tot INV Tot Ret NET ROI WIN
3990 4621 $631 15.80% 11.11%

[mhaney0423]

[/code]

Thanks man, I have no.clue how you did that, but it looks like it did when I posted it!! Awesome !!

[lefty359]

Matt, since you place bets all at one time, what's your criteria to
be reasonably sure you will get your price?

[mhaney0423]

Matt, since you place bets all at one time, what's your criteria to
be reasonably sure you will get your price?

Really dont worry much because I bet them all conditionally, I would say on average about 50% of my bets go through. Normally Im looking for MLO of at least 6-1 and/or a higher contention line.

[lefty359]

Thanks, Matt.

[Speed Figure]

Thanks man, I have no.clue how you did that, but it looks like it did when I posted it!! Awesome !!

Hey Matt! write it out on a notepad like this. Copy and paste it with the code at the top and bottom and it should line up like this.
Pace Speed Late
86 78 83

[mhaney0423]

Hey Matt! write it out on a notepad like this. Copy and paste it with the code at the top and bottom and it should line up like this.
Pace Speed Late
86 78 83

Thanks again, I will definitely be coming back to this post often....thats a fantastic tip!!

[mhaney0423]

Hello All,

Basically spun our wheels in October blindly betting AVC but it was a winning month again

35 BETS

3 WINNERS

WIN% = 8.57

TOTAL BET $700

TOTAL RETURNED $788

NET RETURN $88

ROI 12.57%

WINNERS PAID $260, $396, $132

SEE ATTACHED FILES 1 & 2


This brings our season totals since June 1st to

227 BETS

18 WINNERS

WIN% = 7.93

TOTAL BET $4540

TOTAL RETURNED $5004

NET RETURN +$464

ROI 10.22%


If we eliminate everything but claiming races in Oct we lose one winner but the ROI goes way up

22 BETS

2 WINNERS

WIN% = 9.09

TOTAL BET $440

TOTAL RETURNED $656

NET RETURN $216

ROI 49.09%

WINNERS PAID $260, $396

SEE ATTACHED FILE 3


Only Claimers for the season gives us

146 BETS

14 WINNERS

WIN% = 9.59

TOTAL BET $2920

TOTAL RETURNED $4228

NET RETURN $1308

ROI 44.79%

This above is a full 5 months of data, hopefully this proves my point by now to all the naysayers. It is quite possible to be profitable with this software even without thinking, if you use your brain a bit and keep good records and analyze those results a bit over time you can be very profitable. I dont believe I would try to handicap as a source of income, but it can be quite fun and you can make a few bucks with some consistency. I sincerely want to thank Michael Pizzolla for this software and mostly for taking the time to show me how to use it while still having the patience to let me have my own style, regardless of how stupid it probably seems to him at the time.

Last but not least, for Mike, simply because I don't want him to worry that I only made $88 last month, I include an excel with all of my bets for October

SEE ATTACHED FILES 4 & 5

Probably going to stop posting this for a while, with the holidays coming up I will be quite busy. Maybe Ill give an update sometime next year, but based on several years of past records, everything should keep rolling right along how it has been in this thread.

[geroge.burns99]

thanks matt...and GL in your future endeavors...

mike