JustMissed
12-01-2004, 03:39 PM
I thought this race was a pretty good example of finding some value where none appears.
The 4 over 8 was the only play.
With $7 exacta, that bet was out as well as the w/p/s.
Race carded for eight but with one scratch, the 4/8/ALL had some promise.
I don't know of anyway to calculate expected tri payoffs, but 3 of the 5 other runners had off odds greater than 24 to 1.
Not exactly a "chicken dinner" play but with the tri paying $54.50 for a $10 ticket, 4 to 1 plus change isn't too bad for a seven horse field.
JM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8th Race - Mountaineer Park - Tuesday, November 30th, 2004
Conditions: 6F Dirt. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 121 lbs. Non-winners of a race since October 30 Allowed 3 lbs. A race since September 30 Allowed 6 lbs. Claiming Price $15,000, For Each $1,000 To $13,000 2 lbs.
Value of Race: $16,800 1st $9,912 2nd $3,360 3rd $1,680 4th $840 5th $504 6th $336 7th $168 Mutuel Pool: $30,503
# Horse A/S M/E Wgt PP St 1/4 1/2 Str Fin Jockey Odds
4 Chocotini 3 F BL b 113 3 1 15 17 17 17 3/4 Pereira Oswald M. 1.50
8 Heather's Lady 3 F BLA 113 7 2 22 25 22 23/4 Whitney Dana G. *1.00
1 Native Zeal 3 F BL b 113 1 4 33 34 32 32 Martinez, Jr. Luis J. 24.90
6 Easter Buddy 4 F BL 111 5 3 4hd 56 4hd 41 1/4 Rivera, Jr. Jose Luis 25.50
7 Kalen 4 F BLA f 113 6 7 51 4hd 59 57 1/2 Hannigan Lyndon 7.80
5 Fat Harry's Girl 3 F BL b 116 4 5 7 7 7 6hd Perez, Jr. John A. 7.40
3 Exploded Silence 3 F BL 115 2 6 63 64 61 7 McFadden David J. 38.00
Off Time: 1:00 Start: 7 went. Good for all but 7. Track: Muddy Weather: Showery 48o
Fractions: :22, :452, :583, 1:123 (:22.03, :45.46, :58.62, 1:12.75)
# Horse Win Place Show
4 Chocotini 5.00 2.20 2.20
8 Heather's Lady 2.20 2.20
1 Native Zeal 4.40
Pedigree: 4 - Chocotini, Dark Bay or Brown Filly, 3, by Level Sands - Fauffy by Creole Dancer
Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $76.60 3-2-4 (3 Correct) $13,859
$2 Perfecta $7.00 4-8 $36,745
$2 Trifecta $54.80 4-8-1 $39,889
Race Summary
CHOCOTINI broke sharply to a quick lead, opened up early on the pace, maintained full control throughout winning handily. HEATHER'S LADY sent in early pursuit, chased a loose CHOCOTINI from the gate to the stretch, made no headway but was kept to task saving place. NATIVE ZEAL came away well to go evenly off a fast pace, raced the rail throughout gaining on HEATHER'S LADY in pursuit of place down the stretch, couldn't run rival down but remained willing to wire. EASTER BUDDY outrun early, varied little off the pace through the turn, was pinned inside by KALEN as the pair moved in close to the wire. KALEN stumbled badly at the break, was well back through the turn, herded EASTER BUDDY through the stretch. FAT HARRY'S GIRL was always outrun. EXPLODED SILENCE offered little.
Owners: 4 - Tim Schuh; 8 - Bernard, L. Barrett and Bowman, Gary; 1 - Kathleen McIsaac; 6 - Frances L. Ubbink; 7 - Bruno Schickedanz; 5 - Harry Tyler; 3 - Bill Woodall
Trainers: 4 - Tim Schuh; 8 - Stephen R. Margolis; 1 - Pedro Martinez; 6 - Robert A. Ubbink; 7 - Jeffrey A. Radosevich; 5 - Bart Baird; 3 - Michael J. Berry
Breeders: 4 - Paul Van Doren & Andrena Van Doren (KY); 8 - Hilbert Thoroughbreds, Inc. (KY); 1 - RedBob Farms Inc. (MI); 6 - Frances Ubbink (NY); 7 - Darrel Clark (KY); 5 - Janis Maitlen (FL); 3 - Don Blackwood (KY)
Claimed: Heather's Lady by Tony Sedillo (Paula S. Capestro)
Scratched: A Bag On Top
The 4 over 8 was the only play.
With $7 exacta, that bet was out as well as the w/p/s.
Race carded for eight but with one scratch, the 4/8/ALL had some promise.
I don't know of anyway to calculate expected tri payoffs, but 3 of the 5 other runners had off odds greater than 24 to 1.
Not exactly a "chicken dinner" play but with the tri paying $54.50 for a $10 ticket, 4 to 1 plus change isn't too bad for a seven horse field.
JM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8th Race - Mountaineer Park - Tuesday, November 30th, 2004
Conditions: 6F Dirt. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 121 lbs. Non-winners of a race since October 30 Allowed 3 lbs. A race since September 30 Allowed 6 lbs. Claiming Price $15,000, For Each $1,000 To $13,000 2 lbs.
Value of Race: $16,800 1st $9,912 2nd $3,360 3rd $1,680 4th $840 5th $504 6th $336 7th $168 Mutuel Pool: $30,503
# Horse A/S M/E Wgt PP St 1/4 1/2 Str Fin Jockey Odds
4 Chocotini 3 F BL b 113 3 1 15 17 17 17 3/4 Pereira Oswald M. 1.50
8 Heather's Lady 3 F BLA 113 7 2 22 25 22 23/4 Whitney Dana G. *1.00
1 Native Zeal 3 F BL b 113 1 4 33 34 32 32 Martinez, Jr. Luis J. 24.90
6 Easter Buddy 4 F BL 111 5 3 4hd 56 4hd 41 1/4 Rivera, Jr. Jose Luis 25.50
7 Kalen 4 F BLA f 113 6 7 51 4hd 59 57 1/2 Hannigan Lyndon 7.80
5 Fat Harry's Girl 3 F BL b 116 4 5 7 7 7 6hd Perez, Jr. John A. 7.40
3 Exploded Silence 3 F BL 115 2 6 63 64 61 7 McFadden David J. 38.00
Off Time: 1:00 Start: 7 went. Good for all but 7. Track: Muddy Weather: Showery 48o
Fractions: :22, :452, :583, 1:123 (:22.03, :45.46, :58.62, 1:12.75)
# Horse Win Place Show
4 Chocotini 5.00 2.20 2.20
8 Heather's Lady 2.20 2.20
1 Native Zeal 4.40
Pedigree: 4 - Chocotini, Dark Bay or Brown Filly, 3, by Level Sands - Fauffy by Creole Dancer
Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $76.60 3-2-4 (3 Correct) $13,859
$2 Perfecta $7.00 4-8 $36,745
$2 Trifecta $54.80 4-8-1 $39,889
Race Summary
CHOCOTINI broke sharply to a quick lead, opened up early on the pace, maintained full control throughout winning handily. HEATHER'S LADY sent in early pursuit, chased a loose CHOCOTINI from the gate to the stretch, made no headway but was kept to task saving place. NATIVE ZEAL came away well to go evenly off a fast pace, raced the rail throughout gaining on HEATHER'S LADY in pursuit of place down the stretch, couldn't run rival down but remained willing to wire. EASTER BUDDY outrun early, varied little off the pace through the turn, was pinned inside by KALEN as the pair moved in close to the wire. KALEN stumbled badly at the break, was well back through the turn, herded EASTER BUDDY through the stretch. FAT HARRY'S GIRL was always outrun. EXPLODED SILENCE offered little.
Owners: 4 - Tim Schuh; 8 - Bernard, L. Barrett and Bowman, Gary; 1 - Kathleen McIsaac; 6 - Frances L. Ubbink; 7 - Bruno Schickedanz; 5 - Harry Tyler; 3 - Bill Woodall
Trainers: 4 - Tim Schuh; 8 - Stephen R. Margolis; 1 - Pedro Martinez; 6 - Robert A. Ubbink; 7 - Jeffrey A. Radosevich; 5 - Bart Baird; 3 - Michael J. Berry
Breeders: 4 - Paul Van Doren & Andrena Van Doren (KY); 8 - Hilbert Thoroughbreds, Inc. (KY); 1 - RedBob Farms Inc. (MI); 6 - Frances Ubbink (NY); 7 - Darrel Clark (KY); 5 - Janis Maitlen (FL); 3 - Don Blackwood (KY)
Claimed: Heather's Lady by Tony Sedillo (Paula S. Capestro)
Scratched: A Bag On Top