Testing a form cycle theory

[andicap]

these horses are eliminated today under a form cycle theory I'm testing using HTR software. Some will be longshots but some will be lower priced horses. This method works much better with older dirt horses and is not really suited that well for the turf. Jury is out on younger horses who tend to pair up or react as badly to string of better than normal good performances.

A few of these horses may actually win, but they should regress by several lengths in the process. The "iffy" ones I'm still researching.

Philly


2. 8,9, 10

3. 10 (iffy, not a top from last 10 races but a "cyclical" top.)

5. 1A -- (same as race 3.)

6. 2, 8 (8 is iffy)

8. 2,5

9 4

10, 6, 10

[andicap]

Beulah
Not as many at real cheap tracks ....

2. 5

4. 9

7, 4,8

[andicap]

Originally posted by andicap
these horses are eliminated today under a form cycle theory I'm testing using HTR software. Some will be longshots but some will be lower priced horses. This method works much better with older dirt horses and is not really suited that well for the turf. Jury is out on younger horses who tend to pair up or react as badly to string of better than normal good performances.

A few of these horses may actually win, but they should regress by several lengths in the process. The "iffy" ones I'm still researching.

Philly


2. 8,9, 10
All lost, the 9 was 9-5 out of the money while the 10 finished 2nd at 8-1.

3. 10 (iffy, not a top from last 10 races but a "cyclical" top.)
5th at 11-1.

5. 1A -- (same as race 3.) 6th at 5-1.

6. 2, 8 (8 is iffy)

2 was 4th at 6-1.
8 was 5th at even money.

8. 2,5

In a five-horse field, 2 was 2nd at 3-1
5 was third at 6-1.

9 4

4th at 11-1.

10, 6, 10
6 was 3rd at 11-1
10 was last at 24-1


Well none of them won, (but a few finished in the money) and we did eliminate two short-priced horses. So I'd called it a promising start at Philly.

[andicap]

Originally posted by andicap
Beulah
Not as many at real cheap tracks ....

2. 5

4. 9

7, 4,8

Not a track that I ever play, but a test is a test.

2. 5 horse won at 4-1.

4. 9 was 5th at 16-1.

7 4 won at 1-1.
8 was out of money longshot.

Terrible results at a very cheap track. We'll stick to the relatively better places in the future. Or stay within the letter of the theory rather than the spirit.

In the 7th, the 4's last race was so much better than the rest of the field he might have bounced bigtime and still won. Also race was weird 14 furlongs on "good" track. Remember, I'm not saying these horses will lose, only they will run appreciably worse than in recent races.

2nd race was 4.5f -- and horse wasn't perfect fit (hadn't run a lifetime best recently but best in 10 months.) And his last Cramer was 7 pts (about 2 1/2 lengths) better than anyone else and 15 pts better than the next horse. He may have ran a worse race tha his recent and still won in this crowd.

more tomorrow

[toetoe]

andi, what is a cramer? related to marc cramer? love that guy

[andicap]

jeez,I didn't think anyone actually read these posts

It's Jim Cramer who puts out speed figures for HDW a data company. they come with the HTR program.

hope to post more for thursday....