Are Horse Players Creatures of Habit?

[CamptownRaces.com]

Are Horse Players Creatures of Habit?
Author: Charles Ubil
Posted on 2001-11-11 13:20:28
for http://www.vegasoutsiders.com

Past Performance Handicappers have a number of steps that they follow before making a decision on which Horse to Wager on.

Most of these Handicappers seem to do things a very similar way each time they are confronted with the challenge of Picking the Winner. They take all of the variables into consideration and go about their procedure of Picking the Winner.

The only time their Pattern seems to change is when they need to fit their Handicapping Method into different types of Races. For instance, when Handicapping a Maiden Race their procedure is a little different than it would be when Handicapping a Claiming, or Stakes Race.

If you believe this is true as I do, then do you think if you looked at enough similar races that you would be able to start to see when the Publics' Favorite is good and when it's not?

After over 16 years of playing well over 22,000 races, I KNOW that there are Readable Wagering Patterns that the Public creates on a daily basis.

The point is that, these Handicappers Wagers, shown as a group on the board, Create Patterns that become Visible to those who choose to play--

THE OTHER WAY!

[ranchwest]

If they always do the same thing, why do you need to look at the board? You should be able to predict what they're going to do.

[CamptownRaces.com]

Please go back and re-read that post...

"Most of these Handicappers

seem to do things a

very similar way

each time they are confronted with the challenge of Picking the Winner. "

You're going to try to tell me that the "old school" handicappers are going to change their way of thinking after playing that way for 20 Years?

Some adjustments, but we are all creatures of habit!!!

After seeing the same type of races being carded with just about the same morning line structure,
and then the wagering falls into place the same way it did with those types of races,
you start to see when the fav is good or not, and who to play with it, or instead of it...

I'm not saying that this is the best thing ever!

This is just another method of handicapping...

I Handicap the Handicappers.

Handicappers as a group have past performances as well you know.

I found that people bet the same way more often than a horse runs their races over and over.

People, playing People, that are playing horses!

[ranchwest]

Go back and read my post.

I didn't say anything about anyone doing things differently. I said that if you already know they're doing the same old thing, then you should be able to predict what that same old thing is and not have to bother with waiting until you see it on the tote board.

[CamptownRaces.com]

I can't see what they're doing until they bet...

I read the Wagering Formulas that the bettors create when they wager as a group.

Otherwise, you mine as well poke a pin through the program.

I can't read minds, but I can read the odds!!

[sq764]

I don't agree that people from the old school do the same things they did 20 years ago, they would go broke.. Time have changed and with the information at everyone's fingertips, if you haven't found other 'edges', you are done..

I think 20 years ago if you could calculate a raw fraction or make pace figures, you were golden, now you can find both on the internet in a second.


Scott

[GameTheory]

This is an interesting question. While the methods handicappers use to make picks certainly have changed, does that mean the odds patterns created on the tote board have changed also? I don't know, but my feeling is probably not -- at least not due to a change in the style of handicapping.

Simulcasting, and the ability for ANYBODY (that cares to) to bet at the last second may have altered the patterns a bit, though, or at least the payoffs...

[CamptownRaces.com]

Of course the old school cappers have adapted... My point was that most of them won't even look at what I do. They just think of playing the odds as number voodoo. They are set in their ways and beliefs. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that either. If we all agreed and thought the same way about everything, the world would be a boring place. I have documented the pre-race odds (10 minutes to 3 minutes) of over 25,000 races in the last 16+ years. I was playing the odds when the flashes were 90 seconds apart instead of 60 seconds like it has been for what seems to be forever. I have east coast tracks, west coast tracks, Canadian tracks, and about 50+ races from Hong Kong. I have found the wagering patterns that repeat most often and have developed wagering formulas that are easy to use to go with the Patterns. I just have to identify the wagering pattern and put the formula to work. The whole process of selecting the horses and putting the wager together takes less than two minutes. This is after you've copied in the 3 minute odds. Yeah, I know that doesn't leave you much time, but you tell me when the last time you saw a race go off right at the 0 minutes to post mark. It usually takes another 1 to 3 minutes to get them loaded and running. I have been shut out before, but it doesn't happen very often at all.

[Rick]

Charles,

Do you find that these patterns are any better or worse at tracks with large or small parimutuel pools? I had some good success playing toteboard methods at Northern California tracks about 15 years ago but haven't checked it lately. The same methods at Portland Meadows were worthless, and in Southern California they were profitable but less so.

[CamptownRaces.com]

I was at Bay Meadows every day for the '87 meet!

Yeah, I've found that places like Hollywood Park and sometimes Santa Anita can be real tough.

There's just too much money which makes it real hard to read the changes when most are very slight drops.

Other tracks that are too small make it too hard to read because EVERY Horse in the race is getting slammed from 25-1 down to 8 or 9 to 1. That usually only takes a $50.00 win bet at those smaller tracks.

I really like the east coast...

I live in the far northwest corner of the US and prefer to play east coast tracks...

Philadelphia & Aqueduct have been VERY GOOD to me this season. Two years ago playing AQU I had the BEST Day Ever! I hit 8 out of 9 exotic wagers for a HUGE Profit. That hasn't happened again I'm very sorry to say, but I still do real well at Phily & AQU.

Bay Meadows, Golden Gate, & Woodbine are a few others that I used to play quite often.

[JustRalph]

I notice that the S. Cal handicappers are a sharper bunch. They let very few winners go off long. They just seem to be a better crowd of handicappers than say Mountaineer or some resort type track. Do you think the S.Cal handicapper has changed over the years.....or have they been pretty sharp all along. It is for this reason that I rarely play S. Cal. They seem to be a tougher crowd to beat.

[CamptownRaces.com]

Originally posted by JustRalph
I notice that the S. Cal handicappers are a sharper bunch. They let very few winners go off long. They just seem to be a better crowd of handicappers than say Mountaineer or some resort type track. Do you think the S.Cal handicapper has changed over the years.....or have they been pretty sharp all along. It is for this reason that I rarely play S. Cal. They seem to be a tougher crowd to beat.

Every track is unbeatable if you try and play every race, everyday.

But Yes, you're right...

Santa Anita & Hollywood park are much harder to make a profit than other tracks.

The people are somewhat readable, it's the payoffs that suck.

Too many have the same combination.

Still, at just about every track you can make money if you cherry pick. It's knowing which races not to play that saves me the most money. (I don't lose it on chance bets)

The crowd in So. Cal has been that way for as long as I can remember.

Charles

[Derek2U]

I dont think California players are sharper/smarter/more clever
than any other players.

Do favorites, in California, win more than 1/3rd?

I think 2 trends in California make it seem that they are "better"
handicappers: (1) the track surfaces are mainly fast, day in,
day out, making more variation in times attributable to horse
class and not track variant; (2) California field size is smaller
than many, many other tracks, making it easier to pick winners,
at shorter prices.

[CamptownRaces.com]

Good point!!

It's still harder there than most places to make money for me though..

[karlskorner]

Charles Ubil
Camptownraces.co,

Your statement:

Every track is unbeatable if you try and play every race everyday.

Sort of falls in with another axiom

You can beat a race, but you can't beat the races.

I find many "authors" making statements as above and all of a sudden they become "truths"

The fact that you spent 16 years playing 22,000 races and documented 25,000, but only spent one full season in 1987 at Bay Meadows, implies to me that you spent most of your time wagering on horseracing either at home or at an off-track establisment and if so, your circle of "friends/acquaintances" is probably limited to 100-200 players from which your garner this statement, or you "read" it somewhere.

If this is so, than your knowledge about what other horse players do has to be somewhat limited.

Karl

[anotherdave]

Last year I made about 5% on my money at my local track. Not great, but better than the other option. I played almost every race at my local track. Now if I would have cut back on the number of plays, I might have made more - who knows. But I felt I had an overlay in almost all of the plays. I didn't regret many of the bets after the fact. I usually bet to win, but when there was no good win overlay, I would look at exactas or place. I am trying to be more selective this year, but I still end up betting more races than "the experts" suggest.

I firmly believe there are no absolutes. When I was 18 I bet at a tiny track that had a 24% win take. I bet 20wp every race for the 25 day meet. I made $3000. I still don't know how I did it. I had no losing days. I wish I could do that again. I wouldn't have believed it was possible if I hadn't lived it. Theoretically, I should have went broke. Camptown uses the toteboard to make his selections and that is not what I am interested in, but I have no reason to doubt his methods. He uses them and if they work, great! As karlskorner said all the little sayings that people read need to be evaluated a little further. I am sure there are people betting every race making (and losing) money. And I am sure there are people picking there spots losing (and making) money too. Probably more making money who are selective, who knows. I think everyone has to choose a style that fits them and stick with it. Just because everyone drinks Coke and I like Royal Crown Cola doesn't make me wrong. I need some statistical support to justify my plays. When I went through my results from last 2 years and looked at the actual odds compared to my odds line on my top 3 horses, I had a true decent overlay 80% of the races, so I usually play them. Why not? Anyone that is making a consistent profit at this game is doing well and shouldn't mess too much with it no matter what the experts say.

AD

[CamptownRaces.com]

Originally posted by karlskorner
Charles Ubil
Camptownraces.co,

The fact that you spent 16 years playing 22,000 races and documented 25,000, but only spent one full season in 1987 at Bay Meadows, implies to me that you spent most of your time wagering on horseracing either at home or at an off-track establisment and if so, your circle of "friends/acquaintances" is probably limited to 100-200 players from which your garner this statement, or you "read" it somewhere.

If this is so, than your knowledge about what other horse players do has to be somewhat limited.

Karl

This is where you're mistaken...

I was a truck driver for many years and stopped at just about every track that I passed.

I have played live with horse players from all across the US and Canada.

We all do things our own way... Some are better than others...

We all just have to do what works for us...

But to say my knowledge of what horse players are doing as far as betting isn't a true statement... In fact, I probably talk with more bettors online (Everyday) than you do when you go to the races.

Charles

[CamptownRaces.com]

Originally posted by RayGordon
Okay, so there are patterns. We know this.

Why not give an example of a profitable wagering pattern then?

Somewhere on the board I did post an example of one of my favorite wagering formulas... The "How, When, and Why" was all laid out...

If you don't find it on the board, go to http://www.vegasoutsiders.com click on Charles Ubil... Go to articles... and you will find it in there...

I used to have 10 example races on my website, but I just took the site down to next to nothing in size.

Let me know if you can't find it... I have it in my files somewhere as well... I can just email you the little article if you'd like...

Charles

[Rick]

AD,

I think the ultimate way to play would be to combine a good selection method with toteboard methods. I've won using both but have yet to combine them because I'm just having too good a time doing other things to spend all my time devoted to horse racing. My hedonistic nature requires that I divide my time between that and other things that I love doing. Enjoy!

[Rick]

Ray,

Congratulations. I think that really is the path to maximum profits.