Presidential Election Prediction Model

[highnote]

I'm copying this from the Open Topic since it deals
with handicapping and model making.

Not sure if this post belongs in this section or the Horse Racing
section -- since many refer to the presidential race as a horse
race. PA can move it he wants.

I read about this model in a book called "Spread Betting to Win"
by Jacques Black. It was published in the U.K. several years ago.

In the book he presents a model called "The Fisk Model". He
modified it a bit and it clearly picked Bush. Thought you might
find it interesting.

Dem Rep Either
43 29 base figure
20 candidate is incumbent
-5 party in power for 8 years or more
5 party spending most money
10 USA in all out war
10 USA in limited war
-5 major scandal involving candidate
MAJOR ISSUES:
-10 10 foreign policy
10 -10 domestic policy
10 economy in recession
20 economy in depression
10 southern candidate
-10 Major party split or 3rd party candidate



Kerry Bush
43 29
20 candidate is incumbent
5 party spending most money (DEMS right?)
10 USA in all out war
-5 major scandal involving candidate (maybe this should only be -2.5 for WMD or Abu Gharaib, military record
(militarily the same case can be made against Kerry's record)
-10 10 foreign policy
10 -10 domestic policy (foreign and domestic were a wash IMO)
10 economy in recession (maybe a 5 would be better. not quite a recession)
10 southern candidate
---------
58 64
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See how easy it is.

The major scandal factor should probably only be -2.5 rather than -5. It seemed that more Democrats were upset by Bush "scandals" than the
Republicans. So it probably didn't hurt his re-election chances too much.
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