Favorites on the Turf

[balarat]

Everyone knows that winning favorites average about 33% year in and year out. Does anybody know what winning percentage of favorites win in turf races ?

[formula_2002]

A post by BUDDHA, gets an advertisement "Learn Buddhism"

[Lucky Maria]

I would assume post time favorites would win a similar percentage in any kind of race over time. [i could be wrong, I probably am and I'm very confident someone will correct me]

However, as an interesting aside, several years ago I found that the morning line favorite in grass routes showed a flat bet profit over the course of several seasons at several tracks. I believe I ended up with approximately 1100 runners by the end and the win % hovered around 30% with a flat profit in the vicinity of 10%.

Maria

[BillW]

balarat,

Here's what I have. Data is across most NA tracks for the last few years.

# Fav. W-W. Ave. Ave. Win % by Odds Range
Type Races Wins Wins Odds Purse <2:1 2-5 5-10 10-20 >20:1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All 9758 33% 17% 6.11 $ 41852 24% 40% 21% 10% 5%
Fast Track 8968 33% 17% 6.06 $ 39395 25% 40% 20% 10% 5%
Off Track 790 28% 15% 6.74 $ 69743 21% 36% 26% 13% 5%
Turf-Fast 8968 33% 17% 6.06 $ 39395 25% 40% 20% 10% 5%
Turf-Off 790 28% 15% 6.74 $ 69743 21% 36% 26% 13% 5%
Turf Routes 7223 32% 14% 6.08 $ 46532 24% 40% 21% 10% 5%
Turf Sprints 2535 34% 25% 6.21 $ 28517 26% 40% 19% 11% 5%
Males 5528 32% 17% 6.19 $ 43029 23% 41% 21% 10% 5%
Females 4230 34% 17% 6.02 $ 40314 26% 38% 21% 10% 5%
2 YO 453 36% 16% 6.26 $ 40561 29% 34% 20% 12% 6%
3 YO 1079 32% 15% 6.22 $ 53931 26% 36% 21% 12% 5%
3 YO & up 6098 33% 18% 6.15 $ 42241 24% 40% 21% 10% 5%
4 YO & up 2128 33% 14% 5.92 $ 34890 23% 41% 21% 11% 4%
Gr. Stk 373 31% 13% 6.00 $266890 26% 39% 20% 11% 5%
non-Gr Stk 749 34% 16% 5.70 $ 78559 28% 38% 20% 10% 5%
Alw 2765 33% 17% 5.82 $ 35818 26% 38% 22% 10% 4%
Opt. Clm 516 34% 17% 5.03 $ 37414 26% 43% 21% 8% 3%
St Alw 462 36% 18% 5.88 $ 17245 32% 39% 15% 10% 5%
Claiming 2819 31% 18% 6.36 $ 23224 20% 42% 22% 11% 5%
MSW 1626 35% 15% 6.50 $ 32149 25% 38% 20% 10% 6%
MdnClm 448 32% 16% 7.22 $ 13287 23% 40% 19% 10% 8%


BY Distance:

# Fav. W-W. Ave. Ave. Win % by Odds Range
Type Races Wins Wins Odds Purse <2:1 2-5 5-10 10-20 >20:1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.5f (T) 29 34% 48% 4.83 $ 15234 34% 38% 14% 7% 7%
5f (T) 970 35% 29% 6.36 $ 22695 28% 38% 18% 11% 6%
5.5f (T) 485 33% 29% 5.42 $ 31662 24% 45% 19% 9% 4%
6f (T) 80 32% 24% 5.11 $ 60591 25% 38% 25% 11% 1%
6.5f (T) 234 37% 19% 6.44 $ 55199 24% 38% 21% 11% 6%
7f (T) 163 36% 20% 8.30 $ 42211 21% 35% 23% 12% 9%
7.5f (T) 574 31% 17% 6.15 $ 17134 24% 41% 19% 11% 5%
Mile (T) 2758 33% 15% 5.98 $ 38782 24% 41% 21% 10% 5%
1M 70 (T) 144 34% 19% 7.70 $ 17138 21% 40% 21% 10% 9%
1M 1/16 (T) 2770 32% 14% 6.05 $ 34159 24% 40% 22% 11% 5%
1M 1/8 (T) 956 31% 12% 6.46 $ 63090 24% 37% 24% 11% 5%
1M 3/16 (T) 52 33% 15% 5.55 $113096 19% 46% 27% 4% 4%
1M 1/4 (T) 168 32% 13% 6.13 $143309 26% 39% 18% 14% 4%
1M 3/8 (T) 148 34% 15% 5.35 $ 89972 29% 41% 13% 14% 3%
1M 1/2 (T) 153 35% 9% 5.86 $163054 31% 32% 22% 10% 6%
1M 5/8 (T) 1 0% 0% 8.40 $ 65000 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
1M 3/4 (T) 4 25% 0% 7.27 $175750 0% 50% 0% 50% 0%
1M 7/8 (T) 13 38% 8% 4.28 $ 25462 23% 54% 15% 8% 0%


Bill

[Turfday]

no message

[BillW]

Originally posted by Turfday
no message

My own database

[balarat]

Bill W,

thanks so much for the info. you have answered my question.
balarat

[Valuist]

Bill-

Do you have a percentage for winning favorites in Maiden Claiming races on the main track?

[BillW]

Originally posted by Valuist
Bill-

Do you have a percentage for winning favorites in Maiden Claiming races on the main track?

Sure ...

# Fav. W-W. Ave. Ave. Win % by Odds Range
Type Races Wins Wins Odds Purse <2:1 2-5 5-10 10-20 >20:1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All 15674 36% 30% 5.57 $ 11888 31% 38% 18% 9% 5%
Fast Track 13636 36% 29% 5.58 $ 11967 32% 37% 18% 9% 5%
Off Track 2038 35% 31% 5.52 $ 11356 29% 40% 18% 9% 5%
Dirt-Fast 13636 36% 29% 5.58 $ 11967 32% 37% 18% 9% 5%
Dirt-Off 2038 35% 31% 5.52 $ 11356 29% 40% 18% 9% 5%
Dirt Routes 3925 35% 20% 5.41 $ 11680 31% 39% 17% 8% 4%
Dirt Sprints 11749 37% 33% 5.63 $ 11957 31% 37% 18% 9% 5%
Males 8283 36% 29% 5.52 $ 11960 31% 38% 18% 8% 5%
Females 7391 36% 30% 5.63 $ 11807 31% 37% 18% 9% 5%
2 YO 3120 36% 33% 5.62 $ 15144 31% 37% 18% 9% 5%
3 YO 2281 35% 29% 5.33 $ 11420 30% 39% 19% 9% 3%
3 YO & up 6382 37% 30% 5.54 $ 10373 32% 38% 17% 8% 5%
4 YO & up 3891 36% 26% 5.73 $ 12035 31% 38% 17% 9% 5%
MdnClm 15674 36% 30% 5.57 $ 11888 31% 38% 18% 9% 5%


# Fav. W-W. Ave. Ave. Win % by Odds Range
Type Races Wins Wins Odds Purse <2:1 2-5 5-10 10-20 >20:1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2f 7 43% 100% 2.33 $ 15429 43% 57% 0% 0% 0%
3f 3 67% 100% 1.70 $ 16000 67% 33% 0% 0% 0%
3.5f 16 31% 56% 3.89 $ 11319 25% 50% 19% 6% 0%
4f 155 41% 52% 5.44 $ 8375 43% 28% 15% 8% 6%
4.5f 407 40% 52% 4.99 $ 11784 36% 33% 19% 7% 5%
5f 981 37% 43% 5.00 $ 13460 33% 37% 17% 9% 3%
5.5f 2455 38% 34% 5.58 $ 10365 34% 35% 17% 9% 5%
6f 5319 36% 31% 5.64 $ 11745 30% 38% 18% 9% 5%
6.5f 1190 35% 26% 5.91 $ 12802 28% 38% 21% 9% 5%
7f 1171 35% 23% 6.26 $ 14632 27% 38% 19% 10% 6%
7.5f 45 42% 18% 4.66 $ 12450 38% 44% 7% 7% 4%
Mile 1632 37% 21% 5.16 $ 10591 33% 39% 17% 8% 4%
1M 40 19 21% 32% 4.13 $ 10347 26% 47% 21% 5% 0%
1M 70 746 36% 21% 5.31 $ 8979 32% 38% 18% 9% 4%
1M 1/16 1421 33% 19% 5.82 $ 14183 29% 41% 17% 8% 5%
1M 1/8 104 38% 21% 4.89 $ 13816 31% 43% 15% 8% 3%
1M 1/4 2 50% 0% 2.48 $ 24650 50% 50% 0% 0% 0%
1M 3/8 1 0% 0% 5.20 $ 23000 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%


Bill

[gillenr]

What does ave. odds mean? It looks like payoff, but it seems too high.
Thanks

[BillW]

Originally posted by gillenr
What does ave. odds mean? It looks like payoff, but it seems too high.
Thanks

That's simply the odds:1 average for the winner of each race in that category.

By your comment "Seems too high" - the misunderstanding may come from you thinking that is for the favorite only. In fact it is for all races. Note that I did not build this report in response to the question in this thread, but rather had the tool laying around. It generates a lot of irrelevant data (to the original question) that I was just too lazy to edit out. :)

Bill

[gillenr]

Thanks, that clears up my confusion.

[gillenr]

My friends & I have a guess that HAW's spring meet has produced much lower odds than this. Are we correct? Currently favs are 41% winners.
Thanks.

[Valuist]

Gillen-

I think a lot of the 41% can be attributed to the small fields. Before the FG closed, there was quite a few 5 and 6 horse fields. I was beginning to think it was Southern California or Maryland.

[BMeadow]

From a survey of 200,000 post-time favorites that was published in the April 2003 Meadow's Racing Monthly:

All favorites: 33.6% with an ROI of 0.82 (200,000 races)

Turf sprints: 32.6% wins with an ROI of 0.83
Turf routes: 31.2% wins with an ROI of 0.80

Maiden claiming dirt: 34.4% wins with an ROI of 0.83 (31,531 races)

The biggest factor in determining the percentage of winning favorites is field size, not race type, surface, or anything else (even though maidens and maiden claimers have slightly higher win percentages compared with open claimers due to the mismatches inherent in these races):

4-horse fields (1,596 races): 46.7% wins with an ROI of 0.83
12-horse fields (10,550 races): 28.6% wins with an ROI of 0.80