I Love Aqueduct!!!!

[OTM Al]

I know a lot of players here avoid Aqueduct like the plague, but it has always been my best track. Just felt the need to crow about it a bit but today there was one of my best ever. Hit 5 straight P3s (only missed the one that started in the second), the late P4 (didn't play the early, and would have lost it if I did) and the late double. 7 out of 8 multirace wagers hit and no more than 3 horses in any leg. I'm still smilin! Throw in a couple exactas and it was a real nice day...started with $300 and came home with almost $1500. If I would have skipped the couple tris, the super and the Clark from CD I played, it would have even been nicer but no complaints from me. I know it doesn't sound like a lot to some people, but given the small amounts I usually bet, its a nice windfall. I love you Big A!!!!!

[PaceAdvantage]

WTG OTM!

[toetoe]

otm al, i envy your huge day, but don't you think you're cutting your odds way way WAY down by betting two horses in a double that you"alive to in a pick-4? i don't get it, but clue me in.

[OTM Al]

I think I understand what you are saying but tell me if I am wrong. Going into the 10th I had a live DD, P3 and P4. My selection for the 10th on all 3 tickets was 1+2. From what I understand you to be saying, you ask why I wouldn't have made that last double with something other than 1+2, maybe like 1+8 or 2+5 or something other than 1+2? Basically in the case of the 10th it was because my analysis of the PPs told me one of those 2 was going to win. They were the only true contenders that I saw. During my runs of P3s, I did make some small changes in a couple legs from ticket to ticket, but mostly as to who I was favoring as I generally buy a basically straight $5 ticket and then a couple $1 or $2 tickets with some spread. I guess I play that way because I've learned to trust my initial analysis of a race after getting burned way too many times after second guessing myself. So basically my answer is that I trust my analysis enough that once I form a plan, I stick to it and follow it through to the end. Of course it doesn't always work as I've had a few days where I got nothing for my troubles but an empty wallet, but I'd rather have that happen than chicken out again and leave another big payday on the table, which I have done more than once in the past.

[toetoe]

al, just saying if you can get 500/1 or whatever, for a successful pk-4, & more power to you, hegde or no hedge, why pile on more dough to get 8/1 or whatever it is?

[OTM Al]

Cause sometimes 8-1 is all you're going to get on the day and when 8-1 looks like its going to happen with a 95% chance and 500-1 looks like about a 3% chance I'll be like one of my favorite lady horses any day and be Riskadverse.

I must say now though that the Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away. Had I played today as I did yesterday I should have hit all 6 P3s. the late P4 and the P6 but I got arrogant after yesterday. In the 5th I left the 10 out in favor of the 4 who had good experience and 2 firsters. Dumb. I should know by now to take the experience and throw in the firster I like best as a longshot. The P3 streak died at 6 in a row, which is still a good mark. Second big mistake was cheapness. I was sure the Grocer would go home easy and left out Rockport Harbor. Looks like Sevis and Elliot have a real nice horse there. But the most ridiculous error of ommision on the day was not realizing that Lion Tamer was the only closer in the 9th in a race chock full of crazy speed. I caught it in time for the race itself and put him on top of exacta and tri, but once Kela was out of that race it is red letter law that a horse like him with that setup HAD to be included as a top choice. Oh well, still up good for the weekend because tomorrow I rest.

[toetoe]

well done, al. i thought pletcher was running l.t. @ as afterthought, tryimg to wreck pico's chances for an award. his best, strong hope, failed twice vs. p.c., then speightstown himself lost too.

[OTM Al]

I honestly believe it was an afterthought. It was just when Kela defected, the race became a perfect set-up for Lion Tamer. If you use the speed point system to gauge early speed, you would see in that race that every horse but Lion Tamer scored a six or seven and Lion Tamer had a zero. It was a clear picture of exactly what happened in that all the other horses came screaming out of the gate and he tracked them and ate them up when they burned each other out. The basic rule is that if you see 3 or more of these early types, then always make sure to include the strong closer. This race was the extreme version of that rule where all but one were early types.

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

Al,
Congrats on your winning day

Jimmy

[Suff]

I'm going down New Years Day. Its calender day and they give away a damn nice calender. Last year we had two tables in the clubhouse and about 10 of us. CJ and a couple of his family members, Myself, John and a couple of out Friends...even WINMANWIN came.. Pat was there. It was alot of fun. We're coming down again this year.

speaking of the BIG A... I wanted you guys to check out these great pictures from Yesterday.

1. Galloping Grocer

http://www.finalturngallery.com/album89/Web_GallopingGrocer_padd_dk4841

2. Did you hear Servis said that PAVO stepped on Rockport Harbor when they came out of the gate? Here's a Picture of the cut. Look on his Rear right leg at the very bottom. You'll see the blood

http://www.finalturngallery.com/album89/Web_RH_cut_dk4890


3. Rockport Harbor and Galloping Grocer at the WIRE. Nice Pic

http://www.finalturngallery.com/album89/Web_Remsen_DK4868

Entire Gallery

http://www.finalturngallery.com/album89

[Storm Cadet]

I like to meet up with you at the BIG A...give me a call before you come down...especially if you need a place to stay...love to have you at the house...come to practice...see the horse...

Ron

[Suff]

Originally posted by Storm Cadet
I like to meet up with you at the BIG A...give me a call before you come down...especially if you need a place to stay...love to have you at the house...come to practice...see the horse...

Ron

Great Invite. Thanks. Do you still own a Piece of ErinSouthernMan? Thats a Horse i'd like to meet...for sure. He's Probably going to be in Florida though ,huh?..

Maybe I'll do New years eve in Manhattan and spend a couple of Days in NYC. I'll see how the next couple of weeks shake out. You remember my friends I was with for Saratoga Opening weekend? Danny, George and Jimmy. one or two of them are supposed to come with me. They're in Ireland for two more weeks. When they get back I'll make a Plan and let you know. I'm pretty sure John and Charlie are driving down in the AM and coming back in the PM. I gotta get with John, and Charlie is in Florida ,,,so we'll see what he says when he gets back in a few weeks. We'll have a good crowd and a great time and alot of laughs.

I even mentioned to PA about joining us at Madison Square Garden for a St Johns Game. Maybe we can twist his arm into coming into the city.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's good to see Debbie Kral is still shooting awesome racing photos. Has she gone professional? I met her a few times back in the old Prodigy Horse Racing BB days. I think she was shooting pix just as a serious hobby back then, but it looks like she's turned it into a profession....

[WINMANWIN]

I will be there NEW YEARS DAY also. Unlike last year, I'm going to bed early, Its tuff capping and playing Ponies with a hangover.;)

[OTM Al]

Wish i could be there too, but have to do the family thing. Almost had my girlfriend talked into going to Santa Anita for that week, but the family guilt got the best of her....