Secretariat
03-20-2021, 12:40 AM
I've noticed something odd in the Bris Exotic Results File (the XRD file.) This may be applicable to other Bris Result Files, I haven't checked.
But I've noticed when you have a coupled entry running together it is marked in the entry field with a letter as you can see below. (I've abbreviated this a bit- First field - "entry field, horse name, folllowed by finish, odds, and then the payoffs, win, place, show)
"A", "CHATEAU",2,,,2.10,,,,,0.00, 3.70,2.50
"A", "CLENCH", 10,,2.10,,,,,0.00, 0.00,0.00
The above two horses were coupled, and Chateau was second with stable mate Clench 10th. Same odds of course. Notice Chateau's place payoff $3.70 and show payoff $2.50, but Clench's place and show payoff is zero. The problem is if you buy a ticket for one coupled horse you're generally getting the other's payoff.
The problem is Bris doesn't seem to be accounting for this in their XRD file. As a result if you have modeling software, it is not counting the payoff you'd receive on the coupled horse.
For example, say your method picks Clench as a top pick to place, and he loses, but his stablemate bails you out with a $3.70 place payoff. Your model will record a payoff of $0.00 for the race, but you really got a $3.70 payoff for the $2.00 bet.
I've contacted Bris to no avail. However, if you do model you may want to account for this or update the XRD file yourself for entries. Otherwise, your overall model may be undercounting your ROI when it comes to entries.
But I've noticed when you have a coupled entry running together it is marked in the entry field with a letter as you can see below. (I've abbreviated this a bit- First field - "entry field, horse name, folllowed by finish, odds, and then the payoffs, win, place, show)
"A", "CHATEAU",2,,,2.10,,,,,0.00, 3.70,2.50
"A", "CLENCH", 10,,2.10,,,,,0.00, 0.00,0.00
The above two horses were coupled, and Chateau was second with stable mate Clench 10th. Same odds of course. Notice Chateau's place payoff $3.70 and show payoff $2.50, but Clench's place and show payoff is zero. The problem is if you buy a ticket for one coupled horse you're generally getting the other's payoff.
The problem is Bris doesn't seem to be accounting for this in their XRD file. As a result if you have modeling software, it is not counting the payoff you'd receive on the coupled horse.
For example, say your method picks Clench as a top pick to place, and he loses, but his stablemate bails you out with a $3.70 place payoff. Your model will record a payoff of $0.00 for the race, but you really got a $3.70 payoff for the $2.00 bet.
I've contacted Bris to no avail. However, if you do model you may want to account for this or update the XRD file yourself for entries. Otherwise, your overall model may be undercounting your ROI when it comes to entries.