PDA

View Full Version : My opinions on making money off of the Ponies


CamptownRaces.com
03-24-2002, 03:09 PM
Profiting from the Ponies!

Author: Charles Ubil
Posted on 2002-02-08 10:37:44
for http://www.vegasoutsiders.com

So when do you make money when you play the ponies? Is it when you play on the longshots? Is it when you count on the Favorite? Or is it on the Exotics?

If you take a look at the actual winning percentage of the betting favorite, you'll see that the Publics first choice in the betting wins an average of 33% of the time Nation wide.

Now take a look at the other side of that coin! If the favorite wins 33% of the time that means that it doesn't win 67% of the time! Knowing when you're looking at a weak favorite can be VERY PROFITABLE!

If you like to play the Exactas & Trifectas you need to know that the betting favorite runs first or second an average of 48.73% of the time, and first, second or third a whopping 68% Nation wide!

No matter which way you like to play, knowing when you're looking at a weak or strong favorite brings your chances of winning the race up quite a bit higher! You can even make a great profit from a "2 Horse Race", or maybe I should say, two favorites that look like they're the two horses that will run away with the race! (Also called a "Chalk Exacta")

There are many times that the Public, (through their wagering on the race) show you whether or not the favorite is good!

The next trick for you is to find out who to put with the favorite, or who to play instead of the favorite!

Once you know whom you'd like to play, it becomes time to figure out how you'd like to play your selections!

Using the proper wagering formulas for the type of wager that you're looking to play is the best way to get the most BANG FOR YOUR BUCK!

Here is one of my favorite wagering formulas!
(Use the odds from 3 minutes to post to structure your wager.)

This wager is used when you have a SOLID FAVORITE!

Take a look at the next lowest horses odds. (the second favorite) Count the separation between the second favorites odds and the third favorites odds. (3rd fav - the third lowest horses odds in the betting)

If the separation is less than 5 clicks, (i.e. 3, 7/2, 4, 9/2, 5, 6 <-- each step up in odds counts as a click) than the race is not going to be a chalk race. ("Chalk Race" - the two lowest odd horses coming in first & second)

Knowing that you like the lowest odd horse, (the favorite) and that this more than likely won't be a Chalk Exacta, you simply cut the second favorite out of the exacta and key your favorite in an exacta box to the 3rd, 4th, & 5th lowest odd horses in the wagering.

This wagering formula only costs $12.00 to play on $2 tickets! It hits just over 51% of the time for a profit of better than 2 1/2 to 1...

I have even more wagering formulas like this one! This is just one of them that can be used quite often at just about any track in the US & Canada!

Good Luck,
Play Smart!

Charles

canuck
03-26-2002, 08:18 AM
Chuck--

Would you care to enlighten us as to what constitutes a solid favourite???

CamptownRaces.com
03-26-2002, 10:34 AM
Trying to generalize when a favorite is good is kind of tough. Playing off of the odds board, an Unchallenged Favorite, or "Solid Favorite" is the horse that the public bet consistently showing full confidence across the board. A lot of times you can spot a "Failed Favorite" by the amount that it has bet on it to show. If you have an odds on favorite that has almost as much or more to show than it does in the place pool, the Public is showing you that their confidence level on this horse isn't where it should be.

hurrikane
03-26-2002, 02:55 PM
Interesting idea although very subjective as to what ' solid favorite' would be.

Curious how many races you checked to produce this 51% winners and 2.5 ROI?

Dave Schwartz
03-26-2002, 03:21 PM
CTR,

How many "plays per hundred races" do you find with these solid
favorites?

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

CamptownRaces.com
03-26-2002, 03:29 PM
Just over 2,200 of those types of Unchalleged Favorite.

I don't go by ROI...

I show Profit per Dollar Wagered. This way any player can figure out what they would have made playing at their multiples.

I can bet a $100 Straight Exacta and hit it and be able to say +2,100 ROI

Looking at it from a Profit per Dollar Wagered point of view shows that you made a $21.00 profit for every $1.00 that you wagered.

The races that I have tested this from come from all over the US, Canada, and a few Hong Kong races. (doesn't work good in Hong Kong)

Ask away... I'm always here... I make my living betting and can back it up with "Documented" percentages...

http://www.procappers.com documents my sports picks...

And the selections board on this site will show you what I've done when I've posted FREE Picks for Horse Racing here.