How do you use Simulcast Weekly?

[andicap]

Wondering if people are having success using the Winners Files in the back in pinpointing key races or horses to watch or whatever.
I like the Beyers pars, but without figures for fillies and adjustments for younger horses, aren't they useless?

[cj]

I use Simulcast Weekly a little differently. First, since it includes the Beyers, I run them through a quick little program I have written and make notes of all the BS Beyers. Those are the ones I find where the variant for a particular race isn't in line with the rest of them. Usually, a really fast or slow place led to a slow final time, and they just make up a Beyer I guess. This also happens in reverse too, where a horse will be assigned a Beyer way below what the actual time of the race would have calculated out. With the public's widespread use of the figures, finding these false ones has lead to some nice scores.

Other than that, I just use the paper to calculate pace variants and make pace figures for all the races as well as looking for track biases. I know I can get this info online, but for me it is easier to have them all printed out and in one place.

CJ

[Tom]

andicap,
I tink the Winner's Book is the most useful thing to come down the pike in years. It is by far the best thing DRF publishes (everyonehas PP's these day).
Here's what I do.
I download the charts daily from TrackMaster for the several tracks play the most. Then I import the data into an Acces database, then I have a querry that exports secific data to Excel.
I convert the pace of race Beyer to a Quirin number - I have set of formulas that I got by using the chart in the back of Beyer on Speed and running the numbers throught the scatter diagram feature in Excel, and getting the regression formula from the chart. Next, I convert the pace and final times of each race to a Quirin number-for this, I use Dave Schwartz's partimes. The next column in my spreadsheet calculates the daily variant. Sometimes I find a race that is totally out of wack for the day, then I look closely as to why. Sometimes, I find a great opportunity-an error that gives a horse a lower number than he deserves. Mostly, I just find a suspect race. I also have a formula that calcluats the pace variant for each race. I don't use half the final time variant. I will get numbers like Fast 2, Fast 4, Fast 1, etc. and then average them out for the daily pace variant. I look for races with exceptionally fast pace times and follow the ponies from these races. I like when I have a day that is S3,S2, S4, S1, F6, S1.
This F6 may be a key race and I check it out very carefully. At the least, it may be an excuse race for the leaders or pressers.
Now, using GameTheroy's parser, I have the option of doing a lot more tracks - TM costs a dollar a day, so I don't want to download too many every day of the year. And a lot of their files are just corrupted lately, so it is risky to use them. I figure their arrogance in this matter is going to cost them a few hundred bucks a year from me. (Hear them shivering??)
As far as pars go, use the adjustment in Andy's book or in Quinn's books to get pars for fillies, 3yo, etc. What I do with my Excel spread sheet is periodically sort by class and figure out my own class pars. I posted these for NYRA here last year and am currently updating them for the spring/summer meet.
The only way they could make Winner's book better would be to make it available in a comma-deliminated file so I wouldn't have to hand-enter the Beyers, but hey, as it is, you have a record of every track every day, every race on every card with a chance to get a variant from the data and a change to see the running bias that day. Life is good. If my copy of SW doesn't come by Friday. Iwill drive 30 miles to Rochester to buy a copy, just in case it doesn't come - I can't miss a single issue of this paper! I would rather have two than none.

Tom :cool: :cool: :cool: :cool: