I've changed my strategy...stop the presses..(~:\

[Half Smoke]

..........................


yes, I posted a few weeks ago that I was quitting betting racing but that hasn't happened................surprise surprise surprise

except for very big races where I like betting on a very strong horse................I've changed my strategy

I will no longer pick one horse that I like.................
instead I will bet against the fave
when I see a fave that's odds on - 3/5 or 4/5 that is way undeserving IMHO

to do that I will have to predict that late money will take him down that low - or close to that low - he probably won't be that low when I bet him - predicting this is often not very hard to do

I will dutch 3 or 4 horses against the fave picking those that I think have the best chance to beat him



comments?



*

[PhantomOnTour]

I make a wager for one of the following three reasons only:

1) there is a vulnerable favorite and i have a viable horse(s) that can win
2) there's a horse i really like at overlaid odds
3) there's a viable longshot (in the neighborhood of 12-1 or higher) that I'm confident can finish in the top three

Betting under any other circumstances is just wishiful thinking in my opinion

[classhandicapper]

I make a wager for one of the following three reasons only:

1) there is a vulnerable favorite and i have a viable horse(s) that can win
2) there's a horse i really like at overlaid odds
3) there's a viable longshot (in the neighborhood of 12-1 or higher) that I'm confident can finish in the top three

Betting under any other circumstances is just wishiful thinking in my opinion

+1 on all that.

[Half Smoke]

.....................



so if you guys see a fave at 3/5 and you think he should be no better than 3/1
but you don't see any particularly great bet among the others then -


you would pass the race?

correct?



*

[Onesome]

What evidence do you have that the horses that go off at 4/5 that you think s/b 3/1 win at a rate closer to your line vs the market?

If anything I probably be more willing to bet on those 4/5's you think should be 3/1

[Half Smoke]

What evidence do you have that the horses that go off at 4/5 that you think s/b 3/1 win at a rate closer to your line vs the market?

If anything I probably be more willing to bet on those 4/5's you think should be 3/1


Sir, I don't really understand your question
to me, handicapping is not about evidence it's about opinions
there are all sorts of things that can go into forming your opinion - all of the things that a horseplayer learns over time

I also don't understand why you say you're so willing to bet on 4/5s

it's possible a 4/5 could be good bet no doubt

it's also possible that for a variety of reasons he could be overbet

I don't know why a handicapper would accept the odds on the tote as being the true odds after the takeout is factored out

if the tote always reflected true odds on every horse then a player could never get an edge because of the takeout - the takeout would grind him down



obviously, you don't think much of my strategy
that's fine - there are dozens of ways to strategize


Good Luck - in whatever your ways are


*

[Onesome]

Oh I'm more certain now with that response I would book your action.

It's more than likely the opinions you have are worthless, a fantasy created in your head as a feeble attempt to try bring order to chaos in the world (well at least the world of horse racing).

You are probably like 95% of players on this forum, their simulcast or maybe one day, at the track. They open up their form of choice and tunnel in the horse with the best recent form, flashy figs and dominant early speed. Your action is predictable.

What is not predictable, are what the top 5% of players doing, the people who always seem to have just a little more info then you and me, who see races differently and are on the horses that people like you scratch their heads about reviewing the form while this player is in line to cash his ticket. They are the ones betting a horse you think should be 3/1 to 4/5.

Unfortunately with no fixed price bookies or exchanges in America, these better players are in the shadows for a long time to a point where it's tough to follow. A little easier in the overseas market.

[thaskalos]

..........................


yes, I posted a few weeks ago that I was quitting betting racing but that hasn't happened................surprise surprise surprise

except for very big races where I like betting on a very strong horse................I've changed my strategy

I will no longer pick one horse that I like.................
instead I will bet against the fave
when I see a fave that's odds on - 3/5 or 4/5 that is way undeserving IMHO

to do that I will have to predict that late money will take him down that low - or close to that low - he probably won't be that low when I bet him - predicting this is often not very hard to do

I will dutch 3 or 4 horses against the fave picking those that I think have the best chance to beat him



comments?



*
When you bet on those 3 or 4 horses against the prohibitive favorite...will your total monetary investment be much greater than what you'd be normally willing to bet in a race? IMO...what destroys most dutch bettors is their overconfidence. They are so sure that one of their 3 or 4 dutched horses will defeat the prohibitive favorite...they end up betting much more on the race than what their bankroll can safely afford.

[mountainman]

I make a wager for one of the following three reasons only:

1) there is a vulnerable favorite and i have a viable horse(s) that can win
2) there's a horse i really like at overlaid odds
3) there's a viable longshot (in the neighborhood of 12-1 or higher) that I'm confident can finish in the top three

Betting under any other circumstances is just wishiful thinking in my opinion

Great post. If winning money were as simple as sniffing out weak chalks, even passably competent handicappers could quit their day jobs. But speaking just for myself, merely hating a popular favorite just has not afforded a profitable edge unless one of the "overlays" genuinely appeals in its own right. Thus I've come to interpret the impulse to "dutch" as a self-admission that antipathy toward the chalk is my ONLY workable insight to the race, so I just say no.

[Half Smoke]

When you bet on those 3 or 4 horses against the prohibitive favorite...will your total monetary investment be much greater than what you'd be normally willing to bet in a race? IMO...what destroys most dutch bettors is their overconfidence. They are so sure that one of their 3 or 4 dutched horses will defeat the prohibitive favorite...they end up betting much more on the race than what their bankroll can safely afford.


first, thank you for the tone of your post
thank you for not implying that I'm an idiot
you are truly a gentleman

the answer to your question is no, my monetary investment will not be much greater than I'd normally willing to bet

I'm not, as you say, sure that one of my dutched horses will beat the prohibitive fave. I also am well away that I will sometimes get beat by an un-included shot

I'm well acquainted with variance

I came to betting horses after many years counting cards at blackjack

(I used to spend the whole day walking up and down the boardwalk in Atlantic City - casino hopping - so my face would not be recognizable)

I had literally whole days where I lost everywhere I went, experiences way beyond my mathematical expectation

and literally whole days where everywhere I went I won - as if an angel sat on my shoulder

so no, I have no illusions about my method being a magic pill

but it's fun to try something new and see how I will do




*

[Half Smoke]

....................


too late to edit the above post but...............

correction - when I wrote something new

I meant new for me

I'm well aware that many others have done this before me





*

[Half Smoke]

..........................



the image is from Barry Meadow's latest book
it shows that odds on horses lose about half the time

for this strategy to be successful - I believe - the user has to be able to handicap so that the odds on horse he picks to bet against loses more often than that




https://i.imgur.com/X7hdVU7.png



*

[thaskalos]

first, thank you for the tone of your post
thank you for not implying that I'm an idiot...


I've done so many dumb things myself that I'm practically disqualified from implying that anyone else is an "idiot".

[stuball]

So what do you say we start a club for people that have done some or many stupid things but are not idiots................

FOR BEGINNERS I NOMINATE MYSELF (STUBALL) AS A CHARTER MEMBER

CARRY ON:puke:

[PhantomOnTour]

So what do you say we start a club for people that have done some or many stupid things but are not idiots................

FOR BEGINNERS I NOMINATE MYSELF (STUBALL) AS A CHARTER MEMBER

CARRY ON:puke:

I’m not eligible for membership in this club...I’m clearly overqualified :lol:

[Robert Fischer]

I make a wager for one of the following three reasons only:

1) there is a vulnerable favorite and i have a viable horse(s) that can win
2) there's a horse i really like at overlaid odds
3) there's a viable longshot (in the neighborhood of 12-1 or higher) that I'm confident can finish in the top three

Betting under any other circumstances is just wisiful thinking in my opinion
three good ones
:ThmbUp:


Good ideas Half Smoke.

Onesome's point on unexpected odds behavior adding something to the mix, is on point as well.

Thaskalos is right about the high cost of dutching several.



So you've found an odds -on favorite that you feel is false or vulnerable. The strategy from that point is important

dutch several?
make a small 'lean' Win or exotic that has potential to show a long-term profit?
spread and combine with other such opinions in a multi-race sequence?
other strategies??

[classhandicapper]

.....................

so if you guys see a fave at 3/5 and you think he should be no better than 3/1
but you don't see any particularly great bet among the others then -

you would pass the race?

correct?

*

I find that to get an edge I can feel confident about I need two opinions inside the same. By that I mean I have a good reason to think one of the favorites is overbet and a good reason to think some other horse is better than he looks. If I hate the favorite but don't have much of value oriented opinion on someone else, I might still get involved in some exactas using contenders, but I'd have to really hate the favorite a lot.

I'll explain why.

Let's say the favorite has 35% of the pool and I think he's overbet. That doesn't mean he can't win. Maybe he has a 20% chance of winning. Betting against him it's going to overcome the entire take and generate a profit. It's getting me into the ballpark. Maybe with a generous rebate you can get involved, but otherwise you need some other positive value oriented insight.

[Robert Fischer]

I find that to get an edge I can feel confident about I need two opinions inside the same. By that I mean I have a good reason to think one of the favorites is overbet and a good reason to think some other horse is better than he looks. If I hate the favorite but don't have much of value oriented opinion on someone else, I might still get involved in some exactas using contenders, but I'd have to really hate the favorite a lot.

I'll explain why.

Let's say the favorite has 35% of the pool and I think he's overbet. That doesn't mean he can't win. Maybe he has a 20% chance of winning. Betting against him it's going to overcome the entire take and generate a profit. It's getting me into the ballpark. Maybe with a generous rebate you can get involved, but otherwise you need some other positive value oriented insight.

want an underlay, and an overlay...

[Half Smoke]

Let's say the favorite has 35% of the pool and I think he's overbet.


as I very clearly stated I am focused on betting only against odds on favorites



odds on favorites have 50% or more of the win pool




*

[formula_2002]

..........................


yes, I posted a few weeks ago that I was quitting betting racing but that hasn't happened................surprise surprise surprise

except for very big races where I like betting on a very strong horse................I've changed my strategy

I will no longer pick one horse that I like.................
instead I will bet against the fave
when I see a fave that's odds on - 3/5 or 4/5 that is way undeserving IMHO

to do that I will have to predict that late money will take him down that low - or close to that low - he probably won't be that low when I bet him - predicting this is often not very hard to do

I will dutch 3 or 4 horses against the fave picking those that I think have the best chance to beat him



comments?



*

I'll save you a lot of money. Put your bet into a "cookie jar". If you win your bet credit your "account" if you lose leave the bet in the cookie jar. After a "large" number of races adjust your accounts. You will have money in the cookie jar. Consider your self a winner.

[classhandicapper]

as I very clearly stated I am focused on betting only against odds on favorites



odds on favorites have 50% or more of the win pool




*


Same principle.

Even when you dislike an odds on favorite, they are still going to win a decent percentage of the time. They are almost never so bad or you so right about the situation that those horses are always going to lose.

IMO (assuming you've identified a bad odds on favorite), those horses will just win less often than the odds suggest and lose way more than the track take. That's usually enough to get you in the ballpark for profit. But to give yourself a real margin of safety it helps if you have some positive value oriented opinion on 1 or 2 of the other contenders.

My typical bet would look something like this.

The odds on favorite is coming off a gold rail that not many people noticed and was loose in a soft pace the time before that. He's good, but no way is he even money in this spot.

An 8-1 shot raced OK while outside on that same day and his previous effort was clearly good enough to win if I'm right about the favorite and that bias. A 15-1 shot got subtly squeezed at the start last out that didn't draw a chart comment, his previous race was against the race flow, and his races before that are good enough to be in the mix.

I would bet both the 8-1 and 15-1 shots to win and box them in the exacta weighted a little heavier towards whoever I thought was the bigger overlay.

But you should do whatever works for you.

[cj]

as I very clearly stated I am focused on betting only against odds on favorites



odds on favorites have 50% or more of the win pool




*

100,000 pool.

18% takeout.

82,000 left.

Any horse with 41,000 bet on it or above will be even money or lower. A horse could pay 3.20 with less than 50% of the pool on it.

[Onesome]

Same principle.

Even when you dislike an odds on favorite, they are still going to win a decent percentage of the time. They are almost never so bad or you so right about the situation that those horses are always going to lose.

IMO (assuming you've identified a bad odds on favorite), those horses will just win less often than the odds suggest and lose way more than the track take. That's usually enough to get you in the ballpark for profit. But to give yourself a real margin of safety it helps if you have some positive value oriented opinion on 1 or 2 of the other contenders.

My typical bet would look something like this.

The odds on favorite is coming off a gold rail that not many people noticed and was loose in a soft pace the time before that. He's good, but no way is he even money in this spot.

An 8-1 shot raced OK while outside on that same day and his previous effort was clearly good enough to win if I'm right about the favorite and that bias. A 15-1 shot got subtly squeezed at the start last out that didn't draw a chart comment, his previous race was against the race flow, and his races before that are good enough to be in the mix.

I would bet both the 8-1 and 15-1 shots to win and box them in the exacta weighted a little heavier towards whoever I thought was the bigger overlay.

But you should do whatever works for you.

So much work for a bet in a single race and you know life is unpredictable and all your hard work could go out the window because the jockey falls off at the start.

In other words I have issues with the scalability of this type of analysis. This although probably does result in a better ROI over the long run but you'll never get to it. And you might not even have +EV insights in that longrun, this type of info could already be priced in.

[Robert Fischer]

So much work for a bet in a single race and you know life is unpredictable and all your hard work could go out the window because the jockey falls off at the start.

In other words I have issues with the scalability of this type of analysis. This although probably does result in a better ROI over the long run but you'll never get to it. And you might not even have +EV insights in that longrun, this type of info could already be priced in.

:ThmbUp:

to me, this is part of the fun in betting.

You've got the stars and the characters on the track, you've got the action (both on the track and with the gambling), and then there's this world of betting strategy, and probability, and even investing.

It can be a lot of work, and TBH, racing doesn't often give a ton of opportunities.

Even if you are lucky enough to discover an angle or an edge, the vast majority of the wagering opportunities are going to be an efficient market.

:popcorn: There's an opportunity for all, to 'dabble' in the more scientific gambling levels of the game, if they so choose. Responsible play, and patience are a must.

I'll save you a lot of money. Put your bet into a "cookie jar". If you win your bet credit your "account" if you lose leave the bet in the cookie jar. After a "large" number of races adjust your accounts. You will have money in the cookie jar. Consider your self a winner.

https://i.ibb.co/1X1Q3Rs/cookie.jpg

[Half Smoke]

......................


some have suggested this is a doomed strategy

I never claimed it was a sure winner - I just put it out there as something I'm going to try

if something interests me and I don't try it - I'm going to have regrets

if it fails, I will try something else that's new for me that many here will no doubt consider to be idiotic

btw - it scored on my first 3 tries - I'm 3-0 - I'm making very few bets - not trying to say that suggests it's a long run winner - just saying - I'm not that naive


as the Great Gretzky said:


you miss 100% of the shots you don't take




Good Luck to All



*

[Half Smoke]

......................


one last point about the effect of breakage when you bet on odds on favorites

if without breakage the payout would be $3.38 at most tracks the actually payout will be $3.20

breakage will demolish 15% of the profit in this example




if you bet on a horse that would have paid $12.18 without breakage it will payout $12.00 after breakage at most tracks

in this example breakage only destroyed 1.8% of the profit



*

[MJC922]

......................


one last point about the effect of breakage when you bet on odds on favorites

if without breakage the payout would be $3.38 at most tracks the actually payout will be $3.20

breakage will demolish 15% of the profit in this example




if you bet on a horse that would have paid $12.18 without breakage it will payout $12.00 after breakage at most tracks

in this example breakage only destroyed 1.8% of the profit



*

It's a good point and kills much of the appeal of place and show wagering.

[castaway01]

......................


some have suggested this is a doomed strategy

I never claimed it was a sure winner - I just put it out there as something I'm going to try

if something interests me and I don't try it - I'm going to have regrets

if it fails, I will try something else that's new for me that many here will no doubt consider to be idiotic

btw - it scored on my first 3 tries - I'm 3-0 - I'm making very few bets - not trying to say that suggests it's a long run winner - just saying - I'm not that naive


as the Great Gretzky said:


you miss 100% of the shots you don't take




Good Luck to All



*
It's not a "doomed strategy" if you're incredible good at it. Gee, if you beat every bad favorite, will you make money? Yes, of course you will. It's just your post like it's something brilliant or unique is funny.

And everyone knows Michael Scott said that, not Gretzky.

[classhandicapper]

So much work for a bet in a single race and you know life is unpredictable and all your hard work could go out the window because the jockey falls off at the start.

In other words I have issues with the scalability of this type of analysis. This although probably does result in a better ROI over the long run but you'll never get to it. And you might not even have +EV insights in that longrun, this type of info could already be priced in.

Al I can tell you is that if I simply looked at a set of high quality figures and tried to out handicap everyone else using the same or similar figures I'm pretty sure I'd lose despite my decades of experience.

IMO, the value is in information not publicly available or especially that's being misunderstood by other serious players.

What I do is scalable in some ways and not in others.

[Onesome]

Al I can tell you is that if I simply looked at a set of high quality figures and tried to out handicap everyone else using the same or similar figures I'm pretty sure I'd lose despite my decades of experience.

IMO, the value is in information not publicly available or especially that's being misunderstood by other serious players.

What I do is scalable in some ways and not in others.

I think we are have the same theology but have a different approach. I think your example is trying to find the missing information, my approach is to sit back and let others, like you, tell me what the missing information is via the public markets. So where your approach will be limited to watching the races at NYRA tracks, I can use my approach from Belmont to Longchamp to Sha Tin to Flemmington.

[Robert Fischer]

IMO, the value is in information not publicly available or especially that's being misunderstood by other serious players.


Efficient market. "Priced in".

100% agree


Yes, the general, publicly available info is accurate for most horses. If you are using the same info and speed figures, in the same ways, you will be splitting your takeout-reduced winnings with a bunch of other players, and it will be a negative ROI in the long term.

Wildcard
Playing with public info, or exclusive info, occasionally 'unknown' horses do occur.
Good example of a winning type = Chilean-bred SANENUS in yesterday's Grade 3, La Canada Stakes at Santa Anita. $17Win.

I don't have a good strategy for wildcard/unknown types. I'll glance at the board, but true unknowns tend to hover in the mid-range prices.

Exclusive Inside Info: These can come from your own insight as you watch races. Unfortunately, I don't have all the big trainers, grooms and jockeys in my DMs/on speed dial. Occasionally the money talks. You see a horse hot or cold, and it's worth considering.

Misunderstood: 'Hype' overrated are the easiest, but not very frequent. You have to do some digging in the pace figures, and pace projector, and/or watching races in order to form an occasional disagreement with the consensus betting market.

[classhandicapper]

I think we are have the same theology but have a different approach. I think your example is trying to find the missing information, my approach is to sit back and let others, like you, tell me what the missing information is via the public markets. So where your approach will be limited to watching the races at NYRA tracks, I can use my approach from Belmont to Longchamp to Sha Tin to Flemmington.

If you can use the betting markets to find overlays everywhere that's great. I'd way rather not watch hours of replays every week.

I don't bet NYRA as much anymore. I focus on higher quality races around the country, but even when NYRA has high quality races or race days, the fields tend to be small, dominated by some logical favorite, or my views seem fully reflected on the board. I'm playing more turf these days where the fields are larger, but who wants to spend their life trying to find a single Chad Brown horse that's not a threat to move forward or get a perfect trip to beat you. ;)

I kind of like CD, KEE, OP, GP, TAM, FG, MTH etc.. I'm not sure if it's the efficiency of the pools or something else, but I just seem to find more playable races for what I am doing.

[ultracapper]

As somebody stated earlier in the thread, identifying a vulnerable odds-on favorite is all fine and good, but if you don't have positive insights into viable alternatives, you're still stuck at the fork in the road, with little to help to decide which way to go.

I prefer identifying the alternative before concerning myself whether the fav is viably vulnerable. I'll usually be excited about a horse I think is being disrespected on the tote, then assess the favorite's chances.

It's best to know where you want to go, then figure out how you'll get there. Meaning, know your target, then determine if anything is in the way of you hitting it.

[Nitro]

I think we are have the same theology but have a different approach. I think your example is trying to find the missing information, my approach is to sit back and let others, like you, tell me what the missing information is via the public markets. So where your approach will be limited to watching the races at NYRA tracks, I can use my approach from Belmont to Longchamp to Sha Tin to Flemmington.

Nice to see that someone else understands the objective realities of this game. Until those people who have a sincere interest realize that this game is all about money, they will continue to pursue that fleeting goal through their experiences using limited information and its subjective interpretation. The markets can certainly be considered “public” (domain), but those making up a portion of the betting population and consistently having a major influence are anything but public.

[classhandicapper]

Misunderstood: 'Hype' overrated are the easiest, but not very frequent. You have to do some digging in the pace figures, and pace projector, and/or watching races in order to form an occasional disagreement with the consensus betting market.

That's the most interesting category because it's so complex.

Most of these are either horses with very good records but slower speed figures or horses with fast figures that haven't faced a stern test of their quality.

Most people these days allow the figures to dictate their thinking.

I think some of those slower horses with outstanding records are capable of running faster, but some are just not as good as their record indicates.

I think some of the fast horses that faced weak competition will wilt under quality pressure and some will run even faster when pressured.

The skill is in knowing what you are dealing with before they reveal it by being tested.

[River11]

..........................



I will dutch 3 or 4 horses against the fave picking those that I think have the best chance to beat him



comments?



*

Grinding it out has never worked for me, it's horizontal bets with the occasional big hit that keeps me going.

[Robert Fischer]

Occasionally the money talks. You see a horse hot or cold, and it's worth considering.

Frustrating yesterday. Had 3 horses in 3 different races. Won the first pick. Horse slammed at break, and then in a race long drive, surging through traffic, finishing 2nd for a $45/1 ex. Narrowly missed a nice dime super with a horse I considered including 4th. Still a solid win. Losing focus and attention, so I opted towards passing the rest of the day.
Next pick came up, and I glanced at him, and ICE COLD on the board. So, I figure; "Money Talks" maybe shouldn't be the favorite, but should be obvious as a threat from a top barn, - and so that it's most likely that the horse isn't at his best today. Wins at a big price. Then the 3rd horse won at a big price. :bang:



was good to have had some luck with the selections, but the betting and the woulda-coulda-shoulda was frustrating

[classhandicapper]

Next pick came up, and I glanced at him, and ICE COLD on the board. So, I figure; "Money Talks" maybe shouldn't be the favorite, but should be obvious as a threat from a top barn,

I suspect the "Money Talks" angle works better with horses that gamblers have to guess about like first time starters, layoffs, first time turf, some shippers, a consistent horse that ran poorly last time for no obvious reason, horses that usually work regularly but have gaps in their workouts recently and things like that. Those are the kinds of situations where insiders have a clear edge in knowing the talent of the horses, the status of the horse, whether it's ready for an "A" race etc..

Some of the other situations where people are yelling "they knew" are more likely to be the opposite. The person yelling "they knew" simply "didn't know" what a lot of other people did. :lol:

Maybe the are using a different set of figures, missed a bias or trip, missed a trainer pattern, or misunderstood a certain trip or situation, but they are starting from the perspective that they know everything and are always right. So they conclude it had to be some insider when it was just the public doing a better job on that race.

[Onesome]

Frustrating yesterday. Had 3 horses in 3 different races. Won the first pick. Horse slammed at break, and then in a race long drive, surging through traffic, finishing 2nd for a $45/1 ex. Narrowly missed a nice dime super with a horse I considered including 4th. Still a solid win. Losing focus and attention, so I opted towards passing the rest of the day.
Next pick came up, and I glanced at him, and ICE COLD on the board. So, I figure; "Money Talks" maybe shouldn't be the favorite, but should be obvious as a threat from a top barn, - and so that it's most likely that the horse isn't at his best today. Wins at a big price. Then the 3rd horse won at a big price. :bang:
was good to have had some luck with the selections, but the betting and the woulda-coulda-shoulda was frustrating

Re: the 2nd race....does your process consider tote action normally?

If the answer is no then why did you care about it in this race and just follow your process?

If the answer is yes then why did you care about the result of the race? You obviously made a judgment that 'this scenario isn't profitable' for you (either via data or 'gut').

Results are just variance, they don't matter, only the process does.

[Robert Fischer]

Re: the 2nd race....does your process consider tote action normally?

If the answer is no then why did you care about it in this race and just follow your process?

If the answer is yes then why did you care about the result of the race? You obviously made a judgment that 'this scenario isn't profitable' for you (either via data or 'gut').

Results are just variance, they don't matter, only the process does.

Good stuff. :ThmbUp:


-Tote Action: Yes, I consider the tote for horses that are somewhat of a wildcard, with some unknowns. In this case, (Tampa r8 pps=spendthrift, Cross Traffic sire)there was no standout in my opinion, and the favorite was in a low% barn. The :9: was in the barn of a trainer that I follow. He had weird form running at PRM and WRD, and just 1 race at Gulfstream for $25k. Today's race was Tampa OC16Nx1?... I knew he was a wildcard, but the tote opened up at 12-1 or so with the smaller bettors, and dropped to his morning line of 6-1 at off... Pace was fast, and he was able to establish a stalking position, inherit the lead, take first run, and grind home. $15.40 $7.60 $4.80

literally had the PPs scrolled and fixed on the horse, but I had doubts


I agree w/ being 'Process Oriented' and unaffected by Results.

Greed etc... gets me a bit, and also want to be sure that a trial-and-error process is running

[Half Smoke]

...................


I strongly disagree that the public always or almost always prices horses correctly

I'm going to point to one race and I'm fully aware that one race doesn't prove anything

the Malibu Stakes


several posters here, posted that Charlatan looked like the much stronger horse than Nashville - he had Grade 1 experience as did all the other horses in the race. and had run in longer races. he also had higher speed figures - Nashville had only run in a minor stakes. Nashville's best race was at 6, now he was going to have to go 7 furlongs - he had never gone that far - it was pretty obvious to many here that there was a good chance the G1 horses would run him down

and all those posters here who said that were right

Nashville finished a weak 4th more than 8 lengths back

But Nashville was made the fave at 1.3/1

I'm all but sure it had nothing to do with insiders

it had to do with the public mistakenly guessing that Nashville was going to be sensational because of his one excellent race at a shorter distance


this is just one example - but there are lots
it may not happen often - but it happens sometimes



*

[Half Smoke]

It's just your post like it's something brilliant or unique is funny.



excuse me Sir,

this is what I posted:



....................


- when I wrote something new

I meant new for me

I'm well aware that many others have done this before me

*



*

[castaway01]

I know what you SAID, but you still made repeated posts defending your "logic". I don't even get the point of why you posted, but then I feel that way with most of what I read here lately.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't even get the point of why you posted, but then I feel that way with most of what I read here lately.Sorry to disappoint.

Please contact customer service to request a refund.

[Poindexter]

...................


I strongly disagree that the public always or almost always prices horses correctly

I'm going to point to one race and I'm fully aware that one race doesn't prove anything

the Malibu Stakes


several posters here, posted that Charlatan looked like the much stronger horse than Nashville - he had Grade 1 experience as did all the other horses in the race. and had run in longer races. he also had higher speed figures - Nashville had only run in a minor stakes. Nashville's best race was at 6, now he was going to have to go 7 furlongs - he had never gone that far - it was pretty obvious to many here that there was a good chance the G1 horses would run him down

and all those posters here who said that were right

Nashville finished a weak 4th more than 8 lengths back

But Nashville was made the fave at 1.3/1

I'm all but sure it had nothing to do with insiders

it had to do with the public mistakenly guessing that Nashville was going to be sensational because of his one excellent race at a shorter distance


this is just one example - but there are lots
it may not happen often - but it happens sometimes



*

Of course the public makes mistakes and always will. There are 2 problems with your strategy.

1) Overbet odds on favorites (as a group) are probably the most accurately prices horses in racing. Odds on favorites are already very accurately priced and if you add in the fact that they are dramatically overbet, you are adding a lot of "smart money" into the equation. Just to give you an example (from harness racing but same idea) I find that odds on horses I make 3-1 or higher win just as often as odds on favorites as do horses I make 2-1 or less. Logically that doesn't make a lot of sense to me but it tells me that when that kind of heavy money is going down on a horse there is usually a very good reason.

2) Lets assume that despite point 1 you are still very good at finding vulnerable odds on favorites. The problem with your strategy is you are often wasting money on poor value horses. Also because you are dutching you are weighting them equally based off public odds and not your opinion.

Let's take a hypothetical race.

The 4 is 3/5
The 2 is 4-1
The 5 is 6-1
The 8 is 10-1
The 12 is 12-1

in your opinion you feel these the 2-5-8-12 is the dutch against the overbet 4. So it cost you $51 to potentially get back $100. IMO (obviously you feel differently) a 3/5 shot that you thing is way overbet will still win about half the time. You would have to win 100% of your dutches to just break even.

Looking it a different way your 4 horse dutch will likely win 85% of the time the favorite loses(a little less on larger fields, a little higher on shorter fields).
Since your break even point is about 51% you would need the odds on favorites to win only 40% of the time along with your 85% hit rate on the dutch to break even(.60*.85 is equal to 51%).

Now if you can get 3-5 shots to win only 40%(which is a tall order but maybe you are that sharp and selective) of the time and you are getting nice rebates (maybe 5 or 6%) this can work for you. But for a layperson just trying to beat "overbet" odds on favorites with no rebate, this would be a terrible strategy. My opinion, you have to be very good and have to get nice rebates to make this work. If you are able to get those kind of rebates and are good enough to get it to work, it is a high probability play, so you can grow a bankroll pretty quickly. Personally I would prefer this strategy more for the pick 4 and pick 5 pools. Because in those pools people need singles and will latch on to 3/5 shots. Of course not every race is the start of a pick 4 or pick 5 (but a lot of tracks have rolling pick 3's-same idea but not nearly as effective since many really do not need singles in a pick 3).

[Poindexter]

Just to add one more point. Assuming you are amply rebated and wanted to take this on, I think you have to get really versed in deciphering whether the horse is overbet because of "smart money" which you obviously do not want to take on and "public money" which you obviously should have no issues taking on.

[Onesome]

Good stuff. :ThmbUp:


-Tote Action: Yes, I consider the tote for horses that are somewhat of a wildcard, with some unknowns. In this case, (Tampa r8 pps=spendthrift, Cross Traffic sire)there was no standout in my opinion, and the favorite was in a low% barn. The :9: was in the barn of a trainer that I follow. He had weird form running at PRM and WRD, and just 1 race at Gulfstream for $25k. Today's race was Tampa OC16Nx1?... I knew he was a wildcard, but the tote opened up at 12-1 or so with the smaller bettors, and dropped to his morning line of 6-1 at off... Pace was fast, and he was able to establish a stalking position, inherit the lead, take first run, and grind home. $15.40 $7.60 $4.80

literally had the PPs scrolled and fixed on the horse, but I had doubts


I agree w/ being 'Process Oriented' and unaffected by Results.

Greed etc... gets me a bit, and also want to be sure that a trial-and-error process is running

First flash I see is 20 MTP and he was 19-1, he was 11-1 at 10 MTP so maybe thats when you saw him. Problem is there was only 5K in the win pool at 20 MTP, 8K at 10 MTP. Final win pool was 95K.

Thats the problem with American racing in trying to use price action as an indicator when so much comes in at the final moments since there is no incentive to show your cards early via fixed odds bookies/exchanges like there is in the rest of the world.

I don't mean it doesn't happen elsewhere inthe world, Sir Dragonet went from 10-1 to 6.5-1 with the bookies in the minutes leading up to his Cox Plate win, but by US tote standards thats not a crazy move and it's so rare it made headlines.

[Robert Fischer]

First flash I see is 20 MTP and he was 19-1, he was 11-1 at 10 MTP so maybe thats when you saw him. Problem is there was only 5K in the win pool at 20 MTP, 8K at 10 MTP. Final win pool was 95K.

Thats the problem with American racing in trying to use price action as an indicator when so much comes in at the final moments since there is no incentive to show your cards early via fixed odds bookies/exchanges like there is in the rest of the world.

I don't mean it doesn't happen elsewhere inthe world, Sir Dragonet went from 10-1 to 6.5-1 with the bookies in the minutes leading up to his Cox Plate win, but by US tote standards thats not a crazy move and it's so rare it made headlines.

thank you. Yea, in the US, the early money is often light, and casual-driven.

Will-Pays from Doubles and other multi-race pools are generally more accurate than early Win pool money.

[PhantomOnTour]

I make a wager for one of the following three reasons only:

1) there is a vulnerable favorite and i have a viable horse(s) that can win
2) there's a horse i really like at overlaid odds
3) there's a viable longshot (in the neighborhood of 12-1 or higher) that I'm confident can finish in the top three

Betting under any other circumstances is just wishiful thinking in my opinion

Time for me to put my money where my mouth is and put Rule 1 from above to the test (something tells me I'm going to regret this :lol:)

Looking at R8 from FG on Thurs Jan 14 - MSW 5.5f on turf for 3yr olds:

The :10: is the ML choice at 5-2 and will likely go off as the chalk for powerhouse trainer and jock (Amoss & Geroux). This colt looks like a big underlay and one who is very reluctant to win. He's had many chances and just doesn't seem to want it. Been right there in the stretch and can't get the job done. Lasix and blinkers in his last two haven't done the trick.
I will try to beat him with primarily the :4:, but will also consider the :5::6::8:.
More on this race tomorrow.
The pp's can be found at the Who Bet page under the Winstar tab (choose Exaggerator)

[thaskalos]

Time for me to put my money where my mouth is and put Rule 1 from above to the test (something tells me I'm going to regret this :lol:)

Looking at R8 from FG on Thurs Jan 14 - MSW 5.5f on turf for 3yr olds:

The :10: is the ML choice at 5-2 and will likely go off as the chalk for powerhouse trainer and jock (Amoss & Geroux). This colt looks like a big underlay and one who is very reluctant to win. He's had many chances and just doesn't seem to want it. Been right there in the stretch and can't get the job done. Lasix and blinkers in his last two haven't done the trick.
I will try to beat him with primarily the :4:, but will also consider the :5::6::8:.
More on this race tomorrow.
The pp's can be found at the Who Bet page under the Winstar tab (choose Exaggerator)

Not the ideal setup for your thesis...IMO. This might be the worst sort of race to spread out in.

[BarchCapper]

Looking at R8 from FG on Thurs Jan 14 - MSW 5.5f on turf for 3yr olds:

The :10: is the ML choice at 5-2 and will likely go off as the chalk for powerhouse trainer and jock (Amoss & Geroux). This colt looks like a big underlay and one who is very reluctant to win. He's had many chances and just doesn't seem to want it. Been right there in the stretch and can't get the job done. Lasix and blinkers in his last two haven't done the trick.


I look at that same record, and I'm able to make a case that it's one failure - in the first start. That's the only short turf sprint the horse has run. The KD race was 6 1/2 with a 350 ft runup - that makes it 7 furlongs.

The rest are dirt races.

I'm not saying I'm running to the windows - but I have a much harder time making this one an easy toss as the chalk.

This is why I love the puzzle and seeing others' analysis - so many ways to look at it!!!! I probably won't be playing this one, so I hope you're right!

[PhantomOnTour]

Rule 2: there's a horse i like at overlaid odds

Race 7 at GP today - MSW 7.5f TURF f3yrs old - post 3:40pm ET

I really like the :6:for Bill Mott on an angle i often use with him:
runner showed speed in a dirt sprint debut and faded, now goes longer on turf in 2nd lifetime start

I've found these types are often a big threat to wire the field, sometimes at nice odds. The ML on this gal is 10-1 but i expect the price to drop before post.
She looks as if she can make the lead fairly easily and the 5f turf stamina work at Payson gives me confidence.
Usual jock Junior is up and he's gonna go to the front.
Main threats are the :4: for Brown and the :1: for Pletcher.

I'll take as low as 6-1 on her. My play:
EX: 1-4 w 6
TRI: 6 w 1-4 w 1-2-4-5
WIN: 6

good luck if you're playing, and who ya got???

(race can be found on WoBet site, Todd Pletcher tab)

[PhantomOnTour]

Rule 2: there's a horse i like at overlaid odds

Race 7 at GP today - MSW 7.5f TURF f3yrs old - post 3:40pm ET

I really like the :6:for Bill Mott on an angle i often use with him:
runner showed speed in a dirt sprint debut and faded, now goes longer on turf in 2nd lifetime start

I've found these types are often a big threat to wire the field, sometimes at nice odds. The ML on this gal is 10-1 but i expect the price to drop before post.
She looks as if she can make the lead fairly easily and the 5f turf stamina work at Payson gives me confidence.
Usual jock Junior is up and he's gonna go to the front.
Main threats are the :4: for Brown and the :1: for Pletcher.

I'll take as low as 6-1 on her. My play:
EX: 1-4 w 6
TRI: 6 w 1-4 w 1-2-4-5
WIN: 6

good luck if you're playing, and who ya got???

(race can be found on WoBet site, Todd Pletcher tab)

She's at 9-2 with 2mtp so this is likely going to be a pass

[PhantomOnTour]

The :6: won a desperate photo at 4-1 over the longshot :3:
No play for me as my min odds were 6-1...boy did she run ugly though

[Half Smoke]

1) Overbet odds on favorites (as a group) are probably the most accurately prices horses in racing. Odds on favorites are already very accurately priced



the image is from Barry Meadow's latest book -
data from over 800,000 races

as you can see the dramatic gain in R.O.I. for odds on faves only occurs in the place and show pools

until it gets to horses priced above 3/1 the gain is only 1%
overall they beat the general takeout only by about 2%

and excuse me for stating the obvious, but..........

there is a dramatic difference in the price you will get on other entries if you're betting against a 3/5 fave compared to betting against a 9/5 fave




https://i.imgur.com/ysb0keX.png




*

[Poindexter]

the image is from Barry Meadow's latest book -
data from over 800,000 races

as you can see the dramatic gain in R.O.I. for odds on faves only occurs in the place and show pools

until it gets to horses priced above 3/1 the gain is only 1%
overall they beat the general takeout only by about 2%

and excuse me for stating the obvious, but..........

there is a dramatic difference in the price you will get on other entries if you're betting against a 3/5 fave compared to betting against a 9/5 fave




https://i.imgur.com/ysb0keX.png




*

I get your point that if odds on favorites are only 1% better roi than other favorites you see that as an opportunity. Doesn't change the fact that they are the most accurately priced horses in racing. Everything I posted I stand behind. The example I gave of a 4-1, 6-1, 10-1, and 12-1 is a very realistic guesstimate of the typical 4 horses you will be betting against a 3/5 shot (so I am not exactly sure what stating the obvious has to do with my post). After you dutch your 4 horses you are down to an even money shot. Thus everything I posted stands. The math changes a bit with a 3 horse dutch, as you might typically be playing a 4-1, 6-1, 8-1 against a 3/5 shot and thus you are now up to around 6/5 on your dutch, but you obviously lose some hit % with one less horse. You asked for comments I gave them.

[Nitro]

Time for me to put my money where my mouth is and put Rule 1 from above to the test (something tells me I'm going to regret this :lol:)

Looking at R8 from FG on Thurs Jan 14 - MSW 5.5f on turf for 3yr olds:

The :10: is the ML choice at 5-2 and will likely go off as the chalk for powerhouse trainer and jock (Amoss & Geroux). This colt looks like a big underlay and one who is very reluctant to win. He's had many chances and just doesn't seem to want it. Been right there in the stretch and can't get the job done. Lasix and blinkers in his last two haven't done the trick.
I will try to beat him with primarily the :4:, but will also consider the :5::6::8:.
More on this race tomorrow.
The pp's can be found at the Who Bet page under the Winstar tab (choose Exaggerator)

If I'm not mistaken this race is on the dirt and the #4 is scratched.
I'll be posting selections based on the tote board activities for some of the FG races today in the Selection forum.

[BarchCapper]

If I'm not mistaken this race is on the dirt and the #4 is scratched.
I'll be posting selections based on the tote board activities for some of the FG races today in the Selection forum.

You're not mistaken and neither was he. Race was scheduled for turf, and FG is off turf today.

And now I would no longer dissent from his expressed desire to toss the 10, based on multiple main track losing efforts.

[PhantomOnTour]

Time for me to put my money where my mouth is and put Rule 1 from above to the test (something tells me I'm going to regret this :lol:)

Looking at R8 from FG on Thurs Jan 14 - MSW 5.5f on turf for 3yr olds:

The :10: is the ML choice at 5-2 and will likely go off as the chalk for powerhouse trainer and jock (Amoss & Geroux). This colt looks like a big underlay and one who is very reluctant to win. He's had many chances and just doesn't seem to want it. Been right there in the stretch and can't get the job done. Lasix and blinkers in his last two haven't done the trick.
I will try to beat him with primarily the :4:, but will also consider the :5::6::8:.
More on this race tomorrow.
The pp's can be found at the Who Bet page under the Winstar tab (choose Exaggerator)

With the surface change and scratches I’m gonna pass this one, although the #8 is offering great value in my opinion at 16-1

[Half Smoke]

The example I gave of a 4-1, 6-1, 10-1, and 12-1 is a very realistic guesstimate of the typical 4 horses you will be betting against a 3/5 shot u asked for comments I gave them.


yes, that is realistic and thanks for the comments

the prices you get betting against the 3/5 fave also depends on the prices of the shots at the far end

if 4 un-included shots in a 9 horse field are priced at 25, 25, 30, and 35/1 you get a much worse payout than if they're priced at 18, 18, 20 and 22/1

it's also greatly dependent on the field size
much different payouts in a 6 horse field than in a 12 horse field

I recently got a payout of 17/1 on the 4th horse in the dutch for an overall profit of more than 2/1

but yes, that is unusual - it's fairly often close to what you indicated




*

[Half Smoke]

Grinding it out has never worked for me, it's horizontal bets with the occasional big hit that keeps me going.


I believe that almost everybody who is a long term winner in gambling is grinding in some way or another

like to pick superfectas with 3 longshots in there somehow?

lose $40,000 over 3 years and then a year later hit one for $50,000?

that's grinding - to me anyway




the exception is for those that hit scores in the 6 figures



*

[River11]

I believe that almost everybody who is a long term winner in gambling is grinding in some way or another

like to pick superfectas with 3 longshots in there somehow?

lose $40,000 over 3 years and then a year later hit one for $50,000?

that's grinding - to me anyway




the exception is for those that hit scores in the 6 figures



*

In my case , talking about 12-20 dollar or less pick 4,5,6's, targeting 500-2500 dollar hits. With life changing scores a possibility.