November Stats to date

[kingfin66]

Took a big o-fer at Aqu today after changing my trifecta bet in race 4. Only went 1/7 at Hol.

Stats for the month. Most of the profit is due to a big trifecta hit. All plays are from either Aqu or Hol and I believe all but one day's plays listed on PA.

Win bets: 7/35, 20%, wagered $700 ($20 per wager), returned $1050, P/L $350, ROI 50%.

Trifecta bets: 1/5, 20%, wagered $120 ($24 per wager), returned $1011.50, P/L $820, ROI 743%.

Totals: Wagered $820, returned $2061.50, P/L $1241.50, ROI 151%.

These results are obviously atypical (for anybody). My goal is to be selective about win bets and try to hit for an ROI of 10-15%, and to be very selective with trifecta bets and hit a nice one every other week or so.

I will try to update results every week.

[kingfin66]

Win bets: 13/70, 19%, wagered $1400 ($20 per wager), returned $1560, P/L $160, ROI 11.4%.

Trifecta bets: 1/8, 12.5%, wagered $196 ($24 per wager), returned $1011.50, P/L $819.50, ROI 426%.

Totals: Wagered $1592, returned $2571.50, P/L $979.50, ROI 61.5%.

Talk about horse racing being a heart breaking game. Saturday, my 22/1 shot at Aqu finished 2nd by 1/2 length. Earlier in the week, a nice 7/1 shot at Aqu lost by a tiny nose.

[hurrikane]

Are you posting these picks somewhere or just reporting the outcomes after the races have run?

[hurrikane]

I think I found them king..thanks

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

Keep up the good work.

Jimmy

[kingfin66]

Any omissions are noted as are user error such as changing trifecta bets and watching the horse you de-selected win the race.

[hurrikane]

nice job by the way.

curious, when you say you 'expect' to end up at 16% and x ROI..basing it on your past perf , db, etc?

[kingfin66]

First of all, thank you.

I don't see where I said that I expect to be at 16%. That would be great. I'm trying for 10-15%. It's attainable, but difficult when posting picks ahead of time. Sometimes those 6/1 ML get bet down too far to play.

I've actually given some thought to starting a db. If I do, I would like to include some HM factors. The problem is that those types of factors have to be manually input, making it very time consuming. I may have to do a db the traditional way which would still be a-ok.

[Buckeye]

Yeah, how about some PRE-race selections. That would be more realistic to put it kindly.

[andicap]

Originally posted by Buckeye
Yeah, how about some PRE-race selections. That would be more realistic to put it kindly.

Are you even reading this board?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?threadid=16209

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by Buckeye
Yeah, how about some PRE-race selections. That would be more realistic to put it kindly.

Why don't you go pound some sand in a rathole you stupid idiot. Stay out of my thread if you can't keep from being an idiot.

[Buckeye]

I should have been more specific?

Ok then, winning selections.

Congratulations on the $6.50 winner.

Aqueduct - November 13th, 2004 - Race 4
Maiden Special Weight - For Thoroughbred Two Year Old (S ) Six Furlongs On The Dirt
Purse: $41,000
Value of Race: $41,000 1st $24,600, 2nd $8,200, 3rd $4,100, 4th $2,050, 5th $1,230, 6th $118, 7th $118, 8th $118, 9th $118, 10th $118, 11th $118, 12th $112
Weather: Clear Track: Muddy
Off at: 1:54 Start: Good for all

Pgm HorseName (Jockey) Wgt M/E PP SP 1/4 1/2 Str Fin Odds
12 Power Link (Bridgmohan, S.) 120 L 11 10 4-1/2 3-4 1/2 1-1/2 1-6 1/2 2.25*
4 Gold and Roses (Fragoso, P.) 120 L 4 4 1-Head 2-Head 2-2 1/2 2-4 3.60
5 Wild Vicar (Gryder, A.T.) 120 L b 5 7 6-Head 6-1/2 6-5 1/2 3-1 5.60
13 Jimmy the K (Bravo, J.) 120 L b 12 1 3-1 1/2 1-1/2 3-5 1/2 4-1 1/4 6.00
9 Eyes On Target (Soodeen, R.) 120 L f 8 2 5-2 5-1/2 4-1/2 5-4 1/4 16.30
3 Hercules On Top (Bejarano, R.) 120 L f 3 3 2-Head 4-1 5-Head 6-1 1/2 42.50
1 Fifteen Wall (Carrero, V.) 120 c 1 8 8-3 9-3 1/2 8-Head 7-Neck 12.30
2 First Expression (Prado, E.S.) 120 L 2 5 7-7 7-6 7-3 8-1/2 8.20
11 Lotsa Mojoe (Barria, A.) 120 L cf 10 9 11-10 10-2 1/2 10-6 9-Neck 45.50
10 A Wild Minute (Gomez, O.) 113 b 9 11 10-2 1/2 8-1/2 9-5 10-8 1/2 150.50
7 Final Valentine (Arroyo, Jr., N.) 120 L b 6 6 9-1 11-8 11-8 11-9 1/4 23.50
8 Honor Babe (Garcia, A.) 120 7 12 12 12 12 12 57.50
Fractional Times: 23.36, 47.50, 59.98, 1:13.04

Winner: Power Link - Dark Bay or Brown Gelding, March 13, 2002
Bred by Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman in NY
Pedigree: Successful Appeal - Linking , by Saint Ballado
Scratched Horses: Xtreme Speed, Sarah's Prospect


Pgm Horse Win Place Show Total WPS Pool: $401,811
12 Power Link 6.50 3.80 3.30
4 Gold and Roses 4.80 3.40
5 Wild Vicar 3.60


Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff Pool Carryover
$2 Pick 3 7-3-12 (3 correct) 679.00 56,183
$2 Exacta 12-4 26.60 385,499
$2 Quinella 4-12 14.60 37,802
$2 Trifecta 12-4-5 83.50 256,963

Pgm Comment
12 Power Link: hustled outside, 4 wide move turn, going away late, driving
4 Gold and Roses: speed outside, contested pace, second best
5 Wild Vicar: hustled along early, inside trip, no rally
13 Jimmy the K: speed 3 wide, contested pace, tired final furlong
9 Eyes On Target: speed outside, chased pace, tired stretch
3 Hercules On Top: speed inside, contested pace, tired after a half
1 Fifteen Wall: inside trip, no rally
2 First Expression: greenly inside, tired stretch
11 Lotsa Mojoe: had no rally
10 A Wild Minute: inside trip, tired
7 Final Valentine: no response when roused
8 Honor Babe: off slowly, greenly, tired
Footnotes
POWER LINK was hustled along outside, rallied four wide nearing the stretch, responded when roused and was going away late. GOLD AND ROSES contested the pace from the outside and continued on to be second best. WILD VICAR was hustled along early, raced inside and had no rally. JIMMY THE K contested the pace while three wide and tired in the final furlong. EYES ON TARGET chased the pace from the outside and tired in the stretch. HERCULES ON TOP contested the pace along the inside and tired after a half mile. FIFTEEN WALL raced inside and had no rally. FIRST EXPRESSION raced greenly along the inside and tired in the stretch. LOTSA MOJOE had no rally. A WILD MINUTE raced inside and tired. FINAL VALENTINE had no response when roused. HONOR BABE broke slowly, raced greenly and tired.


Owners: 12 - Broman, Sr., Mary and Chester, 4 -Henry C. Gregory, 5 - Harlingen Stable, 13 - Sorin Stables, 9 - Seven Furlong Farm, 3 - Peregrination Farm, 1 - Hardwicke Stable, 2 - Flying Zee Stable, 11 - Rea, Joseph, 10 - Candlin, John, Legal-Ease Farms, 7 -Albert Fried, Jr., 8 - Millstone Stable
Trainers: 12 -John C. Kimmel, 4 -Thomas M. Bush, 5 -John F. Dowd, 13 -Thomas M. Walsh, 9 -Juliane Brida, 3 -Robert Barbara, 1 -H. Allen Jerkens, 2 -Philip M. Serpe, 11 -Dominic G. Galluscio, 10 -John Candlin, 7 -Richard E. Schosberg, 8 -Steven T. Jerkens

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[hurrikane]

Ok,
how about Buck post some picks...that would be amusing.

King, you're right. you did say 10-15. I think that is too low to live with (the losing streaks could top 30 in a row) but I understand you it would be higher filtered by odds. When you post your picks just state off odds > 5 -1 or whatevery. Actually, you don't have to post shit up here...a lot of losers spend way to much time slamming people. My guess is they have no money left to bet with so here they sit.

db and HM? what is HM. If it is Pizzola's stuff that can be calced easily and put into a db. I have done so and cannot find anything profitable in the data. But that doens't mean it 's not there.

[kingfin66]

If you weren't so lazy (or is it just incompetence?) you would take the time to go back and find the other threads where I have posted selections. That almost daily for the past 2+ weeks now. By the way, I'll take the $6.50 winner. I will also take the $22 horse and everything in between. The money certainly won't be given back for the $1000 exacta. I really don't know what your trying to prove. One thing that you are demonstrating very well is that you are a total and complete asshole. Like you said, though, you aren't trying to win any popularity contests.

I think I will take Hurrikane's advice and not put any more selections on here. It is something I do because I love the game and like taking a few minutes to share. Jerks like you take the fun out of it, so I won't bother.

Good luck with your selections. From the few I have seen you post, you need all the help you can get.

Regards,
Kingfin66

[cj]

Just because one guy gives you a hard time, don't stop posting selections if you enjoy that. You've made some nice picks!