My Derby Pick, Can you beat him??

[FortuneHunter]

I would like to offer my Derby Pick.

My pick is Monarchos. I think one of the biggest advantages Monarchos has is home track advantage, and also his connections.

Monarchos has been at Churchill with trainer John T. Ward since the beginning of April. “He is settled and happy here” says Ward who last had derby starters in 1995. Ward called the “Wood Memorial” a perfect derby prep. The comment line was “Inside run; gamely”. Ward said this in the Blood Horse Friday Derby Notebook:

"I think he will move up a length or two off that (the Wood)," Ward said. "The difference (in the races) is there will be a lot of traffic to come around, to come though. That's where it turns into a riders race. It's up to Jorge (Chavez), and Jorge knows how to come through tight spots. "If you watched Monarchos train this morning (you saw) he will come through a hole. He will make a hole. If we had taken him to Louisiana (for the Louisiana Derby), it would have been an ugly picture at the 16th pole, because he was going through somewhere."

Monarchos had a very impressive workout on Fri 4/27, where the Blood Horse writer described Monarchos as “on the muscle”. He is scheduled to gallop up to the derby. Ward says: “His gallops will be early in the morning when the track is pretty much uniform and there aren't quite as many horses for Monarchos to mix it up with during his gallops. He is bright, aggressive and wants to mix it up with anybody that comes along, and he is going to get a chance."

Ward and jockey Jorge Chavez are in my opinion top connections. Chavez is riding the CD meet and has a 17% win rate this year. Chavez commands a lot of respect at my home circuit, which is NYRA.

Monarchos has had a start at Churchill 24Nov00CD where he finished 3rd.

Attached to this post is the early TruForm Worksheet for the Derby from www.handicappers-datamine.com which is our website. Monarchos has our top Speed Figure of 107.3 and has a Pace Rank of 6 (out of 17 entries). I think he has the ability to stay in touch with the early Pace and the jockey and aggressiveness to make a stretch-winning move.

Please note that Workouts from Sat 4/28 thru today are not in our Workout Figs. because they are not in the BRISnet data files as of this evening. Point Given and Congaree had impressive works on Saturday. These will be in the TruForm Workout Figs on Thurday.

It is also interesting to note that Monarchos has a BRIS Prime Power rating of 156.0 (1st).

Good Luck and enjoy the Race!, FH

[Lefty]

I'll bet on him or agin him depending on how he stacks up after I run the PP's every horse. Also, post time odds
are critical to me. I can't stand short prices.

[Dave Schwartz]

FH,

Like, Swope, I will make my decisions later. In fact, I probably won't look at the race until about an hour to post time.

In the meantime, here is my Derby Analysis:

http://www.horsestreet.com/freestuff/articles/KyDerby/2001/index.html

(This is a reprint from our newsletter, The Horse Street Player.)

If anyone is interested, I found an old analysis (1998) and put that up as well.

http://www.horsestreet.com/freestuff/articles/KyDerby/1998/index.html

[Druther]

I can do better than that, Dave. I won't look at the race until it goes live on the board.

And since CDSN doesn't want you to play their tracks unless you use TVG, I may not look at it period.

As far as I'm concened they can take the Kentucky Derby and run it at Sunland.

[Larry Hamilton]

Dave, a more execellent use of the structure of a data base and it's attending models and templates I have never seen. Excellent work. This example would have convinced me to subscibe, if I didn't already.

[FortuneHunter]

Lefty, eventhough the odds info isn't available, I thought maybe you could let us know which horse you think will win the Derby, considering the info currently available?

Dave, looked at your analysis, couldn't find any horses by name. I thought maybe you followed the derby scene a little and had a horse you liked to win the Derby? I guess not.

Druther, Larry, I guess we have no opinions here, either.

Maybe there is somebody out there with an opinion on who will win the Derby besides me?

Or maybe I am in the wrong place at the wrong time?

[Druther]

Fortune Hunter

Sorry, but I have no opinion. I handicap races, I don’t engage in pre-information predictions. If you’ll furnish me with the weather, post positions, advise me which horses will actually run and the odds I’ll be offered about 3 MTP, then I’ll give you my conclusion on whether there’s any value.

I’ll watch it on TV just like everyone else. It is the Kentucky Derby after all. But from a wagering prospect it’s no different than any other race. It has absolutely nothing to do with which horse I like – I don’t “like” any of them.

No value, no play. Other than that, I couldn’t care less which horse wins.

[hdcper]

Dave,

Just wanted to be one of the first to compliment you on the excellect Derby Analysis. Enjoyed reading every bit of it.

Your hard work is appreciated by this handicapper and I believe your ideas will improve anyone's success and return on investment.

Again, thanks for sharing,

Hdcper

[Dick Schmidt]

Be sure to take a look at Dave's article that he posted on his web site. It is typical of the outstanding information available in "The Horse Street Player", his new newsletter/magazine. I know that not everyone likes Dave's highly complex computer programs, but his publication is accessible to anyone.

Yeah, I have written an article or two for the mag, but since Dave doesn't actually PAY me for them, I feel that I can tout the "Player" without too much of a conflict of interest. Right now, without a doubt, it is the best value for the buck in horse racing. You owe it to yourself to check it out.

Dick

[Lefty]

FH, sorry but haven't looked at any pp's or compared any colt against another at this point. I'll run HSH prgm
using parameters set forth in the "Player" newsletter.
Don't mean this to sound like a commercial but that's how i'm gonna handle the Derby and if I can't get 4-1
on a viable ctr i'll pass. This looks like a most contentious
race from what i've seen of the "trials" so imagine i'll
get some odds.

[Druther]

Speaking of opinions about which horse will win the Kentucky Derby, has anyone received on of those mailers this year? You know – the type that claims their customers have been given the winner in 8 of the last 9 runnings, and that for $100 they’re prepared to release this year’s winner to a select few? They usually claim something like they have private clockers, etc. And as a bonus, they’ll throw in their Secret Spot Play for another race that day AND their “guaranteed” Super Duper Quadfecta.

I used to enjoy reading this fiction and I feel slighted this year, as none have yet found their way to my mailbox. Perhaps they’ve all migrated to the web?

Opinions used to be a dime a dozen. But I really miss the $50+ types.

[smf]

Druther posted>...I used to enjoy reading this fiction and I feel slighted this year, as none have yet found their way to my mailbox. Perhaps they’ve all migrated to the web?

Right on the mark, Druther! Amen.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Druther

>>
Sorry, but I have no opinion. I handicap races, I don’t engage in pre-information predictions. If you’ll furnish me with the weather, post positions, advise me which horses will actually run and the odds I’ll be offered about 3 MTP, then I’ll give you my conclusion on whether there’s any value.

I’ll watch it on TV just like everyone else. It is the Kentucky Derby after all. But from a wagering prospect it’s no different than any other race. It has absolutely nothing to do with which horse I like – I don’t “like” any of them.

No value, no play. Other than that, I couldn’t care less which horse wins.
>>

Geesh...you and I think so much alike on so many things, it's really scary. Maybe DNA tests are in order. ;)

Boxcar

[GR1@HTR]

Downloaded Bris PP. Monarchos looks tuff. Value play here for exotic looks to be the hard closing Jamaican Rum. If Keets gets an inside post watch out for him.

[Tuffmug]

I'm taking the front running horse with the FUNGUS infection (Millenium Wind). Figure he'll get a clear lead and no horse will get near him for fear of catching it.

[FortuneHunter]

The Derby Post Position Draw and ML Odds will be available tonight.

Maybe that will breathe some life into this sorry ass thread.

Jamacian Rum, Hmmm......

[FortuneHunter]

They keep showing Point Given's SA Derby race. I am starting to worry.... If that race wasn't run on the left coast where racing is second class, I would really be worried. He does have a nice race in the BC at CD...........

[ceejay]

My biggest problem with Point Given (aside from the short price) is the short 3yo campaign that he was on. He did also run well in the Champagne & Ky Cup Juv outside California.

[FortuneHunter]

I think the trickest thing to do is figure out which horse is ready to move forward, especially when you are asking the field to do something they have never done before, which for one thing is get 1 1/4 miles. That's why I like a race over the track which Point Given has had.

Who is primed to run thier best effort? The short 3YO campaign that Point Given has had doesn't bother me too much. PG seems to be a very profression race horse and I would rather be a little on the "fresh" side.

[jackman]

I think I will beat you with a horse that should run a BIG race.He has found his stride at CD,his works tells me that------------APV------------First.

[Dave Schwartz]

FH,

Why do you think this is a "sorry ass" thread? My guess would be that people will be posting their Derby guesses, uh, I mean picks, a little closer to show time.

My guesses will be here Saturday morning, when I look at the race.

[FortuneHunter]

Dave,

Wednesday night, Thursday night, Friday Night, Saturday Morning, I am not sure there is a difference.

What do you think will happen that will change your opinion of who will be the best horse on Saturday between now and then?

I will admit that Tuesday night was a bit early.

But please keep in mind my intention in starting this thread is to state an opinion on who we, as individuals, liked to win the derby and why.

This thread really has nothing to do with the odds or betting. If we forget about betting for this one horse race and just see it as a spectacle of man and horse against man and horse, which horse do you think will cross the finish line first?

I would like to here what each and everyone of you think, I really would.

[Lefty]

FH, that's an idealistic way to look at it. With 17 horses
entered and the jam that ensues it kinda renders that
idealistic vision moot. If it werea match race, 2 horses 2
men I would agree. It's a spectacle, one that we all look
foward to; but when it comes to betting I view it as just
another horse race and the goal is value.

[Tom]

Maybe I'm crazy, but I always handicap the winner.
Then, if I think the bet is worth it, I bet.
I don't bet horses I don't think will win just because the odds are high. If I don't think a horse can win, I don't care if it is 9-5, 7-2, or 50-1. A loser is a loser in my book. On the same token, if I think a horse will win easy and it is 7-5, I won't bet it -and if it wins, I don't care-there will be more than enough horse winning that I think will win at decent odds. I got a lot of years left in me (I hope!).
I could care less if Millenium Wind were 100-1, I don't give him any chance at all, so I wouldn't bet him. Iwouldn't bet Dollar Bill at 200-1, and I won't bet Balto Star at any price, 25-1, 50-1, 100-1-period.
I can pass races with no problem-I can go for days with no bets, then make 5 in a row. Whatever comes to me, I take. That is why I also use a lot of programs-I like new things and I have fun with them. Thorugh it all,
I win-every year, as long as I can remember. Not enough to be rich or quit my job, but enough to make it
well worth doing. The winner is me, not the program.
One year, at a Sartin sseminar at Saratoga, my new version of Synergism locked up my hand-held computer at the track. I had to erase it, quickly write a program for APV and third fractions, and using that plus PBS numbers, I won three out of seven-and made money.
Not what I planned with my new "Holy Grail" program, but with what I had to use at the time.
There is a lot of fun in this game aside from the betting-
there is satisfaction of predicting the early leader, guessing what the 2nd call time will be, watching the race play out just the way you called it-after all, it is a game, not a job (for me, anyway). And when the opportunity comes along, I enjoy the bet.
Good Luck on Derby Day....pour me another MJ
Tom

[PaceAdvantage]

Tom,

I have to disagree about just betting who you think the winner will be. Value is truly a worthy pursuit in this game, and I have found after much suffering that betting perceived value to be one of the very few ways to turn a profit (at least for me).

FH, right now my selections are Keats and Thunder Blitz.


==PA

[GR1@HTR]

Prelim Tri Ticket...

Balto Star/AP Valentine
Balto Star/AP Valentine/Point Given/Jamaican Rum
Balto Star/AP Valentine/Point Given/Jamaican Rum/Monarchos/Fifty Stars

$24

I've cashed the last 3 derbies by settling on the horse in the preliminaries that most viscerally impressed me.

This year that horse has been Balto Star.

So I'm going with him.

(PS...maybe i should tell you that I also lost the 10 derbies before that using the same criterion. But hey, I'm on a roll!!)

Mikekk

[Bobby]

I also think that Balto Star has a good shot. I can't imagine any of the other "speed" horses contesting Balto Star if he gets an early start. So if Balto can get a clear early lead, I think he will win it.

[Slider]

Originally posted by Tom
Maybe I'm crazy, but I always handicap the winner.
Then, if I think the bet is worth it, I bet.
I don't bet horses I don't think will win just because the odds are high. If I don't think a horse can win, I don't care if it is 9-5, 7-2, or 50-1. A loser is a loser in my book. On the same token, if I think a horse will win easy and it is 7-5, I won't bet it -and if it wins, I don't care-there will be more than enough horse winning that I think will win at decent odds. I got a lot of years left in me (I hope!).
I could care less if Millenium Wind were 100-1, I don't give him any chance at all, so I wouldn't bet him. Iwouldn't bet Dollar Bill at 200-1, and I won't bet Balto Star at any price, 25-1, 50-1, 100-1-period.
I can pass races with no problem-I can go for days with no bets, then make 5 in a row. Whatever comes to me, I take. That is why I also use a lot of programs-I like new things and I have fun with them. Thorugh it all,
I win-every year, as long as I can remember. Not enough to be rich or quit my job, but enough to make it
well worth doing. The winner is me, not the program.
One year, at a Sartin sseminar at Saratoga, my new version of Synergism locked up my hand-held computer at the track. I had to erase it, quickly write a program for APV and third fractions, and using that plus PBS numbers, I won three out of seven-and made money.
Not what I planned with my new "Holy Grail" program, but with what I had to use at the time.
There is a lot of fun in this game aside from the betting-
there is satisfaction of predicting the early leader, guessing what the 2nd call time will be, watching the race play out just the way you called it-after all, it is a game, not a job (for me, anyway). And when the opportunity comes along, I enjoy the bet.
Good Luck on Derby Day....pour me another MJ
Tom

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Excellent post Tom.
I agree. It is a game, and enjoyment is the name of the game. Most of those needing money from this game would be better of selling fast food because the hourly pay is much larger at the fast food places. There are very few who can make a living from betting profits alone.
As for the derby I have no idea. Will look about 10 minutes till post, but will not bet into a 17 horse field. Many gas tanks will go dry with the push for position and many will be blocked behind stopping horses.

Slider

[FortuneHunter]

I have to agree with Tom. In fact, I think we all agree with Tom, I think.

Odds play no part in my handicapping a race, Derby or otherwise.

Odds only play a part in if and how I invest in the race.

Does anybody do it different?

This thread was intended to be who will win not who or how you will bet. That is best left to about 5 MTP. But I appreciate anyone who takes a stand on a wager.

P.S. We have been studying a method that takes individual race odds out of the betting equation and instead use a method based on Average Odds, Hit%, and Losing Streak statitics. But that discussion is for another time and place.

[andicap]

I see nothing wrong with asking who we think will win the Derby. Why has everyone gotten so serious about this. Surely you have opinions on the horses even if you're not sure who will win. Of course your opinion could change by Saturday. It could rain, someone could be scratched changing the pace picture, a horse could step on a needle in the paddock.
But this is the biggest race of the year. Why not have some fun and try doping out the winner? No one will think lesser of you as a player if you don't win this race. Andy Beyer lost about 20 years in a row and still kept picking....

So here's my opinion as of Friday morning:

Top contenders (in no particular order)
no surprises here:

Monarchos. consistent hard-hitting. good late energy figs and fits a lot of Dave's criteria.

Point Given -- Nice figs as well, but overrated a bit. Last race was excellent but seemed to have perfect trip set up for him. Still he's shown he can chlose if he has to on this track.

Dollar Bill (I know he gets into trouble a lot, but he's got competitive late energy figs. Like him a lot for 2nd-3rd)

-----
Those with a shot...

Congaree -- too inexperienced and looks likely to bounce off the Wood. Not great finishing kick. Will be overbet. Toss.

Millenium Wind -- likely to bounce to Pluto, and won't get the clear lead had in the Blue Grass. Still, if he repeats last showing he can make it interesting but only at a big price.

Rank outsiders

Ap Valentine. Bit too slow for these, but improving and could be in the mix if race falls apart.

Balto Star --- too much other speed (Keats) and if he goes out fast will likely fade in stretch.

Thunder Blitz -- Best longshot outsider with a shot at getting in the money. Moved up bigtime in last and may have time to recover. Training well.


On betting, I vehemently disagree with Tom. Nobody knows for sure who will win. Handicapping means that you predict which horses have the best chances. It's not a pre-determind outcome. If Point Given is 6-5 and Monarchos is 4-1, even if I think PG is a slightly better horse, I'm unloading on Monarchos. And if Dollar Bill is 10-1, I'll bet him even if he is my 3rd choice because I think he has a 15% chance of winning (a very very rough estimation).
And if PG is 7-5, Monarchos is 3-1 and Dollar Bill 6-1 I won't bet because it would be gambling.

Andicap.

[Dave Schwartz]

Okay, so here are my final picks for the Derby:

Millennium Wind
Keats
Congaree


Millenium Wind is the most likely winner in my opinion.

Since the pbulic is rarely wrong to a huge degree, I would like to see Keats bet down a bit.

My favorite Exactas would be to include AP Valentine and Balto Star in the #2 position.

Thus:

Millennium Wind
Keats
Congaree

bet to:

Millennium Wind
Keats
Congaree
AP Valentine
Balto Star

A $24 ticket.


If you want to see how I came up with this:

http://www.horsestreet.com/ubb/Forum4/HTML/000328.html


Good luck!

[Lefty]

Usually there are several contenders that can win any given race. The trick is to get value. Some, like Tom, hold
out for value on their top horse or no bet. Others, like
me, will look for best value among top 3-4 ctrs. I often
bet 2 horses a race. Still others bet horse they think will
win regardless of odds. That's what makes horse racing.
Hey, you heard it here first; maybe not.

[Tuffmug]

1st Point Given (led in hand, ridden out in last, even then he had more late gas than others have ever shown)
2nd AP Valentine (Zito's been waiting in the tall grass for this race, last was nothing but a galloping prep for this one)
3rd Balto Star (will break hearts of other speed and then get caught late)


Dave,

KEATS! What have you been drinking? I could use some of it after a hard day at the races!<G>

[RValentine]

TuffMug,

I'm with you. Although Keats sure fits according to HSH, I just can't see it.

Although Dave did say that the horse needs to fit for odds. And according to the post on our BBS that would mean "under 9-1." If Keats is under 9-1 I'll be amazed.

Personally, I like Point Given and Millenium Wind.


Rich Valentine

[Rick Ransom]

Something that usually works in races like this with a lot of entries is to back wheel the favorite in the exacta. Works best if the favorite is short priced. Usually all of the amateur money is on the favorite to finish first, not second.

[Rick Ransom]

Now that I've looked at the PPs, my guess is:

1. Millenium Wind

2. Congaree

3. Point Given

Personally, I'd rather be betting a Maiden Claiming race at Turf Paradise than this. Tough race to call anytime. My opinion has usually been better about the Belmont, which I've done quite well at over the years. People who never go to any other races all year ask you about this one though, so you have to give them an opinion.

[PaceAdvantage]

Obviously nobody noticed that Keats is my top pick...LOL


==PA

[GR1@HTR]

If Keats had the Balto's post position then I might have Keats on top instead. Will be interesting to see how the early ones break and what kinda fight we are going to have on the 1st turn. AP Valentine made a monsterous close in his race two back. Hoping that he duplicates that effort tomorrow. If so, good chance for that dog to finish ITM. I have limited data that shows that strong favorites do very poorly (Win 16% with -54% ROI) with such a bad outside post. Hence PG will really have the odds stacked against him to finish 1st. He sure is tuff though...Having said all that, might have to try for a boxcar tri/super ticket without Monarchos and Point Given....then again, maybe not...

[PaceAdvantage]

Actually, I will be betting both Keats and Thunder Blitz to win. I think I like Thunder Blitz better, only because he isn't an early type horse. If either one wins, I'll be quite happy.


==PA

[Tuffmug]

PA and Dave,

I think Keats selectiion is a good example of my entrails of chickens analogy. You both have probably feed your computers with a bogus track variant which has inflated Keats performance out of all proportion to its true quality. The Lex field was really poor one. These were the remnants of the Derby chase. Keat beat dregs, not champs, and did so in unenspiring time and fractions. BEWARE THE BOGUS VARIANT! Garbage in = garbage out!

[RValentine]

Tuffmug,

LOL - Where I come from it is considered good form to wait until the race is over before we start ridiculing them for their stupid picks. Otherwise, every once in awhile you get to eat a much larger helping of crow than your normal portion.

Rich Valentine

[PaceAdvantage]

Those who were saying they liked Charismatic were probably enduring the same beating before the Derby 2 years ago....LOL

In any event, I'm just saying who I like based on my program's analysis. Does it win every race? Certainly not. Does one HAVE to in order to show a profit at the end of the year?

==PA

[Tuffmug]

NO GUTS NO GLORY! Had to do it because I would be accused of redboarding if I made these observations after the fact. If I'm wrong they can trash me good but e.mal and discussion board trash talk has never hurt me and never will!

Point I've been trying to make is that most of the data and derived numbers we use to handicap with are defective for one reason or another. Loaded with bad assumptions,
Computers aren't capable of being skeptical of what is fed them but the programmer and handicapper better be!

Originally posted by Tuffmug:

>>
NO GUTS NO GLORY! Had to do it because I would be accused of redboarding if I made these observations after the fact. If I'm wrong they can trash me good but e.mal and discussion board trash talk has never hurt me and never will!

Point I've been trying to make is that most of the data and derived numbers we use to handicap with are defective for one reason or another. Loaded with bad assumptions,
Computers aren't capable of being skeptical of what is fed them but the programmer and handicapper better be! >>

Defective numbers? Sure. You won't get an argument from me. Even the best, most pricey products out there are "defective". But what does this mean? We ignore the numbers altogether? Toss the baby out with the water? What? Or does the intelligent , experienced, savvy selector simply excercise prudence and caution when interpreting the numbers and trying to decipher what they mean? And maybe it also means that a wise player will additionally be using and interpreting other important factors that aren't as numbers-sensitive? But even then, one must rely on someone's numbers, whether these figs have to do with beaten lengths, final times, stats, race distances, workout times, workout distances, etc., etc. The inescapable fact is: "Numbers" of one stripe or another are central to the handicapping process. You can't make intelligent, informed decisions apart from working with someone's numbers in various respects.

But all these "deficiencies" are precisely what make the price factor so highly important during the selection process. They also make the game anything but a scientific endeavor.

Boxcar

[FortuneHunter]

Another "point" to consider is how the horse is going to run today compared to his numbers he has run previously.
I don't believe that the trainer always wants his horse to run to his numbers every race. Is a race a training race wher he wants a particular lesson taught, or has the trainer pointed to the race for the horse to give his best effort?
Maybe connections know that this game runs on numbers and poor numbers last time out means better prices this time out?
Is a horse in the Derby because he "earned a shot", because the connections want to be part of the spectacle.
Or has he been trained to peak today?

[FortuneHunter]

Speaking of figures and numbers, we cordially invite you to our (free) website and see our Worksheets and Selections. Both the Churchill Racecard (Race 8) and the Aqueduct Racecard (Race 11) have the Kentucky Derby analysis.

http://www.handicappers-datamine.com/cgi-bin/UltraBoard/UltraBoard.cgi?action=Category&CID=1&SID=9010

Your friends at Handicappers DataMine.

[Tom]

BEWARE THE BOGUS VARIANT.
I guess I would have to say all variants are bogus.
Every variant changes reality into what someone believes is reality. Woulda, coulda, shoulda......
Fact is. even what we see in the racing form is not always reality due to errrors in timing (Flori-duh), errors in transposing numbers, errors in rounding off.....
And how many beraten lengthd are accurate? And if they are accurate, how much is one worth?
Sartin used to tell us that if you wanted to cacth every sprinter stretching out then don't adjsut the sprint-to-route and he will stand out. Sounds pretty stupid until you catch a 30-1 shot stretching out and winning that you have with your bogus variant.
So if the top 5 horses today are the ones I threw out last month, so be it-tomorrow, I will hit something with own bogu version of reality. It's not the pluses or the minuses that count, but how they add up at the end.
That said, I think Point Given is the one. I watched his BD stretch run on tape this morning and I was reminded of the great Forego. I was also reminded of Forego by Arrazi a few years ago. PG has sioonce come back and doen it again. And again. I think PG is something special. I am geting on this onw's bandwagon now becasue I think he is going to featured on TV for a lot a races comming up.
This one one-could-go-all-the- way!!!
Gotta run-gotta go get ice, lots of ice, and lemons, and mint, and sugar, and aspirin.
Tom

[Que]

Despite Monarcho's being my top ranked horse, and he's a good price too, I'm going with the long shot Thunder Blitz. Although Thunder Blitz may be a tad slow, he seems to be peaking at the right time--not to mention he's a very good price. With regard to Monarcho's, my gut feeling is telling me he won't run today--but at 10-1 or higher he's probably worth the risk. With regards to the others--all I can say is that there are some very, very fast horses in this field. Good luck to all.

Que.

[PaceAdvantage]

Que, great minds think alike....LOL

[FortuneHunter]

Que,

Here are the fastest winning times for 1 1/8 miles in this bunch:

Express_Tour_____24Mar01*NDR3_Fast___Time:_1:47.0_ _No BRIS Fig
Balto_Star _______24Mar01TPR10__Fast___Time:_1:47.1__BRIS Speed Fig_112
Point_Given______07Apr01SaxR5__Wfast__Time:_1:47.3 __BRIS Speed Fig_109
Congaree________14Apr01AquR10_Fast___Time:_1:47.4_ _BRIS Speed Fig_111
Millennium_Wind _14Apr01KeeR9__Fast___Time:_1:48.1__BRIS Speed Fig_115
Thunder_Blitz____07Apr01HiaR11__Fast___Time:_1:48. 1__BRIS Speed Fig_103
Balto_Star _______14Apr01OpxR9__Sloppy_Time:_1:49.0__BRIS Speed Fig_103
Monarchos_______10Mar01GpxR11_Fast___Time:_1:49.4_ _BRIS Speed Fig_108

Express Tour is the unknown and has to be given consideration. He set a track record and the “Prince” is in town. Unorthodox training of these connections bothers me, they did bring the Jock D. Flores to UAE for the ride.

This is also an example where you can see that the BRISnet Speed Figs are based on more than just finish times as shown above

[Dave Schwartz]

So, as we approach post time (about 20 minutes) I must amend my picks as I do not believe the winner will be higher than 8-1.

Congaree
Balto Star
Point Given
Dollar Bill

If Point Given goes off below 9/5 I will not consider a play on him and will move Dollar Bill up.

Keats becomes a crazy play, as the public is not THAT far off.

Congaree is my final pick here.

[PaceAdvantage]

Congrats to FH and all who had Monarchos!! You guys earned it!!


==PA

[Dave Schwartz]

FH & PA,

Nice call.

[PaceAdvantage]

Dave,

I didn't have Monarchos....but thanks anyway....LOL

[Tom]

I had him, but unfortunately I had the dual Q's too, so that takes away from the score. I gotta quit them exactas.
I am glad that Invisable Ink did so well, though...he was a nice story with the buttermilk and all. I can see him doing a "Got Milk?" ad.
Lots of horses ran dynamite 1m8th races today. Too bad it was 1m4.
Oh well, off to Mountaineer- back to earth for a while.
It's been fun.
Tom

[Dave Schwartz]

TuffMug,

You can laugh now. <G>

[RValentine]

Dave,

<<TuffMug,

You can laugh now. <G>>>

LOL - You beat me to it. I was going to say that.

Instead I'll say, "Since you posted your 20 minutes to post update, do you want to add a 10-minutes-after set of picks?" <G>

[Rick Ransom]

Congratulations to whoever actually bet Monarchos... hard to tell. My selection was bad as usual. I do remember being impressed by the fact that Monarchos had 2-3 good speed figures instead of just one. But I don't normally think that is all that significant with these young 3YOs. Maybe consistency is a valid factor after all though.

[so.cal.fan]

Fortune Hunter:
Congrats on a great call!
I just now read these threads! Damn it. Over an hour after watching your horse win the Derby.
Your analysis of the training was right on.

[smf]

Something tells me that an inordinate amount of winning derby tix were cashed in Louisiana. More than half of the contestants picked Monarchos (each were given 2 choices for the win).

http://www.nola.com/forums/startinggate/

Have to scroll down to post 1529 for the pix. Good 'cappin guys!

[Tuffmug]

Dave and RValentine,

I only laugh when I CASH!

Unfortunately, wasn't able to book a bet on Keats to come in 16th. The bets I did make are now in the rubbish of my local betting emporium!

Congrats to Fortunehunter and Que and Kingmambo on thier winning bets.

[andicap]

Hit a nice WPS bet, but lost the exacta. Here's what a dumb bettor I am. I put a few Point Given exactas in there with some longshots including Invisible Ink, but did I use Ink with my choice, Monarchos, nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

Monarchos was not necessarily my "top choice." I thought Point Given was probably a shade better, but why bet your top choice when the odds are so disparete? That's value betting. I just think it's silly to only bet your top choice even when your 2nd or even third choices are such legitimate overlays.


andicap.