Say there, Bruddah

[so.cal.fan]

Have you seen any good three year olds down South?
We're still looking around here.
In regards to you past thread, Throw Outs:
A good friend of mine and great handicapper (the guy wins),
answered this question:
"Horses who ran a bad race last time out!"
There are just very few excuses that hold up, trouble included.
My pal says, sure, he misses a few winners, but gets off many more losers.
His theory is that a bad race is due to something bad, 90% of the time.
Either physical or mental problem.

Good Luck,
Bruddah, may most of your tickets be good ones!

[Bruddah]

Looks like a good one shipped to Frankel's barn from Oaklawn. I read in Feb. where he bought the colt and thought I might need to watch this one(Megla D'Oro?). Put him in my stable mail but considered Siphonic too tough and it too much to ask of the horse. Especially, having just broke his maiden and now compete with those heavy heads. DUH?

His old trainer (David Vance) said he didn't regret the sale because the horse had tons of ability. Furthermore, the horse couldn't have been sold for the famous "undisclosed price" without his approval. His portion of the sale must of been a whopper to have that attitude now. lol!

Surely, this colt will bounce in his next race. He has had two straight Beyers over 100. His maiden and a Grade I. Now, that is an accomplisment for any horse. If I were Frankel, I would run him in the Lexington and face most of the Eastern heavy heads on Derby Day. Most of the Eastern best seem to be going to the Blue Grass and Woodward. Those two races should sort out a few more contenders.

Overall, I think this might be a wide open Derby for betting. No clear favorite, even if Johannesburg comes. How about the Santa Anita Derby? What's your take on it this year?

[andicap]

Bruddah, I think you must have meant the Wood Memorial, not the Woodward, which is run at Belmont in Sept. for older horses.
These have to be the worst 3 yr olds I've seen in years -- I know they say that every year, but look at the Beyers...I mean no one's really cracked 105 at a decent distance yet.
And horses with the most ability are likely to have trouble running 10f. There are a lot of good looking Preakness horses out there.
Since the winner of the Derby rarely wins the Wood, Blue Grass or Santa Anity Derby, I don't know how much these races will show. Except, we could get a Charismatic scenario where someone comes on late and gets good at the right time. That's what I'm going to look for.

The Wood winner rarely does well in Ky. because Aqueduct places a premium on early speed in that race. The Blue Grass winner will often bounce off that race.

[Observer]

Times are a changin'. Fusaichi Pegasus took the 2000 Wood Memorial before winning the Derby. Red Bullet and Aptitude ran 1-2 in the Gotham, then 2-3 behind Pegasus in the Wood. Bullet skipped the Derby, and Aptitude ran second at Churchill. Bullet came back for the Preakness and won, with Pegasus second. Aptitude, who skipped the Preakness, was the only one of the three to go on to the Belmont, where he checked in second behind Commendable.

Last year, Congaree won the Wood Memorial over Monarchos, who ran second. Monarchos turned the tables in the Derby for the win while Congaree checked in third. Congaree then picked up third in the Preakness and skipped the Belmont. Monarchos finished off the board at Pimlico, and struggled home third in the Belmont.

[Mike P]

Hey So.cal.fan,

What does your friend consider to be a "bad race last race"?

Mike

[andicap]

Originally posted by Observer
Times are a changin'. Fusaichi Pegasus took the 2000 Wood Memorial before winning the Derby. Red Bullet and Aptitude ran 1-2 in the Gotham, then 2-3 behind Pegasus in the Wood. Bullet skipped the Derby, and Aptitude ran second at Churchill. Bullet came back for the Preakness and won, with Pegasus second. Aptitude, who skipped the Preakness, was the only one of the three to go on to the Belmont, where he checked in second behind Commendable.

Last year, Congaree won the Wood Memorial over Monarchos, who ran second. Monarchos turned the tables in the Derby for the win while Congaree checked in third. Congaree then picked up third in the Preakness and skipped the Belmont. Monarchos finished off the board at Pimlico, and struggled home third in the Belmont.

Let's wait and see. Congaree won the Wood, but never won anything else. Red Bullet won the Preakness, a race as different to the Derby as the the shorter Florida preps. Finishing second ain't winning. Pegasus was obviously a superior horse until he got hurt and Congaree won the Wood for all the reasons I posted -- he's a speed horse. Speed horses do well at Pimlico.
The Wood and the Preakness are a good match because both emphasize speed and there is enough time between those races for a strong Wood performer to recover.

[so.cal.fan]

Mike P.
He watches races live and on tapes. Obviously if a horse just never runs a step during the race, it is a bad race.
He takes it a step futher, he judges how they were running.
If he thinks they had every shot and just backed up and regressed, well....I guess that was a bad race.
His theory is that they USUALLY won't run any better the next time, and it is more prudent to wait until they regain form.
Now, we are talking about Santa Anita, Hollywood Park and Del Mar.
I'm sure minor tracks and fairs may be different, I don't know, because I am not familiar with them.
Myself, being a bit lazy, sort of just judge it on the p.p.'s and maybe if I am really interested, the charts.
When a Beyer number drops much lower than I expect it to, I consider it a bad race. Of course this is very obvious. However, we see horses everyday at Santa Anita who ran bad last out, and people still "forgive" them, especially if they got in trouble, and they lose..............and the interesting thing about this is that they don't always look bad in the paddock, body wise, but usually show some negative "mental attitude" signs and they-----lose.

[andicap]

This is an interesting string, Mike P. because most of the handicapping copy these days is based on the idea that the public does NOT ignore a bad last race, that the public is last-race fixated and thus overlays are available for finding reasons to throw out those races.
I would agree with you -- that people are more sophisticated than they were 15 years ago and wise to the fact that there could be reasons behind 1 bad race, -- trip, class, surface, distance, etc. I don't think you can find that much value anymore by throwing out 1 bad race unless there seemed to be absolutely no reason for it in the PPs.

[Observer]

Originally posted by andicap


Congaree won the Wood, but never won anything else.

That's not true. After winning the 2001 Wood, Congaree ran third in both the Derby and Preakness, then won the GI Swaps before running third in the Jim Dandy. He's been sidelined since.

As for 2000 Wood runner-up Red Bullet, he had no chance at winning the Derby because he didn't even go to Churchill. They skipped and went straight to winning the Preakness. His connections always claimed he needed extra time between his starts. After the Preakness, he skipped the Belmont.

Regarding the "superior" Fusaichi Pegasus, some would argue that maybe he was extremely over-hyped. The only race he ever won after the Wood-Derby double was the Jerome, where he had everone believing in him again, only to disappoint big time when a dull sixth in the BC Classic. After a stunning win at Churchill, Fusaichi Pegasus was no match for Red Bullet in the Preakness. He disappeared from sight after being pointed toward the Belmont, though he skipped that race.

My point simply was that the NY preps have had a major impact on the Triple Crown races the past couple of years, and that maybe these races should not be dismissed as purely a speed favoring track with no worthy outcome. Over the years, it has been acceptable for horses to lose their final preps, but that doesn't neccessarily mean the track played against them. It could simply mean the trainer's don't want to have them primed for the wrong day, as McGaughey said prior to this year's Gotham with Saarland, and as Ward said last year prior to Monarchos running second in the Wood Memorial.

[cj]

I seem to recall Captain Bodgit winning the Wood in 97 and only losing by a nostril and a head in the Derby and Preakness...he was definitely a major Triple Crown player.

CJ