NFL Week 9

[betchatoo]

Try to get off being stuck at .500 with this weeks picks

Pittsburgh +1 over Philly
Eagles are 4-13 when favored by 3 or more against AFC. Pittsburgh is 15-4 against top foes (.700 or better) at home). Add this to Philly allowing 4.8 a rush and you've got a good set-up for a home dog

Washington +3.5 over Detroit
Redskins have a top defense, are 5-0 last 5 as road dogs and 8-2 against non-division NFC opponents. Detroit has played better on the road than at home and have still yet to out stat a single opponent

San Diego -6 over New Orleans
Marty Schottenheimer is my early candidate for coach of the year. He has the Chargers "charged up". Now they're facing a banged up defense that allows 4.7 yds. per rush. Not a good sign for the Saints

[Valuist]

4-4 last week after stupidly adding the Miami pick for Monday Night. That team cannot be trusted. They looked like they completely laid down.

TAMPA +3---KC has scored a million pts the last 2 weeks at home but now faces a tough defense on the road. Griese is showing signs of life in Tampa.

Chicago +9---The Bears aren't good but nobody blows them out. They've given up over 20 pts only once this year. The NYG should win, but this is a bit too much for them to lay, IMO.

ST LOUIS +1.5--I'm not a huge Rams fan, but I love to go against teams who've just had a win streak come to an end. And NE just had the longest streak ever end. Toss in no Dillon and no Ty Law and this make it two in a row in reverse.

[betchatoo]

Valuist.
I have discovered over the weeks that I value your judgement and am generally inclined the same way you are in games. What I find interesting is that we never seem to select the same games as keys. I assume it is a difference in handicapping styles.

My handicapping generally starts with a statistical match-up. I look at offense versus defense and see if there are any mismatches that could give me the edge. If I see one I delve deeper to check out match ups in pass vs pass-defense, special teams, etc.

Next I check out injuries. Is there an injury or series of injuries that could effect how the game will be played.

After that, I check out situational handicapping. How does this team, with this coach, traditionally fare in this situation?

Finally I look for mental or emotional edge. Is this a revenge game? Is one team due to suffer a letdown? Is a team on the rise and likely to keep moving forward?

If you are willing to share, I'd love to know how you reach your selections

[Valuist]

In the NFL, I'm a fundamental handicapper. I make a spreadsheet with numerous columns: rush yards per game, avg per carry, pass yds/game, QB efficiency rating, turnovers and turnovers forced, and then columns for each of those stats on the defensive side. I also have a notebook with a page for each team. I like seeing game by game stats, as opposed to composite numbers. You can really see when teams are getting better in one area, or worse. I also listen to a few handicapping shows out of Vegas: The Vegas Sportswire, Larry Grossman, and the Stardust line. I tend to look toward the dog first, because that's usually where the value is.

I don't bother with the colleges. I've never been good at betting college football or baseketball and I can't figure out what 20 year old kids will do one week to the next. I also think there's more dumb money that bets the NFL than any other sport. Squares/public bettors love to bet a ton of favorites, offensive minded teams, and overs.

I may add your Steelers play. I just heard Phil Steele's analysis on the game and he likes Pittsburgh.

[Valuist]

As for situational handicapping, I do like to look at the schedule and the coaches record in certain situations. Some coaches (the better ones) always put more emphasis on divisional games; other clueless coaches like Wannstedt treat all games the same. I find emotional letdowns difficult to predict in the NFL; conventional thinking is that the Steelers will let down this week. But these aren't college kids; these are pros getting paid big money. I also think its rare to see a NFL team give up before the final week (Raiders notwithstanding this season). As long as there's jobs to be won and big contracts to be earned, you can figure 98% of them are going all out.

[andicap]

From someone who does none of that stuff and just goes from the gut


Cincy +1 over Dallas. Cincy has weak run defense. Dallas can't run. Cincy at home, looks to be an improving team. Dallas stinks.

Texans +5.5 at Denver. Yes, Denver at home. But Houston is underrated and improving and Carr is playing great. I'll take the points and figure it will be a close game.

Cleveland + 6 at Balt. Only if Jamal Lewis is out another game. If he plays, this bet is off. Balt offense should NEVER get 6 points although its defense might score 2 TDs.

S.D -- -6 over Saints. At home. Hate east coast teams when travel to West Coast. S.D. can score -- Brees is playing like a man who is about to lose his job.

Rams +1.5. Always tough at home and Pats moving two starting CBs on the road in the dome and are still on a downer after streak ends. Rams not great on defense, but should score enough here to win.

I agree Bears +9 looks like a big spot, but with rookie QB against opportunistic Giants defense, there could be lots of turnovers and a run-up score.

I wouldn't touch KC-Tampa. Chiefs have found their offense and Tampa Bay is a very weak team, but looks like a trap and never like to give points with the Chiefs on the road.

I disagree on the Skins, but that is an interesting match up considering in years past the Lions have been excellent at home. Redskins aren't very good and Lions are improving (beating a good Giants team), so I would lean toward Lions here, but I'll sit it out as it should be close.

[SAL]

Miami -3 vs Arizona-This is the Cards second cross country road trip in as many weeks. Arizona is already working on a 17 game losing streak on the road, and have yet to beat Miami (0-8). Despite their Monday nite disaster I like them to beat a team that depends on the run and sucks on the road.


Cleveland +6 vs Baltimore-Cleveland is coming off a needed bye-week and facing Baltimore after a hard-fought game against Philly. Cleveland already beat Baltimore at home earlier this season, and has improved since then with some key players returning from injuries. Jamal Lewis returns for the Ravens, but may have lost a little sharpness with the layoff. I like Cleveland to keep it close if not win outright.

Cincinnati pick vs Dallas-The Parcells led Cowboys continues to be overvalued by bettors this season. They got a win last week thanks to Detroit self-destructing with penalties last weekend. The Bengals aren't a good team either, but I think they can certainly handle Dallas at home.

[Skanoochies]

I like K.C to cover. With Allstot out and Galloway and Jurevicius doubtful, can`t see T.B. scoring too much.

Agree with Chicago. Think 9 is too much against this def.

Like Balt.to cover. Lost in Cleve first game of the year. Don`t think they will this time.

Side note. I think Miami ready to implode. Think players may have given up on Wanstadt.(sp?) Would either fade or just watch for the rest of the year.:D

[betchatoo]

Good week. Went 3-0 to bring my record to 12-9. Better, I'm 11-4 over the last 4 weeks after starting 1-5.

Not sure what to think of Monday night game. With Moss out Cullpepper can't be as effective, but I hate backing a defense that's performed liked Indy. I'll pass

[Valuist]

Betchatoo-

Good week for you at 3-0. I went 2-1 and I feel stupid for playing an overrated public team like St. Louis, who is average, IMO. Haven't played tonight. The public play is the OVER, and I'm considering going under here. With Moss out, Minnesota plays much more conservatively. They also are getting Onterrio Smith back and Michael Bennett is back so I look for them to run the ball more which will eat the clock. But both defenses are not very good so I'm probably going to pass.

[SAL]

Nice cappin Betchatoo & Valuist-

I bet every game you guys posted except the Rams. When I checked the line it was New England +3. Couldn't resist. Belichick is the best coach in the NFL. Period. Troy Brown on defense? Fake field goal? Great calls.

If Miami stops Arizona with less than 2 minutes to go, and if Jeff Garcia converts the TD instead of the pick, I would have had a spectacular weekend.

[Valuist]

Sal-

Good point on the coaches. The best coach in the NFL going up against one of the 2 or 3 worst coaches in the league.

I may lay the 7 with the Colts tonight. I just don't think the Vikings are the same team without Moss. He changes the entire defensive strategy.

[betchatoo]

Originally posted by SAL
Nice cappin Betchatoo & Valuist-

I bet every game you guys posted except the Rams. When I checked the line it was New England +3. Couldn't resist. Belichick is the best coach in the NFL. Period. Troy Brown on defense? Fake field goal? Great calls.

If Miami stops Arizona with less than 2 minutes to go, and if Jeff Garcia converts the TD instead of the pick, I would have had a spectacular weekend.

I often wonder at the coaching in the NFL. Last years playo-offs proved to me that Mike Martz does not belong as a head coach. And yesterday, I thought Cleveland's use of the play clock and waste of timeouts in the last 4 minutes was ludicrous. Plus, while the receiver should have made the catch on that last pass anyhow, Ray Lewis got away with mugging him

[Valuist]

Definitely adding INDY -7.

The more I look at this one, the more I like it.