Pedigree Handicapping

[cj]

New book from DRF, with a sample chapter available, by Lauren Stich.

http://store.drf.com/acb/showdetl.cfm?&DID=7&Product_ID=10728&CATID=18&objectgroup_ID=460&af_id=39

[Buddha]

i noticed it a week or two ago and it said that it wasnt out yet. i might have to buy it and see what it is like. i will let everyone know once i do, or if anyone else reads it before me they can do likewise

[cj]

From reading this first sample chapter, I think I'll save the $14, doesn't look very good to me.

[CapperLou]

Hey CJ:

I agree with you!!! I have enough challenges with what I'm doing now---I'm not going Stich's route--no time--probably not profitable anyway. Wish her luck with her book though.

All the best,

CapperLou

[Tee]

Maybe I should write a book?:)

[midnight]

Stich is pretty spot-on about pedigree. The problem with pedigree handicapping is that it's been so beaten to death that it's overbet nowadays imho.

[cj]

Reading the first chapter, she goes over some example races, and never really tells you why she landed on the horse that won, which was usually her selection. Of course she had positive things to say about those horses, but she also did about others in the race and never really said why she chose the winner over the other contenders. Also, PPs would have been nice. I really don't want to hear about pedigree for horses that have run a few times at the same distance and on the same surface as today's race.

[Tee]

Originally posted by midnight
The problem with pedigree handicapping is that it's been so beaten to death that it's overbet nowadays imho.

Why do I keep getting prices on 1st time turfers, 1st time routers, 1st time runners etc?

Overbet does equate to winners imho.

For example,

Getting in on the ground floor of a hot sire with 1st time starters leads to good prices. I had much luck with Tactical Cat 1sters this summer.

Finding potential ability(instead of demonstrated ability) in runners that are stretching out for the 1st time or trying a different surface for the first time also leads to nice prices.

To me that is what pedigree handicapping is all about.

Maybe that's just me?

[andicap]

For what it's worth Stich has a good rep.

About 10 years ago I was visiting with a guy (named withhold to protect his privacy) from the old Prodigy board, a West Coaster with a great knowledge of breeding but a pretty acerbic attitude toward many things in racing.
He termed some of Mike Helm's stuff (not his handicapping books but the narratives) inaccurate and had other rough things to say about known authors and racing people.
He was a well-liked and respected figure on our board BTW.
BUT he had only nice things to say about Stich. Said she was authoritative, honest and smart.
Since then I have paid attention to anything she had to say about breeding.

That's not to say her book is good or bad, only that she is the real thing.

[CapperLou]

Tee:

You are on the right track--IMO. As I stated earlier, I do not have the time to carefully follow predigree stuff, but I do look at it where 1st time starters are concerned.

The first timers are still producing some overlays as you mentioned and I do play certain sires 1st timers. I'll even post one Sire here for our viewers with a lot of starters and good record.

Boundary is a good sire of 1st time starters with (in last year or so) over 50 starts and over 20% winners and very good ROI.

That's it for now!!!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[midnight]

I didn't say Pedigree handicapping was invalid or that you couldn't make money with it. I said that it's been so beaten to death that it's overbet. There aren't as many overlays as there used to be and the ones that exist aren't as big as they were. Of course that's true of almost every facet of handicapping.

[andicap]

Originally posted by midnight
I didn't say Pedigree handicapping was invalid or that you couldn't make money with it. I said that it's been so beaten to death that it's overbet. There aren't as many overlays as there used to be and the ones that exist aren't as big as they were. Of course that's true of almost every facet of handicapping.

My guess is there are probably hidden sires out there that people don't know about or sires that are strong in certain states.

Has anyone has any luck with sires for courses -- certain sires whose progeny do better at certain tracks because their conformation is better for those type of surfaces? Fourstardave was a gelding, but if he had offspring, would they have raced better at Saratoga than say, Belmont?
Just wondering.

[cj]

I have no doubt Ms Stich is a pedigree expert. A problem I had was her presentation of sire, grandsire, dam, and granddam information, as if this is common knowledge. No mention of where she gathers this information, or where I, the player, can get or even buy the information relating to female families.

Its only one chapter, and the book only cost $14, so I'll probably read it eventually. Just wish there was a Barnes and Noble nearby! :D

[thelyingthief]

seems to me you can compile that information from the sire, grandsire, etc. fields of any db you might be maintaining....

[cj]

Originally posted by thelyingthief
seems to me you can compile that information from the sire, grandsire, etc. fields of any db you might be maintaining....

That is not the kind of info she is talking about. If you have a database that goes back several generations, sure, but otherwise, not yet at least.

[karlskorner]

You can put together a fairly decent list of leading sires, about a 100 countrywide (10/10/04) from Throughbred Times and Bloodstock. Trackside ( a Fla. publication ) has a list of 50 leading Fla. sires ( I am not sure of their URL, as I get the publication).
Right now Halo's Image, Montbrook, Sword Dance and Tactical Advantage are on the National List. Great for 2 year olds and FTS. Last Friday a Halo's Image horse paid $21.80

[so.cal.fan]

"Has anyone has any luck with sires for courses "?



I have noticed for many years, andicap, that there are some sires here in Calif. that do better than you would expect at certain tracks and surfaces.
Noticed it at Del Mar over 20 years ago.......and then started to notice it at Santa Anita, on the turf course.
It's tricky, sort of like key races.....some of it is coincidence, but not all of them.
Joe Takach swears that there is a strong connection of sires/dams/grandsires that do better at certain tracks than others.
I think he overstates it, but there is something to it, in my opinion.

[CapperLou]

Karlskorner:

Not familiar with Trackside!!! Where can I order that or find out more about it? Is there an address if not a website. Thanks very much for any help.

All the best,

CapperLou

[CapperLou]

Anyone else on this thread know where to purchase Trackside, a publication from Florida mailed to you.

I cannot find anything on internet. Thx for help!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[karlskorner]

I forgot about this thread. Acually I screwed up (allowable for my age). Trackside belongs to Frank Carlson of the Santos and the buzzer fame. Track Record is the name I should have printed. It is basically an Ocala publication mostly for the breeders. They publish 50 Fla. leading sires 4 times a year (july,oct.,nov.& dec).

If your are still interested write to Bernie Dickman, Track Record,
9699 N.W. Cty. Hwy. 25A, Ocala, Fl. 34482 or call Mike Sherman (Farnsworth Farms) in Miami Beach 305 865 7560, he is usually in the Paddock area when he runs a horse.

[CapperLou]

Karl:

Thanks very much--I'll drop a line or if I have a chance I'll see Mike.

Hope you had a nice trip this past summer and are doing well now!!!

The sire info would be an added benefit for me--I would think!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[karlskorner]

Any day that I can get out of bed in the morning, I know it's going to be GREAT DAY