Kentucky Derby (G1)

[Que]

(#1) MONARCHOS
All: 6 3-1-1 $793,630; Sprints: 3 1-0-1 $22,630; Routes: 3 2-1-0 $771,000

4/14/01-Aqu10 D fst|cl 1 1/8m (997-1032-1036-1039) (1025) 2-2 3/4 Grd (2|750000) Wood Memorial outrun early, inside run second turn, came wide, game finish
3/10/01-GP11 D fst|cd 1 1/8m (1003-1031-1052-1048) (1041) 1-4 1/2 Grd (1|1000000) Florida Derby unhurried early, strong six wide move, vigorous hand ride
2/3/01-GP10 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (983-995-1010-1031) (1070) 1-4 3/4 Alw (NW1X|35000) chased pace, took over 1/8 pole, drew away, driving
1/13/01-GP8 D fst|cl 7f (990-1008-na-1024) (1038) 1-6 Mdn (31000) slipped through, inside, took over turn, drew away, driving


(#2) THUNDER BLITZ
All: 8 2-2-2 $198,450; Sprints: 0 0-0-0 $0,000; Routes: 8 2-2-2 $198,450

4/7/01-Hia11 D fst|cl 1 1/8m (983-1014-1029-1041) (1056) 1-6 3/4 Grd (3|250000) Flamingo S. jostled start, taken back, rallied took over far turn, drew away
3/14/01-GP7 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (973-1024-1029-1033) (1015) 2-4 3/4 Alw (NW1X|40000) outrun early, advanced between horses far turn, 2nd best
2/3/01-GP10 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (970-987-1007-1015) (1025) 3-8 1/2 Alw (NW1X|35000) rated off pace, 4 wide far turn, best of others
1/6/01-GP9 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (968-974-994-1019) (1054) 2-3/4 Alw (NW1X|33000) checked first turn, saved ground, finished well


(#3) MILLENNIUM WIND
All: 5 3-2-0 $769,920; Sprints: 1 1-0-0 $22,200; Routes: 4 2-2-0 $747,720

4/14/01-Kee9 D fst|cl 1 1/8m (1039-1048-1055-1043) (1020) 1-5 1/4 Grd (1|750000) Toyota Blue Grass S. gained lead inside,2-3 path,turned back challenge,drove clear
3/11/01-FG9 D fst|cd 1 1/16m (1007-1038-1023-1010) (955) 2-2 Grd (2|750000) Louisiana Derby 3-wide both turns, edge, collared, out finished
1/21/01-SA7 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (976-991-1008-1023) (1051) 1-1/2 Grd (2|100000) Santa Catalina S. settled,off rail,3 wide move,led into lane, gamely, good handling
12/16/00-Hol4 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (1030-1014-1023-1024) (1023) 2-1 Grd (1|200000) Hollywood Futurity pulled to lead,dueled inside,came out bit,fought back,willingly


(#4) CONGAREE
All: 4 3-0-0 $512,400; Sprints: 1 0-0-0 $0,000; Routes: 3 3-0-0 $512,400

4/14/01-Aqu10 D fst|cl 1 1/8m (1033-1060-1049-1044) (1012) 1-2 3/4 Grd (2|750000) Wood Memorial speed in hand, outside move, drew clear under heavy pressure
3/17/01-SA2 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (1006-1015-1023-1034) (1036) 1-8 Alw (NW1X|56000) prompted pace, 2 wide, bid 2nd turn, shook free, rail, ridden out
2/28/01-SA4 D wf|cd 1m (1019-1035-1036-1029) (1026) 1-5 Mdn (48000) bobbled bit start, inside move, kicked clear,strong hand ride
9/10/00-Dmr7 D fst|cl 6f (994-1006-na-1002) (961) 6-3 1/4 Mdn (47000) wide early, stalked pace, 4 wide, lacked late response


(#5) BALTO STAR
All: 8 4-0-1 $720,190; Sprints: 2 0-0-0 $1,230; Routes: 6 4-0-1 $718,960

4/14/01-OP9 D sly|lr 1 1/8m (1067-1045-1042-1027) (1007) 1-4 1/2 Grd (2|500000) Arkansas Derby broke sharp, cleared just to inside before quarter, ridden out
3/24/01-TP10 D fst|cl 1 1/8m (1050-1051-1027-1046) (1070) 1-12 3/4 Grd (2|600000) Turfway Spiral S. sprinted clear, set pace, inside, repulsed bid, drew off, driving
2/18/01-Aqu6 Di fst|cl 1 1/16m (1019-1020-1022-1027) (1029) 1-12 1/4 Alw (NW1X|44000) speed in hand, set pace, drew away when asked, ridden out
1/18/01-Aqu7 Di fst|sn 1 1/16m (1043-1027-1024-1003) (965) 3-4 1/4 Alw (NW1X|44000) speed in hand, inside move, weakened on rail stretch


(#6) POINT GIVEN
All: 8 5-3-0 $1,218,500; Sprints: 2 1-1-0 $37,600; Routes: 6 4-2-0 $1,180,900

4/7/01-SA5 D wf|rn 1 1/8m (1049-1032-1035-1035) (1037) 1-5 1/2 Grd (1|750000) Santa Anita Derby speed,inside,stalked,bid 2 wide,led in hand,drew clear,ridden out
3/17/01-SA7 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (1002-1014-1028-1036) (1033) 1-2 1/4 Grd (2|250000) San Felipe S. broke inward, settled outside, 5 wide move, led, cleared, driving
12/16/00-Hol4 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (991-1011-1021-1026) (1034) 1-1 Grd (1|200000) Hollywood Futurity 4wd 7-1/2, 3 wide move,lugged in bit,led past 1/8 stdy handling
11/4/00-CD8 D fst|cd 1 1/16m (978-999-999-1027) (1103) 2-Nose Grd (1|1000000) Breeders' Cup Juvenile saved ground, in hand, circled foes 10w lane, closed fast


(#8) KEATS
All: 4 2-0-1 $263,745; Sprints: 1 1-0-0 $21,000; Routes: 3 1-0-1 $242,745

4/21/01-Kee9 D fst|cd 1 1/16m (1037-1053-1043-1044) (1002) 1-3/4 Grd (2|325000) Coolmore Lexington S. drift out start,bumped, gained lead, control pace,driving
3/24/01-TP10 D fst|cl 1 1/8m (1038-1034-1001-982) (928) 8-36 1/4 Grd (2|600000) Turfway Spiral S. stumbled st, steadied 7/8, 3/4, dropped back, no factor
2/10/01-GP9 D fst|cl 7f (1032-1031-na-1026) (1010) 1-3 1/4 Alw (NW1X|35000) speed inside, drew clear, driving
11/4/00-CD2 D fst|cd 1m (1049-1047-1030-1007) (956) 3-3 1/2 Grd (3|100000) Iroquios S. edged inside,well placed between,led in lane,empty late


(#10) DOLLAR BILL
All: 8 3-2-1 $453,696; Sprints: 2 1-1-0 $32,800; Routes: 6 2-1-1 $420,896

4/14/01-Kee9 D fst|cl 1 1/8m (973-1014-1029-1031) (1036) 3-7 Grd (1|750000) Toyota Blue Grass S. bmp lightly start, saved ground, angled 3w lane,no threat
3/11/01-FG9 D fst|cd 1 1/16m (976-1022-1011-1010) (982) 4-2 1/4 Grd (2|750000) Louisiana Derby angled to rail, continued inside, clipped heels, stumbled, late
2/18/01-FG7 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (980-992-1009-1015) (1028) 1-2 1/2 Stk (125000) Risen Star S. settled rail, asked 2nd turn, 3-wide rally, driving, clear late
11/25/00-CD11 D sly|rn 1 1/16m (978-1005-1013-1017) (987) 1-1 1/4 Grd (2|200000) Brown and Williamson Kentucky Jockey Clu moved inside early, saved ground,angled 5w lane, stiff drive

[Que]

(#12) SONGANDAPRAYER
All: 6 3-1-0 $369,480; Sprints: 2 2-0-0 $66,480; Routes: 4 1-1-0 $303,000

4/14/01-Kee9 D fst|cl 1 1/8m (1028-1045-1055-1034) (994) 2-5 1/4 Grd (1|750000) Toyota Blue Grass S. in hand early,pressed winner,gained near even terms,no match late
3/10/01-GP11 D fst|cd 1 1/8m (1052-1060-1056-1030) (979) 5-10 1/4 Grd (1|1000000) Florida Derby five wide early, contested pace backstretch, faded stretch
2/17/01-GP10 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (1014-1031-1033-1030) (1008) 1-2 1/2 Grd (1|200000) Fountain Of Youth S. sprinted clear inside, well handled, remained clear, driving
1/20/01-GP10 D gd|lr 1 1/16m (1075-1061-1028-1010) (944) 5-5 Grd (3|100000) Holy Bull S. speed off rail, tired


(#18) INVISIBLE INK
All: 7 3-1-1 $215,560; Sprints: 1 0-0-0 $2,460; Routes: 6 3-1-1 $213,100

4/14/01-Kee9 D fst|cl 1 1/8m (1024-1043-1048-1028) (990) 4-8 1/2 Grd (1|750000) Toyota Blue Grass S. tracked leaders inside, angled 3w,bid 3/8s, empty in drive
3/10/01-GP11 D fst|cd 1 1/8m (1052-1054-1053-1036) (1003) 3-7 Grd (1|1000000) Florida Derby settled early, traffic turn, checked upper stretch, belated rally
1/31/01-GP4 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (1004-1022-1042-1033) (1015) 1-Neck Alw (NW2X|37000) steadied 1st turn, rallied, just up, driving
1/6/01-GP9 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (970-976-998-1021) (1050) 1-3/4 Alw (NW1X|33000) taken in hand first turn, five wide move, bid stretch, drew clear


(#25) A P VALENTINE
All: 7 3-0-2 $368,170; Sprints: 3 1-0-2 $33,670; Routes: 4 2-0-0 $334,500

4/14/01-Kee9 D fst|cl 1 1/8m (971-1013-1030-1020) (1003) 5-13 Grd (1|750000) Toyota Blue Grass S. outrun early,5-6 wide backstretch,edge in turn,4w lane,no threat
3/24/01-Hia7 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (1001-1005-1034-1026) (1071) 1-3 3/4 OClm (150000|NW2X|22900) rated off pace,advanced through far turn,drew off,ridden out
2/17/01-GP11 D fst|cl 7f (998-1012-na-1018) (1008) 3-6 1/2 Alw (NW2X|38000) unhurried early, 4 wide turn, improved position
11/4/00-CD8 D fst|cd 1 1/16m (997-1013-1009-985) (934) 14-22 3/4 Grd (1|1000000) Breeders' Cup Juvenile tired on 2nd turn


(#28) JAMAICAN RUM
All: 8 2-2-1 $287,085; Sprints: 3 1-0-0 $69,000; Routes: 5 1-2-1 $218,085

4/14/01-OP9 D sly|lr 1 1/8m (936-998-1028-1019) (1010) 2-4 1/2 Grd (2|500000) Arkansas Derby last away, trailed, six wide into stretch, came in 3/16, willing
3/17/01-SA7 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (963-987-1014-1029) (1044) 3-3 3/4 Grd (2|250000) San Felipe S. lagged back, inside, rallied 5 wide into lane, finished strongly
2/3/01-SA3 D fst|cl 7f (916-966-na-1020) (1070) 4-4 3/4 Grd (2|150000) San Vicente S. void early speed, inside, closed gap rail, no threat
1/6/01-SA4 T fm|cl 1m (1026-1021-1004-1021) (1037) 1-Neck Stk (75000) Hill Rise H. saved ground, close up, stalked, rail rally, led late, gamely


(#45) TALK IS MONEY
All: 6 2-1-1 $104,110; Sprints: 1 1-0-0 $14,820; Routes: 5 1-1-1 $89,290

4/21/01-Pim9 D fst|cd 1 1/8m (984-1003-1022-1018) (1027) 2-1 1/4 Stk (200000) Federico Tesio S. quickly clear, rail, pace, brushed winner 1/8, faded
4/7/01-Hia11 D fst|cl 1 1/8m (1011-1016-1027-1023) (1006) 3-10 1/2 Grd (3|250000) Flamingo S. chased pace, 4 wide, gave way
3/10/01-GP11 D fst|cd 1 1/8m (1024-1045-1046-1015) (951) 8-19 1/4 Grd (1|1000000) Florida Derby bobbled break, no threat, wide trip
2/17/01-GP10 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (945-985-1002-1000) (980) 10-16 1/2 Grd (1|200000) Fountain Of Youth S. dwelt start, never close


(#56) FIFTY STARS
All: 8 3-2-0 $676,210; Sprints: 1 0-0-0 $2,280; Routes: 7 3-2-0 $673,930

4/7/01-LS6 D fst|cd 1 1/8m (940-957-979-999) (1057) 2-2 Stk (500000) Lone Star Derby unhurried, in back, outside final turn, late rally
3/11/01-FG9 D fst|cd 1 1/16m (949-1004-1002-1014) (1014) 1-2 Grd (2|750000) Louisiana Derby 4-wide early, unhurried, angled out, split foes, rail bid, drivng
2/18/01-FG7 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (926-959-983-1004) (1054) 5-5 3/4 Stk (125000) Risen Star S. no speed, widest drive, improved position
1/27/01-FG9 D fst|cl 1m (933-986-1008-1011) (1028) 4-2 Stk (100000) Lecomte S. devoid speed, best stride late


(#87) STARTAC
All: 7 3-2-1 $285,193; Sprints: 0 0-0-0 $0,000; Routes: 7 3-2-1 $285,193

4/14/01-BM8 D fst|cl 1 1/8m (931-960-989-998) (1019) 4-4 3/4 Stk (200000) California Derby lagged early, 3w 2nd turn, lacked needed rally
3/10/01-GG8 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (938-995-1012-1020) (1039) 2-7 Stk (200000) lagged to 2nd turn, 2w to stretch, flttnd out
2/3/01-TuP7 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (933-960-1001-1012) (1064) 1-4 3/4 Stk (100000) Turf Paradise Derby rallied after 1/2, assumed command 4wide, drew off, ridden out
1/6/01-SA4 T fm|cl 1m (1022-1023-1004-1021) (1035) 2-Neck Stk (75000) Hill Rise H. close up, stalked pace, 2 wide, led into lane,fought back,edged


(#194) ARCTIC BOY
All: 7 1-2-1 $56,945; Sprints: 2 0-0-0 $3,755; Routes: 5 1-2-1 $53,190

4/14/01-OP9 D sly|lr 1 1/8m (1005-1011-1024-998) (955) 11-16 3/4 Grd (2|500000) Arkansas Derby showed little in a dull effort
3/24/01-OP10 D fst|cd 1 1/16m (951-987-999-1017) (1036) 2-3/4 Grd (3|100000) Rebel S. allowed pace to go, ranged up four wide late 2nd turn,outfinished
3/3/01-OP9 D sly|lr 1m (981-999-1006-1019) (1009) 2-2 1/4 Stk (75000) Southwest S. raced inside, no match for winner, well clear for place
2/2/01-OP1 D fst|cl 1 1/16m (968-965-975-997) (1034) 1-5 Mdn (25000) settled off pace, four wide bid 2nd turn, drove clear

[Que]

(#213) GIFT OF THE EAGLE
All: 12 2-3-2 $185,770; Sprints: 4 1-1-0 $32,145; Routes: 8 1-2-2 $153,625

4/28/01-CD9 D fst|cl 1m (959-995-1004-1004) (983) 6-8 1/4 Grd (3|100000) Derby Trial S. drift out start,bumped,outrun early,bid 5-6w 1/4 pl,flatten out
4/7/01-LS6 D fst|cd 1 1/8m (974-974-985-998) (1039) 3-2 3/4 Stk (500000) Lone Star Derby within contention, evenly, close throughout, proved 3rd best
1/1/01-Crc10 T fm|cl 1 1/8m (949-983-982-1001) (997) 9-10 1/4 Grd (3|100000) Tropical Park Derby failed to menace
11/25/00-CD11 D sly|rn 1 1/16m (980-1006-1018-1004) (934) 3-7 1/4 Grd (2|200000) Brown and Williamson Kentucky Jockey Clu never far back, raced 5-6 wide throughout,empty,last eighth


(NR) EXPRESS TOUR
All: 5 4-1-0 $1,613,515; Sprints: 3 2-1-0 $123,515; Routes: 1 1-0-0 $1,490,000

3/24/01-Nad 1-hd Grd (3|2000000) UAE Derby Tracked in 3rd, led 2f out, headed 1f out, led 70y out, New Track record
10/7/00-Crc12 D fst|cd 1 1/16m (1033-1022-1024-1021) (1016) 1-3/4 Stk (R|400000) Florida Stallion In Reality S. set pace, off rail, responded when challenged, dueled, prevailed
8/26/00-Crc9 D fst|cl 7f (1040-1032-na-1026) (1000) 1-11 1/4 Stk (R|125000) Florida Stallion Affirmed S. bumped start, set pace, inside, drew off, ridden out
8/5/00-Crc12 D fst|cd 6f (979-1001-na-1014) (1008) 1-2 1/2 Stk (R|75000) Florida Stallion Dr. Fager S. bumped, steadied early, angled out, rallied, drew clear, driving

[Trackpro]

Has A P Valentine been scratched?

[Que]

As far as I know, A P Valentine is still planning to run in the Derby.

[Trackpro]

Oops ..sorry I see him listed.

[ridersup]

QUE:

You the man. Monarchos #1 pick on 4-30-01. Hope you bet him with both hands. Nice goin.


Ridersup

[PaceAdvantage]

Yes Que! Beautiful handicapping. Your numbers prove themself in the big races once again!

Thanks for sharing!


==PA

[Que]

(#1) Monarchos 23.00 11.80 8.80
(#18) Invisible Ink 46.60 21.20
(#4) Congaree 7.20

Also ran: (#2) Thunder Blitz, (#6) Point Given, (#28) Jamaican Rum, (#25) A P Valentine, (NR) Express Tour, (#56) Fifty Stars, (#87) Startac, (#3) Millennium Wind, (#194) Arctic Boy, (#12) Songandaprayer, (#5) Balto Star, (#10) Dollar Bill, (#8) Keats, (#45) Talk Is Money

Year's Summary:

This was a glorious finish to another three year old season concluding with the Kentucky Derby. This was the second year in a row, I've only been doing the rankings for two years, that the topped ranked horse has won the Kentuck Derby. In fact this year, three of the top four horses finished in the top four spots--the only disappointment being #3 Millennium Wind. Overall, if you played the topped ranked horse in each of the posted Graded Stakes preps you would have had a very healthy ROI for two consecutive years. Last year, in 32 Graded Stakes preps, the topped ranked horse had an +8% ROI, while the horse with the highest final figure in their last race had a +89% ROI. Because of this disparity, I used a genetic algorithm to create an "improved" ranking system for this year's ratings. These rankings were based on the results of all two and three year grade one stakes events, for the previous three years, that were greater than a mile on the dirt. The final results for this year are shown below:

36 Starts
13 Wins (36.1%)
9 Seconds (61.1%)
2 Thirds (66.7%)
Avg. Win Mutual $11.27
ROI to Win: +103%

While I thought last years +89% ROI was going to be tough to beat, I know this year's +103% ROI will be even tougher--but I do have some planned improvements (lol). Also I think it's important to mention, that all these picks were computer generated, and I honestly believe the value of these picks was because of the variants. Finally, almost every time I tried to second guess these rankings, I got burned. Today for example, I almost talked myself out of playing Monarchos, because of his lack of works. In fact, I only ended up playing Monarcho's because of the 10-1 odds, despite his #1 ranking. Therefore, I think this proves, at least for me, the benefit of an objective evaluation system. For example, I can't tell you how confident I was that Fleet Renee would win the Oaks, but I had so many reservations that Monarchos would finish up the track in the Derby. These "gut feelings" cost me a lot of money, because I should have been loading up on Monarchos while scaling back on the favorite Fleet Renee, when in fact I did just the opposite. Anyway, needless to say, I am very proud of these results--and the fact that I posted all them prior to the race. Finally, I think it also demonstrates the value of computer generated picks--which I fully believe will soon surpase those of the best handicappers. Go baby go!!!!!!

Que.

[hdcper]

Hi Que,

Like the others, congratulations on selecting another nice priced winner. Your work is top notch and enjoy following every post.

However, I wish you would have run second today since my win money was on Invisible Ink.

Again Que, great work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hdcper

[GR1@HTR]

Once again Que, excellent job. I am already looking forward to next years 3yr old crop and your ratings!!!

[smf]

Que,

Awesome!!!

Hope you cashed in. You deserved it.

[Bobby]

Thanks for sharing your work.

[Glenny]

QUE,

Your excellent work speaks for itself. Congratulations, again.