The Shocking Truth About Picking Winners!!

[Maxspa]

All,
Michael Pizzola has written an article for the Fall 2004 issue of "Southern Gaming and Destinations". It can be accessed at www.itsdata.com It discusses a familiar problem that handicappers have, who are more concerned about a high number of winners rather than significant profits and possibly a lower win%.
This is a trap that many of us fall into, that leads to many odds on bets that are poor risks in the long run.
Yes, I know Michael is a one of a kind, talented, handicapper that few, if any of us , can match but his ideas can help all of us!
Maxspa

[hdcper]

Maxspa

Thanks for the link, enjoyed the article and totally agree.

Bill (Hdcper)

[Blackgold]

Not only do I use MP's ideas, techniques and software to find overlays. . .

I also pass many 5/2-to-7/2 shots that I KNOW WILL WIN, and I also know their odds of winning are 9/2 and up.

By finding our edge and applying it over and over, that's the path to profits.

The path to bankroll ruin is to constantly bet runners that are not overlays, no matter how many of them win.

[Maxspa]

Blackgold,
I have known several coaches who were good handicappers but could not consistently win. In the coaching profession each game needs to be won. Therefore when they approach the races using the same philosophy and do not include the price factor disaster strikes! It is one of the toughest but necessary concepts to put into practice.
Maxspa

[Equineer]

Blackgold,

How right you are!

If the public does a good job of handicapping a race, there are no playable horses.

It is ironic that perfect handicapping dooms everyone to failure.

[CapperLou]

Great stuff here----the quick path to financial ruin IS betting the underlays when the public is right. It took me years to finally learn this along with a dent to the bankroll.

I have and can play chalk and win many races, but doing this it is impossible to be profitable.

These days the vast majority of plays I make are at 6-1 and up.
The win% is lower, but the ROI is positive.

Of course---one must learn to "sit on his hands" and have great patience every day one is playing. It's not easy!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[Niko]

Blackgold:
If you KNOW THEY WILL WIN why are their fair odds 9-2 or higher? or why don't you bet them? There are overalys at 3-1 just as there are underlays at 10-1? Is it a matter of semantics that I read your post wrong or just individual preference on your part?
I rarely bet low odds horses because I'm not good enough to differentiate between them to show long term profits but occasionally they do make sense and are good bets even at 5-2.

[CapperLou]

Very good point!!!

That's why I stated that the "vast majority" of plays I make are at higher odds, BUT--- some of them are 5-2 like yesterday in 2nd at DEL #3 Casino Knight which paid 7.60 and galloped. This one stood out to me and looked like an even money shot.

All the best,

CapperLou

[First_Place]

Thanks for letting us know. I'm always interested in hearing what the "Master Magician" has to say.

FP

[First_Place]

I just read it. Nothing new, it's virtually verbatim from his book Handicapping Magic, page 12.

Regardless, the info is still relevant.

FP

p.s. Everybody who wants Michael to write an addendum to Handicapping Magic all raise your hand (I do! I do!).

[thelyingthief]

well, I know I'm shocked.

[DonnieN]

What the frick?? Massa used the baseball player analogy probably a year ago....maybe they are all taking lessons from the same person?? Guess if you look where the article landed, it is probably why it is a "re-tread". Wonder how he knows about Ted Williams personal life??? (quote: Was Ted Williams a failure because he made out 60% of the time, even in his best year?) But with whom?? Details, man, details!! :D

[Blackgold]

I've bet horses to win at 5/2. . . when their true odds were closer to 9/5.

[Hosshead]

As long as you've got a positive ROI, you can always say that they're overlays, no matter what the odds are. ie: If you hit 60% winners at even money, then they are overlays.
I really don't care what it's called, as long as it's called a PROFIT. :)

[freeneasy]

just look and wait for the free money. when you find it, bet it. you'll probably win more often then not. passing up a 5-2 winner that can be predicted to win in a romp is only saving money. nothing wrong with putting your money where your confidence is and if your confidence is secured on a horse that can win in a romp, nail em. who cares if your getting a little less then the fair market value on your horse cause when that baby crosses the wire first your going to be count'n the money with yer toung. :D

[Buckeye]

I'll read the article, but what's "shocking" about picking winners and losing money? Everybody picks winners, it's just a question of how many and at what prices. The bottom line is always the bottom line. Not sure what I'm missing here. There's NO WAY to win money other than cashing tickets, be they long or short.

It's no shock to me that short prices make it difficult to make money, but then again, not cashing tickets on longshots has the exact same effect.

I'm ready to be shocked because it's been awhile :)