Computer Player Invests $29k in Pick 6 - Takes Jackpot

[Zman179]

A pick six payoff of $173,912 on Sunday at Del Mar was hit by a bettor who put $29,652 into the wager, with the winning combination purchased on an $8 base play instead of the minimum $2 base play for the pick six.



https://www.drf.com/news/pick-six-pays-173912-single-winner

[PaceAdvantage]

That's what happens when you have $29K to put into a race...you're not a $2 bettor....shocking...

I wonder what his base ticket was on the ones he/she REALLY liked.

[JerryBoyle]

The type of breakdown they do in the article is awesome and the sort of transparency that I'd like to see. The max bet on a single combination was $60.

"All wagers were placed in batches, the last batch approximately 4 minutes before the first leg of the Pick 6,” according to the statement, first revealed on the Twitter account of the board’s spokesman, Mike Marten. “All 8,613 wagers used just one horse in each race, or using the popular wagering terminology, with six singles. However, the denominations of those wagers differed.

It's fascinating to me that whoever this is has a system which is sophisticated enough to generate 8k+ combinations yet isn't merging tickets based on common runners and equal bet sizes. 4 minutes prior to the start of the race leaves a lot of information on the table regarding the first race and possible daily double.

[Tom]

Steve Byk talking about it first hour today.

Listen to the details and then tell me you have any interest in supporting any tracks today.

Asking for a friend - are they any track that do not allow computer batch betting?

Because if there are, those are the only tracks we should support.

Let the computers battle it our among themselves.

[GMB@BP]

This CAW team bet 30k on one bet in one race......

trust me that have all the information they need. They are not waiting for the tote to give them any information in regards to a pick 6 bet.

A team like this probably has connections in every barn and has a beat on every horse in every race.

[AndyC]

Steve Byk talking about it first hour today.

Listen to the details and then tell me you have any interest in supporting any tracks today.

Asking for a friend - are they any track that do not allow computer batch betting?

Because if there are, those are the only tracks we should support.

Let the computers battle it our among themselves.

Does batch betting make someone a better handicapper? Perhaps the solution is to open up batch betting to the masses.

[PaceAdvantage]

This CAW team bet 30k on one bet in one race......

trust me that have all the information they need. They are not waiting for the tote to give them any information in regards to a pick 6 bet.

A team like this probably has connections in every barn and has a beat on every horse in every race.Why go through all THAT trouble and expense when you can just use computer algorithms to come up with last second wagers that are based on maximizing your perceived value bets across all wager types that will basically guarantee a profit after rebates are factored into the equation?

Who would NOT want to basically be a "casino" in that situation?

Who the hell needs unreliable or expensive connections to "get a beat on every horse in every race" when something like that is absolutely unnecessary for them to achieve their goals?

[metro]

Wouldn't they have gotten the whole pool anyway on a single ticket?

Also, if they played 8,613 tickets chances are the winning ticket may have been subjected to withholding opposed to playing larger tickets that would go over the 300-1 threshold for withholding based on the payout.

[JerryBoyle]

Wouldn't they have gotten the whole pool anyway on a single ticket?

Also, if they played 8,613 tickets chances are the winning ticket may have been subjected to withholding opposed to playing larger tickets that would go over the 300-1 threshold for withholding based on the payout.

I believe the tax implications were changed a few years ago to allow for aggregating all wagers across a given pool as the cost of the ticket.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Why go through all THAT trouble and expense when you can just use computer algorithms to come up with last second wagers that are based on maximizing your perceived value bets across all wager types that will basically guarantee a profit after rebates are factored into the equation?

Who the hell needs unreliable or expensive connections to "get a beat on every horse in every race" when something like that is absolutely unnecessary for them to achieve their goals?

Are these bettors given access to the payouts of various combos of the Pick 6? If not, how do they maximize on perceived value?

"unreliable or expensive connections" -- totally agree/waste of time/with few exceptions, you don't want to know what anyone on the backstretch thinks (Steve Crist showed this in his book from his time as an exec at NYRA).

[JerryBoyle]

Are these bettors given access to the payouts of various combos of the Pick 6? If not, how do they maximize on perceived value?

"unreliable or expensive connections" -- totally agree/waste of time/with few exceptions, you don't want to know what anyone on the backstretch thinks (Steve Crist showed this in his book from his time as an exec at NYRA).

As far as I know, no one has access to individual combinations for anything more exotic than wagers w 2 legs. AmWager can provide this info for trifectas if the track provides it, but it seemed like most tracks don't provide it.

However, it's still possible to come up with something that predicts what the final payout will be for every single combination. With that, it's a simple matter to test how you would do when using your estimate of a combination's chance of winning, and your estimate of the payoff of the combination. It doesn't need to be perfect.

[Tom]

Does batch betting make someone a better handicapper? Perhaps the solution is to open up batch betting to the masses.

No. I have no problem with anyone having a computer program that picks winners better than I do. My complaint is that allowing batch betting destroys the game for "normal" bettors.

If there any tracks tht do not allow the CAWs to bet in batch, I will be more than happy to give them 100% of my business and say screw the rest. Not that track are out there sucking up for my bets.....:rolleyes:

Until then, I am happy to barely bet anymore.
Why would I put money into a game that is rigged against the average player?

[metro]

I believe the tax implications were changed a few years ago to allow for aggregating all wagers across a given pool as the cost of the ticket.

That's news to me, thought the change was going from the base amount of a ticket (x 300) to the actual cost (x 300). Didn't hear anything about aggregate cost of all wagers.

I'll have to look back at my one "signer" this year.

[AndyC]

No. I have no problem with anyone having a computer program that picks winners better than I do. My complaint is that allowing batch betting destroys the game for "normal" bettors.

If there any tracks tht do not allow the CAWs to bet in batch, I will be more than happy to give them 100% of my business and say screw the rest. Not that track are out there sucking up for my bets.....:rolleyes:

Until then, I am happy to barely bet anymore.
Why would I put money into a game that is rigged against the average player?

Is there a science to batch betting or is it just the ability to bet at the last second? How much of an advantage in a P-6 pool can a bettor derive by betting at the last second versus betting with 2 minutes to post?

[metro]

No. I have no problem with anyone having a computer program that picks winners better than I do. My complaint is that allowing batch betting destroys the game for "normal" bettors.

If there any tracks tht do not allow the CAWs to bet in batch, I will be more than happy to give them 100% of my business and say screw the rest. Not that track are out there sucking up for my bets.....:rolleyes:

Until then, I am happy to barely bet anymore.
Why would I put money into a game that is rigged against the average player?

The computer programs aren't focused on picking winners, they are focused on finding value in the pools. In theory once they have "leveled" the pools, or payouts, they stop betting certain combinations. It's also why they bet at the very last second.

I really don't have a problem with the batch players, it's the rebates they are afforded which hurts the average player. Those rebates could instead be directed at reducing takeout which helps everyone that wagers.

iirc Oaklawn one of the few major tracks that doesn't give the batch guys access to their pools or accept batch wagering.

[JerryBoyle]

That's news to me, thought the change was going from the base amount of a ticket (x 300) to the actual cost (x 300). Didn't hear anything about aggregate cost of all wagers.

I'll have to look back at my one "signer" this year.

Actually, I think I'm wrong and you're correct. https://www.rosenbergmartin-tax.com/news/update-irs-proposes-substantial-changes-to-tax-withholding-on-winnings-from-pari-mutuel-bets/

In the case of a wagering transaction with respect to horse races, dog races, or jai alai, all wagers placed in a single parimutuel pool and represented on a single ticket are aggregated and treated as a single wager for purposes of determining the amount of the wager. A ticket in the case of horse races, dog races, or jai alai is a written or electronic record that the payee must present to collect proceeds from a wager or wagers.

That does change the withholding implications. Though if you're a team making millions, your bankroll is such a small fraction of your returns that it probably doesn't matter if you have to set aside 25% from big scores.

[metro]

That does change the withholding implications. Though if you're a team making millions, your bankroll is such a small fraction of your returns that it probably doesn't matter if you have to set aside 25% from big scores.

They are surely audited every year too so it just becomes a matter of who holds on to the money/withholding until the actual tax day.

[classhandicapper]

iirc Oaklawn one of the few major tracks that doesn't give the batch guys access to their pools or accept batch wagering.

Why is that every time I learn some something new about Oaklawn I like it even more than that I did before? The management there must be very good. Absent some disaster, Oaklawn has a shot to become the "go to" track for serious players.

[GMB@BP]

Why is that every time I learn some something new about Oaklawn I like it even more than that I did before? The management there must be very good. Absent some disaster, Oaklawn has a shot to become the "go to" track for serious players.

I believe a big part of it is that its not corporately owned.

[Tom]

Is there a science to batch betting or is it just the ability to bet at the last second? How much of an advantage in a P-6 pool can a bettor derive by betting at the last second versus betting with 2 minutes to post?

I am not talking about P-6 wagers. I am talking about Win betting, where odds are changing 2-3 days after the race is run! :rolleyes:

[Tom]

Why is that every time I learn some something new about Oaklawn I like it even more than that I did before? The management there must be very good. Absent some disaster, Oaklawn has a shot to become the "go to" track for serious players.

MY 2 cents - OP is the BEST tack out there - bar NONE.
And it is not even close to second place. I have not wasted my time with Aqu, GP, Tam - any other track during the winter for a few years now.

When they are selling bourbon for the price of root beer, int's a no brainer.

[AndyC]

I believe a big part of it is that its not corporately owned.

I am not sure what you mean by "corporately owned" but it is a subsidiary of Southwestern Enterprises Inc.

I have never gotten into racing at Oaklawn because they lack a turf course. From the looks of it they seem to be doing a great job. Could it be the favorable political environment in Arkansas allowing for both a racetrack and a casino?

[SG4]

Actually, I think I'm wrong and you're correct. https://www.rosenbergmartin-tax.com/news/update-irs-proposes-substantial-changes-to-tax-withholding-on-winnings-from-pari-mutuel-bets/



That does change the withholding implications. Though if you're a team making millions, your bankroll is such a small fraction of your returns that it probably doesn't matter if you have to set aside 25% from big scores.


My interpretation of the current tax situation is if you're betting $30,000 on one pick 6 sequence, and if it's all in the same account, no matter how many combos or denominations you enter this in as, you won't be subject to withholding or a W-2G unless your payout is coming back over $9 million (300x the investment), so I don't think tax issues are a concern of this group, until year end filing time at least.

[GMB@BP]

I am not sure what you mean by "corporately owned" but it is a subsidiary of Southwestern Enterprises Inc.

I have never gotten into racing at Oaklawn because they lack a turf course. From the looks of it they seem to be doing a great job. Could it be the favorable political environment in Arkansas allowing for both a racetrack and a casino?

interesting, I thought it was family owned. My bad.

[cj]

I am not sure what you mean by "corporately owned" but it is a subsidiary of Southwestern Enterprises Inc.

I have never gotten into racing at Oaklawn because they lack a turf course. From the looks of it they seem to be doing a great job. Could it be the favorable political environment in Arkansas allowing for both a racetrack and a casino?

Isn't that a company owned and run by the Cella family, the same family that has run Oaklawn for more than a century?

[BarchCapper]

Isn't that a company owned and run by the Cella family, the same family that has run Oaklawn for more than a century?

Yes, it's all Cella.

The only thing about Oaklawn under Cella family ownership that gives me any concern is the connection with CDI - since TwinSpires is the backend of Oaklawn's ADW. I would love to be able to make a gift to the Cellas of a 6-paneled photo for their office (Hollywood before and after, Calder before and after, and Arlington "before" and for "after" a photo of the CHRB meeting where CDI affirmed that they weren't going to pursue a casino license) - so that it would constantly remind them how much CDI loves racing, and how beneficial it is to have publicly traded companies owning racetracks.

[AndyC]

interesting, I thought it was family owned. My bad.

It can be both. Think Stronach.

[AndyC]

Isn't that a company owned and run by the Cella family, the same family that has run Oaklawn for more than a century?

The Cella financial empire is certainly in a corporate structure but not a public company. My comment was a response to the success of Oaklawn being that it wasn't corporately owned.

[GMB@BP]

The Cella financial empire is certainly in a corporate structure but not a public company. My comment was a response to the success of Oaklawn being that it wasn't corporately owned.

Do they or do they not have shareholders to answer to? I did not realize you were being cute with a technical play on terms.

[AndyC]

Do they or do they not have shareholders to answer to? I did not realize you were being cute with a technical play on terms.

Their corporation is very large and I don't know the shareholder breakdown. Typically executives and other employees are given stock options and other ownership opportunities.

I wasn't trying to be cute but certainly don't understand the anti-corporate mentality. Answering to shareholders is not a bad thing in most cases. Businesses of all types make bad decisions. Good corporate management knows that if you run a business properly the stock price will take care of itself and the shareholders will be happy.

[mountainman]

Their programs and last second access boil down to blind-siding us with very sophisticated tote-corrections. In my opinion, the key is restricting your serious wagers to narrow situations in which your insights have an advantage over computers.

[JustRalph]

Their programs and last second access boil down to blind-siding us with very sophisticated tote-corrections. In my opinion, the key is restricting your serious wagers to narrow situations in which your insights have an advantage over computers.

Very hard to do.....and fewer and fewer opportunities every day.

Damn impossible for weekend players

[SG4]

Why go through all THAT trouble and expense when you can just use computer algorithms to come up with last second wagers that are based on maximizing your perceived value bets across all wager types that will basically guarantee a profit after rebates are factored into the equation?

Who would NOT want to basically be a "casino" in that situation?

Who the hell needs unreliable or expensive connections to "get a beat on every horse in every race" when something like that is absolutely unnecessary for them to achieve their goals?


So I've wondered about this, are you of the opinion that computer teams are betting all races strictly off algorithms with no human input? There has to be some degree of human input and analysis on races loaded with first-time starters, or other situations that I assume would make a computer analysis lack value, right? These are the spots where I wonder how these teams compute & succeed.

[mountainman]

Very hard to do.....and fewer and fewer opportunities every day.

Damn impossible for weekend players

Sad, but True.

[Tom]

Their programs and last second access boil down to blind-siding us with very sophisticated tote-corrections. In my opinion, the key is restricting your serious wagers to narrow situations in which your insights have an advantage over computers.

Like Lottery tickets? :rolleyes:

At least you get better rides....:lol:

[SG4]

Del Mar's pick 6 pool seems excessively light today, only 174k with a carryover (a real carry, not a jackpot carry) of 53k, plus jackpot of 11k. I would've expected a carryover of that amount to bring in a new pool closer to 250k. I wonder if this is blow-back from low & mid-level players from what happened earlier in the week.

[SG4]

Does anyone know which ADW's offer spreadsheet batch bet uploads to their customers? I know Twinspires had it as an option until their full site re-do earlier this year which unfortunately scrapped that availability. Something like that made available to the entire customer base without really needing any investment or programming knowledge could really be valuable if players wanted to try & mimic these computer players to some degree.

[JerryBoyle]

Does anyone know which ADW's offer spreadsheet batch bet uploads to their customers? I know Twinspires had it as an option until their full site re-do earlier this year which unfortunately scrapped that availability. Something like that made available to the entire customer base without really needing any investment or programming knowledge could really be valuable if players wanted to try & mimic these computer players to some degree.

AmWager does, and it's very fast. It's by far the fastest at processing bets as compared to any other ADW I've used.

[Ted Craven]

Agreed. Democratization of batch betting at the last minute for the little guy. Create a text file of (hundred of) wagers then upload it (e.g. from your spreadsheet or custom program). Or use their direct access API for ticket submission if you can program. Bigger syndicates probably don't use AmWager as much (better rebates elsewhere), but they're doing the same thing (API) - no more.

I place wagers this way within 20 seconds of post-time.

Ted

[davew]

I do not know how many betting interests there were on the day the bettor won, but a 545454 bet would be 8000 combinations.

[ultracapper]

Why is that every time I learn some something new about Oaklawn I like it even more than that I did before? The management there must be very good. Absent some disaster, Oaklawn has a shot to become the "go to" track for serious players.

Need turf

[classhandicapper]

Need turf

Not me. ;)

[metro]

Not me. ;)

I agree, refreshing to still have a major track with races exclusively on dirt.

[classhandicapper]

I agree, refreshing to still have a major track with races exclusively on dirt.

Aside from just being more experienced as a dirt player and not enjoying races with a lot of first time turf horses, one of the biggest problems I have with turf is track bias. If a track splits its card between dirt and turf you often don't have enough of a sample on either surface to figure out if there was a bias. If you can see 9-10 races on the same surface, you can usually figure out what was going on.

[cj]

Aside from just being more experienced as a dirt player and not enjoying races with a lot of first time turf horses, one of the biggest problems I have with turf is track bias. If a track splits its card between dirt and turf you often don't have enough of a sample on either surface to figure out if there was a bias. If you can see 9-10 races on the same surface, you can usually figure out what was going on.

Agree, spot on. Same goes for figure making. Throw in some places with multiple turf courses and figures get less and less reliable.

[AndyC]

Aside from just being more experienced as a dirt player and not enjoying races with a lot of first time turf horses, one of the biggest problems I have with turf is track bias. If a track splits its card between dirt and turf you often don't have enough of a sample on either surface to figure out if there was a bias. If you can see 9-10 races on the same surface, you can usually figure out what was going on.

I have seen dirt courses change dramatically during a day that can probably be attributed to between race track maintenance and change in weather conditions. As for the turf, I have seen changes from one day to another due to cutting the course or adding or not adding water. I can't recall ever seeing a change during any one day. Cheap horses running on the turf can give the illusion of a bias.

[Robert Fischer]

https://twitter.com/DRFGrening/status/1294401027484127232


$2 win prices for sequence;
$31.20!
$29.80!
$8.00
$105.00!
$21.20!

Somehow EVERY horse in the last leg had a covered will-pay 5/5...

We are to believe that the late-p5 pool-info/data at NYRA is a 'CAW-free' ...

Either there is a reckless whale making long-term losing plays who happens to be on tilt, and got miraculously lucky while making a really bad (series of multiple) tickets, or their is Caw data guessing, or their is CAW data knowing uncovered... I will not speculate into hacking/or past-posting as I believe that is sillyness...

Even a heavily-rebated whale can't afford to play like this for long.

Final word = I don't know. I don't know what really happened, and I can't say anything happened that wasn't with the rules or the accepted practices.:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[lamboguy]

https://twitter.com/DRFGrening/status/1294401027484127232


$2 win prices for sequence;
$31.20!
$29.80!
$8.00
$105.00!
$21.20!

Somehow EVERY horse in the last leg had a covered will-pay 5/5...

We are to believe that the late-p5 pool-info/data at NYRA is a 'CAW-free' ...

Either there is a reckless whale making long-term losing plays who happens to be on tilt, and got miraculously lucky while making a really bad (series of multiple) tickets, or their is Caw data guessing, or their is CAW data knowing uncovered... I will not speculate into hacking/or past-posting as I believe that is sillyness...

Even a heavily-rebated whale can't afford to play like this for long.

Final word = I don't know. I don't know what really happened, and I can't say anything happened that wasn't with the rules or the accepted practices.:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:i wonder how many horses the player played to come up with the $100 horse that to me should have paid $1000. i couldn't have come up with that horse in 3 lifetimes.

congratulations to the individual that had the courage to put up that type of money and for picking the correct numbers.

[AndyC]

https://twitter.com/DRFGrening/status/1294401027484127232


$2 win prices for sequence;
$31.20!
$29.80!
$8.00
$105.00!
$21.20!

Somehow EVERY horse in the last leg had a covered will-pay 5/5...

We are to believe that the late-p5 pool-info/data at NYRA is a 'CAW-free' ...

Either there is a reckless whale making long-term losing plays who happens to be on tilt, and got miraculously lucky while making a really bad (series of multiple) tickets, or their is Caw data guessing, or their is CAW data knowing uncovered... I will not speculate into hacking/or past-posting as I believe that is sillyness...

Even a heavily-rebated whale can't afford to play like this for long.

Final word = I don't know. I don't know what really happened, and I can't say anything happened that wasn't with the rules or the accepted practices.:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

With a $.50 ticket base the result is no surprise.

[classhandicapper]

I have seen dirt courses change dramatically during a day that can probably be attributed to between race track maintenance and change in weather conditions.

Agreed.

IMO maintenance sometimes changes the track prior to a major stake if they sense there was a bias early in the day (though high quality horses tend to be able to run right through biases better also). You can see 4-5 dirt races where you are certain there was a bias, then they either add extra water or let it dry. Then not only are you worried about who will be impacted by the bias, you are worried about whether they just changed it. I've even seen a speed favoring track clearly dry out and start favoring closers, then the trucks added a lot of water and reversed it again.

As someone that puts a lot of time into watching replays and making bias notes around the country, sometimes I want to bang my head into a wall because I'm not sure what happened.