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stuball
10-29-2004, 08:29 PM
Anyone here going to join the Players Pool Pick 6 Ticket on

Brisbet? I always thought about something like this as there

is a lot of power pooling your money...I am thinking of throwing

in to the pool...I wish there was a way to tell how much is in the

pool b4 you bet....worth a shot if they get 10,000 to play with ....

What do you think??


Stuball :confused:

betovernetcapper
10-29-2004, 11:09 PM
Considering my betting level, putting together a $500 pic 6 ticket doesn't make a lot of sense...........but for a $10 buy in...why not?

Buddha
10-30-2004, 12:05 AM
I'm not going to do it just because I know one of the guys making the selections, and don't care a whole lot for him.

PaceAdvantage
10-30-2004, 12:26 AM
They are certainly getting innovative over at America Tab. First the online Contests, now a pooled Pick 6 ticket.....

I didn't even think such a thing was quite legal, but I guess it is....for them at least.

JustRalph
10-30-2004, 01:42 AM
I love the idea. I bought in for $20

What the hell..........

stuball
10-30-2004, 08:57 AM
Originally posted by Buddha
I'm not going to do it just because I know one of the guys making the selections, and don't care a whole lot for him.


Care to clue us in on why or is it personal ?
I think this is a great idea that I thought about yrs ago......but was not on this scale...I never thought they would get this much response. I'm in for 1%---- unless this really goes whacko...I will wait till almost closing to put my $ in...could be fun day and profitable...

Stuball

ceejay
10-30-2004, 06:17 PM
It looks like there was no 6 of 6 winner, and the Ameritab ticket had 5 of 6 5 times. My calculations show $63.40/$10 unit.

betovernetcapper
10-30-2004, 06:58 PM
:) For a compleatly mindless bet that's really amazing

JustRalph
10-30-2004, 07:42 PM
What Friggin Horse did they miss? If it was "better talk now" I am going to be pissed..............and I bet they sweated the objection. I did...........but I had him across the board ......my get out horse of the day. I probably would have made more money if they took him down..........although I think the pick 6 would have been very chalky if they put the fave back up.........

ceejay
10-30-2004, 08:34 PM
1,2,3,4,6,8,10,11,12
With #2,3,4,5,9,13
with #3,5,8,11,12
with #1,2,3,4,6
with #1,4,5,7
with #1,6,9,12
plus a smaller ticket

They missed the Juvy winner, Wilko. It looks like they are withholding 28% for taxes. They were obviolusly hoping that BTN stayed up!

JustRalph
10-30-2004, 09:28 PM
Originally posted by ceejay
1,2,3,4,6,8,10,11,12
With #2,3,4,5,9,13
with #3,5,8,11,12
with #1,2,3,4,6
with #1,4,5,7
with #1,6,9,12
plus a smaller ticket

They missed the Juvy winner, Wilko. It looks like they are withholding 28% for taxes. They were obviolusly hoping that BTN stayed up!

thanks ........everytime I go over to look at the ticket........it times out on me.........thanks again

Pace Cap'n
10-30-2004, 09:34 PM
Am I figuring that correctly?

A $43,200.00 ticket?????????

Zman179
10-30-2004, 10:45 PM
Heck, even I would've picked 5 of 6 with a 43 thousand dollar ticket.

Nonetheless, it's definitely good publicity for AmericaTab. At least they're doing some imaginative things to drum up business.

And just for the heck of it, I did the math. If the AmericaTab ticket had been the only winner, it would've paid out on 6 of 6 after taxes $5715.70 for every $10 invested (odds of 792/1 minus 28% for the IRS) plus consolations. So probably around $7500.

Sad part is that the consolations came back at odds of 9/2 ($48.70 for each $10 wagered)....and it has to be reported to the IRS as gambling winnings since the ticket itself was a "signer". I'd never thought that I'd see a 9/2 signer.

betovernetcapper
10-30-2004, 11:05 PM
Wait a min-if they took 28% tax out already, why do we need to pay another tax?

Buddha
10-31-2004, 12:06 AM
Originally posted by stuball
Care to clue us in on why or is it personal ?
I think this is a great idea that I thought about yrs ago......but was not on this scale...I never thought they would get this much response. I'm in for 1%---- unless this really goes whacko...I will wait till almost closing to put my $ in...could be fun day and profitable...

Stuball

One of the guys I just dont care for. Nothing personal, and I can talk to the guy sometimes, but it almost just seems like that he is better than everyone else. Also, I have heard that he has been known to blow 250,000 in about 4 or 5 years gambling.

WJ47
10-31-2004, 12:37 AM
The players pick 6 pool was fun! I only put in $10, but it was fun watching the ticket. And they got pretty close! I hope that American Tab does this again.

Blackgold
10-31-2004, 08:13 AM
I gave 'em a hundred and was glad to see the consol. payoff.

Was surprised that it took three expert P6 players to put in a $43,000 ticket.

I thought for sure I'd see some structuring as Barry Meadow mentions in his excellent writings on the P6 or Crist illustrated in "Betting On Myself".

Since that Euro invader was an unknown, it should have appeared somewhere on a structured ticket certainly singling Ghost Zapper (I still hate Ston-of-a-b***h).

I critize, yet I put in a $220 P3 on races LS3, LS4 & LS5. . .and cashed a whopping $380.

But did catch the exacta and tri by keying that Chuckie horse in the 12th, so overall a profitable day.

Can't wait until Thanksgiving day, opening of the FG with new management- CD.

Good luck to all today. . .back to the battle starting with AQU.

stuball
11-01-2004, 08:39 AM
You can count me as 1 person who just had an absolute ball
with the pick 6 ticket..I had no problem with the tickets or the format....maybe in the future it can be refined...I just don't understand what is in it for the 3 hdcprs....unless it was a vehicle
to put their money into a partnership and maintain control of
the selections...which is fine, if they are putting their money in
so much the better for all investors...I imagine they agonized about putting in the horse they missed on...it is always a problem
with the unknowns.....gotta draw the line somewhere...that's horse racing...

It was a fun day and profitable...and I had a ball with it


Stuball

keilan
11-01-2004, 11:07 AM
1,2,3,4,6,8,10,11,12
With #2,3,4,5,9,13
with #3,5,8,11,12
with #1,2,3,4,6
with #1,4,5,7
with #1,6,9,12
plus a smaller ticket.
They missed the Juvy winner, Wilko. It looks like they are withholding 28% for taxes. They were obviolusly hoping that BTN stayed up!


Extremely amateurish ticket structure. With $21,600 to spend the P6 should have been a slam dunk.

Buddha
11-01-2004, 11:22 AM
Yea, I think that is kinda bad. either way, if you are going to make one HUGE ticket like that, why did you need 5 horses in the F&M Turf? Ok, I can see trying to get around Ouija Board and getting a price, but I thought there were only about 2 horses that could contend with her, and they finished 2nd and 3rd.

I just think with that much money for a ticket(s) there could have been better construction. Now i am not going to say that I could have done better, but I think that better could have been done.

stuball
11-01-2004, 04:08 PM
The reason I was happy with it was because I won some money.

I have never bet a pick 6 in my life b4 this...so I am really like a

mushroom when it comes to making up a ticket...Maybe that

would be a good suggestion for them to include 2 guys to pick

the horses and 1 expert on constructing tickets....

I said I was happy and had fun..in thinking about it I would have

been happier to get a share of the whole pool.....

There are smarter people than me in this game.......so be it...

Stuball:)

ceejay
11-24-2004, 12:08 PM
http://www.americatab.com/new_wagertote/affiliate/1100/brisbet.html

They are doing it again for Sunday 28 Nov. >$15K in already.

JustRalph
11-24-2004, 01:05 PM
I don't have to handicap a race or even look at the form...and these guys have a hell of a history with this bet..........hell yes I am in for $20. You gotta know what your time is worth............think about it...........I think it is a damn good deal.

Blackgold
11-26-2004, 08:46 AM
If the field size comes up small at HOL, like it usually does, then the P6 may not be a good bet on Sun.

Although I haven't yet looked at the card, I remember couple years ago where one of these guaranteed P6's only paid $500 or so out there.

Good luck all.

headhawg
11-27-2004, 11:59 AM
Seems like the Pick 6 pooling idea is taking off.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=429&item=5143176784&rd=1

Is this anyone from here? :rolleyes:

PaceAdvantage
11-27-2004, 12:39 PM
Is this legal?

JustRalph
11-27-2004, 01:00 PM
Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
Is this legal?

Not sure if he is actually doing anything different than the AmericaTab guys? when you think about it he is doing the same thing that they are...........sans the technology that is in place for AmericaTab. Great question and a great Idea. If legal. Ebay would be the place to do it.

PaceAdvantage
11-27-2004, 01:14 PM
I thought I read that in many jurisdictions (including NY), it is TECHNICALLY illegal for someone to WAGER someone else's money at the track (even though it is done all the time).

Anyone else concur?

ceejay
11-27-2004, 01:35 PM
I also wonder about the IRS implications if he/she wins.

Hosshead
11-27-2004, 07:44 PM
Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
I thought I read that in many jurisdictions (including NY), it is TECHNICALLY illegal for someone to WAGER someone else's money at the track (even though it is done all the time).

Anyone else concur? Isn't that what Gordon Jones was arrested for (in Ca.) years ago?

PaceAdvantage
11-27-2004, 08:29 PM
Exactly Hoss (was he arrested?) I do remember that incident, and it is one of the reasons why I asked the legality question to begin with.

JustRalph
11-27-2004, 09:31 PM
Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
I thought I read that in many jurisdictions (including NY), it is TECHNICALLY illegal for someone to WAGER someone else's money at the track (even though it is done all the time).

Anyone else concur?

I read that also. But if I remember right the wager had to be placed "onsite" at a track. If he puts it in thru brisbet et al, who knows?

Equineer
11-27-2004, 10:35 PM
Originally posted by ceejay
I also wonder about the IRS implications if he/she wins. About deals like the eBay scheme, both legal and illegal income are taxable, so if a partnership hits a big P6, Form W-2G and Form 5754 should both come into play to identify each of the recipients and what they won.

How do BRIS/AmericaTab propose to handle multiple recipients if the player pool hits a big P6? I would imagine each BRISNet account contains the information necessary for Form 5754 if they are required to treat the proposition as a gambling win divided among multiple recipients.

JustRalph
11-28-2004, 01:11 AM
Originally posted by Equineer
How do BRIS/AmericaTab propose to handle multiple recipients if the player pool hits a big P6?

Five days after the last one I got an IRS form in the mail

For 20 bucks I got $126

It was listed as $126

If you read the rules it says that you are responsible for the taxes and you agree to their terms.

ceejay
11-28-2004, 06:01 PM
$61560 in the pool this time

1,WT,2,3,6,7,8,10,WT,3,4,5,7,WT,1,2,3,6,7,9,WT,1,3 ,5,9,11,WT,3,6,7,8,11,14,16 $10080.00
2,WT,2,3,6,7,8,10,WT,3,4,5,7,WT,1,2,3,6,7,9,WT,1,3 ,5,9,11,WT,3,6,7,8,11,14,16 $10080.00
5,WT,2,3,6,7,8,10,WT,3,4,5,7,WT,1,2,3,6,7,9,WT,1,3 ,5,9,11,WT,3,6,7,8,11,14,16 $10080.00
6,WT,2,3,6,7,8,10,WT,3,4,5,7,WT,1,2,3,6,7,9,WT,1,3 ,5,9,11,WT,3,6,7,8,11,14,16 $10080.00
7,WT,2,3,6,7,8,10,WT,3,4,5,7,WT,1,2,3,6,7,9,WT,1,3 ,5,9,11,WT,3,6,7,8,11,14,16 $10080.00 Hollywood Park # 5 $2 Pick-6
11,WT,2,3,6,7,8,10,WT,3,4,5,7,WT,1,2,3,6,7,9,WT,1, 3,5,9,11,WT,3,6,7,8,11,14,16 $10080.00
1,7,WT,2,8,WT,6,7,WT,1,3,6,WT,3,11,WT,3,4,5,6,7,8, 11,14,16 $864.00
1,WT,2,8,WT,3,4,7,WT,3,6,WT,3,10,11,WT,6,8,14 $216.00

tholl
11-28-2004, 09:06 PM
Originally posted by Buddha
Yea, I think that is kinda bad. either way, if you are going to make one HUGE ticket like that, why did you need 5 horses in the F&M Turf? Ok, I can see trying to get around Ouija Board and getting a price, but I thought there were only about 2 horses that could contend with her, and they finished 2nd and 3rd.

I just think with that much money for a ticket(s) there could have been better construction. Now i am not going to say that I could have done better, but I think that better could have been done.

Quote: Keilan; "extremely amateurish ticket structure".

They hit it again today, with a more expensive ticket.

Just for "fun", how about next time they do it you two post a ticket for $50,000 and we'll see how you do ?

keilan
11-28-2004, 09:27 PM
They hit it again today, with a more expensive ticket.

Just for "fun", how about next time they do it you two post a ticket for $50,000 and we'll see how you do?


The Breeders Cup ticket was amateurish; I would like to see the ticket structure on today’s pic6 before I comment further. Anyone can get lucky but they still missed a relatively easy pic6 on Breeders Day spending $21,000+ dollars.

Whatever they did today or do in the future doesn’t change the fact of what Buddha or I originally posted.

And how about you posting something of value (just for fun) regarding handicapping etc, instead of this bullshit challenge.

JustRalph
11-28-2004, 09:32 PM
anybody got the payout yet?

Alc
11-28-2004, 09:51 PM
Brisbet site says they will post the payouts on Monday.

BillW
11-28-2004, 10:03 PM
Originally posted by JustRalph
anybody got the payout yet?

Bris bet is showing about an even odds payout (28x 5of6 + 1 6of6). Withholdings will take it below even odds.

Equineer
11-29-2004, 03:19 AM
Originally posted by JustRalph
Five days after the last one I got an IRS form in the mail

For 20 bucks I got $126

It was listed as $126

If you read the rules it says that you are responsible for the taxes and you agree to their terms. Don't you have to qualify for and also file for a $30 tax refund in order to get your full $126?

Did they send you a W-2G, 5754, or both?

If these pools become popular, we shall probably see an offshore shop offer a public players pool for big events and carryovers.

rrbauer
11-29-2004, 09:15 AM
Hosshead wrote:
Isn't that what Gordon Jones was arrested for (in Ca.) years ago?

Comment: More or less. Technically he was arrested because he accepted bets at an off-track location, which at the time, was considered bookmaking.

ceejay
11-29-2004, 09:46 AM
My calculations are that the gross payout for the HOL ticket was about $1.69/$1. I would say that considering only one favorite won they need to re-consider the way they structure the bets or limit the pool size.

Equineer, I think that they sent out W2G's last time, noting the withholding. I'm not an accountant but I think that taxpayers need to file a Schedule A to claim the refund (or apply it to their tax liability). Not a problem for me.

ceejay
11-29-2004, 10:02 AM
The "players pool" made up 5.8% of the total P6 Pool, and without it HOL would have been just shy of the guarantee. Moreover, If the Players pool had taken down the ENTIRE P6 pool (assuming 20.18% takeout) the payout would only be $13.68/$1.

cj
11-29-2004, 11:48 AM
Originally posted by ceejay
If the Players pool had taken down the ENTIRE P6 pool (assuming 20.18% takeout) the payout would only be $13.68/$1.

Only? That seems like a pretty darn good return to me. This is a great idea. The only problem is they don't have enough time to play the big carryover days as they don't know in advance when they will occur.

Buddha
11-29-2004, 02:44 PM
Originally posted by tholl
Quote: Keilan; "extremely amateurish ticket structure".

They hit it again today, with a more expensive ticket.

Just for "fun", how about next time they do it you two post a ticket for $50,000 and we'll see how you do ?

I would have no problem posting a $50,000 worth of tickets next big day if they do another pool on a million dollar day. Like Keilan had said, putting $40000 into a ticket that they only go 4 or 5 deep in the toughest race, and 4 or 5 deep in the easiest race is in my opinion, amateurish.

If they do it again, I have no probs posting "my tickets"

cj
11-29-2004, 03:06 PM
I like the brute force idea, not the ticket structure. Especially for a smaller pool, like around a million, I think you would want to take a shot to hit it multiple times if lower priced horses are winning.

ElKabong
11-29-2004, 03:58 PM
Originally posted by cj
I like the brute force idea, not the ticket structure. Especially for a smaller pool, like around a million, I think you would want to take a shot to hit it multiple times if lower priced horses are winning.

I'd agree. If you thought that Chinkapin was ready/ healthy, then single him and try to hit it a few times.....Only way to go, assuming one liked Chinkapin.

If one thought he could be beat or was trying to be dumped, then I suppose trying to hit it once was the way to go, but in every pick 6 there needs to be at least one race like Chinkapin's where you take a stand one way or another....imho.

For the record....I didn't play it. I Usually play the so cal p4 lately, passed it also.

Alc
11-29-2004, 04:22 PM
Brisbet says $1.74 per $1.00 waqered.

rrbauer
11-29-2004, 04:37 PM
I used to play the P6 routinely when it was first offered at SoCal tracks and before the carryover process came to be. In the early days we would get $100k-plus pools on weekend days and often you could take down the major prize with 5 winners (4 winners got the consolation prize). Playing it "smartly" meant putting together tickets that used horses that you liked the best on the most tickets; and, horses that you like some would get some play, but not as much. There were a variety of ways to develop and structure such tickets and often as much time was spent in putting together the tickets as was spent in handicapping the card. This approach would give your bankroll a longer ride because you weren't doubling the size of your total bet everytime that you added a horse. Ultimately, I wrote some computer programs to handle the ticket building given a stated bankroll size and some handicapping input. My play was profitable over time, but my bankroll and stomach had to endure some pretty sizeable losing streaks in the shorter run. This was back in the early 80's and getting "stuck" for $15k or $20k while waiting on a bailout winner was not unusual.

After the carryover process started the game started to change. As expected many people started waiting until there was a carryover before they would play. Then double-carryovers would produce a real "fever" and the money would come in by buckets. Then the shared-betting pools among individuals started growing and pretty soon, my $800-$1200 limit on a play was peanuts and not very competitive for taking down a 6-winner prize. And, my 5-winner tickets started earning less and less. So I backed off and started playing P3's and now P'4s.

Now with the public being invited to invest in megapools such as the ones at BrisBet, etc., the P6 game will change again. And, so long as those guys can pony up $50k, or so, with the "little" guys getting their $100 shares then they are favorites to take down the big pools with little regard to the inefficiency of their approach. Over time others will emulate their approach and pretty soon the dog will be chasing its tail to see who can put in the biggest ticket.

From my perspective, there has to be a better way to win a few hundred dollars.

Suff
11-29-2004, 06:01 PM
I have'nt played it yet... But i might. Only because it seems Like fun to me..

What I may like to see them do is offer a ... 20..00 pool, a 50.00 pool and a 100.00 pool. You throw in a 100 aand only go 25 ways if it pops... something like that.


I picked up the Following from an e-mail thingy dingy I monitor... Not my words but Interesting none the less...





$1,000,000 guaranteed Pic 6 on Sunday 11/28 at Hollywood.

Tough fields...well, full ones, and no apparent singles.

Only one fave (and a very slight fave at that) wins.

Win mutuels: 9.20, 14.00, 11.20, 6.60, 34.20, 10.80

Parlay value: ~$109,895. Pick 6 doesn't even pay $100K ($97,708).

I'll guess that the holders of the perfect tickets (there were
6 of them) have that "yeah, I won, but..." feeling.

JMHO, but the P4 is the place to be out there...yesterday, it
paid $3630 vs. parlay value of $1706. Very nice




As a BRIS.bet acct holder I participated in their
"Players' Pool" which raised $61,000 for this P6 bet.
(This pool returned 400% to participants on the BC Pix
6 BTW.)

Don't know if this pool effectively lowers prices but
it did hit. From site:

The Player's Pool Pick 6

hit 6 of 6 paying $97,708 and had 28 consolation
tickets paying $1,225.60 each before taxes. Total ROI
will be displayed on Monday. Congratulations to all
and to Brad Anderson, Rich Nilsen, and Ron Ruchtie for
putting together the winning tickets.

Figures to be a 216% return this time out. OK by me:)

Should add I agree whole-heartedly on P4's being the
way to go- P6's just too expensive to play alone- but
P3's and P4's fit me to a T.

BillW
11-29-2004, 10:44 PM
The flaw in the logic of the second quote is that the wager returns 216% in the same manner that an even odds wager returns 200%. :eek:

ceejay
02-28-2005, 08:38 PM
They are doing a "players pool" again: for Big Cap day.

toetoe
02-28-2005, 10:01 PM
Let's all post $50,000-buckers, not as a contest per se, but just to expose these guys. Keep it fun, but BURY 'EM !!

RRBauer speaks the truth. The big change in the pick-six, and I think rrb was referring to this, came when they decided to drop the daily consolation %age from 50 to 30. The multiple fives that added up and kept them going, shrank by 40%.

I'd love to see some days, like the impossible S.A. Handicap, pay out all, be it for 6, 5, or whatever. It could be the day after someone hit for six, so no cons. winners from the previous day can kick up a fuss.

And don't forget the tax considerations. RR, I'm sure you ran into this --- you cash a bunch of 5-of-6 signups, you're thousands ahead for the meeting, and you start running out of cash, as the withholdings won't return for a long time.

ceejay
04-25-2005, 08:32 PM
BRIS is doing another pool going after the HOL P6 carry-over 4/27/05

rrbauer
04-26-2005, 09:36 AM
BRIS is doing another pool going after the HOL P6 carry-over 4/27/05

So here's everyone's chance to play against the "experts". Tomorrow, you can post your Hollywood P6 ticket(s) right in this thread and see if you can "hit" it for less than $50K. In fact, the bragging rights go to the poster that hits it for the least amount of investment. The Carryover is $555k so the total pool will be huge....IMHO $3+mil.

Tickets with All-All-All, etc. are not appreciated! :)

Pace Cap'n
04-26-2005, 10:16 AM
Can we use all-all in the last two races?

rrbauer
04-26-2005, 01:49 PM
Can we use all-all in the last two races?

I think that you use "All" when you reach a point in the multi-race sequence where if you're still alive, that you have a ticket with serious equity in it and you're using "All" because it's both appropriate from a handicapping perspective, because it's a tough race; and, from a value perspective, to protect and redeem that equity.

In other words, you're at a point where failure is not an option; hence, you remove any remaining gamble. This implies that you're not holding a live ticket made up of 1st and 2nd favorites!

ceejay
04-26-2005, 07:45 PM
I'll bite here. My $50K fantasy tickets would be:

35/2457/1to8/189/1to6/1to8,10,11 $23040
1246/2457/238/189/14/1to8,10,11 $5760
35/136/238/189/14/1to8,10,11 $2160
35/2457/14567/189/14/1to8,10,11 $4800
35/2457/238/234567/14/1to8,10,11 $5760
35/2457/238/189/2356/1to8,10,11 $5760
35/47/38/18/14/14 $128
$3 ticket 35/2457/238/189/14/12456,11 $2592

toetoe
04-26-2005, 07:51 PM
The races don't know which order they're in. If the two most impossible heats are legs 1 and 2, spread widest or --- and here's a novel idea --- DON'T PLAY IT.

Buddha
04-26-2005, 11:49 PM
I am going to look over the card and make some tickets, but I am by no means an expert ticket structurer

Buddha
04-27-2005, 12:13 AM
I'm getting tired, and cant quite think of better strategy right now, but here is $23520 worth of tickets

3,5,6 with 2,3,6,7 with 1,3,7,8 with 1,6,8,9 with 1,3,4,5 with 1,4

3,5,6 with ALL with 1,2,3,6,7,8 with 1,5,6,8,9 with 1,4 with 1,2,4,7,11

5 with 2,3,6,7 with ALL with 1,2,3,5,6,9 with 1,3,4,5 with 1,2,4

3,5 with 2,5,6 with 1,7,8 with 1,4,5,6,8,9 with 1 with 1,2,4,7,11

3,5,6 with 2,5 with 1,2,3,7,8 with 1,2,8 with 1,3,4 with 1,4,7,11

rrbauer
04-27-2005, 11:08 AM
Before scratches I have a beginning master ticket of

4 x 4 x 5 x 4 x 4 x 4 which is 5120 combinations.

I'll post something less than that after scratches and some more work.

rrbauer
04-27-2005, 11:19 AM
The races don't know which order they're in. If the two most impossible heats are legs 1 and 2, spread widest or --- and here's a novel idea --- DON'T PLAY IT.

I know that a lot of people think that way. Indeed the majority of the players tend towards keeping themselves "live" in the early races at the expense of gambling in the later races. While the "races don't know which order they're in", you do....from the perspective of where in the pick sequence, given your handicapping opinion, value and equity will accrue to the play if you're right.

If you really think that given the way the card shapes up that the value is added early in the sequence then I would look to straight bets and Pick-3's as the betting vehicles to use to extract that value; and, not a Pick-6. And, as you indicate, there's always the option of not playing. However, carryover fever has a way of taking that option away!

rrbauer
04-27-2005, 05:13 PM
I've been running around for 3 hours so didn't get to do any fine tuning on this. Here's the horses I'd use if I were doing a big, single ticket.

R3 1,2,3,5
R4 2,4,5,7
R5 1,2,3,7,8
R6 1,4,5,8
R7 1,3,4,5
R8 1,2,4,5

My best "value" horse in each race is respectively:
1
7
8
4
5
5

Not playing it myself. Might play a P3 or two is all.

ceejay
04-27-2005, 05:35 PM
Ticket #1
1, 3, 5, 6 with
2, 4, 5, 6, 7 with
1, 2, 3, 5, 7 with
1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9 with
1, 3, 4, 5, 6 with
1, 2, 4, 5, 11
Total $35,000 Ticket




Ticket #2
# 3 with
ALL
ALL
ALL
1, 3, 4 with
1, 4
Total $5,292 Ticket




Ticket #3
($6 base instead of $2)
3 with
2, 5, 6, 7 with
2, 3 with
1 with
1, 3, 4 with
1, 2, 4
$432




Ticket #4
3 with
2, 5, 6, 7 with
2, 3 with
1, 2, 4, 5, 8 with
1, 3, 4 with
1, 2, 4
$720




Ticket #5
ALL with
2, 5, 6, 7 with
2, 3 with
1, 2 with
1, 4 with
1, 4
$768




Ticket #6
3, 5, 6 with
ALL with
2, 3 with
1, 2 with
1, 4 with
1, 4
$672


Ticket #7
3, 6 with
2, 5, 7 with
ALL with
1, 2 with
1, 4 with
1, 4
$672




Ticket #8
3, 6 with
2, 5, 7 with
2, 3 with
ALL with
1, 4 with
4
$432




Ticket #9
3, 6 with
2, 5, 7 with
2, 3 with
1, 2 with
ALL with
1, 4
$576




Ticket #10
3 with
2, 5, 7 with
2, 3 with
1, 2 with
1, 4 with
ALL
$480




Ticket #11
3, 6 with
1 with
2, 3 with
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 with
1, 4 with
4
$128

Buddha
04-27-2005, 05:35 PM
did anyone get in the pool that knows what tickets the guys played? After the first leg, here is what ceejay and I have alive. I am removing all dead horses in the races that have run, so in the first leg it is only the 6 left on our tickets since he won.

Edit. Now that I see the pool tickets posted, here are the live ones.



ceejay

6 / 2457 / 238 / 189 / 14 / 1-8,10,11 $5760

Buddha

6 with 2,3,6,7 with 1,3,7,8 with 1,6,8,9 with 1,3,4,5 with 1,4
6 with ALL with 1,2,3,6,7,8 with 1,5,6,8,9 with 1,4 with 1,2,4,7,11
6 with 2,5 with 1,2,3,7,8 with 1,2,8 with 1,3,4 with 1,4,7,11

Players Pool

Ticket #1
6 with
2, 4, 5, 6, 7 with
1, 2, 3, 5, 7 with
1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9 with
1, 3, 4, 5, 6 with
1, 2, 4, 5, 11
Total $35,000 Ticket

Ticket #5
6 with
2, 5, 6, 7 with
2, 3 with
1, 2 with
1, 4 with
1, 4
$768

Ticket #6
6 with
ALL with
2, 3 with
1, 2 with
1, 4 with
1, 4
$672

Ticket #7
6 with
2, 5, 7 with
ALL with
1, 2 with
1, 4 with
1, 4
$672

Ticket #8
6 with
2, 5, 7 with
2, 3 with
ALL with
1, 4 with
4
$432

Ticket #9
6 with
2, 5, 7 with
2, 3 with
1, 2 with
ALL with
1, 4
$576

Ticket #11
6 with
1 with
2, 3 with
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 with
1, 4 with
4
$128

rrbauer
04-27-2005, 05:55 PM
Well I didn't last long!

I do like races 4-5-6 for some P3 plays....so that's where I'm at
using the ones that I mentioned....some extra times.

Buddha
04-27-2005, 06:01 PM
ceejay

6 / 5 / 238 / 189 / 14 / 1-8,10,11 $5760

Buddha


6 with 5 with 1,2,3,6,7,8 with 1,5,6,8,9 with 1,4 with 1,2,4,7,11
6 with 5 with 1,2,3,7,8 with 1,2,8 with 1,3,4 with 1,4,7,11

Players Pool

Ticket #1
6 with
5 with
1, 2, 3, 5, 7 with
1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9 with
1, 3, 4, 5, 6 with
1, 2, 4, 5, 11
Total $35,000 Ticket

Ticket #5
6 with
5 with
2, 3 with
1, 2 with
1, 4 with
1, 4
$768

Ticket #6
6 with
5 with
2, 3 with
1, 2 with
1, 4 with
1, 4
$672

Ticket #7
6 with
5 with
ALL with
1, 2 with
1, 4 with
1, 4
$672

Ticket #8
6 with
5 with
2, 3 with
ALL with
1, 4 with
4
$432

Ticket #9
6 with
5 with
2, 3 with
1, 2 with
ALL with
1, 4
$576

rrbauer
04-27-2005, 06:07 PM
Looks like you guys are all sitting on really live tickets.
I'm alive in my P3's from race 4 and will put in a P4.

Here's my "live" P4 play:
1,2,3,7,8 with 1,4,5,8 with 4,5 with 1,5 $80
1,2,3,7,8 with 4,5,8,with 1,3 with 1,5 $60
1,2,3,7,8 with 4,5,8 with 1,3 with 2,4 $60
1,7,8 with 1 with 1,3 with 1,5 $12
1,7,8 with 1 with 4,5 with 2,4 $12
1,7,8 with 4,5,8 with 1,3 with 2,4 $36

Total $260 (A real play)

Buddha
04-27-2005, 06:30 PM
ceejay

6 / 5 / 3 / 189 / 14 / 1-8,10,11 $5760

Buddha


6 with 5 with 3 with 1,5,6,8,9 with 1,4 with 1,2,4,7,11
6 with 5 with 3 with 1,2,8 with 1,3,4 with 1,4,7,11

Players Pool

Ticket #1
6 with
5 with
3 with
1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9 with
1, 3, 4, 5, 6 with
1, 2, 4, 5, 11
Total $35,000 Ticket

Ticket #5
6 with
5 with
3 with
1, 2 with
1, 4 with
1, 4
$768

Ticket #6
6 with
5 with
3 with
1, 2 with
1, 4 with
1, 4
$672

Ticket #7
6 with
5 with
3 with
1, 2 with
1, 4 with
1, 4
$672

Ticket #8
6 with
5 with
3 with
ALL with
1, 4 with
4
$432

Ticket #9
6 with
5 with
3 with
1, 2 with
ALL with
1, 4
$576

rrbauer
04-27-2005, 06:34 PM
Still alive in the R4 Pick-3
Have $1 live to 4: $87.60; 5: $120.70; 8: $88.70


Still alive in the R5 Pick-4
1,2,3,7,8 with 1,4,5,8 with 4,5 with 1,5 $80
1,2,3,7,8 with 4,5,8,with 1,3 with 1,5 $60
1,2,3,7,8 with 4,5,8 with 1,3 with 2,4 $60

The Pick-6 players look like a lock.

rrbauer
04-27-2005, 07:00 PM
How do you spell Dead P3 and Dead P4

RIP :confused:

Buddha
04-27-2005, 07:01 PM
Buddha

6 with 5 with 3 with 2 with 1,3,4 with 1,4,7,11

Players Pool

Ticket #1
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
1, 3, 4, 5, 6 with
1, 2, 4, 5, 11
Total $35,000 Ticket

Ticket #5
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
1, 4 with
1, 4
$768

Ticket #6
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
1, 4 with
1, 4
$672

Ticket #7
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
1, 4 with
1, 4
$672

Ticket #8
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
1, 4 with
4
$432

Ticket #9
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
ALL with
1, 4
$576

Buddha
04-27-2005, 07:28 PM
Looks like the players pool is going to make a fortune. Legitimate chance at $10 or $12 worth of 6 of 6 tickets. not to mention the numerous 5/6

Buddha

6 with 5 with 3 with 2 with 4 with 1,4,7,11

Players Pool

Ticket #1
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
4 with
1, 2, 4, 5, 11
Total $35,000 Ticket

Ticket #5
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
4 with
1, 4
$768

Ticket #6
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
4 with
1, 4
$672

Ticket #7
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
4 with
1, 4
$672

Ticket #8
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
4 with
4
$432

Ticket #9
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
4 with
1, 4
$576

Speed Figure
04-27-2005, 07:35 PM
I think there ticket cost more than the pick 6 will pay. If the 4 wins I can't see it paying more than it cost, but you never know.

rrbauer
04-27-2005, 07:37 PM
Interesting.
Players ticket has the 5 on one ticket

Buddha doesn't have it

That's my "value" hoss in this race.

Tee
04-27-2005, 07:46 PM
Interesting.
Players ticket has the 5 on one ticket

Buddha doesn't have it

That's my "value" hoss in this race.

Hey Rich,

I'll take a horse exiting the same race as yours as my value hoss.
#7 Rhodes Leer

Buddha
04-27-2005, 07:59 PM
Buddha

6 with 5 with 3 with 2 with 4 with 4

Woot Woot, I hit it :)

The players pool has $12 worth of $2 winning tickets, and countless 5/6s

Players Pool

Ticket #1
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
4 with
4
Total $35,000 Ticket

Ticket #5
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
4 with
4
$768

Ticket #6
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
4 with
4
$672

Ticket #7
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
4 with
4
$672

Ticket #8
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
4 with
4
$432

Ticket #9
6 with
5 with
3 with
2 with
4 with
4
$576

Buddha
04-27-2005, 08:00 PM
$2 Pick-6 6/5/3,4/2/4/4,9 5 of 6 $143.60
$2 Pick-6 6/5/3,4/2/4/4,9 6 of 6 $10768.80

That would be $64,720.80 of 6/6 tickets for the pool

rrbauer
04-27-2005, 08:02 PM
$2 PK6 (6/5/3,4/2/4/4,9) $10,768.80
$2 PK6 (6/5/3,4/2/4/4,9) 5 of 6 $143.60

rrbauer
04-27-2005, 08:04 PM
$2 Pick-6 6/5/3,4/2/4/4,9 5 of 6 $143.60
$2 Pick-6 6/5/3,4/2/4/4,9 6 of 6 $10768.80

That would be $64,720.80 of 6/6 tickets for the pool

ROI?

betovernetcapper
04-27-2005, 08:05 PM
Congratulations Buddha :jump: :jump:

Buddha
04-27-2005, 11:34 PM
ROI?
Taken from WatchandWager.com

Pool of $45,190


Approximately $1.35 per dollar will be returned based on $61,241.20 in winnings
6 of 6 Paid $10,768.60 each
5 of 6 Paid $143.60 each

Totals and amounts per dollar paid after taxes will be displayed tomorrow. We hope to have accounts adjusted by the end of business on Thursday.

betovernetcapper
04-27-2005, 11:59 PM
So if you'd bet $10 in the Players Pic 6 you'd get back $13.50. If you'd bet $10 to place on the even money favorite in the last race, you'd get back $14. Love this game.

Buddha
04-28-2005, 12:08 AM
So if you'd bet $10 in the Players Pic 6 you'd get back $13.50. If you'd bet $10 to place on the even money favorite in the last race, you'd get back $14. Love this game.

And I believe everyone is taxed, meaning they send a w2-g to the IRS for a $13.50 win if you put $10 in. At least, I am pretty sure they did that with the previous ones.

rrbauer
04-28-2005, 07:54 AM
Hey Rich,

I'll take a horse exiting the same race as yours as my value hoss.
#7 Rhodes Leer

Comment:
We're 2nd and 4th respectively.....we have half the super!
-------------------------------------------------------
Buddha wrote:
"6 with 5 with 3 with 2 with 4 with 4

Woot Woot, I hit it "

Comment:
Aha, redeemed yourself with a P6 after missing all those DD's at Keeneland!

Good job.....

ceejay
04-28-2005, 09:14 AM
And I believe everyone is taxed, meaning they send a w2-g to the IRS for a $13.50 win if you put $10 in. At least, I am pretty sure they did that with the previous ones.
I think that $1.35/1 must be after taxes or mistaken. They had 6 of 6 six times @ 10768.6 ($64661.6) plus 5 of 6 something like 84 times.

I kind of like the way they constructed the tickets this time. They apparrently sensed a high likelihood of a chalky sequence, and constructed the tickets for multiple wins if that happened, but with sufficent spread and "alls" to cash likely once or twice if a longshot came in.

Win or lose I got my $20 worth of fun out of the pool!

stuball
04-28-2005, 09:37 AM
I only got in the first pool cause I can't see the positive side to winning
and getting back less than even money ---then have it taxed......

The pool should be limited, but with bris running it they want as much $$$
as possible to pass thru their venue....and when you go for pools of this size
you would have to hit it alone to have a sizable gain.....unless you are playing if for fun.....in that case go for it..

Myabe I am way off base here ---What do you think?

Stuball :bang: :bang: :bang:

ceejay
04-28-2005, 12:27 PM
Stu,

I wouldn't have played the pool if I didn't already have a signer this year. You just can't expect anything life-changing from such a large pool. Even if they took the ENTIRE 5/6 and 6/6 pool (near impossible), the return would be something like 43-1 with a 2.6MM pool & 25% takeout.

Maybe they should limit the pool to some size ($10 or 20K), but that's not likely.

One thing that this shows me is the power of a big ticket. I know that one of the TVG tickets given out was a winner, but it is pretty rare win the P6 on a ticket that I would be willing to afford (although my personal $36 wager had 4/6, missing in leg 1 and 4).