Belmont to be 9 furlongs

[dilanesp]

I don't get why they are doing this, I don't understand why they think 3 year olds can't go 12 furlongs in late June, and any TC winner this year will be cheaper than a paper face mask.

https://mobile.twitter.com/paulickreport/status/1262776107310419977

[Bigadam119]

All I can say is that’s terrible

[NJDfan1711]

This is odd. With all sports having been postponed for a while now and some starting to resume, you'd think they'd resume in areas that have been the least affected first, and then gradually re-open in all parts of the country...but instead, they decide to resume with the state that's been hit by FAR the hardest and make what's usually the last race, first?!

I don't live in NY anymore, but I still have a ton of family there, and obviously I pay attention to the news, and aren't we only like a few weeks or a month removed from that entire city/state basically being overwhelmed from the virus? How exactly does it make sense to have the Belmont a month from now? I know it's spectator free, but there's still going to be people out at restaurants and bars watching it and betting on it, not to mention probably having some home gatherings and what not.... plus the Derby isn't until September, so why the rush to have the Belmont in June only to have a two and a half month break in between?

I can understand the four major sports having a hard time scheduling things because arenas and stadiums are shared by multiple teams and sports, not to mention concerts and other events, but race tracks aren't used for anything else, so I really just don't get it.

[Rutgers]

I don't get why they are doing this, I don't understand why they think 3 year olds can't go 12 furlongs in late June, and any TC winner this year will be cheaper than a paper face mask.

https://mobile.twitter.com/paulickreport/status/1262776107310419977


How many trainers do you think we're prepping their 3 year old dirt horses to run a 12 furlong race in June after racing in NY stopped in March with no announced restart date?

[PaceAdvantage]

This is odd. With all sports having been postponed for a while now and some starting to resume, you'd think they'd resume in areas that have been the least affected first, and then gradually re-open in all parts of the country...but instead, they decide to resume with the state that's been hit by FAR the hardest and make what's usually the last race, first?!

I don't live in NY anymore, but I still have a ton of family there, and obviously I pay attention to the news, and aren't we only like a few weeks or a month removed from that entire city/state basically being overwhelmed from the virus? How exactly does it make sense to have the Belmont a month from now? I know it's spectator free, but there's still going to be people out at restaurants and bars watching it and betting on it, not to mention probably having some home gatherings and what not.... plus the Derby isn't until September, so why the rush to have the Belmont in June only to have a two and a half month break in between?

I can understand the four major sports having a hard time scheduling things because arenas and stadiums are shared by multiple teams and sports, not to mention concerts and other events, but race tracks aren't used for anything else, so I really just don't get it.What's not to get? The racing will be spectator-free.

If restaurants and bars are open, people will be there regardless of whether or not the Belmont Stakes is being run...

People really need to start letting go of the panic, or else we'll be like this forever.

We flattened the curve. That was the whole point. Time to move on.

(I live right in the middle of the "overwhelmed," and quite frankly, I think "overwhelmed" is a media creation...all of the auxiliary healthcare facilities set up to deal with COVID, except one (Javits center), saw basically zero action)

[classhandicapper]

I don't know what the thinking was, but generally the 3yos are slowly stretched out from 8.5F to 9F to 10F and then ultimately 12F. It seems a little unnatural to go from 9F to 12F and then back to 10F for the Derby when a lot of people don't think modern lightly raced young horses can handle 10F and 12F very well to begin with. I have no idea what other scheduling considerations there were (when is the Wood Memorial?), but they are hell bent on Saratoga. So I don't think they'd run the Belmont at Saratoga.

[cj]

I don't know what the thinking was, but generally the 3yos are slowly stretched out from 8.5F to 9F to 10F and then ultimately 12F. It seems a little unnatural to go from 9F to 12F and then back to 10F for the Derby when a lot of people don't think modern lightly raced young horses can handle 10F and 12F very well to begin with. I have no idea what other scheduling considerations there were (when is the Wood Memorial?), but they are hell bent on Saratoga. So I don't think they'd run the Belmont at Saratoga.

I guess there are no great answers. Nine furlongs will make it a great betting race with little relevance historically. Probably a lot of 2020 will be looked upon that way in all sports.

[dilanesp]

How many trainers do you think we're prepping their 3 year old dirt horses to run a 12 furlong race in June after racing in NY stopped in March with no announced restart date?

This notion that you need to "prep" horses a month in advance to run 12 furlongs rather than 10 is something that trainers of older generations would completely mock.

Honestly, how many horses are EVER "prepped" for the Belmont? Most of them come out of other races at shorter distances, including TC races. It isn't like ANY trainer of any 3 year old is circling a Saturday in June on the calendar and saying "I will slowly work my horse up to 1 1/2 miles".

They can run different distances. It isn't some mystical feat of training that they are able to do this. They do it all the time.

The horses could have run 1 1/2 miles in late June. Belmont just caved to some big-name trainers who wanted to make the race easier to win.

[dilanesp]

I don't know what the thinking was, but generally the 3yos are slowly stretched out from 8.5F to 9F to 10F and then ultimately 12F. It seems a little unnatural to go from 9F to 12F and then back to 10F for the Derby when a lot of people don't think modern lightly raced young horses can handle 10F and 12F very well to begin with. I have no idea what other scheduling considerations there were (when is the Wood Memorial?), but they are hell bent on Saratoga. So I don't think they'd run the Belmont at Saratoga.

If Belmont had made the race 12 furlongs, they would have gotten entries.

At any rate, here's a modest proposal. Let's make the DERBY 1 1/2 miles. Or the Preakness. Plenty of time to prep.

Or is this just a one way ratchet, where we eventually run a TC race at 5 furlongs on the turf (which my 90 year old mother sarcastically refers to as "the classic American distance").

[NJDfan1711]

What's not to get? The racing will be spectator-free.

If restaurants and bars are open, people will be there regardless of whether or not the Belmont Stakes is being run...

People really need to start letting go of the panic, or else we'll be like this forever.

We flattened the curve. That was the whole point. Time to move on.

(I live right in the middle of the "overwhelmed," and quite frankly, I think "overwhelmed" is a media creation...all of the auxiliary healthcare facilities set up to deal with COVID, except one (Javits center), saw basically zero action)
Oh I'm not panicking at all - I don't wear a mask, haven't worn one at all. It's not that I'm not taking this seriously, but to me it's pretty easy to practice good hygiene and stay healthy while still maintaining your life and going about your normal business. So I'm with ya.

Frankly I think they could have the race with spectators - just reduce the number, and mandate that people stay spread out. I know it's hard to enforce, so it probably wouldn't be the best idea, but it goes to my point above about just using common sense. When you go to the grocery store, it's not hard to stand far enough away from someone when you're waiting on line. Or when you go to the gas station it's not hard to touch what is certainly a dirty handle/pump, and then just NOT touch your face or pick your nose. Likewise, it shouldn't be hard to attend a large-gathering race event and stay a few feet apart from others in attendance. But alas, that's too much to ask from humanity I suppose.

As I mentioned, I know it's spectator-free, it just still seems odd to me that, for reasons unknown, they'd make the Belmont the first race of the Triple Crown when the NY-area was the hardest hit in the country. I guess I'm just curious as to the logic behind it.

[castaway01]

As I mentioned, I know it's spectator-free, it just still seems odd to me that, for reasons unknown, they'd make the Belmont the first race of the Triple Crown when the NY-area was the hardest hit in the country. I guess I'm just curious as to the logic behind it.

I don't understand why you think Belmont is the first track back racing. They're not the first track back, at all. A few tracks kept running through all of this. A few more are starting racing each week.

Churchill had to pick a date for the Derby that was far enough in advance that (1) it wouldn't get cancelled, (2) people could make travel plans. So they picked September. The Preakness doesn't mean anything if it doesn't follow the Derby, so they picked October.

With the Belmont, if they run 4 weeks later, they're almost exactly the same time as the Breeders Cup. They want to make this a big day of racing with multiple Grade 1 races. Can't do that on Breeders Cup weekend. Can't do it in December with the weather iffy, football in full swing, etc. But you can do it in the summer.

[biggestal99]

The “test of a champion” is reduced to just another race for 3 year olds.

Classic. loL.

Allan

[classhandicapper]

I guess there are no great answers. Nine furlongs will make it a great betting race with little relevance historically. Probably a lot of 2020 will be looked upon that way in all sports.

Here's the 64k question.

Are they going to run the Met Mile that day or have they learned what diminishing returns means yet? ;)

I'm still waiting for them to figure out that any 100k-150k listed stake on Belmont day instead would still handle a fortune, have no negative impact on attendance, but save the Met for another day where it could turn another card into a special event day with a larger handle and more attendance.

Who cares whether the Met handles more on Memorial Day or Belmont day when it used to make Memorial Day special, bring in extra people, and increase the handle for the entire card in the old days.

[Spalding No!]

Barclay Tagg, trainer of Tiz The Law, was quoted as saying he'd prefer the Belmont to remain 12 furlongs to maintain its classic status. I'm not shocked by the distance change, but I wonder how much the higher ups at NYRA debated between 9 furlongs and 10 furlongs, since 10 furlongs is considered a "classic distance".

At any rate, where one tradition falls by the wayside (at least for this year), perhaps other more deplorable traditions will fall by the wayside, too. Namely, the ducking and diving and separating of top class horses throughout the year.

The Sackatoga owner guy politicked for this along with moving the Travers up on the calendar. However, he also skipped the Arkansas Derby in part because he didn't want to "face Baffert". Is he now going to backpedal out of a shortened Belmont under the pretense that its classic status is now suspect thereby avoiding Baffert until perhaps the Kentucky Derby?

Meanwhile, will Bob Baffert, who said he would not run in a 12 furlong Belmont...by the way, who cares?...Baffert already doesn't run in the Belmont even in a normal year...he'll only run if he has a TC candidate...that's been clear since he ducked the race with Preakness winner Lookin' At Lucky...outside of Justify (and his lead blocker) and American Pharaoh I think he's run only 2 horses in the Belmont in the past 15 years...anyways, will Baffert run ALL 3 of his top 3yos in the Baffert-approved classic Belmont? Or will he treat it like any other race and send one over and keep one for the Los Alamitos Derby and another for the Ohio Derby?

At any rate, I petition Martin Panza to bring back the Lawrence Realization later this year and also put it back on the dirt where it used to be. That way there's at least one 12 furlong race for 3yos in New York this year.

[jay68802]

Here's the 64k question.

Are they going to run the Met Mile that day or have they learned what diminishing returns means yet? ;)

I'm still waiting for them to figure out that any 100k-150k listed stake on Belmont day instead would still handle a fortune, have no negative impact on attendance, but save the Met for another day where it could turn another card into a special event day with a larger handle and more attendance.

Who cares whether the Met handles more on Memorial Day or Belmont day when it used to make Memorial Day special, bring in extra people, and increase the handle for the entire card in the old days.

You are confusing what is more important to the industry, handle or fans.

[dilanesp]

Barclay Tagg, trainer of Tiz The Law, was quoted as saying he'd prefer the Belmont to remain 12 furlongs to maintain its classic status. I'm not shocked by the distance change, but I wonder how much the higher ups at NYRA debated between 9 furlongs and 10 furlongs, since 10 furlongs is considered a "classic distance".

At any rate, where one tradition falls by the wayside (at least for this year), perhaps other more deplorable traditions will fall by the wayside, too. Namely, the ducking and diving and separating of top class horses throughout the year.

The Sackatoga owner guy politicked for this along with moving the Travers up on the calendar. However, he also skipped the Arkansas Derby in part because he didn't want to "face Baffert". Is he now going to backpedal out of a shortened Belmont under the pretense that its classic status is now suspect thereby avoiding Baffert until perhaps the Kentucky Derby?

Meanwhile, will Bob Baffert, who said he would not run in a 12 furlong Belmont...by the way, who cares?...Baffert already doesn't run in the Belmont even in a normal year...he'll only run if he has a TC candidate...that's been clear since he ducked the race with Preakness winner Lookin' At Lucky...outside of Justify (and his lead blocker) and American Pharaoh I think he's run only 2 horses in the Belmont in the past 15 years...anyways, will Baffert run ALL 3 of his top 3yos in the Baffert-approved classic Belmont? Or will he treat it like any other race and send one over and keep one for the Los Alamitos Derby and another for the Ohio Derby?

At any rate, I petition Martin Panza to bring back the Lawrence Realization later this year and also put it back on the dirt where it used to be. That way there's at least one 12 furlong race for 3yos in New York this year.

Quality post.

[NJDfan1711]

This notion that you need to "prep" horses a month in advance to run 12 furlongs rather than 10 is something that trainers of older generations would completely mock.

Honestly, how many horses are EVER "prepped" for the Belmont? Most of them come out of other races at shorter distances, including TC races. It isn't like ANY trainer of any 3 year old is circling a Saturday in June on the calendar and saying "I will slowly work my horse up to 1 1/2 miles".

They can run different distances. It isn't some mystical feat of training that they are able to do this. They do it all the time.

The horses could have run 1 1/2 miles in late June. Belmont just caved to some big-name trainers who wanted to make the race easier to win.

To me this is akin to pitch counts in baseball where people think there's some magical wall at the 100 pitch mark and a pitcher needs to be pulled immediately upon reaching that mark in a game, like they're suddenly gonna forget how to throw a baseball, or that the velocity is gonna go from 95MPH to 65 after the 101st pitch.

The difference being that those are humans, and they can tell a manager/coach if they're exhausted and should be pulled from the game. Horses on the other hand have no such voice, and it's difficult to tell exactly if/when a horse is reaching such a point.

Maybe trainers aren't physically circling the Belmont on the calendar and using it as a mark to train their horses for, but I believe some may do that symbolically in their mind, and I think you're oversimplifying running in general. It's no different than a person running. You could run a mile everyday for two weeks and probably get good at it, where you're running consistent times and it doesn't seem like a big deal - but after two weeks you try to go a mile and a half, or even just a mile and a quarter - that extra 1/4 mile is going to make a difference, and you may struggle. Maybe just the first time or two as you get used to it, but because you've never done it before you're going to be winded.

Again, not saying everyone puts emphasis on it, but to totally disregard it is a bit naïve I think.

[classhandicapper]

You are confusing what is more important to the industry, handle or fans.

I'm not sure what you mean.

I think putting the Met on it's own card with a supporting stake or two would be better for everyone because it used to have enormous value on its own. Now it's just a prelim generating diminishing returns on the Belmont undercard.

IMO, it never made sense to measure the success or failure of the move just by how much the Met handles. You could run a statebred maiden 35k on Belmont day and it would handle a lot, let alone a nice listed stake.

The Met by itself used to make an entire card attractive enough to have to go to the track and ultimately bet more on all 10 races. It's doesn't do that for the Belmont card.

[dilanesp]

To me this is akin to pitch counts in baseball where people think there's some magical wall at the 100 pitch mark and a pitcher needs to be pulled immediately upon reaching that mark in a game, like they're suddenly gonna forget how to throw a baseball, or that the velocity is gonna go from 95MPH to 65 after the 101st pitch.

The difference being that those are humans, and they can tell a manager/coach if they're exhausted and should be pulled from the game. Horses on the other hand have no such voice, and it's difficult to tell exactly if/when a horse is reaching such a point.

Maybe trainers aren't physically circling the Belmont on the calendar and using it as a mark to train their horses for, but I believe some may do that symbolically in their mind, and I think you're oversimplifying running in general. It's no different than a person running. You could run a mile everyday for two weeks and probably get good at it, where you're running consistent times and it doesn't seem like a big deal - but after two weeks you try to go a mile and a half, or even just a mile and a quarter - that extra 1/4 mile is going to make a difference, and you may struggle. Maybe just the first time or two as you get used to it, but because you've never done it before you're going to be winded.

Again, not saying everyone puts emphasis on it, but to totally disregard it is a bit naïve I think.

One piece of background to this- thoroughbreds back in the day ran as much as 4 miles, and they still do regularly race far more than 1 1/2 miles in many parts of the world.

There's literally nothing magical about 1 1/2 miles as opposed to 1 1/8 miles, where they "hit the wall" like novice marathon runners do. Both distances are well within the capacities of ordinary thoroughbreds.

[CheckMark]

I don't get why they are doing this, I don't understand why they think 3 year olds can't go 12 furlongs in late June, and any TC winner this year will be cheaper than a paper face mask.

https://mobile.twitter.com/paulickreport/status/1262776107310419977

Same here

Backwards Triple Crown for an already backwards world!

[GaryG]

Many races, such as te CCA Oaks, have been shortened in distance, but I thought the Belmont was untouchable. This year's winner should get the mother of all asterisks.

We don't breed classic stayers anymore, but plenty of fast, unsound horses that race a few times and disappear. It has become a chicken and egg situation. We breed for speed because there are few opportunities for Cup horses.

[classhandicapper]

the Grade 1, $500,000 Metropolitan Handicap, which is now July 4. The Met Mile tops a card that includes the Grade 1 Manhattan, Grade 2 Suburban, and Grade 3 Poker.

Good move. :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

Good move. :ThmbUp:

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Today it is May 19 - that means most horses will not get a prep race between now and a Belmont at any distance.
You aren't going to start at 12 and then go backwards, IMHO.

9 furlongs will be long enough for now.

[cutchemist42]

I'm fine with it for 1 year. I like the Met move.

[dilanesp]

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Today it is May 19 - that means most horses will not get a prep race between now and a Belmont at any distance.
You aren't going to start at 12 and then go backwards, IMHO.

9 furlongs will be long enough for now.

Why can't you start at 12 and then go backwards? There isn't any actual science behind these claims.

[Tor Ekman]

There isn't any actual science behind these claims.Sort of like much of the Coronavirus hysteria

[thaskalos]

The whole year will carry an asterisk, so...why shouldn't the Belmont Stakes?

[Tom]

Why can't you start at 12 and then go backwards? There isn't any actual science behind these claims.

There is less than 6 weeks before end of June. That means no preps for most of the 3yos. Last 3yo prep was May 4th, or so.
You are not going to gt today's owners and trainers starting at a mile and a half when most have never been 9, many 8.5.
You don't get many for a normal Belmont stake anymore.
With all the other tracks opening, and many other Gr1 races for 9 furlongs coming up quickly, going for a 12 F Belmont now seems pretty much not a very good idea.

[Tom]

Why can't you start at 12 and then go backwards? There isn't any actual science behind these claims.

Well, the road to the Derby has been stretching out gradually for decades. NYRA - 6-7-8-9 at Aqueduct, 8.5 furlongs then 9 furlongs at all other prep tracks. The only backward mover if the Preakness. So it would seem to be the historical way it goes.

And NYRA decided going 12 was not in it's best interest, so there' that....

[cj]

I'm sure I'll get laughed at, but what would have been wrong with flipping the Travers and Belmont this year? I mean is that any worse than chopping three furlongs off the Belmont? Sure you can run that at opposite tracks for one year.

[Tom]

Sounds good to me.
Runninganythognin late August this year for a 3yo seems to be crfaxzy - Travers will become a Plan B for the one who don't make it to the Derby.

I thought swap Travers and Jim Dandy, then do a Belmont 12 furlongs on BC weekend, for those not aspiring to take on the older horse in the Classic.

I just don't see the Belmont as being any kind of magnet for the better 3yos this year.

[Bigadam119]

Also, did you notice the purses without the slot money. They all went down by at least 50%

[Appy]

The Belmont is far and away my fave of the TC races. I know one thing for sure. My Belmont betting dollars will be nowhere near usual this year. If they're going to make the Belmont Stakes just another race, that's exactly how I'll approach it.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not having a huge problem with any of these Tripe Crown issues.

We might have gotten a better schedule if all the states had similar outbreaks, they were all handling it the same way, and the tracks were working together, but that's not our reality.

The only way it will get very controversial is if one horse wins the "Triple Crown".

However, that may be even less likely now than usual.

People have been arguing for years that the close spacing makes it tough to win the Triple Crown. The way it is now, I think you can argue the races are too spaced. I think we are going to see three very good individual races with fewer of the same horses running against each other this year than we see in the typical Triple Crown series. Some of the Belmont horses will get hurt, not develop, or go off form by time the Derby/Preakness come along and some new top 3 year olds will pop up in the summer.

If someone does pull it off, the internet is going to explode. :lol:

[the little guy]

Also, did you notice the purses without the slot money. They all went down by at least 50%

Yes and no. Stakes purses were reduced to attempt to more evenly distribute available money for horsemen at all levels. Stakes purses are being cut everywhere for this reason, so much so that the Graded Stakes committee changed required purse levels for each grading.

We didn’t just lose the slot money, we also lost handle, the other component of purses.

[Spalding No!]

I'm sure I'll get laughed at, but what would have been wrong with flipping the Travers and Belmont this year? I mean is that any worse than chopping three furlongs off the Belmont? Sure you can run that at opposite tracks for one year.
I thought the same; no worse as you said. Or they could just swap distances and keep the names to avoid the obvious awkwardness of the Belmont at Saratoga.

On another level, as I said before, NYRA potentially could control the 3yo division if it got assertive. There's an advantage in that it's stakes schedule is loaded with races for 3yos on the dirt. They have the Wood Memorial, the Withers (or whatever they run now the first weekend of May), the Dwyer, the Peter Pan, the Woody Stephens, the Belmont, the Jim Dandy, the Allen Jerkens, and the Travers. What other track can match that?

Furthermore, they recently developed the turf triple which is completely ruined this year by the likelihood that overseas participation will be minimal at best based on travel restrictions and the fact that Europe will be running most of its own classics and pattern races later than normal. NYRA could take some of that purse money to bolsters their minor 3yo dirt races to keep the local division robust. They might even take a race like the Belmont Derby and run it on the main track this year.

Attach a points system bonus program to the whole thing to entice the top horses to participate in multiple races and you might just get some major players to opt out of a shoe-horned in Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Might sound far fetched at first glance, but hey, $2 million was enough for Spend A Buck to forego a run at the Triple Crown back in 1985 and there wasn't even a pandemic.

[the little guy]

I thought the same; no worse as you said. Or they could just swap distances and keep the names to avoid the obvious awkwardness of the Belmont at Saratoga.

On another level, as I said before, NYRA potentially could control the 3yo division if it got assertive. There's an advantage in that it's stakes schedule is loaded with races for 3yos on the dirt. They have the Wood Memorial, the Withers (or whatever they run now the first weekend of May), the Dwyer, the Peter Pan, the Woody Stephens, the Belmont, the Jim Dandy, the Allen Jerkens, and the Travers. What other track can match that?

Furthermore, they recently developed the turf triple which is completely ruined this year by the likelihood that overseas participation will be minimal at best based on travel restrictions and the fact that Europe will be running most of its own classics and pattern races later than normal. NYRA could take some of that purse money to bolsters their minor 3yo dirt races to keep the local division robust. They might even take a race like the Belmont Derby and run it on the main track this year.

Attach a points system bonus program to the whole thing to entice the top horses to participate in multiple races and you might just get some major players to opt out of a shoe-horned in Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Might sound far fetched at first glance, but hey, $2 million was enough for Spend A Buck to forego a run at the Triple Crown back in 1985 and there wasn't even a pandemic.

Now that McPeek is heading to SA with that filly, you’re moving on to less important issues?

[Spalding No!]

Now that McPeek is heading to SA with that filly, you’re moving on to less important issues?
I'm actually mad about that as Swiss Skydiver going to Europe was one of my key points when demolishing the claim that this year's female division was one of the best in a long time. Also, I was planning on starting my first poll here at PA if she went over there: What would be more embarrassing for McPeek: (a) Swiss Skydiver running off and getting scratched in the warm up or (b) the filly actually running in the race?

And I might as well come clean on calling out Baffert to run his top 3 horses in the Belmont as he has already declared that Authentic won't run because he's slated to start in the Santa Anita Derby 2 weeks before the rescheduled Belmont and that would just be an unheard of turnaround to run in two 9 furlong races in that short amount of time.

How about this for a late season NY 3yo triple: the Jerome, the Discovery, and the Roamer? Connections of the winner of all 3 get a $50 gift card to the Dunkin' Donuts on Hempstead Turnpike to split amongst themselves.

[the little guy]

I'm actually mad about that as Swiss Skydiver going to Europe was one of my key points when demolishing the claim that this year's female division was one of the best in a long time. Also, I was planning on starting my first poll here at PA if she went over there: What would be more embarrassing for McPeek: (a) Swiss Skydiver running off and getting scratched in the warm up or (b) the filly actually running in the race?

And I might as well come clean on calling out Baffert to run his top 3 horses in the Belmont as he has already declared that Authentic won't run because he's slated to start in the Santa Anita Derby 2 weeks before the rescheduled Belmont and that would just be an unheard of turnaround to run in two 9 furlong races in that short amount of time.

How about this for a late season NY 3yo triple: the Jerome, the Discovery, and the Roamer? Connections of the winner of all 3 get a $50 gift card to the Dunkin' Donuts on Hempstead Turnpike to split amongst themselves.

Given that it is basically taking place at the Big A, at least dinner at Don Peps....or the Popeye’s in the Racino.

As for the poll, since it’s roughly pick em, I’ll take B. He’s done both so this could be the tie breaker. If she runs off and gets scratched at SA, I can only assume he will take his previous path and run her in the Acorn?

[Spalding No!]

Given that it is basically taking place at the Big A, at least dinner at Don Peps....or the Popeye’s in the Racino.
There' a Popeye's at Aqueduct and they are cutting back on purse money? They have that killer chicken sandwich, right?

As for the poll, since it’s roughly pick em, I’ll take B. He’s done both so this could be the tie breaker. If she runs off and gets scratched at SA, I can only assume he will take his previous path and run her in the Acorn?
It has to be the worst strategy in the world in the long-term. He's going to ship across the country to run in another grade 2 stakes with $100K less in purse money than the Grade 1 Acorn and probably have to face a good filly that he's already beaten on her home track (Venetian Harbor)?

Maybe I'm not giving him enough credit, maybe he's planning on running in both?

[the little guy]

There' a Popeye's at Aqueduct and they are cutting back on purse money? They have that killer chicken sandwich, right?


It has to be the worst strategy in the world in the long-term. He's going to ship across the country to run in another grade 2 stakes with $100K less in purse money than the Grade 1 Acorn and probably have to face a good filly that he's already beaten on her home track (Venetian Harbor)?

Maybe I'm not giving him enough credit, maybe he's planning on running in both?

Oddly, I’m guessing his reason for running in the Oaks over the Acorn will be two turns vs one. The irony that will be lost on him is that SA was plan B after wanting to run one mile on a straightaway.

I think there’s still a Popeye’s though I don’t think I have ventured into the Racino since 2018.

[SG4]

One thing I'll say is I'm happy to see a quality race on the dirt going 9 furlongs at Belmont. This is possibly my favorite configuration for a race anywhere in that it really gives a fair playing field to every participant & I think the elongated straight run really makes a horse earn it (similar to why I love the big 1 turn mile races on the NYRA circuit as opposed to the BC Mile events). I hate those 10f races starting on the turn at Belmont, wish they were all changed to 9f. It's not that I'm against longer races or the "classic" distance, it's just that Belmont has this unique setup where they can run this distance at 1 turn on the dirt (are they the only ones in the world?) and since they moved the Woodward to Saratoga I don't think there's any race of consequence for males at this distance during the entire year (Tonalist aside, the Peter Pan hasn't met the standard for race of consequence for awhile in my eyes).


Now especially at its reduced distance & with the spacing of races this year, I cannot believe the connections of any top horse would not try & get in this race. Real shame if Baffert is already looking elsewhere with Authentic, or any horse out of the Santa Anita Derby. Absolutely no excuse for a top 3yo to skip any leg of the triple crown this year.


Another concern with the shortened Belmont distance is won't this cannibalize the Woody Stephens on the same day? Usually the Derby & all its preps weed out the sprinters, but this year a lot more connections are probably still hopeful that their 3yo can compete in the Belmont. Also, it may be based on limited preps, but coast to coast right now doesn't the 3yo sprinter division look extremely lacking as is for quality? Am I forgetting some interesting prospects that may be waiting in the wings?

[Spalding No!]

Oddly, I’m guessing his reason for running in the Oaks over the Acorn will be two turns vs one. The irony that will be lost on him is that SA was plan B after wanting to run one mile on a straightaway.
If that's the reason it actually might prove somewhat counterproductive to her chances in the 9 furlong Kentucky Oaks (if she makes it that far). Two back she faced a paceless race and end up on the lead. Last out her jock didn't want to let the odds-on favorite--who was basically running off--clear the field and made an early move into a fast pace that paid off (though probably wouldn't have if there was anything else in the field). So based on the last 2, the horse might be inclined to show too much speed now.

This will only be compounded by running in the Santa Anita Oaks if Venetian Harbor shows up (it's questionable right now because she hasn't worked back from the Fantasy and the nominations are not out yet). They are likely to duel again and perhaps knock each other out for later in the season (call it a poor man's Meadow Star-Lite Light rivalry).

There's more to gain in the Acorn: it's a Grade 1 which she will need to build an Eclipse case and with a strong pace around one turn she might revert to her off the pace style, which is presumably more ideal for the Kentucky Oaks against a large field. I'm not even totally convinced she prefers a route anyways. She was ordinary in the Fair Grounds race, walked on the lead in Florida, and outlasted a hyped-up filly that went too fast early and caved in late at Oaklawn.

I think there’s still a Popeye’s though I don’t think I have ventured into the Racino since 2018.
Do they have Arby's in New York?

[the little guy]

If that's the reason it actually might prove somewhat counterproductive to her chances in the 9 furlong Kentucky Oaks (if she makes it that far). Two back she faced a paceless race and end up on the lead. Last out her jock didn't want to let the odds-on favorite--who was basically running off--clear the field and made an early move into a fast pace that paid off (though probably wouldn't have if there was anything else in the field). So based on the last 2, the horse might be inclined to show too much speed now.

This will only be compounded by running in the Santa Anita Oaks if Venetian Harbor shows up (it's questionable right now because she hasn't worked back from the Fantasy and the nominations are not out yet). They are likely to duel again and perhaps knock each other out for later in the season (call it a poor man's Meadow Star-Lite Light rivalry).

There's more to gain in the Acorn: it's a Grade 1 which she will need to build an Eclipse case and with a strong pace around one turn she might revert to her off the pace style, which is presumably more ideal for the Kentucky Oaks against a large field. I'm not even totally convinced she prefers a route anyways. She was ordinary in the Fair Grounds race, walked on the lead in Florida, and outlasted a hyped-up filly that went too fast early and caved in late at Oaklawn.


Do they have Arby's in New York?

To try to be fair to Kenny, he made that plan before we announced when the Acorn was going, so he could change. Will Baffert run Gamine in the Oaks or bring her to Belmont? My guess is he goes after the Grade 1 with Speach probably staying out West. Hard to see Venetian Harbor running if she hasn’t worked.

I’m proud to say I have no idea about Arby’s. It’s not pretentious enough for me.

[JustRalph]

The Belmont is far and away my fave of the TC races. I know one thing for sure. My Belmont betting dollars will be nowhere near usual this year. If they're going to make the Belmont Stakes just another race, that's exactly how I'll approach it.

What? .........the hell does that mean. A good betting race is a good betting race. Whether it’s the Belmont or The Fonner Park Hooterville Stakes.

[jay68802]

What? .........the hell does that mean. A good betting race is a good betting race. Whether it’s the Belmont or The Fonner Park Hooterville Stakes.

Not Hooterville, it's the Gus Fonner. The difference is....

[burnsy]

Under the circumstances it’s a good thing. It’s Twightlight Zone this year. You gotta take what life gives you. The uncertainty makes one feel like this is a victory if the horses show up. In times like this you have to roll with it. Why complain? It’s a tough year . Things could be worse. I don’t care about the politics , mask or whatever. We are in a crisis. If a 3 yo holds form for months to come , it’s a feat in times like this. The order or distances are secondary. This is uncharted waters. Just admit it’s freaking a historical event we are living thru. I’m 57 and nothing like this has ever happened

[dilanesp]

To try to be fair to Kenny, he made that plan before we announced when the Acorn was going, so he could change. Will Baffert run Gamine in the Oaks or bring her to Belmont? My guess is he goes after the Grade 1 with Speach probably staying out West. Hard to see Venetian Harbor running if she hasn’t worked.

I’m proud to say I have no idea about Arby’s. It’s not pretentious enough for me.

There's actually a really good Arby's in Midtown Manhattan (on 8th Avenue) that I seem to end up eating at every time I am back there.

[Tom]

Arby's is ok, but we have Amiel's Beef-a-Meal......I would fight a gang of hopped up bikers for one! :headbanger:


But no Popeye's!:(

[Magician]

Yes and no. Stakes purses were reduced to attempt to more evenly distribute available money for horsemen at all levels. Stakes purses are being cut everywhere for this reason, so much so that the Graded Stakes committee changed required purse levels for each grading.

We didn’t just lose the slot money, we also lost handle, the other component of purses.


slots account for 38% of purses. it is that simple. all this other nonsense you are spewing is just that. nonsense.


if you lost handle, but were not paying out purses due to no racing, then lost handle would not be a factor. logic 101. there should be a substantial increase in handle over the next few months. handle today is at record highs. up 176% for april. there is nothing else to bet on. will purses increase as the handle increases. no. why? no slots. casinos are dead and will be for a very long time. when 40 cents of every dollar of a purse comes from slots you live and die with the slots. it is that simple.

[Magician]

The Belmont is far and away my fave of the TC races. I know one thing for sure. My Belmont betting dollars will be nowhere near usual this year. If they're going to make the Belmont Stakes just another race, that's exactly how I'll approach it.


exactly what did you expect them to do? it had to be run in june or july due to the breeders cup and ky derby dates.



nobody is running a horse 12f. the derby has a purse of $3 million. the classic has a purse of $7 million. throw in the breeding aspect of winning those races. everyone wants to win these races like the belmont, but nobody is going to gut their horse in a 12f race off a layoff. not just for a grade 1 win which all of the top horses already have.

[classhandicapper]

And I might as well come clean on calling out Baffert to run his top 3 horses in the Belmont as he has already declared that Authentic won't run because he's slated to start in the Santa Anita Derby 2 weeks before the rescheduled Belmont and that would just be an unheard of turnaround to run in two 9 furlong races in that short amount of time.


I'm not a big fan of any of the Baffert horses yet. I have them near the top of the list with Tiz the Law like most people, but in my case that says more about my opinion of the crop than how much I like his horses. I have reason to think all three may be a bit overrated. Of the three, at least Nadal is proven under fire on an honest track against other good horses. He has a little "something" I like.

I think someone is going to break out soon. Maybe it will be one of his horses, but it could be someone like Honor AP or a new face too. IMO, the target is not that high.

[dilanesp]

exactly what did you expect them to do? it had to be run in june or july due to the breeders cup and ky derby dates.



nobody is running a horse 12f. the derby has a purse of $3 million. the classic has a purse of $7 million. throw in the breeding aspect of winning those races. everyone wants to win these races like the belmont, but nobody is going to gut their horse in a 12f race off a layoff. not just for a grade 1 win which all of the top horses already have.

Again, there's no science behind these claims. The notion that a horse can't run 1 1/2 miles without a ton of extra special preparation is silly.

Did Rags to Riches get any special preparation to beat Curlin (!) in the Belmont? They didn't even decide to run until the last minute.

[Johnny V]

What? .........the hell does that mean. A good betting race is a good betting race. Whether it’s the Belmont or The Fonner Park Hooterville Stakes.

I feel the same way. I am all for tradition but this whole sports year is in the toilet so I could care less on distance as long as it is a good betting race. Hopefully next year will be reset to normal. As another poster noted this year will be an asterisk year.

[iamt]

Again, there's no science behind these claims. The notion that a horse can't run 1 1/2 miles without a ton of extra special preparation is silly.

Did Rags to Riches get any special preparation to beat Curlin (!) in the Belmont? They didn't even decide to run until the last minute.




And then she had over 3 months off.


So by that example, a horse rushing into the Belmont on a limited prep and a late decision will miss the Derby.... no wonder they had to change the distance this year.

[dilanesp]

And then she had over 3 months off.


So by that example, a horse rushing into the Belmont on a limited prep and a late decision will miss the Derby.... no wonder they had to change the distance this year.

She was an unsound horse. How many starts did she even have after the Belmont?

[iamt]

Two.


Running her in the Belmont off a rushed prep clearly ruined her.


Based on that it would obviously be absurd for any trainer to consider doing it ever again.

[Tom]

Again, there's no science behind these claims. The notion that a horse can't run 1 1/2 miles without a ton of extra special preparation is silly.

Did Rags to Riches get any special preparation to beat Curlin (!) in the Belmont? They didn't even decide to run until the last minute.

Give it up dude. No one is talking about extra special preparation, they are talking about normal preparation and development for a three year old who hasn't run since Feb/early March, and even then was NOT geared up for a new, long distance. Reality seems to have skipped a generation in your case.

Here are the PPs for R2R - you will see she was NOT coming for a period of barely racing - she had a full spring campaign under her belt, going progressively longer and finally peaked at 12 furlongs. Note she was then off for over 3 months. That is not extra special, it was sensible, foundation building maturing.

Can you point to a Belmont winner who has had no races since Feb/early March? None come to mind. forget about science, is there any history that backs it up?

[Spalding No!]

Conquistador Cielo had an odd campaign prior to the 1982 Belmont. 3 races in 3 weeks the farthest 8.5f and the start before was the Met Mile against older 5 days earlier. Didn't start in March or April.

[Spalding No!]

Stage Door Johnny was gone from September of his 2yo year to mid-April, broke his maiden in his 2nd comeback race at a flat mile, one a 9f allowance 2 weeks later, and the Belmont 9 days after that.

[Suff]

progressively longer and finally peaked at 12 furlongs. Note she was then off for over 3 months. That is not extra special, it was sensible, foundation building maturing.

Can you point to a Belmont winner who has had no races since Feb/early March? None come to mind. forget about science, is there any history that backs it up?



Check this link. Martin Panza of NYRA.


There is a video, but fast forward to the last 30 minutes.

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/nyra-vp-martin-panza-joins-tdn-writers-room-to-talk-belmont-saratoga-life-in-the-covid-epicenter/

You have to listen to Mr. Panza describe the challenges he’s facing. He seems ok. Another OXE.

I appreciate TDN putting it together.

[Spalding No!]

Go and Go won the 1990 Belmont off 2 prep races coming in Europe. A flat mile stakes in late April and a 10 furlong stakes in May.

[Spalding No!]

Pavot won the 1945 Belmont on Jun 23 after making his 3yo debut on Jun 6 in the Withers. He ran in the Preakness in-between.

[dilanesp]

Additionally, the obvious reason there aren't more Belmont winners without a several races going itno the race is that until not that long ago, horses didn't spend months away from the racetrack to run in only a few races a year, period, except in special circumstances. So your typical Belmont winner was a horse who had a bunch of starts before the Belmont AND a bunch of starts after the Belmont.

Literally the entire spiel of modern trainers is a lie. The reason why they don't race horses very much and want all this spacing is because they don't want to lose and have their win percentages go down, along with the breeding fees for the horses if they get to stud.

The horses are fine. If you ask them to run 1 1/2 miles, they will do it. And if they are sound, they will continue to race. Horses can do amazing things, like Arts and Letters and Conquistador Cielo winning the Met Mile and Belmont. And note that Arts and Letters raced in all 3 TC races plus the Met Mile and ran well in all of them, and then went on and won stakes in the summer and fall.

We've created all sorts of mystification about how thoroughbreds are incapable of any sort of real racing schedule at all. But that's because that's what trainers and the breeding industry wants us to think.

Really, if what they say about horses were right, how the heck did we have 2 TC winners in the last 5 years? How could the horses possibly handle 3 races in 5 weeks like that?

[the little guy]

Stage Door Johnny was gone from September of his 2yo year to mid-April, broke his maiden in his 2nd comeback race at a flat mile, one a 9f allowance 2 weeks later, and the Belmont 9 days after that.

How long until we get to Man O' War?

[elhelmete]

How long until we get to Man O' War?

I'm still stuck on trying to wrap my head around anyone liking Arby's.

[cj]

I'm still stuck on trying to wrap my head around anyone liking Arby's.

That really was amazing. I mean, of all the places to eat in New York, Arby's? I had to read it three times. :lol::lol::lol:

[Spalding No!]

How long until we get to Man O' War?
Finally found one.

Imagining last raced in February when he won the Man O'War off a 3-month layoff.

Time to celebrate:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVte8cdwpXc

[Tom]

Pavot won the 1945 Belmont on Jun 23 after making his 3yo debut on Jun 6 in the Withers. He ran in the Preakness in-between.

But, who has NOT races since before St. Patrick's Day and even run in the Belmont, let alone finish in the money?

[Tom]

The horses are fine. If you ask them to run 1 1/2 miles, they will do it. And if they are sound, they will continue to race. Horses can do amazing things, like Arts and Letters and Conquistador Cielo winning the Met Mile and Belmont. And note that Arts and Letters raced in all 3 TC races plus the Met Mile and ran well in all of them, and then went on and won stakes in the summer and fall.

Really, if what they say about horses were right, how the heck did we have 2 TC winners in the last 5 years? How could the horses possibly handle 3 races in 5 weeks like that?

So you ah NO science that says an inexperience 3yo off a layoff of several months can win at a 12 furlongs in Gr1 company at 12 furlongs.
None.

Forget science, you have not even an example.

Your comments about the triple crown races have zero to do with the conditions you claim to have science about.
We have had a LOT of horse with FOUNDATION win two of the three. The number of races once in form and with a foundation in NOTHING like no foundation and no recency.

You argument is like the guy who hangs garlic in his window to keep vampires away, and tells everyone it works GREAT! NO DRACULA!!!

Science, bay bay.

[Spalding No!]

But, who has NOT races since before St. Patrick's Day and even run in the Belmont, let alone finish in the money?
Last horse to try was in 1999. Teletable from the uber-successful Robert Perez-Alfredo Callejas partnership. He ran 11th, beating one horse.

Shockingly, he did not start his career in Panama.

[classhandicapper]

Intuitively, it makes more sense to me to build a young horse's stamina by slowly stretching it out. I think the idea of getting a few routes under a horse's belt, then slowly stretching it out from from 9F to 10F and then ultimately 12F is more logical than jumping straight from 8.5F or 9F all the way to 12F.

There are probably a few horses out there that would do fine at 12f that have trainers that could get them ready for the task now. But in general, IMO, the exceptional horses and trainers that can do it shouldn't be what guides the schedule.

Most of these young lightly raced horses are probably not ready for 12F if they are suited to it at all.

I guess you could quibble about whether the Belmont should be 9f or 10F, but a lot of these horses have missed preps and 9F seems perfectly reasonable to me in a giant asterisk of a year.

[Tom]

Last horse to try was in 1999. Teletable from the uber-successful Robert Perez-Alfredo Callejas partnership. He ran 11th, beating one horse.

Shockingly, he did not start his career in Panama.

Going back to 1995, I ground one more - who ran waaaaay back.

[Tom]

Intuitively, it makes more sense to me to build a young horse's stamina by slowly stretching it out. I think the idea of getting a few routes under a horse's belt, then slowly stretching it out from from 9F to 10F and then ultimately 12F is more logical than jumping straight from 8.5F or 9F all the way to 12F.

There are probably a few horses out there that would do fine at 12f that have trainers that could get them ready for the task now. But in general, IMO, the exceptional horses and trainers that can do it shouldn't be what guides the schedule.

Most of these young lightly raced horses are probably not ready for 12F if they are suited to it at all.

I guess you could quibble about whether the Belmont should be 9f or 10F, but a lot of these horses have missed preps and 9F seems perfectly reasonable to me in a giant asterisk of a year.

To be honest, I would like to see it go a flat mile.
There is not triple crown season this year, might as well go for a good race.

And what is better that a Gr 1 one turn mile. :headbanger:

[dilanesp]

That really was amazing. I mean, of all the places to eat in New York, Arby's? I had to read it three times. :lol::lol::lol:

When I am back there, usually it's for a legal proceeding. So I am alone in Midtown and on the run. Arby's is perfect.

[dilanesp]

So you ah NO science that says an inexperience 3yo off a layoff of several months can win at a 12 furlongs in Gr1 company at 12 furlongs.
None.

Forget science, you have not even an example.

Your comments about the triple crown races have zero to do with the conditions you claim to have science about.
We have had a LOT of horse with FOUNDATION win two of the three. The number of races once in form and with a foundation in NOTHING like no foundation and no recency.

You argument is like the guy who hangs garlic in his window to keep vampires away, and tells everyone it works GREAT! NO DRACULA!!!

Science, bay bay.

You are being completely disingenuous.

Horses have handled all sorts of schedules that included 12 furlong races. Rough ones and widely spaced ones.

The point about science is that there is literally nothing we know about horse physiology that supports what trainers tell us.

They wanted the Belmont at 9 furlongs to make it easier for Baffert to win with his speed horses.

[Tom]

Get some work in Rochester - you will LOVE Amiel's! :p

[dilanesp]

To be honest, I would like to see it go a flat mile.
There is not triple crown season this year, might as well go for a good race.

And what is better that a Gr 1 one turn mile. :headbanger:

Why not 5 furlongs on the Turf? It would be ultra-competitive.

[Tom]

Why not 5 furlongs on the Turf? It would be ultra-competitive.

I accept your surrender.

https://i.pinimg.com/236x/6f/3d/24/6f3d24f4ec0d6e2559d04e529ce41f99.jpg

[iamt]

You are being completely disingenuous.

Horses have handled all sorts of schedules that included 12 furlong races. Rough ones and widely spaced ones.

The point about science is that there is literally nothing we know about horse physiology that supports what trainers tell us.

They wanted the Belmont at 9 furlongs to make it easier for Baffert to win with his speed horses.


Can you present any science that shows horses don't produce their actual peak performance off these longer layoffs?


Just because a horse is eligible to run in a 12 f race doesn't mean doing it is beneficial to maximizing the horse's campaign. And unless you can prove that it is, banging on about how people can't prove the other side of the argument is completely pointless.

[Tom]

All race horses can get 12 furlongs - it's just a matter of how fast.

[classhandicapper]

What are the chances that so many horses want to run in the Belmont at 9F the race gets spit and Baffert can keep Charlatan and Nadal apart and win both divisions? :lol:

It's not going to happen, but that would make for some hysterical comments on Twitter.

[JustRalph]

Can you present any science that shows horses don't produce their actual peak performance off these longer layoffs?

Database guys, you're up!!

[Appy]

Database guys, you're up!!

I don't filter just for horses off long layoffs. I do filter for trainers with high rate of success running horses off long layoffs. Even so I typically toss a horse (for the W) first start off a long layoff. Yes, I lose that play on occasion, but it works more often than not.

[Secondbest]

I don't filter just for horses off long layoffs. I do filter for trainers with high rate of success running horses off long layoffs. Even so I typically toss a horse (for the W) first start off a long layoff. Yes, I lose that play on occasion, but it works more often than not.

What’s your definition of long?

[alhattab]

To be honest, I would like to see it go a flat mile.
There is not triple crown season this year, might as well go for a good race.

And what is better that a Gr 1 one turn mile. :headbanger:

I'm with you on this Tom- was hoping they'd go a mile. That would be a pretty cool TC- flat mile + 1 1/4 miles then the Preakness. Races at 1 1/8 for 3YO are a dime-a-dozen. Sure the 1 turn config makes this unique, but a flat mile would have been pretty cool.

As it relates to Arby's, I didn't read the whole thread but does Beef on Weck extend as far east as Rochester? That is pretty good stuff.

[Tom]

More towards the west and Buffalo, but a lot of beef on weck around here, too.
Finger Lakes used to have a BOW to die for....or even KILL for! :eek:

As Patricktruckdriver about the beef sandwich there.....

Hey, a least we are still getting the Met Mile and the Carter, and my favorite, the Westchester (used to be the first sign of spring at the old OTB parlors).

[Someday Silent]

What's so wrong with Arby's? They have the best curly fries.

Anyway, regarding 12 furlongs and layoffs, there are dozens of trainers all across Europe who are preparing their "Darby" horses to run 12 furlongs after one or no preps and having their races rescheduled too.