Consumer confidence

[ljb]

U.S. consumer confidence fell for a third straight month in October, a private survey showed, suggesting rising voter discontent with the economy a week before President George W. Bush seeks re-election.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 92.8 from a revised 96.7 in September, lower than previously estimated. Americans' assessment of the current economy and their outlook for the next six months fell.

The survey is the Conference Board's last before the U.S. presidential election. Since the index began in 1967, every incumbent president facing re-election with consumer confidence below 99 on Election Day has lost.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by ljb
The survey is the Conference Board's last before the U.S. presidential election. Since the index began in 1967, every incumbent president facing re-election with consumer confidence below 99 on Election Day has lost.

Man, it's really gonna suck for you if Kerry loses to Bush. Imagine what a terrible candidate he must be (which he is, by the way), if he can't beat an opponent with all these "negatives"

Why isn't Kerry ahead by 10+ points in the polls?? Why does Bush have greater support in the African American community this year, than he did in 2000, despite snubbing the NAACP?

http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/nation/ny-uskerr274020456oct27,0,4654349.story

Black voters also have been a worry, with a recent national poll suggesting Bush could as much as double his share of that vote over 2000.

"That's always been a concern of the Kerry campaign; you can't act like it doesn't matter," said Democratic strategist Steve Jarding of the black vote. "Anytime you see a poll where the numbers aren't where they traditionally are, where they need to be, where you want them to be - bluntly, there is some angst, some concern."

This is from a Newsday article (hardly a conservative rag....quite the opposite) dated October 27, 2004.

What the hell is Kerry's problem? Is he a worse candidate than Al Gore? Could that be even possible?

[Secretariat]

PA,

Interesting diversion from LJB's post about Consumer Confidence figures....

[PaceAdvantage]

And this is the second time I've brought up the fact that Bush enjoys more support today from black voters than he did 4 years ago without a response from Kerry supporters.

If all your accusations and finger pointing are true about President Bush, it is inconceivable to me that he would be gaining support amongst a segment of the population where you would traditionally expect to find the LEAST support!!!

How do you reconcile this? Or do you just discount the claim as false information?

As for Consumer Confidence, it tends to fluctuate dramatically at times from month to month....I wouldn't put too much stock in the stat that it's predicted the outcome elections in the past.

If this is the litmus test you use, then I point you to the Weekly Reader poll of children. Somebody's record is going to be tarnished come Tuesday.

[Secretariat]

I am amazed. I fail to see what Kerry's poll popularity with African Americans has to do with the Consumer Confidence figures going down. This has been a common statistic which has quoted here before as an improving economy. Now it's going down that's all.

But if Kerry only carries 80% plus of African Americans versus the 90% Gore did, I'll still be happy. I wouldn't say that bush enjoys widespread support in the African American community if that is your assertion.

[ljb]

From PA,
Why isn't Kerry ahead by 10+ points in the polls??
I ask myself the same question. Jon Stewart on the Daily show might have had somewhat of an answer the other day.
He said the undecided are saying "Well i want to wait and see if Bush screws up one more time"
Iwill also say the polls are meaningless at this time. I heard Zogby was on the Daily show and told him Kerry is the winner. Then I heard Novak got it from Zogby that Bush is the winner. You remember Novak he is the columinist that with help from the VP's office outed a CIA operative.
But I digress, Consumer confidence is down another sign of Bush's failed policys.

[Equineer]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
What the hell is Kerry's problem? Is he a worse candidate than Al Gore? Could that be even possible?There's not so much to recommend about Kerry as their is to condemn about Bush... who is locked into a denial posture that definitely does not bode well for the future.

If he follows form for denial syndromes, he will ignore advice from others until a decision based solely upon his personal beliefs casts a shadow over some of his failures. However, starting with Iraq, he has failed so consistently that he has become a risky proposition.

Do you think he ever had true executive qualities? He seems incapable of managing change, which is the hallmark of successful executives.

Reagan was a superb delegator who elicited his policy planning from subordinate resources, acted as the final referee, and then pitched his ultimate policy decisions to the public in their most digestible form.

Bush seems to rely entirely on his personal beliefs and jumps directly to pitching them to the public, using subordinates only as an afterthought to add positive spin to his convictions.

We rolled the dice with Bush and crapped out. That should be enough to dissuade votes for Bush.

[PaceAdvantage]

Ok vEtQuineer, I'll ask you then.

Why has John Kerry never enjoyed a clear lead in any pre-election poll (like the one Bush enjoyed after the Republican convention), when it is your belief that George Bush and his Admin has done such a terrible job.

You'd think the polls would be overly exaggerating Kerry's dominance, if anything, given all the negative stuff you believe about Bush. Are the American people not getting the whole Bush bashing story? Doubtful....people are criticizing Bush at every turn in all types of media....

So....what gives?

[Equineer]

Reason Bush has polled well: wartime Presidency.

After losing in 1992 to Clinton, who also trailed in the polls for most of the campaign, Republican diehards were furious at the elder Bush for pulling out of Iraq instead of taking Baghdad and occupying Iraq through the 1992 election. This let Clinton make "it's the economy, stupid," a winning sound bite.

[PaceAdvantage]

Ahhh, but the elder Bush was in no way shape or form criticized and downright hated as much as GWB is today (at least that's the way it is portrayed in the mass media). Your analogy doesn't jibe with reality.

Again, what gives in the polls? Could it be that John Kerry is that weak a candidate, and perhaps completely unsuitable for the job, despite all of George W. Bush's many faults (your words, not mine)

[boxcar]

PaceAdvantage asks: [/i]

Again, what gives in the polls? Could it be that John Kerry is that weak a candidate, and perhaps completely unsuitable for the job, despite all of George W. Bush's many faults (your words, not mine)

Have you forgotten already, PA, that Kerry is Flip Flopper Extraordinaire? A Master without equal at talking out of both sides of his mouth? (Even the mainstream liberal media recongizes these character flaws in their man.) In short, Lurch is suffering from the Jekyl and Hyde Syndrome. One moment, depending on the salient factors at the time, which could be which way the political wind is blowing, the makeup of his audience, political expedience, etc. Doc Jekyl will say something that will appeal to the more or less moderates in the Democratic Party, while in the next breath Mr. Hyde will spout off something that will enamor him with the Deanaic Lunatic Fringe. Since Kerry has no core set of principles (or scruples for that matter) to which he wholeheartedly subscribes (save for his love for and dedication to the U.N. and his pursuit of the Ideal of Globalism, whcih he hopes will be realized through a global goverment, which without doubt would be seated at the U.N.), Kerry has failed to really shore up a firm base. You just can't do this when you try to be all things to all people. When people are confused as to exactly where you stand -- when you stand on both sides of the issues!

If Kerry could have projected, over all these months, a more positive image of himself, he would be leading Bush right now by a comfortable margin. But I don't think too many people are able to see something that just isn't there.

Boxcar

[PaceAdvantage]

I know the answer is obvious to you as well as myself...I want to hear how THEY answer the question.... ;)

[Equineer]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
Ahhh, but the elder Bush was in no way shape or form criticized and downright hated as much as GWB is today (at least that's the way it is portrayed in the mass media). Your analogy doesn't jibe with reality.

Again, what gives in the polls? Could it be that John Kerry is that weak a candidate, and perhaps completely unsuitable for the job, despite all of George W. Bush's many faults (your words, not mine) I'm not sure what you mean by hatred.

I must be out of the hate e-mail loop that others complain about.

I haven't noticed extraordinary hatred unless you mean BS from perennial extremists in the tabloid media and in the banal campaign ads... this time around, both parties have sunk to polluting cable channels that used to be safe havens.

I don't sense much hate among ordinary people... at least among people you wouldn't avoid no matter which candidate they preferred.

A few hate mongers should be expected here because they flock to Internet boards.

As for criticism, the elder Bush's administration hardly earned as much criticism as his son's administration.

This year should have been a no-contest win for a wartime President. In retrospect, I'm sure Hillary regrets passing on it.

Kerry interests me only by virtue of his experience in the Senate where you grow accustomed to a mix of successes, setbacks, and compromises as circumstances change. Bush is totally absorbed by his own personal beliefs... a very dangerous situation.

[PaceAdvantage]

A sudden sense of complete exasperation has come over me reading your last response vEtQuineer. It's impossible to get a straight answer to a straight question without a lot of mumbo-jumbo spin, weave, and dodge thrown into the mix.

You guys are pros, correct?

[Tom]

Pros 'n Hos.