Monomoy Girl Back at CD

[classhandicapper]

She's entered in the 4th at CD in an ALW race on opening day.

[ldiatone]

have read the weather will not b good for opening of CD sat and sun.

[PhantomOnTour]

She's entered in the 4th at CD in an ALW race on opening day.

If she's facing any filly or mare with a good degree of quality I will be betting two fisted against her at minuscule odds

[Cholly]

162 horses entered for 11 races

[Redboard]

Funny how they found a spot for her in a N3X — has 10 lifetime wins. No extra weight either.

[Tom]

Why was she off so long?
I assume she retired, but was there an injury, of just coming back out of retirement.

Workout line looks decent - what do you do with this race?
Single her, pass it, look for a bomber for an exotic?

[Redboard]

Had colic then pulled a glute muscle. Would be pretty dumb to risk her when she's worth money as a broodmare. The connections must believe she's healthy and ready to fire.

I'm going to single her in the pick 5 and the early pick 4.

[classhandicapper]

If she's facing any filly or mare with a good degree of quality I will be betting two fisted against her at minuscule odds

It doesn't look like too much of a field.

I have mixed feelings about Monomoy Girl. On the one hand she's very game and really only lost once while running in the very best races available, but she wasn't the fastest 3yo filly we've seen (at least on Beyer figures).

That's very long layoff. Is Cox going to even have her wound up for this?

Talk Veuve To Me used to be pretty good, but she wasn't the same horse last year. Maybe Asmussen can turn her back around, but usually when these fillies go bad you can't turn them back around.

Fashion Faux Pas has one fast race, but not much lately.

Unless you are more creative than me I'm going to watch that one as a fan.

[PressThePace]

Easy winner...

[v j stauffer]

Easy winner...

Even more impressive as might seem. She resented being sent early. Wasn't real comfortable between horses into the far turn. CLEARLY, at least to me, did not like the footing. Looked like a lady walking across a skating rink with spike heels on.

Put it all together. MASSIVE effort by a superstar mare.

With Midnight Bisou, Ce Ce and Ollie's Candy all out there.

Plus the three year old fillies.

Distaff division my be strongest in a very long time.

[CheckMark]

monomoy girl was a very good horse today but suspicious drop surprised me when dropping from a Grade 1 race to a AOC $80k

[classhandicapper]

I didn't like the trip she got either. When she finally got loose to the outside she ran well, but the race sort of fell apart. The horses up front that I thought were the most talented but somewhat "suspect" going in gave way badly and there wasn't much behind the winner coming at the end. She'll probably move forward off this, but I'd take Midnight Bisou if they faced each other right now.

[v j stauffer]

monomoy girl was a very good horse today but suspicious drop surprised me when dropping from a Grade 1 race to a AOC $80k

It wasn't a drop. Nothing suspicious about it at all. She was away 18 months. They got very lucky a race she was eligible for filled. NW in 2019-20. I expect a few horsemen did the office a favor to make it go. She'll be back in Graded company soon. I would expect the Fluer De Lis $200,000 Grade 2 on June 27 at CD.

Nice when a plan comes together.

[classhandicapper]

Her race came back very slow on Beyer. He gave her an 85. I think you can argue that figure looks a little light based on the horses, but even if you bumped it up a little it would still be too slow to contend against the best mares. She didn't have an ideal trip and maybe she wasn't all out late, but imo she's going to have to improve to contend against the best mares.

[Spalding No!]

With Midnight Bisou, Ce Ce and Ollie's Candy all out there.
Those 3 horses are collectively just 2 for 10 races in races at 9 furlongs or more. They have finished first in only 6 of 19 Grade 1 races. In fields of 10 or more horses, they have won just 2 of 12 starts.

Plus the three year old fillies.
This division has been decimated. Arguably the most talented member (Taraz) passed away. The most accomplished member (Bast) retired with an injury. The juvenile champion of the crop (British Idiom) just had surgery. The member in the best current form (Swiss Skydiver) is planning on running overseas. The most brilliant member of the division (Donna Veloce) just got turned out for a "minor setback".

Distaff division my be strongest in a very long time.
It is basically the same bunch as the past 2 seasons minus multiple Grade 1 winners (and the 2 mares with the most stamina) Blue Prize and Elate. Their absence couldn't possibly make the division stronger.

Not too long ago, In 2016, Beholder, Songbird, Forever Unbridled, Stellar Wind, I'm A Chatterbox, and Curalina were all part of the filly and mare divisions.

[cj]

Her race came back very slow on Beyer. He gave her an 85. I think you can argue that figure looks a little light based on the horses, but even if you bumped it up a little it would still be too slow to contend against the best mares. She didn't have an ideal trip and maybe she wasn't all out late, but imo she's going to have to improve to contend against the best mares.

I'm not going to knock her performance even though the fig is weak. I gave it a 106, very similar to Beyer. But no way she was 100% for that allowance race. She was bottled up and ran well.

She is never going to offer value in the future. The question is will be is she one to bet against? No way I was betting against her in that field Saturday. They were listed stakes horses at best and I figured if Monomoy Girl wasn't at least over her issues there was NO CHANCE they would bring her back to the races. Against maybe better horses next time, I might give it a shot.

[cj]

Those 3 horses are collectively just 2 for 10 races in races at 9 furlongs or more. They have finished first in only 6 of 19 Grade 1 races. In fields of 10 or more horses, they have won just 2 of 12 starts.


This division has been decimated. Arguably the most talented member (Taraz) passed away. The most accomplished member (Bast) retired with an injury. The juvenile champion of the crop (British Idiom) just had surgery. The member in the best current form (Swiss Skydiver) is planning on running overseas. The most brilliant member of the division (Donna Veloce) just got turned out for a "minor setback".


It is basically the same bunch as the past 2 seasons minus multiple Grade 1 winners (and the 2 mares with the most stamina) Blue Prize and Elate. Their absence couldn't possibly make the division stronger.

Not too long ago, In 2016, Beholder, Songbird, Forever Unbridled, Stellar Wind, I'm A Chatterbox, and Curalina were all part of the filly and mare divisions.

Midnight Bisou will probably get credit for winning the Saudi Cup at some point in the future and she beat some decent horses to run second. I've never believed she had the 1 1/16 mile limit many imposed on her last year. I also think Mike Smith beat her in the Distaff more than any real distance issue.

[Redboard]

She hasn’t put up any big speed figure yet, but she’s won 11 out of 12 lifetime starts. Her one loss was by a neck. She didn’t look real sure of herself on Saturday, as if she didn’t know what to do, which isn’t surprising since she hadn’t ran in 17 months. If you want to toss her in her next race, be my guest.

[Spalding No!]

Midnight Bisou will probably get credit for winning the Saudi Cup at some point in the future and she beat some decent horses to run second. I've never believed she had the 1 1/16 mile limit many imposed on her last year. I also think Mike Smith beat her in the Distaff more than any real distance issue.
I thought the Saudi Cup field was pretty light in terms of dedicated dirt horses. She beat Tacitus and Mucho Gusto who appear second-tier at this point regardless of some high profile wins. I'm presuming McKinzie didn't fire for whatever reason and consider his race is a toss. I actually thought he retired after that debacle, but I guess he has returned with some recent workouts.

I'm no fan of Mike Smith's rides, but Midnight Bisou doesn't appear to have enough early foot to ever be effective at 9f. She always is left with too much to do. Aside from 2 races at Belmont (2018 Mother Goose, 2019 Ogden Phipps) on perhaps odd tracks (you'd know better than me) she is never close when the 1/2 mile fraction is quicker than :48.

Probably would be even more formidable as a late-running sprinter. I wonder if the Met Mile was/is on the radar.

[Suff]

IShe was bottled up and ran well.




More like a beat up. She took it from a couple of horses and didn’t appear to respond to it or enjoy it. When she kicked, it appeared more from habit than heart.

Cj, indawin, the 4th at CD. #6. Raced in duopoly race, I’m sure you saw it.

Indawin, speed-then 2 different trips in 1. Her stretch run was epic.

[Redboard]

Next race, either the Ogden Phipps Stakes at Belmont on TBD or the Fleur de Lis at Churchill on June 27th.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/241249/monomoy-girl-returns-with-easy-allowance-victory

[classhandicapper]

I'm not going to knock her performance even though the fig is weak. I gave it a 106, very similar to Beyer. But no way she was 100% for that allowance race. She was bottled up and ran well.

She is never going to offer value in the future. The question is will be is she one to bet against? No way I was betting against her in that field Saturday. They were listed stakes horses at best and I figured if Monomoy Girl wasn't at least over her issues there was NO CHANCE they would bring her back to the races. Against maybe better horses next time, I might give it a shot.

I agree with everything you are saying, but in this case I'm not so sure there was a lot more in the tank than we saw. She opened up nicely when free and asked, but she was not really geared down that much late and some pretty weak horses were closing the gap a little.

She was almost certainly not 100%, but I think there's a pretty big gap between where she was the other day and Midnight Bisou.

She's been one of my favorites. I love those horses that keep piling up wins because they are usually a notch better than they look on figures, but I'd like to bet against her if the right mare shows up.

[v j stauffer]

Those 3 horses are collectively just 2 for 10 races in races at 9 furlongs or more. They have finished first in only 6 of 19 Grade 1 races. In fields of 10 or more horses, they have won just 2 of 12 starts.


This division has been decimated. Arguably the most talented member (Taraz) passed away. The most accomplished member (Bast) retired with an injury. The juvenile champion of the crop (British Idiom) just had surgery. The member in the best current form (Swiss Skydiver) is planning on running overseas. The most brilliant member of the division (Donna Veloce) just got turned out for a "minor setback".


It is basically the same bunch as the past 2 seasons minus multiple Grade 1 winners (and the 2 mares with the most stamina) Blue Prize and Elate. Their absence couldn't possibly make the division stronger.

Not too long ago, In 2016, Beholder, Songbird, Forever Unbridled, Stellar Wind, I'm A Chatterbox, and Curalina were all part of the filly and mare divisions.

Sounds good. Guess you're right.

[classhandicapper]

Here's why I whine so much about speed figures.

Timeform and Beyer have Monomoy Girl's race as very slow.

I also think it was slow, but I think a case can be made for subjectively adding a few points to it because it looks slower than you'd expect based on the horses in the race. So maybe the track changed speeds a little???

Thorograph has her running the 2nd fastest figure of her career.

https://twitter.com/EliteRaceSales/status/1263153422661849088

[cj]

Here's why I whine so much about speed figures.

Timeform and Beyer have Monomoy Girl's race as very slow.

I think it was slow, but a case can be made for subjectively adding a few points to it because it looks even slower than you'd expect based on the horses in the race. So maybe the track changed speeds a little???

Thorograph has her running the 2nd fastest figure of her career.


I respect Jerry Brown, but that figure is ridiculous.

[classhandicapper]

I respect Jerry Brown, but that figure is ridiculous.

He had to have broken it out and maybe he has a lot of those horses faster going in. I'm not buying that she ran that fast. That race was not very high quality.

[Suff]

Is this true:
Occasionally Horses naturally don't want to be race horse's anymore?

I saw a hint of that.

[woodbinepmi]

Is this true:
Occasionally Horses naturally don't want to be race horse's anymore?

I saw a hint of that.

Especially with mares when they get to breeding age.

[Tom]

I know he figures in ground loss, but how wide was she - she come home through New Orleans? :rolleyes::lol:

Class, you have to LOVE when a big time outfit gets it that wrong.....I love the situation where Beyer gives a high number and CJ gives a low one. Or vice versa.

[jay68802]

My guess on a Briss figure was 92 - 94. And a win to get things started. Solid start.

[classhandicapper]

Class, you have to LOVE when a big time outfit gets it that wrong.....I love the situation where Beyer gives a high number and CJ gives a low one. Or vice versa.

I love it when I think I know who is right, but a lot of the time I look like this :bang:

[jay68802]

I love it when I think I know who is right, but a lot of the time I look like this :bang:

Yes, Sir.:D

[cj]

Is this true:
Occasionally Horses naturally don't want to be race horse's anymore?

I saw a hint of that.

A couple like this (in my opinion) ran in the same race last week at Gulfstream, Bronx Beauty and Pacific Gale.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/GP051420USA9.pdf

[Tom]

I love it when I think I know who is right, but a lot of the time I look like this :bang:

The longer priced horse is always the right one. ;)

[taxicab]

I thought the Saudi Cup field was pretty light in terms of dedicated dirt horses. She beat Tacitus and Mucho Gusto who appear second-tier at this point regardless of some high profile wins. I'm presuming McKinzie didn't fire for whatever reason and consider his race is a toss. I actually thought he retired after that debacle, but I guess he has returned with some recent workouts.

I'm no fan of Mike Smith's rides, but Midnight Bisou doesn't appear to have enough early foot to ever be effective at 9f. She always is left with too much to do. Aside from 2 races at Belmont (2018 Mother Goose, 2019 Ogden Phipps) on perhaps odd tracks (you'd know better than me) she is never close when the 1/2 mile fraction is quicker than :48.

Probably would be even more formidable as a late-running sprinter. I wonder if the Met Mile was/is on the radar.

Midnight Bisou is 8 for her last 11, with four Gr. 1's & two Gr. 2's in the sample.
Two of her losses were in the BC Distaff {2nd/3rd}........her other loss was in the Saudi Cup against the boys,and she'll be put up to first soon enough.
That will make her 9 for her last 11......winning over seven different tracks.
Her four Gr. 1's will of come over four different tracks.........and when she gets put up in the SC,she'll be three for her last four @ 9 furlongs........she gets the ninth furlong just fine.
She's not more formidable as a late running sprinter.
I noticed you fired one off at Ce Ce also.
She's 4 for 6 lifetime,has gone two turns twice.........both times she's taken down a Gr.1.
Her most recent Gr. 1 was from the impossible 14 hole @ Oaklawn......that was a giant race.

[Spalding No!]

Midnight Bisou is 8 for her last 11, with four Gr. 1's & two Gr. 2's in the sample.
Two of her losses were in the BC Distaff {2nd/3rd}........her other loss was in the Saudi Cup against the boys,and she'll be put up to first soon enough.
That will make her 9 for her last 11......winning over seven different tracks.
Her four Gr. 1's will of come over four different tracks.........and when she gets put up in the SC,she'll be three for her last four @ 9 furlongs........she gets the ninth furlong just fine.
In other words, she's 0 for 5 in her most important starts (Kentucky Oaks, Alabama, 2 BC Distaffs, and the Saudi Cup). All 9 furlongs or more.

She's not more formidable as a late running sprinter.
We won't really know unless she gets a shot in those types of races. Out of necessity (due to wind issues), her sire was forced into sprints and he was a monster at it.

I noticed you fired one off at Ce Ce also.
She's 4 for 6 lifetime,has gone two turns twice.........both times she's taken down a Gr.1.
Her most recent Gr. 1 was from the impossible 14 hole @ Oaklawn......that was a giant race.
Now that would be a race; the Ballerina at Saratoga with Midnight Bisou versus Ce Ce.

[taxicab]

In other words, she's 0 for 5 in her most important starts (Kentucky Oaks, Alabama, 2 BC Distaffs, and the Saudi Cup). All 9 furlongs or more.


We won't really know unless she gets a shot in those types of races. Out of necessity (due to wind issues), her sire was forced into sprints and he was a monster at it.


Now that would be a race; the Ballerina at Saratoga with Midnight Bisou versus Ce Ce.

Yeah....... she's a real slug:
Never been worse then 3rd in 20 career races.
She broker her maiden in a Gr. 2.
She's 5 for 10 in Gr. 1's.
She's 4 for 4 in Gr. 2's.
She's 3 for 3 in Gr. 3's.
That makes her 12 for 17 in Graded Stakes.
In the Saudi Cup she's about to be placed first in.......she beat 10 Group/Grade 1 winning Male rivals.
Like I said......Soon to be 3 for her last 4 @ 9 furlongs.
In sprints she's 1 for 3.
And......Ce Ce will never see a Sprint again.

[taxicab]

Looks like she caught the 9th furlong without a problem in her most recent:


https://youtu.be/j-5yY1plS64

[Spalding No!]

Yeah....... she's a real slug:
I didn't say that. I said she was not particularly effective at 9f.

She broker her maiden in a Gr. 2.
...in a sprint no less

In the Saudi Cup she's about to be placed first in.......she beat 10 Group/Grade 1 winning Male rivals.
If that happens it will mean her 2 biggest victories will have been achieved with the help of the stewards. I wonder what Mike Smith's new whipping fine will amount to as a result...
In sprints she's 1 for 3.
2 nose defeats to Grade 1 winner Dream Tree who earned a triple digit Beyer sprinting the following year.

And......Ce Ce will never see a Sprint again.
A daughter of Elusive Quality? I wouldn't count on that.

[classhandicapper]

In other words, she's 0 for 5 in her most important starts (Kentucky Oaks, Alabama, 2 BC Distaffs, and the Saudi Cup). All 9 furlongs or more.

I don't have a strong view on her distance preference, but imo if she's better going shorter than 9F it's not by a lot. There's nothing in her Beyer figures that suggests she's better going shorter. If we had a Beyer figure for the Saudi Cup it was probably her lifetime top (albeit with a rail trip) and her previous top I think was also at 9F.

Alabama excepted at 10F, you could just as easily argue that she lost those other races because they were the deepest highest quality races she's been in. That makes them harder to win.

If you put a gun to my head maybe I'd choose 8.5F, but I sure wouldn't let 9F scare me away or shorten her up.