i am sick of Tacitus

[dilanesp]

How much money has that horse burned?

[cj]

Luckily, we have this thing called betting where you can cash in against him. :)

[RunForTheRoses]

There was no way I'd play so soon after the ship to the Mideast.

[burnsy]

Luckily, we have this thing called betting where you can cash in against him. :)

Yup, I said in the other thread. Don’t bet him til he wins one. Then he’s the chalk vs a horse that rarely loses . Go figure :lol:.
Yay Tacitus..... I’m not sick of you. Just what I thought .

[clicknow]

I've never wagered Tacitus to win anything. But he shows up, he races, he runs. That's a lot more than you can say about so many other horses, who are whisked away to the breeding shed before they've run 6 career races. He's often good for ITM on an exotics ticket but not today.
So, you're sick of him entering races and running for our entertainment, I guess I don't get it.

[burnsy]

I agree Clicknow but betting him is a whole different matter. I’m 2 Mint Julep in now and well whatever. Tacitus seems like I’ve been making money off of him since Dust Commander was a yearling

[NTamm1215]

Objective race analysis is seemingly gone nowadays. If it wasn’t, it would be clear Tacitus actually ran relatively well today. The pace was exceptionally soft in the OP Handicap. It was over a half second slower to the half than the 2nd div of the Ark Derby and nearly a second slower to the half than the 1st division. The 1-2 finishers largely dominated the race on the front end.

Tacitus made, albeit an unthreatening one, the only real off the pace move in the race. He also did this off a 90+ day layoff which included a pit stop in Dubai after racing in Saudi.

Tacitus is a good, but unlucky horse. He also finds himself at the mercy of the race flow too frequently. There’s a major race out there with his name on it in my opinion.

[GMB@BP]

Luckily, we have this thing called betting where you can cash in against him. :)

I know, dont get it, love horses who take a ton of money and never win. Isnt that the ideal for a bettor?

[GMB@BP]

Tacitus is a good, but unlucky horse. He also finds himself at the mercy of the race flow too frequently. There’s a major race out there with his name on it in my opinion.

I am sure there is, his style is exactly what you want though in terms of horses that are a complete tease.

I would argue he is kind of run of the mill for a grade 1 horse, as you said there is a race that he will probably win with the right trip and setup, but I would argue it wont validate him much more than just the average good horse.

[classhandicapper]

He's had a few races that were better than they looked, but as a result he also developed a reputation that exceeds his actual ability at this stage.

When he's off the pace he has an excuse.

When he's on the pace he has an excuse.

When he's inside he has an excuse.

When he's outside he has an excuse.

When he has no excuse somehow he still has an excuse (and there were a couple of those too).

I didn't cash on the race, but a chance to bet against him was the reason I was in the race. I primarily used Mr Freeze and saved a little with Tax, but imo both the winner and 2nd horse were also both usable.

He'll probably eventually get a perfect trip against a weak group, but he's not going to beat legitimate Grade 1 older horses without getting quite a bit better. He's simply not that good right now despite the rep.

[dilanesp]

Objective race analysis is seemingly gone nowadays. If it wasn’t, it would be clear Tacitus actually ran relatively well today. The pace was exceptionally soft in the OP Handicap. It was over a half second slower to the half than the 2nd div of the Ark Derby and nearly a second slower to the half than the 1st division. The 1-2 finishers largely dominated the race on the front end.

Tacitus made, albeit an unthreatening one, the only real off the pace move in the race. He also did this off a 90+ day layoff which included a pit stop in Dubai after racing in Saudi.

Tacitus is a good, but unlucky horse. He also finds himself at the mercy of the race flow too frequently. There’s a major race out there with his name on it in my opinion.

Tacitus always has an excuse.

And at some point, horses that always have an excuse need to be treated as chronic losers and dropped in class.

[Spalding No!]

VIRTUAL SUCKER BET STAKES – 9 FURLONGS DIRT

1) BROTHER DEREK
2) CHAMPS ELYSEES (GB)
3) CHESTER HOUSE
4) DOLLAR BILL
5) GIACOMO
6) GOLDEN MISSILE
7) IRISH WAR CRY
8) KEEN ICE
9) KISSIN KRIS
10) MR. COMMONS
11) PAVEL
12) PUERTO MADERO (CHI)
13) SETSUKO
14) TACITUS
AE
15) POLITICAL FORCE
16) MUBTAAHIJ (IRE)

[classhandicapper]

VIRTUAL SUCKER BET STAKES – 9 FURLONGS DIRT


I often think about the qualities that make certain horses "sucker bets".

Thy are typically horses that got over hyped in the media, overhyped by big name handicappers, or that won a prestigious race that happened to be very weak, but they also seem to lack something as racehorses.

To me it seems like an inability to overcome any real pressure or adversity and still finish well enough at the end to win at their current class level.

To win, you usually have to make a serious move into contention and sustain the run or engage and battle early. If you repeatedly come up empty late when you do that, it usually means you need a drop in class where the demands to get into contention are likely to be lower and you'll have a little more in the tank for the last 1/16th or 1/8th. Most of these horses run a lot of good races. They just can't get the job done without a drop because they lack the reserve racing energy do what it takes to win.

[rastajenk]

VIRTUAL SUCKER BET STAKES – 9 FURLONGS DIRT

1) BROTHER DEREK
2) CHAMPS ELYSEES (GB)
3) CHESTER HOUSE
4) DOLLAR BILL
5) GIACOMO
6) GOLDEN MISSILE
7) IRISH WAR CRY
8) KEEN ICE
9) KISSIN KRIS
10) MR. COMMONS
11) PAVEL
12) PUERTO MADERO (CHI)
13) SETSUKO
14) TACITUS
AE
15) POLITICAL FORCE
16) MUBTAAHIJ (IRE)That's a pretty good field full of burnt cash. I'm glad you got Dollar Bill in there. It was in his era that I joined the internet community and could follow racing more closely than in the prior few years, and was immediately stunned at the level of fandom bestowed upon him. Hence, he has been my benchmark for this kind of "honor" ever since.

[HHE10]

The only time I ever actually bet Tacitus was the derby. Was only a win bet but knew he wouldn't win the race because either Improbable or Maximum Security was going to win.

I should have done a tri since I had Tacitus and my mom had Code of Honour. Would have been a nice $11,475.30 for a $1 ($5,737.65 for 0.50 cents)

[1GCFAN]

Nice list. On the outside looking in may up and comer Farmington Road! He has got me three times in a row!

[dilanesp]

VIRTUAL SUCKER BET STAKES – 9 FURLONGS DIRT

1) BROTHER DEREK
2) CHAMPS ELYSEES (GB)
3) CHESTER HOUSE
4) DOLLAR BILL
5) GIACOMO
6) GOLDEN MISSILE
7) IRISH WAR CRY
8) KEEN ICE
9) KISSIN KRIS
10) MR. COMMONS
11) PAVEL
12) PUERTO MADERO (CHI)
13) SETSUKO
14) TACITUS
AE
15) POLITICAL FORCE
16) MUBTAAHIJ (IRE)

This is pretty good.

[GMB@BP]

VIRTUAL SUCKER BET STAKES – 9 FURLONGS DIRT

1) BROTHER DEREK
2) CHAMPS ELYSEES (GB)
3) CHESTER HOUSE
4) DOLLAR BILL
5) GIACOMO
6) GOLDEN MISSILE
7) IRISH WAR CRY
8) KEEN ICE
9) KISSIN KRIS
10) MR. COMMONS
11) PAVEL
12) PUERTO MADERO (CHI)
13) SETSUKO
14) TACITUS
AE
15) POLITICAL FORCE
16) MUBTAAHIJ (IRE)

Some of these horses though never burned that much money as they were hardly favored.

Giacomo was only favored in 2 lifetime races, and after the Derby win he was never favored in the next 8 races. most the time going of >4/1. Pavel while garnering favoritism a few times has hardly been the folly of punters. Chester House is another that I dont recall taking to much money in his events.

Compare that to Tacitus who has been favored 6 times with 2 wins. I would say even that is not too bad.

I think McKinzie has burned a lot more money that many of these, despite a few strong performances.

[burnsy]

Improbable is getting close too. He’s a Money burner specialist. Wish he would of ran yesterday too. By My Standards might of been 6-1. For me, it’s not just the record , it’s the “ tout” factor and excuses after the fact

[GMB@BP]

Improbable is getting close too. He’s a Money burner specialist. Wish he would of ran yesterday too. By My Standards might of been 6-1. For me, it’s not just the record , it’s the “ tout” factor and excuses after the fact

yup, big time. Gate trouble, erratic mentally.

[dilanesp]

Some of these horses though never burned that much money as they were hardly favored.

Giacomo was only favored in 2 lifetime races, and after the Derby win he was never favored in the next 8 races. most the time going of >4/1. Pavel while garnering favoritism a few times has hardly been the folly of punters. Chester House is another that I dont recall taking to much money in his events.

Compare that to Tacitus who has been favored 6 times with 2 wins. I would say even that is not too bad.

I think McKinzie has burned a lot more money that many of these, despite a few strong performances.

Tacitus has burned a whole bunch of money even in races where he wasn't favored. He almost always seems to take a lot of action.

[GMB@BP]

Tacitus has burned a whole bunch of money even in races where he wasn't favored. He almost always seems to take a lot of action.

I think rather than be critical of the horse its a better point that horses with his style are almost always bad bets and backing them require the odds to justify the chance the backer is taking.

[Spalding No!]

Some of these horses though never burned that much money as they were hardly favored.
I didn't use favoritism as the only criteria. Odds around 5-1 and/or inflated reputation was what I used.

Giacomo was only favored in 2 lifetime races, and after the Derby win he was never favored in the next 8 races. most the time going of >4/1.
2 wins in 9 starts at 5-1 or less.

Pavel while garnering favoritism a few times has hardly been the folly of punters.
1 win in 5 starts at 5-1or less. People were predicting ridiculous things when he ran 4th in the Jim Dandy (5-horse field) in his 2nd career start. Connections did him in as they have countless other horses.

Chester House is another that I dont recall taking to much money in his events.
4 wins in 14 starts at 5-1 or less. Favored in 9 of 21 career starts (3 wins).

Compare that to Tacitus who has been favored 6 times with 2 wins. I would say even that is not too bad.
2 wins in 7 races at 5-1 or less.

I think McKinzie has burned a lot more money that many of these, despite a few strong performances.
6 wins in 12 starts as favorite. One of those he was DQ'd, another he was put up on a DQ. One of those he received one of the worst rides of the decade in the Met Mile.

7 wins in 14 starts at 5-1 or less.

[castaway01]

Tacitus has burned a whole bunch of money even in races where he wasn't favored. He almost always seems to take a lot of action.

When tracks reopen, I have a vision of you jumping the rail, kicking poor Tacitus in one of his four shins, then sprinting away, figuring he'll hang in the stretch while trying to catch you...

[GMB@BP]

I didn't use favoritism as the only criteria. Odds around 5-1 and/or inflated reputation was what I used.


2 wins in 9 starts at 5-1 or less.


1 win in 5 starts at 5-1or less. People were predicting ridiculous things when he ran 4th in the Jim Dandy (5-horse field) in his 2nd career start. Connections did him in as they have countless other horses.


4 wins in 14 starts at 5-1 or less. Favored in 9 of 21 career starts (3 wins).


2 wins in 7 races at 5-1 or less.


6 wins in 12 starts as favorite. One of those he was DQ'd, another he was put up on a DQ. One of those he received one of the worst rides of the decade in the Met Mile.

7 wins in 14 starts at 5-1 or less.

whats this 5/1 criteria, thats a horse with an average chance of winning. How do you burn money with an average chance of winning?

I think of money burners at no worse than 5/2 ish.

[GMB@BP]

I didn't use favoritism as the only criteria. Odds around 5-1 and/or inflated reputation was what I used.


2 wins in 9 starts at 5-1 or less.


1 win in 5 starts at 5-1or less. People were predicting ridiculous things when he ran 4th in the Jim Dandy (5-horse field) in his 2nd career start. Connections did him in as they have countless other horses.


4 wins in 14 starts at 5-1 or less. Favored in 9 of 21 career starts (3 wins).


2 wins in 7 races at 5-1 or less.


6 wins in 12 starts as favorite. One of those he was DQ'd, another he was put up on a DQ. One of those he received one of the worst rides of the decade in the Met Mile.

7 wins in 14 starts at 5-1 or less.

several of those horses no one thought was any good, giacomo, pavel, setsuko?? those horses were often double digit favorites in many grade 1's, though you are probably right there is inflated opinions of horses who never did all that much.

[Spalding No!]

whats this 5/1 criteria, thats a horse with an average chance of winning. How do you burn money with an average chance of winning?

I think of money burners at no worse than 5/2 ish.
Let's call them chronic underlays then...

[Spalding No!]

several of those horses no one thought was any good, giacomo, pavel, setsuko?? those horses were often double digit favorites in many grade 1's, though you are probably right there is inflated opinions of horses who never did all that much.
Pavel had talent, no doubt about it. People with good opinions were touting him after his maiden win. His connections ruined him.

Setsuko, with 3 grade 1 placings, was often bet despite being eligible for allowance conditions. People were hoping he'd draw into the 2010 Kentucky Derby off his suck-up 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby. People thought he was robbed in the 2011 Big Cap won by Game On Dude. Classic sucker horse.

Ken Rudolph ranted and raved about Giacomo on TVG every chance he got. The horse was bet in several starts post-Derby despite never getting closer than 5-lengths to the winner in any of those races save the San Diego against some Grade 3-types.

[classhandicapper]

It's almost always what I said.

If some horse wins a very fast maiden race the articles and Twitter hype will begin almost immediately even if it was an abbreviated sprint, the horse was loose in a moderate pace in a weak field, the track was sloppy, there was a bias (that they may not have noticed) etc..

If some horse wins a very weak edition of a major stake (especially with a bit of a tough trip) the articles and Twitter hype will begin immediately.

It seems like once the hype starts, new evidence doesn't sway the public as quickly as it should. Sometimes the new evidence suggests the horse is not as good as it appeared, but people don't let go easily.

For me, betting against those horses is one of the best chances I'm going to get to find a legitimate overlay. I know once all the wise guys or general public starts falling in love with some horse, it's going to be hard for them to let go. They'll spin more excuses rather than admit to themselves that maybe they were initially wrong. It happens to me too. I was originally on the Tacitus train, but when the facts started changing I eventually got off.

It's not that I think Tacitus is bad. I think he's pretty good and has time to get better. He just eventually got overrated because he had a few less than ideal trips. People started assuming he would have won all those races with a fair trip and was actually very very good but unlucky. But they were disregarding the fact that very very good horses tend to be able to overcome biases, mildly bad trips, a bad pace setup etc... a lot of the time. That's what makes them very very good. They have the reserve energy to get the job done anyway. They also rarely throw in a clunker with a decent trip like he has.

[GMB@BP]

Let's call them chronic underlays then...

I am good with that!

[GMB@BP]

Pavel had talent, no doubt about it. People with good opinions were touting him after his maiden win. His connections ruined him.

Setsuko, with 3 grade 1 placings, was often bet despite being eligible for allowance conditions. People were hoping he'd draw into the 2010 Kentucky Derby off his suck-up 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby. People thought he was robbed in the 2011 Big Cap won by Game On Dude. Classic sucker horse.

Ken Rudolph ranted and raved about Giacomo on TVG every chance he got. The horse was bet in several starts post-Derby despite never getting closer than 5-lengths to the winner in any of those races save the San Diego against some Grade 3-types.

Giacomo was a grade 3 type, grade 3 types can win grade 1's in the right scenarios. Giacomo would have been a nice horse to own, beyond the Ky Derby and all, he collected paychecks at a pretty good clip in big races.

Looking back on it you wonder how good that third place effort of Pavel really was in his second start, the horses in that race were ok. I think that race is what really elevated the opinion of him.

I do remember Setsucko a little, mostly with it being that he was not very good. I think I bet against him many times.

[Someday Silent]

Hofburg, anyone?

[Spalding No!]

Hofburg, anyone?
Juddmonte already had 3 other entrants in the Virtual Sucker Bet race.

Kidding aside, Hofburg has been favored 3 times and won 2 of those. He's only been shorter than 5-1 in two other races. He is closing in on Setsuko status, though...especially if they end up gelding him.

[GMB@BP]

Juddmonte already had 3 other entrants in the Virtual Sucker Bet race.

Kidding aside, Hofburg has been favored 3 times and won 2 of those. He's only been shorter than 5-1 in two other races. He is closing in on Setsuko status, though...especially if they end up gelding him.

I feel like Hofburg was flavor of the week for a very brief spell but never had the support that many on this list did.

And to be fair to this list, this is nitpicking very good horses. I know a few maidens that went 7 or 8 races taking alot of money while they searched for that illusive victory.

[Waquoit]

VIRTUAL SUCKER BET STAKES – 9 FURLONGS DIRT

1) BROTHER DEREK...
9) KISSIN KRIS...

Great list! I am still waiting for Kissin Kris...

[classhandicapper]

If Tacitus doesn't break out today against a Grade 2 field at 10F at Belmont with enough speed in the race to keep the pace honest, even the true believers will have to concede he was just another one of those promising 3yos that never developed and eventually was passed up by a lot of horses.

[GMB@BP]

If Tacitus doesn't break out today against a Grade 2 field at 10F at Belmont with enough speed in the race to keep the pace honest, even the true believers will have to concede he was just another one of those promising 3yos that never developed and eventually was passed up by a lot of horses.

He feels like this is an overwhelming opportunity to get a win. Even with the scratch of Jovia there should be plenty of pace, 10F in a small field should be enough to work out a trip.

[the little guy]

He feels like this is an overwhelming opportunity to get a win. Even with the scratch of Jovia there should be plenty of pace, 10F in a small field should be enough to work out a trip.

You are responding to a completely disingenuous post. He and Mr. Buff are about equally likely to win today and that's pretty obvious to everyone.

Just more BS regarding Tacitus.

[classhandicapper]

He feels like this is an overwhelming opportunity to get a win. Even with the scratch of Jovia there should be plenty of pace, 10F in a small field should be enough to work out a trip.

IMO, this is what he needed.

He never really broke out the way you'd hope a lightly raced Wood Memorial winner should eventually. He's been a high 90s and low 100 Beyer horse for a long time. That gets you some wins and a piece of some major races early in your 3yo season, but it's not going to get many Grade 1 wins as the other 3yos start breaking out and you eventually have to face older.

At the Grade 2 level the easier competition should make for an easier trip. A low 100 figure could get the job done even if still doesn't break out.

It's not that's he a bad horse. He's a good horse. It's that his reputation and hype have exceeded what he was doing on the track. Very good horses overcome some of the less than ideal trips. Pretty good horses run 2nd, 3rd, or 4th with an excuse. They've been betting him like he's a very good horse, but so far he's just been pretty good. Here's one more chance to break out and hit a big new top, but he's running out of chances.

[classhandicapper]

You are responding to a completely disingenuous post. He and Mr. Buff are about equally likely to win today and that's pretty obvious to everyone.

Just more BS regarding Tacitus.

Andy,

My Buff is a very nice horse.

He's a way above average statebred stakes horse. But no one would confuse him with high level Grade 1 horse at this point. The reason he has a chance against Tacitus is that this a Grade 2 event and because Tacitus is not a legitimate Grade 1 horse at this stage either.

Get it?

That's the point of contention.

The Tacitus fans (and I was one early on) keep making him out to be a very good Grade 1 horse who has just had some bad luck. The problem is that he hasn't developed much and still hasn't broken out to the Grade 1 level. At some point you have to look at reality. He was precocious at 3 winning the Wood, had a few tough trips, but so far he's still not a Grade 1 horse. He just gets bet and hyped like one by some people. That's why he's been such a big money burner (taking some of my money with him early on).

It's not too late for him to break out. Today may be the day. But if he loses this Grade 2, he's simply not the horse people were hoping he could become a year ago. That's all. And if you were honest with yourself you'd admit that rather than arguing with reality because you like the horse.

[cj]

It worries me the blinkers are going back on. It feels like a guessing game at this point for Bill Mott, somebody that certainly knows what he is doing.

[classhandicapper]

It worries me the blinkers are going back on. It feels like a guessing game at this point for Bill Mott, somebody that certainly knows what he is doing.

Not that I understand Mott's thinking, but I don't think it would be the worst idea if he was sitting 2nd or 3rd behind Mr Buff hoping that one doesn't want the last furlong and then having first move on Sir Winston in case that one is ready for a breakout performance.

[GMB@BP]

You are responding to a completely disingenuous post. He and Mr. Buff are about equally likely to win today and that's pretty obvious to everyone.

Just more BS regarding Tacitus.

Maybe your right, Mr Buff certainly has run better races lately but Tacitus has shown some real class and combined with the distance feels like he will be a strong favorite in the race and and the tote board.

[burnsy]

I made fun of him....... but this is a group he’s supposed to beat. I could never “single” this horse, but if he doesn’t win today ? I don’t care what the excuse is you gotta wonder if he’s just one that hangs every time

[Tom]

One thing is for certain.....there will not be a Handicap Triple winner this year.

[classhandicapper]

IMO, Tacitus is going to be the favorite (probably clear).

He's dropping into a weaker race, working better than he ever has in his career, seems set for a top effort, and the spot is almost certainly designed to try get a win into him to turn his career back around.

If he's going to break out, today is the day.

That's why I'm saying, if he doesn't, he's just not that good. I guess there's a chance he fires a big top and gets beat anyway, but that would be ridiculously bad luck.

[the little guy]

In a 5000 word dissertation, basically you will be right regardless of what happens ( unless he is not a clear cut favorite )....if he wins you called it and if he loses you said he was a phony.

Very helpful.

[classhandicapper]

In a 5000 word dissertation, basically you will be right regardless of what happens ( unless he is not a clear cut favorite )....if he wins you called it and if he loses you said he was a phony.

Very helpful.

I expect Tacitus to win but think he's unplayable. I don't want Mr Buff at 10F and think Morreti's last is at least somewhat suspect. Sir Winston would be the only one I'd consider, but I'm not convinced off the Belmont perfect trip.

I've been telling you the problem with the analysis of those that have been making excuses for Tacitus for close to a year and why a simple win over Mr Buff is not going to vindicate them. It's going to take more than that. Mr Buff is NOT a top graded horse. He's a 100 horse plus or minus a little.

Some of his fans on Twitter are already making excuses for him because Joevia got scratched and took some speed out of the race. They didn't even run the race yet. :lol:

[Robert Fischer]

Tacitus is not going to run down a loose, brave, top-Beyer Mr. Buff.


Tacitus will run down a wrong-lead Mr. Buff who had to do some work during the race.


Two scenarios.

In the forward-favoring scenario I want :4:MR. BUFF on top,
+ the 50/1ml :2: Parsimony and/or the :8:Moretti to hold on for a piece of the dime super.


In the fair scenario, I want :1: TACITUS on top, and the 30/1ml :3:Forewarned somewhere in my dime super.

[Tom]

In a 5000 word dissertation, basically you will be right regardless of what happens ( unless he is not a clear cut favorite )....if he wins you called it and if he loses you said he was a phony.

Very helpful.

"6 WINNERS yesta-day!"

"1 on top!" :headbanger:

[jay68802]

Will the :4: and :5: hook? If you think they will, I do, gives the pace dependent :3: a shot. Going to play him in all three slots.

[cj]

Will the :4: and :5: hook? If you think they will, I do, gives the pace dependent :3: a shot. Going to play him in all three slots.

5 scratched.

[jay68802]

5 scratched.

Big scratch.

[jimmyb]

I'm leaning towards Mr. Buff. I picture him leading as far as he goes.

tacitus up late or Mr. Buff all the way

[PhantomOnTour]

With Joevia out Tacitus may have to play watchdog to keep Mr Buff honest. I can't imagine that's the role Mott wants him to play. I think he chases in vain and gets passed by a few. Sir Winston seems poised to take advantage. Also using the #7 in minor slots...10f may be good for him.

Ex: 4-6 w 4-6-7
Tri: 4-6 w 1-4-6-8 w 7
Win: 6

[Spalding No!]

It worries me the blinkers are going back on. It feels like a guessing game at this point for Bill Mott, somebody that certainly knows what he is doing.

Yeah, seems like he's jumping the gun. The horse hadn't been out for 5 months when he finished with mild interest in Saudi Arabia and then did the same at Oaklawn in a merry-go-round race despite getting hung out to dry on the first turn and staying wide throughout. They often say 3rd time off the bench is the best.

Meanwhile, the previous blinker experiment was a complete bust. Yeah, he showed more speed but he also gave way down the lane in both starts. There is no Code of Honor in this field, though, so maybe he'll get it done despite the blinkers.

[Muddy]

:3: Scratched.

[Tom]

I'm leaning towards Mr. Buff. I picture him leading as far as he goes. Forewarned closing like a freight train


:4::3::1:

Late Scratch :3:

[jay68802]

Long ways back to the :8: and :2:.

[PhantomOnTour]

Funny splits: 48.3 - 110.8 ???
Hmmm....

[Tom]

Trakus pace of race:

24.84 48.36 1:10.81 1:35.11 1:59.64

[classhandicapper]

The time looked fairly quick, but we'll have to see what the figure was.

Mr Buff wanted nothing to do with 10F against better quality horses without the lead and/or a bias.

Sir Winston never lifted a hoof.

A longshot like Parsimony hung around with Moretti at the finish.

Not a stellar Grade 2, but he did what he was supposed to do in a field like this at even money.

[Robert Fischer]

Tacitus ran his race. Again. A vocal minority was badly fooled.

[GMB@BP]

Tacitus ran his race. Again. A vocal minority was badly fooled.

who didnt think this was going to be the spot spot for him in a long while?

He definitely ran his A race so that is nice to see.

[theotherside]

Could he have beat a weaker grade 2 field?

[jay68802]

Could he have beat a weaker grade 2 field?

Yes, he could. Can he beat G 1 competition is the question.

[dilanesp]

I always said he needed a class drop. He got one, and responded with his best race in a long time.

[the little guy]

I always said he needed a class drop. He got one, and responded with his best race in a long time.

He ran in the exact same class that he ran in last time.

Your record remains intact.

[burnsy]

Yes, he could. Can he beat G 1 competition is the question.

That is the question. But he probably can given the right field and set up. This horse and McKinzie are similar IMO. They are capable of winning Grade 1’s but when the best of the best show up both horses have proven that water is deep for them. In all reality the Met Mile was best field yesterday. These are good horses but people like me make fun of them because of short prices they draw in fields that they can’t usually beat. I pretty much thought he had to beat that field yesterday or there is a problem . But you can’t call either of these horses “over achievers” they’ve both lost big races multiple times while being over bet. McKenzie was a horrible price yesterday. You knew he might get out run..... again. That’s how you make money , eliminating horses like this when they reach their class ceiling. I get a laugh out of it but that’s the point of betting .

[classhandicapper]

He ran in the exact same class that he ran in last time.

Your record remains intact.

You are a very smart guy. You know this race was nowhere near the quality of the Oaklawn race even with the same class label.

The 100 Beyer figure makes some sense and fits with the rest of the day, but as the stand alone 10F race maybe you can argue it was a little faster. CJ has it a little faster, but I think he's had him a bit faster all along.

Either way, with Sir Winston not lifting a hoof, Mr Buff throwing in the towel at 10F against open company, and Parsimony in a battle with Moretti for the place (suggesting Moretti's last was indeed a bias aided win), this was a glorified allowance race.

He looked great, but he beat a bad Grade 2 field.

Even I thought there was a good chance he'd finally break out from the 100 Beyer range. But if that 100 is legit, he still hasn't moved forward from the spring of last year like you'd expect (given relative trips).

[burnsy]

I agree with Class. Until he beats a Maximum Security, Code Of Honor, Toms D’Etat or Vekoma you can’t take a short price . In that kind of race

[dilanesp]

He ran in the exact same class that he ran in last time.

Your record remains intact.

Andy, you are too good a handicapper to believe this. In this race he beat Moretti and Parsimony.

Please explain to the board how they are the same caliber of horse as Tacitus faced in earlier races.

This "your record is intact" at this point is a creepy obsession which is based on lies and gaslighting, and it needs to stop, now.

[Robert Fischer]

"sucker horse"? "finds a way to lose races"? - this is the false narrative


If you are defending that he isn't an all-time great, - you're missing the joke

[dilanesp]

"sucker horse"? "finds a way to lose races"? - this is the false narrative


If you are defending that he isn't an all-time great, - you're missing the joke

This was what I said on the first page of this thread:

Tacitus always has an excuse.

And at some point, horses that always have an excuse need to be treated as chronic losers and dropped in class.

He was finding ways to lose races at the class level he was at, while a devoted fanbase kept on making excuses for him. So they dropped him into an easier spot, and he took care of business. I don't see how I was wrong about any of this.

[castaway01]

I just got a private message from Tacitus and he's sick of all of you too.

[GMB@BP]

I just got a private message from Tacitus and he's sick of all of you too.

Thats too bad. Horses take criticism a lot better than people do...usually.

[classhandicapper]

"sucker horse"? "finds a way to lose races"? - this is the false narrative


If you are defending that he isn't an all-time great, - you're missing the joke

I don't think even the skeptics took it that far (at least among serious players). The issue has always been that he was impressive in the Wood and made some fans (myself among them).

Then the excuses started for all the losses.

1. In the Derby he was taking mud, wide and got taken up before finishing well

2. In the Belmont he would won except that he got hung wide on a good rail day.

3. In the Jim Dandy he stumbled badly at the start costing him about 3 lengths and then went to the rail in the stretch when that was worst part of the track.

4. In the Travers they put blinkers on him and he was used aggressively early near the rail on a bad rail day in the one race they probably should have backed off and closed outside.

5. I'm still searching for the excuse in the Gold Cup/Saudi Cup

6. In he OP handicap the "pace was supposedly too slow" even though every set of pace figures I've seen suggest the pace was average and the race flowed the way it did because the best horses were up front

When you look at his career, you see a very nice horse that was probably best in couple of races he lost, but MY MAIN POINT is that you also see a 3yo that was not progressing much figure-wise if you adjust the races for trip and a horse that couldn't overcome any adversity.

So while the biggest fans were focusing on trips and races he probably should have won, IMO they were missing the bigger picture that he wasn't progressing much since the Wood, was falling behind horses that were making progress, and wasn't as good as people once hoped.

I'm not so sure why it's such a big deal other than people dig into positions and refuse to change their mind even when new evidence comes in. I was big fan, bet on him a couple times, saw he wasn't going to be as good as I thought, and adjusted my thinking.

[PaceAdvantage]

I just got a private message from Tacitus and he's sick of all of you too.Post of the day. :pound:

[Spalding No!]

MY MAIN POINT is that you also see a 3yo that was not progressing much figure-wise if you adjust the races for trip and a horse that couldn't overcome any adversity.

So while the biggest fans were focusing on trips and races he probably should have won, IMO they were missing the bigger picture that he wasn't progressing much since the Wood, was falling behind horses that were making progress, and wasn't as good as people once hoped.

Who are all these horses he was falling behind?

The only horse of significance to separate himself definitively from Tacitus is Code of Honor. Maximum Security was a few lengths better than him in the KY Derby and remained so in Saudi Arabia (whether he will remain so sans Jason Servis--especially at 10f--remains to be seen). Tax has not been able to validate his form reversal on Tacitus in the Jim Dandy and appears to have tailed off compeletly (goose eggs in 2020 and no recent works).

Note that these quasi-tough horses that supposedly ran him off his feet at Oaklawn all came back to be obliterated against Grade 1 rivals.

I'd say Tacitus has more upside going forward than any of them.

[the little guy]

This was what I said on the first page of this thread:



He was finding ways to lose races at the class level he was at, while a devoted fanbase kept on making excuses for him. So they dropped him into an easier spot, and he took care of business. I don't see how I was wrong about any of this.

You don't see how you are wrong about anything despite the opposite being true the vast majority of the time.

Making excuses? Five wide trips at 12F against a gold rail, while losing to a horse that saved ground for over ten of those furlongs is hardly a fabricated excuse. Just as stumbling badly at the start and then ending up on a dead rail, and losing another close one is also not a BS excuse. Trying to close into a moderate pace that completely holds together, and significantly outperforming the other closers, is also not a phony excuse. This is all race analysis. It's not manufactured. It's legitimate. That doesn't make him the best horse in the country, but it sure makes him better than his results, which are better than almost any horse of his generation. You seem determined to let some bizarre personal animus cloud your thinking about this horse. I may disagree with you a lot, to say the least, but you are a very bright guy. Use those smarts to be less biased and you will stop joining a herd mentality that completely gets this horse wrong.

[Robert Fischer]

... the excuses started for all the losses.

1. In the Derby ..
2. In the Belmont ...
3. In the Jim Dandy ...
4. In the Travers...
5. I'm still searching for the excuse in the Gold Cup/Saudi Cup
6. In he OP handicap ..


When you look at his career, you see a very nice horse that was probably best in couple of races he lost, but MY MAIN POINT is that you also see a 3yo that was not progressing much figure-wise if you adjust the races for trip and a horse that couldn't overcome any adversity.
...

I respect your main point (maturity/improvement as a 4yo, and in general after adversity):ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

I really don't have a competent opinion there.
I don't necessarily see the game like that. I have to yield to yourself and others(Class, Andy, Cj, etc...), as far the speed figures...

Visually, while he hasn't jumped out as a late bloomer relative to his division, the things you'd expect to see from experience, are evident.

Form recap;

Kentucky Derby - was BSing w/ my buddy Paul Stock before the race, and I think we simultaneously said something like "Tacitus- about 3rd or 4th". Exactly where we both had him on tactical-speed/talent/projected-setup, etc..


Belmont - He was clearly best. What can I say? He ran the best race and was beaten by a better trip/ride.


Jim Dandy - memory not a strong suit, and too lazy to do any more HW on this debate, but didn't Tax run huge that day? Hats-off to team Tax and team Gargan, that was a memorable peak race for a likeable horse. Maybe Tacitus had a chart comment? but my awful memory claims that Tax simply ran a big one.

Travers- ? who the hell needs an excuse for a nice effort like that?


JCGC - I bet Vino with BOTH FISTS! (albeit, very small sums of cash in each hand :D ), and I was right, Vino fired a huge effort, and somehow Code of Honor also fired a huge effort, and then the stewards abjectly switched away from their standard procedure during the meet and disallowed herding. If you took Tacitus here you were wrong, and two huge efforts beat him.

Saudi Cup - Two huge efforts won (MaximumSteroidity& Midnight Bisou), but I think I only watched a highlight of the stretch. If you picked Tacitus here, you were wrong.



Oaklawn Handicap - Looked like a terrible underlay. I made a token bet against Tacitus in the Double and exacta. Awful post, and I wasn't in the camp that he was pointed hard to the race. Somehow he ran 4th. Was impressive and surprised me.


This was what I said on the first page of this thread:



He was finding ways to lose races at the class level he was at, while a devoted fanbase kept on making excuses for him. So they dropped him into an easier spot, and he took care of business. I don't see how I was wrong about any of this.

That's kinda the point Dilan.

tough to read into a message-board comment, but you are at best getting close to the silly place, where irrational 'haters' of Tacitus (were they unable, as gamblers, to pick spots during the last 7?) assign some mystical 'aversion to winning' to the horse.


I just got a private message from Tacitus and he's sick of all of you too.

:D:ThmbUp:

good one.
some needed comic-relief from those who think Tacitus "finds ways to lose", or that Mr. Buff (rather than being over-the-top, and failing to fire) read the Racing Form and lost because it was in name, a G2 in open-company.

[metro]

You don't see how you are wrong about anything despite the opposite being true the vast majority of the time.

Making excuses? Five wide trips at 12F against a gold rail, while losing to a horse that saved ground for over ten of those furlongs is hardly a fabricated excuse. Just as stumbling badly at the start and then ending up on a dead rail, and losing another close one is also not a BS excuse. Trying to close into a moderate pace that completely holds together, and significantly outperforming the other closers, is also not a phony excuse. This is all race analysis. It's not manufactured. It's legitimate. That doesn't make him the best horse in the country, but it sure makes him better than his results, which are better than almost any horse of his generation. You seem determined to let some bizarre personal animus cloud your thinking about this horse. I may disagree with you a lot, to say the least, but you are a very bright guy. Use those smarts to be less biased and you will stop joining a herd mentality that completely gets this horse wrong.

There's an argument to be made that the rail was good for the Met and the Suburban, especially considering Parsimony putting away Mr. Buff, and Network Effect running 2nd to Vekoma after a perfect rail trip.

[castaway01]

Thats too bad. Horses take criticism a lot better than people do...usually.

I tried to talk him down, but he just kept stomping his foot. On second thought, he might trying to tell me to bet the 2-4 exacta in the 3rd. I should have been more specific.

[dilanesp]

You don't see how you are wrong about anything despite the opposite being true the vast majority of the time.

Making excuses? Five wide trips at 12F against a gold rail, while losing to a horse that saved ground for over ten of those furlongs is hardly a fabricated excuse. Just as stumbling badly at the start and then ending up on a dead rail, and losing another close one is also not a BS excuse. Trying to close into a moderate pace that completely holds together, and significantly outperforming the other closers, is also not a phony excuse. This is all race analysis. It's not manufactured. It's legitimate. That doesn't make him the best horse in the country, but it sure makes him better than his results, which are better than almost any horse of his generation. You seem determined to let some bizarre personal animus cloud your thinking about this horse. I may disagree with you a lot, to say the least, but you are a very bright guy. Use those smarts to be less biased and you will stop joining a herd mentality that completely gets this horse wrong.

Thank you for a substantive response. Seriously, I appreciate that.

I think the line between "race analysis" and "excuses" is when there a horse strings together several of those sorts of races, a rational handicapper can conclude that the horse finds a way to lose.

As for "animus", I simply felt- and guess I still feel, despite his nice win over a nothing field- that the horse has been overrated. The people making excuses/race analysis about this horse have been very vocal about it. Whereas I was sitting here saying "he's losing over and over again, he always has an excuse, drop him in class!".

Now if this race is the springboard to a string of successes in the handicap division for Tacitus, I will gladly come back to this thread and admit I was wrong. But as of now, I still want to see Tacitus run against a legitimate field and beat them on the square. The Suburban was a very nice win, but he still has to answer a class question.

[the little guy]

So, let's make the list of horses from Tacitus's crop that we can clearly say are better than him.

Code of Honor

Vekoma at least up to one mile

Anyone else?

Not Maximum Security until he proves it going forward.

Not Mucho Gusto who lost to him fair and square in the Travers.

Not Game Winner who finished behind him in the Derby.

Improbable? Maybe but Tacitus drowned him the one time they met.

Anyone else?

Volatile? Maybe but tough to compare and Tacitus is much more accomplished at this point.

[theotherside]

Wow.

[the little guy]

Wow.

What was the confusing part? I think even GMB can explain this one to you.

[taxicab]

I just got a private message from Tacitus and he's sick of all of you too.

:D

[theotherside]

Actually I don't think anyone can explain that.

[Spalding No!]

Mott all over the place with trainerspeak post-race regarding maturity, blinkers, and the horse's next start.

I don't know what anyone else thought, but to me it looked like John Velasquez had a vise-grip for the first 1/2 mile or so on the colt who was pulling hard early (as might be anticipated w/ the addition of blinkers).

At any rate, Mott a bit contradictory here regarding the blinkers:

“It seemed to help quite a bit. The maturity and the blinkers all kind of seemed to come together,” Mott said.

Usually, when a horse matures it doesn't pull in the first part of the race and furthermore you usually see trainers remove blinkers as the horse gains some level of professionalism (see Alydar, Alysheba, Susan's Girl, Pleasant Tap, Tiznow).

Contradicts himself here, too, regarding why the blinkers were supposedly effective:

"It seems to make him level off a little more and stay in the bridle a little more," Mott said.

So the blinkers put him in the race and make him switch off at the same time?

At any rate, I'm sure there were some audible groans from the press members who were present when the following tasty tidbit on the colt's future was spewed. Not sure if a COVID-19 face mask would have protected the listener from instantaneous physical illness:

Mott said Tacitus would target “one or the other” between the Grade 1, $750,000 Whitney at nine furlongs on August 1 or the Grade 1, $500,000 Woodward at ten furlongs at Saratoga on Sept. 5.

I don't think even Todd Pletcher has found a way to avoid running in both races when they are over 4 weeks apart...

[cj]

I didn't realize the Woodward was 10f this year. I don't mind that.

I remember Pletcher skipping that one with Cross Traffic, but he did run Liam's Map in both. That might have changed had Liam's Map won the Whitney but who knows really. Running in both was so taxing he had to duck the Classic, a race he'd have been 2nd choice in, for the Dirt Mile.

[classhandicapper]

Who are all these horses he was falling behind?



Horses like Code of Honor and Maximum Security have move forward much more than he has. To that list I'd add Vekoma, Improbable, By My Standards and Mucho Gusto. They've all moved forward more.

Some of them have different distance preferences and others have been retired or hurt. However, my point is when you run a 97 Beyer in the Wood Memorial with a very rough trip as a spring 3yo and are still running around 100 as a 4yo, you haven't developed as much as the typical top 3yo.

Most early 3yos develop 7-10 points or more and some keep developing into their 4yo season. I would argue that in a few months AP Honor and some of the other top 3yos have a good chance to move past him unless he finally takes a big step forward. It's not impossible that he still breaks out as a very late developer, but we are still waiting. It usually happens by now.

(By the way, I also argued that the Oaklawn race was way better than the Suburban even though they have the same class designation. He took a huge class drop Saturday).

[classhandicapper]

So, let's make the list of horses from Tacitus's crop that we can clearly say are better than him.



Forget what the trolls on Twitter say and stick to serious discussion.

IMO, you are still missing or refusing to acknowledge the point I have been making.

It's not that he wouldn't have won more races with a clean trip. It's that he ran a 97 with a horrible trip in the Wood Memorial and he still hasn't broken out of the 100 Beyer range over a year later with clean trips.

At some point, you have to say to yourself, he was a good early 3yo that would have accomplished more except for some bad trips, but he also is not developing as much as the typical 3yo, hasn't been able to overcome any adversity to win a race, and isn't nearly as good as I once hoped. I came to that conclusion after the JCGC and feel like I was late to realize it.

That's not a horrible condemnation of the horse. It's an honest assessment.

[classhandicapper]

Hopefully this will be my last post on this subject, but it deserves further comment if you are speed figure inclined.

Earlier in the thread I noted that CJ has Tacitus running around 7 points faster (127- ~20 =107) than Beyer in the Suburban. As the only 10F race of the day and with my suspicion that Beyer and CJ have different time charts for 10F at Belmont, it's possible to conclude Tacitus did break out Saturday. Personally, I think both interpretations of the result make some sense given their own figures going in and a good case can be made either way depending on the figures you are using.

If you want to argue pro Tacitus with figures, use Timeform.

If you want to argue con Tacitus with figures, use Beyer.

[Tom]

The only question about Tacitus were is he worth a bet?

If you bet horizontal, you had to decide if he could win and worth including? Was he an A,B or C horse? Was he a play against?

You had to use him in verticals.

If you bet win, it was a good time for a hot dog and a beer.

Myself, I had a white hot and a Labatts.:p

[dilanesp]

Hopefully this will be my last post on this subject, but it deserves further comment if you are speed figure inclined.

Earlier in the thread I noted that CJ has Tacitus running around 7 points faster (127- ~20 =107) than Beyer in the Suburban. As the only 10F race of the day and with my suspicion that Beyer and CJ have different time charts for 10F at Belmont, it's possible to conclude Tacitus did break out Saturday. Personally, I think both interpretations of the result make some sense given their own figures going in and a good case can be made either way depending on the figures you are using.

If you want to argue pro Tacitus with figures, use Timeform.

If you want to argue con Tacitus with figures, use Beyer.

It's possible he had a breakout race. It's possible with the easier competition and the short field he was able to finally run his race.

I will say, if you had told me before the race "Tacitus is about 8 lengths better than Parsimony at 1 1/4 miles", I wouldn't have argued with you. We would need to see him run against some better horses again before making a definitive conclusion.

[Spalding No!]

Horses like Code of Honor and Maximum Security have move forward much more than he has. To that list I'd add Vekoma, Improbable, By My Standards and Mucho Gusto. They've all moved forward more.
Code of Honor clearly separated himself from Tacitus in the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup; some of that margin was amplified in my opinion by the ill-advised use of blinkers on Tacitus (which radically altered his running style) .

Maximum Security, although clearly a standout, has not developed further in his two turn races from the spring; he sat out the fall and showed improvement figure-wise around one-turn; the Saudi Cup form b/w Maximus Security and Tacitus was not radically different from the Kentucky Derby. Now under a cloud of suspicion and a new training program that may or may not benefit a horse that once started for $10K.

Vekoma, buried in the Derby, sat out the next 10 months or so and has come back sprinting to great effect. Even around one turn, he hasn't shown that much progress beyond figures. Network Effect had about 1.5 lengths to find on him as a 2yo and the margin is still the same now as 4yos.

Improbable woke up when dropped in trip and class after making no impression in 2 classics then completely fell apart despite staying in 2nd tier races the rest of the year. Mercifully got a break, and has shown promise pummeling the Suburban West...I mean Hollywood Gold Cup. We'll see if he can put 2 good races back-to-back.

By My Standards was an upstart last year on a secondary circuit and got drilled in the Derby, then went into a hole for the next 10 months. Still came back the upstart getting no respect on the board and won 2 grade 2 races. May have proven he is nothing more than a grade 2 horse when stomped on by Tom's d'Etat last out.

Mucho Gusto, widely inconsistent on form, was abandoned as a classic prospect and clawed his way back in second tier races before looking like a comer in the Haskell. It's been all down hill from there unless you're impressed with his facile win the Pegasus Allowance Cup or his erratic finish in Saudi Arabia. In retrospect, perhaps his Haskell just proves that Maximum Security has not progressed much (at least round 2 turns). Mucho Gusto hasn't worked in over 4 months now.

Meanwhile, Tacitus, who--aside from skipping the Preakness--ran in the top tier 3yo route races throughout the year. No big layoff, no cutback in distance, no trips to Indiana Grand or Remington Park. Despite a seasonal break after the JCGC he ambitiously placed in Saudi Arabia in his comeback and was hardly embarrassed. Now--like Improbable--after another tuneup he comes off a big run over some modest foes.

Most early 3yos develop 7-10 points or more and some keep developing into their 4yo season. I would argue that in a few months AP Honor and some of the other top 3yos have a good chance to move past him unless he finally takes a big step forward. It's not impossible that he still breaks out as a very late developer, but we are still waiting. It usually happens by now.
Plenty of horses have gotten better well beyond the 3yo and 4yo years. Cigar, Black Tie Affair, Speightstown, Riboletta, Accelerate, Pleasant Tap, Left Bank, The Wicked North, Singspiel, Sky Classic, Rubiano, Queena, Paradise Creek, Kotashaan, Escena, Criminal Type, Theatrical, Lemhi Gold, Pleasantly Perfect, Gift Box, Melatonin, Ron The Greek, Vigors, Wekiva Springs, etc.

(By the way, I also argued that the Oaklawn race was way better than the Suburban even though they have the same class designation. He took a huge class drop Saturday).
It certainly had way more horses. The top 3 all got outrun subsequently against tougher. Tacitus and Night Ops came out to win graded stakes this weekend.

[classhandicapper]

Spalding,

I'm not going to go through the record of each of those horses.

Suffice to say, they are all running better Beyer figures now than they were at around the same Tacitus broke out in the Wood Memorial with a terrible trip. He is not.

By My Standards just beat him at Oaklawn and Mucho Gutso finished ahead of him in Saudi Arabia after being around a 90 Beyer horse and not a serious Triple Crown horse in the spring.

I'm open to the possibility Tacitus will be a very late developer.

I'm open to the possibility that his Beyer for the Suburban is a little low.

If the point you and Andy are trying to make is that the trolls on Twitter have been unduly harsh, I agree. I even made the case for betting him a couple times last year. He was better than his record looks.

However, there's no denying he hasn't developed much and has never been able to win with any adversity (which I consider of one the hallmarks of quality).

The Suburban was a very easy spot. That's why I restarted the thread by saying if he doesn't win and break out here there's no longer a way to defend him. It was a gloried allowance race or listed stake with several of the supposed contenders having very serious holes.

IMO, Mr Buff was being overrated. He's a very good statebred that's especially dangerous loose on the lead, but he just lost a statebred race, his prior big figure was bias aided, and he got demolished every time he tried to carry his speed in graded company. Now he was being asked to stretch his speed to 10F against a legit Graded stake horse. IMO, his only chance of winning was being loose on a speed favoring track and Tacitus not showing up. I wanted no part of him and said so before the race along with most of the rest of the above.

We'll see where he goes, but I'm confident I have the balanced view of where he's been.

[Spalding No!]

I'm not going to go through the record of each of those horses.
Well then, this discussion won't be very fruitful.

Suffice to say, they are all running better Beyer figures now than they were at around the same Tacitus broke out in the Wood Memorial with a terrible trip. He is not.
I guess if we limit ourselves solely to Beyer Speed Figures, I suppose you are on to something. Of course, any way you slice it 100 is greater than 97.

By My Standards just beat him at Oaklawn and Mucho Gutso finished ahead of him in Saudi Arabia after being around a 90 Beyer horse and not a serious Triple Crown horse in the spring.
Although we are not counting such irrelevancies, both horses had an advantage on conditioning in the form of recent races.

However, there's no denying he hasn't developed much and has never been able to win with any adversity (which I consider of one the hallmarks of quality).
Of course, seconds ago you said that he won the Wood Memorial with a terrible trip.

IMO, Mr Buff was being overrated. He's a very good statebred that's especially dangerous loose on the lead, but he just lost a statebred race, his prior big figure was bias aided, and he got demolished every time he tried to carry his speed in graded company. Now he was being asked to stretch his speed to 10F against a legit Graded stake horse. IMO, his only chance of winning was being loose on a speed favoring track and Tacitus not showing up. I wanted no part of him and said so before the race along with most of the rest of the above.
I wish you'd do such a thorough dressing down on some of those horses that Tacitus is supposedly lengths behind. You know, the one's that are running similar figures to Mr. Buff, that had the benefit of cutbacks, time off, drops into listed stakes, prep races, and starts at second-tier tracks.

We'll see where he goes, but I'm confident I have the balanced view of where he's been.
You've ignored what could be construed as bad management on the part of the connections. As they have done with horses of less apparent substance (Hofburg and Hidden Scroll) Tacitus was essentially thrown to the wolves starting in 2019:

-Off a 4 month layoff and just a maiden win to his credit he was asked to compete in a major Derby prep which he won (a hallmark of quality)

-After having a clear excuse for defeat in the Jim Dandy (stumbled badly at the start), Mott inexplicably added blinkers to the horse; the result? A radically altered running style that was certainly not conducive to stretching back out to a classic distance of 10 furlongs; still showed gameness in the stretch while out-dueling the allegedly progressive Mucho Gusto

-After clearly going backwards with the addition of blinkers, Mott inexplicably left the blinkers on for the Jockey Club Gold Cup; a repeat of the Travers form could not have been a surprising result.

-Despite getting a sensible early end to 2019 to allow the horse to "grow", he is asked off a 5-month layoff to fly halfway around the world to face some of the best horses in training in some overblown vanity race.

-Left in the Near East for nearly a month to compete in another vanity project that was ultimately cancelled.

-After a solid stateside return showing some late finish in a merry-go-round event, Mott inexplicably adds the blinkers back on; horse is hard held early but nevertheless scores easily in a field of modest quality (though he does reverse form on the Belmont winner).

If Bobby Frankel was still around, this horse would probably be the next Aptitude (which, mind you, wouldn't be asking for too much).

[Robert Fischer]

At best, arguing about maturity of Tacitus vs. Mucho Gusto is a close call.

I haven't been following Mucho Gusto lately. Has he been retired, or is the barn waiting to see when/if they get hot again, and bring him back for one more late season big purse run?


Tacitus dueled with him on the pace in the Travers, and outperformed him. Neither AFAIK have really run tons better than that, since.

[classhandicapper]

Spalding,

It's unlikely we are going to agree on every bias, trip, field quality, condition and distance impact etc... but some things are objective and obvious.

Objectively, you can use Beyer, Thorograph, or Timeform (which is the most generous to him). The horse has developed very little.

He's a good horse, was one of the better 3yos last year, but he hasn't developed as much as some of the other 3yos or as much as you'd hope if you were an early fan like I was.

If/when he breaks out to a 110 or in that range against a quality field, that's when he's a legitimate Grade 1 older horse.

I'm not sure how such an obvious and innocent post saying if he doesn't win today he'll be hard to defend turned into this thread. He was supposed to beat that Suburban field easily, was bet like it, and he did. If he didn't, there would have been no defense.

[classhandicapper]

At best, arguing about maturity of Tacitus vs. Mucho Gusto is a close call.


In March of 2019 Mucho Gusto was running figures in the high 80s. He topped out at 90. He broke through to 95 in June. Got to 100 and 101 in the Haskell and Travers. Then he ran a 107 at GP in the Pegasus.

I never said he was better than Tacitus. He might be. They were competitive with each other in both the Travers and Saudi race. I gave him as one of several examples of horses in that crop that were clearly developing much faster than Tacitus. If anything, I'd say his development was greater than average.

[the little guy]

Hopefully this will be my last post on this subject

Many dreamed, but few believed.

[classhandicapper]

Many dreamed, but few believed.

:lol:

You just love the horse and couldn't handle even the slightest criticism or this wouldn't even be a thread. Be happy. He whooped a field he was supposed to whoop.

[Robert Fischer]

Nice graded stakes router with some memorable bad beats, you say??

But, if he loses to a loose Mr. Buff in a slow-paced race, that isn't true.

Ok, he was supposed to beat that weak field. If he doesn't run a 110 Beyer he's not a nice graded stakes router with some memorable bad beats.

OK, happy November 8th 2020. I have to tip my hat to that 111 Beyer 'Classic win by Tacitus yesterday. If you want to say he's a nice graded-stakes router w/ some memorable bad beats, I'm going to have to see him win a Grade 1 where the pace didn't fall apart late.


:faint:


seriously... he's one of the more fun horses to discuss. I hope he is back in the Woodward or Whitney or both. :ThmbUp:

[Spalding No!]

I hope he is back in the Woodward or Whitney or both. :ThmbUp:
He should be in both if he stays in form. Only excuse would be if he ran somewhere else instead.

In 1997, Skip Away won the Suburban and ran in both the Whitney and the Woodward PLUS ran in the Iselin at Monmouth in between those 2...

...and that was with figure darling Formal Gold in all 4 races.

[cj]

He should be in both if he stays in form. Only excuse would be if he ran somewhere else instead.

In 1997, Skip Away won the Suburban and ran in both the Whitney and the Woodward PLUS ran in the Iselin at Monmouth in between those 2...

...and that was with figure darling Formal Gold in all 4 races.

Figure darling? Forgetting figures, he was pretty damn good. He destroyed Skip Away in his last three races.

[Spalding No!]

Figure darling? Forgetting figures, he was pretty damn good. He destroyed Skip Away in his last three races.
No doubt; one of my favorite horses. He might have also registered the top Beyers for any horse in its first 3 career starts.

Just wanted to make sure that those only using figures knew he was a good horse if they didn't remember or know the name.

[the little guy]

No doubt; one of my favorite horses. He might have also registered the top Beyers for any horse in its first 3 career starts.

Just wanted to make sure that those only using figures knew he was a good horse if they didn't remember or know the name.

No self respecting racing fan doesn't know of the awesome talent that was Formal Gold. Clearly some non-self respecting ones do as well.

On another note, not that it makes a big difference, but when he and Skip Away, perhaps the most remarkable horse of the relatively modern era, ran in all four of those races, Skip Away likely added the Jockey Club Gold Cup as well, the Woodward was run at least a week later I believe.

[jimmyb]

Watched Skip Away and Formal Gold tangle In the Massachusetts Handicap putting put on the most thrilling stretch run I've seen live. Skip Away was a better horse with Jerry Bailey IMO.

[dilanesp]

No self respecting racing fan doesn't know of the awesome talent that was Formal Gold. Clearly some non-self respecting ones do as well.

On another note, not that it makes a big difference, but when he and Skip Away, perhaps the most remarkable horse of the relatively modern era, ran in all four of those races, Skip Away likely added the Jockey Club Gold Cup as well, the Woodward was run at least a week later I believe.

Skip Away ran two awesome races at Hollywood Park, and I saw both of them. He was wonderful.

And for that reason, though I never saw Formal Gold ran, I always respected him. Because while he didn't have the long list of accomplishments Skip Away did, he had to be super-good to beat him repeatedly when Skippy was at the top of his game.

[GMB@BP]

Skip Away ran two awesome races at Hollywood Park, and I saw both of them. He was wonderful.

And for that reason, though I never saw Formal Gold ran, I always respected him. Because while he didn't have the long list of accomplishments Skip Away did, he had to be super-good to beat him repeatedly when Skippy was at the top of his game.

great day that was, wont forget it. I was only at the BC day.

[classhandicapper]

Ah, the late 90s. The era before Beyer figures for Grade 1 horses magically started shrinking and ultimately leveled off about 6 or more points lower all while Thorograph was saying horses were getting faster and faster.

Ducks and runs!

:popcorn:

[Tom]

He had a good excuse today.....a horse was in front of him! :lol:

Well, it was a pretty strong Grade 3 race. :rolleyes:

ba dum.

Winner came out the race looking really good.
The rest came out of the race.

Probably didn't really need to run the Woodward this year, but at least it showed one horse with some kind of promise.

Wonder if the Derby gets a higher Beyer?

[dilanesp]

3 to 5! Ouch! More money went into the incinerator.

He sure knows how to hang.

[classhandicapper]

The Woodward was another example of what I've been saying.

If you "want to" make another excuse for Tacitus you can. You can say the pace was slow and he was forced into the uncomfortable chaser role. That's not an ideal setup for him. But that's not a realistic analysis. It's the way a fan thinks.

The difference between a horse like Tacitus and a legitimate high level Grade 1 horse is that the latter has the reserves in the tank to overcome a less than ideal trip against inferior opponents. Those are the horses that pile up wins and the kind of overall record that makes them stand out. Even when the figures are similar, the horses are not.

A legitimate Grade 1 horse would have stalked a horse like Global Campaign and won despite being out if its perfect comfort zone.

Tacitus is a very nice horse that's had some legitimate bad luck, but he hasn't developed much since last spring and is not good enough to compete at the highest level at this stage in his career.

[burnsy]

I totally agree Class. And I thought he would win yesterday’s race. The fact he didn’t shows all the weaknesses he has as you stated. The difference between him and a horse like Maximum Security is Max refuses to stop running even when he’s put in the chasing position which is every other trip he gets..... but still wins. Tacitus does not have that killer instinct to prevail in him. You can’t win every time. But He falls flat at a short price way too often. Some make it seem like you are being mean by pointing out the truth.... this horse has “win” issues.....but is continually bet

[VeryOldMan]

3 to 5! Ouch! More money went into the incinerator.

He sure knows how to hang.

This ongoing thread was literally the first thing I thought of after Incinerator, er, Tacitus crossed the finish line second yet again :)

[clicknow]

He had a good excuse today.....a horse was in front of him! :lol:

Thank you........belly laughing here. :D

[Robert Fischer]

Rooting for him to get his G1 today, in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

[Tom]

At least he gets participation trophies for never really moving ahead and being a solid second tier stakes horse. :rolleyes:

He is a nice horse if you play exactas or triples.

I liked Dollar Bill, too.:lol:


101 today? :rolleyes:

[Robert Fischer]

Tacitus has been unlucky.
Today is the day.

At least he gets participation trophies for never really moving ahead and being a solid second tier stakes horse. :rolleyes:

He is a nice horse if you play exactas or triples.

I liked Dollar Bill, too.:lol:


101 today? :rolleyes:

[Robert Fischer]

the pace scenario is mildly interesting here.

Some pressure to 'put Tacitus into the race', even though this is a BC prep, it's also a G1...

[Tom]

Well, he did beat two horses......:rolleyes:

More bad news for Tacitus - Finger Lakes is not offering any stakes races this year.

Maybe next year.

[classhandicapper]

He is what he is over and over and over and over again.

He's a nice horse that we'd all love to own, but he doesn't have the reserve racing energy to be used during a race, maintain the battle, and still win a high quality race. He gets gassed much quicker than legitimate Grade 1 caliber horses when he's used.

The problem is qualitative.

When the figures look similar, great horses have enough in reserve to overcome racing against the pace, a bias, with ground loss, after being left etc.. and still finish well enough to beat all but other great horses. Good horses have enough in reserve to win when they are supposed to given the trips. Cheaper horses win when they get handed everything their own way.

He's not a Grade 1 older horse. Based on today's race he's probably not even a legitimate Grade 2 older horse. He hasn't made much if any progress since the spring/summer of last year.

[jimmyb]

No guts no glory.

[Spalding No!]

He's not a Grade 1 older horse. Based on today's race he's probably not even a legitimate Grade 2 older horse. He hasn't made much if any progress since the spring/summer of last year.
Rates an upset chance in the BC Classic if he gets blinkers off and is held off the pace.

The Classic is not looking like a strong renewal on current form this year. Most of the principals are coming off losses and/or "training up to the race". Not gonna trust in Improbable as the favorite especially at 10 furlongs.

Tacitus and Code of Honor will get lost in the shuffle with their rather low-key campaigns thus far, but they could very well get the setup they desperately need.

Especially if the the Godolphin run-off from Europe shows up to up-end the pace scenario.

[airford1]

Please change his name to "Takabus"

[dilanesp]

Rates an upset chance in the BC Classic if he gets blinkers off and is held off the pace.

The Classic is not looking like a strong renewal on current form this year. Most of the principals are coming off losses and/or "training up to the race". Not gonna trust in Improbable as the favorite especially at 10 furlongs.

Tacitus and Code of Honor will get lost in the shuffle with their rather low-key campaigns thus far, but they could very well get the setup they desperately need.

Especially if the the Godolphin run-off from Europe shows up to up-end the pace scenario.

https://youtu.be/VcjzHMhBtf0

[dilanesp]

What's the excuse this time? Doesn't like to run on the lead? Had to give weight to those 3 year olds? Got caught in a vise between horses?

And again, 3 to 5! You could capitalize Citibank with all the money that has been lost on this horse.

[jimmyb]

He ran from a fight. Nothing else to see other than a repeat at the BC.

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Please change his name to "Takabus"

:lol::pound:

He is basically another Hoppertunity-type of horse. Just collects paychecks and sometimes gets a lucky break to win when the stars and planets align perfectly.

[Spalding No!]

What's the excuse this time? Doesn't like to run on the lead? Had to give weight to those 3 year olds? Got caught in a vise between horses?

The horse is utterly useless with blinkers. Tacitus is meant to come off the place and Mott jumped the gun adding them for the Suburban after Jose Lezcano and John Velasquez got the horse to settle and finish in his first 2 starts of the year. This coming after all the damage done during Blinker Fiasco Part 1 in 2019 (see Travers + JCGC).

Even when Mott added them back, John Velasquez was smart enough not to follow the trainer's lead and wisely put a vice grip on the horse out of the gate in the Suburban, who in turn settled and responded with a classic "third-off-the-layoff" peak performance. The same can't be said for Jose Ortiz as he and Mott have been caught up worried about other people's horses in the small, paceless fields he's met in his last pair.

Since Mott is still at the helm, and inexplicably still thinks the blinkers are a good idea, I'm not going to hold my breath that he will take them off again. And he won't get John Velasquez back with Authentic in line for the Classic.

That said, plenty of bridesmaid types and Grade 2-types have won the BC Classic. Wild Again, Skywalker, Arcangues, Alphabet Soup, Cat Thief, Volponi, Pleasantly Perfect, Drosselmeyer, and Vino Rosso all fit that bill. Had Ferdinand not had a well orchestrated build-up to the 1987 BC in well-spaced, sub-tier races (Cabrillo, Goodwood), I'm sure we could get a few on this board to call him a bridesmaid, too.

[classhandicapper]

Rates an upset chance in the BC Classic if he gets blinkers off and is held off the pace.

The Classic is not looking like a strong renewal on current form this year. Most of the principals are coming off losses and/or "training up to the race". Not gonna trust in Improbable as the favorite especially at 10 furlongs.

Tacitus and Code of Honor will get lost in the shuffle with their rather low-key campaigns thus far, but they could very well get the setup they desperately need.

Especially if the the Godolphin run-off from Europe shows up to up-end the pace scenario.


I agree that Tacitus is probably better off making one run from off pace and hoping the race falls apart, but I'd way rather have Code of Honor in that scenario than Tacitus. Code of Honor made a couple of nice runs against the flow this year. If he gets a favorable setup instead of being against it, he could run a big one. He's one I am already considering using. Tacitus beat a listed stakes field masquerading as a Grade 2 and lost yesterday in a Grade 2/3 masquerading as the JCGC.

I'd need a BIG price to use Tacitus, but that doesn't seem likely given the public still loves him. Then again, I'm wrong way more often than I'm right just like everyone else and I respect your opinion a lot.

[Spalding No!]

I agree that Tacitus is probably better off making one run from off pace and hoping the race falls apart, but I'd way rather have Code of Honor in that scenario than Tacitus. Code of Honor made a couple of nice runs against the flow this year. If he gets a favorable setup instead of being against it, he could run a big one. He's one I am already considering using. Tacitus beat a listed stakes field masquerading as a Grade 2 and lost yesterday in a Grade 2/3 masquerading as the JCGC.
I agree. At this early stage, Code of Honor would be the horse that appears to be an appealing 'live longshot'. Not sure why he didn't make a dent in the BC last year and he has no big effort in a Grade 1 this year so his overall class is still in question, but he's always been a bit spotty on form.

I'd need a BIG price to use Tacitus, but that doesn't seem likely given the public still loves him. Then again, I'm wrong way more often than I'm right just like everyone else and I respect your opinion a lot.
I think you'll finally see a big number on Tacitus (if he even starts to begin with). The appeal of the Suburban score will have surely worn especially for a race like the Classic which will have a large field of horses with better paper form (as opposed to the small suspect fields he's been facing in his NY starts).

Again for me he would have to have blinkers off to even remotely consider him and it's not set in stone that there will be a very strong, contentious pace. I haven't really followed the form closely but it seems Global Campaign, By My Standards, Maximum Security and Art Collector aren't necessarily committed front runners and even Authentic was able to settle off another horse in the Preakness.

[classhandicapper]

it's not set in stone that there will be a very strong, contentious pace. I haven't really followed the form closely but it seems Global Campaign, By My Standards, Maximum Security and Art Collector aren't necessarily committed front runners and even Authentic was able to settle off another horse in the Preakness.

Some of it may depend on the field size. When a field is large, even if you don't have many pure front runners, if there are a lot of horses that like to be forwardly placed, they can sometimes make for a faster than average pace because they are all trying to secure a position in the top 3-4 instead of mid pack or worse.

[1GCFAN]

What we did see is a three old with a lot of upside, Happy Saver continues to improve his beyers and received 100 in the Jockey Club.

[Spalding No!]

Jinxed that:

Code of Honor bypassing the BC in favor of the Clark or Cigar Mile.

(of course, it's not like the BC conflicts with either race; I won't second guess McGaughey--maybe he thinks the horse is not up to snuff--I just hope it's not some directive from the people in control of the horse's stallion career).

[GMB@BP]

Jinxed that:

Code of Honor bypassing the BC in favor of the Clark or Cigar Mile.

(of course, it's not like the BC conflicts with either race; I won't second guess McGaughey--maybe he thinks the horse is not up to snuff--I just hope it's not some directive from the people in control of the horse's stallion career).

Going to be a record breaking bc in terms of talent I predict.

[Spalding No!]

Going to be a record breaking bc in terms of talent I predict.
BC Marathon won't look so out of place this year.

[cj]

Jinxed that:

Code of Honor bypassing the BC in favor of the Clark or Cigar Mile.

(of course, it's not like the BC conflicts with either race; I won't second guess McGaughey--maybe he thinks the horse is not up to snuff--I just hope it's not some directive from the people in control of the horse's stallion career).

This game is getting tougher and tougher to love. Few want to actually race horses any more.

[classhandicapper]

Jinxed that:

Code of Honor bypassing the BC in favor of the Clark or Cigar Mile.



Unless they know something I don't know, this is at least a debatable move. Maybe they are taking his races this year at face value and think he's not good enough, but I think he didn't get ideal setups in a few races and would be a threat to get a major piece with a decent setup.

[Spalding No!]

Unless they know something I don't know, this is at least a debatable move. Maybe they are taking his races this year at face value and think he's not good enough, but I think he didn't get ideal setups in a few races and would be a threat to get a major piece with a decent setup.
I wouldn't be shocked if this was a Lane's End Farm (the owner) move. They just dumped the horse's young sire Noble Mission--a full brother to Frankel no less--presumably because Code of Honor has been his only "name" horse (never mind that he only has 2 crops currently racing and is meant to be a turf sire).

My guess is they are trying to soldify and preserve Code of Honor's reputation with those Travers and JCGC wins and the precocious effort in the Champagne at 2. The gravy would be if he actually wins the Clark or Cigar he adds another feather in his cap.

On the other hand, two unplaced finishes in back-to-back BC Classic's would (rightfully) expose him, and we can't have that...

[1GCFAN]

Yes, I too was looking forward to code in the BCC. It will be wide open.

[Someday Silent]

The horse is utterly useless with blinkers. Tacitus is meant to come off the place and Mott jumped the gun adding them for the Suburban after Jose Lezcano and John Velasquez got the horse to settle and finish in his first 2 starts of the year. This coming after all the damage done during Blinker Fiasco Part 1 in 2019 (see Travers + JCGC).

Even when Mott added them back, John Velasquez was smart enough not to follow the trainer's lead and wisely put a vice grip on the horse out of the gate in the Suburban, who in turn settled and responded with a classic "third-off-the-layoff" peak performance. The same can't be said for Jose Ortiz as he and Mott have been caught up worried about other people's horses in the small, paceless fields he's met in his last pair.

Since Mott is still at the helm, and inexplicably still thinks the blinkers are a good idea, I'm not going to hold my breath that he will take them off again. And he won't get John Velasquez back with Authentic in line for the Classic.

That said, plenty of bridesmaid types and Grade 2-types have won the BC Classic. Wild Again, Skywalker, Arcangues, Alphabet Soup, Cat Thief, Volponi, Pleasantly Perfect, Drosselmeyer, and Vino Rosso all fit that bill. Had Ferdinand not had a well orchestrated build-up to the 1987 BC in well-spaced, sub-tier races (Cabrillo, Goodwood), I'm sure we could get a few on this board to call him a bridesmaid, too.

It's quite inaccurate to describe Pleasantly Perfect and Vino Rosso as "bridesmaids".

[Spalding No!]

It's quite inaccurate to describe Pleasantly Perfect and Vino Rosso as "bridesmaids".
Maybe so. The point was they were not at the top of their division during the lead up to the BC Classic.

Pleasantly Perfect hadn't won a Grade 1 and couldn't get within 3 lengths of either Milwaukee Brew or Congaree before the Classic that year.

Vino Rosso was 1 for 7 in Grade 1 starts and had 3 or 4 lengths to find on McKinzie leading up to the Classic.

[clicknow]

On the other hand, two unplaced finishes in back-to-back BC Classic's would (rightfully) expose him, and we can't have that...

Not sure what you mean by expose; I say this because I love his breeding, very much. Specatular.

Problem is there's not a lot of the right type of races for a horse like him here in the U.S. I get tired of watching the stamina horses run out of track and then everybody calls them a tomato can.

[Spalding No!]

Not sure what you mean by expose; I say this because I love his breeding, very much. Specatular.
Exposed as in proven (through racing) to be inferior to the top of his division. Code of Honor has some excuses this year that might explain away his lack of success in his Grade 1 starts, but a poor effort under the right conditions (full field, solid pace, classic distance) in the BC Classic would have cemented the possibility that he simply isn't good enough.

Problem is there's not a lot of the right type of races for a horse like him here in the U.S. I get tired of watching the stamina horses run out of track and then everybody calls them a tomato can.
No doubt, which makes the decision to pass on one of the few opportunities to get the ideal race conditions Code of Honor needs all the more perplexing.

However, some have suggested that the connections think Code of Honor is more of a middle distance/miler type horse. The bottom side of the pedigree is certainly geared towards speed with Dixie Union, Capote, Mt. Livermore, Blushing Groom, and Bold Forbes present.

[Someday Silent]

Vino Rosso was 1 for 7 in Grade 1 starts and had 3 or 4 lengths to find on McKinzie leading up to the Classic.

Ahh, yes... *Officially* Vino Rosso was 1 for 7 in G1 races, but he still crossed the wire first in the JCGC. I won't go down the rabbit hole of his disqualification, but that race showed he was a Classic contender. As for McKinzie, he had his moments but never demonstrated a true ability to get 10 furlongs.

[Spalding No!]

Ahh, yes... *Officially* Vino Rosso was 1 for 7 in G1 races, but he still crossed the wire first in the JCGC. I won't go down the rabbit hole of his disqualification, but that race showed he was a Classic contender. As for McKinzie, he had his moments but never demonstrated a true ability to get 10 furlongs.
We're basically arguing for the same side.

I don't disagree that Vino Rosso was a BC Classic contender. He simply wasn't a win machine. But given the weak field for the 2019 Classic and McKinzie's distance limitations, his profile got a boost. Overall, his race record won't stir memories of greatness just like many other BC Classic winners.

IMO, given the way the race is shaping up (weak field w/ declining form, decent pace scenario) things can still fall into place for a whipping boy like Tacitus (...if they take the blinkers off).

[classhandicapper]

IMO, given the way the race is shaping up (weak field w/ declining form, decent pace scenario) things can still fall into place for a whipping boy like Tacitus (...if they take the blinkers off).

Come on man. You are one of the sharpest and most detailed guys on the entire forum. Half the field will have to collapse and Tacitus would have to run a lifetime top for him to win.

I happen to agree that the best move would be to take the blinkers off and try to make one late run, but sometimes marriages end in divorce. It's time for a trial separation from this money burning machine unless you are getting a VERY good price. I wouldn't want to talk you off a horse that may get a good trip at a good price...not even Tacitus. ;)

[dilanesp]

Come on man. You are one of the sharpest and most detailed guys on the entire forum. Half the field will have to collapse and Tacitus would have to run a lifetime top for him to win.

And then even then, he has to not find one of his many ways of getting into trouble and getting beat.

I do get that everything has a price. If the bettors are so sick of Tacitus that he's up there at an Aracangues-like price, sure, I can understand saying he has SOME small chance of winning and taking the plunge.

But bettors have stuck with this horse. His career is loaded with races where he was overbet, not underbet. So it would be surprising if he isn't overbet again in the BC.

[Spalding No!]

Half the field will have to collapse and Tacitus would have to run a lifetime top for him to win.
The form of the Classic probables going into the Classic is quite interesting and leaves a lot of question marks.

First, as it stands now, Tacitus and Authentic will be the only horses with a start in October. Improbable and Maximum Security ran in late September. All others "trained up to the race".

Of those "training up to the race" only Global Campaign has trained in his regular pattern since his last start. Curiously, all others have drunk the Baffert Kool-Aid and decided that their horses need to rattle off bullet work after bullet work heading into the Classic:

By My Standards' last 3 works were bullets when he usually works slow and only works fast right before a race. Tom's d'Etat took 6 weeks to work back from the Whitney and his last 2 works were bullets going 6 furlongs; he rarely breezed fast previously. Higher Power, who didn't show up for the Fayette, has 3 fast works at 6f and 7f since shipping to KY.

Barclay Tagged adopted a bullet-fest work pattern for Tiz The Law after his Belmont win; prior to that, the horse would work in mostly modest times. He significantly skipped the Preakness when reportedly "not ready to work" and only did work 3 weeks after the Derby (whereas he worked back within 2 weeks of his previous 2 races). His second work back was a botch job, going 5f in a ridiculous :57+. His last 2 works have been fast 6f moves, a distance he hadn't breezed since March, not even during the hiatus between the FL Derby and Belmont.

The 3 horses from the beleaguered Baffert barn are obviously working fast though curiously Maximum Security, who ran the worst race of his career last out, only went 5 furlongs in his last work while the other 2 went 7 furlongs. He's been working in company (and galloped out strongly in the last one) so maybe that explains the choice of distance. Even in his wins this year he's looked ordinary at best.

Given many of the above are coming off losses, have health questions, have stamina concerns, and yet have ramped up work patterns, we might very well witness a battle of attrition that a horse like Tacitus would need to make a dent.

Tacitus had a moderate half mile work since the JCGC. He normally works decent times, but we'll see if the experienced Mott foolishly tries to do something out of the ordinary. Hopefully, with plenty of races under his belt, he simply stays on a maintenance pattern and then one can start visiting church and praying for "blinkers off".

[Robert Fischer]

"Form" looks like Tacitus should run in a mile allowance/OC at Woodbine.



We know most of the major players.




I'm not a big Global Campaign fan, but he's turned in some good races.

Guess it's 'see the field', + watch some workout vids of Baffert etc...


Tacitus is a cool horse. And, he's had several tough trips where he performed competitively in spite of the trip, for legitimate upgrades. Currently, his form may even have 'declined'. However, he hasn't developed to where his potential suggested. Not every horse we love, turns out to be a division leader.

[Spalding No!]

Not every horse we love, turns out to be a division leader.
Who cares about being a division leader? He just needs to run like Volponi in the BC Classic (the first one he ran in, not the second).

[dilanesp]

Who cares about being a division leader? He just needs to run like Volponi in the BC Classic (the first one he ran in, not the second).

I hear Chris Harn has him on his Pick Six ticket.

[cj]

I hear Chris Harn has him on his Pick Six ticket.

Well yeah he has ALL in the Classic.

[clicknow]

Tacitus is a cool horse. And, he's had several tough trips where he performed competitively in spite of the trip, for legitimate upgrades. Currently, his form may even have 'declined'. However, he hasn't developed to where his potential suggested. Not every horse we love, turns out to be a division leader.

He might have done better under a different trainer. This wasn't a good fit.


Was never a Tacitus fan, so he never took money from me. But now that I see what's what, I would probably find a place for him on my ticket.

I doubt I will play this race --- avoiding races where Baffert has runners is only way I can enjoy racing.

[dilanesp]

A typical Tacitus performance.

[classhandicapper]

A typical Tacitus performance.

IMHO, they did the right thing with him.

They were hoping the pace was hot, the race collapsed, and a late run could pull off the upset. The pace wasn't fast and he probably would have been outkicked by several others anyway, but they probably maximized his finish and their check for the race with that strategy ($$$). IMO, had they used him early to be in contention and engaged he probably would have finished up the track. He is what he is. He was a very good early 3yo that never developed much and is more of a Grade 2 horse against older.

[Valuist]

I don't know why any horse bettor wouldn't like Tacitus. Not, of course, for them to bet. But for other people to bet and creating value elsewhere. These chronic "non winners" are not going to suddenly figure it out. Take advantage.

[Spalding No!]

These chronic "non winners" are not going to suddenly figure it out. Take advantage.
Alysheba, John Henry, Accelerate, Criminal Type, Farma Way, Cigar, Pleasant Tap, Game On Dude, Alphabet Soup, Aptitude, Saint Liam, Lava Man, Bates Motel, Vigors, Big Spruce, Cutlass Reality, Jovial, Turkoman, Star of Cozzene, Black Tie Affair, Escena, Hidden Lake, Kotashaan, Rubiano, Aldebaran, Riboletta, Dispersal, Langfuhr, Fit to Fight, Another Review, Garthorn, Beau Genius

[ronsmac]

Alysheba, John Henry, Accelerate, Criminal Type, Farma Way, Cigar, Pleasant Tap, Game On Dude, Alphabet Soup, Aptitude, Saint Liam, Lava Man, Bates Motel, Vigors, Big Spruce, Cutlass Reality, Jovial, Turkoman, Star of Cozzene, Black Tie Affair, Escena, Hidden Lake, Kotashaan, Rubiano, Aldebaran, Riboletta, Dispersal, Langfuhr, Fit to Fight, Another Review, Garthorn, Beau GeniusGreat memory. Cutlass reality baffled me. I was a young guy in the military stationed in California when he went on his run. According to equibase, he won 7 of his first 56 races before going on a 7 for 9 tear including the destruction of Alysheba and Ferdinand.

[dilanesp]

Great memory. Cutlass reality baffled me. I was a young guy in the military stationed in California when he went on his run. According to equibase, he won 7 of his first 56 races before going on a 7 for 9 tear including the destruction of Alysheba and Ferdinand.

I think Cutlass Reality was just a horse who discovered he really loved California racetracks. After his amazing performances out here, he went back to Kentucky... and stiffed in the BC Classic.

There are horses like that. Lava Man was one, and the ultimate one was Noor, who basically ran some of the fastest races in American racing history, beating two TC winners and multiple division champions in California, while being unable to duplicate his form back east.

Sometimes there are explanations for these things. E.g., it looks like Cigar was a dirt horse who kept on being run on the grass. Alysheba had an entrapped epiglottis which was fixed and made him a completely different horse.

Other times, we have no idea what went on.

[clicknow]

A typical Tacitus performance.

Indeed.

Having a predictable horse in a race that you can plop down in 4th place is a good thing if you are playing exotics or super high five.

I would never complain about it. I'm not sick of him at all.

[johnhenry81]

The hard hitting horse hits the track yet again at the highest levels of racing, as he has through his 2yo, 3yo , 4yo and now as a 5 yo.
Set to go in the 20mm Saudi Cup.
Purse money is paid through 5th place, and this guy has cashed a check in every one of his 16 starts spanning 4 years.
Mustn't he be regarded as one of the games top recent performers considering he has not been sent to stud, and he is not a gelding.
Hail Hail, or Hell no?

[castaway01]

The hard hitting horse hits the track yet again at the highest levels of racing, as he has through his 2yo, 3yo , 4yo and now as a 5 yo.
Set to go in the 20mm Saudi Cup.
Purse money is paid through 5th place, and this guy has cashed a check in every one of his 16 starts spanning 4 years.
Mustn't he be regarded as one of the games top recent performers considering he has not been sent to stud, and he is not a gelding.
Hail Hail, or Hell no?

He won one race last year. Since the Wood Memorial in April 2019 he's 1 for 11. How does that make him one of the top performers in racing?

[classhandicapper]

Ironically, I give him a better chance in this race than some of the others he was heavily bet in.

Charlatan has high quality sprint speed. Baffert likes to send his speed horses even when there are other quality speeds in the race. He tries to seize control and discourage the others.

Knicks Go is doing all his winning on the lead and has never demonstrated he can sit off the lead and finish, especially going 9F.

I can't see how this pace can be slow. It's the degree of fast that's the question mark. I think that depends more on what Baffert wants to do with Charlatan. Personally, I think Charlatan is the faster horse, but I think Knicks Go is almost a lock to go hard for the lead. My guess is that both will send but if Knicks Go is hell bent on the lead, Charlatan will stalk and try to out finish him like he did when the faster Nashville outran him going short rather than committing suicide.

I think both horses would probably be better off if this was 8F rather than 9F because at 9F with fast pace or a tiring track, someone could pick them both up. If someone does, the best "known" quality is obviously Tacitus.

Could it finally happen? :lol:

There are so many unknown qualities in the race, it's hard to tell which of them may finish strongly if the pace gets fast or the track is tiring. It could even be one of the turfers. I think a lot will depend on how the track is playing that day.

[GMB@BP]

This would be the type of race he wins and goes down as immortal 8 figure earner.

[Parkview_Pirate]

This would be the type of race he wins and goes down as immortal 8 figure earner.

Good one. Pretty much any horse that wins this "Da Cup" meets that criteria, with a $20M purse up for grabs

Tacitus is the second leading earner in the race, behind the :4: dog from Japan, both with M/Ls of 15-1.

[classhandicapper]

I thought Charlatan ran a huge race. To outrun a quality speed like Knicks Go, repulse a very strong bid, put him away, and then drop to what appeared to be slightly worse going on the inside through the stretch to only get caught late was pretty impressive for a horse making only his 5th start. The best is probably ahead for him in these 8f/9f middle distance races.

Knicks Go may have been disadvantaged a bit running inside, but running into another quality speed that was faster was problematical since he’s never won except on the lead.

The winner wasn’t easy to come up with (at least for me), but he looked absolutely tremendous on the track and ran to his looks rallying in what appeared to be the best paths away from the rail through the stretch.

[dilanesp]

Sorry guys. Tacitus is still Tacitus.

[classhandicapper]

Sorry guys. Tacitus is still Tacitus.

:lol:

Even I was disappointed with his effort today. Personally, I think they'd be better off sitting further off the pace and making a single run with him. If you use him at all that's when he tends to hang and weaken late. Today he was kind of close to those faster and better horses while inside. With only 4 dirt races it's hard to tell exactly how the track was playing, but if you put a gun to my head I'd rather have been outside.

With the right trip maybe he have done a little running late and picked up 3rd or 4th given that Charlatan put Knicks Go away, but he was empty late.

[cj]

:lol:

Even I was disappointed with his effort today. Personally, I think they'd be better off sitting further off the pace and making a single run with him. If you use him at all that's when he tends to hang and weaken late. Today he was kind of close to those faster and better horses while inside. With only 4 dirt races it's hard to tell exactly how the track was playing, but if you put a gun to my head I'd rather have been outside.

With the right trip maybe he have done a little running late and picked up 3rd or 4th given that Charlatan put Knicks Go away, but he was empty late.

He made 500k, love to own him. :)

[classhandicapper]

He made 500k, love to own him. :)

He's a good horse.

He's a victim of the hype he received from some people when he was a 3yo.

If he was my horse, I'd take him back, make one late run, and hope the race fell apart. It's either that or run in Grade 2 and Grade 3 races.

If you use him to get position up close or make a strong move trying to win against the best horses in the world he's going to hang or tire. You aren't going win many races taking a horse way back and making one run. You need for the race to collapse otherwise you'll just clunk up for piece. But if you are going to run a horse over his head and put him in the middle of the battle you'll get less.

[johnhenry81]

Disappointing finish position 7th, even by his standards. But he did make $500k to total nearly $4m to date.
On to Dubai to collect another check!
My namesake John Henry earned $6.5m with 39 wins!

[Robert Fischer]

Looked like a great event.

from a betting standpoint, i get a touch of healthy apprehension, every time a Baffert or a Cox or a Gosden or everyone else enters a new environment, to where I want an opinion, and a healthy margin of safety should training protocols be abruptly different.

It's one thing to see the same cast of characters take their show to the Breeders cup or local California Graded Stakes, and you watch a bunch of the races leading up to the major stakes and get a feel for whether horses are continuing to run lifetime best performances or not, -and a somewhat more apprehensive thing (at least in my twisted mind) to go to a new atmosphere of power dynamics.

However healthy any gambling apprehension may be, it's probably unfounded. It's probably safe to assume that the event takes precedent, and that the star connections and horses are fully invited to perform at their very best.

I believe that was what we were privy to.


The real fun was whether Charlatan would be able to withstand the challenge of the mighty Knicks Go.

I think we got to see a great duel there. We can quibble that Knicks Go should really have been 'quarter-horsed' a bit more, and ridden a bit more aggressively in terms of taking Charlatan out of his game. Also, while it wasn't a track or path bias to the extent of maybe the recent Aqueduct track last week, where some lucky schmuck played various :1::1::1::1::1::1:s ticket combinations and is now TF-outta-NY and currently working on his tan and massage game, there is some debate as whether Charlatan had a slightly better path.

boiled down to the essence - we got to see the two stars battle, and on that day, Charlatan and Baffert proved best.

We got to see a great job by Gosden to prepare, and stick-work aside,- Egan did a fine job placing the willing winner Mishriff in striking position and excellent timing, as Charlatan still had to be run down to be defeated.

Didn't get to see the whole card, or of course partake in any of the race day events or pageantry this year, yet the feature was certainly a Grade 1 caliber event.

Up to the race, I think the Pegasus had actually been debated as a better race by many, but this was a far better race and event. Pegasus was great in the part of the post bias, and being able to key Independence Hall from post 3 at a great value margin, but the race itself was boring compared to the Saudi Cup.
(And I have great respect for the Pegasus Day series and all who put on that fine event).

[castaway01]

He made 500k, love to own him. :)

What you should love are the Saudis with $20 million to throw around on a horse race.

[Spalding No!]

Tacitus moving on to the Dubai World Cup for some reason despite Mott's forlorn comments about his performance (high strung in the paddock, faded badly, not what he wanted to see).

I wonder if Juddmonte is looking to unload the horse. Not sure if he still operates out of Dubai anymore but in previous years South African trainer Michael DeKock made a career out of rejuvenating castoffs from the major international racing operations.

Personally, I'll settle for them just selling Tacitus's blinkers...

[elhelmete]

He made 500k, love to own him. :)

On one level...and a BIG level LOL...I agree with you 100%.

But I'll relate a story.

When I dabbled in partnership ownership we had a really nice filly that showed a lot of talent on the turf, we got her after she won a 1st level allowance and then she won again for us at more or less the same level (I think it was a SA or N2X).

Then for reasons both intentional and unintentional she never won again, but always collected a check. She was generally placed above her head (not always intentional) and had a short span of a nagging injury. But she paid for herself and then some. Sold at auction for a decent sum.

Within roughly the same timespan we had a hardknocker who won for us at $10K, $12.5, and then $20k in the span of 5 races.

I know which horse was good for my wallet but also which one was good for my heart.

[taxicab]

And then there's Sleepy Eyes Todd.
The 5yo horse cost a whopping 9k,is a Grade 2 winner(little bit of breeding in the future).........and picked up a million bucks for yesterday's effort.
His updated lifetime earnings:
$1,889,825.
I'll guess he pads his bankroll @ the WC in Dubai 5 weeks from now.
Not too shabby for the small time connections.

[cj]

And then there's Sleepy Eyes Todd.
The 5yo horse cost a whopping 9k,is a Grade 2 winner(little bit of breeding in the future).........and picked up a million bucks for yesterday's effort.
His updated lifetime earnings:
$1,889,825.
I'll guess he pads his bankroll @ the WC in Dubai 5 weeks from now.
Not too shabby for the small time connections.

Has won all over the place too, really cool horse, one of my favorites in training. He's won twice here at Remington, twice at Canterbury, and also Charles Town, Fonner, Gulfstream, and Keeneland.

[dilanesp]

Has won all over the place too, really cool horse, one of my favorites in training. He's won twice here at Remington, twice at Canterbury, and also Charles Town, Fonner, Gulfstream, and Keeneland.

I've always been a fan of horses like Lost Code and Proper Reality who win a bunch of races at the minor tracks. Sometimes they turn out to be pretty good, in the same way that sometimes a football draft choice from a small college makes the jump to the NFL.

Sleepy Eyes Todd is, indeed, a fun horse.

[classhandicapper]

Personally, I'll settle for them just selling Tacitus's blinkers...

IMO, that's the right move.

I don't mean this to be insulting to a very good horse, but when he's in the game early or he's forced to make a big move into contention, run against the grain of the track, gets off a little bad etc. he doesn't have the reserves to finish well against top horses. At this stage he's the functional equivalent of a cheap speed horse that can run big if he gets a loose lead in a weak field or a bias in his favor but wilts under pressure. The way you win with a horse like that is to drop him in class so he'll get a softer trip and be up against weaker horses.

I'm fairly sure what they are trying to do is finally get a Grade 1 win out of him, but imo they should be searching for softer Grade 1s outside of NY and also not running in these elite Grade 1s he often finds himself in. They should target races like the Clark or some of the CA Grade 1s that have been weak in recent years and run late.

If it's just about the purse money in these super big races, take him back and make a late run like he did in the BC Classic and try to get 3rd or 4th and pray the race just happens to collapse.

[BarchCapper]

Has won all over the place too, really cool horse, one of my favorites in training. He's won twice here at Remington, twice at Canterbury, and also Charles Town, Fonner, Gulfstream, and Keeneland.

The Swiss Skydiver of the male gender in 2020!

(Although it's hard for Swissie to top the win at Fonner in the Bossellman Pump & Pantry/Gus Fonner Stakes!!!!!!)

[dilanesp]

The Swiss Skydiver of the male gender in 2020!

(Although it's hard for Swissie to top the win at Fonner in the Bossellman Pump & Pantry/Gus Fonner Stakes!!!!!!)

I still think the Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup race is the biggest prize in the sport.

[Robert Fischer]

Tacitus' Full brother "Maximus Aurelius " races tomorrow for Mott, Juddmonte. First time starter, Race 6, Churchill :coffee:

[dilanesp]

Tacitus' Full brother "Maximus Aurelius " races tomorrow for Mott, Juddmonte. First time starter, Race 6, Churchill :coffee:

Will he be an underlay?

[Robert Fischer]

Will he be an underlay?

he's the :4:. 5-1 morning line.

At a glance the :3: and maybe :1: will take some money, but who knows :) could take some fan money if word gets out.

Has some decent works from the end of 2020 on video, and good recent works (seeing on paper times) since April or so.

Good size, high knee action... Looked decent. Fun to see how he does

[dilanesp]

His long awaited return to the races!!!!

He's up against Knicks Go. Seems like a very tough assignment. (Of course, Tacitus is the kind of horse who can make any assignment tough. :) )

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/top-rated-knicks-go-leads-field-of-six-in-saturdays-lukas-classic/

[Robert Fischer]

His long awaited return to the races!!!!

He's up against Knicks Go. Seems like a very tough assignment. (Of course, Tacitus is the kind of horse who can make any assignment tough. :) )

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/top-rated-knicks-go-leads-field-of-six-in-saturdays-lukas-classic/

very cool

[classhandicapper]

I remember reading he had a minor injury. That's probably why he's coming back so late in the year. He started working regularly in July and early August but then it seems he skipped a month before working twice.

[dilanesp]

4th...

[The Arbiter]

Tacitus now one of the 'other' horses in a paid workout race. About time to hang it up?

[dilanesp]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Raylemoine69/status/1513601677382897677

[usfgeology]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Raylemoine69/status/1513601677382897677

Tweet has since been deleted. Care to summarize?

[the little guy]

Tweet has since been deleted. Care to summarize?

Yeah, Dilan, why don't you give us a detailed description of the pathetic Tweet you posted on the board.

[dilanesp]

Yeah, Dilan, why don't you give us a detailed description of the pathetic Tweet you posted on the board.

He was enjoying his retirement. I fundamentally don't understand why you are making an issue of this.

[the little guy]

He was enjoying his retirement. I fundamentally don't understand why you are making an issue of this.

I'm all for freedom of choice, and everyone has the right to enjoy what they want as long as it doesn't hurt others.....however, putting up a tweet of two horses having sex, which others will unwittingly come across because you posted it here is not allowing that freedom of choice. It's imposing your choices on others.

It's troubling that you "fundamentally" don't understand that.

[dilanesp]

I'm all for freedom of choice, and everyone has the right to enjoy what they want as long as it doesn't hurt others.....however, putting up a tweet of two horses having sex, which others will unwittingly come across because you posted it here is not allowing that freedom of choice. It's imposing your choices on others.

It's troubling that you "fundamentally" don't understand that.

Are you like this in person?

[classhandicapper]

Look at the bright side, as least he's not a hanger in his new career. ;)

[dilanesp]

Look at the bright side, as least he's not a hanger in his new career. ;)

:)