NYRA: Saratoga Race Course’s Summer Season Will Likely Occur Without Fans

[Redboard]

"NYRA is seeking to resume live racing at Belmont Park in the absence of fans and we have prepared operating plans that follow the same model for Saratoga"
Patrick McKenna
NYRA’s Director of Communications

https://saratogaliving.com/nyra-saratoga-race-course-summer-without-fans/

Could we please keep this thread free from political and COVID-19 rants? Management has already shut down several Saratoga threads here because they went sideways, and you can't blame them.

It's OK to talk politicians, as long as they are directly involved. Ok to talk virus, as long as it's about the people involved. Not about Trump or immunologists or number of dead in Sweden, there's the Off-Topic for that.

Thank You

[dilanesp]

"NYRA is seeking to resume live racing at Belmont Park in the absence of fans and we have prepared operating plans that follow the same model for Saratoga"
Patrick McKenna
NYRA’s Director of Communications

https://saratogaliving.com/nyra-saratoga-race-course-summer-without-fans/

Could we please keep this thread free from political and COVID-19 rants? Management has already shut down several Saratoga threads here because they went sideways, and you can't blame them.

It's OK to talk politicians, as long as they are directly involved. Ok to talk virus, as long as it's about the people involved. Not about Trump or immunologists or number of dead in Sweden, there's the Off-Topic for that.

Thank You

It's pretty obvious that it is governmental officials, not NYRA's spokesperson, who will make the call here.

And hopefully, no matter what they are saying publicly, NYRA has a backup plan in place if they get told they can't open Saratoga.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's pretty obvious that it is governmental officials, not NYRA's spokesperson, who will make the call here.Is it? lul

Thanks for weighing in...your use of the word obvious is...interesting...given what you posted, is in itself, quite obvious.

BTW, the call will be made way before August ever rolls around. That's something else...obvious.

[classhandicapper]

Cuomo basically said what I've been saying all along. One of the biggest risks to racing at Saratoga is that it will bring in people from the virus hot spots to an area that is still relatively calm. That risks starting a brand new outbreak somewhere else. It makes no sense at all.

If you do it without fans and most of the horseman and backstretch workers remain on track, the risk is mitigated. But then you have to ask what is the point of shipping equipment, people, and horses to Saratoga and adding all that expense just for almost everyone to stay on track at Saratoga?

I'm not sure I buy the "brand" argument as enough to offset the incremental expense and risk as we've debated previously. IMO, the Travers, Alabama etc.. would handle just as much if run at Belmont instead. The better argument was probably that the turf course at Belmont can't handle an extended meet, but if they wind up running an abbreviated schedule at Belmont, maybe that won't even be a factor.

To me, this not an obvious call for Cuomo, government, or anyone else despite our own desires for normalcy. Not sure when they have to make a final decision, but I guess we'll see what the data looks like in 4-6 weeks. Maybe things will look much better. The data is clearly improving steadily in NYC. That's a plus.

[Publius]

I am looking forward to SPA 2020. Sadly due to unforeseen circumstances I did not attend the races at Saratoga in 2019. I did play from home and loved it.

The racing at Saratoga is much better than downstate where sadly I reside. Hoping NYRA a successful 2020 SPA meet and I definitely attend the races at SPA 2021!!!!!

[JustRalph]

I am looking forward to SPA 2020. Sadly due to unforeseen circumstances I did not attend the races at Saratoga in 2019. I did play from home and loved it.

The racing at Saratoga is much better than downstate where sadly I reside. Hoping NYRA a successful 2020 SPA meet and I definitely attend the races at SPA 2021!!!!!

Congrats! 4 posts in 10 years. You’re the anti-Tom

[burnsy]

At first I thought even if they opened that attendance would be down but in retrospect I was probably wrong. That's what's actually worrying them about opening to the public. If nothing else in the sports or gathering arena is open the track will become a Mecca for people starving to go out and have fun or get action. The sports arenas are closed, SPAC already has cancelled shows, casinos closed, Lake George and 6 flags may be closed. The owner of the Valley Cats died yesterday from Corona, so local minor league baseball at "The Joe" is in jeopardy. In other words if everything else is not open, and that's not looking good now, the track will not be open either. They may run without fans is the talk around here.

If this happens I wonder how many are gonna sneak peaks. Are locals here gonna congregate at the top of the stretch on Union Ave where you can see the turn? Guys with beers and lawn chairs getting chased away by cops and security? My plan is a tree stand in the back of Yaddo with my cooler, phone and binoculars. Cause keeping people away will become a pain in the ass for authorities. I'm thinking.

[westernmassbob]

Regardless if Saratoga is open to the public people will still visit the town and area taking vacations or long weekends. It won’t nearly be as much with the current pandemic but for sure the streets of Toga will see increased summer traffic. I know several people who have summer property all over that area and half plan on going at some point. I find it puzzling that the way the government talks is that if Saratoga Racetrack does not open there will be zero additional tourism coming in from all over the country. Newsflash....Saratoga is a quaint town capable of surviving without racing. In any event I plan on going for a long weekend with or without racing but hope the horses come to town.

[PaceAdvantage]

Regardless if Saratoga is open to the public people will still visit the town and area taking vacations or long weekends. It won’t nearly be as much with the current pandemic but for sure the streets of Toga will see increased summer traffic. I know several people who have summer property all over that area and half plan on going at some point. I find it puzzling that the way the government talks is that if Saratoga Racetrack does not open there will be zero additional tourism coming in from all over the country. Newsflash....Saratoga is a quaint town capable of surviving without racing. In any event I plan on going for a long weekend with or without racing but hope the horses come to town.Wait until they run you out of town....they don't want any outside COVID coming in...interlopers beware.

[Redboard]

……………………………………………….
If this happens I wonder how many are gonna sneak peaks. Are locals here gonna congregate at the top of the stretch on Union Ave where you can see the turn? Guys with beers and lawn chairs getting chased away by cops and security? My plan is a tree stand in the back of Yaddo with my cooler, phone and binoculars. Cause keeping people away will become a pain in the ass for authorities. I'm thinking.

Yes, I’m sure there will be some people that try to congregate there. But it’s not that long of an area, maybe a hundred feet at most, they could probably have to hang a few tarps over it to close it up.

The picnic area would be a good space to open up; keeping each table so-many feet apart would be easy, I believe. Most bring their own food and beverages anyway. The hard part would be preventing people from gathering at the paddock and apron. Could the horses bypass the paddock and get to the track by taking another path? The entire apron could be closed off, I guess, and people be limited to the picnic area and watching the races on the TV screens.

Betting lines would be another area of concern. If the track were going to allow in some visitors, they would hate giving up the most lucrative part of the live crowd deal. But I don’t see a way to control the lines so I would think that people would have to bet via wifi.

[alhattab]

Yes, I’m sure there will be some people that try to congregate there. But it’s not that long of an area, maybe a hundred feet at most, they could probably have to hang a few tarps over it to close it up.

The picnic area would be a good space to open up; keeping each table so-many feet apart would be easy, I believe. Most bring their own food and beverages anyway. The hard part would be preventing people from gathering at the paddock and apron. Could the horses bypass the paddock and get to the track by taking another path? The entire apron could be closed off, I guess, and people be limited to the picnic area and watching the races on the TV screens.

Betting lines would be another area of concern. If the track were going to allow in some visitors, they would hate giving up the most lucrative part of the live crowd deal. But I don’t see a way to control the lines so I would think that people would have to bet via wifi.

I think it's a great opportunity to get people to sign up for NYRA Bets. I don't know what exactly NYRA did before to convert cash players to account players in terms of incentives and what-not, but the circumstances force the issue. No cash bets. Just have to find a way to allow people to withdraw.

[dilanesp]

Even if NYRA required wi-fi betting, I think you folks are vastly underestimating the challenges that social distancing would pose to any scheme to open a racetrack to fans. How about the lines to the restroom? The concession stands? How about the demarcation of areas of where people can sit versus where they have to walk? How will they determine who could sit together?

And above all, how about the television monitors? At every track I have ever been to in my life, Saratoga included, patrons crowd around the television monitors to watch races and replays. You basically have to in order to be able to watch the race. It would seem basically impossible to socially distance at the TV's.

[Clocker]

At every track I have ever been to in my life, Saratoga included, patrons crowd around the television monitors to watch races.
The same races that are going on live right behind them.:rolleyes:

[alhattab]

Even if NYRA required wi-fi betting, I think you folks are vastly underestimating the challenges that social distancing would pose to any scheme to open a racetrack to fans. How about the lines to the restroom? The concession stands? How about the demarcation of areas of where people can sit versus where they have to walk? How will they determine who could sit together?

And above all, how about the television monitors? At every track I have ever been to in my life, Saratoga included, patrons crowd around the television monitors to watch races and replays. You basically have to in order to be able to watch the race. It would seem basically impossible to socially distance at the TV's.

They would have to turn off the small screen TVs and use only the big screens. Saratoga has a bunch of them in the backyard. Would require limiting attendance, monitoring choke points and most importantly relying on people to follow appropriate behaviors whatever they may be. I don't think it's easy but I think it can be done at any decent-sized venue (CD, Bel, Sar, Mth, SA would all be in that category in my view).

[Clocker]

Would require limiting attendance


By what criteria? You'd have a mass of unhappy ex-fans if you did that.

[lex]

Since Cuomo is unlikely to allow fans I'm not sure why Contessa's point wouldn't be one of the most important to the discussion. For smaller outfits who haven't raced in two months how will the move hit them financially? We're almost to the point of super trainers only. Does this seal that? And does NYRA really want to spend the money for the move?

[alhattab]

By what criteria? You'd have a mass of unhappy ex-fans if you did that.

Probably won't be up to the tracks, it will be driven by the state. That would give the tracks cover. Then you sell tickets in advance so no false/unmet expectations. What is the number? I don't know but would take size of facility and availability of open areas/spaces I suppose.

[Clocker]

Probably won't be up to the tracks, it will be driven by the state. That would give the tracks cover. Then you sell tickets in advance so no false/unmet expectations. What is the number? I don't know but would take size of facility and availability of open areas/spaces I suppose.


I wasn't talking about the number, I was talking about who gets the tickets. What criteria for that? Random drawing? That means instant black market for resold tickets, and resellers entering the drawings hundreds of times. And thousands of irate fans who didn't get in.

[alhattab]

I wasn't talking about the number, I was talking about who gets the tickets. What criteria for that? Random drawing? That means instant black market for resold tickets, and resellers entering the drawings hundreds of times. And thousands of irate fans who didn't get in.

Sell them on Ticketmaster and then people can go to secondary market and buy if you couldn’t get the box office sale or decide later you want to attend.

[Clocker]

Sell them on Ticketmaster and then people can go to secondary market and buy if you couldn’t get the box office sale or decide later you want to attend.
A good way to alienate your track's long-time fan base.

[alhattab]

A good way to alienate your track's long-time fan base.

What do you think they should do? Assuming they would have to limit attendance. Maybe go to last years season subscribers first. Go to NYRA bets members with most on-track handle last year. Maybe limit # of days one could buy tix and max number of days one could buy. There’s many ways one could do it I suppose. If choice is no fans or limited fans I think they’d go with limited fans and figure out how to beat accommodate those NYRA wishes to accommodate based on its objectives.

[Redboard]

They would have to turn off the small screen TVs and use only the big screens. Saratoga has a bunch of them in the backyard. Would require limiting attendance, monitoring choke points and most importantly relying on people to follow appropriate behaviors whatever they may be. I don't think it's easy but I think it can be done at any decent-sized venue (CD, Bel, Sar, Mth, SA would all be in that category in my view).

If I were NYRA, this is what I would do.

First of all, you must be a NYRA bet member to be able to attend the track and the only way you can bet when you are at the track is via WiFi.

All concessions, betting windows, bars, stands, including the clubhouse/grandstand would be closed. The only thing open would be the restrooms. You will be essentially turning Saratoga race track into a state park with around 500 picnic tables positioned around the entire grounds including the track apron and backyard. Those in the backyard will be positioned to be able to watch the races on one of the tv monitors. There will be some room on the track apron to watch the race with distancing, if you want, but many people normally watch the races on the Tv monitors anyway.

Charge $1000 for the daily use of a picnic table, which includes admission for two. There will be a limit of two at each picnic table. You might say that's a lot money, but here's the incentive. Every time you attend, $500 is a credit which you can use next year to buy SPA tickets for 2021(when everything's back to normal). $100 will go into your normal NYRA bet account, which you use for betting. So you are essentially paying $400 for two people to attend, that's not bad considering that there's absolutely nothing else to do in the area, or perhaps country.

Of course you'll have to bring your own food and drink, which is what people normally do for those who sit at the picnic tables.

This idea of paying for future benefits I got from the cruise industry. Up until two weeks ago, you were able to book a cruise for July and August, when the cruise companies knew damn well that they wouldn't be operating in those months. So after people signed up and paid their deposit, the cruise line cancelled the cruises, and , you guessed it, they didn't refund any money but gave the people credit for future cruises.

[Tom]

How much to use the restrooms? :rolleyes:
And do you cover up every other urinal?

I think that would anger many more fans than it would placate.

[alhattab]

If I were NYRA, this is what I would do.

First of all, you must be a NYRA bet member to be able to attend the track and the only way you can bet when you are at the track is via WiFi.

All concessions, betting windows, bars, stands, including the clubhouse/grandstand would be closed. The only thing open would be the restrooms. You will be essentially turning Saratoga race track into a state park with around 500 picnic tables positioned around the entire grounds including the track apron and backyard. Those in the backyard will be positioned to be able to watch the races on one of the tv monitors. There will be some room on the track apron to watch the race with distancing, if you want, but many people normally watch the races on the Tv monitors anyway.

Charge $1000 for the daily use of a picnic table, which includes admission for two. There will be a limit of two at each picnic table. You might say that's a lot money, but here's the incentive. Every time you attend, $500 is a credit which you can use next year to buy SPA tickets for 2021(when everything's back to normal). $100 will go into your normal NYRA bet account, which you use for betting. So you are essentially paying $400 for two people to attend, that's not bad considering that there's absolutely nothing else to do in the area, or perhaps country.

Of course you'll have to bring your own food and drink, which is what people normally do for those who sit at the picnic tables.

This idea of paying for future benefits I got from the cruise industry. Up until two weeks ago, you were able to book a cruise for July and August, when the cruise companies knew damn well that they wouldn't be operating in those months. So after people signed up and paid their deposit, the cruise line cancelled the cruises, and , you guessed it, they didn't refund any money but gave the people credit for future cruises.

If it were up to me I would open up more. No reason why you can't open restaurants and concessions. Order on an app and pick up contactless + you have to wear a mask when you're walking around. Restaurants seat at every x table to keep distance, servers wear masks. Bars are another matter- I don't see opening up the paddock bar for example. Seating- x number of people in a section. No more than 4 together then a gap of say 4 and every x row. Have to wear a mask if walking around. Better off opening more of the facility. I wouldn't juice people as much as you suggest- seems like one is taking advantage of the situation by asking people to fork over a grand to sit in the Spa backyard and pay a year in advance for 2021- but it may have the benefit of preventing gouging at the secondary market.

[Clocker]

I think that would anger many more fans than it would placate.


I agree. Today, Joe Sixpack is in the same boat as everyone else. He can't go to the track because of the virus, just like everybody else. If Richie Richguy can go to the track and he can't because of big bucks, he is going to resent it. It's a change in the order of things, and he is now being discriminated against.

[lamboguy]

A good way to alienate your track's long-time fan base.that's not a good way to accomplish that, its a spectacular one.

[AndyC]

What do you think they should do? Assuming they would have to limit attendance. Maybe go to last years season subscribers first. Go to NYRA bets members with most on-track handle last year. Maybe limit # of days one could buy tix and max number of days one could buy. There’s many ways one could do it I suppose. If choice is no fans or limited fans I think they’d go with limited fans and figure out how to beat accommodate those NYRA wishes to accommodate based on its objectives.

This isn't rocket science. If I ran a track the season ticket holders would have priority for tickets and the ones who've had tickets the longest would have the highest priority. Any remaining seats could be handled via a lottery.

[alhattab]

This isn't rocket science. If I ran a track the season ticket holders would have priority for tickets and the ones who've had tickets the longest would have the highest priority. Any remaining seats could be handled via a lottery.

Agree. Assuming there is enough demand, no matter how you do it you run the risk of alienating some people because they get locked out. They don't fit priority access criteria tickets or they aren't successful otherwise getting tickets through a lottery, on-line sales, etc. Demand overwhelming limited supply happens all the time in the entertainment business and sometimes the loyal customers, die-hard fans, etc. cannot get tickets to or get priced out of events they would like to attend.

[AndyC]

Agree. Assuming there is enough demand, no matter how you do it you run the risk of alienating some people because they get locked out. They don't fit priority access criteria tickets or they aren't successful otherwise getting tickets through a lottery, on-line sales, etc. Demand overwhelming limited supply happens all the time in the entertainment business and sometimes the loyal customers, die-hard fans, etc. cannot get tickets to or get priced out of events they would like to attend.

People understand priority, if the priority is based on something that makes sense. A person with less years as a season ticket holder would certainly understand losing out to someone with more years as a season ticket holder. What they wouldn't understand is something like city council members being able to jump in line ahead of others.

[Redboard]

If it were up to me I would open up more. No reason why you can't open restaurants and concessions. Order on an app and pick up contactless + you have to wear a mask when you're walking around. Restaurants seat at every x table to keep distance, servers wear masks. Bars are another matter- I don't see opening up the paddock bar for example. Seating- x number of people in a section. No more than 4 together then a gap of say 4 and every x row. Have to wear a mask if walking around. Better off opening more of the facility. I wouldn't juice people as much as you suggest- seems like one is taking advantage of the situation by asking people to fork over a grand to sit in the Spa backyard and pay a year in advance for 2021- but it may have the benefit of preventing gouging at the secondary market………………Assuming there is enough demand, no matter how you do it you run the risk of alienating some people because they get locked out. They don't fit priority access criteria tickets or they aren't successful otherwise getting tickets through a lottery, on-line sales, etc. Demand overwhelming limited supply happens all the time in the entertainment business and sometimes the loyal customers, die-hard fans, etc. cannot get tickets to or get priced out of events they would like to attend.

The restaurants inside the track should be subject to the same rules as those in the town. As of now, none in the town are open for in dining, only takeout, but that will most likely change by the summer. To allow the track’s restaurants to do “take out,” and have a server carry an order to a picnic table, is an interesting idea, but would it be worth their while? For one, the crowd will be severely limited. I can’t see them allowing more than 1000 people. Two, most people sitting at the picnic tables prefer to bring in their own food and drink. Three, adding a server in the chain is another pathway to infection. Most catch the disease from someone on the front lines that deal with the general public — supermarket clerks, subway workers, health care workers, etc.

If your proposing opening up the grandstand/clubhouse to fans to watch the races, that’s not going to happen. No outdoor spectator sport is talking about playing in front of fans this summer. I’m talking about people sitting at picnic tables in front of a TV monitor(see attachment). Yes, that $1000 would be expensive but NYRA would have to severely limit the crowd, it wouldn’t be worth their while to charge regular general admission. The risk would far outweigh the reward for them. They may as well stay down at Belmont.

Sure, some of the long-term fans would be upset and you would alienate some, but I think many love Saratoga that they would understand that the track just can’t open it up to hordes of people. The governor/county health department wouldn’t allow it.

[Redboard]

How much to use the restrooms? :rolleyes:
And do you cover up every other urinal?
I think that would anger many more fans than it would placate.

They would have to place a "monitor person" in front of each restroom, with six-foot markers for the lines, and only allow one patron at a time. There are plenty of restrooms. They could open them all, even on the upper floors.

[king kong]

Mask for entrance and 3 foot distance. Enter at your own risk!:headbanger:

[Racetrack Playa]

ML
Spatoga 2020 meet. 332-1
:rip:

[PaceAdvantage]

ML
Spatoga 2020 meet. 332-1
:rip:Yup, all these other tracks are opening up this month...some have even been racing throughout the lockdowns...but Saratoga, scheduled to open 2+ months from now, has zero shot...

LOL

[the little guy]

Yup, all these other tracks are opening up this month...some have even been racing throughout the lockdowns...but Saratoga, scheduled to open 2+ months from now, has zero shot...

LOL

How much do you think I can bet on his ML?

[Racetrack Playa]

How much do you think I can bet on his ML?
I'd bet it all if I were you.



:( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPO1_Qz4mmA

[Al Gobbi]

Is it economically viable to run a race meet at Saratoga behind closed doors?

[dilanesp]

Is it economically viable to run a race meet at Saratoga behind closed doors?

NYRA thinks it is more viable than holding the same meet at Belmont, at least if we are going to take their public statements at face value.

Several of us suspect NYRA is wrong about this, so make of it what you will.

[alhattab]

The restaurants inside the track should be subject to the same rules as those in the town. As of now, none in the town are open for in dining, only takeout, but that will most likely change by the summer. To allow the track’s restaurants to do “take out,” and have a server carry an order to a picnic table, is an interesting idea, but would it be worth their while? For one, the crowd will be severely limited. I can’t see them allowing more than 1000 people. Two, most people sitting at the picnic tables prefer to bring in their own food and drink. Three, adding a server in the chain is another pathway to infection. Most catch the disease from someone on the front lines that deal with the general public — supermarket clerks, subway workers, health care workers, etc.

If your proposing opening up the grandstand/clubhouse to fans to watch the races, that’s not going to happen. No outdoor spectator sport is talking about playing in front of fans this summer. I’m talking about people sitting at picnic tables in front of a TV monitor(see attachment). Yes, that $1000 would be expensive but NYRA would have to severely limit the crowd, it wouldn’t be worth their while to charge regular general admission. The risk would far outweigh the reward for them. They may as well stay down at Belmont.

Sure, some of the long-term fans would be upset and you would alienate some, but I think many love Saratoga that they would understand that the track just can’t open it up to hordes of people. The governor/county health department wouldn’t allow it.

I say open it up for 10,000/day. Can easily do that and maintain reasonable precautions. Open the entire building. I've been there on some very quiet days- e.g., Monday after the Travers- when there were say 15,000 people there and the place feels empty. Bring in the Johnny on the Spots to minimize restroom traffic. For food, if by then can't open up for table service then set it up like restaurants are today- order, someone brings stuff out to a table w/your name on a box and you pick it up for those who don't feel like bringing in food and drink. For the apron, sell tickets specific for that and limit to some safe number- say 500. Put another 500+ in the restaurants (restaurant capacity is nearly 4,000). Put another 500-1,000 in the Grandstand. Everyone else in the backyard. Small groups in the luxury venues.

Ultimately won't be up to NYRA- Commandant Cuomo will dictate terms and yes that gives cover for NYRA for those that are angry about the limitations- but the more I think about it the more it seems like a layup to have 10,000 in that facility.

[dilanesp]

There is literally no way anyone is opening events for 10,000 people this summer.

I am not sure people realize how much space 10,000 prople, 6 feet apart, take up.

[PaceAdvantage]

LOL

You get points for tenacity and stubbornness.

[dilanesp]

LOL

You get points for tenacity and stubbornness.

Do YOU know how much space 10,000 people six feet apart need?

[Fred Mertz]

Do YOU know how much space 10,000 people six feet apart need?

Wives and husbands can't sit together?

I went to church on Sunday and they let us inside. It is a small congregation of less than 20 including preacher and family of 5.

Married ones sat together, the rest of us kept our distance. It was nice.

You have to trust adults to act like adults. Like I told a friend, they could open everything tomorrow, but people will do what they think best. Meaning there won't be 100 percent participation because folks will act in a manner that their minds and instincts tell them. Dang, I'm dying for a beer in the tavern and I'll continue to keep my distance for a good while.

[alhattab]

There is literally no way anyone is opening events for 10,000 people this summer.

I am not sure people realize how much space 10,000 prople, 6 feet apart, take up.

You're probably right. Not necessarily for good reasons, but you're probably right (see pics from Central Park May 2 weekend- they "opened up" Central Park for people not sure why the Spa w/10,000 people would be much different)

I did wonder about your question. I do think it's more like groups of say 4 being 6 feet apart. I'm no engineer, but I think in a 72 sq ft- a 12 by 6- box you would fit 24 people- 6 groups of 4. To fit 10,000 stationary people, you would need 417 such boxes, or about 30,000 sq. ft.

I don't know how big the backyard is, but according to the NYRA site the building floor space is 385,000 sq feet. Let's assume, for arguments sake, the backyard is 1/3 that or about 125,000 sq ft (The backyard seems bigger than the grandstand footprint, but the grandstand has 2-3 stories) and the space people can actually fit in the building is 1/2 the building size, or about 190,000 sq ft. Add in say 50,000 sq ft for the apron. Plenty of space. Now you have to allot for choke points, queuing at admissions, taking a piss, etc., but even if you go with 1/10th of the required size for a stationary group you'd have plenty of space. Throw in a mask requirement for moving around you have even more.

Is this realistic? Probably not, if for no other reason than opening an attraction brings in out of towners, etc (there was a term of art the Commandant Cuomo used for this but I forget what it was). But it is doable.

Let's see how many people in Central Park this weekend got sick or got others sick. Would be pretty nice to know...

[dilanesp]

Plus bear in mind a lot of space isn't usable, and many folks will be in groups of 2 or 1.

[drib]

LOL

You get points for tenacity and stubbornness.

How about common sense? As of yesterday, the county of Saratoga has had a total 0f 364 cases (11 currently hospitalized); the town of Saratoga Springs (population 28k) has had 40. There have been 14 viral deaths in the county (population 230k). Elmont (population 33k), home to Belmont Park, reports a count of 1138. Does anyone think that in just 2 months time, Cuomo will sanction a 5,000 person migration up to the Spa?....and that is assuming no fans allowed. Incidentally, these #'s are probably one reason that there is no date for the opening of Oklahoma training track. The wise medical decision is to confine the virus downstate.

[PaceAdvantage]

With Cuomo, anything is possible:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-mandates-nursing-homes-take-covid-19-patients-discharged-from-hospitals-11585228215

How's that for common sense?

[Tom]

Does the city of Saratoga even WANT them to open is they do nothing in the crowds of people?

Are they willing to take all of the risk and a fraction of the $$$ windfall? Anyone heard their thoughts?

[classhandicapper]

Does the city of Saratoga even WANT them to open is they do nothing in the crowds of people?

Are they willing to take all of the risk and a fraction of the $$$ windfall? Anyone heard their thoughts?

That's a very good question.

You'd be surprised, but a lot of people in Saratoga don't like the racing. They leave. It's the local business people that like it. But if there are no customers, who needs it?

[drib]

With Cuomo, anything is possible:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-mandates-nursing-homes-take-covid-19-patients-discharged-from-hospitals-11585228215

How's that for common sense?

Classic case of deflection. In late March, Cuomo, and NY health officials were petrified that the hospitals would be completely overwhelmed by viral patients, thus the edict about putting stable, recovering viral patients in nursing homes actually made some sense. Where would u have them go if u were worried about an onslaught of new, acutely ill patients? I am not defending Cuomo anyway, just listening to what he has been saying. Remember, a decision to open Saratoga (even w/o any fans) is completely optional. There is no compelling need to unleash the downstate viral hordes in the Spa.

[PaceAdvantage]

Classic case of deflection.Was it? You brought up Cuomo and common sense.

[Magician]

saratoga can't allow fans for one reason. they are not equipped to deal with an outbreak in that part of new york. saratoga will not open to fans until there is a vaccine. an outbreak in hotels, restaurants, and crowds like at a racetrack are the nightmare scenario when you combine it with the very limited hospital beds in the area.

[westernmassbob]

saratoga can't allow fans for one reason. they are not equipped to deal with an outbreak in that part of new york. saratoga will not open to fans until there is a vaccine. an outbreak in hotels, restaurants, and crowds like at a racetrack are the nightmare scenario when you combine it with the very limited hospital beds in the area.

Saratoga already has spring/summer home residents moving back in as of today. I know two family friends that have checked in this past week from Florida. The town will still see tourists even if no live viewing at the track. I still say Toga can do it with attendance if they limit ticket sales per day sold in advance.

[Clocker]

saratoga can't allow fans for one reason. they are not equipped to deal with an outbreak in that part of new york. saratoga will not open to fans until there is a vaccine. an outbreak in hotels, restaurants, and crowds like at a racetrack are the nightmare scenario when you combine it with the very limited hospital beds in the area.


Fans aside, is the town even equipped to handle the horse people if a number of them get sick? Those people are coming in from all over the country, and no way of telling what they have been exposed to.

[AndyC]

Classic case of deflection. In late March, Cuomo, and NY health officials were petrified that the hospitals would be completely overwhelmed by viral patients, thus the edict about putting stable, recovering viral patients in nursing homes actually made some sense. Where would u have them go if u were worried about an onslaught of new, acutely ill patients? I am not defending Cuomo anyway, just listening to what he has been saying. Remember, a decision to open Saratoga (even w/o any fans) is completely optional. There is no compelling need to unleash the downstate viral hordes in the Spa.

Viral patients in nursing homes made sense? It was well known at that time that elderly people with underlying conditions were by far the most vulnerable. The people running the nursing homes certainly didn't think it was a good idea.

Who are these viral hordes waiting to be unleashed? The data from NYC shows that they may be down to close to zero by mid May.

[Magician]

Fans aside, is the town even equipped to handle the horse people if a number of them get sick? Those people are coming in from all over the country, and no way of telling what they have been exposed to.

yes, saratoga and the albany area could easily handle the "horse people" that are needed to have a meet. it is the influx of everyone else at hotels, restaurants, and at the track that could overwhelm the system.

one of most illogical things going on in america right now is not racing at belmont park. cuomo seems unable to grasp the fact that horses go to the track everyday and that workers have to take care of horses whether they are racing or just training in the morning. there is no logical reason to not race. you just can't allow fans. it is quite amazing that the governor and his people are not capable of grasping such a simple concept. the only thing i can think of is that it is bad optics having a large number of people dying in the city and other people racing horses a few miles away.

[drib]

Viral patients in nursing homes made sense? It was well known at that time that elderly people with underlying conditions were by far the most vulnerable. The people running the nursing homes certainly didn't think it was a good idea.

Who are these viral hordes waiting to be unleashed? The data from NYC shows that they may be down to close to zero by mid May.

Not looking for another viral thread, but the notion that "NYC...may be down close to zero by mid May" is, sadly, laughable....of course, I don't know whether you are talking about new cases (today NYC added 1223; the state 2239; or deaths (198-230). Yes the curve is slowly improving, but that is combined with a continued rigorous lockdown.

[dilanesp]

yes, saratoga and the albany area could easily handle the "horse people" that are needed to have a meet. it is the influx of everyone else at hotels, restaurants, and at the track that could overwhelm the system.

one of most illogical things going on in america right now is not racing at belmont park. cuomo seems unable to grasp the fact that horses go to the track everyday and that workers have to take care of horses whether they are racing or just training in the morning. there is no logical reason to not race. you just can't allow fans. it is quite amazing that the governor and his people are not capable of grasping such a simple concept. the only thing i can think of is that it is bad optics having a large number of people dying in the city and other people racing horses a few miles away.

I think the fact that NYRA hasn''t convinced the state government to let them race without spectators at Belmont is incredibly important and, indeed, by far the most important data point here. The people who would need to approve any grandiose plans clearly are extremely skeptical about even letting NYRA putting even baby steps forward.

This discussion is sort of like asking Jim Mora about the playoffs when he's concerned whether his team can win a game.

[alhattab]

yes, saratoga and the albany area could easily handle the "horse people" that are needed to have a meet. it is the influx of everyone else at hotels, restaurants, and at the track that could overwhelm the system.

one of most illogical things going on in america right now is not racing at belmont park. cuomo seems unable to grasp the fact that horses go to the track everyday and that workers have to take care of horses whether they are racing or just training in the morning. there is no logical reason to not race. you just can't allow fans. it is quite amazing that the governor and his people are not capable of grasping such a simple concept. the only thing i can think of is that it is bad optics having a large number of people dying in the city and other people racing horses a few miles away.

I think you hit the nail on the head here, especially since the horses and people are already there. They should be racing and one cannot come up with a reasonable explanation otherwise. Belmont Park should be open to spectators, too. Golf is another one- makes zero sense- unless you think of the optic of "allowing" the "privileged" to enjoy something that many others cannot. Same with parks- something generally more available to people out in the sticks than people in cities (or even in NY, more available to wealthy Manhattanites than less affluent sections of Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx). NJ General Secretary Murphy wouldn't allow either golf or parks open until this past weekend. In terms of racing, Monmouth Park is a different story from Belmont in that the backstretch is closed and every person and horse on the grounds will likely come from many places. Creating density isn't a good thing these days. Saying that, the backstretches have been generally safe save for a few unfortunate incidents, correct?

[classhandicapper]

one of most illogical things going on in america right now is not racing at belmont park. cuomo seems unable to grasp the fact that horses go to the track everyday and that workers have to take care of horses whether they are racing or just training in the morning. there is no logical reason to not race. you just can't allow fans. it is quite amazing that the governor and his people are not capable of grasping such a simple concept. the only thing i can think of is that it is bad optics having a large number of people dying in the city and other people racing horses a few miles away.

I co-sign on this 100%.

There are cost and health risk reasons to consider not moving everyone to Saratoga, but there is almost no reason for not running at Belmont now. The number of incremental people needed to actually put on the show is not huge and other tracks are already demonstrating it can be done safely. It's probably even easier at Belmont because it's so huge. It will be easier to maintain distance.

[Tom]

That's a very good question.

You'd be surprised, but a lot of people in Saratoga don't like the racing. They leave. It's the local business people that like it. But if there are no customers, who needs it?

I heard on ATR that people there are booking Future Bets on their houses.

Pay $2500 now and if they run you get it for that for whole meet. If they don't run, you lose it.

Kudos to Saratogans for their gambling spirit in the face of adversity! :headbanger:

[classhandicapper]

I heard on ATR that people there are booking Future Bets on their houses.

Pay $2500 now and if they run you get it for that for whole meet. If they don't run, you lose it.

Kudos to Saratogans for their gambling spirit in the face of adversity! :headbanger:

:lol:

OMG, what a town.

[dilanesp]

I co-sign on this 100%.

There are cost and health risk reasons to consider not moving everyone to Saratoga, but there is almost no reason for not running at Belmont now. The number of incremental people needed to actually put on the show is not huge and other tracks are already demonstrating it can be done safely. It's probably even easier at Belmont because it's so huge. It will be easier to maintain distance.

My hypothesis right now is that the officials in NY are especially skittish about allowing racing, even as compared to some other jurisdictions, both because of the high death toll in NYC and the fact that when they allowed it before, people in the racing community got the virus.

I don't have any insider knowledge here, but it's notable that on the one hand NYRA is putting out press releases and doing interviews, and on the other the state seems to be saying nothing but also not allowing them to open.

[classhandicapper]

My hypothesis right now is that the officials in NY are especially skittish about allowing racing, even as compared to some other jurisdictions, both because of the high death toll in NYC and the fact that when they allowed it before, people in the racing community got the virus.

I don't have any insider knowledge here, but it's notable that on the one hand NYRA is putting out press releases and doing interviews, and on the other the state seems to be saying nothing but also not allowing them to open.

I don't know this for a fact, but I think the positive cases had very little to do with the racing. People may make that connection, but it probably had more to do with people coming to and leaving Belmont for the work that is still ongoing anyway like training and care. Andy may know the facts on that, but I haven't been hearing anything bad or discouraging from my managing partner and he's in contact with our trainer constantly. Everyone I know still wants to race. We are shipping a horse we shipped to a farm to save money back to Belmont to resume training and get ready.

[dilanesp]

I don't know this for a fact, but I think the positive cases had very little to do with the racing. People may make that connection, but it probably had more to do with people coming to and leaving Belmont for the work that is still ongoing anyway like training and care. Andy may know the facts on that, but I haven't been hearing anything bad or discouraging from my managing partner and he's in contact with our trainer constantly. Everyone I know still wants to race. We are shipping a horse we shipped to a farm to save money back to Belmont to resume training and get ready.

We have a similar situation of radio silence from officials out here at Santa Anita. At this point I am not really believing statements from racetracks in this situation. A lot of them have not come to pass.

[drib]

I heard on ATR that people there are booking Future Bets on their houses.

Pay $2500 now and if they run you get it for that for whole meet. If they don't run, you lose it.

Kudos to Saratogans for their gambling spirit in the face of adversity! :headbanger:

Thx for the heads up on the discussion between Byck and Andy Beyer about the NYRA situation. They cover many of the points discussed on this board. Beyer seems to think that "Saratoga at Belmont" just won't draw the same betting $. Byck voices the unease among NY horsemen that still no indication when Belmont will be allowed to open. They both seemed resigned to the notion that there will be no fans allowed at Saratoga. Of interest, Byck (who lives upstate) says that he has heard that the Saratoga community does not want racing in their town if no attendance allowed. I guess those citizens lack the confidence of some on this board that the viral coast will be clear in the NY metro area. Sensibly, why run the risk of an imported viral explosion (remember studies have shown that just one spreader can infect a whole community)?

[AndyC]

Not looking for another viral thread, but the notion that "NYC...may be down close to zero by mid May" is, sadly, laughable....of course, I don't know whether you are talking about new cases (today NYC added 1223; the state 2239; or deaths (198-230). Yes the curve is slowly improving, but that is combined with a continued rigorous lockdown.

A death count of 198 would represent an increase of over 100% from May 2. I get my stats from the NYC dept. of Health website. I would be curious as to where you got yours.

[classhandicapper]

A death count of 198 would represent an increase of over 100% from May 2. I get my stats from the NYC dept. of Health website. I would be curious as to where you got yours.

Those death counts are always trailing and not up to date. They slowly get updated. So what looks like an extreme trend of improvement is actually partially just a delay in reporting. To be clear, the trend in NY and NYC is very positive, but not that positive.

[drib]

A death count of 198 would represent an increase of over 100% from May 2. I get my stats from the NYC dept. of Health website. I would be curious as to where you got yours.

The daily death counts are available in many places; heck, just listen to Cuomo news conferences (today he reported 231...same level as last 3 days). Here is a widely accepted website:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Several sources (mostly conservative) have been using Health Dept reports in an attempt to show that the viral threat is diminishing. They neglect to inform that these records only tally actual death certificates when received and there is a couple week lag from the real daily #'s. Here is a good discussion of the phenomena: https://undark.org/2020/04/11/covid-19-data-lag-deaths-new-york/ Here is a discussion about how Fox (I hate to get political, but this is fact, not opinion) is knowingly misusing data. Hey. i guess all's fair in the world of politics, but the Fox news audience is heavily skewed towards older people, just the ones most vulnerable to death by virus. These reports (and they never issue a correction) send a message minimizing the viral threat, and it is not a stretch to think lives are affected.

[PaceAdvantage]

I hate to get political

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHC1230OpOg

[drib]

Sorry, Here are corrected links:https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/04/fox-news-trump-allies-keep-searching-evidence-an-inflated-coronavirus-death-toll-all-wrong-places/


https://undark.org/2020/04/11/covid-19-data-lag-deaths-new-york/

[classhandicapper]

Thx for the heads up on the discussion between Byck and Andy Beyer about the NYRA situation. They cover many of the points discussed on this board. Beyer seems to think that "Saratoga at Belmont" just won't draw the same betting $.

No matter who is right, we'll never even come close to proving it because aside from the loss of on track handle at Saratoga, 10s of millions of people are now unemployed, millions more are getting reduced hours and pay, many people that still bet at OTBs, simulcast centers, or casinos around the country may not be able to bet at those locations and may not have an ADW account to bet, and we won't have nearly the same racing schedule to know how much extra handle is coming in because there are fewer tracks open.

There's no way to control for all those variables. It's one gigantic guess, which I why I keep focusing on incremental expenses and risks.

Those are certain. We know exactly how much it costs to move horses, trainers, families, backstretch workers, and other employees to Saratoga for that meet and we know the risk to the local community has to be higher even if we can't measure it.

Throw a dart at the board.

If I was trainer I probably wouldn't go. I think I'd rather stay at Belmont and ship locally to MTH (or somewhere else that might be open) for a single start if I had a horse ready and then pick up again at Belmont when they come back unless I had a top horse for a stake. People (including horsemen) go there for the racing environment, entertainment, spas, and vacation too. Why should they spend a lot of extra money to be semi locked down.

[dilanesp]

Thx for the heads up on the discussion between Byck and Andy Beyer about the NYRA situation. They cover many of the points discussed on this board. Beyer seems to think that "Saratoga at Belmont" just won't draw the same betting $. Byck voices the unease among NY horsemen that still no indication when Belmont will be allowed to open. They both seemed resigned to the notion that there will be no fans allowed at Saratoga. Of interest, Byck (who lives upstate) says that he has heard that the Saratoga community does not want racing in their town if no attendance allowed. I guess those citizens lack the confidence of some on this board that the viral coast will be clear in the NY metro area. Sensibly, why run the risk of an imported viral explosion (remember studies have shown that just one spreader can infect a whole community)?

I actually think Byk said something in that discussion that almost completely encapsulates horse racing's public relations problem on coronavirus.

He started ranting about how Saratoga Springs residents who apparently don't want to risk a meet without fans, saying they had no right to object to NYRA running up there, because without the New York Racing Association, that town would be nothing, just like it was back in the 1970's, and they ought to be grateful to horse racing.

I was listening to this and thinking "man, does this person, who has one of the more significant media platforms in the sport, even understand that this virus is killing people?". I mean sure, Saratoga Springs, under normal circumstances, ought to appreciate NYRA, just like Orlando ought to appreciate Disney and the Coachella Valley ought to appreciate the music festival.

But doesn't he understand how something like this plays? Saratoga Springs residents are concerned about their health in a situation where 19,000 people have died downstate, and a prominent racing broadcaster is saying, essentially, "suck it up buttercups, you should be thankful we even care about your podunk town, so you need to get over yourselves and take the risks".

I think in many ways this sort of rhetoric is the product of too many people minimizing this thing and saying it is no big deal. If we get to run our races, ANYWHERE, it is a product of health departments and politicians and local residents granting us an exception because they think we are responsible and that priority number 1 is protecting people's lives. That has to be our message.

But there's a lot of people marinating in this "people aren't dying anymore, let's get rid of the restrictions and start living normal lives again" rhetoric (Byck himself went through some of that earlier in the podcast) that they don't realize that there a lot of people out in the real world who are scared of this thing. ESPECIALLY in small towns in upstate New York that normally see a lot of visitors from what is currently Epidemic Central, New York City, during the summer.

[AndyC]

The daily death counts are available in many places; heck, just listen to Cuomo news conferences (today he reported 231...same level as last 3 days). Here is a widely accepted website:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Several sources (mostly conservative) have been using Health Dept reports in an attempt to show that the viral threat is diminishing. They neglect to inform that these records only tally actual death certificates when received and there is a couple week lag from the real daily #'s. Here is a good discussion of the phenomena: https://undark.org/2020/04/11/covid-19-data-lag-deaths-new-york/ Here is a discussion about how Fox (I hate to get political, but this is fact, not opinion) is knowingly misusing data. Hey. i guess all's fair in the world of politics, but the Fox news audience is heavily skewed towards older people, just the ones most vulnerable to death by virus. These reports (and they never issue a correction) send a message minimizing the viral threat, and it is not a stretch to think lives are affected.

I am well aware that there is a lag in some of the reporting. I check to see where the data has been updated everyday. I am not trying to make a political issue out of this. I read the article you recommended. Well written, valid points. Early on I was certainly sucked in by the first numbers posted.

Nevertheless, the virus is not infecting more people and not killing more people on a daily basis. The trajectory is down and down quickly.

[drib]

Let's bring this to a personal level. 78 year old Iconic Hall of Famer Bill Parcells is a well known resident of Saratoga, living a couple of miles from the track. He has a past history of significant heart disease. I have no idea what he thinks about the virus, but would anyone, like him, welcome an influx of, say, 5000 people from the world viral hotspot?

[drib]

"Nevertheless, the virus is not infecting more people and not killing more people on a daily basis. The trajectory is down and down quickly."

I assume you are just referring to the NY metro area b/c those #'s aside, the virus is growing everywhere else.
https://apnews.com/4450a59eb5276bc5cecc61613e797018

As noted many times, the drop in NY #'s features a once in lifetime total lockdown. Going forward, I guess how one feels about all this depends upon one's opinion of lockdown effectiveness. There is no need for us to debate this b/c when it comes to NY racing, the only opinion that counts is Cuomo plus advisors. Anyone listening to him has to realize that he thinks the lockdown has been key....take note for future discussions of Saratoga racing's fate.

[PaceAdvantage]

I was listening to this and thinking "man, does this person, who has one of the more significant media platforms in the sport, even understand that this virus is killing people?".No. He has no clue the virus is killing people. Absolutely none. Good thing you're here to tell him about it.

[Tom]

Let's bring this to a personal level. 78 year old Iconic Hall of Famer Bill Parcells is a well known resident of Saratoga, living a couple of miles from the track. He has a past history of significant heart disease. I have no idea what he thinks about the virus, but would anyone, like him, welcome an influx of, say, 5000 people from the world viral hotspot?

Let's not.
Because you have no idea what he thinks.
We have old people with risk factors EVERYWHERE.
Do we stop the world until there are no COVID cases left?

[AndyC]

"Nevertheless, the virus is not infecting more people and not killing more people on a daily basis. The trajectory is down and down quickly."

I assume you are just referring to the NY metro area b/c those #'s aside, the virus is growing everywhere else.
https://apnews.com/4450a59eb5276bc5cecc61613e797018

As noted many times, the drop in NY #'s features a once in lifetime total lockdown. Going forward, I guess how one feels about all this depends upon one's opinion of lockdown effectiveness. There is no need for us to debate this b/c when it comes to NY racing, the only opinion that counts is Cuomo plus advisors. Anyone listening to him has to realize that he thinks the lockdown has been key....take note for future discussions of Saratoga racing's fate.

Yes, I was only referring to NYC.

Was he not questioning the lockdown when talking about the new infections and how the majority of them were happening to people locked down in their homes?

[dilanesp]

No. He has no clue the virus is killing people. Absolutely none. Good thing you're here to tell him about it.

Your sarcasm aside, he was talking about the virus in a manner that suggests that he certainly hasn't internalized that the virus has killed 19,000 people in NYC and that folks in Saratoga Springs might legitimately be scared of it.

[Fred Mertz]

Your sarcasm aside, he was talking about the virus in a manner that suggests that he certainly hasn't internalized that the virus has killed 19,000 people in NYC and that folks in Saratoga Springs might legitimately be scared of it.

First off, the numbers are likely inflated. Secondly, NYC and state are the epicenter for this CV19 and have been identified as the source for spread of it throughout the country, though no fault of their own, of course. Finally, that governor and mayor qualify as Moe and Larry in my book.

I just called off a trip I was planning to the Lake George/Saratoga region in late July with one of my former college roommates and his wife. I can see the writing on the wall and it ticks me off to stand down and be cautious, but it's the right thing to do.

[classhandicapper]

Your sarcasm aside, he was talking about the virus in a manner that suggests that he certainly hasn't internalized that the virus has killed 19,000 people in NYC and that folks in Saratoga Springs might legitimately be scared of it.

I'm over the top risk averse. So I'm probably a bad judge, but I also thought he was a bit insensitive to the fact that some people in Saratoga might be legitimately scared to let a lot of NYC people into the area. He's probably not worried so he can't relate, but I think even Beyer was a little taken aback. I think he quietly said something like "it's a tough call". It was a small blind spot. Not the end of the world.

[PaceAdvantage]

Maybe he's like me.

Yes, people are dying from COVID-19.

But all perspective should not be lost because of this fact.

[drib]

Yes, I was only referring to NYC.

Was he not questioning the lockdown when talking about the new infections and how the majority of them were happening to people locked down in their homes?

Trouble comes when non-scientist politicians have to deal with terms like "anecdotal" (see hydochloroquine, where the latest, best study shows no benefit: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2012410 ), and "aberrational", when one preliminary, non peer reviewed report should not change anything. Listening to Cuomo, I doubt he has lost any faith in his lockdown approach. This one report is balanced by world wide experiences showing that lockdowns are associated with decreased viral spread. Again, I lack any desire to debate the correct approach b/c the Saratoga decision is totally in Cuomo hands.

[classhandicapper]

IMO, that lockdown data is probably misleading.

Most transmissions appear to occur with close and consistent contact (sneezes and coughs). Since most homes have multiple people in it, if one family member gets infected, the probability that multiple members will get infected is probably greater than if I happen to spend a lot of time outside but behave responsibly.

People that are getting infected while on lock down are not getting it because it blew in through the window. They are getting it from someone else in that house that was not locked down, that caught it outside the home, and brought it home to their family.

[classhandicapper]

Maybe he's like me.

Yes, people are dying from COVID-19.

But all perspective should not be lost because of this fact.

I hear you.

Like I said, I am very risk averse. I am sure that if I lived in Saratoga I would not want people like me coming from Queens to Saratoga. :lol:

[westernmassbob]

That's a very good question.

You'd be surprised, but a lot of people in Saratoga don't like the racing. They leave. It's the local business people that like it. But if there are no customers, who needs it?

Yes I would be surprised because that statement is not exactly accurate. I know this because I have friends and family who live in Saratoga and Lake George. Most have summer homes in Saratoga but visit throughout the year. BTW about 30% of the residences of Saratoga are considered second/summer homes. I will say this again...even if the track runs without spectators or is closed Saratoga will still have a healthy influx of tourists and second home population for the summer. Even if it’s down 50-60% which is projected from June through September that’s still a hell of a lot of people coming to town.

[westernmassbob]

IMO, that lockdown data is probably misleading.

Most transmissions appear to occur with close and consistent contact (sneezes and coughs). Since most homes have multiple people in it, if one family member gets infected, the probability that multiple members will get infected is probably greater than if I happen to spend a lot of time outside but behave responsibly.

People that are getting infected while on lock down are not getting it because it blew in through the window. They are getting it from someone else in that house that was not locked down, that caught it outside the home, and brought it home to their family.

Two family friends of mine who live alone in different boroughs of NYC got the covid and ended up being hospitalized but thankfully survived.

They “live alone”.....and never left either apartment for 4 weeks before experiencing symptoms of the virus. The only possibility of catching it for them was either the food delivery packaging or mail. Some speculate the air from the ducts as well as air coming from the window. But yes some people getting the virus do live alone.

[drib]

For those questioning the trepidations of Saratoga residents considering the possible summer invasion from Belmont Park (and vicinity), consider the following: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/travel-from-new-york-city-seeded-wave-of-us-outbreaks/ar-BB13J7Yx

[GMB@BP]

For those questioning the trepidations of Saratoga residents considering the possible summer invasion from Belmont Park (and vicinity), consider the following: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/travel-from-new-york-city-seeded-wave-of-us-outbreaks/ar-BB13J7Yx

damn new yorkers, I am glad I finally got someone to blame since it cant be the chicoms.

[drib]

Today's Bloodhorse has an article about attempts to rally NYRA horsemen:https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/240048/finley-calls-for-horsemen-to-rally-around-n-y-racing
Included was this paragraph: "In its May 4 newsletter, NYTHA reported there were 15 active coronavirus cases on the Belmont Park backstretch, with no current hospitalizations and 40 workers released from quarantine. Those figures represent a drop from April 26 figures of 20 active cases, with one hospitalization and 30 released from quarantine."
Unless I am missing something, this is a huge reveal. We have been discussing the viral outbreak in the Belmont Park neighborhood, but now comes evidence that it is rampant in the backstretch. As far as I can tell, there have been ZERO reports of any viral cases in the backstretches of current active tracks like Gulfstream, Tampa Bay etc. This news explains reports of decreased number of horses at Belmont right now. What trainer, in their right mind, would move employees from, say Florida, to Belmont. Hell, there might be legal liability if a trainer ordered his staff into a viral war zone. Todd Pletcher is a pretty savvy customer. Now I can understand why he has, temporarily, abandoned NY: http://classic.drf.com/news/pletcher-closing-down-belmont-stable-until-health-crisis-passes. Of course, as is typical with racing, there has been a deemphasis on any negativity, but this news does explain why there is a delay in opening Belmont, and the reluctance to open the Saratoga Oklahoma facility. I believe there is no way we will see Belmont backstretch workers moving up to Saratoga this summer.

[PaceAdvantage]

Today's Bloodhorse has an article about attempts to rally NYRA horsemen:https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/240048/finley-calls-for-horsemen-to-rally-around-n-y-racing
Included was this paragraph: "In its May 4 newsletter, NYTHA reported there were 15 active coronavirus cases on the Belmont Park backstretch, with no current hospitalizations and 40 workers released from quarantine. Those figures represent a drop from April 26 figures of 20 active cases, with one hospitalization and 30 released from quarantine."
Unless I am missing something, this is a huge reveal. We have been discussing the viral outbreak in the Belmont Park neighborhood, but now comes evidence that it is rampant in the backstretch. As far as I can tell, there have been ZERO reports of any viral cases in the backstretches of current active tracks like Gulfstream, Tampa Bay etc. This news explains reports of decreased number of horses at Belmont right now. What trainer, in their right mind, would move employees from, say Florida, to Belmont. Hell, there might be legal liability if a trainer ordered his staff into a viral war zone. Todd Pletcher is a pretty savvy customer. Now I can understand why he has, temporarily, abandoned NY: http://classic.drf.com/news/pletcher-closing-down-belmont-stable-until-health-crisis-passes. Of course, as is typical with racing, there has been a deemphasis on any negativity, but this news does explain why there is a delay in opening Belmont, and the reluctance to open the Saratoga Oklahoma facility. I believe there is no way we will see Belmont backstretch workers moving up to Saratoga this summer.RAMPANT!

[PaceAdvantage]

For those questioning the trepidations of Saratoga residents considering the possible summer invasion from Belmont Park (and vicinity), consider the following: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/travel-from-new-york-city-seeded-wave-of-us-outbreaks/ar-BB13J7YxINVASION!

[drib]

RAMPANT!

I do not know the precise current #of workers on the Belmont backstretch, but it probably is no more than a few hundred.. A report of 15-20 active cases, for a disease where just one spreader can affect a multitude, qualifies for "rampant". The key here is "active cases". Understand that most reports of cases (NYC right now has 337,000) are cumulative, reflecting all cases from day 1, thus, in general, current active numbers are much less. The report also shows that NYRA, in their use of quarantines, is going way beyond what any other community, outside commie China, is doing to stop the viral spread. Given this, the number of active cases at Belmont is, yes, downright frightening. Again, for comparison, as best I can tell (of course,remembering racing's proclivity to hide any bad news), no other backstretch is reporting even one case ever.
I would add that it is hard to see how Belmont can fill race cards. The current horse population is low, and who is going to ship in for a day, especially when, even if not infected, their workers could get hit with a 14 day quarantine, should they get in the vicinity of an infected person.

[PaceAdvantage]

No other backstretch is reporting even one case?

WHO and the CDC needs to find out what they are doing and copy that model. Imagine all the lives we could save. Racing has found a way to stop the virus!

[dilanesp]

PA is being ridiculous. I don't think the Belmont backstretch is a bunch of typhoid Marys or anything, but this almost certainly part of why we aren't hearing any official announcements about Belmont reopening. They have to show this is under control so that all the protocols will work.

And I'd say the chances of a Saratoga meet at Saratoga right now are at least 40 to 1 against. NYRA has to convince the regulators to let it open at all and not worry about the Spa.

[PaceAdvantage]

PA is being ridiculous.Yes....yes....I'm being ridiculous....sure.....

You must be missing all the news releases posted on off-topic that confirm what I predicted on day 1 of this COVID-19 pandemic...but I'm always wrong Dilane...I'm always wrong...and ridiculous....

[PaceAdvantage]

BTW, the real ridiculous part is thinking a track racing during the pandemic wouldn't try its best to avoid having to report or even test a suspected COVID-19 backstretch employee....as long as he or she is one of the 80-90%+ who exhibit "minor" symptoms, why rock the boat?

What are the reporting requirements for racetracks anyway? Is the state wasting resources investigating whether there is COVID-19 on the backstretch of currently active racetracks?

And let's not forget...racing itself is one of the KINGS of hiding its dirty laundry.

[dilanesp]

BTW, the real ridiculous part is thinking a track racing during the pandemic wouldn't try its best to avoid having to report or even test a suspected COVID-19 backstretch employee....as long as he or she is one of the 80-90%+ who exhibit "minor" symptoms, why rock the boat?

What are the reporting requirements for racetracks anyway? Is the state wasting resources investigating whether there is COVID-19 on the backstretch of currently active racetracks?

And let's not forget...racing itself is one of the KINGS of hiding its dirty laundry.

Obviously tracks would do anything they could to avoid reporting this, and NY tracks are under a microscope because of the region and because there was a death.

But nonetheless, in a PR crisis, whining about fairness is still whining. No health official gives a flying you know what about whether racetracks are treated fairly. They want to make sure that if they let us do this, they won't cause any further spread.

Horse racing needs to learn the trial lawyer's skill of making arguments to hostile audiences. We as a sport preach to the converted too much.

[classhandicapper]

Two family friends of mine who live alone in different boroughs of NYC got the covid and ended up being hospitalized but thankfully survived.

They “live alone”.....and never left either apartment for 4 weeks before experiencing symptoms of the virus. The only possibility of catching it for them was either the food delivery packaging or mail. Some speculate the air from the ducts as well as air coming from the window. But yes some people getting the virus do live alone.

I believe you, but that's very inconsistent with everything I've read and likely to be the exception rather than the rule for home transmission.

It has to be extremely unlikely to catch it through the window unless all the medical people are lying to us. It's also not highly likely from mail/food deliveries unless you are coming into contact with the delivery person to pay or give change etc... However, when I get deliveries I wash all the packaging and then wash my hands immediately because if the handler is positive he could theoretically pass it to the packaging and then to you. At a minimum, you should be washing your hands immediately after handling things from outside. Still, based on the science that has been discussed publicly, that's low probability.

[classhandicapper]

Yes I would be surprised because that statement is not exactly accurate. I know this because I have friends and family who live in Saratoga and Lake George. Most have summer homes in Saratoga but visit throughout the year. BTW about 30% of the residences of Saratoga are considered second/summer homes. I will say this again...even if the track runs without spectators or is closed Saratoga will still have a healthy influx of tourists and second home population for the summer. Even if it’s down 50-60% which is projected from June through September that’s still a hell of a lot of people coming to town.

I have no idea how many people will show up if there are no fans or there is no racing, but I stand by my view that a lot of people that live in Saratoga don't particularly like racing (unless of course they have a business) and purposely leave town during July/August to get away from the flood of people from outside the area. I've talked to people like that and know someone like that.

[classhandicapper]

This news explains reports of decreased number of horses at Belmont right now. What trainer, in their right mind, would move employees from, say Florida, to Belmont.

If the horse population at Belmont is lower than usual right now (I don't know that to be a fact) it's partly because if you have a horse in training at the track it costs a lot more money per day than if you ship him to some farm. As long as the track is closed and you have no racing opportunities, you might as well ship some of them out to a farm, give them a freshening, and save money.

My group did that with one of our two horses. One was getting close to a break anyway. So we sent him to a farm for a couple of months. He just came back. We saved money and now have a fresher horse back in training getting ready for racing to resume.

I have to think a lot of owners made similar money saving moves.

[drib]

Here is an interview with NYRA CEO from early April.https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/239532/orourke-discusses-nyras-challenges-as-covid-19-rages

At that time, he reported there were 585 people working at the track with 1300+ horses, which gives us a baseline. I say that 15-20 active cases in this setting, especially given extreme quarantine measures not being used pretty much anywhere else (one advantage, I guess, of a closed, state licensed, regulated backstretch), is very significant and ominous.
Switching to the business side, this confirms my suspicions that NYRA will have a hard time filling races, at least at the outset. I do not believe regular Belmont trainers will rush to return b/c it makes sense to stay in the safety of GP, TAM, or soon to open CD. As I noted above, I doubt there will be many day shippers. A second issue is purse structure. Remember that, with the Aqueduct casino closed, NYRA loses 39% of purse contributions.

[classhandicapper]

I don't know this to be true, but it sounds like the fundamental problem is convincing the state that racing is no more dangerous than doing what they already doing, which is taking care of and training the horses.

If you can confidently say you have procedures in place to protect people currently caring for horses and that the incremental people needed to put on the show are in no extra danger, we should race.

Not to be cold about it, but let's say there are 10 new cases in May without racing and there would be 10 new cases with racing, why aren't you racing?

You try to reduce the 10 to 5 or better yet 0, but the issue is whether racing INCREASES the risks and cases.

[dilanesp]

I don't know this to be true, but it sounds like the fundamental problem is convincing the state that racing is no more dangerous than doing what they already doing, which is taking care of and training the horses.

If you can confidently say you have procedures in place to protect people currently caring for horses and that the incremental people needed to put on the show are in no extra danger, we should race.

Not to be cold about it, but let's say there are 10 new cases in May without racing and there would be 10 new cases with racing, why aren't you racing?

You try to reduce the 10 to 5 or better yet 0, but the issue is whether racing INCREASES the risks and cases.

That's true rationally, but this process is political, not fully rational.

And politically, if there are active coronavirus cases on the backstretch, it's very hard for a health official to give the go-ahead.

Remember, as PA often reminds us, a lot of businesses are shuttered right now. It plays terribly, politically, to be reopening racetracks when workers at the track are getting sick and other businesses are closed as a precautionary measure.

[classhandicapper]

That's true rationally, but this process is political, not fully rational.

And politically, if there are active coronavirus cases on the backstretch, it's very hard for a health official to give the go-ahead.

Remember, as PA often reminds us, a lot of businesses are shuttered right now. It plays terribly, politically, to be reopening racetracks when workers at the track are getting sick and other businesses are closed as a precautionary measure.

I agree. I was more or less thinking out loud about how we should be thinking about the risks. One thing I'll say is that if there are still new cases floating around at Belmont in another couple of months, you'd have to be a total madman to move all those people up to Saratoga.

[AndyC]

I agree. I was more or less thinking out loud about how we should be thinking about the risks. One thing I'll say is that if there are still new cases floating around at Belmont in another couple of months, you'd have to be a total madman to move all those people up to Saratoga.

Why would infected people be moved? Presumably everybody would be tested before any such move was made.

[cj]

Why would infected people be moved? Presumably everybody would be tested before any such move was made.

I would hope so. You probably also need a quarantine period as people don't always test positive immediately.

[Tom]

But then the problem is horses shipping in for the Toga races - should they be quarantined X days as well? Is it even possible to quarantine a trainer who is racing at other tracks effectively enough to ensure he is clean?

[classhandicapper]

Why would infected people be moved? Presumably everybody would be tested before any such move was made.

I would hope so.

From what I gather the testing protocol now is taking your temperature. It's not an actual test for the virus until you have a temperature (feel free to correct me if I'm wrong). That's probably why they still have cases and people in quarantine. Asymptomatic or more likely pre-symptomatic cases come to work while they are feeling fine but it turns out later they were positive.

You'd probably have to step that testing up a notch to move to Saratoga otherwise you could unintentionally bring some positives along with you to the town unless all the racing people were locked down. That would not be good.

That's the reason some other major sports like the NBA are not playing in a bubble city or something like that yet. They don't have the capacity to test everyone that would be locked down or come into the bubble from outside (families, NBA people, refs, cleaning crews, food services etc..) They could purchase all the tests privately, but the NBA has declined to move itself to the top of the list for tests while there are still shortages of tests for the public in some areas.

I'm just thinking out loud here.

I think if they are still having a backstretch issue in 6 weeks, it would be a bad idea to go up there.

[alhattab]

Why would infected people be moved? Presumably everybody would be tested before any such move was made.

I suspect this would be part of the issue- especially the optics issue. Similar issue with professional sports even without fans. You need a lot of people to make that event go. If you need to test many people to make things work, and testing is still relatively scarce or at least not widespread, how does that optic look? Probably not good if one if prioritizing sporting events over testing people working in grocery stores, prioritized manufacturing or production industries and other essential services.

[AndyC]

I suspect this would be part of the issue- especially the optics issue. Similar issue with professional sports even without fans. You need a lot of people to make that event go. If you need to test many people to make things work, and testing is still relatively scarce or at least not widespread, how does that optic look? Probably not good if one if prioritizing sporting events over testing people working in grocery stores, prioritized manufacturing or production industries and other essential services.

There is roughly 2 months before Saratoga is supposed to start. A lot can change in that time period and I suspect that a lot more tests (faster too) will be available.

[PaceAdvantage]

As you can see from this thread, the real problem is the MINDSET that has been put into place over the general population...

Not the virus.

So, good luck beating that back...you're gonna have a much harder time defeating the fear-factor then the virus itself, as time marches on.

[alhattab]

There is roughly 2 months before Saratoga is supposed to start. A lot can change in that time period and I suspect that a lot more tests (faster too) will be available.

Yes fair point. Hopefully comes to fruition.

[Redboard]

Unless there's a significant resurgence of COVID-19 in the state, Belmont and Saratoga will run as scheduled.

[dilanesp]

Unless there's a significant resurgence of COVID-19 in the state, Belmont and Saratoga will run as scheduled.

Belmont is already not running as scheduled! And honestly despite NYRA's press releases and communications, nobody actually knows when it will even open.

[classhandicapper]

As you can see from this thread, the real problem is the MINDSET that has been put into place over the general population...

Not the virus.

So, good luck beating that back...you're gonna have a much harder time defeating the fear-factor then the virus itself, as time marches on.

It's not irrational fear unless maybe you are under 50 and very healthy. Otherwise, it's like crossing a busy highway. You probably aren't going to get hit by a car, but given there's a safer overpass nearby and very little upside, why do it?

The good news is that both New York State and New York City are still improving rapidly. The positive test rate has dropped from about 50% and 60% respectively to just below 10% statewide and just over 10% in NYC. That's amazing progress.

I said a few weeks back the NY data looked like we were a few weeks behind Italy (which is still improving). That seems to be holding up. The rest of the country is not doing as well. A few states have not even peaked yet and a couple that just reopened may soon see a small spike in new cases.

[PaceAdvantage]

Belmont is already not running as scheduled! And honestly despite NYRA's press releases and communications, nobody actually knows when it will EVER open.FTFY

[PaceAdvantage]

It's not irrational fear You just used the word irrational...not me...please note that.

[dilanesp]

FTFY

Not really. Even I, the eternal pessimist, have my limits. At some point, racing at Belmont or Aqueduct has got to open. For one thing, seeing other race meetings around the country go on without further transmissions ought to be a confidence builder for skeptical officials

[drib]

Saratoga County Fair (July 21-26) has been cancelled
https://saratogatodaynewspaper.com/today-in-saratoga/pulse/item/11617-the-saratoga-county-fair-cancelled

SPAC Jazz Festival June 27-28 nixed: https://www.news10.com/news/local-news/saratoga-jazz-festival-cancelled-artists-to-perform-virtually/

Saratoga horse sales cancelled: https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/how-a-cancelled-fasig-tipton-saratoga-sale-changed-the-bloodstock-industrys-playing-field

The whole SPAC season in jeopardy (catch headline "wishin' n hopin'"): https://saratogatodaynewspaper.com/today-in-saratoga/pulse/item/11578-summer-at-spac-wishin-hopin


Local politicians not happy:
https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/news/2020/05/01/lawmakers-fret-potential-cancellation-of-saratoga-track-season Here I assume they are still hoping for crowds at Saratoga b/c as discussed, without those crowds, there will little business done in town, and that would be accompanied by increased viral risk.

Even today county has not met criteria for phase one: https://www.saratogian.com/news/local-news/saratoga-county-sees-small-covid-19-increase-thursday/article_2f2a6a56-9073-11ea-ab08-134fc60a55ed.html

mike Francesa (NY sports radio icon; horse owner) now tweeting "Saratoga has already been cancelled" Does he know something?

[classhandicapper]

The major difference between racing and all those other cancelled events is the live crowd, but it doesn't sound like Cuomo is especially inclined to allow racing even without crowds.

Let's start with getting Belmont open and see what happens.

[Redboard]

…. Local politicians not happy:
https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/news/2020/05/01/lawmakers-fret-potential-cancellation-of-saratoga-track-season Here I assume they are still hoping for crowds at Saratoga b/c as discussed, without those crowds, there will little business done in town, and that would be accompanied by increased viral risk....

The local politicians seem to want to track to open. They could ignore the governor. A similar situation is happening in other states.

[drib]

The local politicians seem to want to track to open. They could ignore the governor. A similar situation is happening in other states.

That's funny....Do u really think the local Saratoga politicians can force a state licensed and controlled entity like NYRA to run races?....Well maybe if they line up with guns on Union Ave.

[biggestal99]

The local politicians seem to want to track to open. They could ignore the governor. A similar situation is happening in other states.

New York ain’t Michigan.

Saratoga will be canceled for this year.

Allan

[PaceAdvantage]

You poor bastards are advocating for the worst possible outcome to this entire sad affair...and you don't even realize it....you're that cooked.

[drib]

You poor bastards are advocating for the worst possible outcome to this entire sad affair...and you don't even realize it....you're that cooked.


"bastards"; "cooked".....my,my, ...I'll add another word: "fool" for anyone so deluded as to think any post on this board will have any effect on what happens to Saratoga or Belmont. The only person who matters is Cuomo (even the NYRA president, in a tweet today saying Mike Francesa was wrong about Saratoga cancelled, admitted as much), and I see nothing wrong with trying to speculate what he will do.
Here is guess: I think that Cuomo will not even allow fan-less racing until the Belmont Park zip codes are ready for Phase One. Here is a description of each Phase:
https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/05/reopening-ny-seven-steps-each-region-need-take-restart/3085322001/

Note that just today, Cuomo extended the date for evaluation from May 15 to June 7, though some areas can go sooner if they qualify. Here is a chart showing where each region stands:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXL6fOUXQAY8wRh?format=jpg&name=small

Looking at the chart, it is apparent that Long Island is a long way from Phase One; even the Saratoga region is not there yet (confirmed by the article I linked above). The funny thing is that Finger Lakes Race Track might be in the best position to start running very soon.

You may disagree with Cuomo, but you might as well howl at the moon.

[dilanesp]

The local politicians seem to want to track to open. They could ignore the governor. A similar situation is happening in other states.

I always come back to this because it is one of the least appreciated facts about NYRA, a fact that NYRA goes to great lengths to deny. NYRA is part of the government. It has been repeatedly ruled by courts to be part of the government. NYRA has absolutely no power to ignore an edict from Gov. Cuomo. The state government appoints something like 45 percent of its directors, the NYRA reports directly to the state AG, and the state controls NYRA's franchise and racing dates and sits on the other end of NYRA's leases for the tracks.

I wouldn't recommend ANY racetrack operator defy their state and local officials, but NYRA literally can't. The state can basically force NYRA to comply with any order Gov. Cuomo makes.

Drib mentioned Mike Fracensa's tweet. Here it is:

https://twitter.com/MikeFrancesa/status/1259224630201638912

I am actually of two minds about it. On the one hand, as Drib notes, Francesa is plugged in and certainly in a position to know if a decision has made to cancel Saratoga that hasn't been publicly announced yet. On the other hand, I don't trust Francesa, who gets a lot of stuff wrong, especially because if NYRA has made this decision, why wouldn't they announce it? Announcing it, after all, would help strengthen their case for getting Belmont up and running.

Plus, Martin Panza's interview wouldn't make any sense if NYRA wasn't seriously considering trying to race at Saratoga.

So my best guess is that Francesa isn't right about this.

Finally, to answer PA, the best outcome here is for NYRA to get to be able to race ASAP, but holding the Saratoga meet downstate. NYRA will get plenty of betting handle, at least unless there's a virus resurgene that keeps trainers from shipping in their horses.

[burnsy]

Depending what happens the next few weeks there may be a compromise . The state has lost a lot and the meet could really be interesting and profitable because of the hunger for sports. Fans or not.....all these other tracks are running soon. Plus, if testing comes through and they are hiring tracers here it maybe will let up. There’s always tension between Coumo and upstate. The local pols are gonna bitch from both sides. Just having it here means something and some people will come to the area. Many of the major players own property here. Saratoga from home is better than nothing. Couch tour. Either way the Governor is gonna feel heat even if he doesn’t bend .

[classhandicapper]

You poor bastards are advocating for the worst possible outcome to this entire sad affair...and you don't even realize it....you're that cooked.

The worst possible outcome would be going to Saratoga based on "brand" assumptions, having an outbreak in the region resulting from the influx of people from NYC, and some important owners/trainers not showing up because it's expensive to ship and they didn't want to go there just to be locked down and not be able to enjoy it all. So the meet is not nearly as financially successful as projected by marketing and brand experts.

Another worst possible outcome would be no racing at BEL or SAR for many months.

The best outcome is getting BEL opened ASAP and hoping the data in NY improves rapidly enough over the next few weeks to give Cuomo the confidence to consider opening more businesses in NYC and Saratoga.

[Suff]

Depending what happens the next few weeks there may be a compromise . The state has lost a lot and the meet could really be interesting and profitable because of the hunger for sports. Fans or not.....all these other tracks are running soon. Plus, if testing comes through and they are hiring tracers here it maybe will let up. There’s always tension between Coumo and upstate. The local pols are gonna bitch from both sides. Just having it here means something and some people will come to the area. Many of the major players own property here. Saratoga from home is better than nothing. Couch tour. Either way the Governor is gonna feel heat even if he doesn’t bend .

NYRA kicked in Aqueduct as a field hospital. I have to think favor-done-favor-returned. Something-anything has to be done for NYRA.

[Suff]

Tdata in NY improves rapidly enough over the next few weeks to give Cuomo.

My view from the 6th Borough, S. Florida.

My building is 1/2 hotel - 1/2 private.

Hotel occupancy last 4 weeks. 10%-20%-40%-80^

A lot of its local people to get out of the house.
Owners flying in (back in) to get some may-june before Hurricane season.
Guests driving in from NC, Illinois, NY. Flying also. Party of 4, $68 dollars round trip Indianapolis to Miami. 75 people on a plane that holds 150.

Everybody that I’ve spoken to tells me that nobody is taking social distance all that serious in their area. Can you blame them?

Everything is opening up. Soon we’ll know the consequences of that.

My sense is that we’ll keep opening into a ~ 200,000-300,00 death ceiling. 5-8 weeks. Herd immunity is the plan it seems.

Of all the choices, that’s probably the best. No good options.

[drib]

My view from the 6th Borough, S. Florida.

My building is 1/2 hotel - 1/2 private.

Hotel occupancy last 4 weeks. 10%-20%-40%-80^

A lot of its local people to get out of the house.
Owners flying in (back in) to get some may-june before Hurricane season.
Guests driving in from NC, Illinois, NY. Flying also. Party of 4, $68 dollars round trip Indianapolis to Miami. 75 people on a plane that holds 150.

Everybody that I’ve spoken to tells me that nobody is taking social distance all that serious in their area. Can you blame them?

Everything is opening up. Soon we’ll know the consequences of that.

My sense is that we’ll keep opening into a ~ 200,000-300,00 death ceiling. 5-8 weeks. Herd immunity is the plan it seems.

Of all the choices, that’s probably the best. No good options.

Check out Germany, Greece,Taiwan, Hong Kong (more congested than NYC) and South Korea. There were other ways to handle the virus, but, I guess, at this point, you are, sadly, correct.

[dilanesp]

My view from the 6th Borough, S. Florida.

My building is 1/2 hotel - 1/2 private.

Hotel occupancy last 4 weeks. 10%-20%-40%-80^

A lot of its local people to get out of the house.
Owners flying in (back in) to get some may-june before Hurricane season.
Guests driving in from NC, Illinois, NY. Flying also. Party of 4, $68 dollars round trip Indianapolis to Miami. 75 people on a plane that holds 150.

Everybody that I’ve spoken to tells me that nobody is taking social distance all that serious in their area. Can you blame them?

Everything is opening up. Soon we’ll know the consequences of that.

My sense is that we’ll keep opening into a ~ 200,000-300,00 death ceiling. 5-8 weeks. Herd immunity is the plan it seems.

Of all the choices, that’s probably the best. No good options.

200,000+ Americans dead would be an utter disaster.

[Suff]

200,000+ Americans dead would be an utter disaster.

Saratoga racing in 3 months , maybe? I’m expressing my sense of where this is going in 5-8 weeks. 100% conjecture.

I’ve given up on the politics of hind-sight and bad calls. No one, Trump included can be blamed. People are out. One million cases. Whatever it is, it is.

It will mean little to me if Saratoga races with no fans. If I cannot stand on Union Avenue, between Oklahoma and the track and suck in a lung full of Saratoga, then fukk-me.

[classhandicapper]

200,000+ Americans dead would be an utter disaster.

https://covid19-projections.com/

According to these projections (and this model has been very good) there's a 34% chance of 200k deaths by August 1st, let alone by the end of the pandemic.

Scroll down a little and you'll see the probability tables.

There are also state by state projections, former and current r0 estimates, and estimated actual infections compared to test results.

[GMB@BP]

200,000+ Americans dead would be an utter disaster.

for shit like this, seems reasonable. How many died in 1918? (the general comparison to this virus).

[biggestal99]

for shit like this, seems reasonable. How many died in 1918? (the general comparison to this virus).

The “Spanish” flu of 1918 was H1N1 type A.

Medical treatment has come a long way in 102 years.

But to answer your question approx 675,000

But due to medical advancements it’s an apples to oranges comparison.

Allan

[PaceAdvantage]

500,000 people die every year from smoking, yet every bodega and convenience store in NYC still has cigs legally on sale right now as I type this.

Yeah, we as a country are suddenly SO WORRIED about people dying...

What a compassionate country we have suddenly become...at the cost of millions of economically ruined lives no less.

It's about time, I guess.

[dilanesp]

500,000 people die every year from smoking, yet every bodega and convenience store in NYC still has cigs legally on sale right now as I type this.

Yeah, we as a country are suddenly SO WORRIED about people dying...

What a compassionate country we have suddenly become...at the cost of millions of economically ruined lives no less.

It's about time, I guess.

"We shouldn't worry about 9/11. Heck, more people die in traffic accidents in New York."

Seriously, you can always find something that kills more people. So what? I still don't want to see 200,000 of my fellow Americans to die of this, and I won't minimize it by comparing apples to oranges.

[PaceAdvantage]

Remember when they told us this shelter-in-place lockdown was to save our healthcare system? The lockdowns were implemented not to stop people from ever acquiring the virus...it wasn't implemented to stop people from ever dying from COVID-19....

It was implemented to prevent a whole mass of people from acquiring it ALL AT THE SAME TIME...thus overwhelming our healthcare system...we were doing this to FLATTEN THE CURVE...

Well, the curve was flattened LONG AGO...

Remember how Aqueduct was gonna be used as healthcare overflow? Never happened.

Remember how the Javits center was gonna be used for COVID-19 healthcare? Last I heard they were dismantling that whole setup. Was it even ever used?

Remember the drama behind the HOSPITAL SHIP? Barely used...and left the harbor long ago...

So, apparently, the curve was flattened...weeks ago...but the goalposts continue to be moved based on some ever-lurking potential disaster...that's the new narrative....

[PaceAdvantage]

My sense is that we’ll keep opening into a ~ 200,000-300,00 death ceiling. 5-8 weeks. Herd immunity is the plan it seems. Your numbers seem quite impossible to attain given that worldwide, there have been 280,000 deaths to date....WORLDWIDE....over almost four months...when nobody was social distancing at the beginning....

So...how do you figured 200-300k deaths in the USA alone?

[dilanesp]

Remember when they told us this shelter-in-place lockdown was to save our healthcare system? The lockdowns were implemented not to stop people from ever acquiring the virus...it wasn't implemented to stop people from ever dying from COVID-19....

It was implemented to prevent a whole mass of people from acquiring it ALL AT THE SAME TIME...thus overwhelming our healthcare system...we were doing this to FLATTEN THE CURVE...

Well, the curve was flattened LONG AGO...

Remember how Aqueduct was gonna be used as healthcare overflow? Never happened.

Remember how the Javits center was gonna be used for COVID-19 healthcare? Last I heard they were dismantling that whole setup. Was it even ever used?

Remember the drama behind the HOSPITAL SHIP? Barely used...and left the harbor long ago...

So, apparently, the curve was flattened...weeks ago...but the goalposts continue to be moved based on some ever-lurking potential disaster...that's the new narrative....

The distancing was about flattening the curve, but that doesn't mean it was exclusively about flattening the curve.

[PaceAdvantage]

Seriously, you can always find something that kills more people. So what? I still don't want to see 200,000 of my fellow Americans to die of this, and I won't minimize it by comparing apples to oranges.You're right about one thing....apples to oranges.

We can SO EASILY put an end to 500,000 deaths every year in the USA by simply outlawing the sale of cigarettes...and we don't!

But we can't put an end to people catching this coronavirus (like every coronavirus, basically), but damn it, we're gonna ruin millions of lives (economically) trying to do just that.

Apples to oranges indeed.

[dilanesp]

You're right about one thing....apples to oranges.

We can SO EASILY put an end to 500,000 deaths every year in the USA by simply outlawing the sale of cigarettes...and we don't!

But we can't put an end to people catching this coronavirus (like every coronavirus, basically), but damn it, we're gonna ruin millions of lives (economically) trying to do just that.

Apples to oranges indeed.

Smokers kill themselves. Back when smokers killed other people, we DID impose a bunch of restrictions on the freedom to smoke.

[PaceAdvantage]

Smokers kill themselves.Where's your compassion for dead people now?

[dilanesp]

Where's your compassion for dead people now?

I have plenty of compassion for smokers who die of lung cancer.

But freedom arguments are really powerful when you are talking about people taking known risks that only harm themselves.

Why you think "I should have the freedom to kill myself" and "I should have the freedom to kill others" are equivalent or comparable mystifies me.

[Magician]

Smokers kill themselves. Back when smokers killed other people, we DID impose a bunch of restrictions on the freedom to smoke.


your point is ridiculous.

secondhand smoke still causes approximately 7,330 deaths from lung cancer and 33,950 deaths from heart disease each year. how come smoking isn't banned altogether? are those 40,000 lives not as valuable as the people dying from coronavirus?

https://www.lung.org/quit-smoking/smoking-facts/health-effects/secondhand-smoke



you can't shut down the economy for 100,000-200,000 deaths. it is insanity. people sadly die. the government should be requiring masks and social distancing, not shutting down entire sectors of the economy to protect people. people need to protect themselves. there is no rational reason for horses not to be racing at belmont park. it is just a governor being an idiot. horses go to the track everyday no matter what. do trainers still have to pay their workers comp? yes. do owners still need to pay their feed bills. yes. do farms still have to pay their real estate taxes. yes. where does cuomo think the money comes from? does it grown on trees?

[GMB@BP]

The “Spanish” flu of 1918 was H1N1 type A.

Medical treatment has come a long way in 102 years.

But to answer your question approx 675,000

But due to medical advancements it’s an apples to oranges comparison.

Allan

200K IS a lot.

But when a million are dead from poverty, not being able to seek medical treatment (cancer diagnosis are down 40% this year), new homelessness,m suicide, etc....think that 200k is going to look mighty small.

I would generalize that most of this board are older so obviously COVID 19 is a much greater threat than economic turmoil at this point. I try to look at things from both sides of the equation, to find a balance.

[classhandicapper]

Initially, the idea was to flatten the curve and get the R0 below 1 so hospitals did not get overwhelmed. That has been accomplished.

Now we will open up slowly in phases and monitor the impacts over 1-2 week periods to make sure the r0 does not go back above 1.

If we swung wide open again the r0 would almost certainly go back above 1 and we'd be back to square 1 putting the healthcare system and hospitals back at risk. We already know the R0 is way above 1 without distancing, masks, and locking down.

We made a lot of mistakes (especially not focusing WAY WAY more energy on the at risk populations like the elderly and sick).

But generally, IMO, opening up slowly and measuring impacts is 100% correct. I don't necessarily agree that we need to keep Belmont closed if good protocols are in place, but imo in general it would be a clear cut mistake to have the country wide open too fast. We'd blow 200k deaths out of the water in a couple of months and quite easily. We have to keep using masks, distancing etc.. and see how much we can get away with opening without too heavy a downside.

Things are already loosening up where I live in Queens and it was hit extremely hard. More restaurants are opening with delivery and pick up service and a few other businesses are working with smaller crews using CDC guidelines.

[cj]

Long read but worth it. A lot of good details on how exactly you can minimize the chances of getting the virus. The part about outdoor activities seems pertinent to me as it relates to horse racing.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

[classhandicapper]

Long read but worth it. A lot of good details on how exactly you can minimize the chances of getting the virus. The part about outdoor activities seems pertinent to me as it relates to horse racing.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

That was great. Thanks. Must read.

[Tom]

Smokers kill themselves. Back when smokers killed other people, we DID impose a bunch of restrictions on the freedom to smoke.

Smokers DO still people - 41,000 per year. 1300 people die daily from tobacco. Not a concern of yours?

[groupie doll]

Long read but worth it. A lot of good details on how exactly you can minimize the chances of getting the virus. The part about outdoor activities seems pertinent to me as it relates to horse racing.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

very good read. Thanks for posting...

[dilanesp]

Smokers DO still people - 41,000 per year. 1300 people die daily from tobacco. Not a concern of yours?

At some point, people are arguing in bad faith. Nobody seriously thinks there is no difference between harming yourselves and harming others. That's literally sociopathic.

[dilanesp]

your point is ridiculous.

secondhand smoke still causes approximately 7,330 deaths from lung cancer and 33,950 deaths from heart disease each year. how come smoking isn't banned altogether? are those 40,000 lives not as valuable as the people dying from coronavirus?

https://www.lung.org/quit-smoking/smoking-facts/health-effects/secondhand-smoke



you can't shut down the economy for 100,000-200,000 deaths. it is insanity. people sadly die. the government should be requiring masks and social distancing, not shutting down entire sectors of the economy to protect people. people need to protect themselves. there is no rational reason for horses not to be racing at belmont park. it is just a governor being an idiot. horses go to the track everyday no matter what. do trainers still have to pay their workers comp? yes. do owners still need to pay their feed bills. yes. do farms still have to pay their real estate taxes. yes. where does cuomo think the money comes from? does it grown on trees?

A lot of the secondhand smoke in those death numbers accrued before we imposed restrictions on smoking.

[Waquoit]

You'd be surprised, but a lot of people in Saratoga don't like the racing.

They love what it does to their property value, I wager.

[Magician]

A lot of the secondhand smoke in those death numbers accrued before we imposed restrictions on smoking.


incorrect. those numbers are primarily from people who smoke at home and those around them. a practice that continues today. there are idiots out there. just like idiots that drink and drive. like i said, if you are so worried about every life why are cigarettes, alcohol, fatty foods, gambling, etc all legal? they all lead to death. combined much higher than the coronavirus. you can't wrap your society in cellophane. enough with this insanity. the world can't shut down for what amounts to a slightly higher death rate than usual. have people put on masks and go about business as usual until a vaccine is available. then take the masks off. simple. if people don't want to go out then they can stay at home.



explain how shutting down horse racing at belmont park is helping anyone. the horses go to the track everyday no matter what. racing without fans is no more dangerous than not racing at all. stupid people that work for the government (and get paid regardless of whether they work or not) can't dictate what is right for every industry with a blanket policy. idiocy.

[classhandicapper]

They love what it does to their property value, I wager.

:lol: I'm sure.

If I was a permanent resident and hated the crowds etc.. that come along with racing, I guess I'd use some of that equity to buy a second home to get away.

[dilanesp]

incorrect. those numbers are primarily from people who smoke at home and those around them. a practice that continues today. there are idiots out there. just like idiots that drink and drive. like i said, if you are so worried about every life why are cigarettes, alcohol, fatty foods, gambling, etc all legal? they all lead to death. combined much higher than the coronavirus. you can't wrap your society in cellophane. enough with this insanity. the world can't shut down for what amounts to a slightly higher death rate than usual. have people put on masks and go about business as usual until a vaccine is available. then take the masks off. simple. if people don't want to go out then they can stay at home.



explain how shutting down horse racing at belmont park is helping anyone. the horses go to the track everyday no matter what. racing without fans is no more dangerous than not racing at all. stupid people that work for the government (and get paid regardless of whether they work or not) can't dictate what is right for every industry with a blanket policy. idiocy.

Anyone dying from secondhand smoke now has likely been exposed to it for decades. The restrictions came online in the 1990's.

And it is also highly unlikely that thousands of people are dying from secondhand smoke at home. Nonsmokers can easily avoid it at home.

[PaceAdvantage]

Now we're gonna head into a 5-page debate about smoking? :lol:

[classhandicapper]

Now we're gonna head into a 5-page debate about smoking? :lol:

We definitely need some good quality racing back so we can debate biases, trips, and figures instead.

[Tom]

I have plenty of compassion for smokers who die of lung cancer.

But freedom arguments are really powerful when you are talking about people taking known risks that only harm themselves.

Why you think "I should have the freedom to kill myself" and "I should have the freedom to kill others" are equivalent or comparable mystifies me.

Suicide is not legal.
Unless it can be taxed.

No problem shutting down the entire country and all but destroy the whole economy for COVID, but no action at all to ban smoking, which kills FAR more than COVID does. And would only affect a percentage of the economy.....

Get real dude, you are drinking the government Kool aid.

[Tom]

We definitely need some good quality racing back so we can debate biases and trips instead.

Yeah, I case the chart footnotes now...."The rider of Old Paint social distanced himself 6 wide on the clubhouse turn and lost all chance, but came home healthy."

[biggestal99]

Smokers DO still people - 41,000 per year. 1300 people die daily from tobacco. Not a concern of yours?

Self inflicted death, Tom.

They know it causes cancer yet they continue.

What do want a nanny state.

Allan

[dilanesp]

Suicide is not legal.
Unless it can be taxed.

No problem shutting down the entire country and all but destroy the whole economy for COVID, but no action at all to ban smoking, which kills FAR more than COVID does. And would only affect a percentage of the economy.....

Get real dude, you are drinking the government Kool aid.

Tom, there was this thing called Prohibition that happened.

America has fundamentally different values than you do. They value the freedom to drink even if it is risky. They value the freedom to smoke, but not around others in public. They don't value the freedom to murder others by giving them the coronavirus.

It makes perfect sense to most of us. Just not to you.

[classhandicapper]

Here's the numbers from my spreadsheet.

We don't know what the exact death rate from Covid because so many people either don't get sick, their symptoms are so mild they never call the doctor, or the doctor doesn't even bother testing them because symptoms are so mild. It's probably between .5% an 1%.

However, among people that got sick enough to warrant a test and that got put on the official positive count and lists, the death rate has been 5.9% in the US.

5.9% !!!!!!!

I track several categories.

1. Total Official Cases
2. Recovered
3. Died
4. Still Active
5. Serious/Critical

The number of new cases daily is slowly falling (in NY it is dropping fast), the deaths per day are declining, and the recovered patients are rising fairly quickly.

That's all the good news.

However, the Serious/Critical list is remaining stubbornly flat and the Active Cases count is still rising.

There were 1,033,224 people on the active list as of yesterday (many are very new cases just starting to play out) and 16,514 on the serious/critical list.

If the number of active cases die at the same 5.9% rate as before, that means there are 60,871 more deaths baked into the current data that will probably occur over the next month or two. That would take the total deaths over 140k. And keep in mind, we are still adding new cases to the active list as some drop off because they died or recovered.

Maybe this gorilla math of mine is not perfect. I'm not s scientist. Maybe treatments will improve. But a LOT more people that are actively sick now are going to die over the next 2 months and many more cases are going to become positive.

If you don't get that this is a serious problem despite all the lock downs and distancing by now, I'm not sure what it will take. If we were wide open we'd probably have 200k or 300k deaths by now and an active list in the millions with many more deaths baked in.

[PaceAdvantage]

Self inflicted death, Tom.

They know it causes cancer yet they continue.

What do want a nanny state.

AllanDamn. And I wanted to kill myself with asbestos...and I can't...damn...

I wonder why?

Damn nanny state....lol

[Suff]

Long read but worth it. A lot of good details on how exactly you can minimize the chances of getting the virus. The part about outdoor activities seems pertinent to me as it relates to horse racing.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

Right or wrong, and subject to change, I feel more empowered having read that.

12 minute read, updated 3 hours ago.

[Tom]

Self inflicted death, Tom.

They know it causes cancer yet they continue.

What do want a nanny state.

Allan

No - many deaths by second hand smoke,
And we HAVE a nanny state right now.


You do know smoking is an addiction, and and addiction is a disease, right?

Point is, the number of deaths conveniently eludes you.

[Tom]

Tom, there was this thing called Prohibition that happened.

America has fundamentally different values than you do. They value the freedom to drink even if it is risky. They value the freedom to smoke, but not around others in public. They don't value the freedom to murder others by giving them the coronavirus.

It makes perfect sense to most of us. Just not to you.

So sue me.

Just because we allow people to go out and shop, work, etc, doesn't mean you HAVE to go. If you don't want the risk YOU can stay home.

Those who are willing to accept the risk don't agree with you.

[ubercapper]

Self inflicted death, Tom.

They know it causes cancer yet they continue.

What do want a nanny state.

Allan

I don't think Tom, PA, or anyone, wants a Nanny State.


Speaking for me personally, I want some PERSPECTIVE from our leaders. I know we can't get it from most of the media, who insist on leading with the number of deaths, and not the number per 100,000 or the percentage of deaths, or even mentioning the latter.

It's not hard to start with back of the napkin math and determine, at this point in time, how few people as a percentage of the general population are effected, and particularly when removing the vulnerable populations from the totals. (I am not discounting the deaths nor the most vulnerable however).

As of Friday 5/8 the Kentucky stats were:

86,900 tested
6,440 positive (of which no more than 2,000 were ever hospitalized)
304 died (more than half in nursing homes or prisons, which is way more than is represented by those groups in the general population)

As with most states, the peak of positive test occurred near the onset of the pandemic. Over the last 10 days, cases have averages less than 200 and deaths have averaged 8.

[dilanesp]

Damn. And I wanted to kill myself with asbestos...and I can't...damn...

I wonder why?

Damn nanny state....lol

Asbestos isn't self harm. It is a manufactured product and harms anyone who is exposed for a long enough time.

[drib]

Let's get back to the point of this thread: when will NYRA resume racing? As I have said earlier, the only opinion that counts is Cuomo's, and it is futile to argue about his correctness. Listen to the man; he believes that the lockdown in NY saved thousands of lives. He now is adhering closely to a phased plan of reopening the state. I assume that he will not allow racing until a region is ready for Phase One (that is at best; heaven forbid he waits for Phase 2). Right now, Belmont Park has a ways to go, while the Finger Lakes region is just about ready (needs to up testing ability just a bit). If I am correct, it is possible FL could open (no fans of course) within a couple of weeks; however, if we factor in some time to prepare once given a go ahead, Belmont could still be several weeks away.
On another front, it seems more likely that Kee will be running a summer meet https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/pdf/tdn/tdn200511.pdf which will feature some fat purses. Anyone imagining how much business a fan-less Saratoga will draw had best factor in both increased competition for the summer simulcast $, and the loss of many Ky entries at the Spa. Considering the Breeder's Cup is at Kee this year, would not top 3 year olds be attracted to a circuit involving a late July Kee race, still called "The Bluegrass" (getting one over track), followed by an early Sep Ky Derby? NYRA could miss out on many big box office 3 year olds.

[ubercapper]

Asbestos isn't self harm. It is a manufactured product and harms anyone who is exposed for a long enough time.

Your point on asbestos harm being a factor of time relates to Covid-19 in that Covid-19 infections have a significant relationship to "dose and time," with the time a strong component in who is likely to ge infected and who is not, as per the great article CJ linked to earlier in the thread.

Unfortunately, most state's public health experts appear to have missed that, or misunderstood that, when they used a "one size fits" all approach to policy their governor's implemented.

Interestingly enough, in the recent ruling granting a TRO to a churches in Kentucky, the judge wrote "If social distancing is good enough for Home Depot and Kroger, it is good enough for in person religious services, which, unlike the foregoing, benefit from constitutional protection."

[Suff]

As with most states, the peak of positive test occurred near the onset of the pandemic. Over the last 10 days, cases have averages less than 200 and deaths have averaged 8.

I refer to S. Florida as the 6th Borough to make this point. 500,000 people come here for longer than 30 days every winter. 900K statewide. That's not counting the Tourist's who stay 1-29 days. Over a million. ( in 4 months)

Nov. - Dec. 2019 through Jan.- Feb. 2020 literally 100,000+ people a week come here from NY & NJ.

Those are same people who ride subways, go to events, and generally live on top of one another in Metro-NYC.

Yet, nothing epic is happening here. It should be though because this area was packed restaurants & nightclubs, Yacht and Boat tours packed, also cruise ship capital. On and on, while a million people from NYC were passing through...., not to mention Boston, Tons of Massholes here as well.

Boston Globe is printing 22 pages of death notices when the average this time of year is 7 pages. Nothing like that is happening here

[Suff]

Boston Globe is printing 22 pages of death notices when the average this time of year is 7 pages. Nothing like that is happening here

210 beds.

HOLYOKE – Over the past week three more residents at the Holyoke Soldiers’ Home have died of COVID-19 and two more employees have tested positive for the disease, but the infection rate of veterans has remained the same.

Currently, 74 residents have died of the coronavirus and an additional 77 veterans have tested positive in what is believed to be the worst case of COVID-19 infecting a health care facility in the country, according to officials for the state Executive Office of Health and Human Services.

[dilanesp]

Your point on asbestos harm being a factor of time relates to Covid-19 in that Covid-19 infections have a significant relationship to "dose and time," with the time a strong component in who is likely to ge infected and who is not, as per the great article CJ linked to earlier in the thread.

Unfortunately, most state's public health experts appear to have missed that, or misunderstood that, when they used a "one size fits" all approach to policy their governor's implemented.

Interestingly enough, in the recent ruling granting a TRO to a churches in Kentucky, the judge wrote "If social distancing is good enough for Home Depot and Kroger, it is good enough for in person religious services, which, unlike the foregoing, benefit from constitutional protection."

I have said from the very beginning here that religion is different.

[Suff]

Let's get back to the point of this thread: when will NYRA resume racing? As I have said earlier, the only opinion that ds.


I'm playing Gulfstream -good distraction- small handle, limited handicapping.

Handicapping seems a waste of time. Horses, Trainers, Jockeys are all discombobulated. Who knows if the Horses are getting the same amount of walking, gallops and attention?

Saratoga with no fans, missing shippers and the huge jockey colony, would be the same thing. A fun distraction.

As soon as S. Florida opens, which is scheduled May 18th, I will be penetrating Gulfstream. No ? in my mind. I miss the horses.

[JerryBoyle]

Long read but worth it. A lot of good details on how exactly you can minimize the chances of getting the virus. The part about outdoor activities seems pertinent to me as it relates to horse racing.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

Thanks for this

[Tom]

I don't think Tom, PA, or anyone, wants a Nanny State.


Speaking for me personally, I want some PERSPECTIVE from our leaders. I know we can't get it from most of the media, who insist on leading with the number of deaths, and not the number per 100,000 or the percentage of deaths, or even mentioning the latter.

It's not hard to start with back of the napkin math and determine, at this point in time, how few people as a percentage of the general population are effected, and particularly when removing the vulnerable populations from the totals. (I am not discounting the deaths nor the most vulnerable however).

As of Friday 5/8 the Kentucky stats were:

86,900 tested
6,440 positive (of which no more than 2,000 were ever hospitalized)
304 died (more than half in nursing homes or prisons, which is way more than is represented by those groups in the general population)

As with most states, the peak of positive test occurred near the onset of the pandemic. Over the last 10 days, cases have averages less than 200 and deaths have averaged 8.

Sharp post.
Common sense needs to be factored into all of this.

[Tom]

I have said from the very beginning here that religion is different.

And that is unacceptable.

Why should SOME constitutional rights be respected and others denied?

Do not Church goers present the EXACT same risk to the general public as getting hair cut?

When tracing takes a COVID-19 hot spot back to a Church, will that not open the doors for legal action against the air-head governor who failed to protect the public?

Should we, as concerned citizens, "round up" Church goers and "isolate them" from our children and elderly?

Again, current shut down totally lacks COMMON SENSE.

(as do almost all governors)

[dilanesp]

And that is unacceptable.

Why should SOME constitutional rights be respected and others denied?

Do not Church goers present the EXACT same risk to the general public as getting hair cut?

When tracing takes a COVID-19 hot spot back to a Church, will that not open the doors for legal action against the air-head governor who failed to protect the public?

Should we, as concerned citizens, "round up" Church goers and "isolate them" from our children and elderly?

Again, current shut down totally lacks COMMON SENSE.

(as do almost all governors)

Religion is specifically enumerated in the Constitution.

In contrast, "the right to do business" is unenumerated and has been held to be extremely limited.

[classhandicapper]

The data from the weekend is always a little better than the rest of the week, but the NY is data is starting to look way better than even the optimistic projections. Also. two regions in the state (Finger Lakes being one of them) have met the Phase 1 criteria.

Queens/Long Island have met 5 of 7.

If this keeps up, it won't be long until Cuomo has to give Belmont serious consideration.

Finger Lakes should be good to go if they want to start preparing.

[Poindexter]

At some point, people are arguing in bad faith. Nobody seriously thinks there is no difference between harming yourselves and harming others. That's literally sociopathic.


First off, Covid-19 is brutal against people with underlying conditions. Now not everyone with a underlying condition is at fault but I would say most have contributed to their situation by poor diet and lifestyle choices. We have a medical system that has made great strides in many areas that has let people get away with abusing themselves to some extent, but there is little they can do when they get hit with this virus. I think it is like 85%+ deaths if not more were to people with comorbidities. So given that fact, the smoking situation is a little more analogous to this subject then you give it credit for. People choose to eat crap for years, just like they smoke for years. You say that they are free to smoke and abuse themselves as long as they don't harm others as they are free to eat nothing but junk.

So imagine if we lived in a very heath conscious society, what would be the death rate of covid-19,(25 to 30%) of what it is today.

The point I am making is that you say that smokers are free to abuse themselves (we will ignore second hand smoke that others brought up), but theoretically haven't a large % of the victims to this disease acted similarly to the smokers. People don't get heart disease or diabetes because they are eating perfectly. They contributed to their lack of health and this nasty virus is making them pay for it.

Also the term harming others can mean a lot of things. The equation is so one sided to the decision makers. Isn't keeping horses from running harming others (the owners, trainers, jockeys, backstretch workers, employees of the track, ultimately the horses who end up becoming liabilities and we sadly know how that will end). That is such a bs term. Every decision made during this pandemic has harmed others. We have broken families, destroyed businesses, hard working people unemployed and on food lines, despair, years of unemployment for some, 100's of millions of more people around the world will starve to death because of our "protective" actions.....

There are two sides to this equation and the folks on your side of the argument only consider your side of it. Democratic politicians I get, they have a misguided grand vision that we can become one great socialist economy, bigger and better than ever before. Stupid, but I get it. The rest of you in the save lives at any cost camp, I have no clue, but maybe Dilane can explain it. Every question I asked in the off topic forum has been ignored.

[classhandicapper]

Stupid, but I get it. The rest of you in the save lives at any cost camp, I have no clue, but maybe Dilane can explain it. Every question I asked in the off topic forum has been ignored.

I'm not sure anyone here is in the "save lives at any cost" camp, but there seems to be a huge underestimation of what would have happened in terms of the number of cases, strain on healthcare system, and deaths had we not reacted strongly to flatten the curve (especially in NY). It would have been a monumental disaster.

That's why "reasonable" people are saying let's not rush to open everything too quickly or all we have sacrificed in terms of economics would have been a giant waste of time as a second wave of infections, problems at hospitals, and deaths would inevitably explode.

The idea is as we learn more about how it spreads, take actions to prevent that, improve treatments, etc... we can slowly open the economy in stages and see how it impacts the spread to try to keep this thing under control, get the economy recovering, and hope for better treatments or a vaccine.

This is not directed at you, but imo this country has developed a serious mental disorder.

Everyone see everything as all or nothing or as black and white.

The choices are not totally wide open or totally locked down. We are allowed to slowly figure out the balance that minimizes the health risks and deaths and maximizes the economic output as we learn.

[thaskalos]

I'm not sure anyone here is in the "save lives at any cost" camp, but there seems to be a huge underestimation of what would have happened in terms of the number of cases, strain on healthcare system, and deaths had we not reacted strongly to flatten the curve (especially in NY). It would have been a monumental disaster.

That's why "reasonable" people are saying let's not rush to open everything too quickly or all we have sacrificed in terms of economics would have been a giant waste of time as a second wave of infections, problems at hospitals, and deaths would inevitably explode.

The idea is as we learn more about how it spreads, take actions to prevent that, improve treatments, etc... we can slowly open the economy in stages and see how it impacts the spread to try to keep this thing under control, get the economy recovering, and hope for better treatments or a vaccine.

This is not directed at you, but imo this country has developed a serious mental disorder.

Everyone see everything as all or nothing or as black and white.

The choices are not totally wide open or totally locked down. We are allowed to slowly figure out the balance that minimizes the health risks and deaths and maximizes the economic output as we learn.

There is no "rushing to open everything too quickly"...the consumers just won't allow it. Even if the businesses and the racetracks open up right now...the public will take their own sweet time when it comes to patronizing these places. Haven't we heard the tales of woe being told by the business-owners who have already opened up? The customers are staying away...because they are still scared. If the public was disgusted of being locked up at home, and they were "eager to get out"...would these business owners be in the dire straits that they currently are?

The economy isn't screwed because the governors are keeping the businesses closed; the economy is screwed because the public is still SCARED. Even if the restaurants and the racetracks were open for a MONTH now...the customers wouldn't be found even with a search warrant. I know, I know. There are some brave souls who are just dying to go out and "live normally". But there aren't enough of them to keep the businesses going as they must. Even if the businesses open up RIGHT NOW...the majority of them will be closed down voluntarily by their owners in a matter of weeks. As long as the majority of the public is scared...the economy is DOOMED. And there is nothing that the politicians can do about it...IMO.

[Poindexter]

I'm not sure anyone here is in the "save lives at any cost" camp, but there seems to be a huge underestimation of what would have happened in terms of the number of cases, strain on healthcare system, and deaths had we not reacted strongly to flatten the curve (especially in NY). It would have been a monumental disaster.

That's why "reasonable" people are saying let's not rush to open everything too quickly or all we have sacrificed in terms of economics would have been a giant waste of time as a second wave of infections, problems at hospitals, and deaths would inevitably explode.

The idea is as we learn more about how it spreads, take actions to prevent that, improve treatments, etc... we can slowly open the economy in stages and see how it impacts the spread to try to keep this thing under control, get the economy recovering, and hope for better treatments or a vaccine.

This is not directed at you, but imo this country has developed a serious mental disorder.

Everyone see everything as all or nothing or as black and white.

The choices are not totally wide open or totally locked down. We are allowed to slowly figure out the balance that minimizes the health risks and deaths and maximizes the economic output as we learn.

We did what we can do. You can't say that it is okay for Target or Home Depot to be filled with 100 people, while Judy's corner gift shop has to do curbside pickup, because she might at one point of the day get 5 people in the store. The economy doesn't recover with these convoluted regulations. We have flattened the curve the best we can. We cannot play God. Why are we trying to? If you are risk averse, stay home. You will be safe. But for those that want to get out and live every precious moment that they have, they might choose a different route. Since you are at home and basically protected (if you aren't safe , than there is no point in a lockdown anyhow).

This is my confusion on the subject. Reasonable people are free to not take risk, so why does government choose to be so authoritarian on forcing those who feel it is not that big of risk or well worth the risk to enjoy life on their terms. Everyone knows the score. Let them make their own decisions. We all can die at any moment anyhow, so why are we playing this silly game of hiding from death. Everyone need to take care of themselves and take the action they deem appropriate. If they get the virus, they get the virus, if they spread the virus they spread it to someone who is taking a similar risk they are. The rest can hide in their basement, it is okay. With the internet they can go online and tell the rest of us how careless and selfish we are being as we are trying to survive and enjoy life.

[Poindexter]

There is no "rushing to open everything too quickly"...the consumers just won't allow it. Even if the businesses and the racetracks open up right now...the public will take their own sweet time when it comes to patronizing these places. Haven't we heard the tales of woe being told by the business-owners who have already opened up? The customers are staying away...because they are still scared. If the public was disgusted of being locked up at home, and they were "eager to get out"...would these business owners be in the dire straits that they currently are?

The economy isn't screwed because the governors are keeping the businesses closed; the economy is screwed because the public is still SCARED. Even if the restaurants and the racetracks were open for a MONTH now...the customers wouldn't be found even with a search warrant. I know, I know. There are some brave souls who are just dying to go out and "live normally". But there aren't enough of them to keep the businesses going as they must. Even if the businesses open up RIGHT NOW...the majority of them will be closed down voluntarily by their owners in a matter of weeks. As long as the majority of the public is scared...the economy is DOOMED. And there is nothing that the politicians can do about it...IMO.

You are likely right, especially short term. But if things go well, people will gain confidence and some of these struggling businesses might turn it around eventually. Think about it, if people aren't going out in large numbers, there won't be a whole lot of social distancing issues to worry about anyhow (so this huge spike we keep hearing about may never materialize), but as things get better businesses hopefully can transition into a better financial spot. But if they are kept closed or restricted to curbside pickup or takeout only, then they have no chance at all (at least most).

The best road is for the economy to open up, people to act properly and hopefully the numbers will stay within reason. Obviously certain businesses have to make some major modifications. People will gain confidence when it is evident to them that it is relatively safe out there. I have been in that space for the last month, others may not get there for another 6 months or longer.

[PaceAdvantage]

but imo this country has developed a serious mental disorder.Now you're talking....Amen to that....

[dilanesp]

There is no "rushing to open everything too quickly"...the consumers just won't allow it. Even if the businesses and the racetracks open up right now...the public will take their own sweet time when it comes to patronizing these places. Haven't we heard the tales of woe being told by the business-owners who have already opened up? The customers are staying away...because they are still scared. If the public was disgusted of being locked up at home, and they were "eager to get out"...would these business owners be in the dire straits that they currently are?

The economy isn't screwed because the governors are keeping the businesses closed; the economy is screwed because the public is still SCARED. Even if the restaurants and the racetracks were open for a MONTH now...the customers wouldn't be found even with a search warrant. I know, I know. There are some brave souls who are just dying to go out and "live normally". But there aren't enough of them to keep the businesses going as they must. Even if the businesses open up RIGHT NOW...the majority of them will be closed down voluntarily by their owners in a matter of weeks. As long as the majority of the public is scared...the economy is DOOMED. And there is nothing that the politicians can do about it...IMO.

A great example of this is domestic air travel. It is completely "open". You are allowed to buy a ticket and go anywhere.

Yet airlines are getting killed and having to slash their routes. Because few people want to fly.

[dilanesp]

We did what we can do. You can't say that it is okay for Target or Home Depot to be filled with 100 people, while Judy's corner gift shop has to do curbside pickup, because she might at one point of the day get 5 people in the store. The economy doesn't recover with these convoluted regulations. We have flattened the curve the best we can. We cannot play God. Why are we trying to? If you are risk averse, stay home. You will be safe. But for those that want to get out and live every precious moment that they have, they might choose a different route. Since you are at home and basically protected (if you aren't safe , than there is no point in a lockdown anyhow).

This is my confusion on the subject. Reasonable people are free to not take risk, so why does government choose to be so authoritarian on forcing those who feel it is not that big of risk or well worth the risk to enjoy life on their terms. Everyone knows the score. Let them make their own decisions. We all can die at any moment anyhow, so why are we playing this silly game of hiding from death. Everyone need to take care of themselves and take the action they deem appropriate. If they get the virus, they get the virus, if they spread the virus they spread it to someone who is taking a similar risk they are. The rest can hide in their basement, it is okay. With the internet they can go online and tell the rest of us how careless and selfish we are being as we are trying to survive and enjoy life.

I think you are basically arguing that unless regulations are perfect, they are outrageous. That's not true.

Target sells essential stuff. That is why they get to stay open. It isn't that you can't get the virus there- it's that it's a risk worth taking so folks can get their groceries. Whereas much as I sympathize with Judy, her gifts aren't essential, and it's easier to just close all gift shops than institute complex rules that only hit gift shops that draw crowds.

[Ocala Mike]

"The rider of Old Paint social distanced himself 6 wide on the clubhouse turn and lost all chance, but came home healthy."




Waiting to read in the running line, ''Went wide, lost all chance while transitioning to greatness.''

[classhandicapper]

The economy isn't screwed because the governors are keeping the businesses closed; the economy is screwed because the public is still.....

The only point I am making is that there is a middle ground for how this should be done. Cuomo has made some atrocious errors (nursing homes for example) and I may not agree with every detail of what he's doing, but imo he's got the right idea to open in phases when certain standards for safety and virus data have been met. Then after you open a little, you see how the caseload, hospital, and death stats change over 2 weeks before moving on to the next phase. He's taking a balanced approach using the science and data while remaining concerned about the economics. IMO, this is exactly how it should be done. We can always debate specifics, but the approach is correct.

[classhandicapper]

This is my confusion on the subject. Reasonable people are free to not take risk, so why does government choose to be so authoritarian on forcing those who feel it is not that big of risk or well worth the risk to enjoy life on their terms. Everyone knows the score. Let them make their own decisions.

The problem is we have a LOT of idiots in this world that WILL behave irresponsibly and foolishly. That would be OK if they were only putting themselves in danger, but they aren't. Their behavior will put all of us in danger. The rest of us will wind up without vital healthcare because the hospitals are flooded and so many people will be infected it won't be safe to go anywhere if you are above a certain age or have any health issue at all.

I have strong libertarian leanings. So a lot of what's going on goes against my nature, but at a certain point I want protection from people that can't understand or refuse to accept the math and science.

[dilanesp]

The problem is we have a LOT of idiots in this world that WILL behave irresponsibly and foolishly. That would be OK if they were only putting themselves in danger, but they aren't. Their behavior will put all of us in danger. The rest of us will wind up locked down and potentially without vital healthcare because the hospitals are flooded and so many people are infected it's not safe to go anywhere if you are above a certain age or have any health issue at all.

I have strong libertarian leanings. So a lot of what's going on goes against my nature, but at a certain point I want protection from people that can't understand or refuse to accept the math and science.

In addition to idiots, there are also a lot of folks in denial. For whatever reason, tons of Americans who don't know diddly about epidemiology think they are experts, or that scientists are conspiring to crash the economy and eliminate freedom or something.

And as a result, something that should just be a matter of following the scientists' advice has instead inspired significant numbers of people, from the beginning of the outbreak until now, to live in a state of complete denial.

All through this, loud voices have sworn that it was all fake, it was not serious, it would kill very few people, there was no need to take precautions, and finally, that the threat is over and it is time to get back to work.

The belief among many Americans that they know more than scientists do is something that could someday kill us all, and it has had a terrible effect during this crisis.

[taxicab]

For whatever reason, tons of Americans who don't know diddly about epidemiology think they are experts,

You do understand you make this stuff far too easy sometimes........don't ya ? :eek:

[PaceAdvantage]

For whatever reason, tons of Americans who don't know diddly about epidemiology think they are experts,You and Class are actually hitting it out of the PARK tonight...another thing I completely agree with....AMEN pt2

("or something"....lol...nice touch)

[PaceAdvantage]

All through this, loud voices have sworn that it was all fake,Ooops...this line is total bullshit...I guess you can't win them all.

[taxicab]

The belief among many Americans that they know more than scientists do is something that could someday kill us all, and it has had a terrible effect during this crisis.

Really ?
Every single human being on the planet.........gone ?
So far CV19 has killed 0.000034375% of the population on the planet.

[PaceAdvantage]

I was born in 1969.

As a child growing up, my parents couldn't stop telling me about the pandemic of 1968 that killed more than 1 MILLION people worldwide, and 100,000 here in the USA.

They told me stories about how dad lost his job because they shut the economy down...everyone couldn't leave their homes for weeks and months....people lost their homes, their cars, their businesses....kids weren't going to school.....they told me how the virus was especially deadly to people 65 and older and that's how my grandparents met an untimely.....oh wait...that's right...

NOT ONCE IN MY 51 YEARS ON EARTH DID EITHER OF MY PARENTS MENTION THE PANDEMIC OF 1968.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html

[alhattab]

There is no "rushing to open everything too quickly"...the consumers just won't allow it. Even if the businesses and the racetracks open up right now...the public will take their own sweet time when it comes to patronizing these places. Haven't we heard the tales of woe being told by the business-owners who have already opened up? The customers are staying away...because they are still scared. If the public was disgusted of being locked up at home, and they were "eager to get out"...would these business owners be in the dire straits that they currently are?

The economy isn't screwed because the governors are keeping the businesses closed; the economy is screwed because the public is still SCARED. Even if the restaurants and the racetracks were open for a MONTH now...the customers wouldn't be found even with a search warrant. I know, I know. There are some brave souls who are just dying to go out and "live normally". But there aren't enough of them to keep the businesses going as they must. Even if the businesses open up RIGHT NOW...the majority of them will be closed down voluntarily by their owners in a matter of weeks. As long as the majority of the public is scared...the economy is DOOMED. And there is nothing that the politicians can do about it...IMO.

I think this is true to an extent, especially with indoor gatherings, bars, large events, etc. Dilanesp mentioned airlines. Outdoor events that lack density are a different matter. If Monmouth Park opened today I would go probably in any case but especially with attendance limited to say 10k. I don't think there's much of a risk. I'd bring a mask. I'd set up shop by the paddock, bet on my phone and watch the races in the seats and the simulcasts either on my phone or possibly by an isolated TV bank (they exist)- maybe even with binoculars. There is plenty of room there. The primary risk would probably be that some infected idiot would intentionally get too close to people with the intent of infecting them. Same goes with going to the beach- I would do that, too (the beach will be more crowded). Would I go to the 2015 Haskell with unlimited attendance? No. Would I go to an NJ Devils game at this time? No. But 10,000 people at Monmouth Park (or Belmont, or Saratoga, or Churchill Downs) is just fine in my view, and I don't think my perspective is unreasonable or unique.

[classhandicapper]

I was born in 1969.

As a child growing up, my parents couldn't stop telling me about the pandemic of 1968 that killed more than 1 MILLION people worldwide, and 100,000 here in the USA.

They told me stories about how dad lost his job because they shut the economy down...everyone couldn't leave their homes for weeks and months....people lost their homes, their cars, their businesses....kids weren't going to school.....they told me how the virus was especially deadly to people 65 and older and that's how my grandparents met an untimely.....oh wait...that's right...

NOT ONCE IN MY 51 YEARS ON EARTH DID EITHER OF MY PARENTS MENTION THE PANDEMIC OF 1968.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html

I was born in 1959. I don't remember it and never heard of it. The difference is that killed 100K. This one is going to blow past 100k in a few weeks DESPITE all the lockdowns, masks, social distancing and other extreme measures that have been taken to slow it down and get it under control.

This one is a more contagious and deadly disease.

If we open too fast and behave irresponsibly, it might get to 250k.

If we are real idiots about it, it could reach 500k.

And that doesn't count the people that recovered but that have permanent lung or heart damage as a result.

[aaron]

I think this is true to an extent, especially with indoor gatherings, bars, large events, etc. Dilanesp mentioned airlines. Outdoor events that lack density are a different matter. If Monmouth Park opened today I would go probably in any case but especially with attendance limited to say 10k. I don't think there's much of a risk. I'd bring a mask. I'd set up shop by the paddock, bet on my phone and watch the races in the seats and the simulcasts either on my phone or possibly by an isolated TV bank (they exist)- maybe even with binoculars. There is plenty of room there. The primary risk would probably be that some infected idiot would intentionally get too close to people with the intent of infecting them. Same goes with going to the beach- I would do that, too (the beach will be more crowded). Would I go to the 2015 Haskell with unlimited attendance? No. Would I go to an NJ Devils game at this time? No. But 10,000 people at Monmouth Park (or Belmont, or Saratoga, or Churchill Downs) is just fine in my view, and I don't think my perspective is unreasonable or unique.

I think your perspective is reasonable. As someone who has attended Belmont Park on a regular basis for years, I don't know if I would attend if they allowed fans. I say this knowing on a week day there are probably not more than 2000 fans there. Is watching races live worth the risk ?

[classhandicapper]

In addition to idiots, there are also a lot of folks in denial.


100%

On some level I understand it. The media is so full of shit and politically motivated so much of the time, it becomes like a "boy that cried wolf" situation.

That's why I rant about the media so much in OT. They cry about the attacks against them, but they have been destroying their own credibility for years (justifiably). Now if 10 well meaning scientists got on TV and tried to explain the situation, a lot of people would just assume the scientists were spinning things or full of shit too. And the saddest part of all is that the media probably does try to find medical experts that will spin the story to fit their agenda. That requires that you seek out the truth on your own from reliable sources.

[classhandicapper]

I think your perspective is reasonable. As someone who has attended Belmont Park on a regular basis for years, I don't know if I would attend if they allowed fans. I say this knowing on a week day there are probably not more than 2000 fans there. Is watching races live worth the risk ?


IMO, Belmont could open safely now without fans and probably work something out for "limited fans" not long after that if the grandstand doors in the back were left wide open also, everyone social distanced, and betting was done on phones instead of using machines and clerks. To use machines and clerks at this stage would require masks and constant sanitizing of the machines.

[dilanesp]

Really ?
Every single human being on the planet.........gone ?
So far CV19 has killed 0.000034375% of the population on the planet.

The rejection of science, with a virulent enough agent (not coronavirus), could kill us all

[dilanesp]

100%

On some level I understand it. The media is so full of shit and politically motivated so much of the time, it becomes like a "boy that cried wolf" situation.

That's why I rant about the media so much in OT. They cry about the attacks against them, but they have been destroying their own credibility for years (justifiably). Now if 10 well meaning scientists got on TV and tried to explain the situation, a lot of people would just assume the scientists were spinning things or full of shit too. And the saddest part of all is that the media probably does try to find medical experts that will spin the story to fit their agenda. That requires that you seek out the truth on your own from reliable sources.

I am not the media critic you are, but if the public can't tell the difference between a media food fight and scientific consensus, we are so screwed.

[Tom]

Religion is specifically enumerated in the Constitution.

In contrast, "the right to do business" is unenumerated and has been held to be extremely limited.

The right to assemble is also specifically mentioned.

[dilanesp]

The right to assemble is also specifically mentioned.

You have to read that in context. It's about speech and religion (which is why it sits in the First Amendment) not the right to assemble for commercial activity.

[Tom]

Waiting to read in the running line, ''Went wide, lost all chance while transitioning to greatness.''

Touche!

[Tom]

Really ?
Every single human being on the planet.........gone ?
So far CV19 has killed 0.000034375% of the population on the planet.

Yeah, but wait until you see COVID-20!!!!!
This time, it's personal!

[Tom]

The data from the weekend is always a little better than the rest of the week, but the NY is data is starting to look way better than even the optimistic projections. Also. two regions in the state (Finger Lakes being one of them) have met the Phase 1 criteria.

Queens/Long Island have met 5 of 7.

If this keeps up, it won't be long until Cuomo has to give Belmont serious consideration.

Finger Lakes should be good to go if they want to start preparing.

No word from FL on the website.
Maybe Tony C. will read this and chime in.
Problem is the casino is not going to open soon and I bet without that, no racing will be held. Hope I'm wrong, because I drive to the track and sit by the top of the stretch and watch without ever going inside.

[Tom]

I was born in 1969.

NOT ONCE IN MY 51 YEARS ON EARTH DID EITHER OF MY PARENTS MENTION THE PANDEMIC OF 1968.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html

I was a senior in the fall of 1968....and I don't remember ever hearing about it. Maybe did, but nothing serious enough that it was unforgettable.

[biggestal99]

I was a senior in the fall of 1968....and I don't remember ever hearing about it. Maybe did, but nothing serious enough that it was unforgettable.

Thousands sickened by virus shouts the NYT on wed December 11, 1968 on page 49

I was 11 and knew about it. It only really effected the aged so I was happy and carefree.

https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1968/12/11/102305796.html?pageNumber=49

Allan

[Ocala Mike]

I was in Cedar Rapids, IA in Dec., 1968 working a horrible job (white slavery) for Collins Radio Company. I don't remember any such outbreak, but I do remember making plans to return to NY to get away from the ice storms that were a daily occurence there.

[PaceAdvantage]

Oh, the days of innocence...when a pandemic flu that kills 100,000 in the USA and 1M around the world didn't grind the country and the world to a screeching halt.

I guess you call this progress.

[ubercapper]

I was born in 1959. I don't remember it and never heard of it. The difference is that killed 100K. This one is going to blow past 100k in a few weeks DESPITE all the lockdowns, masks, social distancing and other extreme measures that have been taken to slow it down and get it under control.

This one is a more contagious and deadly disease.

If we open too fast and behave irresponsibly, it might get to 250k.

If we are real idiots about it, it could reach 500k.

And that doesn't count the people that recovered but that have permanent lung or heart damage as a result.

I'm a 59er too. I don't remember the 67-70 (that's the range in look back articles) Flu epidemic either. But one has little to do with the other except for the current media fanaticism with numbers of deaths and the hotspots like NYC.

Yes, it will blow past 100K. It might end up at 140K, maybe 150K, in the course of the next year.

However, the day by day increases are dropping for a number of reasons, the number one reason being the number of cases, and the percentage of bad outcomes (hospitalizations, deaths) is ALWAYS higher at the beginning of an pandemic. (As I wrote in another post in the thread I am not discounting a single life lost).

We should never have had this many, if the experts realized and guided policy correctly by putting in restrictions on nursing homes and prisons. Most public health "experts" should be ashamed about forgetting the number one rule of respiratory viruses - they're easy spread in close environments like nursing homes, and they disproportionately effect the elderly. The last I read, one-third of all deaths were in nursing homes. In Kentucky, it's greater than 50%.

That being water under the bridge, if we remove the most vulnerable from the equation, the chance of getting Covid-19, and the chance of getting hospitalized from it, and the chance of dying from it, are extremely small.

Using the numbers in Kentucky, with over 100K tested, 6.4K are positive. 300 died. No more than 2K were hospitalized at any time. Removing the deaths in nursing homes, less than 150 died. That's 150 out of 100K in spite of Kentucky having an especially poor record in terms of contributing factors like obesity and lung disease due to smoking. That rate is going to drop as well as more healthy people are tested.

Therefore there's very little possibility we get to 250K or more nationwide, and because of that the current opening of the economy is safe for most people if they are aware of their surroundings and take precautions, regardless of whether their fellow humans do or not.

[ubercapper]

There is no "rushing to open everything too quickly"...the consumers just won't allow it. Even if the businesses and the racetracks open up right now...the public will take their own sweet time when it comes to patronizing these places. Haven't we heard the tales of woe being told by the business-owners who have already opened up? The customers are staying away...because they are still scared. If the public was disgusted of being locked up at home, and they were "eager to get out"...would these business owners be in the dire straits that they currently are?

The economy isn't screwed because the governors are keeping the businesses closed; the economy is screwed because the public is still SCARED. Even if the restaurants and the racetracks were open for a MONTH now...the customers wouldn't be found even with a search warrant. I know, I know. There are some brave souls who are just dying to go out and "live normally". But there aren't enough of them to keep the businesses going as they must. Even if the businesses open up RIGHT NOW...the majority of them will be closed down voluntarily by their owners in a matter of weeks. As long as the majority of the public is scared...the economy is DOOMED. And there is nothing that the politicians can do about it...IMO.

You make a great point about people being SCARED and the effects of that level of fear on the economy. The fear most people have is, in my opinion, a result of being spoon fed what the media wants the to know. I'm not sure the agenda but of course there are conspiracy theories galore on both extremes about this.

The fact remains there's no PERSPECTIVE and most people won't go looking for the answers themselves.

Just yesterday, one of the local papers had a headline "246 New Cases of Covid-19 in Two Days." Yes, they did mention two days, but in the first paragraph the statement was broken down as 145 cases yesterday and 101 today. No matter the truth of the 246 two-day case count, the headline was there for everyone to see (and perhaps miss the two day mention) whereas they would have had to read the article that cases went down 45% from one day to the next.

I assume this is because media requires eyeballs, and nothing gets more eyeballs then a sensational headline.

When you multiple this by the 24/7 news cycle and all the numbers being bandied about, but no mention of percentages, it explains the fear, and personally what the media is consciously doing in choosing what to spoon feed the masses is potentially more scary than the virus itself IMO.

[dilanesp]

LA County to remain shut down through July:

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-12/coronavirus-beaches-reopen-los-angeles-county-move-toward-new-normal

Now bear in mind, Santa Anita is making a big show of taking entries today, even though there hasn't been a peep from the county on when they will be authorized to run. I'm not really sure what the point of that is.

[GMB@BP]

The problem is we have a LOT of idiots in this world that WILL behave irresponsibly and foolishly. That would be OK if they were only putting themselves in danger, but they aren't. Their behavior will put all of us in danger.

With the above sentence would you advocate abolishing alcohol due to drunk driving accidents? 10,000 people on average die a year to that.

[PaceAdvantage]

LA County to remain shut down through July:

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-12/coronavirus-beaches-reopen-los-angeles-county-move-toward-new-normal

Now bear in mind, Santa Anita is making a big show of taking entries today, even though there hasn't been a peep from the county on when they will be authorized to run. I'm not really sure what the point of that is.LA County was one of the most useless shutdowns in the country.

http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

They shut down....reported figures of around 8,000 cases of COVID-19...antibody testing reveals there are between 221,000 - 442,000 adults in LA County who have HAD THE INFECTION...when they are reporting 8,000 cases officially (at the time of the study in early April).

Now they are going to double-down on stupidity and stay locked down until July?

THE LOCKDOWN DIDN'T WORK. But they're gonna keep it going.

And you wonder why I post the things that I post in response to your nonsense.

[biggestal99]

LA County was one of the most useless shutdowns in the country.

http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

They shut down....reported figures of around 8,000 cases of COVID-19...antibody testing reveals there are between 221,000 - 442,000 adults in LA County who have HAD THE INFECTION...when they are reporting 8,000 cases officially (at the time of the study in early April).

Now they are going to double-down on stupidity and stay locked down until July?

THE LOCKDOWN DIDN'T WORK. But they're gonna keep it going.

And you wonder why I post the things that I post in response to your nonsense.

That’s is an opinion, not a fact.

Without lockdowns there would have been more deaths.

That’s my layman’s opinion which holds as much credibility as yours.

All you have to do is look at meat packing plants.

Allan

[dilanesp]

LA County was one of the most useless shutdowns in the country.

http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

They shut down....reported figures of around 8,000 cases of COVID-19...antibody testing reveals there are between 221,000 - 442,000 adults in LA County who have HAD THE INFECTION...when they are reporting 8,000 cases officially (at the time of the study in early April).

Now they are going to double-down on stupidity and stay locked down until July?

THE LOCKDOWN DIDN'T WORK. But they're gonna keep it going.

And you wonder why I post the things that I post in response to your nonsense.

PA, I know people who live in LA and who got the virus. Thankfully none of them died, though some of them had scary stays in the hospital. It's a horrible illness.

I feel so fortunate that the health officials in my state listened to the views of actual experts and, following their advice, shut down businesses and saved thousands of lives. They are responsive to the needs and desires of voters here, who are strongly in favor of social distancing.

We aren't stupid. We have some of the very best scientists in the world working here.

[biggestal99]

With the above sentence would you advocate abolishing alcohol due to drunk driving accidents? 10,000 people on average die a year to that.

We have severe penalties for DUI.

That has helped the fatalities over the years.

Allan

[ubercapper]

LA County was one of the most useless shutdowns in the country.

http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

They shut down....reported figures of around 8,000 cases of COVID-19...antibody testing reveals there are between 221,000 - 442,000 adults in LA County who have HAD THE INFECTION...when they are reporting 8,000 cases officially (at the time of the study in early April).

Now they are going to double-down on stupidity and stay locked down until July?

THE LOCKDOWN DIDN'T WORK. But they're gonna keep it going.

And you wonder why I post the things that I post in response to your nonsense.




PA, you beat me to a similar post. They've only tested 240K out of 10M in the county so the 0.65% death rate (1570 from 32K positives) is only going to go down further, and likely by a lot given the estimate looking back on the pandemic the overall rate will be in the 0.5% to 1.5% range.

[PaceAdvantage]

PA, I know people who live in LA and who got the virus. Thankfully none of them died, though some of them had scary stays in the hospital. It's a horrible illness.

I feel so fortunate that the health officials in my state listened to the views of actual experts and, following their advice, shut down businesses and saved thousands of lives. They are responsive to the needs and desires of voters here, who are strongly in favor of social distancing.

We aren't stupid. We have some of the very best scientists in the world working here.Lots of platitudes, but little substance in the face of the statistics.

[ubercapper]

PA, I know people who live in LA and who got the virus. Thankfully none of them died, though some of them had scary stays in the hospital. It's a horrible illness.

I feel so fortunate that the health officials in my state listened to the views of actual experts and, following their advice, shut down businesses and saved thousands of lives. They are responsive to the needs and desires of voters here, who are strongly in favor of social distancing.

We aren't stupid. We have some of the very best scientists in the world working here.


Do you know how many of the 2,789 deaths in LA County (as reported in the LA Times article) occurred in nursing homes?


If it's like what we're seeing around the country, the number should be between 33% and 50% of the total but if you have the answer please share.

[classhandicapper]

With the above sentence would you advocate abolishing alcohol due to drunk driving accidents? 10,000 people on average die a year to that.

I wouldn't advocate abolishing it, but I'd have stiff penalties for drunk driving in order to maximize safety that could even extend to a bar owner in some cases, which is exactly what we do.

This why I keep saying we have to stop thinking in terms of black and white.

The choices are not close every business, weld people into their houses and burn all the dead bodies (like China) vs. do nothing at all.

We can do sensible things that maximize the balance between economics/freedom and not allowing the irresponsible and idiots to infect so many people our hospitals are flooded with sick and dying Covid patients so the rest of us can't get required testing, procedures, surgeries and care.

There are legitimate debates about where to draw the lines and when, but we have to use some level of intelligence in this given we already know how easily and fast it spreads and what that would mean if we left it unchecked.

[drib]

LA County was one of the most useless shutdowns in the country.

http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

They shut down....reported figures of around 8,000 cases of COVID-19...antibody testing reveals there are between 221,000 - 442,000 adults in LA County who have HAD THE INFECTION...when they are reporting 8,000 cases officially (at the time of the study in early April).

Now they are going to double-down on stupidity and stay locked down until July?

THE LOCKDOWN DIDN'T WORK. But they're gonna keep it going.

And you wonder why I post the things that I post in response to your nonsense.

I am hesitant to get involved in this stuff, but in the world of medicine, there is a saying "a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing". This discussion is just such an example. There have been some very preliminary, non peer reviewed studies (two in California; both by same researchers, and one in NY) that project a huge reservoir of people who harbor viral antibodies, which then presumes they are safe. You have used a factor 30-55x the number of known cases. These studies are not accepted science b/c of flaws. There is a question about how random the sample is that they took. The Santa Clara study advertised on facebook for volunteers for viral antibody testing. This may have skewed the sample by drawing people who think they were exposed. The NY study used people out and about (thus more likely to be virally exposed) and excluded anyone who was staying home. An even bigger flaw is the unknown reliabilty of the actual antibody tests used. The FDA, understandably, allowed tests to hit market with no real study of their value. The Calif test used has a high false positive rate which renders the results statistically meaningless. To illustrate the non-sensical logic you are applying. NY now reports 347,000 proven viral positives. Using your formula (30-50x hidden positives), this would mean more than 100% of population already has viral antibodies!!!!....of course, I can already hear the explanation....With no proof: There is more than one kind of virus.

[classhandicapper]

However, the day by day increases are dropping for a number of reasons

I agree with you that we really screwed up with the nursing homes and protecting the most vulnerable. I said that in a prior post about Cuomo in NY. That accounts for a lot of the deaths.

But the primary reason things are beginning to improve is that we've been locked down, which is slowing the spread, especially in NYC.

That also stopped it from moving from NYC to the rest of the country in larger numbers. NYC was a few weeks ahead of the rest of the county in terms of infections, but because NY acted, it gave the rest of the states (other than those with a lot of commuting to NY) a chance to close up and limit it before it took hold in large numbers there also - otherwise it would have. Maybe it wouldn't have been a bad as NYC where the population is so dense, we have a lot of public transportation, restaurants, crowds, etc.. but it would have taken off worse.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Do you know how many of the 2,789 deaths in LA County (as reported in the LA Times article) occurred in nursing homes?


If it's like what we're seeing around the country, the number should be between 33% and 50% of the total but if you have the answer please share.

According to the LA County website, 745 out of the 1,569 LA County Covid deaths were at "residential congregate settings" (e.g., a nursing home or assisted living facility).

http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/coronavirus/locations.htm

Page down to see the "residential congregate settings" number.

[PaceAdvantage]

I am hesitant to get involved in this stuff, but in the world of medicine, there is a saying "a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing". This discussion is just such an example. There have been some very preliminary, non peer reviewed studies (two in California; both by same researchers, and one in NY) that project a huge reservoir of people who harbor viral antibodies, which then presumes they are safe. You have used a factor 30-55x the number of known cases. These studies are not accepted science b/c of flaws. There is a question about how random the sample is that they took. The Santa Clara study advertised on facebook for volunteers for viral antibody testing. This may have skewed the sample by drawing people who think they were exposed. The NY study used people out and about (thus more likely to be virally exposed) and excluded anyone who was staying home. An even bigger flaw is the unknown reliabilty of the actual antibody tests used. The FDA, understandably, allowed tests to hit market with no real study of their value. The Calif test used has a high false positive rate which renders the results statistically meaningless. To illustrate the non-sensical logic you are applying. NY now reports 347,000 proven viral positives. Using your formula (30-50x hidden positives), this would mean more than 100% of population already has viral antibodies!!!!....of course, I can already hear the explanation....With no proof: There is more than one kind of virus.Then LA County shouldn't have posted those results on their website.

My link isn't from Alex Jones or QAnon...it's from the LA County official website.

BTW, the 30-55x number you cite at the end, and then apply to NY (not to mention your wording "you have used..." I DIDN'T USE ANYTHING...the study on the official LA County website USED that number)...why are you applying that number to NY? Isn't the 30-55x from the LA County study? (and by the way, the actual number used on the LA County website is 28-55x, but who's counting, right?)

[classhandicapper]

I find it startling that a forum of gamblers can look at the current data and not be particularly sensitive to the fact that what the data is now and what it would have been if we did nothing are dramatically different things.

Quoting current stats is like saying my very deep closer won therefore I'm going to bet very deep closers from now on without considering that there was a blistering pace in front him and it was a track that was favoring closers the day you won.

We've been locked down for over a month or the data would be monumentally worse.

[PaceAdvantage]

I find it startling that a forum of gamblers can look at the current data and not be particularly sensitive to the fact that what the data is now and what it would have been if we did nothing are dramatically different things.

Quoting current stats is like saying my very deep closer won therefore I'm going to bet very deep closers from now on without considering that there was a blistering pace in front him and it was a track that was favoring closers the day you won.

We've been locked down for over a month or the data would be monumentally worse.If people had gone around saying we should never have done anything in response to COVID-19, you might have a point.

[Fred Mertz]

That also stopped it from moving from NYC to the rest of the country in larger numbers. NYC was a few weeks ahead of the rest of the county in terms of infections, but because NY acted, it gave the rest of the states (other than those with a lot of commuting to NY) a chance to close up and limit it before it took hold in large numbers there also - otherwise it would have.

Where did you come up with that fairy tale?

I've read a very different account of how NYC helped infect the rest of the country. I know there are conflicting reports, but NY is #1 if you believe the data provided to us peons by the NYTimes.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/travel-from-new-york-city-seeded-wave-of-us-outbreaks/ar-BB13J7Yx

[ubercapper]

I find it startling that a forum of gamblers can look at the current data and not be particularly sensitive to the fact that what the data is now and what it would have been if we did nothing are dramatically different things.

Quoting current stats is like saying my very deep closer won therefore I'm going to bet very deep closers from now on without considering that there was a blistering pace in front him and it was a track that was favoring closers the day you won.

We've been locked down for over a month or the data would be monumentally worse.

I respectfully disagree the data would be monumentally worse. Data is always skewed high at the beginning of a pandemic and drops, sometimes significantly, over time. It very likely would have dropped no matter what, and particularly so since the "experts" badly underestimated what percentage of the population would follow mitigation guidelines at the start of the pandemic.

The initial models from the source most public officials are using comes from IHME. Their initial projections, which started out in the millions at the high end, with 220K at the low end (if I recall correctly), were based on an estimate of 50% overall compliance throughout the country.

After a few weeks the high low end estimate dropped significantly to 134K, then 80K, then 64K, and has since been revised upward as some stats are re-opening.

Every change has been based on evidence of what percentage of the population was mitigating as well as the disease itself, and been wrong in estimating both the disease and level public compliance.

In Kentucky, the model initially predicted a low end of 13K. It is now at 2K but won't even get there in a year based on 300 deaths now and an average of less than 10 a day and dropping.

I do recognize these are just models, but a good number of people took them as gospel, which I suppose was fine in the beginning but not so good any longer as we have more data and need estimates less and less.

[GMB@BP]

We have severe penalties for DUI.

That has helped the fatalities over the years.

Allan

Your right, it has reduced it by about 10% on average in 20 years.

LOL, severe. Really put a stop to it.

[ubercapper]

Your right, it has reduced it by about 10% on average in 20 years.

LOL, severe. Really put a stop to it.


Agreed. I think the old quote "Men are not hanged for stealing horse, but that horses may not be stolen" was proven false a long time ago. This is particularly true where crimes of impulse and passion are concerned.

[PaceAdvantage]

Had to delete the last post made in this thread...got WAY too political...and I've been very LENIENT so far...

And for those curious, it was a post bashing Democrats.

[Poindexter]

I find it startling that a forum of gamblers can look at the current data and not be particularly sensitive to the fact that what the data is now and what it would have been if we did nothing are dramatically different things.

Quoting current stats is like saying my very deep closer won therefore I'm going to bet very deep closers from now on without considering that there was a blistering pace in front him and it was a track that was favoring closers the day you won.

We've been locked down for over a month or the data would be monumentally worse.

What is monumentally worse? As of now Sweden is at 328 deaths per million and we are at 251. Let's say we did twice as bad as Sweden (have to assume that would be the worst case scenario) that would put us at 656 deaths per mllion vs 251. As a bonus we would actually be on our way to achieving herd immunity. Add in a little more focus on protecting the most vulnerable and in the long run (a year from now) the numbers may actually been fairly similar to what they will be had we not decimated our economy and we will not have all the other deaths that go along with our current approach. It is too late to undo what has been done, but we certainly should transition that direction. Or we can just on lockdown forever and perhaps ask Sweden to bail us out as we run out of money and our population starts starving to death.

[Poindexter]

Had to delete the last post made in this thread...got WAY too political...and I've been very LENIENT so far...

And for those curious, it was a post bashing Democrats.

That was my first delete post (too my knowledge). I feel honored. I have made the big leagues. Honestly I have been hesitant to post in this thread, but CH and Dilane aren't posting in the off topic one.

[dilanesp]

The CSU's are not going to open for in person classes in the fall.

We are in this for the long haul here in California:

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-12/coronavirus-reopening-csu-fall-online-classes

[dilanesp]

What is monumentally worse? As of now Sweden is at 328 deaths per million and we are at 251. Let's say we did twice as bad as Sweden (have to assume that would be the worst case scenario) that would put us at 656 deaths per mllion vs 251. As a bonus we would actually be on our way to achieving herd immunity. Add in a little more focus on protecting the most vulnerable and in the long run (a year from now) the numbers may actually been fairly similar to what they will be had we not decimated our economy and we will not have all the other deaths that go along with our current approach. It is too late to undo what has been done, but we certainly should transition that direction. Or we can just on lockdown forever and perhaps ask Sweden to bail us out as we run out of money and our population starts starving to death.

Sweden didn't lock down as much as the US did, but they still closed plenty of gatherings.

The worst case scenario is a lot worse than Sweden.

And if you aren't an epidemiologist, please don't go off on "herd immunity". We literally have no idea how well "herd immunity" is going to work here, or how much damage is going to be done to people's lungs achieving it.

People are talking about this as if we just let everyone get this and we'll be fine. In addition to the fact that lots of people would die if we did that, we are not even sure if at the end of the day it would stop the pandemic.

[dilanesp]

Your right, it has reduced it by about 10% on average in 20 years.

LOL, severe. Really put a stop to it.

I will tell you that my parents have both told me stories about how back in the day, despite DUI's being against the law, the LAPD did nothing about it. They just told you to drive carefully and send you home.

I have to believe that had that continued to be the way we did things, it would substantially increase the number of people killed or injured by drunk drivers.

It's very hard to stop ANYTHING related to drinking, because Americans love to drink. Heck, one of the reasons we got Prohibition in the first place was this was seen as such a national problem that people felt a constitutional amendment was necessary to stop it.

So you take your victories when you can. But the fact that at least you are going to be hit with $10,000 in fines and a license suspension for a DUI is a substantial improvement over the old days.

[Poindexter]

Sweden didn't lock down as much as the US did, but they still closed plenty of gatherings.

The worst case scenario is a lot worse than Sweden.

And if you aren't an epidemiologist, please don't go off on "herd immunity". We literally have no idea how well "herd immunity" is going to work here, or how much damage is going to be done to people's lungs achieving it.

People are talking about this as if we just let everyone get this and we'll be fine. In addition to the fact that lots of people would die if we did that, we are not even sure if at the end of the day it would stop the pandemic.

I said worse case would be double Sweden(which is a lot worse). Nobody said not to close gatherings and use intelligent preventive measures. I said we have to transition into their model because the California lockdown forever model is not sustainable. California and even LA never really had a problem. Period. I must be a walking miracle. Every day I go into a warehouse with 60 other people(and I am exposed to a lot more than 60 people over the course of a week) and miraculously I come home and go back the next day. Almost 1/2 of California's deaths are nursing/assisted living home based and we already at a pretty paltry 72 deaths per million. If they focused there energies on the vulnerable we would be looking at like 45 deaths per million. Why is that grounds for keeping an economy on lockdown indefinitely. Mayor Garcetti just reopened beaches but for active use only. It is better to stay at home with your family than to go out in the sun when we know how beneficial the sun and Vitamin D is for this virus? How can any expert justify that logic? It is this typical nonsense that gives me zero respect for the "experts" you so admire.

Andy Serling gets respect from horseplayers because he gives his "expert" opinion and people watch the results race after race and determine he has a good opinion. The Epidemiologist must do the same. When I heard Garcetti guaranteeing that LA was going to be the next NY in 2 weeks (this was maybe around march 20th) and I see what really happened, I realized it was all garbage. I started looking at the numbers each day of NY and Calfornia, saw that California was going nowhere near NY and I stopped worrying. Everything since has been a power grab and nothing else.

It has been about 18 days since Georgia reopened. I haven't been following their numbers but based of your interpretation of the seriousness of this disease their number of cases should have blown up to the moon and I should be seeing pictures of people in body bags scattered up and down the streets of Georgia. When I google Georgia since reopening I don't see much of anything. Maybe somebody that lives out there can fill us in but my hunch is that as these opened up states remain open it will become glaringly clear that this is all a huge overreaction and that California kept way too much of it's economy on lockdown for way too long. Meanwhile, they are begging for a handout from the Federal Government.

[dilanesp]

I said worse case would be double Sweden(which is a lot worse). Nobody said not to close gatherings and use intelligent preventive measures. I said we have to transition into their model because the California lockdown forever model is not sustainable. California and even LA never really had a problem. Period. I must be a walking miracle. Every day I go into a warehouse with 60 other people(and I am exposed to a lot more than 60 people over the course of a week) and miraculously I come home and go back the next day. Almost 1/2 of California's deaths are nursing/assisted living home based and we already at a pretty paltry 72 deaths per million. If they focused there energies on the vulnerable we would be looking at like 45 deaths per million. Why is that grounds for keeping an economy on lockdown indefinitely. Mayor Garcetti just reopened beaches but for active use only. It is better to stay at home with your family than to go out in the sun when we know how beneficial the sun and Vitamin D is for this virus? How can any expert justify that logic? It is this typical nonsense that gives me zero respect for the "experts" you so admire.

Andy Serling gets respect from horseplayers because he gives his "expert" opinion and people watch the results race after race and determine he has a good opinion. The Epidemiologist must do the same. When I heard Garcetti guaranteeing that LA was going to be the next NY in 2 weeks (this was maybe around march 20th) and I see what really happened, I realized it was all garbage. I started looking at the numbers each day of NY and Calfornia, saw that California was going nowhere near NY and I stopped worrying. Everything since has been a power grab and nothing else.

It has been about 18 days since Georgia reopened. I haven't been following their numbers but based of your interpretation of the seriousness of this disease their number of cases should have blown up to the moon and I should be seeing pictures of people in body bags scattered up and down the streets of Georgia. When I google Georgia since reopening I don't see much of anything. Maybe somebody that lives out there can fill us in but my hunch is that as these opened up states remain open it will become glaringly clear that this is all a huge overreaction and that California kept way too much of it's economy on lockdown for way too long. Meanwhile, they are begging for a handout from the Federal Government.

The thing is, the epidemiologists are doing amazingly well. Better than even Andy Serling (and he's a great handicapper). The countries that have listened to the epidemiologists have had the best results against the pandemic.

Not only that, but the epidemiologists also have done very well on past epidemics, such as H1N1, Gripe A, SARS, MERS, and Ebola.

They have a sterling record. The only reason people are defaming them is because people have ideological objections to the science- which is basically one of the oldest stories in America, going back at least as far as the Scopes Trial.

[classhandicapper]

What is monumentally worse? As of now Sweden is at 328 deaths per million and we are at 251. Let's say we did twice as bad as Sweden (have to assume that would be the worst case scenario) that would put us at 656 deaths per mllion vs 251. As a bonus we would actually be on our way to achieving herd immunity. Add in a little more focus on protecting the most vulnerable and in the long run (a year from now) the numbers may actually been fairly similar to what they will be had we not decimated our economy and we will not have all the other deaths that go along with our current approach. It is too late to undo what has been done, but we certainly should transition that direction. Or we can just on lockdown forever and perhaps ask Sweden to bail us out as we run out of money and our population starts starving to death.

I don't know exactly what monumentally worse is, but I know what the trend was in NYC for in cases, hospitals, ICU and deaths before we locked down and I know what it is now and they are miles apart. NY moved too late and made some terrible moves with nursing homes etc.., but we are doing a lot of things right now and that's helping the rest of the country.

Herd immunity is a LONG WAY away in the US. NYC is the epicenter and we are estimated at about 20% (and that's probably overstated because of the way they selected people). You have to get to around 60% or 70% (sometimes higher) to have herd immunity depending on how contagious it is. That's not happening any time soon nationally.

Again, the choice is not total lockdown or wide open.

The choice looking at data, science, economic costs, etc.. and adjusting our decision making to maximize our results in a balanced way as more data comes in or we can basically be fools and not listen to the science and new data at all and do what we feel like doing.

[Poindexter]

The thing is, the epidemiologists are doing amazingly well. Better than even Andy Serling (and he's a great handicapper). The countries that have listened to the epidemiologists have had the best results against the pandemic.

Not only that, but the epidemiologists also have done very well on past epidemics, such as H1N1, Gripe A, SARS, MERS, and Ebola.

They have a sterling record. The only reason people are defaming them is because people have ideological objections to the science- which is basically one of the oldest stories in America, going back at least as far as the Scopes Trial.

I will let PA take this post on, but one thing I would like from you is to give the official epidemiologist prediction on each state as they open. I assume with your connections you have access to the brightest epidemiologists out there. So when Georgia opened 18 days ago, what was their prediction based on their opening. What kind of spike in cases, what kind of spike in deaths? That way next month and in 2 months etc. I can see just how really sharp they are. Do the same for every other state. When I see what really happens, I can comfirm that there sterling record remains in tact and then during the next pandemic I will take their predictions a lot more seriously. In fact I would like to see a web site called epidemiologist.com that does just that. I just a tad more skeptical than you are and would like to verify their greatness with actual predictions and results. Sort of like a handicapper verify's Andy Serling's talent.

Unfortunately the 2 major predictions I head were from LA Mayor Garcetti and California Governor Newsom and there predictions were so far off I came to the conclusion Epidemiologist's don't know their *** from a hole in the ground. The Fauci Video that PA Posted and the Nancy Pelosi's of the world telling everyone it is safe to come out didn't help much either. Sorry for my tainted view.

[classhandicapper]

The initial models from the source most public officials are using comes from IHME. Their initial projections, which started out in the millions at the high end, with 220K at the low end (if I recall correctly), were based on an estimate of 50% overall compliance throughout the country.

.

The IHME model was widely criticized, ultimately discredited, removed from the CDC list of models, and then totally redone by the creators after the flaws were identified.

I used to look at that IHME model, but it became apparent to me how wrong it was a few weeks back so I stopped trusting it. The guys that created the model below are the ones that told IHME what they were doing wrong.

Not that I trust any of these models totally, but this one has been pretty good right from the start. There are some probability tables if you scroll down and you can also looks at state projections.

https://covid19-projections.com/