Will Belmont even have a meet this year?

[westernmassbob]

IMO I don’t think so even without live audience. Is it possible that Saratoga would extend their meeting and start early? I can see that happening with a June 1st start date. I’m hearing a lot of owners would rather ship straight to Toga.

[PaceAdvantage]

All racing has been cancelled until at least 2022.

[cj]

All racing has been cancelled until at least 2022.

https://noisyroom.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/b6459864891f93e201eb300894a66548.jpg

[Afleet]

FYI-Parx earliest possible opening is June 1-best case scenario so Belmont probably well after that

[cj]

FYI-Parx earliest possible opening is June 1-best case scenario so Belmont probably well after that

Parx isn't opening until the casino opens I would bet. Does that apply to NYRA? i have no idea but my guess would be no.

[westernmassbob]

FYI-Parx earliest possible opening is June 1-best case scenario so Belmont probably well after that

Maybe they should have a Belmont @ Saratoga meet. At least it will keep all parties involved segregated to one N.Y. track for spring summer season. Many horsemen will probably not want to ship into Belmont in the next month or so even if they run they are more likely to ship to Toga. In any event if NYRA cancels everything the next several months Gulfstream will end up being the go to track with a year round championship meet. Of course this is all an opinion and I seriously hope NYRA gets back into the game.

[Afleet]

Maybe they should have a Belmont @ Saratoga meet. At least it will keep all parties involved segregated to one N.Y. track for spring summer season. Many horsemen will probably not want to ship into Belmont in the next month or so even if they run they are more likely to ship to Toga. In any event if NYRA cancels everything the next several months Gulfstream will end up being the go to track with a year round championship meet. Of course this is all an opinion and I seriously hope NYRA gets back into the game.

I think people will be up in arms if there is no Saratoga meet. I'm not from NY or the area but you are starting to see more and more protests across the country. People are not going to stay indoors during the summer especially after being indoors all winter

[dilanesp]

I think people will be up in arms if there is no Saratoga meet. I'm not from NY or the area but you are starting to see more and more protests across the country. People are not going to stay indoors during the summer especially after being indoors all winter

So far... and I will emphasize, this may not be true in 3 weeks... those protests are pretty small and public opinion emphatically supports distancing.

Honestly, I highly doubt that New York is going to push anytime soon to open up.

At the same time, other than the obvious statement that Belmont isn't opening on time, I don't know how close NYRA is or isn't to any decision to race without spectators.

[AndyC]

So far... and I will emphasize, this may not be true in 3 weeks... those protests are pretty small and public opinion emphatically supports distancing.

Honestly, I highly doubt that New York is going to push anytime soon to open up.

At the same time, other than the obvious statement that Belmont isn't opening on time, I don't know how close NYRA is or isn't to any decision to race without spectators.

Yesterday NYC had 18 deaths from the corona virus down from a high of 533 only 12 days earlier. Based on the stats from NYC, being under 65 your chances of dying from the virus are a little less than .001. By keeping things shut down it becomes a punishment and certainly not protective of the people. When the stats start showing no deaths and few new infections the protests will be overwhelming. I expect that to happen soon.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

[PaceAdvantage]

Yesterday NYC had 18 deaths from the corona virus down from a high of 533 only 12 days earlier. Based on the stats from NYC, being under 65 your chances of dying from the virus are a little less than .001. By keeping things shut down it becomes a punishment and certainly not protective of the people. When the stats start showing no deaths and few new infections the protests will be overwhelming. I expect that to happen soon.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.pageHoly shit...I had no idea the situation was that under control...talk about curve flattening...

WTF?

How can there by ANY pushback against talk about starting the "reopening process" when all three curves (cases, hospitalization and deaths) have been flattened almost to the point of oblivion?

And this is the WORST SPOT in the USA!?!?!?

[classhandicapper]

Yesterday NYC had 18 deaths from the corona virus down from a high of 533 only 12 days earlier. Based on the stats from NYC, being under 65 your chances of dying from the virus are a little less than .001. By keeping things shut down it becomes a punishment and certainly not protective of the people. When the stats start showing no deaths and few new infections the protests will be overwhelming. I expect that to happen soon.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

Just a note. The NYC data is never up to date. It's likely that 18 will be adjusted upwards over the next few days. The trend is still very good though.

[dilanesp]

Holy shit...I had no idea the situation was that under control...talk about curve flattening...

WTF?

How can there by ANY pushback against talk about starting the "reopening process" when all three curves (cases, hospitalization and deaths) have been flattened almost to the point of oblivion?

And this is the WORST SPOT in the USA!?!?!?

If the scientists say this, that's fine.

OTOH if the scientists say the numbers will go back up if we reopen, we should listen.

And the fact those numbers have decreased so much vindicates the scientists.

[Tom]

Close enough - RIDERS UP!:coffee:

[lamboguy]

my guess is that Belmont will open up by the middle of June or before with no spectator's. and by the end of the summer there will be spectator's at a New York track wherever they run. with or without the casinos opening.

maybe the governor would use racing as a guide to open up other things because it doesn't have as much a crowd as other events. if i was the guy in charge of racing i would be meeting with the governor with a plan to show him how opening up would be beneficial to the state. with all the people that live in New York, racing could be a big help for the governor to make his tough decisions.

[westernmassbob]

my guess is that Belmont will open up by the middle of June or before with no spectator's. and by the end of the summer there will be spectator's at a New York track wherever they run. with or without the casinos opening.

maybe the governor would use racing as a guide to open up other things because it doesn't have as much a crowd as other events. if i was the guy in charge of racing i would be meeting with the governor with a plan to show him how opening up would be beneficial to the state. with all the people that live in New York, racing could be a big help for the governor to make his tough decisions.


Sure why not open up the racing first because that’s where it basically all started....at a racetrack. Yonkers raceway has been basically confirmed the ground zero of the China virus. Ironically the 3 heaviest hit states all have casinos in them. Then again a lot of states have casinos but not as big or occupied as the northeast ones.

[lamboguy]

in mass. part of the spread of the corona comes from the Biogen conference. also when the government closed up flights from China, the people that wanted to leave China went to Europe and spread the virus there and when they got done they snuck in to Boston, New York and other east coast cities with the virus and nailed us good in February. in mass. this had nothing to do with casino's.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/us/coronavirus-biogen-boston-superspreader.html

[groupie doll]

in mass. part of the spread of the corona comes from the Biogen conference. also when the government closed up flights from China, the people that wanted to leave China went to Europe and spread the virus there and when they got done they snuck in to Boston, New York and other east coast cities with the virus and nailed us good in February. in mass. this had nothing to do with casino's.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/us/coronavirus-biogen-boston-superspreader.html

Yes, and one individual flew to Tennessee from that Biogen conference and became one the first positives in that state, if memory serves.

[Zman179]

Yesterday NYC had 18 deaths from the corona virus down from a high of 533 only 12 days earlier. Based on the stats from NYC, being under 65 your chances of dying from the virus are a little less than .001. By keeping things shut down it becomes a punishment and certainly not protective of the people. When the stats start showing no deaths and few new infections the protests will be overwhelming. I expect that to happen soon.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
Holy shit...I had no idea the situation was that under control...talk about curve flattening...

WTF?

How can there by ANY pushback against talk about starting the "reopening process" when all three curves (cases, hospitalization and deaths) have been flattened almost to the point of oblivion?

And this is the WORST SPOT in the USA!?!?!?

The stats are wrong. Yesterday 474 people died in NY State due to COVID. 95% of all deaths in NYS come from NYC, Nassau, Suffolk and Westchester counties. Where I work, 80 of my co-workers have died from COVID, 7 of whom I worked with personally. Many of my coworkers go to work in fear that they will be next.

Many places might be able to return to quasi-normal within the next few months. Expect the NYC area to be one of the last ones.

[Zman179]

I think people will be up in arms if there is no Saratoga meet. I'm not from NY or the area but you are starting to see more and more protests across the country.

The only protests you might see here are local Saratoga County residents knowing that their region will be flooded by downstaters come the summer. They have already let it be known that, currently, downstaters aren’t welcome due to fears that we will cause a rapid increase in infections.

[AndyC]

The stats are wrong. Yesterday 474 people died in NY State due to COVID. 95% of all deaths in NYS come from NYC, Nassau, Suffolk and Westchester counties. Where I work, 80 of my co-workers have died from COVID, 7 of whom I worked with personally. Many of my coworkers go to work in fear that they will be next.

Many places might be able to return to quasi-normal within the next few months. Expect the NYC area to be one of the last ones.

So NYC health is putting out false data? On 4/20 there were a total of 12 deaths reported in NYC. The website for the info has been posted previously. If you have other reliable stats please post them.

It's tragic that so many people have died where you work. How many people work where you work? When you say "where you work" do you really mean work for the same employer?

NYC probably has one of the highest percentage of people who have been infected of just about anywhere. That should go a long way toward herd immunity and a safe city. Much sooner than later.

[dilanesp]

We literally have no idea if any of the "herd immunity" hot takes being bandied about are true. There have already been reports of people getting the virus twice.

[Zman179]

So NYC health is putting out false data? On 4/20 there were a total of 12 deaths reported in NYC. The website for the info has been posted previously. If you have other reliable stats please post them.

It's tragic that so many people have died where you work. How many people work where you work? When you say "where you work" do you really mean work for the same employer?

NYC probably has one of the highest percentage of people who have been infected of just about anywhere. That should go a long way toward herd immunity and a safe city. Much sooner than later.

The vast majority of people downstate have been ignoring anything coming from Mayor DeBlasio and have been paying attention to what Governor Cuomo’s office says. One of the sites that is trusted is operated by New York State:

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no#/views/NYS%2dCOVID19%2dTracker/NYSDOHCOVID%2d19Tracker%2dMap?%253Aembed=yes&%253Atoolbar=no

I work for the NY subway. Our agency has about 25,000 workers and close to 7,000 of them have caught the virus. Every day in my Facebook feed I see a RIP post and it seriously depresses me.

Personally I believe that "herd immunity" is unproven. I hope that it really exists, but I’ve read how people in South Korea have become re-infected for a second time so who know if it really does exist? It is hard to tell because even the authorities don’t really know for sure. I am just hoping that I don’t endanger my life simply by going to work.

[Afleet]

The stats are wrong. Yesterday 474 people died in NY State due to COVID. 95% of all deaths in NYS come from NYC, Nassau, Suffolk and Westchester counties. Where I work, 80 of my co-workers have died from COVID, 7 of whom I worked with personally. Many of my coworkers go to work in fear that they will be next.

Many places might be able to return to quasi-normal within the next few months. Expect the NYC area to be one of the last ones.

that is horrible news, stay safe; need a cure fast

[burnsy]

Yeah Zman, it’s upstate too, not as bad but it’s around. Got an Email Monday that a co worker died. They offered grief concealing and the corporate statement in 4 pdf’s. It is depressing.

It’s pretty much gonna run it’s course in NY. I think things will be opening up around Memorial Day weekend or so. I don’t know if Belmont will bother unless they run without fans. You gotta believe concerts, parades and sporting events will be the last things to come back. Once they ramp up testing for anti bodies they can start models of herd immunity. They don’t know people are getting it twice or if it’s dormant for a while in the body. The numbers could be many times the reported cases. But gatherings of thousands will be the final phase. Right now you gotta be worried nothing happens this summer.......I am . :ThmbDown:

[RunForTheRoses]

The vast majority of people downstate have been ignoring anything coming from Mayor DeBlasio and have been paying attention to what Governor Cuomo’s office says. One of the sites that is trusted is operated by New York State:

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no#/views/NYS%2dCOVID19%2dTracker/NYSDOHCOVID%2d19Tracker%2dMap?%253Aembed=yes&%253Atoolbar=no

I work for the NY subway. Our agency has about 25,000 workers and close to 7,000 of them have caught the virus. Every day in my Facebook feed I see a RIP post and it seriously depresses me.

Personally I believe that "herd immunity" is unproven. I hope that it really exists, but I’ve read how people in South Korea have become re-infected for a second time so who know if it really does exist? It is hard to tell because even the authorities don’t really know for sure. I am just hoping that I don’t endanger my life simply by going to work.

That is crazy, I work in downtown NYC and my colleagues have been talking about when we will go back to work (we are telecommuting now) and we all agree the subways there is just no way to social distance. May 18th looks like the next possible day we could go back to "normal" but I could see it being longer than that for the city. Sorry to hear about all the losses. my father worked for the TA in East NY and 207th Street.

[AndyC]

The vast majority of people downstate have been ignoring anything coming from Mayor DeBlasio and have been paying attention to what Governor Cuomo’s office says. One of the sites that is trusted is operated by New York State:

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no#/views/NYS%2dCOVID19%2dTracker/NYSDOHCOVID%2d19Tracker%2dMap?%253Aembed=yes&%253Atoolbar=no

I work for the NY subway. Our agency has about 25,000 workers and close to 7,000 of them have caught the virus. Every day in my Facebook feed I see a RIP post and it seriously depresses me.

Personally I believe that "herd immunity" is unproven. I hope that it really exists, but I’ve read how people in South Korea have become re-infected for a second time so who know if it really does exist? It is hard to tell because even the authorities don’t really know for sure. I am just hoping that I don’t endanger my life simply by going to work.

The website has no info to support your comment about 95% of the 486 deaths being in NY City.

The stats are also very clear about who is most vulnerable to the effects of the virus. People who are unhealthy with compromised immune systems. Studies done in Italy showed that people who died had on average 3 co-morbidities be it T2D, heart disease, High blood pressure, asthma, etc.

The herd immunity in general has been proven many times. Proven for coronavirus? No, but many doctors are optimistic.

[Zman179]

The website has no info to support your comment about 95% of the 486 deaths being in NY City.

The stats are also very clear about who is most vulnerable to the effects of the virus. People who are unhealthy with compromised immune systems. Studies done in Italy showed that people who died had on average 3 co-morbidities be it T2D, heart disease, High blood pressure, asthma, etc.

The herd immunity in general has been proven many times. Proven for coronavirus? No, but many doctors are optimistic.

I meant to say that the vast majority are in NY City and its immediate suburbs; I stated previously that 95% of ALL state deaths are in NYC and its suburbs. FYI the NYC website is stating that recent data is incomplete due to reporting delays.

Nonetheless, as New Yorkers we are just trying to not get sick and to survive this pandemic. Heck I even have to wear a mask and gloves just to throw out my garbage because two families on my floor are COVID positive. Bottom line is that everyone here is in fear because you don’t know how your body is going to react to the virus unless you actually get it.

[Ocala Mike]

My bud has a trotter stabled at Pompano. Trainer told him the only reason the track is not racing is due to the casino not operating. As soon as Trump pulls the strings on puppet DeSantis, the state will reopen and the slots and trots will be on.

[biggestal99]

Yesterday NYC had 18 deaths from the corona virus down from a high of 533 only 12 days earlier. Based on the stats from NYC, being under 65 your chances of dying from the virus are a little less than .001. By keeping things shut down it becomes a punishment and certainly not protective of the people. When the stats start showing no deaths and few new infections the protests will be overwhelming. I expect that to happen soon.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page


Better to read the news,

The number is 569 not 18


https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-nyc-us-world-updates-latest-20200421-m5s3kos4rvavhhxb4azyl67ce4-story.html

Allan

[Zman179]

Yeah Zman, it’s upstate too, not as bad but it’s around. Got an Email Monday that a co worker died. They offered grief concealing and the corporate statement in 4 pdf’s. It is depressing.

It’s pretty much gonna run it’s course in NY. I think things will be opening up around Memorial Day weekend or so. I don’t know if Belmont will bother unless they run without fans. You gotta believe concerts, parades and sporting events will be the last things to come back. Once they ramp up testing for anti bodies they can start models of herd immunity. They don’t know people are getting it twice or if it’s dormant for a while in the body. The numbers could be many times the reported cases. But gatherings of thousands will be the final phase. Right now you gotta be worried nothing happens this summer.......I am . :ThmbDown:

I know, it is terrible.

As far as racing, if it does resume this spring at Belmont you can bet there will be no fans there. And as far as Saratoga goes, I could see racing remaining at Belmont for the entire summer if the downstate COVID cases do not come down drastically for two reasons:

1) The amount of people needed to move upstate and back down again would be difficult to pass muster with health officials, especially since racing is not considered an essential business

2) Local upstate health departments want people coming from downstate to self-quarantine for 14 days. Right now it hasn’t been pushed, but I could see a major problem with local authorities if a bunch of horsemen try to go from Aqueduct/Belmont to Saratoga.

I strongly believe that upstate will open before downstate does, but I also envision that downstaters will essentially become unwelcome upstate in the beginning.

[AndyC]

Better to read the news,

The number is 569 not 18


https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-nyc-us-world-updates-latest-20200421-m5s3kos4rvavhhxb4azyl67ce4-story.html

Allan

The New York City government website lays out on a daily basis when the deaths occurred. Both the news article you cited and the government website agree on the total deaths but there seems to be a math issue with the NY Daily News as to when those deaths occurred.

[Zman179]

That is crazy, I work in downtown NYC and my colleagues have been talking about when we will go back to work (we are telecommuting now) and we all agree the subways there is just no way to social distance. May 18th looks like the next possible day we could go back to "normal" but I could see it being longer than that for the city. Sorry to hear about all the losses. my father worked for the TA in East NY and 207th Street.

We might not get back to normal until the fall (hopefully), all we can do is try to stay safe! Did your father work for Car Equipment?

[Zman179]

The New York City government website lays out on a daily basis when the deaths occurred. Both the news article you cited and the government website agree on the total deaths but there seems to be a math issue with the NY Daily News as to when those deaths occurred.

You cannot put faith into the city data until they properly update it. I would estimate the last three days of city data are incomplete.

[AndyC]

I meant to say that the vast majority are in NY City and its immediate suburbs; I stated previously that 95% of ALL state deaths are in NYC and its suburbs. FYI the NYC website is stating that recent data is incomplete due to reporting delays.

Nonetheless, as New Yorkers we are just trying to not get sick and to survive this pandemic. Heck I even have to wear a mask and gloves just to throw out my garbage because two families on my floor are COVID positive. Bottom line is that everyone here is in fear because you don’t know how your body is going to react to the virus unless you actually get it.

I am in no way trying to downplay the horrible effects that the virus has had on people either directly or indirectly. The pain and suffering has been real.

The question comes down to what should we do going forward and when should we do it? My comments have been to opine through a look at the stats that NYC is way ahead of the curve and should be looking to open very soon albeit with the vulnerable still on the sidelines.

[AndyC]

You cannot put faith into the city data until they properly update it. I would estimate the last three days of city data are incomplete.

It looks like the 20th was updated. It showed a decrease in deaths from 177 to 96 from the 19th to the 20th and also a decrease in hospitalizations from 165 to 26.

The key number to look at is the new hospitalizations which have been dropping consistently for quite a few days. That is a leading indicator of what to expect in the increase or decrease of fatalities going forward.

[Zman179]

The question comes down to what should we do going forward and when should we do it? My comments have been to opine through a look at the stats that NYC is way ahead of the curve and should be looking to open very soon albeit with the vulnerable still on the sidelines.

NYC is nowhere near opening up. Other cities they are close, upstate NY is close, we are not. We have too many people that are sick and too many that haven’t been tested. Public transportation has been the biggest cause of the outbreak, so if we start opening up too soon with so many people being asymptomatic, we’ll be in the crosshairs for a second outbreak. On Monday there were 1,308 new hospitalizations in New York State, so there’s no way that I can believe that approximately 98% of those came from outside the five boroughs. I believe they are down, but not THAT far down.

The Daily Mail has written a good piece on our current state of affairs:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8241417/NY-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-hit-lowest-number-March-25.html

[dilanesp]

I am in no way trying to downplay the horrible effects that the virus has had on people either directly or indirectly. The pain and suffering has been real.

The question comes down to what should we do going forward and when should we do it? My comments have been to opine through a look at the stats that NYC is way ahead of the curve and should be looking to open very soon albeit with the vulnerable still on the sidelines.

You got a number of things wrong, always on the optimistic side, earlier on.

Policymakers have to err on the side of caution. A lot more people could get killed if they don't.

[PaceAdvantage]

You got a number of things wrong, always on the optimistic side, earlier on.

Policymakers have to err on the side of caution. A lot more people could get killed if they don't.It's not optimistic. It's realistic.

People consumed by fear have lost their sense of reality...thus, reality seems like optimism to them.

[ReplayRandall]

Has Capo Cuomo from the United States of New York, weighed in with his opinion on the status of when NYRA's tracks will reopen?

[pandy]

I think people will be up in arms if there is no Saratoga meet. I'm not from NY or the area but you are starting to see more and more protests across the country. People are not going to stay indoors during the summer especially after being indoors all winter


I feel the same way. There may be a little class warfare here, too. Obviously the rich and elite are going to want to shut down longer. But the governor's have a tricky situation on their hands because they know that they can't stay closed down forever without social unrest the likes of which we haven't seen in a long time, not to mention catastrophic economic collapse.

[Hambletonian]

That is crazy, I work in downtown NYC and my colleagues have been talking about when we will go back to work (we are telecommuting now) and we all agree the subways there is just no way to social distance. May 18th looks like the next possible day we could go back to "normal" but I could see it being longer than that for the city. Sorry to hear about all the losses. my father worked for the TA in East NY and 207th Street.

Same here, and I have a daily 4.5 hour roundtrip bus ride commute. No social distancing on the bus, the subway, or the train. Just not possible. And if you want to drive in, there are very few parking garages.

Frankly, even getting back all the commuting hours, I am fricking worn out teleworking. When you work in the office you come and go. Not so much at home. And the operator of my bus line has suspended all operations, and who knows how long it will take to ramp it back up.

I can see some relaxing of the restrictions in June...but I imagine if you commute to NYC and work in an office...working life is not getting back to normal any time soon.

[PaceAdvantage]

not to mention catastrophic economic collapse.Oh, that's already happened. They just haven't talked about it much on the news....that's the next phase of fear.

[Tom]

Better to read the news,

The number is 569 not 18


https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-nyc-us-world-updates-latest-20200421-m5s3kos4rvavhhxb4azyl67ce4-story.html

Allan

You are saying 4/21 was the WORST day so far in NYC?
I think the Daily News if not the reliable one here.

[dilanesp]

Same here, and I have a daily 4.5 hour roundtrip bus ride commute. No social distancing on the bus, the subway, or the train. Just not possible. And if you want to drive in, there are very few parking garages.

Frankly, even getting back all the commuting hours, I am fricking worn out teleworking. When you work in the office you come and go. Not so much at home. And the operator of my bus line has suspended all operations, and who knows how long it will take to ramp it back up.

I can see some relaxing of the restrictions in June...but I imagine if you commute to NYC and work in an office...working life is not getting back to normal any time soon.

This is what I have been hearing from everyone I know in New York.

"Reopening" NYC (1) is not going to happen as long as there's still large numbers of new infections or deaths (even if those numbers are declining); and (2) is going to be a slow, arduous process when it does occur because a lot of people are going to be very afraid to take public transportation, walk the streets, or patronize stores.

And I get the feeling this is sort of an abstract issue to a lot of folks who are calling for reopening. To reopen, you need trust. It isn't just a decree from Gov. Cuomo. You need people to actually believe that they can safely go about their business. And when 11,000 people have died in your city, that's not something that is going to come quickly.

Finally, the notion that New Yorkers are going to rise up and revolt against restrictions seems completely off base to me. That may happen in places where there haven't been a lot of deaths, but New Yorkers are HAUNTED by what has happened. It's already more than three 9/11's, and it took New Yorkers years to process 9/11.

[AndyC]

You got a number of things wrong, always on the optimistic side, earlier on.

Policymakers have to err on the side of caution. A lot more people could get killed if they don't.

Surely you're familiar with the term all cause mortality? How many people will die because of the shutdown or suffer serious medical consequences due to stress? Throw on top of that the daunting task of having to rebuild their lives financially. If they want to err on the side of caution they would want to open up ASAP.

[RunForTheRoses]

You cannot put faith into the city data until they properly update it. I would estimate the last three days of city data are incomplete.

I know he worked in the store room but that's about it. He wasn't the most communicative Dad as far as what he did for a living but he did teach me how to read the Racing Form.

[RunForTheRoses]

Same here, and I have a daily 4.5 hour roundtrip bus ride commute. No social distancing on the bus, the subway, or the train. Just not possible. And if you want to drive in, there are very few parking garages.

Frankly, even getting back all the commuting hours, I am fricking worn out teleworking. When you work in the office you come and go. Not so much at home. And the operator of my bus line has suspended all operations, and who knows how long it will take to ramp it back up.

I can see some relaxing of the restrictions in June...but I imagine if you commute to NYC and work in an office...working life is not getting back to normal any time soon.

For 13 out of my 18 commuter years I had a 5 hour roundtrip commute on bus, really sucked the life out of me but really had no other option. I wanted to wear a mask then, fools coughing and sneezing and not covering their mouth. Now, about 3.25 train and path.

I know what you mean about telecommuting. I still like it but there is some getting used to. I used to walk a lot in the morning, on lunch and evening, now I usually go straight to the computer and essentially sit there all day. I try to get a walk in the evening but I'm going to try and get more morning walks in.

[burnsy]

This is what I have been hearing from everyone I know in New York.

"Reopening" NYC (1) is not going to happen as long as there's still large numbers of new infections or deaths (even if those numbers are declining); and (2) is going to be a slow, arduous process when it does occur because a lot of people are going to be very afraid to take public transportation, walk the streets, or patronize stores.

And I get the feeling this is sort of an abstract issue to a lot of folks who are calling for reopening. To reopen, you need trust. It isn't just a decree from Gov. Cuomo. You need people to actually believe that they can safely go about their business. And when 11,000 people have died in your city, that's not something that is going to come quickly.

Finally, the notion that New Yorkers are going to rise up and revolt against restrictions seems completely off base to me. That may happen in places where there haven't been a lot of deaths, but New Yorkers are HAUNTED by what has happened. It's already more than three 9/11's, and it took New Yorkers years to process 9/11.

Totally agree, and I’m upstate in Saratoga. It’s up here , not as bad as NYC but everyone up here knows someone that almost died or died. And many have ties to the city. The protests here are minimal so far. People are not all out scared but they are following the guidelines for the most part. Even if the track opens, that’s a big “ if” , how many people will show up? I’ll be there I already have my passes. The economic tragedy of this is going to be on the tourist and food service (bar) industry. I think most industries will bounce back. The lingering disaster is going to be travel, leisure and anything involving crowds in close proximity. These states with all the protesters haven’t got the full taste yet. It’s like I said from the start. It’s all fun and games til it hits close to home or the heart. People here are in no hurry to pal around crowds of people. These places opening early and the protesters. I hope I’m
wrong but the ease with which this thing spreads...... they could get a dose of NY reality. Some people still think it’s a joke but where it’s hit hard, most know better. I’d go in July but there are people that I know won’t show up . Older people and sick people are not going to be in a hurry. Half the country has sugar or high blood pressure

[PaceAdvantage]

This is what I have been hearing from everyone I know in New York.

"Reopening" NYC (1) is not going to happen as long as there's still large numbers of new infections or deaths (even if those numbers are declining); and (2) is going to be a slow, arduous process when it does occur because a lot of people are going to be very afraid to take public transportation, walk the streets, or patronize stores.

And I get the feeling this is sort of an abstract issue to a lot of folks who are calling for reopening. To reopen, you need trust. It isn't just a decree from Gov. Cuomo. You need people to actually believe that they can safely go about their business. And when 11,000 people have died in your city, that's not something that is going to come quickly.

Finally, the notion that New Yorkers are going to rise up and revolt against restrictions seems completely off base to me. That may happen in places where there haven't been a lot of deaths, but New Yorkers are HAUNTED by what has happened. It's already more than three 9/11's, and it took New Yorkers years to process 9/11.You are 100% correct. Nobody can force anybody to go anywhere (well, they can...but that's neither here nor there)...so what does it matter when they open up?

You act as if people are TOO STUPID to protect or care for themselves.

Again, NOBODY IS FORCED TO LEAVE THEIR HOMES.

Rest assured, the fear has been instilled...and no matter when they open or who says it is OK to resume your life, there will be TONS of people who won't be going anywhere anytime soon.

And that's why we are so much more ****ed than anyone dare says at this moment.

[Elkchester Road]

You are 100% correct. Nobody can force anybody to go anywhere (well, they can...but that's neither here nor there)...so what does it matter when they open up?

You act as if people are TOO STUPID to protect or care for themselves.

Again, NOBODY IS FORCED TO LEAVE THEIR HOMES.

Rest assured, the fear has been instilled...and no matter when they open or who says it is OK to resume your life, there will be TONS of people who won't be going anywhere anytime soon.

And that's why we are so much more ****ed than anyone dare says at this moment.

You speak truth, PA.

I live in a town of about 7,500 outside of Lexington, KY...and a lot of people here are genuinely freaked out. The Government and the Media have done a number on the population of this Country.

[JustRalph]

Close enough - RIDERS UP!:coffee:

Just great......really LOL

[dilanesp]

You speak truth, PA.

I live in a town of about 7,500 outside of Lexington, KY...and a lot of people here are genuinely freaked out. The Government and the Media have done a number on the population of this Country.

One of the problems with this sort of reasoning is WHY would elites, the government, and media want to do this to people? This thing has cost elites a ton of money in the markets, threatens the careers of a lot of government officials, and has seriously harmed the media which now can't sell advertising and is severely limited in creating new content.

If anything, there was every incentive to UNDERPLAY this. The only possible explanation for why "the Government and the Media" would do something like this is that it actually needed to be done.

[Elkchester Road]

One of the problems with this sort of reasoning is WHY would elites, the government, and media want to do this to people? This thing has cost elites a ton of money in the markets, threatens the careers of a lot of government officials, and has seriously harmed the media which now can't sell advertising and is severely limited in creating new content.

If anything, there was every incentive to UNDERPLAY this. The only possible explanation for why "the Government and the Media" would do something like this is that it actually needed to be done.

One word...POWER. We live in a world where people do a lot of bad stuff...just because they can. It is, in my opinion, the worst effect of everything trickling up. This is what the powerful are left to do.

[PaceAdvantage]

One of the problems with this sort of reasoning is WHY would elites, the government, and media want to do this to people? This thing has cost elites a ton of money in the markets, threatens the careers of a lot of government officials, and has seriously harmed the media which now can't sell advertising and is severely limited in creating new content.

If anything, there was every incentive to UNDERPLAY this. The only possible explanation for why "the Government and the Media" would do something like this is that it actually needed to be done.You talk as if we are saying this is some grand conspiracy? lol

Who said that?

The media has ALWAYS utilized FEAR...FEAR sells....media pushes FEAR...politicians push extreme measures to cover their asses based on media and also MEDICALLY induced FEAR...and you get yourself an out-of-control situation that nobody will be able to pull back from anytime soon.

It's an absolute disaster, economically. A shock to the ENTIRE WORLD economy...which has NEVER happened before....ever....

Nobody has any CLUE how this will all play out.

[dilanesp]

You talk as if we are saying this is some grand conspiracy? lol

Who said that?

The media has ALWAYS utilized FEAR...FEAR sells....media pushes FEAR...politicians push extreme measures to cover their asses based on media and also MEDICALLY induced FEAR...and you get yourself an out-of-control situation that nobody will be able to pull back from anytime soon.

It's an absolute disaster, economically. A shock to the ENTIRE WORLD economy...which has NEVER happened before....ever....

Nobody has any CLUE how this will all play out.

PA, nothing is "selling". It's true that news shows (and ONLY news shows) have had increased ratings, but advertising revenue is ridiculously down because advertising isn't worth it in a shut down economy. Circulation of magazines and newspapers, down. Media companies are unable to film new content due to distancing rules. And the entire big money enterprise that is sports, including all the sports media, such as ESPN and Fox Sports channels around the country, is down.

The corporations that operate the mass media would want to do whatever is necessary to avoid a situation like this. This is just awful for their bottom line.

No theory that is based on the media stoking fear to make money works here.

[JustRalph]

Every day I find myself leaning further and further into the crazy camp.

I just cannot believe that the oil market events and this virus happened at the same time.

China is in a trade war with us, that they had been losing it seems. This crazy virus gets out of a lab and starts growing and changing everywhere it goes.

Russia and the Saudi’s push up oil production to levels that will kill the market, yet they are players in the same market.

Just as this virus starts to wind down, I look for a terrorist attack on our soil.

It’s just me.......hanging around consuming extra calories and killing brain cells

[clicknow]

The only protests you might see here are local Saratoga County residents knowing that their region will be flooded by downstaters come the summer. They have already let it be known that, currently, downstaters aren’t welcome due to fears that we will cause a rapid increase in infections.

We don't know what will happen by July; hopefully the numbers will be flat as a doornail by then.

But if you're a county like Saratoga with under 300 covid positives right now, looking at downstate counties with 28k, 25K, 43K, 31K positives, you kinda can't blame them for not wanting to be flooded with tourists from downstate. At the present time I can't really hold it against them for thinking this way, can you? Seems like a pretty normal human response to me.

[Zman179]

You talk as if we are saying this is some grand conspiracy? lol

Who said that?

The media has ALWAYS utilized FEAR...FEAR sells....media pushes FEAR...politicians push extreme measures to cover their asses based on media and also MEDICALLY induced FEAR...and you get yourself an out-of-control situation that nobody will be able to pull back from anytime soon.

It's an absolute disaster, economically. A shock to the ENTIRE WORLD economy...which has NEVER happened before....ever....

Nobody has any CLUE how this will all play out.

That is why the media will create fear in order to make ratings and/or drive advertising revenue. The media has an agenda that is not in any of our best interests, yet we need them in order to police certain aspects of society.

[Zman179]

We don't know what will happen by July; hopefully the numbers will be flat as a doornail by then.

But if you're a county like Saratoga with under 300 covid positives right now, looking at downstate counties with 28k, 25K, 43K, 31K positives, you kinda can't blame them for not wanting to be flooded with tourists from downstate. At the present time I can't really hold it against them for thinking this way, can you? Seems like a pretty normal human response to me.

I cannot blame them not one bit; I cannot lie when I say that I would probably have the same stance.

[AndyC]

I cannot blame them not one bit; I cannot lie when I say that I would probably have the same stance.

In Cuomo's press conference today he said that testing showed that 21.2% of people in NYC had been infected and upstate the percentage was 3.6. Give it another 3-4 weeks and NYC may be the safest place in the US for avoiding the coronavirus.

During the President's press conference there was results presented showing that the virus does not last long outdoors and in the sunlight. And also that higher humidity and temperature were good for diminishing the virus.

Does anybody know of a place I could go and be outside, get plenty of sunshine, and where it probably will be hot and humid?

[Elkchester Road]

In Cuomo's press conference today he said that testing showed that 21.2% of people in NYC had been infected and upstate the percentage was 3.6. Give it another 3-4 weeks and NYC may be the safest place in the US for avoiding the coronavirus.

During the President's press conference there was results presented showing that the virus does not last long outdoors and in the sunlight. And also that higher humidity and temperature were good for diminishing the virus.

Does anybody know of a place I could go and be outside, get plenty of sunshine, and where it probably will be hot and humid?

Not trying to be funny, AndyC...but in 3-4 weeks...possibly New York City. :)

[dilanesp]

In Cuomo's press conference today he said that testing showed that 21.2% of people in NYC had been infected and upstate the percentage was 3.6. Give it another 3-4 weeks and NYC may be the safest place in the US for avoiding the coronavirus.

During the President's press conference there was results presented showing that the virus does not last long outdoors and in the sunlight. And also that higher humidity and temperature were good for diminishing the virus.

Does anybody know of a place I could go and be outside, get plenty of sunshine, and where it probably will be hot and humid?

Again, you say these things as fact when we don't know yet. Yes, it is POSSIBLE that the virus doesn't last long in sunlight. But we are far from knowing that. There's been outbreaks in Florida and Ecuador, which are both warm.

Tens of thousands have died in the US, and policymakers have to err on the side of caution. Absent actual proof of the virus becoming inactive in warm weather, we can't assume that and risk opening back up, especially since the public would be afraid to congregate anyway.

[ReplayRandall]

Again, you say these things as fact when we don't know yet. Yes, it is POSSIBLE that the virus doesn't last long in sunlight. But we are far from knowing that. There's been outbreaks in Florida and Ecuador, which are both warm.

Tens of thousands have died in the US, and policymakers have to err on the side of caution. Absent actual proof of the virus becoming inactive in warm weather, we can't assume that and risk opening back up, especially since the public would be afraid to congregate anyway.It's cool to be contrarian and all, but come on. This is either trolling or a horrible opinion. Or both.

[Mulerider]

Does anybody know of a place I could go and be outside, get plenty of sunshine, and where it probably will be hot and humid?

Anywhere in the eastern half of Texas. Another 30 days and you'll have more heat and humidity than you can say grace over. And it's just getting started, lol.

[dilanesp]

It's cool to be contrarian and all, but come on. This is either trolling or a horrible opinion. Or both.

You have literally been completely wrong about this entire crisis for two months. You have no standing to say I am trolling.

[ReplayRandall]

You have literally been completely wrong about this entire crisis for two months. You have no standing to say I am trolling.Funny stuff Dilan, you are completely clueless and know next to nothing on a great many subjects, yet your condescending arrogant attitude continues, no matter the facts and overwhelming evidence shown to you. Your rebuttals and nonsensical replies fool few on this site, if any.....

You and HCAP are the only two posters on this site that are incapable of admitting when they're wrong, which is a considerable amount of the time. I doubt you are a happy or well rounded individual, but persist spewing utter nonsense for the sake of feeling relevant and noticed....It is quite sad.

I will be putting you on IGNORE, as it is the merciful thing for me to do.

[AndyC]

Again, you say these things as fact when we don't know yet. Yes, it is POSSIBLE that the virus doesn't last long in sunlight. But we are far from knowing that. There's been outbreaks in Florida and Ecuador, which are both warm.

Tens of thousands have died in the US, and policymakers have to err on the side of caution. Absent actual proof of the virus becoming inactive in warm weather, we can't assume that and risk opening back up, especially since the public would be afraid to congregate anyway.

So you are calling into question the information presented at today's press conference? Is scientist on your resume too?

Who said the virus becomes inactive in warm weather? The information presented said that humidity and warm weather weakened the virus.

So we can't risk opening up beaches, golf courses, hiking trails, swimming pools, etc? The virus is predominantly spread in an indoor setting where it survives many hours longer than outside. You can choose to err on the side of being an ignoramus and lock yourself indoors or you can go get nature's vaccination by getting out in the sun. Low Vitamin D levels is very common in the hospitalized coronavirus patients.

[AndyC]

Anywhere in the eastern half of Texas. Another 30 days and you'll have more heat and humidity than you can say grace over. And it's just getting started, lol.

I not looking to be punished, I was thinking that there are plenty of racetracks that would have all the right ingredients for staying away from a virus infection.

[dilanesp]

Funny stuff Dilan, you are completely clueless and know next to nothing on a great many subjects, yet your condescending arrogant attitude continues, no matter the facts and overwhelming evidence shown to you. Your rebuttals and nonsensical replies fool few on this site, if any.....

You and HCAP are the only two posters on this site that are incapable of admitting when they're wrong, which is a considerable amount of the time. I doubt you are a happy or well rounded individual, but persist spewing utter nonsense for the sake of feeling relevant and noticed....It is quite sad.

I will be putting you on IGNORE, as it is the merciful thing for me to do.

All I ever do here is post summaries of what scientists say. I am not an expert on virology. But I am following what experts say.

Everything in this post is projection. You are the one saying you know more than scientists, and you are the one who needs to admit at least 10 whopping wrong posts on the coronavirus.

And the only reason you are ignoring me is because you can't confront the truth on this issue. That says a lot about you and nothing about me.

[AndyC]

https://www.grassrootshealth.net/blog/first-data-published-covid-19-severity-vitamin-d-levels/

People deficient in Vitamin D are at greater risk with a coronavirus infection than those who aren't deficient. One of the best reasons to open up and let people get outside and get adequate sunshine.

[PaceAdvantage]

All I ever do here is post summaries of what scientists say. I am not an expert on virology. But I am following what experts say.

Everything in this post is projection. You are the one saying you know more than scientists, and you are the one who needs to admit at least 10 whopping wrong posts on the coronavirus.

And the only reason you are ignoring me is because you can't confront the truth on this issue. That says a lot about you and nothing about me.And any of the scientists or MDs who dare to differ with the doctrine are summarily dismissed and scorned.

Interesting how that works.

[classhandicapper]

https://www.grassrootshealth.net/blog/first-data-published-covid-19-severity-vitamin-d-levels/

People deficient in Vitamin D are at greater risk with a coronavirus infection than those who aren't deficient. One of the best reasons to open up and let people get outside and get adequate sunshine.

I don't know if this will turn out to be useful or not, but this is one of those no downside pieces of information I'm willing to act on.

I've been supplementing with D3 (and C and A) for a few weeks now.

There's no downside and if it helps, that's great.

To me it's kind of like a mask. I don't care if a mask is only 50% effective, I'm wearing one. If a person near me is wearing one also, it's 75% effective. And eve if I get some virus, the viral load will be lower.

The government and medical community was insane for not recommending that everyone wear masks right from the start. There's no downside and potentially huge upside. It's a damn free roll.

[westernmassbob]

I don't know if this will turn out to be useful or not, but this is one of those no downside pieces of information I'm willing to act on.

I've been supplementing with D3 (and C and A) for a few weeks now.

There's no downside and if it helps, that's great.

To me it's kind of like a mask. I don't care if a mask is only 50% effective, I'm wearing one. If a person near me is wearing one also, it's 75% effective. And eve if I get some virus, the viral load will be lower.

The government and medical community was insane for not recommending that everyone wear masks right from the start. There's no downside and potentially huge upside. It's a damn free roll.


I agree ....sort of. The problem from the start masks were nowhere to be found. Even today as I type this masks sell out in my area as soon as a place gets any. Employers have started to supply workers with them ...finally... Oh and just using a scarf etc is basically not effective.

[Spalding No!]

The government and medical community was insane for not recommending that everyone wear masks right from the start. There's no downside and potentially huge upside. It's a damn free roll.
There is some downside in that a mask can serve as a fomite that can harbor the virus for several days if some happens to land on the mask. That's why proper wearing, removal, cleaning, and disposal are paramount.

[dilanesp]

And any of the scientists or MDs who dare to differ with the doctrine are summarily dismissed and scorned.

Interesting how that works.

Really? As far as I know, the scientific journals are open for any scientists or MD's who want to make arguments that counter the scientific consensus.

Actually, the extent of scientific consensus on this is pretty amazing. Yes there are some differences in degree among the projections, but there's literally no dissenting epidemiologists out there saying we don't need to distance, we can go ahead and have large gatherings, we know that herd immunity will work, we know that the virus will become inactive in warmer weather, the virus is not going to resurge, etc.

These are things being said by the same sorts of folks who claimed this was all a media creation, a conspiracy, something we never should have closed down businesses for in the first place. But they are getting literally no backup from scientists.

A good point of comparison is this- I grew up during the time when there were still scientists who disputed the consensus on cigarette smoking causing lung cancer. Literally, there were more dissenting scientists on that debate than there are on this one.

But as I said, if a scientist has decent evidence that decades of scientific consensus is wrong about these things, and can write a paper that survives peer review, the journals are open. Nobody's silencing them. It's simply that there really aren't any such scientists. These claims are all being made by non-scientists.

[dilanesp]

I agree ....sort of. The problem from the start masks were nowhere to be found. Even today as I type this masks sell out in my area as soon as a place gets any. Employers have started to supply workers with them ...finally... Oh and just using a scarf etc is basically not effective.

And in a situation where there was a shortage of masks, announcing that everyone needed to wear one was likely to both sow a panic and take masks away from essential personnel who needed them.

I suspect one thing that comes out of this that everyone across the political spectrum is going to agree on is we blew it on our supply chain on this stuff for decades. The supplies we need to deal with pandemics need to be made here, in the United States, even if it isn't the cheapest place to make them. We can't be relying on China and other foreign suppliers in this sort of situation.

[dilanesp]

If you are interested in what the actual expert consensus is on where we stand now, read this thread. It's not really political; just a bunch of scientific consensus.

https://twitter.com/propublica/status/1253351877787467779

[PaceAdvantage]

Really? As far as I know, the scientific journals are open for any scientists or MD's who want to make arguments that counter the scientific consensus.

Actually, the extent of scientific consensus on this is pretty amazing. Yes there are some differences in degree among the projections, but there's literally no dissenting epidemiologists out there saying we don't need to distance, we can go ahead and have large gatherings, we know that herd immunity will work, we know that the virus will become inactive in warmer weather, the virus is not going to resurge, etc.

These are things being said by the same sorts of folks who claimed this was all a media creation, a conspiracy, something we never should have closed down businesses for in the first place. But they are getting literally no backup from scientists.

A good point of comparison is this- I grew up during the time when there were still scientists who disputed the consensus on cigarette smoking causing lung cancer. Literally, there were more dissenting scientists on that debate than there are on this one.

But as I said, if a scientist has decent evidence that decades of scientific consensus is wrong about these things, and can write a paper that survives peer review, the journals are open. Nobody's silencing them. It's simply that there really aren't any such scientists. These claims are all being made by non-scientists.This has nothing to do with the usual yarn of conspiracy theories and the like.

These are actual epidemiologists, MDs and researchers/academics who have led quite successful and praiseworthy careers....not Qanon folks or Trump ass kissers....

But you aren't aware of them for the interesting reasons I've mentioned already.

It's ok. Try not to be too scared of second opinions. They just might save your life one day.

[classhandicapper]

There is some downside in that a mask can serve as a fomite that can harbor the virus for several days if some happens to land on the mask. That's why proper wearing, removal, cleaning, and disposal are paramount.

I hear you.

I think some people are reusing disposable masks many times or exposing their hands and then touching their masks. So on some level we have to prevent people from doing foolish things, but masks almost certainly help.

[classhandicapper]

And in a situation where there was a shortage of masks, announcing that everyone needed to wear one was likely to both sow a panic and take masks away from essential personnel who needed them.


I understand that argument, but I'm not buying that it was more responsible to lie to people. What they did near me was to take them off the shelf at the local pharmacies and put a note out saying you couldn't order them online because they were reserved for healthcare providers. I could live with that. But then at least tell people even a scarf, handkerchief, dishcloth etc... mask is better than nothing until the supply is available. I still have masks on order from a month ago I am waiting for, but in the mean time I use what I can get my hands on. I managed to scrounge up a few emergency ones for necessary trips to a drugstore or supermarket. The govt and healthcare industry was many weeks late in telling us the truth on that or too dumb to know.

[AndyC]

........But as I said, if a scientist has decent evidence that decades of scientific consensus is wrong about these things, and can write a paper that survives peer review, the journals are open. Nobody's silencing them. It's simply that there really aren't any such scientists. These claims are all being made by non-scientists.

Scientific consensus does not make a fact. There is not decades of science supporting anything to do with this coronavirus. You won't find too many peer reviewed papers on what is the best way to do anything with the virus simply due to time. There are many scientists claiming that we should end the lock down.

[AndyC]

Not trying to be funny, AndyC...but in 3-4 weeks...possibly New York City. :)

Why not NYC? In 3-4 weeks it might be over 50% of NYC citizens that have been infected and recovered from the virus.

[alhattab]

For 13 out of my 18 commuter years I had a 5 hour roundtrip commute on bus, really sucked the life out of me but really had no other option. I wanted to wear a mask then, fools coughing and sneezing and not covering their mouth. Now, about 3.25 train and path.

I know what you mean about telecommuting. I still like it but there is some getting used to. I used to walk a lot in the morning, on lunch and evening, now I usually go straight to the computer and essentially sit there all day. I try to get a walk in the evening but I'm going to try and get more morning walks in.

I had a day like you described today. Literally flat out from 7:30 to 5:30 with no movement hardly at all. Rain didn't help. In the office you move around- you go to a meeting, walk down the street for lunch, etc. You have to try to replicate that at home but the walks to take a piss and get lunch are too short! I started getting edgy late in the day.

[Tom]

I watched a movie to take my mind of it all.

Groundhog Day! :eek::eek::eek:

[Clocker]

Lots of discussion here about masks. My readings indicate that most of the masks on the market, or that were on the market, are not effective against these viruses. Amazon had some recently, and says it will have more in a few days. About $40 for 50 masks. And the Amazon product description says "This mask is not intended for medical use, and not proven to reduce the transmission of disease."
https://www.amazon.com/Face-Mask-Pack-of-50/dp/B086KMYNSS/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2USEL3ECS57ET&dchild=1&keywords=masks+for+germ+protection&qid=1587773235&sprefix=masks%2Caps%2C228&sr=8-1

The CDC (Centers for Disease Control) do recommend that kind of mask, or a simple cloth covering, for the general public, not because they protect the wearer, but because they prevent people who may have the virus and do not know it from transmitting it to others. They also say that the N95 respirators are the only effective prevention, and are trying to limit the short supply to health workers.

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/personal-protective-equipment-infection-control/n95-respirators-and-surgical-masks-face-masks

[Elkchester Road]

I don't know if this will turn out to be useful or not, but this is one of those no downside pieces of information I'm willing to act on.

I've been supplementing with D3 (and C and A) for a few weeks now.

There's no downside and if it helps, that's great.

To me it's kind of like a mask. I don't care if a mask is only 50% effective, I'm wearing one. If a person near me is wearing one also, it's 75% effective. And eve if I get some virus, the viral load will be lower.

The government and medical community was insane for not recommending that everyone wear masks right from the start. There's no downside and potentially huge upside. It's a damn free roll.

All very good points. :)

[dilanesp]

Scientific consensus does not make a fact. There is not decades of science supporting anything to do with this coronavirus. You won't find too many peer reviewed papers on what is the best way to do anything with the virus simply due to time. There are many scientists claiming that we should end the lock down.

1. While scientific consensus does not make a fact, it is a lot more likely to get you to facts than people who go around saying "the scientists might be wrong!".

2. Yes there actually is decades of science. You see, one of the ways science works is by gathering data from previous pandemics. Scientists even have ways of determining which viral outbreaks are most relevant here.

At any rate, you are holding scientists to a standard you don't hold yourself to. Scientists are apparently required to produce data about "this" virus, but when you make arguments about other viruses having herd immunity and being less virulent in warmer weather, as you did in this thread, that's apparently OK.

[dilanesp]

This has nothing to do with the usual yarn of conspiracy theories and the like.

These are actual epidemiologists, MDs and researchers/academics who have led quite successful and praiseworthy careers....not Qanon folks or Trump ass kissers....

But you aren't aware of them for the interesting reasons I've mentioned already.

It's ok. Try not to be too scared of second opinions. They just might save your life one day.

I invite you to link to any peer reviewed scientific papers that you think support your views. I will happily read them.

[Elkchester Road]

Why not NYC? In 3-4 weeks it might be over 50% of NYC citizens that have been infected and recovered from the virus.

:ThmbUp:

[AndyC]

1. While scientific consensus does not make a fact, it is a lot more likely to get you to facts than people who go around saying "the scientists might be wrong!".

2. Yes there actually is decades of science. You see, one of the ways science works is by gathering data from previous pandemics. Scientists even have ways of determining which viral outbreaks are most relevant here.

At any rate, you are holding scientists to a standard you don't hold yourself to. Scientists are apparently required to produce data about "this" virus, but when you make arguments about other viruses having herd immunity and being less virulent in warmer weather, as you did in this thread, that's apparently OK.



What has the data told us from the other pandemics? Tell me how it is being applied now.

We have decades of science yet have know idea how to stop the spread of this virus. What most doctors have learned is that it is a learn-as-you-go situation. There is new information being presented each day. There is no one protocol being used everywhere.

What standard have I held scientists to? I have come to no conclusions on my own. There has been studies showing how effective UV rays are at killing the virus. The study showed that the virus is less virulent in humidity. It was suggested that because high UV and humidity are usually found with heat that heat may also be a mitigating factor. Herd immunity has been suggested by many scientists.

What isn't OK to me is keeping the country shut down. The overwhelming majority of people have and will have no problem with being infected by the virus. Logic should tell you that these people should be let out of lock down to resume life. Logic should also tell you that high risk people should remain in a lock down state until their safety can be assured.

[PaceAdvantage]

I invite you to link to any peer reviewed scientific papers that you think support your views. I will happily read them.Goalpost=moved.

In the specific case of COVID-19, I invite you to do the same.

[lex]

I hear you.

I think some people are reusing disposable masks many times or exposing their hands and then touching their masks. So on some level we have to prevent people from doing foolish things, but masks almost certainly help.

I don't think anyone was being lied to on the topic of masks. What you put here is the actual reason. They know people aren't going to wear these things properly and could possibly even make things worse.

Masks have always been to protect the people that aren't wearing them. If you go to a doctors office during flu season and you have symptoms they ask you to wear a mask, not everyone in the office or waiting room.

[westernmassbob]

How far in advance do you think a decision will be made to cancel or confirm a Saratoga meet this year.? Given the fluid situation I think it would be cost effective to all parties to just cancel the Saratoga meet. Also if people won’t be allowed in to watch the races at their own risk then please cancel the meet.

[classhandicapper]

Lots of discussion here about masks. My readings indicate that most of the masks on the market, or that were on the market, are not effective against these viruses. Amazon had some recently, and says it will have more in a few days. About $40 for 50 masks. And the Amazon product description says "This mask is not intended for medical use, and not proven to reduce the transmission of disease."
https://www.amazon.com/Face-Mask-Pack-of-50/dp/B086KMYNSS/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2USEL3ECS57ET&dchild=1&keywords=masks+for+germ+protection&qid=1587773235&sprefix=masks%2Caps%2C228&sr=8-1

The CDC (Centers for Disease Control) do recommend that kind of mask, or a simple cloth covering, for the general public, not because they protect the wearer, but because they prevent people who may have the virus and do not know it from transmitting it to others. They also say that the N95 respirators are the only effective prevention, and are trying to limit the short supply to health workers.

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/personal-protective-equipment-infection-control/n95-respirators-and-surgical-masks-face-masks


Even lower quality masks provide some small amount of protection that compounds itself if everyone is wearing one.

If I cough with a mask on, less is going to escape than without one. If you are near me and breath in, less is going to reach you with a mask than without a mask.

50% effectiveness becomes 75% effectiveness (more or less). Even in the 25% where it fails, you'll still probably get a lower viral load than you would have and that may be the difference between a minor case and a serious case.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think anyone was being lied to on the topic of masks. What you put here is the actual reason. They know people aren't going to wear these things properly and could possibly even make things worse.


IMO, what they should have done was suggest people wear a mask or some kind of covering and explain proper usage. You don't mislead the people that are capable of behaving responsibly because of the people that are ignorant or won't listen. You try to get them to change their behavior.

[lex]

IMO, what they should have done was suggest people wear a mask or some kind of covering and explain proper usage. You don't mislead the people that are capable of behaving responsibly because of the people that are ignorant or won't listen. You try to get them to change their behavior.

I'd say that's true except I think at this point people should know proper usage and that certainly isn't what I'm seeing in the grocery store. And since we started having to wear them in NY I'd say a vast majority of people wear one, then leave it in the car, then put it on again. Or they put one on keep adjusting it and then touch everything in the store. And it's not because people are stupid, it's just that we aren't used to it and do mindless things. Masks are not making feel any safer in the store. And that doesn't include the amount of disposable masks I see tossed on the street.

[PaceAdvantage]

Masks are required in NY only in situations in which proper social distancing can't be achieved.

Just wanted to put that out there, for the record.

[classhandicapper]

Masks are required in NY only in situations in which proper social distancing can't be achieved.

Just wanted to put that out there, for the record.

When I'm out for a morning or afternoon walk I don't wear one. I'm never within 15 feet of anyone. If someone is even heading in my direction I cross the street. I try my best to not have to go to any stores, but I had to stop off at the post office and the phone store recently. I waited outside until both were relatively empty and used gloves and mask to go in. I also made sure everyone else has one on. I disposed of both as soon I was done.

[AndyC]

IMO, what they should have done was suggest people wear a mask or some kind of covering and explain proper usage. You don't mislead the people that are capable of behaving responsibly because of the people that are ignorant or won't listen. You try to get them to change their behavior.

At the start we were told that masks don't help at all. This from the so-called experts. Then we were told that masks only help others and not the person wearing the mask. At that point I asked myself, why would it be necessary for a doctor to wear a mask if it doesn't protect the person wearing it? Because it has to be a certain kind of mask, an N95 mask.

If, in fact, an N95 mask protects people from the virus why doesn't the government supply the vulnerable with these masks? It would be a lot easier than trying to get 100% compliance for wearing non N95 masks.

[dilanesp]

At the start we were told that masks don't help at all. This from the so-called experts. Then we were told that masks only help others and not the person wearing the mask. At that point I asked myself, why would it be necessary for a doctor to wear a mask if it doesn't protect the person wearing it? Because it has to be a certain kind of mask, an N95 mask.

If, in fact, an N95 mask protects people from the virus why doesn't the government supply the vulnerable with these masks? It would be a lot easier than trying to get 100% compliance for wearing non N95 masks.

The "so called" experts have spent decades studying pandemics. You haven't.

There's a shortage of N95 masks, which are complicated devices and needed by health care workers all over the world. That's why the government isn't giving them out.

[dilanesp]

Goalpost=moved.

In the specific case of COVID-19, I invite you to do the same.

That's a complete straw man, PA. Basically you are implying that all epidemiology is bunk because it makes conclusions from past events.

You know who else predicts future events based on the past? Handicappers. If you really believed such results could never be extrapolated you should stop betting on horse races.

At any rate, you didn't come up with any actual epidemiologists who say that the consensus is wrong. Because you have none. Indeed, you and AndyC have decided all the scientists are wrong without reading any of their work or having taken a single course.

[PaceAdvantage]

At any rate, you didn't come up with any actual epidemiologists who say that the consensus is wrong. Because you have none. Indeed, you and AndyC have decided all the scientists are wrong without reading any of their work or having taken a single course.I've started entire THREADS about them in off-topic...which is where this type of discussion BELONGS.

[AndyC]

The "so called" experts have spent decades studying pandemics. You haven't.

There's a shortage of N95 masks, which are complicated devices and needed by health care workers all over the world. That's why the government isn't giving them out.

How long have they been studying the Covid-19 virus?

We had a ventilator shortage too and now that is solved. It seems like it would be a lot easier manufacturing N95 masks than ventilators.

[AndyC]

That's a complete straw man, PA. Basically you are implying that all epidemiology is bunk because it makes conclusions from past events.

You know who else predicts future events based on the past? Handicappers. If you really believed such results could never be extrapolated you should stop betting on horse races.

At any rate, you didn't come up with any actual epidemiologists who say that the consensus is wrong. Because you have none. Indeed, you and AndyC have decided all the scientists are wrong without reading any of their work or having taken a single course.

Covid 19 never raced in the past so your analogy doesn't work.

I haven't decided ALL scientists are wrong just the ones who have publicly made predictions that have been way off the mark.

[Clocker]

Even lower quality masks provide some small amount of protection that compounds itself if everyone is wearing one.

If I cough with a mask on, less is going to escape than without one. If you are near me and breath in, less is going to reach you with a mask than without a mask.



That's what the CDC said. Most masks are of little or no benefit to the wearer, but can provide some benefit to those around him. How many people would wear a mask if they knew that?

[Afleet]

At the start we were told that masks don't help at all. This from the so-called experts. Then we were told that masks only help others and not the person wearing the mask. At that point I asked myself, why would it be necessary for a doctor to wear a mask if it doesn't protect the person wearing it? Because it has to be a certain kind of mask, an N95 mask.

If, in fact, an N95 mask protects people from the virus why doesn't the government supply the vulnerable with these masks? It would be a lot easier than trying to get 100% compliance for wearing non N95 masks.

so his germs don't infect the operating site/incision area

[AndyC]

so his germs don't infect the operating site/incision area

That's a valid point with regard to the patient but I was referring to protection of the doctor.

[classhandicapper]

That's what the CDC said. Most masks are of little or no benefit to the wearer, but can provide some benefit to those around him. How many people would wear a mask if they knew that?


The primary benefit is protecting others, but there are secondary benefits if you wear one to protect yourself. They are not good enough to protect you 100% or even close to as well as N95, but they DO reduce what you will breath in in the same way they reduce what you will breath out. So if both parties are wearing one the combination is greater than if only one person is wearing one. And again, if you do get infected because these are lower quality masks, it "may" still be a lower viral load which "might" be beneficial in terms of how severe your case is.

This is what happened.

They knew there was going to be a shortage of N95 and other good quality masks if they told everyone to wear them. So they sacrificed some people and allowed the virus to spread faster than it would have to ensure the medical community got all the high quality masks first.

My problem with that is not ensuring the medical community got taken care of first with the best masks. I'm on board with that.

It's that they were too incompetent to realize there is little to no downside to wearing one correctly but potentially a lot of downside to not and should have promoted masks earlier.

I don't buy they were afraid people were going to use them incorrectly.

If you worried about that, make it part of the public service announcement.

[PaceAdvantage]

So there is no interest in discussing the actual topic of this thread? Is that what I'm seeing?

[Jeff P]

That's a complete straw man, PA. Basically you are implying that all epidemiology is bunk because it makes conclusions from past events.

You know who else predicts future events based on the past? Handicappers. If you really believed such results could never be extrapolated you should stop betting on horse races.

At any rate, you didn't come up with any actual epidemiologists who say that the consensus is wrong. Because you have none. Indeed, you and AndyC have decided all the scientists are wrong without reading any of their work or having taken a single course.

Umm... no.

I say that because with each and every passing day we are learning new things about the virus and the current pandemic.

The following article was posted by Lamboguy (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=2589729&postcount=3754) in The Coronavirus thread. Right now as I type this, that thread is almost 300 pages long - so I am reposting it here in an effort to make it easier to find.

The Only Man Who Has A Clue:
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/04/the-only-man-who-has-a-clue/

Imo, the article is a long but very worthwhile read.

For those who don't want to read through the entire article, the author interviews Nassim Taleb and makes the point that epidemiologists are not the experts whose predictions we should be relying on - because epidemiologists are treating things that cannot possibly be known in their models as if they are fact.

Imo, this is the exact same reason such a high percentage of horseplayers fail in their chosen endeavor.


Carry on,

-jp

.

[PaceAdvantage]

Let me go back to the thread topic...since I'm usually correct about things in the end.

a) there will almost certainly be a Belmont meet this year

b) and unless some more craziness crops up between now and August, there will very likely be a Saratoga meet, with or without fans in live attendance

[Jeff P]

So there is no interest in discussing the actual topic of this thread? Is that what I'm seeing?

If I had to hazard a guess --

I would say the data for new cases and new hospitalizations in and around the city of New York suggests the trend is moving in the right direction.

Based on that --

I think that if NYRA were to approach health officials with a well thought out plan to conduct racing without spectators at Belmont this spring - there's a chance such a plan might actually be approved.




-jp

.

[Clocker]

b) and unless some more craziness crops up between now and August, there will very likely be a Saratoga meet, with or without fans in live attendance


Given what I've seen of NY's governor, there is no way there will be live attendance. Equally, there is no way the state will pass up its cut of the action.

[king kong]

The turf is green and the results will be BROWN!

[Tom]

So there is no interest in discussing the actual topic of this thread? Is that what I'm seeing?

Seems to be a lot of expense to move to Toga if nor patrons will be allowed, and add to that, depending on the state of the "crisis" by then, would it even be allowed to move what, 1,000 - 1,500, 2,000 essential people into a smaller area like Saratoga, having been much more isolated that NYC? What is the deal now with COVID up there? If tracks are still prevented from having crowds, what about places to eat - will they allowed to operate other than take out?

If abusing the turf course at Belmont is the concern, couldn't they use the Aqueduct turf courses during July, at least part time?
How much trouble would that be, if people are already at both tracks anyways?
Or even race at Aqueduct for a month or two.

I wonder what the drop dead date is for NYRA to decide what they are going to do?

[groupie doll]

If, in fact, an N95 mask protects people from the virus why doesn't the government supply the vulnerable with these masks? It would be a lot easier than trying to get 100% compliance for wearing non N95 masks.

N95s are supposed to be fit-tested to the wearer because they can cause a cardiac event in a subset of the population if either not worn properly or if they are the wrong size. There is also a very specific method for donning and doffing them I imagine has gone by the wayside for many wearing them in this current situation. That, and the fact that there is a shortage of these masks are why they can't be doled out to the masses indiscriminately.

eta: and there is no if, they do protect from COVID-19. I wear them all the time at my job and I frequently work in ABSL-2 and 3.

[ReplayRandall]

Seems to be a lot of expense to move to Toga if nor patrons will be allowed, and add to that, depending on the state of the "crisis" by then, would it even be allowed to move what, 1,000 - 1,500, 2,000 essential people into a smaller area like Saratoga, having been much more isolated that NYC? What is the deal now with COVID up there? If tracks are still prevented from having crowds, what about places to eat - will they allowed to operate other than take out?

If abusing the turf course at Belmont is the concern, couldn't they use the Aqueduct turf courses during July, at least part time?
How much trouble would that be, if people are already at both tracks anyways?
Or even race at Aqueduct for a month or two.

I wonder what the drop dead date is for NYRA to decide what they are going to do?For God's sake, it's APRIL people...A lot WILL change...:lol::lol:

[AndyC]

N95s are supposed to be fit-tested to the wearer because they can cause a cardiac event in a subset of the population if either not worn properly or if they are the wrong size. There is also a very specific method for donning and doffing them I imagine has gone by the wayside for many wearing them in this current situation. That, and the fact that there is a shortage of these masks are why they can't be doled out to the masses indiscriminately.

There was a shortage on ventilators too, manufacturing increased to meet demand. Are N95 masks harder to manufacture than ventilators?

[dilanesp]

For God's sake, it's APRIL people...A lot WILL change...:lol::lol:

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1254150690508808192

[groupie doll]

There was a shortage on ventilators too, manufacturing increased to meet demand. Are N95 masks harder to manufacture than ventilators?

No, and that's not what I was responding to...

[dilanesp]

Let me go back to the thread topic...since I'm usually correct about things in the end.

a) there will almost certainly be a Belmont meet this year

b) and unless some more craziness crops up between now and August, there will very likely be a Saratoga meet, with or without fans in live attendance

Here are my predictions:

1. I think most likely at some point the argument for bringing back racing- without spectators and with strict controls, along the lines of what Gulfstream does and Santa Anita proposes- becomes unanswerable. So I certainly think you'll see some spectator-less racing at Belmont. Whether it happens in May or in June I don't know.

2. There will be no fans at any major sporting event in the United States until at least the fall, and very possibly 2021. If any fans are allowed into a major sporting event in the fall, it will be under social distancing protocols- crowds will be very sparse.

3. I highly doubt NYRA will move its operation to Saratoga to operate without spectators. But if they try to, Gov. Cuomo will likely prohibit it, because New York City's infection rate makes such a massive move a terrible idea.

4. The 2020 Kentucky Derby will not be run.

[dilanesp]

Umm... no.

I say that because with each and every passing day we are learning new things about the virus and the current pandemic.

The following article was posted by Lamboguy (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=2589729&postcount=3754) in The Coronavirus thread. Right now as I type this, that thread is almost 300 pages long - so I am reposting it here in an effort to make it easier to find.

The Only Man Who Has A Clue:
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/04/the-only-man-who-has-a-clue/

Imo, the article is a long but very worthwhile read.

For those who don't want to read through the entire article, the author interviews Nassim Taleb and makes the point that epidemiologists are not the experts whose predictions we should be relying on - because epidemiologists are treating things that cannot possibly be known in their models as if they are fact.

Imo, this is the exact same reason such a high percentage of horseplayers fail in their chosen endeavor.


Carry on,

-jp

.

So a random website that nobody's ever heard of and which is not peer reviewed says that epidemiologists, who complete at least 9 years of study in microbiology classes at the best universities in the world, places like Harvard and Stanford, and who conduct and publish peer reviewed studies, are completely out to lunch.

And Nassim Taleb, by the way, is a STOCK TRADER. He literally has zero qualifications here.

Personally, I think any opinion on epidemiology that is not supported by citations to epidemiologists starts out with a 1 percent likelihood of being true, maybe less. Let's listen to the scientists and stop latching on to nutballs simply because you might like what they say better.

[Tom]

For God's sake, it's APRIL people...A lot WILL change...:lol::lol:

Ergo the word if was used! :rolleyes::D

[AndyC]

So a random website that nobody's ever heard of and which is not peer reviewed says that epidemiologists, who complete at least 9 years of study in microbiology classes at the best universities in the world, places like Harvard and Stanford, and who conduct and publish peer reviewed studies, are completely out to lunch.

And Nassim Taleb, by the way, is a STOCK TRADER. He literally has zero qualifications here.

Personally, I think any opinion on epidemiology that is not supported by citations to epidemiologists starts out with a 1 percent likelihood of being true, maybe less. Let's listen to the scientists and stop latching on to nutballs simply because you might like what they say better.

A stock trader? Really? You couldn't come up with anything better than that to try and diminish a man with impeccable credentials? Perhaps your expert epidemiologists could have been better served with such a background before coming out with their wildly incorrect predictions.

[AndyC]

No, and that's not what I was responding to...

I appreciate your experience with the mask, good info to know. I am still suggesting that greatly ramping up the production would serve everyone better. I wouldn't dismiss widespread use of the mask just because it would involve educating the new users.

[groupie doll]

I appreciate your experience with the mask, good info to know. I am still suggesting that greatly ramping up the production would serve everyone better. I wouldn't dismiss widespread use of the mask just because it would involve educating the new users.

Agreed.
Hopefully this comes to fruition : https://www.afmc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2157724/air-force-expedites-n95-mask-production-contract-awards/

[cj]

Well, this got back on track for a little while but didn't last. Plenty of discussions in off topic for those that want to continue.