BC Classic

[Valuist]

Just felt a little disappointed looking at the pps. Looks like a repeat of last year with many of the same names: Pleasantly Perfect, Funny Cide, Dynever, Perfect Drift. Remove a high class Frankel older horse (Medaglia D'oro) and plug another in his place (Ghostzapper). You get the feeling the winner will either pay under $7.00 or over $50.

[Whirlaway]

Dynever may be interesting here. He seems to love the hard fast tracks like Gulfstream and Santa Anita. Lone Star may be right up his alley. His win in the San Bernadino was as good a performance as I've seen out West this year. Of course that was way back in April and he hasn't won since.

Pleasantly Perfect looks vulnerable - he hasn't been as sharp lately as he was early in the year. Ghostzapper can win, but I have a hard time seeing him run his best at 10 furlongs. There has to be a reason that Frankel kept him sprinting for the first seven races of his career.

[Valuist]

Dynever did win the Lone Star Derby a year and a half ago so he can handle the surface. But IMO, I couldn't use him unless he's at least 10-1.

I agree on Pleasantly Perfect. I wasn't overly impressed w/his Pacific Classic win. The trip was good; the number wasn't earth shaking. He beat Perfect Drift by 1 length and PP will be favored or at least second choice and Perfect Drift will be 25-1. I'm more impressed with Ghostzapper but that last race may have taken something out of him, and for whatever reason, Frankel has had a difficult time winning in the Breeders Cup.

[ceejay]

Originally posted by Whirlaway
Dynever may be interesting here. He seems to love the hard fast tracks like Gulfstream and Santa Anita. Lone Star may be right up his alley. His win in the San Bernadino was as good a performance as I've seen out West this year. Of course that was way back in April and he hasn't won since.

Pleasantly Perfect looks vulnerable - he hasn't been as sharp lately as he was early in the year. Ghostzapper can win, but I have a hard time seeing him run his best at 10 furlongs. There has to be a reason that Frankel kept him sprinting for the first seven races of his career.

Dynever looks interesting, but his two "2nd off layoff" performances were substansial regressions. That said, his "first off layoff" numbers off the other two layoffs were his carrer best, but his most recent was not: Maybe there's something left in his tank.

On Ghostzapper, I don't think that he neds to repeat his (IMO mud-aided) 128 to win this, but 10 f is new to him and I would not take a short price on him.

[cj]

I wouldn't bet Dynever with someone else's money. He is a money burner, and he'll probably be over bet again. OK for the bottom slots maybe, but if he wins, I won't cash, that's a guarentee.

[elysiantraveller]

Dynever is the only horse in the field with a win at Lone Star.

[cj]

Originally posted by elysiantraveller
Dynever is the only horse in the field with a win at Lone Star.

In a nothing race he was 1-5 or something like that and recorded a whopping 95 or so Beyer...no thanks.

[Valuist]

I think the value might be Roses in May. His win in the Whitney was as good an effort as I've seen this year. Tons of speed in that race; he battled thru a :45 and just off a 1:08 and change and still had enough left to win. He looks like he can have the lead, if he wants it.

[elysiantraveller]

In a nothing race he was 1-5 or something like that and recorded a whopping 95 or so Beyer...no thanks.

I never said I was going to bet him but if one is looking for a positive that would be it, along with the fact he is sure to have a hot pace to run at. I would take Perfect Drift before Dynever though.

[elysiantraveller]

Originally posted by Valuist
I think the value might be Roses in May. His win in the Whitney was as good an effort as I've seen this year. Tons of speed in that race; he battled thru a :45 and just off a 1:08 and change and still had enough left to win. He looks like he can have the lead, if he wants it.

The presence of Ghostzapper makes him having an easy lead unlikely. If GZ can rate a bit off of him he could get it, however, I feel if GZ can rate the race is over and he wins easily.

[Valuist]

Its hard to gauge how much speed Ghostzapper has. That last race was run around 1 turn and to my knowledge, that Dutrow horse he was battling wasn't exactly a lead at all costs type. In his two previous races, he didn't make the lead against 4 horse fields. I also heard Romans interviewed and he swears Roses in May doesn't need the lead; he has just found himself on the lead most of the time. Maybe neither one will get 10 furlongs. I do know who will be 2-1 and who will be the much better price.

[elysiantraveller]

Originally posted by Valuist
I do know who will be 2-1 and who will be the much better price.

I am not thrilled about the price of either of them. I would consider 4-5/1 a gift on Ghostzapper and the 8-10/1 on Roses as I honestly feel the distance is going to hurt Roses more. I will probably pick up Birdstone and/or Perfect Drift at 10+/1.

[cj]

I'm not sure how Perfect Drift could beat Pleasantly Perfect given the similar running styles of both. Throw in the 0 for the year trainer and its even tougher.

What do you see in Perfect Drift?

[Larry Hamilton]

It appears that most think, if GZ runs to his numbers he wins the classic at a no price at all. So, for the sake of argument, let's pretend he is in the race but that he plays the role of stalker and runs out of gas at the stretch. The question becomes who else has a shot?

I think the number superiority falls to either Funny CIde or Birdstone. I suspect you won't find value in either one of those either.

Here is something I noticed but dont know what to make of it. If you look at a collection of GZ's races, you will notice that in as the races get shorter he wins from further back while in his longer races, his style becomes EP. That logic appears up-side-down to me.

Conclusion: If you are a pick 6 player, I dont think this is a race you can single. In fact, the only race I think is a single is the Kitten on grass.

[Larry Hamilton]

It occurs to me that since GZ has three speeds (according to the Ultimate sheet) that are supeior to all others in the race, your only question about him should be, "Can he run that far?"

[Valuist]

I think Birdstone will be third choice and will be in the 4-1/9-2 neighborhood. I would be shocked if he was much higher than that. The more I look at the race, the more I like Birdstone.

But I don't know if we can assume Ghostzapper can't get 10 furlongs. Usually the best indicator is can the horse get 9 furlongs, which he most certainly can. It seems like going from 1 or 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles breaks more horses than 1 1/8 to 1 1/4 miles.

[Valuist]

Ladbrokes odds:

Pleasantly Perfect 7-4
Ghostzapper 7-2
Birdstone 7-1
Roses in May 7-1
Funny Cide 9-1
Dynever 10-1
Perfect Drift 14-1
Newfoundland 20-1
Personal Rush 25-1
Bowmans Band 33-1
Fantasticat 33-1
Freeforinternet 33-1

[Larry Hamilton]

wow! I am shocked at the odds on Pleasantly Perfect in this group. If that holds, you can bet your bippy I will be looking for the play that does not include him in even the top 2.

By the way, I havent run my program yet so I dont know where I am going to end up. My comments are entired based on the numbers and trends I can see in the early Ultimate sheet

[lsbets]

The one thing I can't get over with Ghostzapper and Birdstone is the layoff before the big race. How many times have we seen the layoffs work all year, but when it comes time for the Breeder's Cup they show that they are not ready for the level of competition? How many horses have won the Classic coming from a layoff of 60 days or more? I think the answer is zero, but I may be wrong. There should be some value to be found in this race for that reason alone.

[elysiantraveller]

Originally posted by cj
What do you see in Perfect Drift?

Well yes he has been hanging this year...a lot. However, the Classic lately has tended to have quality speeds knock eachother out setting up for a closer. PP has the lay-off to worry about, the Dubai Curse, and really wasn't that impressive in holding off Perfect Drift in the Pacific Classic, for PD to make up 2 lengths on PP seems perfectly reasonable coming into Saturday, and at a great price.

[elysiantraveller]

Originally posted by Valuist
I think Birdstone will be third choice and will be in the 4-1/9-2 neighborhood. I would be shocked if he was much higher than that. The more I look at the race, the more I like Birdstone.

I would imagine Roses will be bet down to third place and am hoping the Funny Cide bandwagon will hammer him down to 4th as I don't think he stands a chance in this race.

[OTM Al]

One thing I have been looking for in all the press coverage is what legitiamte contender is not getting much press, and that one this year is Roses in May. I like it when a trainer keeps mum about his horse when he is a contender. I see PP as a vulnerable favorite, though he should be the favorite all the same. Birdstone is going to need a trip like the Belmont where the top horses knock each other out to win and i just don't think that will happen. Funny Cide is definitely going to get hammered down, but he could surprise us. He would need to sit in the second flight down the backstretch, close to the lead, but not on it and then have the front runners collapse and hold off the deep closers. If this setup occurs, he could win, but I don't see it any other way. GZ is actually the hardest call for me in this race. He's looked so good this summer, but I'm still not sure I can buy his stretchout to 10f. Might have to go to the DIs with him. I also cannot completely discount Newfoundland. I know he isn't the best of the closers in the field, but I have really liked the way he's run this summer. All that said, at the moment I think I would play PP, FC and RinM on this last leg on my pick X ticket, though this is certainly subject to change.

Since its been brought up here, I will add that I don't think I will single Kitten's Joy. I say this in comparing how both he and Powerscourt kicked away from Magestretti at Belmont for KJ and the Million for Powerscourt. Edge to KJ for sure, but I think I'll take both as KJ is going to get hammered saturday

[Larry Hamilton]

There is a problem, personnel I will admit, if I can only get my best race down to Kittens Joy, Magistrell and Power Scout--I have no business playing any of the exotics. If one cannot play the exotics on BC day, hey, what's the point?

[OTM Al]

I don't think you need Magestretti in there if that is a problem for you. The other two have already proven themselves to be much better.

There are potential singles in other races though I think. Ouija Board in the F&M turf, though I may throw Riskaverse in with her, thinking more with my heart than my head. Azeri in the Distaff is also a possible single, but a bit riskier than the other two. Might even single Sweet Catomine in the Juv Filly, but those decesions are all afew days ahead of me still

[Buddha]

Originally posted by cj
Throw in the 0 for the year trainer and its even tougher.



He has 2 wins on the year now. He is RED HOT :D

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't see Funny Cide getting that much support in the win pool in the Classic...but that's just me...

[betchatoo]

Originally posted by lsbets
The one thing I can't get over with Ghostzapper and Birdstone is the layoff before the big race. How many times have we seen the layoffs work all year, but when it comes time for the Breeder's Cup they show that they are not ready for the level of competition? How many horses have won the Classic coming from a layoff of 60 days or more? I think the answer is zero, but I may be wrong. There should be some value to be found in this race for that reason alone.


All 20 Classic winners had a prep within 49 days of the Cup

[lsbets]

Thanks bet, that would throw out Birdstone and PP for sure, I'd have to see who else.