Saratoga meet is set to open July 16th, 2020

[NY BRED]

go to: https://cbs6albany.com/news/coronavirus/saratoga-race-course-to-open-as-scheduled-saratoga-springs-still-prepares-for-the-worst


open issues;

When will Oklahoma track be opened.
Will fans be allowed to enter the track



Loss of revenue to Saratoga Springs ,should the meet not open could be close
to 16 million dollars...

The other issue(s) could be the sales: I know FT allows telephone bidding to their clients, uncertain , at this point how that venue will impacted..

[RunForTheRoses]

I just read that and there really is no new news. It IS scheduled to open but that could change. No NYRA people were quoted.

Be nice if they did open but there is nothing definitive in that article.

And it really shows the potential economic devastation of the area if it does not open.

[classhandicapper]

I'm having a tough time finding the "net" upside to this if it happens.

If large numbers of people don't show up to town because they are afraid, it's a huge waste of money to move all the horses, horseman, and equipment up there to run with empty stands.

If many do show up to town, business is still going to be way down because some people will be leery about going to crowded restaurants, bars, motels/hotels, to the track, and for walks around the crowed streets of the town.

The worst case scenario is that it could cause a small new outbreak in the area given that people will be coming from NYC and all over country. Based on what I've been reading there's almost no chance the virus caseload is down to zero by then absent some continued social distancing measures.

Obviously, either way it sucks for the town of Saratoga Springs, but I can't be the only one that has already written that meet off for this year after spending multiple weekends or even weeks there every single year. Business is going to be WAY down for the town no matter what, empty stands or not. They could just as easily run at Belmont empty for way less money and hassle and be safer.

I hope I'm wrong about the caseload by then and it all works out well, but I won't be there and I hope NYRA makes the right decision.

[castaway01]

I really hope things have improved enough around the country that they're able to open. That's all.

[dilanesp]

It's worth noting that the story came out of an Albany TV station. There may be more than a little local cheerleading in that.

ClassHandicapper has this correct. If you actually think of the economics and epidemiology, this doesn't make a lot of sense.

FWIW LA's Mayor has announced no spectator sports this year. That seems like the more sensible projection.

[dilanesp]

FWIW LA's Mayor has announced no spectator sports this year. That seems like the more sensible projection.

Just so nobody jumps on me, that's the projection. It hasn't been codified into a law yet.

[king kong]

I bought a lot of Chad Brown stocks for turf only!

[AndyC]

It's worth noting that the story came out of an Albany TV station. There may be more than a little local cheerleading in that.

ClassHandicapper has this correct. If you actually think of the economics and epidemiology, this doesn't make a lot of sense.

FWIW LA's Mayor has announced no spectator sports this year. That seems like the more sensible projection.

Based on what? Fear?

[westernmassbob]

The town of Saratoga is already planing a 50% loss of revenue even if Saratoga racetrack and SPAC open for the summer. Since crowds in the area will naturally be down due to fear I think opening with attendance restraints and enforced safety precautions can work.

[dilanesp]

Based on what? Fear?

Epidemiology.

[Clocker]

Epidemiology.
You are an epidemiologist?

[RunForTheRoses]

You are an epidemiologist?

Why is everyone picking on him?:)

[groupie doll]

This is great news... I am disappointed to not be able to attend this year (for reasons other than COVID) for the first time since 2008, but I am relieved they are at least on schedule as of right now.

[AndyC]

Epidemiology.

Really? Is that something you do when your not practicing law, playing poker or betting the horses?

Based on the how inaccurate the real epidemiologists have been so far, should anybody be making long range restrictions on what people can or can't do?

[PaceAdvantage]

Based on the how inaccurate the real epidemiologists have been so far, should anybody be making long range restrictions on what people can or can't do?AndyC...always one of the most sensible in the room....ty

[thaskalos]

Why is everyone picking on him?:)

Because he is a lawyer. :)

[thaskalos]

Really? Is that something you do when your not practicing law, playing poker or betting the horses?


Do you have something against "Renaissance Men"? :)

[Redboard]

Article is a nothing burger. They aren't selling track tickets yet.



If many do show up to town, business is still going to be way down because some people will be leery about going to crowded restaurants, bars, motels/hotels, to the track, and for walks around the crowed streets of the town.


Maybe older people would be leery, but not young people. Besides takeout, patrons could be limited to outdoor tables and chairs. Reservations in advance. It's better than nothing.



The worst case scenario is that it could cause a small new outbreak in the area given that people will be coming from NYC and all over country. Based on what I've been reading there's almost no chance the virus caseload is down to zero by then absent some continued social distancing measures.


It's going to outbreak in every area of the country, eventually. Unless Saratoga Springs builds a wall around their town. But as long as the seniors and underlying condition people know that they have to shelter until there's a vaccine.



Obviously, either way it sucks for the town of Saratoga Springs, but I can't be the only one that has already written that meet off for this year after spending multiple weekends or even weeks there every single year. Business is going to be WAY down for the town no matter what, empty stands or not. They could just as easily run at Belmont empty for way less money and hassle and be safer.

I hope I'm wrong about the caseload by then and it all works out well, but I won't be there and I hope NYRA makes the right decision.


Sell 1000 tickets per day limited to the apron and picnic tables. Young people only. Facemasks required. All bets must be made by wifi.

As a senior, I wouldn't attend, but a sparsely populated Saratoga Springs with young people, might be safe. The only other option is shutting down the town until it's "safe." Which is probably going to be a couple years. Would it ever recover from that?

[AndyC]

Do you have something against "Renaissance Men"? :)

It was just my jealousy rearing it's ugly head.

[dilanesp]

Really? Is that something you do when your not practicing law, playing poker or betting the horses?

Based on the how inaccurate the real epidemiologists have been so far, should anybody be making long range restrictions on what people can or can't do?

I am relying on what the experts say. I am not an expert.

And no, the epidemiologists have not been "inaccurate". Their critics, in contrast, have been wildly so.

[dilanesp]

Sell 1000 tickets per day

I have mentioned this already, but if someone seriously wants to conduct a race meeting with some spectators, at most tracks these are the sort of numbers we would be talking about. Maybe a gigantic facility like Belmont or Santa Anita might be able to have 3,000 or 4,000. All spread out, all over the facility.

I doubt it's worth it though. I still like Gulfstream's protocols, which seem to impose plenty of social distancing and allow races to be run. I just hope other health departments allow it.

[AndyC]

I am relying on what the experts say. I am not an expert.

And no, the epidemiologists have not been "inaccurate". Their critics, in contrast, have been wildly so.

Point me to the accurate predictions.

[dilanesp]

Point me to the accurate predictions.

This article, from February 25, cites to a bunch of epidemiologists making accurate predictions, to just choose one example.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/health/coronavirus-us-american-cases/index.html

Let's not get too far into this because PA doesn't want epidemiological discussions on the horse racing board. But yeah, the stuff the scientists said would happen has happened. And now that we are socially distancing, the curve is flattening, just like they said it would.

[AndyC]

This article, from February 25, cites to a bunch of epidemiologists making accurate predictions, to just choose one example.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/health/coronavirus-us-american-cases/index.html

Let's not get too far into this because PA doesn't want epidemiological discussions on the horse racing board. But yeah, the stuff the scientists said would happen has happened. And now that we are socially distancing, the curve is flattening, just like they said it would.

What exactly was the accurate prediction? That the virus would spread? Let me go on record and predict that millions of Americans will come down with the flu and colds next winter.

[theiman]

Really? Is that something you do when your not practicing law, playing poker or betting the horses?

Based on the how inaccurate the real epidemiologists have been so far, should anybody be making long range restrictions on what people can or can't do?

I agree with you that long term restrictions should not be made regarding this situation. Making statements that there wont be public events, sports, concerts, etc until next year wasnt needed.

Play it by weeks or months, but not the next 8 months.

I think golf might be back sooner than most other events.

Stay well, and your family too.

[dilanesp]

I agree with you that long term restrictions should not be made regarding this situation. Making statements that there wont be public events, sports, concerts, etc until next year wasnt needed.

Play it by weeks or months, but not the next 8 months.

I think golf might be back sooner than most other events.

Stay well, and your family too.

FWIW, part of the reason why you are seeing folks like Mayor Garcetti making flat statements about us not having sports events in 2020 is because there's plenty of people (and no, I am not talking about folks here, I am talking about people out in the country at large) who basically never viewed this seriously, never favored social distancing in the first place, and are looking for the first opportunity to tell the scientists (whom they never liked in the first place) to go pound sand while we "open up the country again".

In that environment, it becomes very important to dampen the public expectations. Because one of the things you know those "open up the country again" folks are going to do is point to any statements by anyone saying "we might have sports back in late June" and use that to demand that all restrictions be lifted in late June no matter what the epidemiological state of play is at that point.

So as a result, a lot of policymakers, at least here in California, are beginning to feel that they need to err on the side of realism rather than optimism.

Saying "oh yes, we're going to open Saratoga on schedule in July" may be a nice feel good story to the folks in Saratoga Springs, but it then creates a constituency that will expect, and perhaps demand, that Saratoga open on scehdule even if it's fundamentally dangerous to do so.

Whereas in LA, we're already starting to absorb the fact that there's not going to be any spectator sports this year. If something unexpected happens and they can modify that prediction, they can always do so, but it makes the waters much easier to navigate.

To get back on topic, if I were czar of horse racing, I'd be working very, very hard on a comprehensive plan for racing without spectators for the foreseeable future, including how to fairly split up the handle, eliminating rules like Minnesota's restrictions on in-state betting, and generating a uniform set of rules like Gulfstream's that will be rock solid at preventing the spread of the virus at horse racing venues. It should be possible to have lots of racing during social distancing rules, and with other gambling options circumscribed, the sport could make a LOT of money.

But I don't think it makes any sense to be trying to race with spectators. That's just unlikely to happen for a long time.

[AndyC]

FWIW, part of the reason why you are seeing folks like Mayor Garcetti making flat statements about us not having sports events in 2020 is because there's plenty of people (and no, I am not talking about folks here, I am talking about people out in the country at large) who basically never viewed this seriously, never favored social distancing in the first place, and are looking for the first opportunity to tell the scientists (whom they never liked in the first place) to go pound sand while we "open up the country again".

In that environment, it becomes very important to dampen the public expectations. Because one of the things you know those "open up the country again" folks are going to do is point to any statements by anyone saying "we might have sports back in late June" and use that to demand that all restrictions be lifted in late June no matter what the epidemiological state of play is at that point.

So as a result, a lot of policymakers, at least here in California, are beginning to feel that they need to err on the side of realism rather than optimism.

Saying "oh yes, we're going to open Saratoga on schedule in July" may be a nice feel good story to the folks in Saratoga Springs, but it then creates a constituency that will expect, and perhaps demand, that Saratoga open on scehdule even if it's fundamentally dangerous to do so.

Whereas in LA, we're already starting to absorb the fact that there's not going to be any spectator sports this year. If something unexpected happens and they can modify that prediction, they can always do so, but it makes the waters much easier to navigate.

To get back on topic, if I were czar of horse racing, I'd be working very, very hard on a comprehensive plan for racing without spectators for the foreseeable future, including how to fairly split up the handle, eliminating rules like Minnesota's restrictions on in-state betting, and generating a uniform set of rules like Gulfstream's that will be rock solid at preventing the spread of the virus at horse racing venues. It should be possible to have lots of racing during social distancing rules, and with other gambling options circumscribed, the sport could make a LOT of money.

But I don't think it makes any sense to be trying to race with spectators. That's just unlikely to happen for a long time.

Per the San Diego Union this AM, Gavin Newsom wrote a letter to President Trump on March 18th saying that 25.5 million Californians would be infected within 8 weeks. I am sure that Newsom was sincere in his beliefs based on the expert opinions of the epidemiologists. Six weeks down the road from that letter we are experiencing a completely different situation than was predicted. What this should have taught us is that 1) the epidemiologists were very wrong and that 2) we shouldn't be making long-term plans based on unreliable predictions.

The err is not on the side of realism it is on the side of fear. Shutting down what people can do has consequences healthwise that may exceed any damage done by Covid 19. To "dampen down" public expectations is not at all needed. Quite the opposite should be done.

[dilanesp]

Per the San Diego Union this AM, Gavin Newsom wrote a letter to President Trump on March 18th saying that 25.5 million Californians would be infected within 8 weeks. I am sure that Newsom was sincere in his beliefs based on the expert opinions of the epidemiologists. Six weeks down the road from that letter we are experiencing a completely different situation than was predicted. What this should have taught us is that 1) the epidemiologists were very wrong and that 2) we shouldn't be making long-term plans based on unreliable predictions.

The err is not on the side of realism it is on the side of fear. Shutting down what people can do has consequences healthwise that may exceed any damage done by Covid 19. To "dampen down" public expectations is not at all needed. Quite the opposite should be done.

You just engaged in the bait and switch that everyone on the denial side does.

Had we NOT shut down the state, yes, we were looking at 25 million infections. But Newsom took decisive action.

Also, bear in mind that infection statistics are horribly understated. How can you be so confident about the low level of infection in California? You do realize you can't get a test here until you show symptoms.

At any rate, to get back on topic, the fact that lots of people agree with you and think they know everything and people who study epidemics for a living are just not as smart, is exactly why stuff like these Saratoga statements are so bad. Policymakers have to have epidemiologists' back. Because America is full of people who think they know more than scientists.

[AndyC]

You just engaged in the bait and switch that everyone on the denial side does.

Had we NOT shut down the state, yes, we were looking at 25 million infections. But Newsom took decisive action.

Also, bear in mind that infection statistics are horribly understated. How can you be so confident about the low level of infection in California? You do realize you can't get a test here until you show symptoms.

At any rate, to get back on topic, the fact that lots of people agree with you and think they know everything and people who study epidemics for a living are just not as smart, is exactly why stuff like these Saratoga statements are so bad. Policymakers have to have epidemiologists' back. Because America is full of people who think they know more than scientists.

No bait and switch, just facts. Newsom acted correctly based on the incorrect information he had. Garcetti is a fool to think he knows what will happen.

If infection stats are horribly understated, that would be a good thing. It would mean that most people are not affected by the worst that the virus has to offer. It also means that there is quite a bit of immunity in California.

I am sure there are a lot of smart people who study epidemics. Nobody is claiming they aren't smart. I am claiming that their predictions have been way off the mark suggesting that the science isn't what you would call exact.

America is full of smart people who have sacrificed way more than they should have for science predictions that were far from correct.

[dilanesp]

No bait and switch, just facts. Newsom acted correctly based on the incorrect information he had. Garcetti is a fool to think he knows what will happen.

If infection stats are horribly understated, that would be a good thing. It would mean that most people are not affected by the worst that the virus has to offer. It also means that there is quite a bit of immunity in California.

I am sure there are a lot of smart people who study epidemics. Nobody is claiming they aren't smart. I am claiming that their predictions have been way off the mark suggesting that the science isn't what you would call exact.

America is full of smart people who have sacrificed way more than they should have for science predictions that were far from correct.

The fact that the science doesn't meet your overly strict definition of "exact" is not an argument for inaction. Indeed, if we did have exact science we might be able to make the decisions you are calling for.

Scientists have accurately told us that this would spread around the world and kill huge numbers of people. They are also telling us that there is considerable doubt that we can rely on herd immunity without a resulting bloodbath.

Politicians who look at that picture and say "I'm listening to the scientists, no large gatherings for a long time" are going to save lives.

Again, what racing needs to do is figure out how to make Gulfstream's model work at more tracks.

[cj]

Again, what racing needs to do is figure out how to make Gulfstream's model work at more tracks.

Well, Florida has also deemed professional wrestling is essential. Hard to use that state as a model for anything. Maybe Oaklawn, they seem to be doing it right but they also have run out of purse money. Until casinos open, most places aren't even going to want to open, let alone fight the government to do it.

[rispa]

Well, Florida has also deemed professional wrestling is essential. Hard to use that state as a model for anything. Maybe Oaklawn, they seem to be doing it right but they also have run out of purse money. Until casinos open, most places aren't even going to want to open, let alone fight the government to do it.


CJ, that's a great point you made about the casinos being closed. Say, Saratoga is allowed to race come July 16, which is their opening day I believe. Does anyone think they will race without fans?

[AndyC]

The fact that the science doesn't meet your overly strict definition of "exact" is not an argument for inaction. Indeed, if we did have exact science we might be able to make the decisions you are calling for.

Scientists have accurately told us that this would spread around the world and kill huge numbers of people. They are also telling us that there is considerable doubt that we can rely on herd immunity without a resulting bloodbath.

Politicians who look at that picture and say "I'm listening to the scientists, no large gatherings for a long time" are going to save lives.

Again, what racing needs to do is figure out how to make Gulfstream's model work at more tracks.

Strict definition? Prediction was for 25.5 million cases in 8 weeks for CA. We are currently at 25,000 cases.

What we do know about is the people most affected by the virus and the people unlikely to be affected. It's time to quit treating people as though they lack the intelligence to act in their own best interest. If I was obese, had T2D, had Low vitamin D levels, had an autoimmune disease or heart disease I would take extraordinary precautions. All low risk people should live their lives as normally as possible.

[dilanesp]

Well, Florida has also deemed professional wrestling is essential. Hard to use that state as a model for anything. Maybe Oaklawn, they seem to be doing it right but they also have run out of purse money. Until casinos open, most places aren't even going to want to open, let alone fight the government to do it.

A few observations:

1. It isn't so much Florida (although they authorize it) as it is the substance of Gulfstream's procedures. They are maximizing social distancing. No owners, no VIP's, no media is especially important.

2. I actually don't like Oaklawn as much, because they were less strict than Gulfstream. That 50 person winner's circle photo after the Rebel was really bad, especially as several attendees ended up testing positive.

3. The casinos and purse money thing is partly a revenue sharing problem. Handle should rise if racing is able to promote itself as the only game in town. But as of now, a lot of tracks are operating under rules that were written when casinos were open and on track handle was a significant number. They need to rewrite those rules. Perhaps not every track can open, but that's a somewhat fixable problem.

4. The key with the government is working on some real airtight rules. The government has to be assured that if tracks reopen, they won't spread the virus.

[PaceAdvantage]

Scientists have accurately told us that this would spread around the world and kill huge numbers of people.That has been wrong as well....thus far of course.

Hasn't even hit 150k, officially yet, worldwide. And we've been keeping extra special track of all the death stats for over 2.5 months now...if not longer.

The flu, with its 600k worldwide deaths in the span of 5 months, is still looking down and laughing.

Not that this can't change. And I know, the social distancing has had a major impact. Which is why I hope we lock everything down again come late fall/winter, so all those flu deaths can be avoided.

[dilanesp]

Strict definition? Prediction was for 25.5 million cases in 8 weeks for CA. We are currently at 25,000 cases.

What we do know about is the people most affected by the virus and the people unlikely to be affected. It's time to quit treating people as though they lack the intelligence to act in their own best interest. If I was obese, had T2D, had Low vitamin D levels, had an autoimmune disease or heart disease I would take extraordinary precautions. All low risk people should live their lives as normally as possible.

AndyC, we are currently at 28,500 confirmed cases. Not "25,000 cases". The word "confirmed" is very important. Nobody believes that only 28,500 people in California has actually caught the coronavirus, as only 225,000 people have been tested here out of a population of 39.5 million. That's less than 1 percent of the state's population.

Your second paragraph starts out with an incorrect/misleading statement (the virus has killed plenty of young, healthy people worldwide, though obviously the old and immunocompromised are more susceptible), and ends up with your actual position. You dislike the restrictions on your freedom. People ought to fend for themselves!

And that's... a position, I guess. But it's not a responsible position. And more important, it's not the one that the governments of California and New York have adopted.

Saratoga, if it wants to operate, fundamentally, has to show it can operate within Andrew Cuomo's view of reality, not yours. And Andrew Cuomo accepts all the stuff about epidemiolgists that you dislike because you think it interferes with your sense of human liberty and responsibility.

[PaceAdvantage]

And Andrew Cuomo accepts all the stuff about epidemiolgistsLike inaccurate models that wreak havoc on everything?

[castaway01]

It's amazing the number of people whose brain functioning works at the level of:

1) People are drowning, everyone out of the pool!
2) No one is drowning anymore because the pool is empty, it's safe to swim again!

[dilanesp]

It's amazing the number of people whose brain functioning works at the level of:

1) People are drowning, everyone out of the pool!
2) No one is drowning anymore because the pool is empty, it's safe to swim again!

Honestly, what is really going on is that there's a significant group of people who didn't want to get out of the pool in the first place, and resents that their freedom to be in the pool was interfered with.

That's what's driving all this. That's why they want to get back into the pool as quickly as possible.

[PaceAdvantage]

That's why they want to get back into the pool as quickly as possible.Considering the alternative, who the hell wouldn't want to get back as quickly as possible?

I don't think you even comprehend what has happened.

Again...is this another thread that is going to be closed?

If you want to talk about the virus, TAKE IT TO OFF TOPIC.

If you want to talk about racing, the thread will remain open.

Problem is, THERE IS NOTHING TO TALK ABOUT regarding racing. It's either going to happen, or it's not.

There...nice short thread.

[AndyC]

AndyC, we are currently at 28,500 confirmed cases. Not "25,000 cases". The word "confirmed" is very important. Nobody believes that only 28,500 people in California has actually caught the coronavirus, as only 225,000 people have been tested here out of a population of 39.5 million. That's less than 1 percent of the state's population.

Your second paragraph starts out with an incorrect/misleading statement (the virus has killed plenty of young, healthy people worldwide, though obviously the old and immunocompromised are more susceptible), and ends up with your actual position. You dislike the restrictions on your freedom. People ought to fend for themselves!

And that's... a position, I guess. But it's not a responsible position. And more important, it's not the one that the governments of California and New York have adopted.

Saratoga, if it wants to operate, fundamentally, has to show it can operate within Andrew Cuomo's view of reality, not yours. And Andrew Cuomo accepts all the stuff about epidemiolgists that you dislike because you think it interferes with your sense of human liberty and responsibility.

With regard to your first paragraph, if many more are infected than the 25-28,500 then that's a good thing. It means that the vast majority of people infected aren't really having problems. A study at Stanford shows there are many more infected than is currently reported. https://spectator.us/stanford-study-suggests-coronavirus-more-widespread-realized/ If this true there is far les reason to keep things shut down.

No the virus has not killed plenty of healthy young people. Call me pro-choice when it comes to making my own health decisions. The government has never proven to be a wise voice to follow regarding health.

Clearly Saratoga has to operate within the rules and regulations of NY whether or not I agree with them. I don't dislike epidemiologists just some of the predictions they have made that have been way off the mark. Unlike yourself, I am not willing to hand over my rights in exchange for mandates based on faulty predictions. I don't view the public as being stupid and unable to do things for themselves.

[AndyC]

It's amazing the number of people whose brain functioning works at the level of:

1) People are drowning, everyone out of the pool!
2) No one is drowning anymore because the pool is empty, it's safe to swim again!

When you see that all of the people who are drowning don't know how to swim is it necessary to keep the swimmers out of the pool?

[thaskalos]

When you see that all of the people who are drowning don't know how to swim is it necessary to keep the swimmers out of the pool?

All the world's athletes clearly "know how to swim". What's keeping them "out of the pool"?

[AndyC]

All the world's athletes clearly "know how to swim". What's keeping them "out of the pool"?

Politicians.

[cj]

Politicians.

A lot of athletes already said they didn't want to compete before politicians got involved.

[thaskalos]

A lot of athletes already said they didn't want to compete before politicians got involved.

Tell him Cj...because he doesn't listen to me. :)

Remember when the Thunder/Jazz game was canceled because of the infected Jazz player? There was another game after that on that day, between Denver and Sacramento. The fans were in place and the game was ready to start...but the players refused to play, and the season officially ended on that note. It seems to me that the "politicians" hardly had a hand in that decision.

[dilanesp]

Tell him Cj...because he doesn't listen to me. :)

Remember when the Thunder/Jazz game was canceled because of the infected Jazz player? There was another game after that on that day, between Denver and Sacramento. The fans were in place and the game was ready to start...but the players refused to play, and the season officially ended on that note. It seems to me that the "politicians" hardly had a hand in that decision.

Indeed. In fact, one possible scenario if Saratoga were to announce it is going forward with a live meet with spectators would be jockeys refusing to ride, trainers refusing to saddle up, and spectators refusing to come.

The fact that there are some loud voices calling for opening may conceal that there are a lot of people who simply won't participate in any "opened" events

[cj]

Tell him Cj...because he doesn't listen to me. :)

Remember when the Thunder/Jazz game was canceled because of the infected Jazz player? There was another game after that on that day, between Denver and Sacramento. The fans were in place and the game was ready to start...but the players refused to play, and the season officially ended on that note. It seems to me that the "politicians" hardly had a hand in that decision.

Yes, I remember it well. My wife and I have season tickets and had already decided not to go to the game. Our daughter had just left the hospital so it was a no-brainer really. We couldn't sell the tickets either, so we weren't the only ones thinking that way. We couldn't even give them away.

It just feels to me like many are saying screw the vulnerable and those that are living with or in contact with them. You can all stay home, we'll do what we want. Frankly I'm glad the governments have stepped in because of that attitude.

[cj]

Indeed. In fact, one possible scenario if Saratoga were to announce it is going forward with a live meet with spectators would be jockeys refusing to ride, trainers refusing to saddle up, and spectators refusing to come.

The fact that there are some loud voices calling for opening may conceal that there are a lot of people who simply won't participate in any "opened" events

I'm all for thinking ahead, but we already know most trainers aren't going to refuse to train, if any, and the same goes for jockeys.

[dilanesp]

I'm all for thinking ahead, but we already know most trainers aren't going to refuse to train, if any, and the same goes for jockeys.

We know that with respect to racing without spectators.

Racing in front of a live crowd is a very different issue.

[AndyC]

A lot of athletes already said they didn't want to compete before politicians got involved.

They are no different from the rest of society. They are fed a steady stream of info that scares the hell out of them.

I sure hope Saratoga opens. (my on topic comment)

[AndyC]

........It just feels to me like many are saying screw the vulnerable and those that are living with or in contact with them. You can all stay home, we'll do what we want. Frankly I'm glad the governments have stepped in because of that attitude.

I would never knowingly do anything to harm the vulnerable or anyone. So why shouldn't I be able to go anywhere I want if I have my face covered with a mask? I will never be glad when government suspends my constitutional rights.

[PaceAdvantage]

A lot of athletes already said they didn't want to compete before politicians got involved.They said the same when Magic Johnson came out positive, but the league and the world told those athletes THE SHOW WILL GO ON.

[PaceAdvantage]

It just feels to me like many are saying screw the vulnerable and those that are living with or in contact with them. You can all stay home, we'll do what we want. Frankly I'm glad the governments have stepped in because of that attitude.Except nobody is saying that...

Who exactly is saying "screw the vulnerable?"

The vulnerable and those who care for them can do what we all are doing right now. Nothing would change for them. And the gov't, if it didn't have to pay EVERYONE a check, could much more easily assist the vulnerable (and those who care for them) in meeting all of their needs. It would be a much easier and economical way of accomplishing the same thing.

[dilanesp]

They said the same when Magic Johnson came out positive, but the league and the world told those athletes THE SHOW WILL GO ON.

What the heck are you talking about? Magic was basically forced out of the league (except for a one-off in the All-Star Game) and was only allowed back several years later when the medical folks cleared him.

[PaceAdvantage]

What the heck are you talking about? Magic was basically forced out of the league (except for a one-off in the All-Star Game) and was only allowed back several years later when the medical folks cleared him.You know exactly what I'm talking about. Players who didn't want to play with Magic...they were quickly shut up....because of politics. Ironically.

I'm not saying it was right or wrong. I'm just pointing out another instance of NBA players not wanting to play because of health concerns...zero ****s were given to them back then.

[cj]

Except nobody is saying that...

Sure they are, in so many words. Few are just going to come out and literally say screw the vulnerable (though some actually do), but that is the message. The virus can be transmitted by people with no symptoms that feel great. If I go to work with them or interact in any way really, I can get it and bring it home.

It sure seems like many are saying "it won't kill me" so I'm going to do what I want, and they would have without the governments stepping in. Many are still trying. How are the vulnerable supposed to defend against this if life goes on as normal for everyone? I'd really like to hear the answer to that one. And keep in mind the vulnerable isn't just old people that are struggling with an illness already. There are plenty of people at high risk that aren't old and normally are able to be treated and lead normal, productive lives.

[PaceAdvantage]

I elaborated.

[AndyC]

Tell him Cj...because he doesn't listen to me. :).................

I listen to everybody, doesn't mean I have to agree. With regard to the NBA game, it was at a time of great uncertainty with regard to the virus. The reaction was completely normal. I don't think Gobert had a difficult time with the fighting the virus given his age and health.

[cj]

I would never knowingly do anything to harm the vulnerable or anyone. So why shouldn't I be able to go anywhere I want if I have my face covered with a mask? I will never be glad when government suspends my constitutional rights.

Sadly not everyone has that attitude. I see it every day here in OKC. We're not New York obviously, but it is a big city with plenty of cases and probably tons more that aren't diagnosed since even sick people are still having trouble getting tested.

[dilanesp]

You know exactly what I'm talking about. Players who didn't want to play with Magic...they were quickly shut up....because of politics. Ironically.

I'm not saying it was right or wrong. I'm just pointing out another instance of NBA players not wanting to play because of health concerns...zero ****s were given to them back then.

Magic left the league. Other than the ASG, no player was asked to play in a basketball game with Magic at the time when everyone was in panic mode.

When Magic came back, the virus was nearly undetectable because of the protease inhibitors he was taking, and the doctors signed off on it.

There will be a point when the doctors sign off on less distancing here too.

[cj]

Except nobody is saying that...

Who exactly is saying "screw the vulnerable?"

The vulnerable and those who care for them can do what we all are doing right now. Nothing would change for them. And the gov't, if it didn't have to pay EVERYONE a check, could much more easily assist the vulnerable (and those who care for them) in meeting all of their needs. It would be a much easier and economical way of accomplishing the same thing.

Do you think if that was the case there would be all this concern about people losing there jobs and trying to help them out? Sure they could assist those that are vulnerable, but would they? I doubt it. I hope I'm wrong on that.

It could very well be that there is a better plan than what we have now, I don't doubt that. But just going about our business as usual isn't it and never was. In the beginning I don't think anyone knew enough and shutting things down was probably the right way to go. Now we know more and there should be a plan to get things going as soon as possible. But if we do that too quickly and too liberally, it is going to happen again. I'd bet big money on it.

[cj]

Magic left the league. Other than the ASG, no player was asked to play in a basketball game with Magic at the time when everyone was in panic mode.

When Magic came back, the virus was nearly undetectable because of the protease inhibitors he was taking, and the doctors signed off on it.

There will be a point when the doctors sign off on less distancing here too.

Yes, the NBA had the science by then to back up the decision to let him play. No player was forced to play if they didn't want to, they just wouldn't have been paid. It was up to them.

[PaceAdvantage]

You know what? There ARE NO easy answers...especially where we are now after everything that has been done.

I just know this can't go on forever...or not even that much longer.

And what happens the next time a Pandemic rolls into town?

Back in 2009 there was the H1N1 Pandemic in the USA. Many people weren't even aware, that's how little was done in response.

What happens if a 2009-like Pandemic hits the USA? Do we do this COVID-19 thing all over again? How do we not? People are going to want to...they aren't going to want to take any chances, right?

[classhandicapper]

It's amazing the number of people whose brain functioning works at the level of:

1) People are drowning, everyone out of the pool!
2) No one is drowning anymore because the pool is empty, it's safe to swim again!

:lol:

There's probably some moderate position out there between everything is shut down and almost everything is back open. The tough part of finding the point where we are maximizing freedom without paying any health cost. I think you need business leaders and health leaders in the same room. That way they can put on check on each other's extremism and we can open the things without risk but not take and foolish risks for money or other priorities.

[cj]

You know what? There ARE NO easy answers...especially where we are now after everything that has been done.

I just know this can't go on forever...or not even that much longer.

And what happens the next time a Pandemic rolls into town?

Back in 2009 there was the H1N1 Pandemic in the USA. Many people weren't even aware, that's how little was done in response.

What happens if a 2009-like Pandemic hits the USA? Do we do this COVID-19 thing all over again? How do we not? People are going to want to...they aren't going to want to take any chances, right?

Agree, there are no easy solutions and it can't continue.

I hope we learn from this one and do a better job next time. Hopefully it isn't in our lifetime, but that is probably wishful thinking.

[groupie doll]

What happens if a 2009-like Pandemic hits the USA? Do we do this COVID-19 thing all over again? How do we not? People are going to want to...they aren't going to want to take any chances, right?

More likely the response would be similar to 2009, or somewhere between that and what is happening now. H1N1 had a far, far lower mortality rate and was by all accounts a much less-severe virus in terms of the illness it caused. It was also not spread as easily. But, yes, humans will probably overreact in some sense as they normally do, esp. where liabilities and the like are in potential play.
There are absolutely no easy answers; I'd just be happy if some tracks could get back to running without an audience so we can see some decent summer racing on display.

[pandy]

The guidelines established for the shutdown was to flatten the curve to mitigate the damage from the virus and try to keep the hospitals from getting overwhelmed. There was never any plan to keep the country and states shutdown until no one was getting the virus anymore. If that had been their goal, shutdown as long as it takes to virtually end all infections, it would have caused the second great Depression, which is the reason why it wasn't feasible. That and the fact that you can't kill a coronavirus, so a long shutdown doesn't guarantee that it won't keep spreading or start up again.

We just have to hope for the best but if the virus seems reasonably well controlled in mid-July, my guess is that plenty of people will show up in Saratoga.

[Saratoga_Mike]

They were harrowing the main track at the Spa this am.

[lamboguy]

i think New York Racing will get opened up for the summer, but i doubt they will allow spectators. my guess is that if it does happen, Belmont will be the place.

if they do get open, maybe they will get on a national network every day. i don't know how their contracts are written with TVG, but if they do go on a national network, i hope they can go with the regular NYRA simulcast show instead of the TVG weekend show now on NBC sports. it would be great for the game.

[dilanesp]

The guidelines established for the shutdown was to flatten the curve to mitigate the damage from the virus and try to keep the hospitals from getting overwhelmed. There was never any plan to keep the country and states shutdown until no one was getting the virus anymore. If that had been their goal, shutdown as long as it takes to virtually end all infections, it would have caused the second great Depression, which is the reason why it wasn't feasible. That and the fact that you can't kill a coronavirus, so a long shutdown doesn't guarantee that it won't keep spreading or start up again.

We just have to hope for the best but if the virus seems reasonably well controlled in mid-July, my guess is that plenty of people will show up in Saratoga.

Don't conflate "shutdown" with social distancing. Restaurants will very very likely be open in late July. Hair salons should be operating with restrictions. Etc. There won't be a shutdown.

But there will not be events with thousands of people gathered in one place.

[moneyandland]

They were harrowing the main track at the Spa this am.

Where? It was all stone dust yesterday? All the dirt was removed when went past at noon yesterday.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Where? It was all stone dust yesterday? All the dirt was removed when went past at noon yesterday.

A friend sent me a pic taken from Nelson Ave this am - a very large John Deere (or Caterpillar brand) was on the track. Maybe they weren't harrowing the surface (I made that assumption), but some sort of prep work was taking place.

[QuarterCrack]

Yes they are in the middle of doing some sort of resurfacing - they appear to have just completed (or are close to completing) the stone dust or whatever base layer is going in. There are huge piles of dirt/sand out over by the backstretch chute; I think this was removed from the surface after last season, and my speculation is it will go back in once whatever they are doing to the bottom layers is complete. But it definitely isn't down yet, so there was no harrowing going on. :)

I guess if there is a ray of sunshine during these times, this work has been going on for awhile now and has not been shut down yet. For whatever that is worth.

[clicknow]

It could very well be that there is a better plan than what we have now, I don't doubt that. But just going about our business as usual isn't it and never was. In the beginning I don't think anyone knew enough and shutting things down was probably the right way to go. Now we know more and there should be a plan to get things going as soon as possible. But if we do that too quickly and too liberally, it is going to happen again. I'd bet big money on it.

There were good and bad decisions. Closing the schools I thought was good. The situation at Smithfield was very bad and they should have done more in such a high density environment. I think we could go up and down the lists but and put them in columns.....good decision/bad decision.....agree that hopefully we are able to do this more *elegantly* next time around, and going forward.

A thoughtful re-opening will most likely work in most cases now.

In some cases people aren't going to attends things like movie theatres, casinos, and large indoor events. I would certainly feel comfortable going to my outdoor local farmers market (booths are not close together) and stuff like that. Probably not the gym yet. I guess everyone will pick and choose what is comfortable risk for their personal situation.

No way to cover all the "symptom-less spreaders" out there, never was and never will be. High density situations as we learned iwth mardi gras, smithfields, etc. needed better plans in place.....shoulder-to-shoulder doesn't work well

[westernmassbob]

There were good and bad decisions. Closing the schools I thought was good. The situation at Smithfield was very bad and they should have done more in such a high density environment. I think we could go up and down the lists but and put them in columns.....good decision/bad decision.....agree that hopefully we are able to do this more *elegantly* next time around, and going forward.

A thoughtful re-opening will most likely work in most cases now.

In some cases people aren't going to attends things like movie theatres, casinos, and large indoor events. I would certainly feel comfortable going to my outdoor local farmers market (booths are not close together) and stuff like that. Probably not the gym yet. I guess everyone will pick and choose what is comfortable risk for their personal situation.

No way to cover all the "symptom-less spreaders" out there, never was and never will be. High density situations as we learned iwth mardi gras, smithfields, etc. needed better plans in place.....shoulder-to-shoulder doesn't work well

I have a friend who works for MGM Springfield Mass and word has it they plan on opening middle of May unless the state blocks it. They seem to have a very strategic plan with many restrictions the first month of opening. They will limit the amount of patrons in the casino and only have about 1/3 of the slots open with a safe distance between each machine. They are also going to make it mandatory to wear a mask. Those will be provided upon entering. They also will not be open 24 hours the first month. There are several other things in place most have to do with cleaning and sanitizing but I think the state and city will be acceptable of the new norm for a while.

[NY BRED]

i Posted this thread in an attempt to lighten up the members of this form, never anticipating these rants.

Regardless, I'm hoping the Saratoga and NY Bred sales will be held. The Saratoga sale is a fantastic venue which I've attended for over thirty years. In effect, authorized owners and agents can bid via the telephone, an the sale,like all other sales during the year can be viewed on the net/Youtube.

[Appy]

Anything politicized will draw rants. That's probably as it should be. Especially when folks are cooped up and getting cranky.
Same is true with horse being stalled up for long periods. Horses are naturally creatures of freedom and space. This is why I believe there should be required layoffs to pasture after no more than 60 days. Better yet would be out a few days at a whack every couple weeks.

[classhandicapper]

Don't conflate "shutdown" with social distancing. Restaurants will very very likely be open in late July. Hair salons should be operating with restrictions. Etc. There won't be a shutdown.

But there will not be events with thousands of people gathered in one place.

I think the plan with restaurants is to reduce the number of people allowed in by enough to meet the social distancing standards (whatever that will be). You won't catch me eating out with those standards until the new caseload is almost zero.

I guess hair salons can do something similar and also require the stylist and customer to wear a mask. The stylist will have to work around the mask.

[king kong]

3 M's for Toga mask,Money &Motel

[Redbullsnation]

We hope...


Need a bit of racing at the SPAAAAAAAAAA in order to relieve the pain that this virus has given us

[lamboguy]

we need something, i don't know what scares you more, the corona or the riders standing up on their horses at fonner Park.

[wisconsin]

we need something, i don't know what scares you more, the corona or the riders standing up on their horses at fonner Park.


:lol:

Been critical for a couple of weeks now, NONE of my money goes there.

[dilanesp]

Disney's likely not reopening its parks until 2021. That's an indicator on Saratoga it seems to me.

[AndyC]

Disney's likely not reopening its parks until 2021. That's an indicator on Saratoga it seems to me.

When did Disneyland start hosting horse races? Merry-Go-Rounds don't count.

[cj]

Disney's likely not reopening its parks until 2021. That's an indicator on Saratoga it seems to me.

Come on man, there are plenty places to discuss covid19 in off topic. Disney and Saratoga have nothing to do with each other in any way. Lets keep it at least somewhat racing related.

[the little guy]

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/nyra-is-hoping-to-race-in-saratoga-and-heres-why/

[dilanesp]

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/nyra-is-hoping-to-race-in-saratoga-and-heres-why/

If the state is forbidding spectators in July and August (as they should), it would absolutely be an unacceptable risk to human life to hold the meet at Saratoga. The absolute worst thing in a pandemic is to take a whole bunch of people who have been marinating in the place with the worst mortality statistics in the entire country and ship them up to a rural resort town.

I'm not convinced of Panza's economic argument anyway- the notion that bettors- who are STARVED for action-- are looking for "brand name tracks" to bet on is, shall we say, a little light on the proof. Boatloads of money is being unloaded on Fonner Park and Will Rogers Downs right now. At any rate, it's possible to brand the meet as "Saratoga at Belmont" / "Saratoga at Aqueduct" or even "Saratoga" if NYRA wanted to; NYRA owns the trademarks, after all.

I already thought the industry is clueless and tone-deaf, but this story really convinces me to an even greater extent. There are 11,817 dead people in New York City already. And NYRA thinks it can convince Andrew Cuomo to risk sending a bunch of people upstate who don't need to be there over a BRANDING issue?

EDIT: One other, more speculative point. If I worked for Andrew Cuomo, I would bring Panza in and cross examine him based on the statements in this article.

He says the Belmont turf courses can't take 5 months of wear. Which might be true normally. BUT... what if there are NO spectators? If there are NO spectators he's got 2 turf courses that are 1 3/8 miles and 1 1/4 miles around. A ton of races these days are turf sprints. He can finish sprint races on the backstretch if he wants, because there's nobody in the grandstand who will be there to watch them. He can also finish races at the end of the stretch. In other words, he has a LOT of available turf course configurations at his disposal if he was asked by his bosses to run at Belmont for 5 months straight, including configurations that would not ordinarily be available to him.

I think he is stacking the deck to make Saratoga the only plausible alternative. Which is usually an indicator of someone not being fully honest about things.

[the little guy]

It's tough being wrong ( apparently ).

[Spalding No!]

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/nyra-is-hoping-to-race-in-saratoga-and-heres-why/
If we take spectator-less racing as a given condition of conducting the Saratoga meet, is it really going to be more profitable to race physically at Saratoga as opposed to running a "Saratoga at Belmont Park" meet?

The article made mention of the Saratoga "brand" being an important consideration. From my own point-of-view, being out-of-state, if I favor Saratoga over Belmont Park or Aqueduct it's simply because of the difference in the quality of racing (less claiming, more 2yos, more stakes) as opposed to the actual location. The cards/fields would roughly be the same per Martin Panza. And with spectator-less racing, essentially everyone will be a remote player.

I understand the concern about maintaining purse levels, but is it really the brand-name that drives purses (as opposed to an ideal situation with live attendance)? Would simply labeling a satellite meet with the brand-name ("Saratoga at Belmont Park") be enough for fans forced to watch and wager from home?

I don't have command of the numbers but it seems like there is extra attention (and wagering) being given to Fonner Park and Will Rogers Downs, but if that phenomenon extends to a compromised Saratoga meet, it might be a mitigating circumstance with respect to the anticipated loss of handle.

[westernmassbob]

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/nyra-is-hoping-to-race-in-saratoga-and-heres-why/

Has anyone heard or confirmed anything in regards to new standards if spectators are allowed at Saratoga or even Belmont pre or post Toga? It would be extremely positive to see NYRA put something out there that says “ if we open to fans this is what it will look like”. Even though this is a fluid situation Saratoga is only like 2 1/2 months away. I imagine a lot of pre planning goes into that meet. Add in the pandemic it surely will be a challenge. Anyway I wish the best to NYRA and all of its workers and hope they can get back to what they do best in a safe environment.

[westernmassbob]

If we take spectator-less racing as a given condition of conducting the Saratoga meet, is it really going to be more profitable to race physically at Saratoga as opposed to running a "Saratoga at Belmont Park" meet?

The article made mention of the Saratoga "brand" being an important consideration. From my own point-of-view, being out-of-state, if I favor Saratoga over Belmont Park or Aqueduct it's simply because of the difference in the quality of racing (less claiming, more 2yos, more stakes) as opposed to the actual location. The cards/fields would roughly be the same per Martin Panza. And with spectator-less racing, essentially everyone will be a remote player.

I understand the concern about maintaining purse levels, but is it really the brand-name that drives purses (as opposed to an ideal situation with live attendance)? Would simply labeling a satellite meet with the brand-name ("Saratoga at Belmont Park") be enough for fans forced to watch and wager from home?

I don't have command of the numbers but it seems like there is extra attention (and wagering) being given to Fonner Park and Will Rogers Downs, but if that phenomenon extends to a compromised Saratoga meet, it might be a mitigating circumstance with respect to the anticipated loss of handle.

Those are some very good points you have made. I also wonder though.. If Belmont starts in the next few weeks will they have a lack of entries because some owners/trainers refuse to ship to NY metro and wait for Saratoga? Many could stay in Florida with racing extensions.

[Clocker]

The article linked about says:
“We lose quite a bit of money at Aqueduct, and at Belmont, we make a little bit of money. Saratoga pays for the rest of the year,” Panza said.


I am not familiar with racing up in that neck of the woods. Is it possible that at least one reason for Saratoga's success is that it has prime racing dates? Would one of the other tracks do better than it normally does if it ran on those dates this year?

[ReplayRandall]

Those are some very good points you have made. I also wonder though.. If Belmont starts in the next few weeks will they have a lack of entries because some owners/trainers refuse to ship to NY metro and wait for Saratoga? Many could stay in Florida with racing extensions.Good point yourself, massbob…..The political leaders of NY have dug the huge hole with their over the top hysteria, that the businesses of New York must unfortunately suffer the consequences, versus those states who acted rationally and calmly during the last 2 plus months....Kudos to Florida for not losing their perspective and political sanity during this unforeseen event.

Bottom-line, don't hold press conferences every single day and cry wolf, then get found out you were grossly exaggerating, it becomes suspect and desensitizing....Creditability gone via Capo Cuomo.

[classhandicapper]

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/nyra-is-hoping-to-race-in-saratoga-and-heres-why/

I'm not sure I would put much faith in any handle or profit/loss projections.

The Saratoga meet is successful partly because so many tourists and casual fans are there that otherwise wouldn't be betting and spending money and partly because of the high quality racing and big fields.

If they race without fans, they aren't going to get the same income from ticket and other sales and the handle is going to be down (unless because fewer tracks are open they get a bigger slice of the total pie).

They seem to be putting a lot of faith in the Saratoga "brand" to drive a lot more handle than they could get with the same quality racing and big fields at Belmont in order to justify the expense of moving all the workers, equipment, and horses there.

There won't be a legitimate way to know if it was the right move. There won't be any way to know what the handle would have been if they ran the Travers at Belmont vs Saratoga etc... and if the benefit of Saraoga (if any) was worth the expense.

I think a better reason to try it was the point he made about the turf courses. If the turf courses at Belmont can't handle the load, that would be a problem.


Edit: I see "Spalding No" is on the same page as me.

[biggestal99]

Good point yourself, massbob…..The political leaders of NY have dug the huge hole with their over the top hysteria, that the businesses of New York must unfortunately suffer the consequences, versus those states who acted rationally and calmly during the last 2 plus months....Kudos to Florida for not losing their perspective and political sanity during this unforeseen event.

Bottom-line, don't hold press conferences every single day and cry wolf, then get found out you were grossly exaggerating, it becomes suspect and desensitizing....Creditability gone via Capo Cuomo.

Hysterical over 17k deaths and even more in the hospital in a month.

Somehow that doesn’t sound hysterical to me.

Allan

[biggestal99]

Hysterical over 17k deaths and even more in the hospital in a month.

Somehow that doesn’t sound hysterical to me.

Allan

And of course closing in on a 1,000,000 positive tests in a month in the United States.

Seems like a measured response to something we know little about..

Allan

[castaway01]

Has anyone heard or confirmed anything in regards to new standards if spectators are allowed at Saratoga or even Belmont pre or post Toga? It would be extremely positive to see NYRA put something out there that says “ if we open to fans this is what it will look like”. Even though this is a fluid situation Saratoga is only like 2 1/2 months away. I imagine a lot of pre planning goes into that meet. Add in the pandemic it surely will be a challenge. Anyway I wish the best to NYRA and all of its workers and hope they can get back to what they do best in a safe environment.

Why is there a rush to do that when we don't have an idea of what the situation will be week-to-week much less three months from now? All a statement like that would do would set possibly unrealistic goals that might have to be walked back. That's the kind of planning you do behind the scenes. It doesn't all have to be announced to the public months in advance.

[lamboguy]

has anyone seen how bad the Gulfstream Turfcourse is beat up this year. they only have one course though. Belmont and Saratoga have 2 of them. to maintain the turf courses they might have to cut back to running 4 times a week.

my guess is that the handle for NYRA races will hit records this summer whether its Belmont or Saratoga. there will not be baseball and networks will pick up this meet no matter where it is.
i would highly recommend they stick with the NYRA simulcast as well to do their broadcast.

[alhattab]

I'm not sure I would put much faith in any handle or profit/loss projections.

The Saratoga meet is successful partly because so many tourists and casual fans are there that otherwise wouldn't be betting and spending money and partly because of the high quality racing and big fields.

If they race without fans, they aren't going to get the same income from ticket and other sales and the handle is going to be down (unless because fewer tracks are open they get a bigger slice of the total pie).

They seem to be putting a lot of faith in the Saratoga "brand" to drive a lot more handle than they could get with the same quality racing and big fields at Belmont in order to justify the expense of moving all the workers, equipment, and horses there.

There won't be a legitimate way to know if it was the right move. There won't be any way to know what the handle would have been if they ran the Travers at Belmont vs Saratoga etc... and if the benefit of Saraoga (if any) was worth the expense.

I think a better reason to try it was the point he made about the turf courses. If the turf courses at Belmont can't handle the load, that would be a problem.


Edit: I see "Spalding No" is on the same page as me.

Bottom line is we will never really know if Saratoga's numbers are/would have been better than Belmont or Aqueduct even. There's no comp and hopefully there never will be. If Saratoga runs but we can't go, will we be sitting around the house betting Saratoga, or will we be out doing the things we haven't been able to do for 2 months (or more)? If we do, would we bet more because the fields are better? The racing is higher quality? The racing is different- more 2 turn races, seemingly more contested paces on dirt, etc? The screen graphics are red and have that iconic Saratoga umbrella logo vs. the Belmont paddock tree? How much more $ is bet at Saratoga because people are on vacation, maybe a little looser with the wallet? Drunk and/or hungover if that's possible at the same time (side note- saw Chip Wooley during training hours when he was there w/Mine That Bird- his only horse in Saratoga. My buddy says "How do you like Saratoga?" Wooley says "Man it's been fun, I've been here 24 days and have had 27 hangovers")?

For owners, will the prestige of winning at Saratoga be diminished if nobody is there to watch, not to mention that owners won't be allowed on the backside?

I certainly don't know. I'm sure insiders have a lot more data that might suggest certain results, but we will never truly know. Maybe the quality would be just as good at Belmont this year- in part because other tracks can't or won't run e.g., where is the Parx/Delaware purse $ coming from? Will commandant Murphy allow Monmouth to open?)

All the best everyone!

[classhandicapper]

my guess is that the handle for NYRA races will hit records this summer whether its Belmont or Saratoga. there will not be baseball and networks will pick up this meet no matter where it is.
i would highly recommend they stick with the NYRA simulcast as well to do their broadcast.

There are a lot of wildcards.

I've been arguing for years that if there were fewer tracks, the remaining ones would get a much higher handle and be healthier and less dependent on casinos. That seems to be true based on recent evidence.

Throw in the lack of other sports to follow and bet on and that's another plus.

However, we also have millions of newly unemployed people without the discretionary income to gamble. I've also been saying for several years that the huge boom in the economy and especially employment was masking the sorry state of the handle in the US and that once the next recession came that would become apparent. The total US handle should have easily topped prior economic peaks, but it did not. Now we are beginning an economic headwind.

[Redboard]

Panza is absolutely right. I for one wouldn't turn it on if they held the summer meet at Belmont. It took me a zillion years to learn the SPA, why should I just throw away money. I suspect there are many like me.

The mayor of Saratoga is all for it, based on her comments about losing money for just the training track being closed. There will be plenty of hotel rooms and AirBnBs available. It would be a safer environment for everyone.

It's a no-brainer.

[Redboard]

Hysterical over 17k deaths and even more in the hospital in a month.

Somehow that doesn’t sound hysterical to me.

Allan

So it's OK for more to die in the NYC area but not upstate?

As long as there's plenty of hospital beds available, what difference does it make?

[burnsy]

At this point it will be against the odds to have the meet at all. Maybe no spectators or none allowed indoors , in the seats. But no matter what the numbers will what they are. No one in their right mind thinks it’s gonna be great but something is better than nothing.

The only hope is if summer makes this diminish. It does for many of these things. It’s a possibility the entire country dodges a bullet with summer. The month of May will be the deciding factor. It could dissipate as quick as it came. I guess I gotta stay positive and have hope. :popcorn:

[dilanesp]

It's tough being wrong ( apparently ).

It looks like most of the folks here are "wrong". Because I drew a lot of agreement.

Or, more likely, we are right and your employer is wrong.

[lamboguy]

It looks like most of the folks here are "wrong". Because I drew a lot of agreement.

Or, more likely, we are right and your employer is wrong.

they are going to have big time racing this summer in New York. i can't tell you which track, but they are going to have it. there are going to be challenges, but they will have it.

[Clocker]

to maintain the turf courses they might have to cut back to running 4 times a week.


Or just card fewer turf races?

[clicknow]

By end of May, things may be clearer.

If you're a county like Saratoga with under 400 covid positives, I would not expect ALL the locals to welcome tourists from downstate counties if they still have 30K-45K positives with open arms.

Some will like the $$, others would rather not. Just sayin' the welcome mat may not look like it usually does.

We are far enough along that each individual will make up their own minds about what they want, within whatever restrictions are or are not in place, according to their perceived risk tolerance.

Sounds like the mayor wants it. I don't play Saratoga as I do terrible at that track. I only play the midwestern tracks and foreign, and sure have missed going to OP in person, but I would not have gone if they were open anyway with the kinds of crowds they pull in.

[dilanesp]

they are going to have big time racing this summer in New York. i can't tell you which track, but they are going to have it. there are going to be challenges, but they will have it.

I do agree that some form of racing is likely.

I should say one other thing. Panza wasn't serving his employer by giving that interview. NYRA is trying to convince politicians and health officials to let them open. Saying "we're going to push to go to Saratoga" is terrible messaging while Belmont remains closed.

[drib]

"Running meets without fans in the stand makes it hard to predict handle numbers, but Panza said fans will bet more on a spectator-free Saratoga meet than they would on spectator-free meets at Belmont or Aqueduct. The racing and the makeup of the fields would be virtually the same, but the other two tracks cannot compete with the Saratoga brand."

Coming from an industry leader, this is pretty remarkable. Does he really think the simulcast world (implicit is notion there will be no on track handle) will wager more just b/c of the name Saratoga? With same horses and races, the Travers at Belmont will draw same amount of off track $. Having the Saratoga logo on a TV feed means zero; in fact, with everything else being the same, I could make a case that racing at Belmont, most especially on the turf courses, is a much fairer surface. I would certainly bet more on a 2 year old 1 mile turf race at Belmont, than those roller derby 2 turn miles at Saratoga.
Panza is in such a rush to promote fan free Toga (does he own a home there?) that he overlooks some other factors. Consider that just today, there was speculation in Kentucky that Keeneland was considering its own summer meet:https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/239826/beshear-going-back-and-forth-with-churchill-on-racing I would add that in a world with emphasis on social distancing, I don't think we will see grooms piling on vans with shipping horses, so horsemen are more likely to stay at home base. Does anyone think distant horsemen will rush to get on airplanes heading to upstate NY?
There was one kernel of truth with ominous overtones in the article. Mention was made of the heavy loss to purses w/o the Aqueduct casino revenue. Given the horrible condition of the NY State budget, I can easily envision those hundreds of millions getting rerouted to cover the huge gap in school financing that is looming.

[alhattab]

[QUOTE=drib;
There was one kernel of truth with ominous overtones in the article. Mention was made of the heavy loss to purses w/o the Aqueduct casino revenue. Given the horrible condition of the NY State budget, I can easily envision those hundreds of millions getting rerouted to cover the huge gap in school financing that is looming.[/QUOTE]

This is a huge question in NY, PA and perhaps elsewhere. I don’t know the legalities of it- the PA people say gov can’t touch the $- but I think we all suspect if powers that be want the $ they will get the $

[Secondbest]

they are going to have big time racing this summer in New York. i can't tell you which track, but they are going to have it. there are going to be challenges, but they will have it.

If I had to bet I’d take upstate.

[dilanesp]

If I had to bet I’d take upstate.

I will bet against upstate. Cuomo is never going to allow it.

[dilanesp]

This is a huge question in NY, PA and perhaps elsewhere. I don’t know the legalities of it- the PA people say gov can’t touch the $- but I think we all suspect if powers that be want the $ they will get the $

This issue should be 100 times the priority of fantasies of Saratoga or the Derby for horse racing. The sport needs to figure out how to make money under distancing rules, because those are going to be with us for awhile.

[PaceAdvantage]

Does he really think the simulcast world (implicit is notion there will be no on track handle) will wager more just b/c of the name Saratoga?Why not? It's not a crazy notion. People are easily swayed by big flashing neon signs...always have been.

It explains a lot in this world, actually.

[PaceAdvantage]

I will bet against upstate. Cuomo is never going to allow it.lol

I laugh because you talk like your opinion is anchored in granite.

The fact is, nobody has any clue exactly what things will be like by August.

Things could be 100x better than you ever expected. Or they could be 100x worse.

CUOMO IS NEVER GOING TO ALLOW IT.

LOL.

There are still remedies in this country when faced with an unreasonable dictatorship. Namely, the courts.

[Afleet]

lol

I laugh because you talk like your opinion is anchored in granite.

The fact is, nobody has any clue exactly what things will be like by August.

Things could be 100x better than you ever expected. Or they could be 100x worse.

CUOMO IS NEVER GOING TO ALLOW IT.

LOL.

There are still remedies in this country when faced with an unreasonable dictatorship. Namely, the courts.

Science has already proven the sunlight kills the virus (like always-there is a reason we don't get flu shots in the summer) and the government wants us to stay inside:bang:

[Tom]

Well, as long as FINGER LAKES opens, I am good for the summer.
Parx and Pen would be nice.....Laurel.....might be a lot better field sizes if a bunch of tracks stay closed.

Too many running anyways.

[dilanesp]

lol

I laugh because you talk like your opinion is anchored in granite.

The fact is, nobody has any clue exactly what things will be like by August.

Things could be 100x better than you ever expected. Or they could be 100x worse.

CUOMO IS NEVER GOING TO ALLOW IT.

LOL.

There are still remedies in this country when faced with an unreasonable dictatorship. Namely, the courts.

I am not an expert on NY politics. My statement about Cuomo is an educated guess, nothing more.

But the COURTS? By what statutory or constitutional provision is any governor or health official required to permit horse racing?

Other than religion claims, which are a complex issue, no litigants have successfully challenged any aspect of social distancing. There is simply no legal right to force other people to risk a communicable disease. The courts are a nonstarter.

[Tom]

If it has never been challenged before, then the courts are an OBVIOUS starter.

Especially when some tracks are doing it successfully.

[clicknow]

But the COURTS? By what statutory or constitutional provision is any governor or health official required to permit horse racing?

Other than religion claims, which are a complex issue, no litigants have successfully challenged any aspect of social distancing. There is simply no legal right to force other people to risk a communicable disease. The courts are a nonstarter.

If it has never been challenged before, then the courts are an OBVIOUS starter.


Since some people state they feel passionate about this issue, maybe you can explain (briefly) how they might start such court proceedings, i.e. for instance if somebody like Tom wanted to spearhead something like this.

The problem right now is that even some of the court systems, are mostly closed or only taking caseloads that are emergent. 34 states suspended in-person proceedings and 16 states suspended in-person proceedings on the local level that I can see.

I assume these cases would be brought at the state level where the tracks are located, right?

[dilanesp]

In theory the courts are still open to issue injunctions.

But the authority to suspend assembly in an epidemic is supported by more than 175 years of caselaw. Outside of religion cases, as I said, nobody is winning these cases. Indeed, governors have far GREATER constitutional powers than they have been exercising. They can put you under house arrest or impose a cordon sanitaire in an epidemic.

There is absolutely no basis for court challenges in this situation. The law does not protect the right to infect people.

[PaceAdvantage]

"The right to infect people...."

Wow...you are a spinner.

[PaceAdvantage]

There is absolutely no basis for court challenges in this situation.Of course there is.

You're saying the Governor of a state can force a business to close its doors on his personal whim and no legal remedy exists for the business. They are at the mercy of the Governor?

Thankfully this is not the case.

Last time I checked, the constitution of the United States lists no exceptions for pandemics.

[Clocker]

"The right to infect people...."

Wow...you are a spinner.
It's in the Constitution, and in some religions, a commandment. Thou shalt not infect people with malace aforethought.

[drib]

Why not? It's not a crazy notion. People are easily swayed by big flashing neon signs...always have been.

It explains a lot in this world, actually.

With the news today that Dr. Birx says she expects social distancing to continue throughout the summer, and Gov. Cuomo's statements about fan-less sporting events, I think we can conclude there will be no on track attendance at any NY track till the fall. Take away on track Saratoga attendees, and I don't believe that, out there in simulcast land, most bettors play races just b/c they are from Saratoga. Saratoga draws handle b/c of product quality, helped by calendar placement. Belmont would do just as well. Off track horseplayers are "not easily swayed by big flashing neon signs"; they will make do with what's available as the skyrocketing #'s for Fonner Park and Will Rogers Down indicate.

[dilanesp]

"The right to infect people...."

Wow...you are a spinner.

I am taking that language right out of the relevant caselaw.

That is how the legal SYSTEM views your arguments. If the governor says there is an infectious disease and you have to stay home, that is binding because the right to assemble does not include the right to infect people.

Religion is the only partial exception that has been identified.

[dilanesp]

Of course there is.

You're saying the Governor of a state can force a business to close its doors on his personal whim and no legal remedy exists for the business. They are at the mercy of the Governor?

Thankfully this is not the case.

Last time I checked, the constitution of the United States lists no exceptions for pandemics.

I am saying if the Governor says there is an infectious disease and there is one, he or she is deferred to by the courts. "Whim" is you spinning. Since nobody doubts the existence of the pandemic, this is not about whims and the Governor has plenary authority not only to close businesses, but even to close cities and lock people in their houses.

There is 175 years of caselaw on this. There may be a partial exception for the exercise of religion, but that is it.

[PaceAdvantage]

I am saying if the Governor says there is an infectious disease and there is one, he or she is deferred to by the courts. "Whim" is you spinning. Since nobody doubts the existence of the pandemic, this is not about whims and the Governor has plenary authority not only to close businesses, but even to close cities and lock people in their houses.

There is 175 years of caselaw on this. There may be a partial exception for the exercise of religion, but that is it.You are talking about the very beginnings of a public health crisis. That's not what is going to exist by the time Saratoga rolls around...unless something radically changes.

There is no way on God's green Earth that a governor, anywhere, could possibly, legally, wield that much power, with no way to challenge him or her in the courts. It's just not possible.

Again, not talking about the beginnings of a pandemic. That's not where we will be in July/August.

[dilanesp]

You are talking about the very beginnings of a public health crisis. That's not what is going to exist by the time Saratoga rolls around...unless something radically changes.

There is no way on God's green Earth that a governor, anywhere, could possibly, legally, wield that much power, with no way to challenge him or her in the courts. It's just not possible.

Again, not talking about the beginnings of a pandemic. That's not where we will be in July/August.

Here's the US Supreme Court in the Compagnie Francaise de Navigation case from 1902. I will quote the syllabus, but it accurately summarizes the holding:

The law of Louisiana under which the Board of Health exerted the authority complained of in this case is found in section 8 of Act 192 of 1898. The Supreme Court of Louisiana, interpreting this statute, held that it empowered the board to exclude healthy persons from a locality infested with a contagious or infectious disease, and that this power was intended to apply as well to persons seeking to enter the infected place, whether they came from without or within the state. Held: that this empowered the hoard to exclude healthy persons from a locality infested with a contagious or infectious disease, and that the power was intended to apply as well to persons seeking to enter the infected place, whether they came from without or within the state.

The power of quarantine during epidemics was mentioned as a quintessential state power by Chief Justice Marshall, who was a framer of the Constitution, in Gibbons v. Ogden.

Yes, Governors have close to unlimited powers to enforce social distancing in a pandemic, even if it destroys businesses.

And the argument "it's not really a pandemic" is not judicially reviewable. It is up to the politicians to determine that, at least so long as there is some sort of infectious agent.

On that point, here's the Supreme Court from over 100 years ago on a compulsory vaccination law:

It is within the police power of a State to enact a compulsory vaccination law, and it is for the legislature, and not for the courts, to determine in the first instance whether vaccination is or is not the best mode for the prevention of smallpox and the protection of the public health.

Translation: courts aren't going to review politicians' decisions as to what the best way to fight a viral outbreak is.

[dilanesp]

If anyone is truly interested in this area of law, track down the case of Binford v. Sununu. Libertarians in New Hampshire challenged the state's ban on gatherings of more than 50 people due to the coronavirus. The Court held review was limited to (1) a determination that the Governor believed in good faith that there was an emergency and (2) there was some factual basis for the Governor's conclusion.

That's it. So long as the Governor believes distancing is necessary and there is "some" factual basis for that belief, the government wins.

I do realize it shocks people that things they thought the US Constitution prohibits are in fact perfectly permissible. But the Constitution isn't a libertarian charter, even though it protects some civil liberties. Specifically, Governors in emergencies have tons of power.

[clicknow]

I am taking that language right out of the relevant caselaw.

I've done some reading of caselaw that involves invocation of emergency powers that restrict activities that would normally be "constitutionally protected. "

(cases about violating different kinds of curfews, restricting the right to travel to regions with pestilences, personal detentions, etc.). One would have to overcome quite a lot in terms of legitimate purpose, imperativeness, etc. which is why these petitions that involve movements or actions that present a danger to other individuals or to the greater community never make it out of the Circuit Courts w/out being dismissed and thus are denied review by the Supreme Court.

To continue reading will take years of my time. Understanding caselaw and precedents is a lot more work than reading sentences out of the Constitution. Since you have earned a law degree you already know this. :D

But the reading has been interesting and has helped me form an opinion, so I will continue, but it's a lot of work.

If anyone is truly interested in this area of law, track down the case of Binford v. Sununu.

I read that one. As you know, each case cites 4-5 other cases, so it's an endless reading project to really understand what is, and isn't, constitutionally protected. The reasoning and logic you get out of reading petitions is very worthwhile, I think.

[TMQ]

You are talking about the very beginnings of a public health crisis. That's not what is going to exist by the time Saratoga rolls around...unless something radically changes.

There is no way on God's green Earth that a governor, anywhere, could possibly, legally, wield that much power, with no way to challenge him or her in the courts. It's just not possible.

Again, not talking about the beginnings of a pandemic. That's not where we will be in July/August.

The NFL is operating under the assumption they will most likely be playing games in empty stadiums. I think there is zero chance of any type of sporting event that will allow spectators until there is a vaccine. The fact that Saratoga is in New York makes the situation even worse as they have been impacted far more then any other state. There is no way people will be allowed to attend and horse tace in New York for awhile honestly.

[westernmassbob]

The NFL is operating under the assumption they will most likely be playing games in empty stadiums. I think there is zero chance of any type of sporting event that will allow spectators until there is a vaccine. The fact that Saratoga is in New York makes the situation even worse as they have been impacted far more then any other state. There is no way people will be allowed to attend and horse tace in New York for awhile honestly.

I don’t think Saratoga should be included in zero spectator stadium situation. Most of the seating is in an outdoor setting in which it can easily be controlled for social distancing. Officials have already talked about reducing daily attendance when/if these tracks open to the public. Any outdoor venue has a far less chance of any type of virus spreading. Saratoga/ Lake George area is already expecting tourism to be down more then 50% so this most certainly will mean track attendance would naturally be way down. Also you can’t loop Saratoga in with the greater NYC numbers as it’s like living 3 states away. Look at Vermont, NH and Ct , they boarder Mass and have a drastic difference in numbers. IDK two and a half months out .....I say TOGA has spectators.

[PaceAdvantage]

The NFL is operating under the assumption they will most likely be playing games in empty stadiums. I think there is zero chance of any type of sporting event that will allow spectators until there is a vaccine. The fact that Saratoga is in New York makes the situation even worse as they have been impacted far more then any other state. There is no way people will be allowed to attend and horse tace in New York for awhile honestly.I wasn't posting anything recently advocating for the absolute right to include spectators.

I don't even expect that to be a reality.

I believe dilane is posting from the position that spectators or not, Cuomo will bring his crushing boot upon the neck of NYRA operating in Saratoga...lol

[Secondbest]

I will bet against upstate. Cuomo is never going to allow it.

I can see Cuomo opening Saratoga with limited or no fans in the stands.
Aqueduct or Belmont no.

[NTamm1215]

With the news today that Dr. Birx says she expects social distancing to continue throughout the summer, and Gov. Cuomo's statements about fan-less sporting events, I think we can conclude there will be no on track attendance at any NY track till the fall. Take away on track Saratoga attendees, and I don't believe that, out there in simulcast land, most bettors play races just b/c they are from Saratoga. Saratoga draws handle b/c of product quality, helped by calendar placement. Belmont would do just as well. Off track horseplayers are "not easily swayed by big flashing neon signs"; they will make do with what's available as the skyrocketing #'s for Fonner Park and Will Rogers Down indicate.

Wrong. There is absolutely no way you can assert that people will bet as much, or more, on Belmont than Saratoga. It is not based on anything factual or historical, but instead anecdotal evidence of two low-handling tracks that are the only games in town on certain days of the week during the height of the pandemic.

Panza made it very clear in the article that the per-starter handle at Saratoga blows what it is at Belmont out of the water. In a game that has suffered mightily in terms of popularity and performance, Saratoga is one brand that has actually gotten stronger over time.

Outside of the "Festival", Belmont's busiest day of the spring-summer meet is Stars and Stripes. The handle in 2018 was a record - $24.6 million. The card had 92 betting interests. Last year, the first Saturday at Saratoga was on July 13. The card had 88 betting interests. The handle? Over $28 million.

If there is racing, fans or not, it will be at Saratoga on July 16.

[HorsemenHeist]

I guess "Gulfstream Park West" handled a lot more under that brand than "Calder". Think that is the extent of the research done on the feasibility of "Saratoga at Belmont"

Should be noted that Saratoga gets many shippers from out of state, including Kentucky. Without a cohesive schedule elsewhere before the meet starts, how can horses be ready to sustain similar field size to previous years?

[alhattab]

Wrong. There is absolutely no way you can assert that people will bet as much, or more, on Belmont than Saratoga. It is not based on anything factual or historical, but instead anecdotal evidence of two low-handling tracks that are the only games in town on certain days of the week during the height of the pandemic.

Panza made it very clear in the article that the per-starter handle at Saratoga blows what it is at Belmont out of the water. In a game that has suffered mightily in terms of popularity and performance, Saratoga is one brand that has actually gotten stronger over time.

Outside of the "Festival", Belmont's busiest day of the spring-summer meet is Stars and Stripes. The handle in 2018 was a record - $24.6 million. The card had 92 betting interests. Last year, the first Saturday at Saratoga was on July 13. The card had 88 betting interests. The handle? Over $28 million.

If there is racing, fans or not, it will be at Saratoga on July 16.

Off track figs (per Equibase) were $23 million ($250k per starter) for Stars & Stripes and $23.8 million ($270k/starter) for Saratoga Saturday, so about 3.5% higher nominally and a shade under 10% per starter. I realize also the comparison may not be that great- presuming intentionally so- considering the Belmont card was stakes-laden and the Spa card featured a relatively mundane Diana. The burning question is does that Spa bump hold up in the circumstances? So many moving parts. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[dilanesp]

Wrong. There is absolutely no way you can assert that people will bet as much, or more, on Belmont than Saratoga. It is not based on anything factual or historical, but instead anecdotal evidence of two low-handling tracks that are the only games in town on certain days of the week during the height of the pandemic.

Panza made it very clear in the article that the per-starter handle at Saratoga blows what it is at Belmont out of the water. In a game that has suffered mightily in terms of popularity and performance, Saratoga is one brand that has actually gotten stronger over time.

Outside of the "Festival", Belmont's busiest day of the spring-summer meet is Stars and Stripes. The handle in 2018 was a record - $24.6 million. The card had 92 betting interests. Last year, the first Saturday at Saratoga was on July 13. The card had 88 betting interests. The handle? Over $28 million.

If there is racing, fans or not, it will be at Saratoga on July 16.

Panza has no statistics on handle during a pandemic. Those off track handles come from years where there is racing all over the country, and fans betting other tracks then also bet on races at Saratoga.

It makes zero sense to extrapolate them, and frankly, he was very stupid to make such a bad argument publicly. He hurt his employer (which is not even racing at all right now and can be kept out of business for an indefinite period by other government agencies) by saying it in an interview, because now it looks like NYRA thinks branding is more important than public safety.

[PaceAdvantage]

Panza has no statistics on handle during a pandemic. NYRA wasn't racing during the last pandemic (2009)??

[dilanesp]

I've done some reading of caselaw that involves invocation of emergency powers that restrict activities that would normally be "constitutionally protected. "

(cases about violating different kinds of curfews, restricting the right to travel to regions with pestilences, personal detentions, etc.). One would have to overcome quite a lot in terms of legitimate purpose, imperativeness, etc. which is why these petitions that involve movements or actions that present a danger to other individuals or to the greater community never make it out of the Circuit Courts w/out being dismissed and thus are denied review by the Supreme Court.

To continue reading will take years of my time. Understanding caselaw and precedents is a lot more work than reading sentences out of the Constitution. Since you have earned a law degree you already know this. :D

But the reading has been interesting and has helped me form an opinion, so I will continue, but it's a lot of work.



I read that one. As you know, each case cites 4-5 other cases, so it's an endless reading project to really understand what is, and isn't, constitutionally protected. The reasoning and logic you get out of reading petitions is very worthwhile, I think.

You can read a long time, and outside of the religion context, as well as a few cases from 120 years ago involving using a epidemic as an excuse to effectively imprison Chinese residents in San Francisco, you won't find any reported cases where the judges actually reviewed a Governor's finding that there was an epidemic, beyond a cursory "does he believe it in good faith" review.

The law in this area is clear.

[dilanesp]

NYRA wasn't racing during the last pandemic (2009)??

That pandemic didn't involve nationwide social distancing. We don't have any statistics that give Panza any basis for the BS in that interview.

[the little guy]

Panza has no statistics on handle during a pandemic. Those off track handles come from years where there is racing all over the country, and fans betting other tracks then also bet on races at Saratoga.

It makes zero sense to extrapolate them, and frankly, he was very stupid to make such a bad argument publicly. He hurt his employer (which is not even racing at all right now and can be kept out of business for an indefinite period by other government agencies) by saying it in an interview, because now it looks like NYRA thinks branding is more important than public safety.


It's actually remarkable the lack of intuitive thinking you are willing to display in order to stick to your perverse agenda....whether on this specific issue or others.

[dilanesp]

It's actually remarkable the lack of intuitive thinking you are willing to display in order to stick to your perverse agenda....whether on this specific issue or others.

To be clear, TLG is a NYRA employee and is required by his employer to back up Panza.

That is the only reason he is saying this, as he is too smart to actually believe it.

[classhandicapper]

Panza made it very clear in the article that the per-starter handle at Saratoga blows what it is at Belmont out of the water. In a game that has suffered mightily in terms of popularity and performance, Saratoga is one brand that has actually gotten stronger over time.



I'm sure Panza has some kind of estimate for how much on track handle he gets from tourists and other casual fans that attend Saratoga everyday as part of their vacation, weekend getaway, or day trip etc.. He did not include or mention that as part if the analysis. However, IMO a lot of those people will NOT be betting Saratoga as a simulcast this year. They are only there and gambling for the on track experience. Most of the the people I go to Saratoga with every year fall into that category. Even if it's not a huge handle number, the past per starter numbers for Saratoga are misleading relative to Belmont and Aqueduct for that reason alone.

Also, I personally often don't even look at AQU (12 horse fields or not) because the horses stink and the races are sometimes undecipherable. But I often bet 5-7 horse fields at Saratoga because they are high quality horses on which I have a good line.

There's no way to know how much the quality issue alone impacts per starter numbers at each track.

If you ran Saratoga quality races at Belmont and especially AQU, the per starter handle at each track would almost certainly narrow from where it is now.

When all is said and done, the Saratoga brand is the superior brand, but I'm not so sure it's by enough to warrant all the extra expenses and risks of sending all the horses, horsemen, and backstretch workers up there.

In any event, there will also be no way to prove anything after the fact because we'll never know what "Saratoga at Belmont" would have handled, we have no idea how millions of job losses are going to impact handle, and we don't know how a smaller national schedule and lack of other sports gambling are going to impact either Saratoga or Belmont on the plus side.

If they can race, they should race, but imo Saratoga vs. Belmont is not a no brain decision, especially when costs and risks are included.

[PaceAdvantage]

To be clear, TLG is a NYRA employee and is required by his employer to back up Panza.

That is the only reason he is saying this, as he is too smart to actually believe it.Way to up the ol' "dick factor...."

Didn't think it was possible at this point.

I know, I know...TLG is a dick to you too...you're just a poor misunderstood Clarence Darrow.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

While I am enjoying reading this thread and everyone going back and forth about numbers they likely don't know, there is one thing we do know for sure.

Saratoga is the best meet in the country, and its not even close. Assuming the meet is run, customers will go out of their way to find and wager on it. 90% or more of that on track crowd, if there are no spectators, will find a way to play either on an ADW or other locations. Yes, some casual money will be lost but likely immaterial.

It is also laughable that Panza or any other executive there has no clue about the numbers. If it was even remotely true that the brand means nothing and having the same quality fields at Belmont or Aqueduct would result in about the same handle, why go upstate? Why incur all the costs to ship both office items and people, at a time when they have not been able to run for months, if it was not in their best financial interest? AND if they have no fans and miss out on all the non-parimutuel revenues like gate, F&B, ect, yet STILL want run upstate, what does that tell you?

Come on man! :D

[ubercapper]

I am saying if the Governor says there is an infectious disease and there is one, he or she is deferred to by the courts. "Whim" is you spinning. Since nobody doubts the existence of the pandemic, this is not about whims and the Governor has plenary authority not only to close businesses, but even to close cities and lock people in their houses.

There is 175 years of caselaw on this. There may be a partial exception for the exercise of religion, but that is it.

The government has to treat every class of business the same, or at least treat the citizens the same, right?

Maybe at the start of the pandemic, Governor's had basis for emergency orders to define "essential businesses" then close all but those "essential" businesses.

However, I think at some point a class of business (and it's customers) may try to make the case in court either the government is 1) Treating them differently or 2) has no right to determine business A is more or less essential then business B.



Is it possible courts may be more inclined to accept those arguments?

[dilanesp]

Way to up the ol' "dick factor...."

Didn't think it was possible at this point.

I know, I know...TLG is a dick to you too...you're just a poor misunderstood Clarence Darrow.

I actually like him. Indeed, I think as an ambassador to horse racing there are few better- he's sort of a latter day Andy Beyer.

But he's also a NYRA employee. I don't think that makes him a bad person at all. I am not allowed to go on this website (or any other) and undermine my clients either. Anyone who works in a public-facing job faces these restrictions; they are part of life.

But when he says that I'm an idiot for not understanding all the magic subtleties of the statements of NYRA's racing executives in public interviews, I think his employment is something worth taking into account. I doubt he is actually thinking that the points I made had no relevance.

[dilanesp]

The government has to treat every class of business the same, or at least treat the citizens the same, right?

Maybe at the start of the pandemic, Governor's had basis for emergency orders to define "essential businesses" then close all but those "essential" businesses.

However, I think at some point a class of business (and it's customers) may try to make the case in court either the government is 1) Treating them differently or 2) has no right to determine business A is more or less essential then business B.



Is it possible courts may be more inclined to accept those arguments?

Government almost never has to treat businesses the same, absent a protected class (government cannot favor Democratic businesses over Republican ones, or white businesses over black ones). The only exception is if there is no "rational basis" for the action, and under Williamson v. Lee Optical, almost anything the government says is a rational basis.

[dilanesp]

I guess "Gulfstream Park West" handled a lot more under that brand than "Calder". Think that is the extent of the research done on the feasibility of "Saratoga at Belmont"

Should be noted that Saratoga gets many shippers from out of state, including Kentucky. Without a cohesive schedule elsewhere before the meet starts, how can horses be ready to sustain similar field size to previous years?

FWIW this has been fairly common in horse racing over the years.

Tanforan at Bay Meadows
Oak Tree at Santa Anita / Hollywood Park / Pleasanton
Orange County Fair at Los Alamitos
HQHRA at Los Alamitos
Tropical Park at Calder

Etc.

[alhattab]

While I am enjoying reading this thread and everyone going back and forth about numbers they likely don't know, there is one thing we do know for sure.

Saratoga is the best meet in the country, and its not even close. Assuming the meet is run, customers will go out of their way to find and wager on it. 90% or more of that on track crowd, if there are no spectators, will find a way to play either on an ADW or other locations. Yes, some casual money will be lost but likely immaterial.

It is also laughable that Panza or any other executive there has no clue about the numbers. If it was even remotely true that the brand means nothing and having the same quality fields at Belmont or Aqueduct would result in about the same handle, why go upstate? Why incur all the costs to ship both office items and people, at a time when they have not been able to run for months, if it was not in their best financial interest? AND if they have no fans and miss out on all the non-parimutuel revenues like gate, F&B, ect, yet STILL want run upstate, what does that tell you?

Come on man! :D

Will be interesting to see how it plays out. So many uncertainties. I can tell you with near certainty that if I cannot visit Saratoga or my local venue, my own personal handle will decrease. It won't have anything to do necessarily with racing dynamics but other pandemic related matters. For example, if our Almighty Governor allows us to go to the beach but not the track, I will go to the beach. I play from there sometimes but not as zealously as I do when I'm at the track or dedicating to a day of playing races from home. Not to mention what happens with the $ I would have played during my 8 or so days on track- those days are completely dedicated to racing and almost exclusively (well, sort of) to Saratoga racing. Those $ are no longer dedicated to the Saratoga betting windows and are now in play for other uses.

Point is, I know insiders have lots of data that us layfolk don't have, and it certainly tells them more than we know. But this is a really difficult thing to model because of the dynamics and moving parts. Whatever happens, like i said in an earlier post, hopefully we never know who was "right" and who was "wrong" when it comes to staying at Belmont vs. migrating to the Spa because we never have anything to compare to!

[drib]

Wrong. There is absolutely no way you can assert that people will bet as much, or more, on Belmont than Saratoga. It is not based on anything factual or historical, but instead anecdotal evidence of two low-handling tracks that are the only games in town on certain days of the week during the height of the pandemic.

Panza made it very clear in the article that the per-starter handle at Saratoga blows what it is at Belmont out of the water. In a game that has suffered mightily in terms of popularity and performance, Saratoga is one brand that has actually gotten stronger over time.

Outside of the "Festival", Belmont's busiest day of the spring-summer meet is Stars and Stripes. The handle in 2018 was a record - $24.6 million. The card had 92 betting interests. Last year, the first Saturday at Saratoga was on July 13. The card had 88 betting interests. The handle? Over $28 million.

If there is racing, fans or not, it will be at Saratoga on July 16.

First off, the assumption here is that there would be no on track betting, thus comparing raw Belmont and Saratoga handle is fallacious. Using your comparisons, comparing off track handle last year at Belmont on Sat. July 6 ($23,045,545) to your chosen first Sat. at Saratoga ($23,808,942), I am not impressed. I did not mean to compare FP and WRD handle in any way to NYRA, but wanted to illustrate how simulcast players are an adjustable lot. I maintain that a NY bred NW/2 6f allow at Belmont on, say Aug.1, would handle OFF TRACK, a comparable sum to Saratoga, assuming the same horses, field size, etc. You (and Panza) must really have a low opinion of off track bettors to think there would be a marked difference. Now consider the millions that must be spent shipping horses and personnel (from a high viral area no less) to Saratoga, and, yes, it seems to me a no brainer to stay downstate.

[Clocker]

Saratoga is the best meet in the country, and its not even close. Assuming the meet is run, customers will go out of their way to find and wager on it. 90% or more of that on track crowd, if there are no spectators, will find a way to play either on an ADW or other locations. Yes, some casual money will be lost but likely immaterial.


I have no personal experience regarding Saratoga, but my impression is that the races are the center of a major social event for a lot of folks with a lot of money. Sitting in a box with food and drink and BS-ing and rooting for horses with your buddies is much different than sitting at your computer. I'd guess that being at the track and betting on horses are components of a big social experience for a lot of people.

I'm also guessing that those people don't post here. ;)

[Tom]

Since some people state they feel passionate about this issue, maybe you can explain (briefly) how they might start such court proceedings, i.e. for instance if somebody like Tom wanted to spearhead something like this.

The problem right now is that even some of the court systems, are mostly closed or only taking caseloads that are emergent. 34 states suspended in-person proceedings and 16 states suspended in-person proceedings on the local level that I can see.

I assume these cases would be brought at the state level where the tracks are located, right?

I would assume it would the responsibility of the track that wanted to run to take care of the court issues, not a patron.

I also assume the other guy doesn't know very much about the law or the courts! :lol:

[Tom]

I am taking that language right out of the relevant caselaw.

That is how the legal SYSTEM views your arguments. If the governor says there is an infectious disease and you have to stay home, that is binding because the right to assemble does not include the right to infect people.

Religion is the only partial exception that has been identified.

What caselaw ever supported MASS shut down of millions of people NOT INFECTED with anything?

Even during the AIDS outbreak, people with the disease could not be regulated like that.

Is you "caselaw" library Perry Mason reruns?

[Tom]

I am saying if the Governor says there is an infectious disease and there is one, he or she is deferred to by the courts. "Whim" is you spinning. Since nobody doubts the existence of the pandemic, this is not about whims and the Governor has plenary authority not only to close businesses, but even to close cities and lock people in their houses.

There is 175 years of caselaw on this. There may be a partial exception for the exercise of religion, but that is it.

You talk as if that is the same in all 50 states.
This is NOT a Fed issue - Fed do not grant Governors power. States do. And they all do it differently.

[Redboard]

FWIW this has been fairly common in horse racing over the years.

Tanforan at Bay Meadows
Oak Tree at Santa Anita / Hollywood Park / Pleasanton
Orange County Fair at Los Alamitos
HQHRA at Los Alamitos
Tropical Park at Calder

Etc.

During World war 2, they suspended racing at Saratoga for a couple years and did run downstate in the summers, I believe it was at the refurbished Aqueduct. The reason they gave was due to rationing of gasoline. Plenty of gas available these days!

Not sure what the difference in handle was, which wouldn't matter because NY racing back then had huge attendance everywhere.

[Tom]

I am taking that language right out of the relevant caselaw.



So Saratoga is now in New Hampshire?

If anyone is truly interested in this area of law, track down the case of Binford v. Sununu. Libertarians in New Hampshire challenged the state's ban on gatherings of more than 50 people due to the coronavirus. The Court held review was limited to (1) a determination that the Governor believed in good faith that there was an emergency and (2) there was some factual basis for the Governor's conclusion.



List 5 cases, in NY, and quote a couple of them......

[Redboard]

While I am enjoying reading this thread and everyone going back and forth about n......

Saratoga is the best meet in the country, and its not even close. Assuming the meet is run, customers will go out of their way to find and wager on it. 90% or more of that on track crowd, if there are no spectators, will find a way to play either on an ADW or other locations. Yes, some casual money will be lost but likely immaterial.
….


You are exactly right. Not to mention better TV ratings on fox or nbc sports. I see the governor leaving this up to NYRA and the mayor of Saratoga Springs, it will be their call. Of course the governor will have to send 10,000 ventilators to the hospitals in Saratoga county!

[Tom]

The NFL is operating under the assumption they will most likely be playing games in empty stadiums. I think there is zero chance of any type of sporting event that will allow spectators until there is a vaccine. The fact that Saratoga is in New York makes the situation even worse as they have been impacted far more then any other state. There is no way people will be allowed to attend and horse tace in New York for awhile honestly.

No, NYC has been hit hard - the rest of the state is nowhere close, and that include Saratoga.

Nothing going on in NYC reflects the rest of the state.
So that would be a point to argue for going to Saratoga - less of a "hot spot" and several tracks have been running through the thick of it all with NO SERIOUS EFFECTS, which pretty much puts holes in any argument that it is not safe.

THAT is why we have courts.
This is not 1902 and everything is different now.

[Tom]

To be clear, TLG is a NYRA employee and is required by his employer to back up Panza.

That is the only reason he is saying this, as he is too smart to actually believe it.

BS. You are an ambulance chaser and it shows.

[the little guy]

Way to up the ol' "dick factor...."

Didn't think it was possible at this point.

I know, I know...TLG is a dick to you too...you're just a poor misunderstood Clarence Darrow.

I’m trying to figure out how in one post, according to the expert and all topics not just racing related, Martin was “very stupid” to make the comments he did while in another I was required by NYRA to back up those same “stupid” remarks.

Do we think that kind of inference works in the court room?

On another note....Clarence Darrow!!!!:lol::lol:

[AndyC]

.... Now consider the millions that must be spent shipping horses and personnel (from a high viral area no less) to Saratoga, and, yes, it seems to me a no brainer to stay downstate.

Given the data from NYC showing a dramatic decrease of hospitalizations and deaths it would appear that NYC will be a low viral area within days. It would seem to be a no brainer that a person who hadn't been infected with the virus would be better off staying downstate and not risk the higher viral area upstate. Of course by the time Saratoga is due to open both areas will be low viral and it will be hard to justify not allowing fans.

[Clocker]

Of course by the time Saratoga is due to open both areas will be low viral and it will be hard to justify not allowing fans.


Hard for NY politicians? :lol:

We don't need no stinking justifying.

[drib]

Given the data from NYC showing a dramatic decrease of hospitalizations and deaths it would appear that NYC will be a low viral area within days. It would seem to be a no brainer that a person who hadn't been infected with the virus would be better off staying downstate and not risk the higher viral area upstate. Of course by the time Saratoga is due to open both areas will be low viral and it will be hard to justify not allowing fans.

I just do not understand this logic. Yes, there is a "dramatic decrease", but that is only b/c the NYC area is under a once in a millennia total lockdown. This is no victory; the virus is still out there, and modern medicine has no better weapons today (before a patient gets seriously ill) than 100 years ago with the Spanish Flu. Unfortunately, everyone will be holding their breath when NYC restrictions are lifted.To assume "both areas will be low viral" by mid July is wishful thinking. I, for one, would not go near a crowded subway car (more than 50 MTA workers have died to date) till next year at best.

[AndyC]

I just do not understand this logic. Yes, there is a "dramatic decrease", but that is only b/c the NYC area is under a once in a millennia total lockdown. This is no victory; the virus is still out there, and modern medicine has no better weapons today (before a patient gets seriously ill) than 100 years ago with the Spanish Flu. Unfortunately, everyone will be holding their breath when NYC restrictions are lifted.To assume "both areas will be low viral" by mid July is wishful thinking. I, for one, would not go near a crowded subway car (more than 50 MTA workers have died to date) till next year at best.

I guess I don't understand your logic. If there was such a total lockdown why wouldn't the hospitalizations and deaths have stopped much sooner? There have been so many people infected in NYC (despite the lockdown) that herd immunity is beginning to happen. The curve for hospitalizations and deaths mirror those of countries with no lockdowns.

[cj]

I guess I don't understand your logic. If there was such a total lockdown why wouldn't the hospitalizations and deaths have stopped much sooner? There have been so many people infected in NYC (despite the lockdown) that herd immunity is beginning to happen. The curve for hospitalizations and deaths mirror those of countries with no lockdowns.

Most places don't have people crammed in like NYC which has to be a big factor.

Do we know you can't get it again? I think that is still up in the air as some certainly have. That will probably turn out to be the vast minority but we don't really know yet.

[dilanesp]

What caselaw ever supported MASS shut down of millions of people NOT INFECTED with anything?

Even during the AIDS outbreak, people with the disease could not be regulated like that.

Is you "caselaw" library Perry Mason reruns?

The Supreme Court has affirmed (1) mass vaccination of people who did not have smallpox and (2) prohibiting anyone from entering a cordon sanitaire around a town in Louisiana.

Lower courts have affirmed mass social distancing orders and quarantines (which resulted in businesses shutting down), both during the current crisis and also in past epidemics.

[AndyC]

Most places don't have people crammed in like NYC which has to be a big factor.

Do we know you can't get it again? I think that is still up in the air as some certainly have. That will probably turn out to be the vast minority but we don't really know yet.

There is no evidence that people who had supposedly gotten it again had fully recovered from their initial infection. Plus there hasn't been a coronavirus that didn't produce herd immunity. Do we have 100% certainty? No, but I will take this 1/9 shot against the field.

[dilanesp]

You talk as if that is the same in all 50 states.
This is NOT a Fed issue - Fed do not grant Governors power. States do. And they all do it differently.

While there are differences in state practice, there aren't any relevant differences. Every state gives its governor close to plenary power to declare and enforce orders during a state of emergency.

List 5 cases, in NY, and quote a couple of them......

Unless New York has a statute that limits Gov. Cuomo's powers, that's an uninformed take.

The due process clause doesn't apply any differently in NY than it does in New Hampshire.

[dilanesp]

During World war 2, they suspended racing at Saratoga for a couple years and did run downstate in the summers, I believe it was at the refurbished Aqueduct. The reason they gave was due to rationing of gasoline. Plenty of gas available these days!

Not sure what the difference in handle was, which wouldn't matter because NY racing back then had huge attendance everywhere.

In those days, attendance downstate was probably much higher than attendance upstate.

Saratoga as a phenomenon is actually somewhat recent (1970's forward). For decades Aqueduct and Belmont outdrew them.

[AndyC]

While there are differences in state practice, there aren't any relevant differences. Every state gives its governor close to plenary power to declare and enforce orders during a state of emergency.

When does a state of emergency end? At the whim of the governor?

[cj]

There is no evidence that people who had supposedly gotten it again had fully recovered from their initial infection. Plus there hasn't been a coronavirus that didn't produce herd immunity. Do we have 100% certainty? No, but I will take this 1/9 shot against the field.

I'd agree, that is why I said even if not it would be the vast minority. I equate that to 1/9. :)

[drib]

I guess I don't understand your logic. If there was such a total lockdown why wouldn't the hospitalizations and deaths have stopped much sooner? There have been so many people infected in NYC (despite the lockdown) that herd immunity is beginning to happen. The curve for hospitalizations and deaths mirror those of countries with no lockdowns.

Herd immunity requires upwards of 50-60% of the population to have been infected, and developed antibodies (assuming that antibodies are effective, which is not yet certain). Right now, even the most generous estimates place NYC way, way below that # (at best 5-10%). You cannot just turn off the faucet and watch a quick stoppage of infection. There is at least a 14-21 day lag, given the incubation period, and NYC, like many European countries, was never in a total lockdown; example: the subways have never stopped running. Countries have used various methods to fight the virus, and some, like Germany, were able to use widespread testing and advanced epidemiologic techniques that the USA missed out on. I am unaware of any country that has had success without, either lockdowns, or much better, and earlier applied methods. Sweden is mentioned as a nation that went "light', but check out their death toll (2274), compared to Finland (191), and Norway (205).

[dilanesp]

I’m trying to figure out how in one post, according to the expert and all topics not just racing related, Martin was “very stupid” to make the comments he did while in another I was required by NYRA to back up those same “stupid” remarks.

Do we think that kind of inference works in the court room?



What inference? A high ranking official in the agency you work for made public statements regarding the plans of the agency you work for. Of course you are in no position, as a public spokesperson and television personality, to contradict him.

I am not an expert on all topics not just racing related. If you come in here and do a post on ballet, or UFC, or organic chemistry, I won't know a thing.

But I do know something about how speaking on behalf of an agency works. And no, there's no way you are ever going to come on PA and contradict something Martin Panza says on behalf of NYRA.

[dilanesp]

When does a state of emergency end? At the wim of the governor?

You and PA keep on saying "whim". Nobody's acting based on "whims" here.

A state of emergency ends when state law says it ends, which usually is left to the informed discretion of the governor.

[AndyC]

You and PA keep on saying "whim". Nobody's acting based on "whims" here.

A state of emergency ends when state law says it ends, which usually is left to the informed discretion of the governor.

You beg the question. When does state law say it ends? Discretion of the governor sounds like a dictatorship.

[Clocker]

the informed discretion of the governor.


Which is political double-talk for "whim". :rolleyes:

[drib]

You beg the question. When does state law say it ends? Discretion of the governor sounds like a dictatorship.

Read the tea leaves....Cuomo just cancelled the June 24 NY primary, yet some imagine that less than 3 weeks later, he will sanction a caravan of a couple of thousand travelers from Elmont (heart of viral disease) to Saratoga. Oklahoma is still not open, and they have cancelled the August Saratoga yearling sales.

[AndyC]

Herd immunity requires upwards of 50-60% of the population to have been infected, and developed antibodies (assuming that antibodies are effective, which is not yet certain). Right now, even the most generous estimates place NYC way, way below that # (at best 5-10%). You cannot just turn off the faucet and watch a quick stoppage of infection. There is at least a 14-21 day lag, given the incubation period, and NYC, like many European countries, was never in a total lockdown; example: the subways have never stopped running. Countries have used various methods to fight the virus, and some, like Germany, were able to use widespread testing and advanced epidemiologic techniques that the USA missed out on. I am unaware of any country that has had success without, either lockdowns, or much better, and earlier applied methods. Sweden is mentioned as a nation that went "light', but check out their death toll (2274), compared to Finland (191), and Norway (205).

NY has done testing in NYC and found 21.2% had already had the virus.

Checkout any country's death toll and you will find that 95%+ of the deaths were vulnerable people due to age and co-morbidities. With a significantly reduced population infected and a very good understanding of who is vulnerable, I think we're smart enough to get on with life, including fan attended racing, without creating a disaster.

[AndyC]

Read the tea leaves....Cuomo just cancelled the June 24 NY primary, yet some imagine that less than 3 weeks later, he will sanction a caravan of a couple of thousand travelers from Elmont (heart of viral disease) to Saratoga. Oklahoma is still not open, and they have cancelled the August Saratoga yearling sales.

That wasn't my question. I am fully aware that decisions will be made now that
may look incredibly unnecessary down the road.

[Jeff P]

NY has done testing in NYC and found 21.2% had already had the virus.

Checkout any country's death toll and you will find that 95%+ of the deaths were vulnerable people due to age and co-morbidities. With a significantly reduced population infected and a very good understanding of who is vulnerable, I think we're smart enough to get on with life, including fan attended racing, without creating a disaster.

Right.

But that's not the Governor's whim. :rolleyes:


-jp

.

[the little guy]

NY has done testing in NYC and found 21.2% had already had the virus.



While I don't think anyone would be shocked if those numbers were true, or even low, that test may not have been overly reliable.

[AndyC]

While I don't think anyone would be shocked if those numbers were true, or even low, that test may not have been overly reliable.

There is debate about the overall accuracy of the tests for the infection and also for the antibodies. Because the numbers for the antibodies were so much higher in NYC than upstate I would have to believe that the relative results would have to have some value.

[the little guy]

There is debate about the overall accuracy of the tests for the infection and also for the antibodies. Because the numbers for the antibodies were so much higher in NYC than upstate I would have to believe that the relative results would have to have some value.

That's fair.

[drib]

NY has done testing in NYC and found 21.2% had already had the virus.

Checkout any country's death toll and you will find that 95%+ of the deaths were vulnerable people due to age and co-morbidities. With a significantly reduced population infected and a very good understanding of who is vulnerable, I think we're smart enough to get on with life, including fan attended racing, without creating a disaster.

I have not checked, but my guess is you were buying that stuff about hydrochloroquine a few weeks ago (notice how that has drooped out of sight). Fox and other right wing sites latch onto little bits and roll forth. "21.2% already had the virus" is based upon one study with huge flaws (and even then, that # is far away from herd immunity). The study was not random, as it selected people who were out and about, thus far more likely to have had viral exposure than the population which stayed home; in addition, b/c antibody tests have not been cleared by the FDA (in an understandable rush to get them out), there are questions, in particular about high false positive rates, which render small study results questionable. The Stanford and USC studies have also come under question. We will get much more definite information in the next few weeks, especially from an antibody test of a large portion of Iceland's population, but your blithe assumptions about the high rate of exposure leading to quick herd immunity (and your assumption that antibodies work vs this virus) would not be ratified by any responsible medical expert (sort of like looking for UV light and bleach as ways out of the viral jam). You should acknowledge that this virus is once in hundred year phenomena. Consider that over 100 Italian doctors have died....This ain't the flu.

[AndyC]

I have not checked, but my guess is you were buying that stuff about hydrochloroquine a few weeks ago (notice how that has drooped out of sight). Fox and other right wing sites latch onto little bits and roll forth. "21.2% already had the virus" is based upon one study with huge flaws (and even then, that # is far away from herd immunity). The study was not random, as it selected people who were out and about, thus far more likely to have had viral exposure than the population which stayed home; in addition, b/c antibody tests have not been cleared by the FDA (in an understandable rush to get them out), there are questions, in particular about high false positive rates, which render small study results questionable. The Stanford and USC studies have also come under question. We will get much more definite information in the next few weeks, especially from an antibody test of a large portion of Iceland's population, but your blithe assumptions about the high rate of exposure leading to quick herd immunity (and your assumption that antibodies work vs this virus) would not be ratified by any responsible medical expert (sort of like looking for UV light and bleach as ways out of the viral jam). You should acknowledge that this virus is once in hundred year phenomena. Consider that over 100 Italian doctors have died....This ain't the flu.

There are Doctors who have had great success with hydroxychloroquine and are still using it, jury is still out.

The 21.2% test was ordered and done for the governor of NY. He and his advisors apparently thought enough of the test to have it done. Yes it selected people out and about the same kinds of people who will be out and about most of the time. That's where you would want herd immunity to happen.

There have been questions not only of false positives but also false negatives. Why is an antibody test in Iceland better than one in NY?

UV light is not good? Are you saying it won't kill the virus? Are you saying that it won't help a person increase their vitamin D levels?

A once in 100 year phenomena? 1956-58 Asian Flu killed 2 million people. 1968 Hong Kong Flu killed 1 million people. Aids pandemic 36 million dead. You are right it ain't the flu yet.

[drib]

There are Doctors who have had great success with hydroxychloroquine and are still using it, jury is still out.

The 21.2% test was ordered and done for the governor of NY. He and his advisors apparently thought enough of the test to have it done. Yes it selected people out and about the same kinds of people who will be out and about most of the time. That's where you would want herd immunity to happen.

There have been questions not only of false positives but also false negatives. Why is an antibody test in Iceland better than one in NY?

UV light is not good? Are you saying it won't kill the virus? Are you saying that it won't help a person increase their vitamin D levels?

A once in 100 year phenomena? 1956-58 Asian Flu killed 2 million people. 1968 Hong Kong Flu killed 1 million people. Aids pandemic 36 million dead. You are right it ain't the flu yet.

At this stage anyone who says "the jury is still out" on hydrochloroquine is ready to endorse indian medicine dances at foot of virus patient's bed. Studies now, the latest from Brazil, have shown this drug, when used, increases the death rate, in virus patients. The FDA is now cautioning against its use.

Here is an article quoting Cuomo being very careful in discussing the NY test: https://www.livescience.com/covid-antibody-test-results-new-york-test.html

Key paragraph.....These tests were conducted over a two-day period at grocery stores and other big box stores. "The sample was by definition people who were outside the home," Cuomo said. "So we have to analyze that, what does that do to the numbers." These weren't people who were home, isolated or quarantined, Cuomo said. "What does that mean, I don't know. "People who tend to stay home likely have lower rates of infection, he added.

[AndyC]

At this stage anyone who says "the jury is still out" on hydrochloroquine is ready to endorse indian medicine dances at foot of virus patient's bed. Studies now, the latest from Brazil, have shown this drug, when used, increases the death rate, in virus patients. The FDA is now cautioning against its use.

Here is an article quoting Cuomo being very careful in discussing the NY test: https://www.livescience.com/covid-antibody-test-results-new-york-test.html

Key paragraph.....These tests were conducted over a two-day period at grocery stores and other big box stores. "The sample was by definition people who were outside the home," Cuomo said. "So we have to analyze that, what does that do to the numbers." These weren't people who were home, isolated or quarantined, Cuomo said. "What does that mean, I don't know. "People who tend to stay home likely have lower rates of infection, he added.

You would think with such hard evidence that the FDA would have just outright banned it. Go figure, maybe they think the jury is still out too. I have no horse in this race so I really don't care how it turns out. I have heard several doctors interviewed who have had amazing success with the drug.

I have watched Cuomo's news conferences. Nothing new here.

"The sample was by definition people who were outside the home". Please read my last reply to you because I covered this exact issue.

[drib]

You would think with such hard evidence that the FDA would have just outright banned it. Go figure, maybe they think the jury is still out too. I have no horse in this race so I really don't care how it turns out. I have heard several doctors interviewed who have had amazing success with the drug.

I have watched Cuomo's news conferences. Nothing new here.

"The sample was by definition people who were outside the home". Please read my last reply to you because I covered this exact issue.

You parrot these half baked ideas, yet lack understanding. Hydrochloroquin and its cousins are approved drugs for the treatment of malaria, lupus and some forms of rheumatoid arthritis. The FDA cannot "just outright ban" such an approved drug from what is called an off label use. The most the FDA can do is issue a warning such as they did a few days ago. What will happen is that, with each successive confirming study, physicians will come to realize that there is zero scientific (non anecdotal) evidence that the drug is effective against the virus, and more evidence it can cause harm. At some point, the danger of malpractice lawsuits arises, and it is no legal defense to cite the sayings of Dr. Trump. This is not just a left right issue, as last month Cuomo had some good things to say about hydrochloroquin. NY state launched the largest study of the drug's possible antiviral use a few weeks ago. It was completed last week, with results sent to Washington. Strangely, everyone, from Cuomo to Republicans, has been mum about the results, despite multiple questions from reporters. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/hydroxychloroquine-new-york-study-results-unreleased/index.html
The next day, Cuomo finally fessed up that the study showed the drug "didn't really have much effect on the recovery rate" https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/23/health/hydroxychloroquine-new-york-coronavirus-study/index.html Note there is still no official word on the results of this important study which is no surprise when politics gets mixed into medicine.

[PaceAdvantage]

Troll on my man...troll on

[clicknow]

This is not just a left right issue, as last month Cuomo had some good things to say about hydrochloroquin

You are correct--- not a left/right issue--- since that Dem rep who was given hydro claims she got well on it.

But w/out a controlled study, we do not know if people would have gotten well on their own anyway. Seems like 24 hours of having this virus people experience rather wild, crazy and unexpected twists and turns.

Seemingly well people who seem to be getting better die, and really sick ones turn a corner almost miraculously. I think there's been every possible combination and permutation of surprising outcomes with this thing.

One of the saddest side-effects of all this covid stuff is that it's been turned into a left/right issue though. I'm glad you brought that up.

[PaceAdvantage]

You are correct--- not a left/right issue--- since that Dem rep who was given hydro claims she got well on it.

But w/out a controlled study, we do not know if people would have gotten well on their own anyway. Seems like 24 hours of having this virus people experience rather wild, crazy and unexpected twists and turns.

Seemingly well people who seem to be getting better die, and really sick ones turn a corner almost miraculously. I think there's been every possible combination and permutation of surprising outcomes with this thing.

One of the saddest side-effects of all this covid stuff is that it's been turned into a left/right issue though. I'm glad you brought that up.It's not a right or left issue, but the drib troll had to throw in FOX NEWS & right-wing in his reply.

QAnon is feeling left out at this point...his loss I guess.

[clicknow]

It's not a right or left issue, but the drib troll had to throw in FOX NEWS & right-wing in his reply.

Yeah --- kinda disingenous to state this not a left or right issue, while proceeding to engage in what does look like "partisan politics" in the rest of their reply.

At any rate, we don't do partisan politics on this part of the forum anyway, so topics shouldn't go there in the first place, here. Maybe poster is unaware of that rule and can be invited to fight it out down in General. ;).

[drib]

It's not a right or left issue, but the drib troll had to throw in FOX NEWS & right-wing in his reply.

QAnon is feeling left out at this point...his loss I guess.

I mention Fox with good reason. In a 2 week period, the network pumped hydrochloroquin over 300 times:
https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/fox-news-has-promoted-hydroxychloroquine-nearly-300-times-two-week-period

Now, of course, there are no corrections, and all we get are crickets:https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/fox-news-silent-trump-coronavirus-drug-hydroxychloroquine

[PaceAdvantage]

I mention Fox with good reason. In a 2 week period, the network pumped hydrochloroquin over 300 times:
https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/fox-news-has-promoted-hydroxychloroquine-nearly-300-times-two-week-period

Now, of course, there are no corrections, and all we get are crickets:https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/fox-news-silent-trump-coronavirus-drug-hydroxychloroquineI noticed how hard everyone worked to try and downplay the hydro stuff cause TRUMP talked about it...

Meanwhile...this article dated yesterday lists at least five ongoing studies/trials on Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine (from NIH to hospitals to universities)....why would they be wasting time with these trials if, as you say, it's a complete failure with nothing but crickets heard around town?

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/27/tracking-the-hunt-for-coronavirus-drugs-and-vaccines-211416

[lamboguy]

I mention Fox with good reason. In a 2 week period, the network pumped hydrochloroquin over 300 times:
https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/fox-news-has-promoted-hydroxychloroquine-nearly-300-times-two-week-period

Now, of course, there are no corrections, and all we get are crickets:https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/fox-news-silent-trump-coronavirus-drug-hydroxychloroquinethey never said to down disinfectant into your body or stick an ultraviolet light down your throat or up your rear end. but they are the fake news dead heated with MSNBC,

for the record, Mike Pence has done a great job through this whole ordeal along with Cuomo. there are people that look forward to hearing the 2 hour press conferences with Trump just to get a good laugh through this. i know i was one of them, he is very entertaining.

interesting note, when Trump stopped speaking his odds went down, he spoke monday and the odds bolted up higher.

[lamboguy]

I have not checked, but my guess is you were buying that stuff about hydrochloroquine a few weeks ago (notice how that has drooped out of sight). Fox and other right wing sites latch onto little bits and roll forth. "21.2% already had the virus" is based upon one study with huge flaws (and even then, that # is far away from herd immunity). The study was not random, as it selected people who were out and about, thus far more likely to have had viral exposure than the population which stayed home; in addition, b/c antibody tests have not been cleared by the FDA (in an understandable rush to get them out), there are questions, in particular about high false positive rates, which render small study results questionable. The Stanford and USC studies have also come under question. We will get much more definite information in the next few weeks, especially from an antibody test of a large portion of Iceland's population, but your blithe assumptions about the high rate of exposure leading to quick herd immunity (and your assumption that antibodies work vs this virus) would not be ratified by any responsible medical expert (sort of like looking for UV light and bleach as ways out of the viral jam). You should acknowledge that this virus is once in hundred year phenomena. Consider that over 100 Italian doctors have died....This ain't the flu.if the government had closed down all international flights coming into this country in February, we would not be debating whether its Saratoga at Belmont or Saratoga at Saratoga. we wouldn't have had all these business's closed down either. and we wouldn't have been stuck in our homes for 2 months already.

they did shut down flights coming from the far east by the end of January. so they did know back then there was a big problem. i am sure they could have figured out that the Chinese were going to sneak in from other places. so instead of shutting down the flights we went into a useless depression that will be worse than the one in the 1930's and probably last longer.

i truly feel bad for the people that work or own restaurants they gave their hearts and soles to make people happy. the government ruined those peoples lives. it could have been prevented easily.

[drib]

they never said to down disinfectant into your body or stick an ultraviolet light down your throat or up your rear end. but they are the fake news dead heated with MSNBC,

for the record, Mike Pence has done a great job through this whole ordeal along with Cuomo. there are people that look forward to hearing the 2 hour press conferences with Trump just to get a good laugh through this. i know i was one of them, he is very entertaining.

interesting note, when Trump stopped speaking his odds went down, he spoke monday and the odds bolted up higher.

I disagree with your views on both Pence and Cuomo. Cuomo joined with DeBlasio (semi-commie) in downplaying the viral threat in early March. Studies indicate their delay in implementing rigorous lockdown procedures cost lives: https://ny.eater.com/2020/4/8/21213598/nyc-coronavirus-warnings-deblasio-cuomo-nytimes.
March 9 Pence said: "Over a million tests have been distributed, and "before the end of this week, another 4 million tests will be distributed.".:Today he was asked why now, many weeks later, we are just approaching that level of testing. Here is the whole exchange from today's news conference:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQRKNDuEogo
His answer was some piece of work. He says there was a "misunderstanding" b/c back in March, he was not referring to tests which actually worked, and could produce results.
Sadly, with some exceptions (Washington, Ohio, California), we have been let down by many public officials, and not one of these clowns will ever admit a mistake.

[PaceAdvantage]

No matter what the politicians did it wasn't going to make much of a difference.

The virus was already out in the communities. The antibody tests making the rounds currently are going to prove that without a doubt.

When LA County was saying they had 8,000 cases, it was more like 150,000-300,000 cases.

When NY was saying it had 150-200,000 cases, it was more like 2-3 million.

So, bottom line, all this was designed to try and prevent the healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed, and it seems to have done its job.

These lockdowns were never designed to PREVENT people from catching the virus in the long term. They were never designed to last 3-4 months.

They were initially designed to last a few weeks to a month....tops.

But now the bar keeps getting pushed back...why?

The virus has already worked its way through a solid portion of the US population.

Anyway, since people can't help themselves, I must close this thread.

Sorry.